Monday, October 13, 2008

AL Cy Young

First, some traditional stats used in the Cy Young evaluation:


Pitcher       Wins   ERA    SO
C.Lee          22    2.54   170
Halladay       20    2.78   206
Lester         16    3.21   152
Matsuzaka      18    2.90   154
Danks          12    3.32   159
E. Santana     16    3.49   214
Saunders       17    3.41   103
Duchscherer    10    2.54    95
Baker          11    3.45   141
Greinke        13    3.47   183
Meche          14    3.98   183
Shields        14    3.56   160
Mussina        20    3.37   150

Although the top is very strong, it drops off veryquickly. You are probably wondering why Duchscherer made the list with only 10 wins and a half a season. See below. Really, however, this is between Lee and Halladay.


Pitcher       VORP    WS     WARP1
C.Lee         75.0    25      10.3
Halladay      71.5    23       9.7
Lester        58.2    19       7.8
Matsuzaka     50.6    17       7.7
Danks         52.8    17       8.4
E. Santana    50.3    19       7.3
Saunders      44.0    19       6.8
Duchscherer   46.1    14       6.4
Baker         44.4    13       5.4
Greinke       43.8    17       7.3
Meche         38.2    15       6.9
Shields       43.7    16       5.6
Mussina       43.1    18       8.5
Rivera        34.0    17      10.2 
K-Rod         22.3    12       7.5
Soria         30.1    15       7.6

These are ordered by VORP. Lee is the clear winner, with Halladay second.

Duchscherer is on the list because he is #8 in VORP. With half a season!

Danks' counting stats were not very impressive, but he fares well in all three of these uber-stats. Mussina gets a nostalgia point and gets #3, with Danks at #4. I don't entirely trust the uber-stats measurement of relievers, at least not on the same basis as the starters. Rivera comes in fifth.

Let this also be a lesson in counting stats for relievers -- particularly saves. K-Rod's "real" season was no big deal. In his own league Rivera, Soria and Nathan were better across the board.