The Predict-a-Matic unfortunately predicts a Boston championship, 4 games to 1. It predicts that Colorado wins game 4. Colorado also has a good shot in game 3, so it could go 6 games.
The Predict-A-Matic did not foresee a sweep. Actually, the likelihood of a sweep was 13%. However, two of the games were one-run victories, including game 4, where it thought Colorado had the best chance. I'd give the Predict-A-Matic a "B-" in this category.
Some notes. I have assumed the same lineups in games 1 and 2. In games 3 and 4, I put Ortiz at first and hit Ellsbury in the 2d spot. In game 5, Youkilis gets the start at 1b and hits in Ortiz' spot (3rd).
The Ortiz assumption was good, but Ellsbury hit first, not second, in the Colorado games. The Rockies changed their lineup more significantly in the Colorado games, as explained below.
Game 1: Beckett has a strong outing, striking out 6 and allowing only 2 runs on 6 hits in about 6 2/3 innings. There's about a 1/3 chance Beckett will strike out at least 9 batters. Francis fails to make it through 6 innings, and gives up at least 4 runs, with about a 1/3 chance of giving up more than 5 runs. Neither pitcher walks a significant number of batters (Beckett 1; Francis 2)
Boston wins by a score of something like 7-4. I give Colorado a 25% chance of winning this one.
Beckett did have a strong outing, going 7 innings and allowing one run on 6 hits. He struck out 9 hitters. As predicted, Francis did not make it 6 innings (he went only 4) and the 1/3 chance of giving up more than 5 runs came true. He walked three instead of two.
No system will predict a 13-1 blowout, but the system did give the Rockies the least chance of winning this game. Overall, I'd give the Predict-A-Matic an "A" on this game.
Game 2: Schilling goes about 6 innings and gives up 3 runs, with a walk and 4 strikeouts. Theres a 1/3 chance he gives up 4 runs or more. Jimenez also gives up 3, but does not make it out of the 5th inning, walking three and striking out 4. There's a 1/4 chance he gives up 5 runs or more.
Boston wins by a score of 6-4 or 6-5. I give Colorado a 30% chance of winning this one.
Schilling did not pitch 6 innings (5 1/3), and he was better than predicted, giving up only 1 run. He had 2 walks instead of one, but the strikeouts were as rpedicted. Jimenez did not make it out of the fivth inning. He walked five and struck out only 2. However he only gave up two runs.
Boston won the game by one, but it was a low scoring affair. The Predict-A-Matic gets a "C" on this game. Maybe even a "C-".
Game 3: Matsuzaka goes 6 and gives up 3 runs on 6 hits, but there's a 40% chance of 4 runs or more, and a 1/4 chance of 5 runs or more. He walks 3 and strikes out 7. Fogg goes a little more than 5 innings, walking 3 and striking out 3. He gives up at least 3 runs, but there's a 50/50 chance of more than that, and a better than 1/4 chance he'll give up more than 5 runs.
Boston wins in a high scoring affair 6-5 or 7-5. I give Colorado a 45% chance of winning this one. This could be the game that results in a 6 game series instead of a 5 game series.
Dice-K didn't make it out of the sixth. He gave up 2 runs on three hits. He walked three and struck out five. Fogg did not make it out of the third inning, walking 2 and striking out two. He gave up 6 earned runs, which did not surprise the Predict-A-Matic.
It was a high scoring affair. Colorado had a chance after scoring three in the seventh, but Boston pulled away.
Note: Colorado altered its lineup, putting Matsui in the leadoff spot, Tulowitzki second and Sullivan eighth. Boston, as predicted, kept Ortiz in the lineup, but Ellsbury hit first instead of second. Plugging the actual lineup into the Predict-A-Matic would not have significantly changed the prediction, except that Colorado's chances of winning dropped to 40%.
The Predict-A-Matic was pretty weak on the pitching results, but pretty good on the game results: "C+".
Game 4: Lester goes a little more than 5 innings, striking out 5 and walking 3, while giving up 3 runs. There's a 1/3 chance of 4 runs or more, and a 1/4 chance of giving up 5 runs or more. Cook goes 6 innings, gives up 7 hits and 3 runs. He walks 2 and strikes out 2. His chances of giving up 4 runs or more are about the same as Lester's.
Colorado wins 5-4 in a tight contest. Boston has a 45% chance of winning this one.
Lester was much better than expected. He did walk three (and struck out only three), but he gave up no runs. Cook's prediction was almost perfect, except he gave up no walks.
Colorado lost 4-3, instead of winning 5-4, but as I mentioned, Boston was almost even money to win it. Even though it picked the wrong winner in a close contest, I still think the Predict-A-Matic did pretty well. Also, the bad Lester grade is offset by the excellent good Cook grade. I'll give game 4 a "B".
Note: More lineup changes for Colorado, where Spilborghs hit sixth and Hawpe was pushed to seventh. This would have made little difference. Lester's chances of having a horrible game decreased, but since he gave up no runs, it does not matter.
Game 5: Beckett repeats his game 1 performance, but is slightly better, with a few more strikeouts. Francis improves his game 1 performance (helped by Ortiz' absence), but not enough to win the contest.
Boston wins 4-3 or 5-4. Colorado has a 40% chance of winning this game.
This obviously never happened.
***
Beckett wins the MVP, though Mike Lowell will also play a big part. Taveras and Matsui kill Colorado at the plate. Atkins will be better than expected.
The Beckett MVP award was based on him pitching two games, which did not happen. However, Mike Lowell won the actual MVP award! I think Papelbon deserved it more, but nevertheless, the Predict-A-Matic pegged that one. Also Taveras did kill Colorado at the plate, but so did some other Rockies. Matsui was weak. Until their home runs, Hawpe and Atkins were weak. Predict-A-Matic gets a "B" here.
