The Predict-a-Matic unfortunately predicts a Boston championship, 4 games to 1. It predicts that Colorado wins game 4. Colorado also has a good shot in game 3, so it could go 6 games.
Some notes. I have assumed the same lineups in games 1 and 2. In games 3 and 4, I put Ortiz at first and hit Ellsbury in the 2d spot. In game 5, Youkilis gets the start at 1b and hits in Ortiz' spot (3rd).
Game 1: Beckett has a strong outing, striking out 6 and allowing only 2 runs on 6 hits in about 6 2/3 innings. There's about a 1/3 chance Beckett will strike out at least 9 batters. Francis fails to make it through 6 innings, and gives up at least 4 runs, with about a 1/3 chance of giving up more than 5 runs. Neither pitcher walks a significant number of batters (Beckett 1; Francis 2)
Boston wins by a score of something like 7-4. I give Colorado a 25% chance of winning this one.
Game 2: Schilling goes about 6 innings and gives up 3 runs, with a walk and 4 strikeouts. Theres a 1/3 chance he gives up 4 runs or more. Jimenez also gives up 3, but does not make it out of the 5th inning, walking three and striking out 4. There's a 1/4 chance he gives up 5 runs or more.
Boston wins by a score of 6-4 or 6-5. I give Colorado a 30% chance of winning this one.
Game 3: Matsuzaka goes 6 and gives up 3 runs on 6 hits, but there's a 40% chance of 4 runs or more, and a 1/4 chance of 5 runs or more. He walks 3 and strikes out 7. Fogg goes a little more than 5 innings, walking 3 and striking out 3. He gives up at least 3 runs, but there's a 50/50 chance of more than that, and a better than 1/4 chance he'll give up more than 5 runs.
Boston wins in a high scoring affair 6-5 or 7-5. I give Colorado a 45% chance of winning this one. This could be the game that results in a 6 game series instead of a 5 game series.
Game 4: Lester goes a little more than 5 innings, striking out 5 and walking 3, while giving up 3 runs. There's a 1/3 chance of 4 runs or more, and a 1/4 chance of giving up 5 runs or more. Cook goes 6 innings, gives up 7 hits and 3 runs. He walks 2 and strikes out 2. His chances of giving up 4 runs or more are about the same as Lester's.
Colorado wins 5-4 in a tight contest. Boston has a 45% chance of winning this one.
Game 5: Beckett repeats his game 1 performance, but is slightly better, with a few more strikeouts. Francis improves his game 1 performance (helped by Ortiz' absence), but not enough to win the contest.
Boston wins 4-3 or 5-4. Colorado has a 40% chance of winning this game.
Game 6 (maybe): With all the same lineups and back in Boston, the Predict-a-Matic won't stray far from game 2. Boston scores a few more runs, though, so Colorado gets a 33% chance of winning this one, if it gets that far.
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Beckett wins the MVP, though Mike Lowell will also play a big part. Taveras and Matsui kill Colorado at the plate. Atkins will be better than expected.
