Tuesday, October 02, 2007

NL Gold Gloves: Outfield

Here are the NL Gold Glove candidates for the outfield. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9).

Unlike the real voting process, I like to give the three gold gloves to three different outfield positions.



Outfield FWS FWAA

Beltran 6.6 0.7
J.Jones 6.6 0.7
A.Jones 7.5 -0.1
C.Young 6.8 -1.0
Cameron 6.1 -0.4
Byrnes 6.3 1.6
Soriano 5.9 1.8
Francoeur 5.5 0.9
Rowand 5.1 0.8
Kearns 4.3 1.4
Holliday 4.0 1.6


Like Reyes, Beltran's numbers dropped significantly in the past 9 days. That will hurt him in the vote, and almost guarantees Andruw Jones a win. Francoeur has a good reputation too, but voters might be reluctant to approve two Braves. I see Cameron and Byrnes getting the other two spots.

It's a tough call, given the huge disagreements between the two systems. I saw Andruw play a lot, and there's no visible sign that his range is decreasing. I'll return to my composite method (described in the NL Catcher's post), using 2.6 as the average fielding win shares for an outfielder.

Beltran and Jacque Jones tie in centerfield. Because of Beltran's fielding collapse during the pennant race, Jacque Jones gets the center field gold glove. Byrnes gets it in left, edging Soriano. Francouer is an easy choice in right.

Iron gloves to Nate McLouth in center field, Josh Willingham in right field and Pat Burrell in left field. Imagine being a worse left fielder than Adam Dunn!