Monday, October 20, 2008

AL Gold Gloves: First Base

Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates at first base. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):

First base   FWS    FWAA
Overbay      3.8     1.9
Kotchman     3.0     1.2
Youkilis     2.8     0.3  (see note below on WS)
Pena         2.4     1.6
Millar       2.2     1.1

Last year I gave it to Youkilis, with Carlos Pena second in a nudge over Casey Kotchman. Kotchman got traded to the NL, but for my GG, he lands on the AL list.

I openly expressed distrust of WS at 1b, because Overbay and Matt Stairs were tied in WS, so I didn't trust the Overbay ranking. Like Delgado in the NL, here he is again. Every one of the guys on the list above was a contender last year too. I like that consistency.

Using the composite score method (see the NL Catcher's gold glove post), based on an average first baseman achieving 0.7 fielding win shares, Overbay easily wins, with Kotchman second. If we'd get rid of the stupid AL/NL distinction for stats purposes, they'd both win and Derrek Lee would have one less trophy.

Expect Youkilis or Pena to win the real one, since batting is always a factor. Pena would be the better choice. Youkilis played about 79% of his defensive time at 1b, so I had to prorate his WS.

Surprisingly, the Iron Glove last year almost went to Teixeira, who came close to a GG from me this year. But I gave the iron to Ryan Garko last year.

Garko improved a lot this year. Jason Giambi did not, and I thought he'd get the metal. But Miguel Cabrera outdistanced him in badness (and diet), so Miggy gets the Iron Glove.