Friday, October 05, 2007

AL MVP

I'll start with the AL awards with the AL MVP, since it is the easiest of the awards. A-Rod is going to win it, and should. This is really just to figure out who else had an MVP-type season.

Here are their Win Shares and their WARP1 scores from Baseball Prospectus, along with a few other candidates.


Player WS* WARP**

A-Rod 39 11.0
Posada 26 8.2
Jeter 24 6.2
Cano 21 9.0
Ordonez 36 9.2
Granderson 26 9.9
Polanco 23 8.2
Ortiz 29 8.2
Lowell 24 7.1
Suzuki 33 8.9
Putz 18 8.8
Guerrero 31 6.1
O.Cabrera 25 6.2
Lackey 22 9.3
Martinez 31 7.3
Sizemore 31 6.8
Sabathia 24 9.3
Carmona 22 9.5
B. Roberts 24 7.0
Pena 30 10.0


*Source: The Hardball Times
**Source: Baseball Prospectus

The first thing to notice is that I've included some pitchers on this list: Sabathia, Carmona and Lackey. That should nicely foreshadow the AL Cy Young.

The biggest disagreements between WS and WARP are with the middle infielders of the Yankees. WS puts Jeter slightly ahead. WARP puts Cano significantly ahead.

My pick is A-Rod of course, but here's a table with the composite scores, which I described in my NL Catcher's post, assuming the replacement WS for a player is 5.

Unlike the NL list, there are no rookies here.


Player Composite

A-Rod 67.0
Ordonez 58.6
Pena 55.0
Suzuki 54.7
Granderson 50.7
Ortiz 48.6
Martinez 47.9
Sabathia 46.9
Sizemore 46.4
Posada 45.6
Carmona 45.5
Lackey 44.9
Guerrero 44.3
Cano 43.0
Polanco 42.6
B. Roberts 40.0
Jeter 37.6


So Ordonez finishes second, clustered with the surprising Carlos Pena (comeback player of the year) and Ichiro. Granderson sneaks into the 5th spot. Sabathia is 8th -- the same position as Peavy finished in the NL MVP rankings.