Thursday, October 11, 2007

Should Taveras Lead Off in the NLCS

Willy Taveras has not been part of the Rockies' playoff run, but with a healed quad, he's back in the lineup. He's the starter, so I guess that's okay.

But should he hit 1st (his traditional spot), or 8th so as to not disrupt the lineup the Rockies have been using?

With tonight's lineup, the Baseball Musings Lineup Analyzer says the Rockies would average 5.417 runs per game. All the best lineups have Helton as the leadoff batter.

Switching Matsui to the leadoff spot, Tulowitzki to the second spot, and putting Taveras 7th (where Sullivan and Spilborghs have been hitting during the Rockies run), you get 5.395.

Is .022 runs meaningful? Not in a 7 game series. So Taveras is hitting first.

Should Spilborghs be playing, and hitting 7th instead? The lineup analyzer says 5.508. That's .095. Still not meaningful in a 7 game series, but when you consider that Taveras has not been part of the recent Rockies' successes, I'd go with Ryan over Willy.