Monday, October 13, 2008

AL and NL ROY

Last year I did these separately, but this year the choices seem so clear, I'm sticking them in one post. Last year's NL picks from me were: Braun, Tulowitzki, Gallardo, Lincecum and Loney. I did a detailed analysis of Braun and Tulo and chose Braun. It was a close call.

Last year's AL picks from me were: Dice-K, Pedroia, Bannister, Willits and Guthrie. (Wow, what happened to Willits?)

National League

Player       WS*   WARP**
Soto         24     4.3
Votto        20     5.3
Jurrjens     12     5.0
Kuroda       10     4.5

Very interesting that Soto comes in 4th among this group in WARP. Probably because of the defensive adjustment I make to the WARP score, which affects an important defensive player more than a first baseman or starting pitcher. WS sees it just the opposite.

I'll take them in the order listed above, with Soto nudging Votto. Soto was pretty consistent all year, and he's a catcher. Votto came on strong at the end, but was inconsistent earlier in the year.


American League

Player       WS*   WARP**
Longoria     20     6.4
Aviles       17     3.3
A. Ramirez   18     0.4
Chamberlain  10     4.3
Galarragga   14     5.9
Span         16     3.9
Masterson     8     3.9
Ellsbury     15     4.5
Ziegler      10     3.9

Well, BP doesn't like Ramirez much. Despite some good fantasy totals, he walked only 18 times in 500+ plate appearances, which pretty much makes him an out machine. BP also thinks his defense was bad. Could Kevin Kennedy have been wrong about him?

First place is easy, as expected. Longoria runs away with it. Galarraga, hidden on a bad Detroit team, comes in second, Ellsbury third and Denard Span is fourth. It will be interesting to see if BP is right about Ramirez. Ranked #2 in WS, but barely above replacement in WARP.