Sunday, June 15, 2008

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 14, 2008

Pitching grades are pretty good. This is the first time I've used a "system" for the grades. Before I assigned grades based on how accurate I felt the predictions were. Now I use an objective method.

There is still a subjective element, however. If the pitcher gave a stud performance and his stud% was high, I give myself extra credit for predicting the possibility of a stud performance. Likewise if the pitcher bombed and his bomb% was high. In this case, I'd say the percentages have to be 28% or more to get the bonus. I'm not sure that's the "right" cutoff, but it isn't exactly scientific.

Conversely, if a pitcher gave a stud performance and his stud% was very low, I should be docked a grade for not realizing the stud possibility. Likewise for a pitcher who bombs when his bomb% was low. On the low side, I'd say the percentages have to be about 14% or lower.

The Big Games predictions were pretty bad -- not unexpected, since predicting four ABs out of an entire season's worth is pretty much impossible. The power numbers were pretty good. The batting average was horrible.

And the W-L predictor was also bad. Pure randomness could have gotten me to .500.

A C- for the whole day, I think.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Wakefield (BOS) 5.2 6 1 2 5 2 31% 32%
7.0 4 2 2 6 2 Grade: B+ (stud bonus)
Volquez (CIN) 6.0 5 0 3 8 2 24% 12%
7.0 7 0 1 9 2 Grade: B+
--------------------------------------------------
Marquis (CHC) 5.2 6 0 2 3 2 38% 31%
7.0 4 0 2 1 1 Grade: B (stud bonus)
Halladay (TOR) 7.1 7 0 1 5 2 17% 14%
5.0 7 1 1 5 2 Grade: B-
--------------------------------------------------
de laRosa(COL) 5.1 7 1 2 4 3 20% 46%
5.0 1 0 1 8 0 Grade: D+
Danks (CHW) 5.1 6 1 2 5 3 15% 18%
6.0 5 0 1 6 0 Grade: C+
--------------------------------------------------
Hendrickson(FLA)6.0 7 1 2 4 3 29% 33%
5.0 4 1 3 6 3 Grade: B
Garza (TBR) 5.1 6 0 2 5 2 15% 19%
7.0 3 0 1 3 1 Grade: C
--------------------------------------------------
Penny (LAD) 6.0 7 0 2 4 2 35% 28%
3.2 7 2 2 0 7 Grade: D (bomb bonus)
Bonine (DET) 6.0 7 0 1 2 2 20% 15%
(rookie debut) 5.1 9 1 0 2 6 Grade: C
--------------------------------------------------
Perkins (MIN) 6.2 8 1 3 6 4 13% 62%
6.0 8 1 1 6 3 Grade: A-
Suppan (MIL) 6.1 7 0 2 3 2 20% 15%
7.0 7 0 1 5 2 Grade: A
--------------------------------------------------
Mussina (NYY) 5.1 7 0 1 3 2 40% 24%
6.0 6 1 0 4 3 Grade: B+
Rodriquez(HOU) 5.2 6 1 2 5 2 19% 14%
5.0 6 1 3 1 5 Grade: C+ (bomb penalty)
--------------------------------------------------
Eaton (PHI) 5.1 6 1 3 3 3 33% 33%
6.2 9 1 1 2 3 Grade: B-
Lohse (STL) 5.2 6 1 2 4 2 15% 16%
8.0 4 1 2 3 2 Grade: C+
--------------------------------------------------
Gabbard (TEX) (ppd)
Martinez (NYM) (ppd)

Big Games: .226, 12R, 12RBI, 6HR

Game Winners: 4-4