But first, some traditional stats used in the Cy Young evaluation:
Pitcher Wins ERA SO Webb 22 3.30 183 Lincecum 18 2.62 265 Sabathia 17 2.70 251 J.Santana 16 2.53 206 Dempster 17 2.96 187 Hamels 14 3.09 196 Haren 16 3.33 206 Billingsley 16 3.14 201 Oswalt 17 3.54 165 Cook 16 3.96 96 Volquez 17 3.21 206 Sheets 13 3.09 158 Peavy 10 2.85 166
Of course, raw stats don't take into account park factors, and wins don't take into account run support. Based on the above, though, you can eliminate pretty much everyone except Webb, Santana, Sabathia, Lincecum, Dempster and Hamels. All six are top performers in the three traditional categories.
Pitcher VORP WS WARP1 Lincecum 72.5 27 9.5 Sabathia 76.2 25 10.7 Webb 50.8 22 8.7 J.Santana 73.4 21 8.6 Dempster 57.5 18 7.5 Hamels 56.3 18 7.8 Haren 53.2 20 8.3 Billingsley 51.6 16 7.0 Oswalt 44.1 18 6.2 Cook 36.5 17 6.2 Volquez 44.3 17 6.9 Sheets 52.4 16 5.8 Peavy 51.5 15 7.7
Last year was easy, because Peavy led the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts, plus swept the categories above. A lot tougher this year.
Only Lincecum, Sabathia and Santana have the extraordinary VORP numbers. Lincecum played for a horrible team. Sabathia split leagues but was a huge playoff factor. Santana was also a huge playoff factor.
Those same three pitchers, plus Webb, have the best Win Shares, but Lincecum has a significant lead. The same four lead WARP1, but Sabathia is significantly ahead.
In my mind Webb is clearly fourth, because of the factors above, and because he faded down the stretch. Webb had been #2 last year and seemed like the shoo-in at the All-Star break this year.
I think Lincecum was better than Santana this year, and managed to win those games with a terrible Giants team. To me, that pushes Santana to #3.
Sabathia had as good a year as any pitcher. The question is whether a pitcher who splits leagues ought to win one league's Cy Young. That gives me some pause. If he's going to win it, it has to be in the NL because (i) Cliff Lee has got to win it in the AL and (2) Sabathia did all his good work in the NL.
Sabathia single-handedly got Milwaukee to the playoffs for the first time since 1982, and he pitched on 3 days rest down the stretch. It was the most notable performance of the year. I give the Cy Young to C.C. Sabathia, and place Lincecum at #2. Lincecum will win one someday.
