Monday, June 30, 2008

Predict-a-Matic: June 30, 2008

12 games, with the new algorithms.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Greinke (KCR)   6.1  6   1   2   5   2  54  33%   25%
Burres (BAL)    5.9  7   1   2   4   3  48  13%   20%
Maine (NYM)     6.0  6   1   2   5   2  54  38%   27%
Lohse (STL)     5.7  6   0   2   3   2  51  20%   16%
Feldman (TEX)   5.7  8   1   4   3   4  37  14%   58%
Mussina (NYY)   5.3  7   1   1   3   2  48  13%   17%
Maholm (PIT)    5.5  7   1   2   4   3  44  21%   45%
Harang (CIN)    6.2  7   1   1   6   3  53  12%   18%
Masterson (BOS) 5.5  6   1   3   4   3  49  31%   30%
Shields (TBR)   6.8  6   1   1   6   3  59  15%   16%
Galarraga (DET) 6.2  6   1   2   4   2  55  37%   27%
Perkins (MIN)   5.9  8   1   2   3   3  45   9%   30%
Sowers (CLE)    4.6  7   1   2   2   3  39  19%   48%
Floyd (CHW)     5.5  6   1   2   5   3  47   6%   32%
Maddux (SDP)    5.8  7   0   1   3   2  50  34%   25%
de la Rosa (COL)5.2  6   1   2   4   3  45  10%   23%
Smith (OAK)     5.7  6   1   3   3   3  47  31%   35%
Garland (LAA)   6.0  7   0   2   3   2  51  12%   19%
Bush (MIL)      5.3  7   1   2   4   3  45  23%   39%
Davis (ARI)     5.6  6   1   3   5   3  48  11%   22%
Halladay (TOR)  7.2  8   0   1   4   2  57  38%   25%
Dickey (SEA)    6.1  7   0   2   4   3  47  11%   24%
Lilly (CHC)     5.9  6   0   2   5   2  55  42%   20%
Zito (SFG)      5.3  6   0   3   4   2  49  15%   16%

Pitcher Boom Games: Harang, Shields, Halladay, Lilly

Pitcher Bust Games: Feldman, Sowers

Hitter Boom Games: Pena, Hinske, D.Lee, Aramis, Sizemore, Garko, Thome, Dye, M.Cabrera, Ordonez, J.Guillen, Aviles, Scott, Hart, Fielder, Reynolds, Byrnes, Beltran, Pujols, Cust, V.Guerrero, Napoli, McLouth, Dunn, Phillips, Hawpe, Headley, Kouzmanoff, Hamilton, Bradley, ARod, Betemit, Wells, Rolen

Hitter Bust Games: Moss, Varitek, Bartlett, Lewis, J.Castillo, Carroll, Del.Young, Casilla, Gathright, Cintron, A.Jones, En.Chavez, Miles, Kennedy, E.Aybar, Taveras, E.Gonzalez, McDonald, Vidro, Reed

Game Winners: Tampa Bay, Cubs, White Sox, Detroit, Kansas City*, Milwaukee*, St. Louis, Angels, Cincinnati, San Diego, Yankees, Toronto

Sunday, June 29, 2008

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 29, 2008

Slowey with the performance of the day, and he was on my bust list! Too many more days like these weekend games, and I'm going to stop predicting booms, busts and games.

On the other hand, I have a thought about how to improve the game predictor, and I spent the evening messing with the play-by-play algorithms. I think I have a more accurate way to reflect the park factors and platoon splits.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Arroyo   (CIN)  5.2  7   1   2   6   3  50  25%   37%
                6.0  5   1   2   6   1  62  Grade: B+
Laffey   (CLE)  5.2  6   0   1   3   2  52  22%   14%
                5.0  8   1   1   2   5  32  Grade: C (under penalty)
-----------------------------------------------------
Haren    (ARI)  6.2  6   1   1   7   2  60  36%   27%
                7.0  5   0   2   7   0  72  Grade: B+
Olsen    (FLA)  5.1  6   1   3   4   3  45  13%   22%
                7.0  5   1   2   4   3  57  Grade: B
-----------------------------------------------------
Reynolds (COL)  5.0  7   1   2   2   3  40  19%   48%
                5.2 10   0   0   3   4  38  Grade: B (under bonus)
Rogers   (DET)  5.1  6   0   3   3   3  45  14%   21%
                6.0  8   1   2   2   3  44  Grade: A-
-----------------------------------------------------
Rasner   (NYY)  5.0  6   0   1   3   2  48  36%   25%
                5.0  8   1   3   3   2  43  Grade: A
Perez    (NYM)  5.1  5   1   3   5   3  49  12%   20%
                7.0  3   1   0   8   1  75  Grade: D (over penalty)
-----------------------------------------------------
Reyes    (ATL)  5.0  6   1   3   3   2  47  33%   29%
                7.0  6   0   2   5   1  64  Grade: C+(over bonus)
Burnett  (TOR)  6.1  5   0   3   7   2  59  19%   13%
                7.0  4   0   4  11   0  76  Grade: B-
-----------------------------------------------------
Sheets   (MIL)  6.1  7   0   1   5   2  57  43%   21%
                7.0  9   1   2   7   5  44  Grade: C
Slowey   (MIN)  5.1  7   2   1   5   3  46   5%   33%
                9.0  3   0   0   8   0  89  Grade: F
-----------------------------------------------------
Looper   (STL)  5.2  7   0   1   3   2  49  35%   28%
                3.1  6   0   4   2   2  38  Grade: C+(under bonus)
Bannister(KCR)  5.2  7   1   2   3   2  49  14%   18%
                4.2  9   1   4   1   7  17  Grade: D
-----------------------------------------------------
Beckett  (BOS)  7.1  7   1   1   8   2  64  46%   18%
                7.0  8   1   1   4   2  56  Grade: A
Moeller  (HOU)  6.2  7   1   2   4   3  51  11%   21%
                5.2  7   1   3   5   1  55  Grade: B
-----------------------------------------------------
Sanchez  (SFG)  5.2  5   0   3   7   2  55  42%   21%
                7.0  4   1   1   6   1  70  Grade: B (over bonus)
Blanton  (OAK)  7.0  7   0   1   3   2  57  24%   10%
                4.0  8   0   1   3   7  20  Grade: F
-----------------------------------------------------
Bedard   (SEA)  6.1  6   0   1   7   2  59  46%   19%
                5.2  3   0   3   3   1  61  Grade: B-
Peavy    (SDP)  7.0  6   0   1   7   1  66  32%    4%
                6.0 10   1   1   6   3  45  Grade: C-(under penalty)
-----------------------------------------------------
Lackey   (LAA)  7.0  7   0   1   5   2  58  42%   21%
                8.2  3   0   2   9   0  84  Grade: C-(over bonus)
Lowe     (LAD)  6.1  6   0   1   5   2  57  21%   11%
                7.0  5   0   2   7   1  68  Grade: B
-----------------------------------------------------
Marshall (CHC)  5.0  5   1   2   3   2  49  37%   26%
                7.0  5   2   1   5   3  59  Grade: C
Buehrle  (CHW)  6.0  7   1   2   4   2  51  16%   20%
                7.0  6   0   2   5   0  68  Grade: C+

Pitcher Boom Games: Avg. GS: 59

Pitcher Bust Games: Avg. GS: 63

Hitter Boom Games: .223 2Dbl 4HR 7R 9RBI

Hitter Bust Games: 15-63 1Tpl 2Hr 5R, 5RBI

Game Winners: 3-9

Predict-a-Matic: June 29, 2008

After today I'm revising the boom criteria. Too many boom predictions.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Arroyo   (CIN)  5.2  7   1   2   6   3  50  25%   37%
Laffey   (CLE)  5.2  6   0   1   3   2  52  22%   14%
Haren    (ARI)  6.2  6   1   1   7   2  60  36%   27%
Olsen    (FLA)  5.1  6   1   3   4   3  45  13%   22%
Reynolds (COL)  5.0  7   1   2   2   3  40  19%   48%
Rogers   (DET)  5.1  6   0   3   3   3  45  14%   21%
Rasner   (NYY)  5.0  6   0   1   3   2  48  36%   25%
Perez    (NYM)  5.1  5   1   3   5   3  49  12%   20%
Reyes    (ATL)  5.0  6   1   3   3   2  47  33%   29%
Burnett  (TOR)  6.1  5   0   3   7   2  59  19%   13%
Sheets   (MIL)  6.1  7   0   1   5   2  57  43%   21%
Slowey   (MIN)  5.1  7   2   1   5   3  46   5%   33%
Looper   (STL)  5.2  7   0   1   3   2  49  35%   28%
Bannister(KCR)  5.2  7   1   2   3   2  49  14%   18%
Beckett  (BOS)  7.1  7   1   1   8   2  64  46%   18%
Moeller  (HOU)  6.2  7   1   2   4   3  51  11%   21%
Sanchez  (SFG)  5.2  5   0   3   7   2  55  42%   21%
Blanton  (OAK)  7.0  7   0   1   3   2  57  24%   10%
Bedard   (SEA)  6.1  6   0   1   7   2  59  46%   19%
Peavy    (SDP)  7.0  6   0   1   7   1  66  32%    4%
Lackey   (LAA)  7.0  7   0   1   5   2  58  42%   21%
Lowe     (LAD)  6.1  6   0   1   5   2  57  21%   11%
Marshall (CHC)  5.0  5   1   2   3   2  49  37%   26%
Buehrle  (CHW)  6.0  7   1   2   4   2  51  16%   20%

Pitcher Boom Games: Haren, Burnett, Sheets, Beckett, Moehler(??), Sanchez, Blanton, Bedard, Peavy, Lackey, Lowe

Pitcher Bust Games: Reynolds, Slowey

Hitter Boom Games: M.Reynolds, C.Young, Teixeira, Stairs, Barajas, Manny, J.D. Drew, Sizemore, Holliday, Atkins, Thames, M.Cabrera, Fielder, Hart, ARod, Posada, Beltran, Wright, Pujols, Ankiel, Aviles, Guerrero, Kotchman, Aramis, Thome, Dye

Hitter Bust Games: Treanor, Blanco, Francoeur, Lugo, Bourn, Wigginton, Bako, Taveras, Del.Young, Punto, Gathright, F.Lewis, J.Castillo, E.Brown, Hannahan, Clement, Betancourt, Gerut, Headley, Kendrick, Mathis, Berroa, Kemp

Game Winners: Arizona, Toronto, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee, Yankees, Kansas City, Oakland, San Diego, Dodgers, White Sox

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 28, 2008

What a pitching night. Five pitchers with game scores better than 75. And a no hitter from Jeff Weaver (with relief help), but he lost anyway.

Pretty good pitcher results. Lots of A and B grades and no Fs. The Boom Pitchers look good with the average GS, but included Vazquez and Lester, who gave two of the worst performances. The Boom Hitters were so-so...they did about what you'd expect from good hitters. The Bust Pitchers were pretty accurate. The Bust Hitters were a little better than you might expect, except weak in the power department (only a .369 slugging pct). Game predictor was again useless.


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Webb     (ARI)  7.1  6   0   1   8   2  63  45%   19%
                6.0  5   0   3   8   2  59  Grade: B+
Miller   (FLA)  5.0  5   0   2   5   2  52  21%   12%
                5.2  5   0   3   4   3  50  Grade: A-
-----------------------------------------------------
Olson    (BAL)  5.0  5   0   3   4   2  50  44%   23%
                5.0  6   0   3   5   1  53  Grade: A
Lannan   (WSN)  5.2  6   0   2   3   2  51  18%   16%
                5.0  7   2   1   1   4  37  Grade: C+
-----------------------------------------------------
Lester   (BOS)  6.0  6   0   2   4   2  54  40%   27%
                5.0  9   2   0   3   6  28  Grade: D
Backe    (HOU)  5.2  7   1   2   4   3  47  10%   23%
                5.1  9   0   3   5   6  29  Backe: C+
-----------------------------------------------------
Gallagher(CHC)  6.1  7   1   3   4   3  47  18%   46%
                6.0  8   2   3   8   5  41  Grade: B
Vazquez  (CHW)  6.1  6   1   2   7   2  58  16%   15%
                4.1  9   0   3   7   5  30  Grade: D
-----------------------------------------------------
Cueto    (CIN)  5.1  6   1   2   6   3  48  25%   39%
                6.1  5   1   3   2   0  63  Grade: C
Byrd     (CLE)  6.0  8   1   1   2   3  43  11%   27%
                6.0  6   1   3   4   4  45  Grade: A-
-----------------------------------------------------
Francis  (COL)  6.0  7   1   2   5   3  48  20%   41%
                6.0 11   1   2   2   4  34  Grade: A-(under bonus)
Verlander(DET)  6.1  6   0   2   6   2  57  16%   15%
                5.2  5   0   4   6   2  55  Grade: A
-----------------------------------------------------
Weaver   (LAA)  6.0  7   0   1   4   2  55  47%   21%
                6.0  0   0   3   6   0  75  Grade: B-(over bonus)
Billingsl(LAD)  6.0  6   0   2   6   2  56  22%   11%
                7.0  3   0   3   7   0  75  Grade: C+
-----------------------------------------------------
Parra    (MIL)  5.2  6   0   3   4   2  51  35%   27%
                7.0  2   0   4   6   0  75  Grade: C (over bonus)
Hernandez(MIN)  5.2  8   1   2   3   4  41   5%   36%
                7.0  7   0   4   5   4  48  Grade: B
-----------------------------------------------------
Pettitte (NYY)  6.0  7   0   2   4   2  51  33%   31%
                6.0  5   2   3   4   2  55  Grade: A
Santana  (NYM)  6.1  6   1   2   7   2  58  14%   18%
                6.0  4   0   4   8   3  56  Grade: B+
-----------------------------------------------------
Hamels   (PHI)  6.2  6   1   2   7   2  58  31%   27%
                7.0  6   1   2   8   4  55  Grade: A-
Padilla  (TEX)  5.0  6   1   2   4   3  44   5%   28%
                6.0  7   2   3   3   7  30  Grade: C (under bonus)
-----------------------------------------------------
Lincecum (SFG)  6.1  6   0   3   7   2  57  48%   19%
                7.0  5   0   3  11   0  75  Grade: B (over bonus)
Duchscher(OAK)  6.1  6   0   1   4   1  60  29%    6%
                8.0  2   0   1   4   1  77  Grade: B (over bonus)

Pitcher Boom Games: Avg. GS: 58

Pitcher Bust Games: Avg. GS: 41

Hitter Boom Games: .275 4Dbl 5HR 15R 16RBI

Hitter Bust Games: .262 4Dbl 1HR 5R 5RBI

Game Winners: 6-5

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Predict-a-Matic: June 28, 2008

Let us pray, each in our own individual way, for a better Predict-A-Matic performance than yesterday's.


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Webb     (ARI)  7.1  6   0   1   8   2  63  45%   19%
Miller   (FLA)  5.0  5   0   2   5   2  52  21%   12%
Olson    (BAL)  5.0  5   0   3   4   2  50  44%   23%
Lannan   (WSN)  5.2  6   0   2   3   2  51  18%   16%
Lester   (BOS)  6.0  6   0   2   4   2  54  40%   27%
Backe    (HOU)  5.2  7   1   2   4   3  47  10%   23%
Gallagher(CHC)  6.1  7   1   3   4   3  47  18%   46%
Vazquez  (CHW)  6.1  6   1   2   7   2  58  16%   15%
Cueto    (CIN)  5.1  6   1   2   6   3  48  25%   39%
Byrd     (CLE)  6.0  8   1   1   2   3  43  11%   27%
Francis  (COL)  6.0  7   1   2   5   3  48  20%   41%
Verlander(DET)  6.1  6   0   2   6   2  57  16%   15%
Weaver   (LAA)  6.0  7   0   1   4   2  55  47%   21%
Billingsl(LAD)  6.0  6   0   2   6   2  56  22%   11%
Parra    (MIL)  5.2  6   0   3   4   2  51  35%   27%
Hernandez(MIN)  5.2  8   1   2   3   4  41   5%   36%
Pettitte (NYY)  6.0  7   0   2   4   2  51  33%   31%
Santana  (NYM)  6.1  6   1   2   7   2  58  14%   18%
Hamels   (PHI)  6.2  6   1   2   7   2  58  31%   27%
Padilla  (TEX)  5.0  6   1   2   4   3  44   5%   28%
Lincecum (SFG)  6.1  6   0   3   7   2  57  48%   19%
Duchscher(OAK)  6.1  6   0   1   4   1  60  29%    6%

Pitcher Boom Games: Webb, Lester, Vazquez, Verlander, Weaver, Billingsley, Johan, Hamels, Lincecum, Duchscherer

Pitcher Bust Games: Gallagher, Byrd, Livan, Padilla

Hitter Boom Games: C.Jackson, Payton, Millar, Manny, Drew, Berkman, C.Lee, Thome, Dye, Dunn, Griffey, Sizemore, Garko, Thames, Sheffield, Loney, Fielder, Braun, ARod, Beltran, Utley, Howard, Bradley

Hitter Bust Games: Hermida, Jacobs, Fahey, Bourn, Loretta, Patterson, Cedeno, Taveras, Iannetta, Mathis, Figgins, Pierre, Kemp, C.Gomez, Abreu, Saltalamacchia, Byrd, F.Lewis, J.Castillo, Cust, Hannahan


Game Winners: Arizona, Washington, Boston, White Sox, Cleveland, Detroit, Dodgers, Milwaukee, Mets, Philadelphia, Oakland

Friday, June 27, 2008

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 27, 2008

Worst day for the Predict-A-Matic in memory (three F's and no A's????). When Sidney Ponson pitches well, you know the predictions are gonna be ugly.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Owings   (ARI)  5.2  6   1   1   5   2  54  36%   27%
                4.0  4   1   2   6   3  46  Grade: inj   
Nolasco  (FLA)  5.2  6   1   2   5   3  47   8%   26%
                8.0  6   0   1   9   1  74  Grade: D (over penalty)
----------------------------------------------------- 
Jurrjens (ATL)  5.1  5   0   2   3   2  51  44%   21%
                8.0  3   0   1   3   0  78  Grade: C-(over bonus)
McGowan  (TOR)  6.1  5   0   2   5   2  59  24%    8%
                7.1  8   1   3   4   4  48  Grade: C
-----------------------------------------------------
Cabrera  (BAL)  6.1  6   0   3   6   2  55  37%   26%
                6.1  9   0   3   4   4  41  Grade: B
O.Perez  (WSN)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  49  17%   16%
                4.0  3   0   3   3   0  56  Grade: C
-----------------------------------------------------
Dempster (CHC)  5.2  6   1   2   5   2  53  38%   25%
                2.1  7   1   3   1   8   9  Grade: F
Contreras(CHW)  6.1  7   0   2   4   2  53  14%   19%
                6.0  7   3   2   3   3  47  Grade: B+
-----------------------------------------------------
Ponson   (NYY)  5.2  8   0   2   3   3  43  30%   37%
                6.0  5   0   4   4   0  62  Grade: B-(over bonus)
Martinez (NYM)  5.2  6   0   1   5   2  54  25%   13%
                5.2  6   0   5   4   6  34  Grade: C+(under penalty)
-----------------------------------------------------
Myers    (PHI)  5.2  6   1   3   6   3  50  23%   41%
                2.0  5   1   4   2   5  24  Grade: D (under bonus)
Gabbard  (TEX)  4.2  5   0   3   4   2  48  19%   16%
                3.1  4   2   5   4   1  47  Grade: C+
-----------------------------------------------------
Washburn (SEA)  5.2  7   0   1   4   2  51  33%   29%
                7.2  7   1   1   2   2  60  Grade: B (over bonus)
Wolf     (SDP)  6.1  6   0   1   6   1  61  29%    6%
                3.1  8   0   5   2   2  33  Grade: F (under penalty)
-----------------------------------------------------
Correia  (SFG)  5.2  6   0   3   4   2  51  43%   23%
                5.0  4   0   2   4   1  57  Grade: B
Eveland  (OAK)  5.2  6   0   2   3   2  51  26%    9%
                7.1  5   0   2   3   1  66  Grade: B
----------------------------------------------------
Pineiro  (STL)  5.2  7   0   1   3   2  50  37%   24%
                7.2 10   1   2   2   7  33  Grade: F          
Meche    (KCR)  6.0  6   1   2   5   2  54  15%   15%
                7.0  6   1   1   2   1  62  Grade: B
Pitcher Boom Games: Avg GS: 44

Pitcher Bust Games: None

Hitter Boom Games: 13-54 3HR 6R 5RBI

Hitter Bust Games: 14-44 5R 4RBI

Game Winners: 4-5

George Hendrick and Joe West

George Hendrick coaches first base for the Rays. Tonight, Joe West was the umpire at first. During a couple of camera cutaways, I noticed them chatting. That got me wondering, in a trivial sort of way, how many times those guys crossed paths.

West is an ump in the National League and has been since 1976. Hendrick played 18 years in the majors (and was quite good), about half of which were in the NL. He played for the Padres in 1977 and part of 1978, when he was traded to the Cardinals for Eric Rasmussen. He played great for the Cardinals, with an average OPS+ of 125, which means he hit 25% better than league average. Rasmussen went 22-30 for the Padres before returning to the Cardinals to be Hendrick's teammate. I'd say the Cards won that trade handily. Especially since they traded Hendrick to the Pirates in the 1985 offseason and got John Tudor and Brian Harper, two pretty good players.

Anyway, just to see if I could do it, I wanted to see how many of Hendrick's games Joe West umped behind the plate. My pre-research guess is 35, which is basically the number of games Hendrick played, divided by four (the number of umpire positions), and divided by seven, which is the average number of NL games that were played every night. I have no idea if this makes any sense. I spent 10 seconds thinking about it.

The answer was more interesting than I thought, mostly because I was pretty close with my prediction. West was the home plate umpire 30 times when Hendrick was a hitter at some point in the game. In three of those games, Hendrick was only a pinch hitter.

Also of note:

Hendrick was traded from SD to STL on May 23, 1978, but did not report and play in a game for STL until the 29th. West was the home plate umpire for a STL game on the 25th, so they just missed having one more encounter.

There were also (11) games where West was the home plate umpire for Hendrick's team, but Hendrick did not appear in the game.

Hendrick was an outfielder, mostly, so he wouldn't have had as much contact with West in the infield. However, in 1983 he played 92 games at 1b and in 1984 he played 1 game there. West was the first base umpire in none of those games.

O-Hustle

Watching the Marlins game against the Dbacks, Josh Willingham hits a high pop fly to LF. Byrnes, in left, can't find the ball. Drew, at short, can't find the ball. Chris Young, in center, can't find the ball and is too far away. This is a problem in Dolphin Stadium, where the lights are designed for football, not baseball.

Cantu is on second with the Marlins leading 2-1 and two outs. If the ball drops, he scores, the Marlins have a cushion and the inning continues with Mike Jacobs facing a shaky Micah Owings.

But it isn't going to drop, and you know why? Because Orlando Hudson made the play. That's right. Hudson ran from second base to left field and made the catch of the pop fly that Byrnes, Drew and Young couldn't make.

It was the best hustle play since Jeter's flip to home.

The other thing I liked about it is that Hudson got up after making the catch and yelled at the other guys to get their heads in the game. It was almost a "don't make me do this again!" kind of face.

Love the O-Dog!

Update: On ESPN's Baseball Tonight, this play ranked as the #5 Web Gem. The lead anchor said "I don't know how this one is only #5." One of the baseball analysts (Buck Showalter, I think) said "This is #5 because the people who pick these Web gems never played baseball and don't know how hard this is. This is a great play." True, but way to throw the producer under the bus.

Thin

From mid-April to May, there was talk of the Mets releasing Carlos Delgado. He was hitting .213, with 7 HR, 20 RBI and a paltry 670 OPS. At age 36, in his 15th major league year, he was considered finished.

Baseball's tough. We're talking about a guy who with 87 RBI last year, had his worst RBI year since 1995 when he only got 91 at bats. Beginning in 1996 when he became a regular, he has averaged .283/.380/.555 for a 935 OPS, with 35 HR, 112 RBI and 92 Runs. Three Silver Slugger Awards, two All-Star teams (should have been more) and three top 10 finishes in the MVP race.

I hate to see a guy like that decline, but I also hate to see people talk about his outright release. Especially for a such an nice guy who has won awards for his charitable work through MLB charities.

So tonight I was thrilled to see that batting line: 3-for-5, 2 Runs, 1 Double, 2 HR and 9 RBI. I hope this foretells a resurgence.

Predict-a-Matic: June 27, 2008

Nine games today.


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Owings   (ARI)  5.2  6   1   1   5   2  54  36%   27%
Nolasco  (FLA)  5.2  6   1   2   5   3  47   8%   26%
Jurrjens (ATL)  5.1  5   0   2   3   2  51  44%   21%
McGowan  (TOR)  6.1  5   0   2   5   2  59  24%    8%
Cabrera  (BAL)  6.1  6   0   3   6   2  55  37%   26%
O.Perez  (WSN)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  49  17%   16%
Dempster (CHC)  5.2  6   1   2   5   2  53  38%   25%
Contreras(CHW)  6.1  7   0   2   4   2  53  14%   19%
Ponson   (NYY)  5.2  8   0   2   3   3  43  30%   37%
Martinez (NYM)  5.2  6   0   1   5   2  54  25%   13%
Myers    (PHI)  5.2  6   1   3   6   3  50  23%   41%
Gabbard  (TEX)  4.2  5   0   3   4   2  48  19%   16%
Washburn (SEA)  5.2  7   0   1   4   2  51  33%   29%
Wolf     (SDP)  6.1  6   0   1   6   1  61  29%    6%
Correia  (SFG)  5.2  6   0   3   4   2  51  43%   23%
Eveland  (OAK)  5.2  6   0   2   3   2  51  26%    9%
Pineiro  (STL)  5.2  7   0   1   3   2  50  37%   24%
Meche    (KCR)  6.0  6   1   2   5   2  54  15%   15%

Pitcher Boom Games: McGowan, Pedro, Wolf, Meche

Pitcher Bust Games: None

Hitter Boom Games: C.Jackson, C.Young, H.Ramirez, Uggla, Millar, Scott, Edmonds, Soto, Konerko, Beltran, Wright, Burrell, Bradley, Hamilton, Greene, A.Gonzalez, Pujols, Aviles

Hitter Bust Games: Br.Jones, Blanco, Rios, Rolen, WM.Pena, R.Johnson, B.Anderson, M.Young, Bloomquist, Suzuki, E.Gonzalez, Bowker, Horwitz, R.Sweeney, Barton, LaRue, Callaspo, Gathright


Game Winners: Arizona, Toronto, Baltimore, White Sox, Mets, Texas, San Diego, Oakland, Kansas City

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 25, 2008

Not a bad day, in a lot of ways. The pitching predictions were pretty good if you eliminate the Detroit/St. Louis results, which were screwed up by a long rain delay in the 5th. The boom pitchers didn't boom, and I wouldn't say Sowers was a bust.

But the boom hitters boomed big time, and the bust hitters weren't so hot.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Johnson  (ARI)  5.2  6   1   2   6   2  54  41%   25%
                6.0  8   0   2   5   2  51  Grade: A
Wakefield(BOS)  5.1  6   1   2   4   3  46  10%   25%
                7.0  2   0   1   6   0  78  Grade: D (over penalty)
-----------------------------------------------------
Burres   (BAL)  5.2  6   1   3   5   2  52  35%   29%
                DNP
Lilly    (CHC)  5.2  5   1   2   6   2  56  18%   11%
                7.0  5   2   2   4   4  53  Grade: C+         
-----------------------------------------------------
Harang   (CIN)  6.2  7   1   2   5   3  52  30%   34%
                5.2  7   2   3   3   5  37  Grade: B (under bonus)
Halladay (TOR)  7.1  7   0   1   5   2  60  21%   13%
                6.2  9   1   4   7   5  41  Grade: C
-----------------------------------------------------
Santana  (LAA)  6.0  6   1   2   5   2  55  36%   28%
                6.0  4   1   5   8   4  51  Grade: B
Redding  (WAS)  5.2  6   0   2   4   2  52  19%   13%
                6.0  7   0   1   2   2  51  Grade: A
-----------------------------------------------------
Perkins  (MIN)  6.1  8   1   1   4   3  49  27%   40%
                5.0  6   0   2   2   3  43  Grade: B- 
Maddux   (SDP)  6.0  7   0   1   3   2  53  28%    9%
                5.2  7   1   2   3   6  34  Grade: C+(under penalty)
-----------------------------------------------------
Kendrick (PHI)  5.2  6   0   1   2   2  51  37%   24%
                8.0  4   0   1   4   0  77  Grade: C-(over bonus)
Smith    (OAK)  5.2  6   1   3   4   3  47  14%   20%
                5.2  7   0   2   3   4  42  Grade: A
-----------------------------------------------------
Batista  (SEA)  5.2  6   0   3   3   3  46  32%   32%
                2.2  5   3   5   3   4  30  Grade: D+(under bonus)
Maine    (NYM)  6.1  6   0   2   5   2  56  23%   10%
                6.0  5   0   2   3   2  55  Grade: A
-----------------------------------------------------
Zito     (SFG)  5.0  6   0   3   4   2  48  32%   33%
                6.2  4   0   0   4   1  68  Grade: B-(over bonus)
Sowers   (CLE)  5.0  7   1   1   2   3  42  15%   19%
                7.0  9   1   5   3   3  45  Grade: C
-----------------------------------------------------
Lohse    (STL)  5.2  7   1   1   3   3  46  27%   33%
                4.0 11   1   1   2   5  21  Grade: C (under bonus)
Galarraga(DET)  6.0  6   0   3   4   2  53  17%   16%
                4.2  8   3   0   3   4  37  Grade: D+
Pitcher Boom Games: Average GS: 47

Pitcher Bust Games: GS: 45

Hitter Boom Games: .354 2Dbl 1Tpl 3HR 13R 17RBI

Hitter Bust Games: .208 1HR 6R, 9RBI

Game Winners: 5-4

Predict-a-Matic: June 25, 2008

Messed around with the pitch count estimator to get a wider range of performances, though the medians and averages won't change much as a result. I'm also adding in the predicted game score, because I'm rounding numbers off here, and sometimes the rounding makes a difference. For instance, Randy Johnson is predicted at 5.8 innings. Is that 5 2/3, or 6 IP? I round to the closest, but the extra out makes a difference in his prediction.

I've also changed the name of the Stud% and Bomb%, as they are misleading. They are really the odds that the pitcher will do significantly better or worse than I predicted. Illustrative is Halladay's line. His "stud%" would only be 21%, which might lead you to believe he only has a 1 in 5 chance of having a great game. But that's misleading because that 60 game score is a studly performance. His median performance is studly! What the 21% really means is that the system thinks there is a 21% chance he will be significantly better than that median prediction.

I've also added Boom Games and Bust Games, instead of just the good hitters' games. I've done this for hitters and pitchers, though I'm still refining the pitcher system. Hitter booms and busts are limited to two per team. Good hitters usually boom and bad hitters usually bust, so no point listing all of them.


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Johnson  (ARI)  5.2  6   1   2   6   2  54  41%   25%
Wakefield(BOS)  5.1  6   1   2   4   3  46  10%   25%
Burres   (BAL)  5.2  6   1   3   5   2  52  35%   29%
Lilly    (CHC)  5.2  5   1   2   6   2  56  18%   11%
Harang   (CIN)  6.2  7   1   2   5   3  52  30%   34%
Halladay (TOR)  7.1  7   0   1   5   2  60  21%   13%
Santana  (LAA)  6.0  6   1   2   5   2  55  36%   28%
Redding  (WAS)  5.2  6   0   2   4   2  52  19%   13%
Perkins  (MIN)  6.1  8   1   1   4   3  49  27%   40%
Maddux   (SDP)  6.0  7   0   1   3   2  53  28%    9%
Kendrick (PHI)  5.2  6   0   1   2   2  51  37%   24%
Smith    (OAK)  5.2  6   1   3   4   3  47  14%   20%
Batista  (SEA)  5.2  6   0   3   3   3  46  32%   32%
Maine    (NYM)  6.1  6   0   2   5   2  56  23%   10%
Zito     (SFG)  5.0  6   0   3   4   2  48  32%   33%
Sowers   (CLE)  5.0  7   1   1   2   3  42  15%   19%
Lohse    (STL)  5.2  7   1   1   3   3  46  27%   33%
Galarraga(DET)  6.0  6   0   3   4   2  53  17%   16%

Pitcher Boom Games: R.Johnson, Halladay, Maine, Lilly, Maddux


Pitcher Bust Games: Sowers


Hitter Boom Games: Tracy, C.Young, Lowell, Scott, Soto, A.Ramirez, V.Guerrero, Kotchman, Kouzmanoff, A.Gonzalez, Burrell, Howard, Cust, Beltran, Wright, Rowand, B.Molina, Ankiel, Sheffield, Thames


Hitter Bust Games: Moss, Lugo, Cintron, A.Jones, E.Patterson, Hopper, Bako, Kendrick, E.Aybar, W.Harris, C.Gomez, B.Harris, E.Gonzalez, Bloomquist, Ichiro, Barton, Kennedy


Game Winners: San Diego, Arizona, Cubs, Toronto, Washington, Philadelphia, Mets, Cleveland (tossup), Detroit

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

More on Negative Game Scores

Last year in July I did a post about 2007's high number of negative game scores for starting pitchers.

From 1956-2006, there had been only 103 games in which the starting pitcher earned a negative game score. By the time of my post in late July 2007, seven had already occurred in those 4 months of the season. Three names were added by the end of the season, which brought the number to 10 for the year.

We are approaching early July 2008, and before tonight's game, we had only two negative performances. One from Jason Simontacci (-2) and one from Jarrod Washburn (-1). Tonight we will add Bronson Arroyo, who turned in a -9 in one inning of work. Last year Jason Jennings produced a -11 in only 2/3 of an inning. Hurdle pulled him at 39 pitches. Arroyo this evening threw 52 pitches before Dusty decided to pull him.

It's interesting how many fewer negative scores we have had this year compared to last. Could the managers be learning? Maybe, but it is too soon to call.

I looked at 2006 and was surprised to see 10 negative game scores. That means in 2006 and 2007, 20 of the 115 negative game scores since 1956 occurred -- 17%, just in those two years. How about for the decade? Fifty negative game scores, or a whopping 44%. Here are the number of negative game scores by decade (60's through 00's, there were none from 1956-1959):

'00s  51, and it's only mid-way through 2008
'90s  46
'80s   8
'70s   8
'60s   1


Of the negative game scores, here is the average negative game score for the last four decades:
'00s  -4.9
'90s  -4.5
'80s  -3.5
'70s  -4.0

So not only are they occurring much more frequently, the pitchers are suffering more.

It's pretty interesting that as pitchers are less expected to throw a CG, thus shifting more responsibility to bullpens, they are also less likely to get the hook in an early blowout.

But there's one more tidbit that may absolve these managers. Out of those 115 negative game scores, only 19 involved pitchers throwing less than 60 pitches in the game. All but one of those 19 occurred since 1993. The other one was in 1988.

That indicates that prior to 1993, a larger number of pitchers were lifted when they approached their max pitch counts...they basically went as far as they could, to protect the bullpen.

But since 1993, it is more likely a pitcher will be pulled before the max pitch count is approached, which seems to be a recognition by managers that they need to get them out of there. Cincinnati's game was lost in the first inning. Dusty could have left Arroyo out for another 30 pitches, with no effect on the W-L record, but he pulled him.

Confusing: more negative game scores + worse game scores + lower pitch counts.

My initial conclusion is the pitchers are simply much worse. They are pitching horribly more often, and the horrible incidents are worse, and they are doing it without even going as deep into their max pitch count as was previously true.

1993 is no accident. It was an expansion year.

Dusty Baker Strikes Again

Has Dusty Baker lost his mind?

First, he batted Adam Dunn second in the order. That makes NO sense. He has 40+ home runs each of the last four years, but you are sending him up where the guys on base will consist of Norris Hopper and Paul Bako, if it is a really lucky night. Plus, the guy is a strikeout machine, and slow as Christmas.

Second, Baker left Bronson Arroyo in to rot and die on the mound. Who lets their pitcher get touched for 11 hits and a walk in one inning???!!! And 10 earned runs in 1 inning? This is a veteran pitcher who is already struggling. What is gained by humiliating him?

I wrote something similar last year in connection with a performance by Jon Garland (later matched, in a bad way, by Jason Jennings and Yovani Gallardo). It doesn't surprise me that Ozzie Guillen, Ned Yost and Phil Garner all make the list with Dusty, but it does surprise me that all three of these guys had substantial major league careers but expect the pitcher to take this kind of abuse.

Maybe it's just bullpen management and I'm overreacting.

BTW, Arroyo is just the 6th pitcher in the last 51 years to give up more than 10 runs in 1 inning or less.

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 22, 2008

Pretty average on the pitching predictions, dragged down by Kyle Davies. I should have known that one was off. Others were just weird, like Dempster going 8 (surprise), giving up 10 hits (surprise) and then only 1 run on those 10 hits.

The hitting and W-L predictors were excellent today.


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Cueto    (CIN)  5.0  6   1   3   5   4  16%   51%
5.0  4   0   0   7   1  Grade: B-
Pettitte (NYY)  6.0  6   0   2   5   2  18%   17%
6.0  4   0   2   4   0  Grade: A-
------------------------------------------------
Piniero  (STL)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  30%   19%
7.0  7   1   0   1   2  Grade: B-
Lester   (BOS)  5.1  5   1   3   4   2  13%   19%
7.1  9   0   1   3   2  Grade: C-
------------------------------------------------
Vazquez  (CHW)  6.2  6   1   2   8   2  39%   23%
6.0  5   2   5   4   4  Grade: C+
Dempster (CHC)  6.0  5   0   2   5   2  25%   11%
8.0 10   0   1   4   1  Grade: D+
------------------------------------------------
Byrd     (CLE)  6.0  7   1   1   3   2  34%   28%
7.0  7   1   0   1   4  Grade: B
Billing..(LAD)  6.0  5   0   2   8   2  22%   11%
5.0  8   0   1   4   3  Grade: C+
------------------------------------------------
Silva    (SEA)  6.0  7   0   1   3   3  35%   30%
4.0  9   3   0   1   4  Grade: C- (bomb bonus)
Hudson   (ATL)  6.2  7   0   1   4   2  24%    8%
7.0  4   0   4   2   0  Grade: B-
------------------------------------------------
Weaver   (LAA)  5.2  6   1   2   4   3  29%   35%
5.1  4   0   3   6   1  Grade: B-
Hamels   (PHI)  6.2  6   1   1   5   2  19%   12%
7.0  6   1   0   4   3  Grade: A
------------------------------------------------
Lincecum (SFG)  6.1  6   0   2   6   2  47%   23%
5.0  6   0   2   8   5  Grade: C+
Davies   (KCR)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  22%   16%
1.1  6   0   2   1   5  Grade: F (bomb penalty)
------------------------------------------------
Miller   (FLA)  5.0  5   0   3   4   2  39%   26%
4.0  7   0   2   1   4  Grade: C+
Duchsch..(OAK)  6.0  5   0   1   5   2  22%    8%
7.2  6   1   2   3   1  Grade: C+
------------------------------------------------
McGowan  (TOR)  6.0  6   0   2   5   2  42%   25%
5.0  9   0   1   2   3  Grade: B-
Snell    (PIT)  6.1  7   0   2   5   2  18%   16%
4.0  8   1   4   2   4  Grade: D
------------------------------------------------
Padilla  (TEX)  5.2  7   0   2   4   2  32%   32%
7.0  5   2   2   5   3  Grade: C+
Lannan   (WAS)  5.2  7   0   2   4   2  16%   15%
6.0  4   2   0   6   2  Grade: B
------------------------------------------------
Verlander(DET)  6.2  6   0   2   5   2  45%   24%
5.1  5   1   5  10   2  Grade: C+
Wolf     (SDP)  5.2  6   1   2   5   2  18%   14%
6.0  6   1   4  10   2  Grade: A

Big Games: 16-54 10R 14RBI, 3DBL, 5HR

Game Winners: 7-4

Predict-a-Matic: June 22, 2008

Looks like eleven games is about all I can manage in the 1 hour of time I've allotted for this activity.


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Cueto    (CIN)  5.0  6   1   3   5   4  16%   51%
Pettitte (NYY)  6.0  6   0   2   5   2  18%   17%
Piniero  (STL)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  30%   19%
Lester   (BOS)  5.1  5   1   3   4   2  13%   19%
Vazquez  (CHW)  6.2  6   1   2   8   2  39%   23%
Dempster (CHC)  6.0  5   0   2   5   2  25%   11%
Byrd     (CLE)  6.0  7   1   1   3   2  34%   28%
Billing..(LAD)  6.0  5   0   2   8   2  22%   11%
Silva    (SEA)  6.0  7   0   1   3   3  35%   30%
Hudson   (ATL)  6.2  7   0   1   4   2  24%    8%
Weaver   (LAA)  5.2  6   1   2   4   3  29%   35%
Hamels   (PHI)  6.2  6   1   1   5   2  19%   12%
Lincecum (SFG)  6.1  6   0   2   6   2  47%   23%
Davies   (KCR)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  22%   16%
Miller   (FLA)  5.0  5   0   3   4   2  39%   26%
Duchsch..(OAK)  6.0  5   0   1   5   2  22%    8%
McGowan  (TOR)  6.0  6   0   2   5   2  42%   25%
Snell    (PIT)  6.1  7   0   2   5   2  18%   16%
Padilla  (TEX)  5.2  7   0   2   4   2  32%   32%
Lannan   (WAS)  5.2  7   0   2   4   2  16%   15%
Verlander(DET)  6.2  6   0   2   5   2  45%   24%
Wolf     (SDP)  5.2  6   1   2   5   2  18%   14%

Big Games: A-Rod, Giambi, Ludwick, Glaus, A.Ramirez, Kent, Loney, McCann, Teixeira, V.Guerrero, Burrell, Howard, B.Molina, Hamilton, Dukes

Game Winners: Yankees, Boston, Cubs, Dodgers, Atlanta, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Oakland, Pittsburgh (tossup), Washington, Detroit (tossup)

Saturday, June 21, 2008

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 21, 2008

Pitching predictions were about average, though I can't do much better than the Wandy Rodriguez and Daniel Cabrera predictions. I'm only truly disappointed in the Pedro Martinez and Ubaldo Jimenez results.

Big game predictions were about normal for this system...didn't predict BA very well, but the homers, runs and rbi are considerably better than average. The win-loss predictor did nothing again.

Overall a B- for the day.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Contreras(CHW) 6.1 7 0 2 4 2 31% 33%
3.1 10 3 2 1 9 Grade: D (bomb bonus)
Marquis (CHC) 5.2 6 0 2 4 2 18% 18%
7.0 8 2 1 4 5 Grade: C-
---------------------------------------------------
Sabathia (CLE) 7.0 7 0 1 6 2 44% 21%
7.0 5 1 1 10 1 Grade: A-(stud bonus)
Park (LAD) 6.0 7 2 3 5 4 3% 59%
5.0 3 1 2 9 1 Grade: D (stud penalty)
--------------------------------------------------
Rodriguez(HOU) 5.2 6 0 2 5 2 37% 28%
5.2 5 1 2 6 2 Grade: A
Jackson (TBR) 5.1 6 1 3 4 3 17% 24%
6.1 5 1 3 3 2 Grade: B+
-------------------------------------------------
Washburn (SEA) 5.2 7 1 2 3 3 27% 38%
5.2 6 0 3 8 1 Grade: B-
Jurrjens (ATL) 5.2 6 0 2 4 2 27% 9%
6.0 3 0 2 4 0 Grade: B
-------------------------------------------------
Owings (ARI) 5.2 6 0 1 4 2 38% 26%
6.1 5 0 1 3 3 Grade: B
Blackburn(MIN) 6.2 8 0 1 4 3 12% 21%
7.0 3 0 0 3 1 Grade: C-(stud penalty)
-------------------------------------------------
Saunders (LAA) 5.2 7 1 2 4 3 27% 39%
7.0 5 1 2 3 2 Grade: B-
Myers (PHI) 7.0 7 1 2 6 3 10% 26%
7.2 6 3 2 7 4 Grade: B
-------------------------------------------------
Correia (SFG) 7.0 7 1 2 5 3 32% 32%
5.0 6 0 4 2 3 Grade: C
Meche (KCR) 6.1 7 0 2 4 2 18% 16%
5.2 3 0 2 7 1 Grade: B-(stud penalty)
-------------------------------------------------
Cabrera (BAL) 6.0 6 1 3 5 3 25% 44%
6.0 7 1 3 8 3 Grade: A
McClung (MIL) 6.1 5 0 2 6 2 24% 12%
6.2 3 1 5 6 2 Grade: A-
-------------------------------------------------
Nolasco (FLA) 5.2 6 1 2 4 3 29% 38%
7.0 7 0 1 3 3 Grade: B
Eveland (OAK) 5.1 5 0 3 5 2 22% 11%
6.1 8 0 2 4 2 Grade: B
-------------------------------------------------
Litsch (TOR) 5.2 7 1 1 3 2 36% 29%
6.0 5 3 1 2 6 Grade: C+(bomb bonus)
Maholm (PIT) 6.1 7 0 1 4 2 14% 17%
7.0 7 0 3 1 3 Grade: B+
-------------------------------------------------
Martinez (NYM) 5.2 6 0 1 6 2 49% 19%
4.1 9 1 5 6 Grade: D (bomb penalty)
Jimenez (COL) 5.1 5 0 3 5 2 20% 17%
8.0 2 0 4 2 1 Grade: D (stud penalty)


Big Games: 19-73, 10R, 13RBI, 5HR

Game Winners:
6-5

Predict-a-Matic: June 21, 2008

Eleven of the 15 games today, avoiding the mystery pitchers in CIN @ NYY, STL @ BOS, and TEX @ WAS, and just plain not interested in DET @ SD.


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Contreras(CHW) 6.1 7 0 2 4 2 31% 33%
Marquis (CHC) 5.2 6 0 2 4 2 18% 18%
Sabathia (CLE) 7.0 7 0 1 6 2 44% 21%
Park (LAD) 6.0 7 2 3 5 4 3% 59%
Rodriguez(HOU) 5.2 6 0 2 5 2 37% 28%
Jackson (TBR) 5.1 6 1 3 4 3 17% 24%
Washburn (SEA) 5.2 7 1 2 3 3 27% 38%
Jurrjens (ATL) 5.2 6 0 2 4 2 27% 9%
Owings (ARI) 5.2 6 0 1 4 2 38% 26%
Blackburn(MIN) 6.2 8 0 1 4 3 12% 21%
Saunders (LAA) 5.2 7 1 2 4 3 27% 39%
Myers (PHI) 7.0 7 1 2 6 3 10% 26%
Correia (SFG) 7.0 7 1 2 5 3 32% 32%
Meche (KCR) 6.1 7 0 2 4 2 18% 16%
Cabrera (BAL) 6.0 6 1 3 5 3 25% 44%
McClung (MIL) 6.1 5 0 2 6 2 24% 12%
Nolasco (FLA) 5.2 6 1 2 4 3 29% 38%
Eveland (OAK) 5.1 5 0 3 5 2 22% 11%
Litsch (TOR) 5.2 7 1 1 3 2 36% 29%
Maholm (PIT) 6.1 7 0 1 4 2 14% 17%
Martinez (NYM) 5.2 6 0 1 6 2 49% 19%
Jimenez (COL) 5.1 5 0 3 5 2 20% 17%

Big Games: Dye, Soto, Sizemore, Francisco, Garko, C.Lee, Berkman, C.Jones, Teixeira, C.Jackson, Tracy, Kotchman, V.Guerrero, Burrell, Scott, Branyan, Fielder, Cust, Chavez, McLouth, Wright

Game Winners: Cubs (tossup), Cleveland, Houston (tossup), Atlanta, Arizona (tossup), Philadelphia, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Mets

April 9, 1978

All of the individual opening days having occurred, the teams could begin to settle into the idea of the long season, and getting off to a hot start.

Expos at Mets

Notable only because it was a scheduled Sunday doubleheader, something you just don't see anymore, thanks to the MLB Players Association. The teams split. Expos pitcher Wayne Twitchell managed to walk five batters in the first 1.1 innings of game 1, before being pulled. Ross Grimsley pitched a shutout for the Expos in game 2.

Another sign of the times? Gary Carter caught both ends of the doubleheader. All 18 innings.

Cubs at Pirates

Cubs won this game 4-3, but something else caught my eye. Bill Buckner stole two bases in this game. Not exactly remembered for his speed and agility, thanks largely to his time in Boston when his knees were shot. He stole both off the battery of Jerry Reuss and Manny Sanguillen. I don't know anything about Reuss' pickoff move, but I know he was a lefty, which tends to suppress steals of second. Not a junkballer either. The James/Neyer Guide to Pitchers says he threw mostly fastballs, and quotes Steve Yeager as saying he might throw as many as 5 curveballs a game. Sanguillen was known as an average defensive catcher.

Bruce Sutter was no doubt relieved to get the save after his prior performance.

Dodgers at Braves

Bruce Froemming, to whom I dedicated several posts last year in his final year of umpiring. was behind the plate for the first time during the 1978 season. To put his career in perspective, this was already his 1.128th game, and his 282nd behind the plate. Dodgers won. Get used to it.

Royals at Indians

The Royals look like they are going to run. U.L. Washington stole 3 bases in this game, and Wilson added another. That's two games, and six steals. Whitey Herzog manages. Royals win.

Blue Jays at Tigers

Willie Upshaw made his major league debut as a pinch hitter for John Mayberry, who had just come over from the Royals 5 days ago. Upshaw went 1-for-2, .

Garth Iorg debuted as well. His brother Dane debuted with Philadelphia on the exact same day the year before. Together the brothers would play 18 years in the majors.

Cale Iorg plays A+ ball in Lakeland (Tigers), Eli Iorg plays AA ball in Corpus Christi (Astros) and Isaac Iorg played in the Braves and Blue Jays minor league systems, wrapping up his career in 2004. Cale may be a prospect, or may not be, depending on how much baseball skill he lost during a two year Mormon mission.

Orioles at Brewers

The Brewers are still scoring runs in bunches, behind Cecil Cooper's 4 RBI. They chase Scott McGregor in the 4th inning, burdening him with 10 earned runs. Needless to say, McGregor is not the early season leader in ERA. He is, however, a talented pitcher, and his season-ending ERA will show it.

If you are keeping track (unlikely), the Brewers have now scored 40 runs in three games. I wonder if the Yankees are excited about facing them in the next series. Baltimore's pitching staff isn't exactly a pushover.

Red Sox at White Sox

Two teams named Sox. Two complete games. Boston's from the Spaceman Bill Lee was a shutout. The other from White Sox 37-year-old Wilbur Wood. Jim Rice homered. He's gonna have a good year.

Twins at Mariners

Smalley (MIN) and Bochte (SEA) each homer. Those are your MLB leaders in home runs.

Yankees at Rangers

Ed Figueroa went the distance and gave up only one run, and managed to strike out only two. But that's not why I'm mentioning the game.

Willie Randolph went 2-for-5 and stole a base. Fast forwarding 30 years, he needs some good news this week.

***

Brewers, Reds and Dodgers have yet to lose. Astros, Braves and Orioles have yet to win. One of those teams is out of place.

Friday, June 20, 2008

San Diego Padres Power

After 11 games, I did a post about the Padres power outage. The team was averaging fewer than 2 extra base hits in those games. My conclusion was that the Padres were struggling because they hadn't played many games outside Petco and because the sample size was too small.

Through yesterday's games, the Pads had played 74 games, 38 at home and 36 on the road. They now have 199 extra base hits, or 2.7 per game. At home, they are averaging 2.6 per game, and on the road, 2.8. So the home/road and sample size explanations hold up.

One other thing was in the original post...a table showing the Padres were hitting up the middle and to the opposite field more frequently, which tends to reduce slugging percentages. Here's the original chart.

Pull Middle OppField
2008 22% 57% 21%
05-07 28% 54% 18%


Now here's the chart with updated figures:

Pull Middle OppField
2008 36% 47% 17%
05-07 28% 54% 18%


That's an incredible shift. Not only has the pull percentage gone up, it has skyrocketed above the 05-07 averages. The opposite field percentage has regressed to the mean, but the team is hitting less to the middle and more to the pull side.

Monday, June 16, 2008

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 16, 2008

Pitching predictions were all over the place, but overall not too bad. Anytime half of the predictions are B or better, I feel pretty good. Big game predictor wasn't much help, though the BA is respectable and the R and RBI figures are high. W-L predictor was useless.


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Jurrjens (ATL) 5.0 5 0 2 5 2 46% 22%
7.2 8 0 2 7 0 Grade: D+ (stud bonus)
Jimenez (COL) 5.0 5 0 3 4 2 15% 18%
5.0 4 0 5 7 2 Grade: A
--------------------------------------------------
Colon (BOS) 5.2 6 1 2 5 3 27% 37%
4.0 6 3 2 4 4 Grade: B- (bomb bonus)
Hamels (PHI) 6.1 6 1 2 6 2 18% 13%
7.0 7 2 2 5 2 Grade: B+
--------------------------------------------------
Verlander(DET) 6.1 7 0 2 6 2 40% 25%
6.0 5 1 1 7 2 Grade: A-
Lincecum (SFG) 6.1 6 0 2 6 2 19% 16%
7.0 5 2 3 3 4 Grade: C+
--------------------------------------------------
Miller (FLA) 5.1 6 0 2 3 2 36% 28%
7.0 6 0 2 2 1 Grade: B+ (stud bonus)
Silva (SEA) 5.2 8 1 1 3 3 13% 24%
4.2 5 0 1 4 3 Grade: B
--------------------------------------------------
Pelfrey (NYM) 5.2 8 0 3 3 3 31% 38%
6.0 6 0 1 0 3 Grade: A-
Weaver (LAA) 5.2 6 0 2 3 2 18% 12%
6.1 8 2 1 5 6 Grade: D+ (bomb penalty)

Big Games: .261, 3R, 5RBI

Game Winners: 2-3

Predict-a-Matic: June 16, 2008

Only five games on the schedule, so I did all five.


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Jurrjens (ATL) 5.0 5 0 2 5 2 46% 22%
Jimenez (COL) 5.0 5 0 3 4 2 15% 18%
Colon (BOS) 5.2 6 1 2 5 3 27% 37%
Hamels (PHI) 6.1 6 1 2 6 2 18% 13%
Verlander(DET) 6.1 7 0 2 6 2 40% 25%
Saunders (SFG) 6.1 6 0 2 6 2 19% 16%
Miller (FLA) 5.1 6 0 2 3 2 36% 28%
Silva (SEA) 5.2 8 1 1 3 3 13% 24%
Pelfrey (NYM) 5.2 8 0 3 3 3 31% 38%
Weaver (LAA) 5.2 6 0 2 3 2 18% 12%
Big Games: C.Jones, Teixeira, Utley, Burrell, C.Ross, Uggla

Game Winners: Atlanta, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Seattle (tossup), Angels

Sunday, June 15, 2008

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 15, 2008

A very good day all around for the Predict-A-Matic. The six A grades are a record. The blemishes were an even worse performance from Homer Bailey than expected (though not all that surprising), and Micah Owings getting smashed by the Royals, despite a low bomb%.

The Big Games predictor rebounded, for a .342 average, 14 runs, 16 RBI and 5 homers. The power numbers remain above average, and the BA was obviously top notch.

The WL predictor also fared well, at 7-4, for a .636 percentage.

Overall grade: B+


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Gabbard (TEX) 4.1 5 0 3 3 2 35% 31%
5.2 8 0 3 4 4 Grade: C+ (bomb bonus)
Martinez (NYM) 6.0 6 0 1 6 2 26% 7%
6.0 6 0 1 4 1 Grade: A
--------------------------------------------------
Millwood (TEX) 5.1 7 0 2 4 2 33% 33%
6.0 5 2 4 5 2 Grade: B
Maine (NYM) 6.0 5 1 2 7 2 18% 13%
6.1 7 1 0 5 5 Grade: B-
--------------------------------------------------
Campillo (ATL) 7.1 7 1 2 6 3 30% 39%
8.0 7 1 0 7 2 Grade: A (stud bonus)
Saunders (LAA) 6.0 6 1 2 4 2 14% 20%
7.1 6 0 0 3 0 Grade: C (stud penalty)
--------------------------------------------------
Beckett (BOS) 6.2 6 1 1 9 2 42% 22%
7.0 6 0 2 6 0 Grade: B+(stud bonus)
Bailey (CIN) 4.2 5 0 3 3 2 15% 21%
2.1 4 3 3 0 5 Grade: F
--------------------------------------------------
Lilly (CHC) 6.0 6 1 2 5 2 37% 25%
6.0 1 0 5 6 0 Grade: B-(stud bonus)
Litsch (TOR) 5.2 6 1 1 3 2 16% 22%
6.1 8 0 1 2 5 Grade: C+
--------------------------------------------------
Meche (KCR) 6.0 6 1 2 6 3 33% 34%
7.1 4 0 1 10 3 Grade: B (stud bonus)
Owings (ARI) 6.0 6 0 1 5 2 19% 13%
5.1 8 1 2 4 7 Grade: D (bomb penalty)
--------------------------------------------------
Kershaw (LAD) 4.2 5 1 3 5 3 32% 36%
4.0 2 0 2 2 0 Grade: C
Robertson(DET) 6.0 7 0 2 4 2 16% 18%
6.0 4 0 0 3 0 Grade: B
--------------------------------------------------
Baker (MIN) 6.0 6 1 1 6 3 31% 35%
6.0 7 1 2 9 3 Grade: A
McClung (MIL) 6.1 5 0 2 5 2 21% 21%
6.0 4 1 0 4 2 Grade: A
--------------------------------------------------
Eveland (OAK) 5.2 5 0 3 4 2 47% 19%
6.2 6 0 3 5 1 Grade: B+
Correia (SFG) 6.1 7 1 3 6 3 15% 25%
5.1 7 0 2 4 5 Grade: B-
--------------------------------------------------
Maholm (PIT) 5.2 7 1 2 4 3 23% 42%
6.0 4 2 3 4 2 Grade: B+
Cabrera (BAL) 6.0 6 1 3 4 3 10% 30%
6.0 6 1 5 2 4 Grade: A
--------------------------------------------------
Maddux (SDP) 5.2 6 0 1 3 2 41% 24%
6.0 8 1 0 2 2 Grade: A
Sabathia (CLE) 6.2 7 1 1 6 2 16% 15%
8.0 6 0 1 10 3 Grade: C+

Big Games: .342, 5HR, 14R, 16RBI

Game Winners: 7-4

Predict-a-Matic: June 15, 2008

Ten games today, plus the postponed game from yesterday


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Gabbard (TEX) 4.1 5 0 3 3 2 35% 31%
Martinez (NYM) 6.0 6 0 1 6 2 26% 7%
Millwood (TEX) 5.1 7 0 2 4 2 33% 33%
Maine (NYM) 6.0 5 1 2 7 2 18% 13%
Campillo (ATL) 7.1 7 1 2 6 3 30% 39%
Saunders (LAA) 6.0 6 1 2 4 2 14% 20%
Beckett (BOS) 6.2 6 1 1 9 2 42% 22%
Bailey (CIN) 4.2 5 0 3 3 2 15% 21%
Lilly (CHC) 6.0 6 1 2 5 2 37% 25%
Litsch (TOR) 5.2 6 1 1 3 2 16% 22%
Meche (KCR) 6.0 6 1 2 6 3 33% 34%
Owings (ARI) 6.0 6 0 1 5 2 19% 13%
Kershaw (LAD) 4.2 5 1 3 5 3 32% 36%
Robertson(DET) 6.0 7 0 2 4 2 16% 18%
Baker (MIN) 6.0 6 1 1 6 3 31% 35%
McClung (MIL) 6.1 5 0 2 5 2 21% 21%
Eveland (OAK) 5.2 5 0 3 4 2 47% 19%
Correia (SFG) 6.1 7 1 3 6 3 15% 25%
Maholm (PIT) 5.2 7 1 2 4 3 23% 42%
Cabrera (BAL) 6.0 6 1 3 4 3 10% 30%
Maddux (SDP) 5.2 6 0 1 3 2 41% 24%
Sabathia (CLE) 6.2 7 1 1 6 2 16% 15%


Big Games: Beltran (gm1 & gm2), Delgado (gm2), C.Jones, Teixeira, Lowell, M.Ramirez, Fukudome, A.Ramirez, Tracy, Kent, Cabrera, Thames, C.Guillen, Branyan, Fielder, Braun, Cust, Chavez, McLouth, Doumit, Millar, Scott, R.Hernandez

Game Winners: Mets (gm1), Mets (gm2), Atlanta, Boston, Cubs (tossup), Arizona, Detroit, Milwaukee, Oakland (tossup), Baltimore, Cleveland

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 14, 2008

Pitching grades are pretty good. This is the first time I've used a "system" for the grades. Before I assigned grades based on how accurate I felt the predictions were. Now I use an objective method.

There is still a subjective element, however. If the pitcher gave a stud performance and his stud% was high, I give myself extra credit for predicting the possibility of a stud performance. Likewise if the pitcher bombed and his bomb% was high. In this case, I'd say the percentages have to be 28% or more to get the bonus. I'm not sure that's the "right" cutoff, but it isn't exactly scientific.

Conversely, if a pitcher gave a stud performance and his stud% was very low, I should be docked a grade for not realizing the stud possibility. Likewise for a pitcher who bombs when his bomb% was low. On the low side, I'd say the percentages have to be about 14% or lower.

The Big Games predictions were pretty bad -- not unexpected, since predicting four ABs out of an entire season's worth is pretty much impossible. The power numbers were pretty good. The batting average was horrible.

And the W-L predictor was also bad. Pure randomness could have gotten me to .500.

A C- for the whole day, I think.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Wakefield (BOS) 5.2 6 1 2 5 2 31% 32%
7.0 4 2 2 6 2 Grade: B+ (stud bonus)
Volquez (CIN) 6.0 5 0 3 8 2 24% 12%
7.0 7 0 1 9 2 Grade: B+
--------------------------------------------------
Marquis (CHC) 5.2 6 0 2 3 2 38% 31%
7.0 4 0 2 1 1 Grade: B (stud bonus)
Halladay (TOR) 7.1 7 0 1 5 2 17% 14%
5.0 7 1 1 5 2 Grade: B-
--------------------------------------------------
de laRosa(COL) 5.1 7 1 2 4 3 20% 46%
5.0 1 0 1 8 0 Grade: D+
Danks (CHW) 5.1 6 1 2 5 3 15% 18%
6.0 5 0 1 6 0 Grade: C+
--------------------------------------------------
Hendrickson(FLA)6.0 7 1 2 4 3 29% 33%
5.0 4 1 3 6 3 Grade: B
Garza (TBR) 5.1 6 0 2 5 2 15% 19%
7.0 3 0 1 3 1 Grade: C
--------------------------------------------------
Penny (LAD) 6.0 7 0 2 4 2 35% 28%
3.2 7 2 2 0 7 Grade: D (bomb bonus)
Bonine (DET) 6.0 7 0 1 2 2 20% 15%
(rookie debut) 5.1 9 1 0 2 6 Grade: C
--------------------------------------------------
Perkins (MIN) 6.2 8 1 3 6 4 13% 62%
6.0 8 1 1 6 3 Grade: A-
Suppan (MIL) 6.1 7 0 2 3 2 20% 15%
7.0 7 0 1 5 2 Grade: A
--------------------------------------------------
Mussina (NYY) 5.1 7 0 1 3 2 40% 24%
6.0 6 1 0 4 3 Grade: B+
Rodriquez(HOU) 5.2 6 1 2 5 2 19% 14%
5.0 6 1 3 1 5 Grade: C+ (bomb penalty)
--------------------------------------------------
Eaton (PHI) 5.1 6 1 3 3 3 33% 33%
6.2 9 1 1 2 3 Grade: B-
Lohse (STL) 5.2 6 1 2 4 2 15% 16%
8.0 4 1 2 3 2 Grade: C+
--------------------------------------------------
Gabbard (TEX) (ppd)
Martinez (NYM) (ppd)

Big Games: .226, 12R, 12RBI, 6HR

Game Winners: 4-4

Saturday, June 14, 2008

Predict-a-Matic: June 14, 2008

After the poor showing of the Predict-A-Matic the other day, I was torn between trying to tweak the system and simply accepting that calculating an average performance over 1,000 games is never going to predict the exact stats for the game.

I compromised. I reduced the sims to 500 games, which makes them a little less stable. That makes them more "guessy" but also allows for more outlying performances to be a factor. It's almost like adding a degree of randomness. I also decided to go with the median performance weighted at 80%, with Top 10% and Bottom 10% performances weighted in.

And finally, I changed the last two columns to Stud% and Bomb% to give an idea how likely it is the performance will vary widely.
Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Wakefield (BOS) 5.2 6 1 2 5 2 31% 32%
Volquez (CIN) 6.0 5 0 3 8 2 24% 12%
Marquis (CHC) 5.2 6 0 2 3 2 38% 31%
Halladay (TOR) 7.1 7 0 1 5 2 17% 14%
de laRosa(COL) 5.1 7 1 2 4 3 20% 46%
Danks (CHW) 5.1 6 1 2 5 3 15% 18%
Hendrickson(FLA)6.0 7 1 2 4 3 29% 33%
Garza (TBR) 5.1 6 0 2 5 2 15% 19%
Penny (LAD) 6.0 7 0 2 4 2 35% 28%
Bonine (DET) 6.0 7 0 1 2 2 20% 15%
(rookie debut alert)
Perkins (MIN) 6.2 8 1 3 6 4 13% 62%
Suppan (MIL) 6.1 7 0 2 3 2 20% 15%
Mussina (NYY) 5.1 7 0 1 3 2 40% 24%
Rodriquez(HOU) 5.2 6 1 2 5 2 19% 14%
Eaton (PHI) 5.1 6 1 3 3 3 33% 33%
Lohse (STL) 5.2 6 1 2 4 2 15% 16%
Gabbard (TEX) 4.1 5 0 3 3 2 35% 31%
Martinez (NYM) 6.0 6 0 1 6 2 26% 7%


Big Games: Dunn, Votto, Griffey, Stairs, Holliday, Hawpe, Spilborghs, Konerko, Dye, Swisher, C.Ross, Cantu, H.Ramirez, Longoria, Kent, Morneau, Branyan,Braun, Fielder, A-Rod,Lee, Berkman, Burrell, Duncan, Glaus, Ludwick, Beltran

Game Winners: Cincinnati, Toronto, Colorado, Tampa Bay (toss-up), Detroit, Milwaukee, Houston, St. Louis, Mets

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 11, 2008

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER 4+Runs 5+Runs
Webb (ARI) 7.0 7 0 2 5 2 21% 12%
5.0 5 0 0 4 3 Grade: C
Pelfrey (NYM) 6.2 6 0 3 4 3 29% 17%
8.0 5 0 2 8 1 Grade: C

Vazquez (CHW) 6.2 6 1 1 7 2 26% 12%
6.0 10 1 3 9 5 Grade: C
Verlander (DET) 6.1 6 1 2 5 3 33% 20%
9.0 4 0 0 3 1 Grade: D

Billingsley(LAD)6.2 6 - 2 6 2 20% 11%
7.0 8 2 1 3 4 Grade: B-
Wolf (SDP) 6.1 6 0 1 5 2 14% 7%
7.0 4 1 1 9 1 Grade: B

Rasner (NYY) 5.0 5 0 1 3 2 21% 11%
3.2 9 0 1 4 6 Grade: D
Duchscherer(OAK)6.1 6 0 2 4 2 27% 14%
7.0 5 1 1 4 1 Grade: B+

Kazmir (TBR) 6.1 6 0 2 6 2 22% 13%
6.2 6 1 3 10 3 Grade: B+
Lackey (LAA)) 6.2 6 0 2 6 2 24% 14%
7.1 4 0 2 7 2 Grade: A-

Lincecum (SFG) 6.1 5 0 3 8 2 18% 10%
7.0 6 0 3 9 0 Grade: B
Jimenez (COL) 5.2 5 0 2 5 2 20% 12%
7.0 4 0 1 3 0 Grade: C+

Jurrjens (ATL) 5.1 6 0 2 4 2 24% 13%
DNP-Injury
Dempster (CHC) 7.0 6 0 4 5 3 31% 18%
9.0 4 1 0 11 2 Grade: D

Blackburn(MIN) 6.1 8 1 1 4 4 49% 32%
6.0 7 1 1 5 2 Grade: B+
Byrd (CLE) 6.0 7 1 1 3 3 32% 19%
3.0 6 1 1 0 5 Grade: D

Padilla (TEX) 5.2 7 0 2 4 3 37% 23%
6.0 7 1 3 2 4 Grade: A-
Davies (KCR) 5.0 6 1 3 3 3 32% 20%
6.0 6 0 5 3 1 Grade: B-



Big Games:

Conor Jackson (2-6)
Jim Thome (0-3)
Teixeira (0-4)
McCann (0-2)
Morneau (2-5, 1R, 3RBI)
Kubel (3-4, 1R, 2RBI, 1HR)
Sizemore (2-5, 1R, 3RBI, 1HR)
Garko (0-3)
Peralta (0-3)
Delucci (skeptical) (0-3, 1R)
Hamilton (3-6, 1R, 1RBI)
Bradley (skeptical) (0-3, 1R)
Catalanotto (0-2)
Guillen (3-5)
Buck (skeptical) (0-4)

Game Winners: Arizona, White Sox, San Diego, Oakland, Angels, Giants (but toss-up), Cubs, Cleveland, Rangers (but toss-up)
(5-4)

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Predict-a-Matic: June 11, 2008

Having made some refinements to my in-season game simulator, I'm going to test the results for the first time this year. The refinements really fall into two categories: First, a smoothing, taking into account the numbers this year AND last year. This is particularly important early in the season to mitigate small sample sizes. Second, after reading The Book, by Tango, Dolphin and Lichtmann, I realized I was putting too much stock in platoon splits. Now, to obtain the threshold PAs necessary to observe the splits, I use career splits instead of current year. Both of these changes could be considered "smoothing" of the data.

I'm only going to do 9 of the games, mostly because I'm pressed for time. I'm not just being selective. These happen to be the 9 games that have the most fantasy impact for my teams.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER 4+Runs 5+Runs
Webb (ARI) 7.0 7 0 2 5 2 21% 12%
Pelfrey (NYM) 6.2 6 0 3 4 3 29% 17%

Vazquez (CHW) 6.2 6 1 1 7 2 26% 12%
Verlander (DET) 6.1 6 1 2 5 3 33% 20%

Billingsley(LAD)6.2 6 - 2 6 2 20% 11%
Wolf (SDP) 6.1 6 0 1 5 2 14% 7%

Rasner (NYY) 5.0 5 0 1 3 2 21% 11%
Duchscherer(OAK)6.1 6 0 2 4 2 27% 14%

Kazmir (TBR) 6.1 6 0 2 6 2 22% 13%
Lackey (LAA)) 6.2 6 - 2 6 2 24% 14%

Lincecum (SFG) 6.1 5 0 3 8 2 18% 10%
Jimenez (COL) 5.2 5 0 2 5 2 20% 12%

Jurrjens (ATL) 5.1 6 0 2 4 2 24% 13%
Dempster (CHC) 7.0 6 0 4 5 3 31% 18%

Blackburn(MIN) 6.1 8 1 1 4 4 49% 32%
Byrd (CLE) 6.0 7 1 1 3 3 32% 19%

Padilla (TEX) 5.2 7 0 2 4 3 37% 23%
Davies (KCR) 5.0 6 1 3 3 3 32% 20%



Big Games:

Conor Jackson
Jim Thome
Teixeira
McCann
Morneau
Kubel
Sizemore
Garko
Peralta
Delucci (skeptical)
Hamilton
Bradley (skeptical)
Catalanotto
Guillen
Buck (skeptical)

Game Winners: Arizona, White Sox, San Diego, Oakland, Angels, Giants (but toss-up), Cubs, Cleveland, Rangers (but toss-up)

April 8, 1978

Three days after opening day, and four teams have yet to play a game. That will be remedied today (Saturday), with Kansas City at Cleveland, and the Yankees at Texas. Games of note:

Kansas City at Cleveland

It might be hard for anyone to remember, but the Royals were a good team in the late '70s/early '80s. In 1977 they had run away with the AL West, winning 102 games and finishing 8 games ahead of the Rangers. Cleveland lived at the other end of the spectrum, winning only 71 games in 1977.

Despite those 102 wins, the Royals had actually upgraded for 1977. They brought back most of the infield (George Brett, Fred Patek and Frank White), outfield (Amos Otis and Al Cowens), catcher (Darrell Porter) and DH (Hal McRae). Otis happens to be one of the best players most people today have forgotten or never heard of.

In left field, however, they would be sporting a speedy Willie Wilson instead of the forgettable Tom Poquette -- no, he's not the voice of Motel 6. That's Tom Bodett. At first base, they replaced an underperforming John Mayberry with the slightly better Pete LaCock. They "sold" Mayberry to the Blue Jays 2 days before the 1978 season started.

They also retained Dennis Leonard, Paul Splittorff and Andy Hassler in the starting rotation, but moved Larry Gura from the bullpen to start 26 games and brought up Rich Gale. And, instead of closing with the less-than-stellar Doug Bird, they'd have the Mad Hungarian, Al Hrabosky, who they obtained in a trade with the Cardinals for Mark Littell and future broadcaster Buck Martinez.

The Royals sported three of the strangest names in baseball, with Splittorff, LaCock (French for "rooster") and Joe Zdeb. "Zdeb's dead baby, Zdeb's dead."

As good as the Royals' lineup looked, the Indians' looked bad. Andre Thornton, Buddy Bell and an aging Rico Carty were the highlights. The lowlights were Frank Duffy (SS), Paul Dade (RF), Duane Kuiper (2b), and Fred Kendall (C), whose greatest accomplishment was siring Jason Kendall. Cleveland's pitching was a combination of talent and scrub. Wayne Garland, a 22-year-old Dennis Eckersley and Jim Bibby had anchored the rotation, but they were followed by Al Fitzmorris and Pat Dobson (past his prime). Similarly, the bullpen had Jim Kern closing and Don Hood setting up, but Sid Monge and Tom Buskey had little to add. They also switched managers mid-season, from Frank Robinson to Jeff Torborg, with no visible improvement.

What was on tap for 1978? Worse. Shorstop, center field and left field continued to be a problem. Gary Alexander improved their bat (but not the glove) at catcher, and Johnny Grubb added a stick to LF. Wayne Garland would get hurt and start only 6 games. None of the other 1977 starters had even one start. That's right: Garland, Eck, Bibby, Fitzmorris and Dobson made 139 starts for Cleveland in 1977, and made 6 in 1978.

Instead, they sported Rick Waits, Rick Wise (actually pretty good, but a down year), Mike Paxton, David Clyde (the #1 pick who was a total bust), Don Hood (setup man the year before) and Dave Freisleben. Well, at least Kern was still closing.

Despite having arguably the best pitching staff in the league in 1977, the Royals gave up 8 runs to Cleveland on this day. The Royals #1 starter, Dennis Leonard, did not make it out of the fifth inning -- no thanks to the left side of the infield, where Brett and Patek each made an error. Brett's error on a grounder by Larvell Blanks in the first inning opened the door to three unearned runs.

Lilliputian Freddie Patek went 2-for-3 with 3 RBI and a rare HR (he hit 55 of them in 14 years). McRae also homered, as did Pruitt and Thornton for the Indians.

Yankees at Texas

New York had won the pennant again in 1977, though they eked it out by 2.5 games against the Orioles and the Red Sox. Sure they won 100 games, but they had two teams nipping at their heels as they collectively beat up on bad teams in Detroit, Cleveland, Milwaukee and Toronto. New York tied with Kansas City for the fewest runs allowed.

The Yankees had one of their great teams in 1977, and returned almost all of them for 1978. This lineup is burned in my memory: Thurman Munson, Chris Chambliss, Willie Randolph, Graig Nettles, Bucky Dent, Roy White, Mickey Rivers, Reggie Jackson and Lou Piniella. The starters had been Ed Figueroa, Mike Torrez, Ron Guidry, Don Gullett and Catfish Hunter. Torrez left in the off-season for Boston, replaced by Jim Beattie. Gullett would be hurt in '78, but Dick Tidrow was moved from the bullpen to start in his place. In '77 Sparky Lyle closed, with Tidrow setting up. In '77, Goose Gossage closed with Lyle setting up. Wow!

Texas, never a good team before (or after) 1977, had won 94 games. Too bad Kansas City rolled over the AL West. The Rangers managed to score a goodly number of runs with Jim Sundberg (C), Mike Hargrove (1b), Bump Wills (2b), Toby Harrah (3b) and Willie Horton (DH). They got solid pitching from Doyle Alexander, Gaylord Perry Bert Blyleven and Dock Ellis. The bullpen was strong, but unspectacular. There was potential for gain.

They added Al Oliver to play left, and he would be their best hitter. Bobby Bonds to play right (but not until May, when he was traded for Claudell Washington and and Rusty Torres). Richie Zisk was added at DH. Unfortunately, Sundberg and Harrah dipped back to league average, and Bump Wills became below average. Not to mention Bert Campaneris hitting .186/.245/.238. That's an OPS of 483, with a slugging percentage LOWER than the on-base percentage and isolated power of .052. Likewise, Alexander and Ellis returned to earth. Jon Matlack was a quality #1 starter, and they added Fergie Jenkins too. So the pitching staff got better, but the hitters would score 75 fewer runs.

Today's game was a tight one. Matlack went the distance, giving up only one run. Guidry went seven innings, doing the same, but Gossage gave up a homer in the bottom of the ninth to Richie Zisk to give the Rangers the 2-1 victory.

Oakland at California

Carney Lansford debuted as a pinch hitter and flied out against the team he would play for soon enough. For the A's, Dwayne Murphy debuted as a defensive replacement in LF...curious, since he became such a good center fielder. Oakland won 4-2.

Baltimore at Milwaukee

Molitor, on the heels of his debut, went 3-for-6 with 2 runs scored and 5 RBI. Milwaukee pounded out 15 hits and scored 16 runs, including a grand slam from Gorman Thomas, and Larry Hisle's second HR of the young season. Dennis Martinez got no one out, as he was pulled after five batters, five hits and five runs. The Orioles also made five errors resulting in five unearned runs. Moose Haas, meanwhile, cruised to the complete game victory. Attendance was a meager 6,470...no, I didn't leave out a number. In Cleveland, there were 52,000.

Minnesota at Seattle

Rod Carew went 3-for-4. Is that even news? He also drove in three. Paul Thomodsgard threw a complete game three hitter for the Twins. Hmmm. I wonder if he is of Scandanavian extraction?

St. Louis at Philadelphia

First shutout of the young season for the Phils, courtesy of Larry Christenson. The Phils gave him seven runs of support. Or did they? Actually, Christenson himself went 2-for-3 and drove in four of the seven runs, including adding a HR. He had hit 3 HR the prior year, with double figure RBI totals. Alas, the four RBI in his first start of 1978 were the only four he would have all year. He would manage two more hits for the season, though.

Cubs at Pirates

Cubs pitchers managed to walk 10 hitters, and still push the game to extra innings. Sutter, pitching in the bottom of the 10th, gave up a double to Steve Brye, intentionally walked Stargell, unintentionally walked Ott to load the bases, and then walked Jim Fregosi for the winning Pirate run. That's got to be one of the worst Sutter performances of his career.


Los Angeles at Atlanta


Dodger juggernaut. 15 hits, but only 6 runs. Reggie Smith was 3-for-5 with three runs, two ribbies and a homer. Steve Yeager had three hits. That didn't happen often. Tommy John got the win. Fat Tub of Goo got the save.

Montreal at Mets

The Expos middle infield (Cash and Speier) went a combined 7-for-10 with three runs and two RBI. The Expos only scored five, in part because Cash and Speier were six hitters apart on the lineup card. Andre Dawson stole two bases...bet you can't remember a day when Dawson was a base stealer, since we watched his gimpy knees for years on WGN. The Mets won in the bottom of the ninth when pinch hitter Ed Kranepool hit a two run jack off Stan Bahnsen.

San Diego at San Francisco

Jim Barr went the distance for the Giants and got the shutout. Didn't walk anyone. Struck out only 1. Poor George Hendrick.

Monday, June 02, 2008

Jeter Loafing?

Never thought I'd wonder if Jeter is loafing (or just not concentrating)...until tonight's game at the Metrodome.

With the Yanks leading 4-2 in the 6th, two outs and a man on first and third, Craig Monroe came to the plate against Andy Pettitte. He hit a chopper over Pettitte's head, to the left of second, but out of Jeter's reach, which isn't really saying much. I like Jeter, but he doesn't have any range. Cano comes out of nowhere, crosses to the SS side of the bag, and fields the grounder. Cano tosses it to Jeter and Jeter is nowhere near the bag. He flails at it with his foot, and the runner is safe. Run scores.

Cano's toss wasn't beautiful, but it was adequate. The problem is that Jeter was out of position. He wasn't standing at 2b, where he should have been. When he saw that he couldn't reach the chopper, he gave up on it. In his defense, he probably did not expect Cano to be closer to a ball on the SS-side of the bag, when the shortstop himself couldn't get it. Still, it is Little League 101 that you run to the base if you can't field it. Jeter gave up on it, and then just sort of watched Cano field it. He was surprised by the throw, and when he got it, realized he couldn't find the bag.

Later, with the score tied, Jeter hit a sharp single to right field. He slowed a little bit coming around first, and then watching the play in RF, decided to head for second. He was gunned down at the bag. The broadcast team said "he was thinking double all the way" but that simply is not true. He let up around first, and then decided to kick it into gear. That let up cost him the double, because it was a pretty close play.

Maybe he wasn't loafing. Maybe he simply wasn't concentrating. They were mental errors too. Apart from slowing up around first, it was a mental error to try for second at all. The Twins have Michael Cuddyer in right field, with a cannon. He had 19 assists last year, which led the major leagues.

Jeter must not be alone. You don't get 19 assists unless people try to run on you. That makes me wonder if Cuddyer is good at baiting the runners into seeking the extra base. Maybe that "bait" is what Jeter saw as he slowed up at first; then he took the bait and tried for second. He was, after all, looking at right field the entire time. He saw something that indicated he should run, and it wasn't a bobble.