Predict-a-Matic: June 11, 2008

Having made some refinements to my in-season game simulator, I'm going to test the results for the first time this year. The refinements really fall into two categories: First, a smoothing, taking into account the numbers this year AND last year. This is particularly important early in the season to mitigate small sample sizes. Second, after reading The Book, by Tango, Dolphin and Lichtmann, I realized I was putting too much stock in platoon splits. Now, to obtain the threshold PAs necessary to observe the splits, I use career splits instead of current year. Both of these changes could be considered "smoothing" of the data.

I'm only going to do 9 of the games, mostly because I'm pressed for time. I'm not just being selective. These happen to be the 9 games that have the most fantasy impact for my teams.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER 4+Runs 5+Runs
Webb    (ARI)   7.0  7   0   2   5   2  21%    12%
Pelfrey (NYM)   6.2  6   0   3   4   3  29%    17%

Vazquez (CHW)   6.2  6   1   1   7   2  26%    12%
Verlander (DET) 6.1  6   1   2   5   3  33%    20%

Billingsley(LAD)6.2  6   -   2   6   2  20%    11%
Wolf    (SDP)   6.1  6   0   1   5   2  14%     7%

Rasner  (NYY)   5.0  5   0   1   3   2  21%    11%
Duchscherer(OAK)6.1  6   0   2   4   2  27%    14%

Kazmir  (TBR)   6.1  6   0   2   6   2  22%    13%
Lackey  (LAA))  6.2  6   -   2   6   2  24%    14%

Lincecum (SFG)  6.1  5   0   3   8   2  18%    10%
Jimenez (COL)   5.2  5   0   2   5   2  20%    12%

Jurrjens (ATL)  5.1  6   0   2   4   2  24%    13%
Dempster (CHC)  7.0  6   0   4   5   3  31%    18%

Blackburn(MIN)  6.1  8   1   1   4   4  49%    32%
Byrd     (CLE)  6.0  7   1   1   3   3  32%    19%

Padilla (TEX)   5.2  7   0   2   4   3  37%    23%
Davies  (KCR)   5.0  6   1   3   3   3  32%    20%

Big Games:

Conor Jackson
Jim Thome
Teixeira
McCann
Morneau
Kubel
Sizemore
Garko
Peralta
Delucci (skeptical)
Hamilton
Bradley (skeptical)
Catalanotto
Guillen
Buck (skeptical)

Game Winners: Arizona, White Sox, San Diego, Oakland, Angels, Giants (but toss-up), Cubs, Cleveland, Rangers (but toss-up)