But first, some traditional stats used in the Cy Young evaluation:
Pitcher Wins ERA SO
Beckett 20 3.27 194
Carmona 19 3.06 137
Lackey 19 3.01 179
Sabathia 19 3.21 209
Wang 19 3.70 104
Escobar 18 3.40 160
Verlander 18 3.66 183
Haren 15 3.07 192
Bedard 13 3.16 221
Santana 15 3.33 235
Only Beckett and Sabathia appear among the top 10 in all three of these categories, which means they will likely garner the majority of the Cy Young votes. Both are in the playoffs. I expect the vote to be close, but Beckett to win it for the big market Red Sox.
Pitcher VORP WARP WS
Sabathia 65.2 9.3 24
Carmona 64.0 9.5 22
Lackey 60.7 9.3 22
Beckett 58.6 8.3 19
Santana 57.7 9.3 18
Haren 56.4 7.7 19
Bedard 54.9 7.8 19
Escobar 49.9 7.8 18
Wang 48.5 7.2 16
Verlander 45.9 6.6 16
Lackey, Sabathia and Carmona are neck and neck in both systems. Sabathia is slightly ahead of Carmona, and they play on the same team. I'm going to do the same thing I did with the NL ROY analysis in deciding between Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki. I'm going to look at their numbers in August and September, and how they fared against their chief rivals the Tigers and Twins.
In August/September, Carmona went 6-3, with a 2.68 ERA, striking out 6.4 hitters per nine innings and allowing 10.1 baserunners per nine innings. Sabathia was 6-1, with a 2.87 ERA, striking out 8.3 hitters per nine and allowing 11.1 baserunners per nine. Hard to distinguish between them. Carmona had the better September, though, so I'm giving him the edge.
Against the Tigers and Twins, Carmona was 5-2, with a 2.40 ERA, striking out 5.7 hitters per nine and allowing 9.6 baserunners per nine. Sabathia was 7-2, with a 3.30 ERA, striking out 7.0 hitters per nine and allowing 10.7 baserunners per nine. Despite the record, Carmona has the edge here, particularly since Carmona fared much better against the Tigers, who were the real competition.
I'm frankly, shocked by this, but Carmona is ahead. I'm going to look at two other things: BP's "Luck" stat, and quality of batters faced.
Carmona's Luck was 3.84. Sabathia's Luck was 7.50. Higher means more lucky. Edge: Carmona.
Carmona faced opponents with an average OPS of .747. Sabathia faced opponents with an average OPS of .738. Interestingly, among AL pitchers with at least 150 IP, Sabathia faced the easiest opponents, and Carmona the third easiest. (Halladay faced the toughest competition, at .775). Edge: Carmona.
All signs point to Fausto Carmona, so he's my Cy Young winner, with Sabathia a very close second. I'm surprised.
Lackey gets the third spot. Beckett and Santana battle for the next spot, but Beckett comes in 4th because he carried the staff to the postseason. Santana edges Haren for the fifth spot.
