AL Gold Gloves: Catcher

Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates at catcher. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):

Catcher      FWS    FWAA
Suzuki      11.0     0.7
I-Rod        9.4     0.0
Mauer        9.2     0.7
J.Molina     9.1     1.8
Varitek      7.9     0.8
Navarro      7.3     2.2
Johjima      5.7     1.9

I'll assume for this post that an average fielding catcher would earn about 2.5 fielding win shares to get the composite score.

Wildly disparate results here. Suzuki has a huge lead in WS, followed by I-Rod and Mauer. The I-Rod rating is hard to believe, at his age. BP has Navarro at the top, followed by Molina. it sees Mauer and Suzuki as equal, and I-Rod as merely average.

Seems to me it has to come down to Molina and Navarro. Molina appears to have been better. I hate to give a GG to someone in a part time role, but if Molina saves more runs than Navarro, while playing half as often, shouldn't he be the guy?

Neither guy was a factor last year. Johjima beat Mauer. Johjima and Mauer don't deserve it this year, though I'd bet on Mauer getting the actual award.

How to decide? Last year Navarro was below average. Jose Molina last year was a positive defensive contributor, despite having almost NO playing time. He must be incredible. He's got the lineage. He gets my GG, followed by Navarro and Johjima.

Greg Zaun got the Iron last year. Since he can't hit, that's pretty bad. But he was average defensively this year. Not so Mike Napoli, who gets the Iron Glove. Ironic that the Angels are managed by one of the best defensive catchers of the 1980s. Scioscia ain't gonna care if Napoli keeps cranking 20 HR every 220 at bats. Get him 600 ABs and he'll lead the league in round trippers. Defense, shmeefense.

AL Gold Gloves: First Base

Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates at first base. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):

First base   FWS    FWAA
Overbay      3.8     1.9
Kotchman     3.0     1.2
Youkilis     2.8     0.3  (see note below on WS)
Pena         2.4     1.6
Millar       2.2     1.1

Last year I gave it to Youkilis, with Carlos Pena second in a nudge over Casey Kotchman. Kotchman got traded to the NL, but for my GG, he lands on the AL list.

I openly expressed distrust of WS at 1b, because Overbay and Matt Stairs were tied in WS, so I didn't trust the Overbay ranking. Like Delgado in the NL, here he is again. Every one of the guys on the list above was a contender last year too. I like that consistency.

Using the composite score method (see the NL Catcher's gold glove post), based on an average first baseman achieving 0.7 fielding win shares, Overbay easily wins, with Kotchman second. If we'd get rid of the stupid AL/NL distinction for stats purposes, they'd both win and Derrek Lee would have one less trophy.

Expect Youkilis or Pena to win the real one, since batting is always a factor. Pena would be the better choice. Youkilis played about 79% of his defensive time at 1b, so I had to prorate his WS.

Surprisingly, the Iron Glove last year almost went to Teixeira, who came close to a GG from me this year. But I gave the iron to Ryan Garko last year.

Garko improved a lot this year. Jason Giambi did not, and I thought he'd get the metal. But Miguel Cabrera outdistanced him in badness (and diet), so Miggy gets the Iron Glove.

NL Gold Gloves: First Base

Here are the NL Gold Glove candidates at first base. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):

First base   FWS    FWAA
Teixeira     2.8     1.0
D.Lee        2.7     1.7
Berkman      2.6     1.6
Delgado      2.4     0.9
A.Gonzalez   2.1     0.0
Pujols       2.1     1.4
Loney        2.0     0.0

I gave the Gold Glove to Pujols last year, with Helton finishing second. Derrek Lee was also a contender.

Derrek Lee is in his usual spot again, and we've otherwise got pretty much the same crew as last year, with Berkman and Loney added, and Helton off-list. Last year I was shocked that Delgado was a contender, but here he is again. Must not be a fluke.

For Gold Gloves, I'll place guys who split leagues in the league where they spent the most time. That means Teixeira's in the NL. He tops the WS list, but not FWAA.

Using the composite score method (see the NL Catcher's gold glove post), based on an average first baseman achieving 0.7 fielding win shares, Lee gets the hardware. Lance Berkman, he of the surprising athletic ability, finishes second.

Expect Lee to win it. No one is going to award a split league guy like Teixeira.

Last year's Iron Glove went to Dmitri Young. He didn't play enough this year. While my money would have been on the similarly sized Fielder, or Mike Jacobs, the Iron Glove goes to Adam LaRoche, who was pretty clearly the worst by these measures.

NL Gold Gloves: Catcher

Here are the NL Gold Glove candidates at catcher. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):

Catcher      FWS    FWAA
Kendall     11.9     1.7
B.Molina     9.2     0.9
Soto         9.0     0.6
Snyder       7.2     1.0
Y.Molina     6.6     1.1
Schneider    6.0     0.9
Iannetta     5.5     0.1
Ruiz         5.3     0.2
Martin       5.3     0.4

The most striking thing about this list is Jason Kendall at the top, and by a wide margin. Last year, he got my Iron Glove because he was terrible behind the plate, at least by these measures.

I'll assume for this post that an average fielding catcher would earn about 2.5 fielding win shares to get the composite score. But there's really no contest.

Last year, Yadier Molina edged out Chris Snyder and got my Gold Glove. This year the Gold Glove goes to last year's Iron Glove: Jason Kendall. Wow. Something isn't right about that, which isn't surprising since catcher defense is arguably unmeasurable. Benji comes in second.

Last year, Michael Barrett came in a close second for the Iron Glove. Fortunately for Barrett, he didn't play enough to qualify. (Yes, he would have won it again at his current pace). His teammate Josh Bard came close to 200 PAs, though. Maybe he should get it. But I give the Iron Glove to Washington's Jesus Flores. Even with 100 more PAs he wasn't as bad as Bard, but maybe Bard's sample size is too low? I'm being generous. At least Flores isn't a complete liability at the plate, like the San Diego contenders.

And maybe, just maybe, Flores will get the gold next year, just like Mr. Kendall.

AL and NL ROY

Last year I did these separately, but this year the choices seem so clear, I'm sticking them in one post. Last year's NL picks from me were: Braun, Tulowitzki, Gallardo, Lincecum and Loney. I did a detailed analysis of Braun and Tulo and chose Braun. It was a close call.

Last year's AL picks from me were: Dice-K, Pedroia, Bannister, Willits and Guthrie. (Wow, what happened to Willits?)

National League

Player       WS*   WARP**
Soto         24     4.3
Votto        20     5.3
Jurrjens     12     5.0
Kuroda       10     4.5

Very interesting that Soto comes in 4th among this group in WARP. Probably because of the defensive adjustment I make to the WARP score, which affects an important defensive player more than a first baseman or starting pitcher. WS sees it just the opposite.

I'll take them in the order listed above, with Soto nudging Votto. Soto was pretty consistent all year, and he's a catcher. Votto came on strong at the end, but was inconsistent earlier in the year.


American League

Player       WS*   WARP**
Longoria     20     6.4
Aviles       17     3.3
A. Ramirez   18     0.4
Chamberlain  10     4.3
Galarragga   14     5.9
Span         16     3.9
Masterson     8     3.9
Ellsbury     15     4.5
Ziegler      10     3.9

Well, BP doesn't like Ramirez much. Despite some good fantasy totals, he walked only 18 times in 500+ plate appearances, which pretty much makes him an out machine. BP also thinks his defense was bad. Could Kevin Kennedy have been wrong about him?

First place is easy, as expected. Longoria runs away with it. Galarraga, hidden on a bad Detroit team, comes in second, Ellsbury third and Denard Span is fourth. It will be interesting to see if BP is right about Ramirez. Ranked #2 in WS, but barely above replacement in WARP.

AL Cy Young

First, some traditional stats used in the Cy Young evaluation:

Pitcher       Wins   ERA    SO
C.Lee          22    2.54   170
Halladay       20    2.78   206
Lester         16    3.21   152
Matsuzaka      18    2.90   154
Danks          12    3.32   159
E. Santana     16    3.49   214
Saunders       17    3.41   103
Duchscherer    10    2.54    95
Baker          11    3.45   141
Greinke        13    3.47   183
Meche          14    3.98   183
Shields        14    3.56   160
Mussina        20    3.37   150

Although the top is very strong, it drops off veryquickly. You are probably wondering why Duchscherer made the list with only 10 wins and a half a season. See below. Really, however, this is between Lee and Halladay.

Pitcher       VORP    WS     WARP1
C.Lee         75.0    25      10.3
Halladay      71.5    23       9.7
Lester        58.2    19       7.8
Matsuzaka     50.6    17       7.7
Danks         52.8    17       8.4
E. Santana    50.3    19       7.3
Saunders      44.0    19       6.8
Duchscherer   46.1    14       6.4
Baker         44.4    13       5.4
Greinke       43.8    17       7.3
Meche         38.2    15       6.9
Shields       43.7    16       5.6
Mussina       43.1    18       8.5
Rivera        34.0    17      10.2 
K-Rod         22.3    12       7.5
Soria         30.1    15       7.6

These are ordered by VORP. Lee is the clear winner, with Halladay second.

Duchscherer is on the list because he is #8 in VORP. With half a season!

Danks' counting stats were not very impressive, but he fares well in all three of these uber-stats. Mussina gets a nostalgia point and gets #3, with Danks at #4. I don't entirely trust the uber-stats measurement of relievers, at least not on the same basis as the starters. Rivera comes in fifth.

Let this also be a lesson in counting stats for relievers -- particularly saves. K-Rod's "real" season was no big deal. In his own league Rivera, Soria and Nathan were better across the board.

AL MVP

Last year A-Rod was an easy choice, and I had Magglio and Carlos Pena second and third. A-Rod had a "down year" -- at least in A-Rod terms -- and there are a lot of contenders challenging him for the award.

Here are the Win Shares and their WARP1 scores from Baseball Prospectus for this year's candidates.

Player      WS*   WARP**
Guerrero    24    4.5
Teixeira    30    8.7
Huff        23    6.3
Roberts     21    5.0
Markakis    25    6.2
Pedroia     26    6.3
Youkilis    29    7.0
Bay         25    4.5
Quentin     24    6.2
Sizemore    28    5.4    
Granderson  21    5.2
Mauer       31    6.9
Morneau     29    7.3
A-Rod       25    7.2
Damon       25    5.0
Hamilton    27    5.7
Bradley     21    6.8
Kinsler     26    5.4
Cliff Lee   25   10.3
Halladay    23    9.7
M.Rivera    17   10.2 

*Source: The Hardball Times
**Source: Baseball Prospectus. I use FRAA, instead of FRAR, so the WARP1 number is converted. That hurts some players more than others. For instance, it takes 3.5 WARP away from Dustin Pedroia, since he is way better than replacement, but just a little above average.

The ones who stand out the most are pitchers, who are technically eligible, but from whom I shy away because of the Cy Young. Plus, these three pitchers didn't propel their teams to the playoffs, so it's easier to exclude them.

Most of the talk is about Pedroia and Youkilis, and to a lesser degree Mauer and Morneau. These latter two were talked about more before the playoffs started, and playoffs aren't supposed to matter, but that's the media for you. Josh Hamilton's gaudy RBI totals, and back story, will also get him a ton of votes.

And we've got a Manny parallel here, in Teixeira, except that Tex looks even better. Let's see how they do in the composite score, which I described in my NL Catcher's post, assuming the replacement WS for a player is 5.

Player       Composite
Teixeira        51.1
Cliff Lee       50.9
Halladay        47.1
Mauer           46.7
Morneau         45.9
Youkilis        45.0
M.Rivera        42.6
A-Rod           41.6
Pedroia         39.9
Sizemore        39.2
Hamilton        39.1
Markakis        38.6
Quentin         37.6
Kinsler         37.2
Huff            36.9
Bradley         36.4
Damon           35.0
Bay             33.5
Guerrero        32.5
Granderson      31.6
Roberts         31.0

Wow, where to start? First, Teixeira had a better year than any other player who finished in the AL. That's a dilemma. Then we've got two pitchers, and the Twins.

Frankly, I'm surprised how far down the list Pedroia is. Youkilis is more deserving from the same team. And I guess A-Rod wasn't as bad as I thought.

For those Hamilton supporters, he comes in #11 here. Why are his raw totals gaudy? Because two guys hitting in front of him are #14 and #16 on this list. That's quite an advantage. You also have to be impressed with #13 (Quentin) and #14 (Kinsler), who finished on this list despite missing more than a month at the end of the season.

So does it go to the guy who switched leagues (Tex), a pitcher (Lee) or the only non-pitcher at the top of the list who spent all year in the AL?

I want to go with Teixeira. Except, I bumped Manny down a spot in the NL rankings. Of course, that was easy to do because the choices were third or fourth. Here, Tex is first. But what if Tex started in the AL and went to the NL, and vice versa for Manny, each putting up the same numbers? Tex would be right about where Manny is on the NL list, and Manny would be about where Tex is on this list.

My award goes to Mauer, with Tex second, Youkilis third and Morneau fourth. Why Youkilis ahead of Morneau? It's not his batting stance, I can tell you that! I gave him a little extra for versatility, switching between 3b and 1b to account for Lowell's injuries.

NL Cy Young

I'll measure the NL Cy Young candidates by VORP and WARP (both from BP) and Win Shares. The latter two take into account hitting ability, so that could be important for a pitcher like Zambrano.

But first, some traditional stats used in the Cy Young evaluation:

Pitcher       Wins   ERA    SO
Webb            22  3.30    183
Lincecum        18  2.62    265
Sabathia        17  2.70    251
J.Santana       16  2.53    206
Dempster        17  2.96    187
Hamels          14  3.09    196
Haren           16  3.33    206
Billingsley     16  3.14    201
Oswalt          17  3.54    165
Cook            16  3.96     96
Volquez         17  3.21    206
Sheets          13  3.09    158
Peavy           10  2.85    166

Of course, raw stats don't take into account park factors, and wins don't take into account run support. Based on the above, though, you can eliminate pretty much everyone except Webb, Santana, Sabathia, Lincecum, Dempster and Hamels. All six are top performers in the three traditional categories.

Pitcher       VORP    WS     WARP1
Lincecum      72.5    27      9.5
Sabathia      76.2    25     10.7
Webb          50.8    22      8.7
J.Santana     73.4    21      8.6
Dempster      57.5    18      7.5
Hamels        56.3    18      7.8
Haren         53.2    20      8.3
Billingsley   51.6    16      7.0
Oswalt        44.1    18      6.2
Cook          36.5    17      6.2
Volquez       44.3    17      6.9
Sheets        52.4    16      5.8
Peavy         51.5    15      7.7

Last year was easy, because Peavy led the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts, plus swept the categories above. A lot tougher this year.

Only Lincecum, Sabathia and Santana have the extraordinary VORP numbers. Lincecum played for a horrible team. Sabathia split leagues but was a huge playoff factor. Santana was also a huge playoff factor.

Those same three pitchers, plus Webb, have the best Win Shares, but Lincecum has a significant lead. The same four lead WARP1, but Sabathia is significantly ahead.

In my mind Webb is clearly fourth, because of the factors above, and because he faded down the stretch. Webb had been #2 last year and seemed like the shoo-in at the All-Star break this year.

I think Lincecum was better than Santana this year, and managed to win those games with a terrible Giants team. To me, that pushes Santana to #3.

Sabathia had as good a year as any pitcher. The question is whether a pitcher who splits leagues ought to win one league's Cy Young. That gives me some pause. If he's going to win it, it has to be in the NL because (i) Cliff Lee has got to win it in the AL and (2) Sabathia did all his good work in the NL.

Sabathia single-handedly got Milwaukee to the playoffs for the first time since 1982, and he pitched on 3 days rest down the stretch. It was the most notable performance of the year. I give the Cy Young to C.C. Sabathia, and place Lincecum at #2. Lincecum will win one someday.

NL MVP

Last year David Wright edged Albert Pujols as my NL MVP, but I correctly predicted that Rollins would win it.  I don't think either of those things is going to happen this year, although there is a lot of talk about Ryan Howard winning it this year. 

Let's look at their Win Shares and their WARP1 scores from Baseball Prospectus, along with a few other candidates.

Player      WS*   WARP**
Pujols      35     11.8
Ludwick     26      8.3
H.Ramirez   32      7.3
Uggla       25      5.7
C.Jones     24      8.4
Berkman     38      9.5
Wright      29      7.5
Reyes       29      5.5
Beltran     33      6.5
Utley       30      7.0
Howard      25      3.4
Rollins     24      4.1
Holliday    23      7.1
M.Ramirez   34      8.6
Ethier      25      4.5
A.Gonzalez  26      6.6
McLouth     25      3.9
Fielder     23      4.3 
Braun       25      6.7
D.Lee       18      5.7
A.Ramirez   25      4.7
DeRosa      23      5.6
J.Santana   21      8.6
Lincecum    27      9.5
Dempster    18      7.5
Hamels      18      7.8
Webb        22      8.7
Haren       20      8.3
Sabathia    25     10.7

*Source: The Hardball Times
**Source: Baseball Prospectus. I use FRAA, instead of FRAR, so the WARP1 number is converted. That hurts some players more than others. For instance, it takes 2.2 WARP away from Hanley Ramirez, since he is better than replacement, but below average.

Pujols runs away with it. His 11.8 WARP1 number (with my fielding adjustment) is a big big number.  The best of Pujols career. 

I think he's going to win it, but I think the Howard and Fielder bandwagons are strong. The fact is, of those three guys, only one guy did it consistently all year.

Howard didn't heat up until September. Had he played to his capabilities, the Phillies would have run away with the East instead of clinching just before the season ended. Also, check out some of the other numbers on the Phillies. Jayson Werth and Jimmy Rollins were extremely valuable down the stretch too.

Last year Rollins won it and I thought he was fifth.  If Howard wins it, it is much more of a travesty.  He doesn't even belong in the discussion. Let's put this in perspective: Ryan Howard was about half as good as Ryan Ludwick.

I think it is totally appropriate to include Manny in the discussion, even though more than 1/2 of his season was in the AL. The AL/NL distinction means very little anymore. Manny is almost single-handedly responsible for the Dodgers making the playoffs, and more than half of his numbers above came in the NL.

Here's a table with a composite score, which I described in my NL Catcher's post, assuming the replacement WS for a player is 5.

Player       Composite
Pujols           65.4
Berkman          61.4
M.Ramirez        54.8
Sabathia         52.1
Lincecum         50.5
H.Ramirez        48.9
Beltran          46.5
Wright           46.5
Utley            46.0
Ludwick          45.9
C.Jones          44.2
Webb             43.1
J.Santana        41.8
A.Gonzalez       40.8
Reyes            40.5
Braun            40.1
Haren            40.2
Holliday         39.3
Uggla            37.1
Hamels           36.4
Dempster         35.5
DeRosa           34.8
A.Ramirez        34.1
Ethier           33.5
McLouth          31.7
Rollins          31.3
Fielder          30.9 
Howard           30.2
D.Lee            30.1

Assuming pitchers aren't eligible (b/c they never win and they have their own award), Pujols gets it easily, with Berkman second. I'll give third to Hanley, since Manny split leagues, with Manny 4th and the surprising Ryan Ludwick 5th. I'm ignoring the Mets before Ludwick, since they collapsed at the end. Again.

AL Rookie of the Year

On the Fox pre-game, Kevin Kennedy said Alexei Ramirez ought to get the AL Rookie of the Year over Evan Longoria because "he plays the infield and has played all year."

Oh dear, that is soooooo bad.  Why do I keep getting surprised?

First, Longoria plays the infield.  Last I checked third base is as much in the infield as second base.

Second, is it Longoria's fault that he missed 31 games with a bad wrist?  It's too bad, and if that means he didn't contribute as much, fine.  But if his performance exceeds that of Ramirez, why should the injury alone be a strike against Longoria?

Third -- and this is important -- Longoria has 466 plate appearances.  Ramirez, who Kennedy credits for playing "all year" has 470 plate appearances!  Longoria missed 31 games with an injury and only has 4 fewer plate appearances!

So Kennedy's rationale:  infield and playing time, are essentially equal between the two.  His comment is just plain uninformed.

Finally, let's look at performance, which ought to be the true arbiter of the award.  Here are the BA/OBP/SLG for the two players:

297/320/483 - Ramirez
281/352/545 - Longoria

A 32 point OBP advantage and 62 point SLG advantage far outweigh Ramirez' 16 batting points advantage.  It's the difference between a good 803 OPS for Ramirez and an 897 OPS for Longoria.  Using Tango's quick and dirty OPS Wins formula, that's about 6.1 wins for Longoria and 4.3 wins for Ramirez.  Based solely on batting.

Let's see what Baseball Prospectus says about their hitting, using Value Above Replacement Player, which relates their batting performances relative to a replacement player at their position:

21.7 - Ramirez
36.3 - Longoria

Wins are equivalent to approximately 10 runs, so BP confirms that the hitting different is around 1.5 wins.  (Unlike the OPS wins, this BP measure is wins above replacement, which explains why the absolute numbers are so much lower than the OPS wins).    

How about defense?  BP says Ramirez has allowed 16 more runs than the average second baseman.  Longoria has saved 15 runs above average for his position.  (I'm a little surprised Longoria's number is so low...Longoria is one of the best I've seen at third).  Anyway, that 31 run swing is a difference of about 3 wins.

Longoria missed 31 games, but has put up better rate numbers, and better cumulative statistics, than Ramirez who Kennedy credits with playing all year. A guy who misses 31 games but contributes about 4.5 wins more than another player, ought to be ahead in the Rookie of the Year race.  The missed games are irrelevant, except to make the point about how much further ahead Longoria would be if he had actually been healthy!

Let's hope no one important was listening to Kennedy.

Marvin Miller and the Hall of Fame

For once I agree with something Donald Fehr said:

"It was very disappointing to learn this morning that, once again, Marvin Miller was not elected to the Hall of Fame. Over the entire scope of the last half of the 20th century, no other individual had as much influence on the game of baseball as did Marvin Miller."

I'm not crazy about putting non-players in the Hall of Fame, but since that's already been established, I think Miller ought to be in. (Anyone who cares deeply about baseball should read Miller's book "A Whole Different Ballgame" but copies are scarce.)

It would be somewhat strange, however, to elect both Bowie Kuhn and Marvin Miller on the same ballot, since they were at each other's throats. You'll notice that if you read Miller's book, or Kuhn's for that matter. But Kuhn has already died before getting the glory. In fact, everyone elected today, other than Dick Williams, has already died.

The aging Miller ought to be elected while he can enjoy the moment.

That's Not Wright!

Rollins won the NL MVP, with favorite Matt Holliday and Prince Fielder trailing.

Where, pray tell, were the two best players in the National League: David Wright and Albert Pujols.

If someone further down the list had to win it, I guess I can accept that it is Rollins. He's an exciting player and good for the game. I still think his teammate Utley had a better year, even with a missing month.

World Series MVP

I don't think there's any question that Jonathan Papelbon should be the World Series MVP. The other plausible choice is Mike Lowell.

For a short series like this, it isn't enough to just look at stats. You need to measure when those stats took place, particularly when there is a 13-1 blowout game like game 1. Contributing after the game is out of reach isn't worth much. Contributing while the game is on the line is key.

That's what Win Probability Added measures. Fangraphs keeps track of this stuff. If you add the WPA from the games in which they appear, Papelbon leads the Red Sox, followed by Lowell. That means not only that Papelbon pitched well, and Lowell hit well, but that they did so at key times during games. As you know from other posts, a save is not an indicator of the pressure of the situation. Saves are sometimes available without much pressure.

However, Papelbon's contributions in the Series were at key times, particularly in games 2 and 4.

AL Gold Gloves: Pitchers

I really, really don't care whether a pitcher gets a gold glove. They don't play enough defense to register on the Win Shares scale, except in hundreths of a decimal point. Only a few register Fielding Runs Above Average.

Fausto Carmona has 3 FRAA, as does Jake Westbrook. Chien-Ming Wang has 3. Pettitte has 2. Halladay and Litsch have 2. Jamie Shields has 2. Steve Trachsel has 2.

That's slim pickens.

Of those, Pettitte ranks the highest in Win Shares, followed by Wang and Carmona. There's no way to choose among them.

Pettitte will win the actual award. I'm okay with that.

Iron glove? Who knows? Kevin Millwood and Jeremy Bonderman are godawful at getting off the mount. I'll give it to Millwood. A former Brave should know better.

AL Gold Gloves: Outfield

Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates for the outfield. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9).

Unlike the real voting process, I like to give the three gold gloves to three different outfield positions.

Outfield    FWS    FWAA
Crisp       8.5     2.6
Wells       6.4    -0.2
Granderson  6.3     2.0
Matthews    5.4     0.5
Cabrera     4.9     1.4
Rios        4.9     0.3
Teahen      4.0     1.3
Willits     3.5     1.0
Suzuki      3.3     1.5
Markakis    3.3     0.9
Cuddyer     3.1     0.3
Payton      2.8     0.7

Not many left fielders to choose from, and a couple of surprises. Teahen is a contender in right field, after a move from third base. Hard to trust Win Shares when Markakis is rated the same as Ichiro.

My guess is that Gary Matthews, Curtis Granderson and Torii Hunter win, though Suzuki may get the nod over Matthews.

Coco Crisp easily gets my Gold Glove in center. No one is close. In left, my only choices are Willits and Payton, and Willits is clearly better. Right is tight, between Rios and Teahen.

I'll resolve right field with the composite method (described in the NL Catcher's post), using 2.6 as the average fielding win shares for an outfielder.

Mark Teahen gets it. I guarantee you he won't win the real award (nor will Willits). Crisp at least has a shot.

Iron gloves to Jose Guillen in right field and Raul Ibanez in left field. You'd think Suzuki would be gobbling it up in center with those two statues flanking him. Jerry Owens (he plays for the White Sox), gets it in center field.

AL Gold Gloves: Shortstops

Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates at shortstop. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):

Shortstop    FWS    FWAA
Uribe        9.3     1.5
Cabrera      9.2     1.4
Peralta      8.4     1.6
Pena         8.4     1.4

This is an interesting list. Cabrera will win, because of his superior hitting stats.

Peralta is a surprise. Cleveland has never liked his defense, but tolerated him because of his bat. Here, he shows up as a solid 2d or 3d in gold glove merit.

My gold glove to Juan Uribe, a small bright spot on the southside of Chicago.

Iron glove is difficult. Win Shares has Lugo ranked 6th. BP has him as one of the worst in the league. Visually, I'd side more with BP. Fortunately for Julio, his replacement in Tampa, Brendan Harris, fares poorly -- very poorly -- in both systems. Think Josh Wilson is better than Harris? Nope, he just plays less.

AL Gold Gloves: Third Base

Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates at third base. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):

Third base   FWS    FWAA
Lowell       6.0     1.4
Inge         4.7     1.8
Punto        4.6     0.0
Gordon       4.1    -0.3
Blake        3.8     0.4
A-Rod        3.7     0.4

Lots of disagreement between WS and BP on this one. WS likes Punto, Gordon and Blake. BP thinks they were about average. But, BP thinks nearly all the third basemen are about average.

This is a contest between Lowell and Inge. Lowell has the reputation and will win it.

Using the composite score method (see the NL Catcher's gold glove post), based on an average third baseman achieving 2.0 fielding win shares, Lowell has a very (very) slight edge over Inge. I like it whent he unknowns win. My Gold Glove goes to Inge.

The iron glove goes to....hold your hat....

Eric Chavez! Can that be true? The former gold glove winner? To say this wasn't his year is an understatement.

AL Gold Gloves: Second Base

Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates at second base. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):

Second base   FWS    FWAA
Ellis         8.5    2.5
Cano          6.8    2.3
Hill          7.5    0.3
Pedroia       7.1    0.6
Polanco       5.5    1.6

I think Polanco will win the real award, since he committed no errors. What's amazing is that he doesn't fare particularly well in either system. He may have made no errors, but Win Shares and BP think his range is less than optimal.

I give it to Ellis, with Cano second. Another easy call.

Iron Glove to Danny Richar, who is evidence of just how bad the White Sox are. Can't hit. Can't field. Luis Castillo could have earned it, but I felt sorry for him because he was hurt.

AL Gold Gloves: First Base

Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates at first base. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):

First base   FWS    FWAA
Youkilis     2.8     1.5
Pena         2.3     1.2
Kotchman     2.3     1.1
Sexson       2.0      .7
Millar       1.8      .9
Overbay      1.8      .9

I don't trust WS in this case, because Matt Stairs was tied with Overbay and Millar in fielding win shares.

I expect Youkilis to win it, and he should. I'll give Pena the second spot in a nudge over Casey Kotchman.

Iron Glove is a tough call, as there are a lot of bad part time first basemen. Surprisingly, Mark Teixeira was bad, but he only played part of the year for Texas. I'll give it to Garko, the worst regular by quite a margin. If Teixeira had stayed with Texas, and played at the same level, he would have earned the Iron Glove. That's strange, because he has a good defensive reputation.

AL ROY

The candidates are bunched together in the AL, much more than in the NL. The hitting candidates are Pedroia, Brendan Harris, Travis Buck, Akinori Iwamura and Reggie Willits. Jacoby Ellsbury was good, but only had 127 plate appearances.

The pitching candidates are Jeremy Guthrie, Dice-K, Brian Bannister, Hideki Okajima, Joakim Soria and Rafael Perez.

I really don't know who will win this in real life. Dice-K and Okajima had problems down the stretch. My guess is it will be Pedroia or Bannister, probably the former.

For my ROY, to compare apples to apples, I'll first try to determine who was the best position player, and then who was the best pitcher. Then let them compete for the title.

Player       WS     WARP
Pedroia      19      5.7
Harris       13      2.6
Buck         10      3.1
Iwamura      13      3.2
Willits      15      4.2

Well that was easy. Pedroia is clearly the best position player. Now the pitchers:

Player       WS     WARP
Guthrie      13      5.0
Dice-K       12      6.2
Bannister    13      5.8
Okajima      10      3.7
Soria        11      4.6
Perez         8      2.6

Pretty hard for a reliever to come out ahead. They just don't amass enough innings. Soria comes close to the best of this group, though.

I'm a little put off by allowing Guthrie to win the category, since this is actually the fourth year he has pitched in the big leagues, and he's 28 years old. Even Dice-K, with all the Japanese pitching under his belt, is only 26.

I'll move forward with Pedroia, Dice-K and Bannister. Pedroia easily wins the win shares analysis. The pitchers have the edge in WARP. Here's the August/September analysis, and the key opponents analysis (Yankees/Blue Jays for Pedroia and Dice-K; Indians and Tigers for Bannister, although it wasn't really a race in his case).

Pedroia had an .831 OPS in August in September, but most of that was August. He was very ordinary in September. He had a poor OPS (.691) against the Yankees and Blue Jays.

Matsuzaka was worse down the stretch, with a 3-4 record, and a 5.93 ERA. Quite simply, he got tired. And although he was 5-2 against the Yankees and Blue Jays, it was luck that got him those wins. His ERA was 5.66.

Bannister is a different case, since he had no pennant race pressure. He nevertheless faded, with a 4.57 ERA, despite going 5-3. He did manage to go 3-1 with a 1.76 ERA against the two best clubs in his division, though.

So far I have not resorted to Win Expectancy to resolve these issues, but since I'm not able to pick among these three, that will be my tiebreaker. Win Probability Added (WPA) looks at each event the hitter or pitcher participated in and determines whether his action improved his team's chances of winning, or hurt it. You net the negatives against the positives.

Pedroia's WPA was 0.73 wins.
Dice-K's WPA was 1.68 wins.
Bannister's WPA was 0.59 wins.

I'm giving the ROY to Dice-K, even though I don't like giving the ROY to a guy who has been pitching in Japan since 1999, totally wore out at the end of the season and pitched poorly against his team's chief rivals. If I think of Japan as Triple A, it makes it a little easier.

Pedroia finishes second, Bannister third, Willits fourth and Guthrie fifth.