This is a two horse race: Braun and Tulowitzki. We can give a nod to Lincecum, or Gallardo, but Braun and Tulowitzki are every day players on teams that were in contention. Maybe I should pay more attention to James Loney, but he doesn't really have a shot, does he?
Expect Braun to win it, followed by Tulowitzki and Chris Young. Chris Young, while holding a large amount of potential, should not finish higher than the five guys named above. Thirty-two homers is great, but a .295 OBA and .762 OPS is not.
Win Shares
Tulowitzki earned 25 win shares, and a ton of that came with his glove. He was the best defensive player in all of baseball, at any position. His offensive winning percentage was .668
Braun earned 22 win shares. His offensive winning percentage was .816. For all the talk of him playing only a portion of the season, he still had 492 PAs. Tulowitzki had 682. If Braun had 682 PAs, he'd be headed for 30 win shares.
Advantage: Braun
WARP
Tulowitzki earned 8.3 in WARP, a top 10 performance in the league. Again, he saved more runs at his position than any other player at any position.
Braun earned 4.4 in WARP. If Braun had 682 PAs, he'd be headed for a 6.1. BP thinks he cost his team a ton of runs playing third. In fact, he cost his team almost as many runs (20) as Tulowitzki saved his team (23) when compared to an average player at their respective positions.
Advantage: Tulowitzki
VORP
This one doesn't take into account defense. Tulowitzki gets a 37.8. Braun a 57.2, in fewer plate appearances.
Advantage: Braun, of course, since a big part of Tulowitzki's case is defense.
Sept/Oct OPS
Again, no defense involved, but I want to see who did a better job of helping his team make the postseason.
Tulowitzki put up an OPS of .910. Braun put up a .998.
Advantage: None. A .910 at short is at least as good as, and maybe better, than a .998 at third base. Nothing to sneeze at either way.
OPS vs. Main Rivals
Tulowitzki had a .646 OPS against the D-Backs, and a .653 against the Padres.
Braun put up a 1.071 OPS against the Cubs, and a 1.044 against the Cardinals.
Advantage: Braun
***
When I started this post, I was prepared to give Tulowitzki the ROY award because he plays a key defensive position, and plays it incredibly well. However, the last stat...how each player fared against the division rival clubs, sealed it for Braun in my mind. Although the Brewers didn't make the post-season, Braun certainly did more than his share against the rival Cubs and Cards. The Rockies had to carry Troy during those key games.
NL ROY = Ryan Braun, with Tulowitzki second, Gallardo third* and Lincecum and Loney tied for fourth.
*Interestingly, Gallardo has a higher WARP score than Braun!
