Here are the Win Shares and their WARP1 scores from Baseball Prospectus for this year's candidates.
Player WS* WARP** Guerrero 24 4.5 Teixeira 30 8.7 Huff 23 6.3 Roberts 21 5.0 Markakis 25 6.2 Pedroia 26 6.3 Youkilis 29 7.0 Bay 25 4.5 Quentin 24 6.2 Sizemore 28 5.4 Granderson 21 5.2 Mauer 31 6.9 Morneau 29 7.3 A-Rod 25 7.2 Damon 25 5.0 Hamilton 27 5.7 Bradley 21 6.8 Kinsler 26 5.4 Cliff Lee 25 10.3 Halladay 23 9.7 M.Rivera 17 10.2
*Source: The Hardball Times
**Source: Baseball Prospectus. I use FRAA, instead of FRAR, so the WARP1 number is converted. That hurts some players more than others. For instance, it takes 3.5 WARP away from Dustin Pedroia, since he is way better than replacement, but just a little above average.
The ones who stand out the most are pitchers, who are technically eligible, but from whom I shy away because of the Cy Young. Plus, these three pitchers didn't propel their teams to the playoffs, so it's easier to exclude them.
Most of the talk is about Pedroia and Youkilis, and to a lesser degree Mauer and Morneau. These latter two were talked about more before the playoffs started, and playoffs aren't supposed to matter, but that's the media for you. Josh Hamilton's gaudy RBI totals, and back story, will also get him a ton of votes.
And we've got a Manny parallel here, in Teixeira, except that Tex looks even better. Let's see how they do in the composite score, which I described in my NL Catcher's post, assuming the replacement WS for a player is 5.
Player Composite Teixeira 51.1 Cliff Lee 50.9 Halladay 47.1 Mauer 46.7 Morneau 45.9 Youkilis 45.0 M.Rivera 42.6 A-Rod 41.6 Pedroia 39.9 Sizemore 39.2 Hamilton 39.1 Markakis 38.6 Quentin 37.6 Kinsler 37.2 Huff 36.9 Bradley 36.4 Damon 35.0 Bay 33.5 Guerrero 32.5 Granderson 31.6 Roberts 31.0
Wow, where to start? First, Teixeira had a better year than any other player who finished in the AL. That's a dilemma. Then we've got two pitchers, and the Twins.
Frankly, I'm surprised how far down the list Pedroia is. Youkilis is more deserving from the same team. And I guess A-Rod wasn't as bad as I thought.
For those Hamilton supporters, he comes in #11 here. Why are his raw totals gaudy? Because two guys hitting in front of him are #14 and #16 on this list. That's quite an advantage. You also have to be impressed with #13 (Quentin) and #14 (Kinsler), who finished on this list despite missing more than a month at the end of the season.
So does it go to the guy who switched leagues (Tex), a pitcher (Lee) or the only non-pitcher at the top of the list who spent all year in the AL?
I want to go with Teixeira. Except, I bumped Manny down a spot in the NL rankings. Of course, that was easy to do because the choices were third or fourth. Here, Tex is first. But what if Tex started in the AL and went to the NL, and vice versa for Manny, each putting up the same numbers? Tex would be right about where Manny is on the NL list, and Manny would be about where Tex is on this list.
My award goes to Mauer, with Tex second, Youkilis third and Morneau fourth. Why Youkilis ahead of Morneau? It's not his batting stance, I can tell you that! I gave him a little extra for versatility, switching between 3b and 1b to account for Lowell's injuries.
