From 1956-2006, there had been only 103 games in which the starting pitcher earned a negative game score. By the time of my post in late July 2007, seven had already occurred in those 4 months of the season. Three names were added by the end of the season, which brought the number to 10 for the year.
We are approaching early July 2008, and before tonight's game, we had only two negative performances. One from Jason Simontacci (-2) and one from Jarrod Washburn (-1). Tonight we will add Bronson Arroyo, who turned in a -9 in one inning of work. Last year Jason Jennings produced a -11 in only 2/3 of an inning. Hurdle pulled him at 39 pitches. Arroyo this evening threw 52 pitches before Dusty decided to pull him.
It's interesting how many fewer negative scores we have had this year compared to last. Could the managers be learning? Maybe, but it is too soon to call.
I looked at 2006 and was surprised to see 10 negative game scores. That means in 2006 and 2007, 20 of the 115 negative game scores since 1956 occurred -- 17%, just in those two years. How about for the decade? Fifty negative game scores, or a whopping 44%. Here are the number of negative game scores by decade (60's through 00's, there were none from 1956-1959):
'00s 51, and it's only mid-way through 2008 '90s 46 '80s 8 '70s 8 '60s 1
Of the negative game scores, here is the average negative game score for the last four decades:
'00s -4.9 '90s -4.5 '80s -3.5 '70s -4.0
So not only are they occurring much more frequently, the pitchers are suffering more.
It's pretty interesting that as pitchers are less expected to throw a CG, thus shifting more responsibility to bullpens, they are also less likely to get the hook in an early blowout.
But there's one more tidbit that may absolve these managers. Out of those 115 negative game scores, only 19 involved pitchers throwing less than 60 pitches in the game. All but one of those 19 occurred since 1993. The other one was in 1988.
That indicates that prior to 1993, a larger number of pitchers were lifted when they approached their max pitch counts...they basically went as far as they could, to protect the bullpen.
But since 1993, it is more likely a pitcher will be pulled before the max pitch count is approached, which seems to be a recognition by managers that they need to get them out of there. Cincinnati's game was lost in the first inning. Dusty could have left Arroyo out for another 30 pitches, with no effect on the W-L record, but he pulled him.
Confusing: more negative game scores + worse game scores + lower pitch counts.
My initial conclusion is the pitchers are simply much worse. They are pitching horribly more often, and the horrible incidents are worse, and they are doing it without even going as deep into their max pitch count as was previously true.
1993 is no accident. It was an expansion year.
