Tuesday, October 16, 2007

AL Gold Gloves: Outfield

Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates for the outfield. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9).

Unlike the real voting process, I like to give the three gold gloves to three different outfield positions.



Outfield FWS FWAA

Crisp 8.5 2.6
Wells 6.4 -0.2
Granderson 6.3 2.0
Matthews 5.4 0.5
Cabrera 4.9 1.4
Rios 4.9 0.3
Teahen 4.0 1.3
Willits 3.5 1.0
Suzuki 3.3 1.5
Markakis 3.3 0.9
Cuddyer 3.1 0.3
Payton 2.8 0.7


Not many left fielders to choose from, and a couple of surprises. Teahen is a contender in right field, after a move from third base. Hard to trust Win Shares when Markakis is rated the same as Ichiro.

My guess is that Gary Matthews, Curtis Granderson and Torii Hunter win, though Suzuki may get the nod over Matthews.

Coco Crisp easily gets my Gold Glove in center. No one is close. In left, my only choices are Willits and Payton, and Willits is clearly better. Right is tight, between Rios and Teahen.

I'll resolve right field with the composite method (described in the NL Catcher's post), using 2.6 as the average fielding win shares for an outfielder.

Mark Teahen gets it. I guarantee you he won't win the real award (nor will Willits). Crisp at least has a shot.

Iron gloves to Jose Guillen in right field and Raul Ibanez in left field. You'd think Suzuki would be gobbling it up in center with those two statues flanking him. Jerry Owens (he plays for the White Sox), gets it in center field.