Thursday, October 04, 2007

Patient Hitters

Alfonso Soriano has all the talent in the world, but is not a patient hitter. In 617 plate appearances this year, Soriano faced a 3-0 or 3-1 count a measly 23 times, or 3.7%. He had a two strike count in 4 times as many plate appearances as he had a three ball count.

Chris Young, of the D-backs, has a similar reputation. In 624 plate appearances, he faced a 3-0 or 3-1 count only 40 times, or 6.4%. Even so, he faced a two strike count in 2.5 times as many plate appearances as he had a three ball count.

These are the leadoff hitters in the Cubs-Diamondbacks series. I questioned Soriano leading off in an earlier post, and using the lineup optimizer at Baseball Musings, determined that Mark DeRosa ought to be leading off, and Soriano ought to be hitting 4th or 6th.

Mark DeRosa, who has a good but not great OBP, had 574 plate appearances, and faced a 3-0 or 3-1 count 42 times, or 7.3%. Not that much better than Young, but quite a bit better than Soriano. His two strike to three ball ratio was about 2.0.

For comparison, let's try a few well-known patient hitters: David Ortiz, Albert Pujols and Barry Bonds (because he's a freak). The second number is the number of 3-0 and 3-1 counts. The third number is the percentage of plate appearances. The fourth number is the ratio of two strike counts to three ball counts.

Ortiz: 667 PAs; 88; 13.1%; 1.44
Pujols: 679 PAs; 103; 15.1%; 1.51
Bonds: 477 PAs; 106; 22.2%; 0.93