Predict-a-Matic: June 25, 2008

Messed around with the pitch count estimator to get a wider range of performances, though the medians and averages won't change much as a result. I'm also adding in the predicted game score, because I'm rounding numbers off here, and sometimes the rounding makes a difference. For instance, Randy Johnson is predicted at 5.8 innings. Is that 5 2/3, or 6 IP? I round to the closest, but the extra out makes a difference in his prediction.

I've also changed the name of the Stud% and Bomb%, as they are misleading. They are really the odds that the pitcher will do significantly better or worse than I predicted. Illustrative is Halladay's line. His "stud%" would only be 21%, which might lead you to believe he only has a 1 in 5 chance of having a great game. But that's misleading because that 60 game score is a studly performance. His median performance is studly! What the 21% really means is that the system thinks there is a 21% chance he will be significantly better than that median prediction.

I've also added Boom Games and Bust Games, instead of just the good hitters' games. I've done this for hitters and pitchers, though I'm still refining the pitcher system. Hitter booms and busts are limited to two per team. Good hitters usually boom and bad hitters usually bust, so no point listing all of them.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Johnson  (ARI)  5.2  6   1   2   6   2  54  41%   25%
Wakefield(BOS)  5.1  6   1   2   4   3  46  10%   25%
Burres   (BAL)  5.2  6   1   3   5   2  52  35%   29%
Lilly    (CHC)  5.2  5   1   2   6   2  56  18%   11%
Harang   (CIN)  6.2  7   1   2   5   3  52  30%   34%
Halladay (TOR)  7.1  7   0   1   5   2  60  21%   13%
Santana  (LAA)  6.0  6   1   2   5   2  55  36%   28%
Redding  (WAS)  5.2  6   0   2   4   2  52  19%   13%
Perkins  (MIN)  6.1  8   1   1   4   3  49  27%   40%
Maddux   (SDP)  6.0  7   0   1   3   2  53  28%    9%
Kendrick (PHI)  5.2  6   0   1   2   2  51  37%   24%
Smith    (OAK)  5.2  6   1   3   4   3  47  14%   20%
Batista  (SEA)  5.2  6   0   3   3   3  46  32%   32%
Maine    (NYM)  6.1  6   0   2   5   2  56  23%   10%
Zito     (SFG)  5.0  6   0   3   4   2  48  32%   33%
Sowers   (CLE)  5.0  7   1   1   2   3  42  15%   19%
Lohse    (STL)  5.2  7   1   1   3   3  46  27%   33%
Galarraga(DET)  6.0  6   0   3   4   2  53  17%   16%

Pitcher Boom Games: R.Johnson, Halladay, Maine, Lilly, Maddux


Pitcher Bust Games: Sowers


Hitter Boom Games: Tracy, C.Young, Lowell, Scott, Soto, A.Ramirez, V.Guerrero, Kotchman, Kouzmanoff, A.Gonzalez, Burrell, Howard, Cust, Beltran, Wright, Rowand, B.Molina, Ankiel, Sheffield, Thames


Hitter Bust Games: Moss, Lugo, Cintron, A.Jones, E.Patterson, Hopper, Bako, Kendrick, E.Aybar, W.Harris, C.Gomez, B.Harris, E.Gonzalez, Bloomquist, Ichiro, Barton, Kennedy


Game Winners: San Diego, Arizona, Cubs, Toronto, Washington, Philadelphia, Mets, Cleveland (tossup), Detroit