Last year I considered Greg Maddux, Aaron Cook, Ben Sheets, Brandon Webb, Doug Davis and Derek Lowe. Maddux got the gold.
Cook appears again on WS, as to Harang, Wainwright, Arroyo, Looper, Penny, Sheets and Webb. BP would support Cook, Maddux, Arroyo, Webb, Oswalt and Dempster. In fact, BP puts Webb and Maddux significantly ahead. Since Maddux won it, Cook finished second last year, and Webb was on the list, I'll eliminate everyone but those three.
Guess I've got to go with the real evidence from BP and give it to Maddux or Webb, but I'm tired of Maddux winning it. So, Brandon Webb.
Iron Glove to Oliver Perez.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
AL Gold Gloves; Pitcher
Last year I said this: "I really, really don't care whether a pitcher gets a gold glove. They don't play enough defense to register on the Win Shares scale, except in hundreths of a decimal point. Only a few register Fielding Runs Above Average."
This year, no starter in the AL had a positive WS fielding total, at least at the tenths of a decimal level. Burnett, Galarraga, Laffey, Pettite and Sonnanstine fared the best. I gave it to Pettitte last year. WARP would support Pettitte or Sonnanstine as choices.
Pettitte has a ton of hardware. Since I don't care about this much, I give it to Andy Sonnanstine.
That's a makeup call for the Iron Glove, which I'm giving to Scott Kazmir.
This year, no starter in the AL had a positive WS fielding total, at least at the tenths of a decimal level. Burnett, Galarraga, Laffey, Pettite and Sonnanstine fared the best. I gave it to Pettitte last year. WARP would support Pettitte or Sonnanstine as choices.
Pettitte has a ton of hardware. Since I don't care about this much, I give it to Andy Sonnanstine.
That's a makeup call for the Iron Glove, which I'm giving to Scott Kazmir.
NL Gold Gloves: Outfield
Here are the NL Gold Glove candidates in the outfield. I'll use Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
Unlike the real voting process, I like to give the three gold gloves to three different outfield positions. Last year the winners were Eric Byrnes in left, Jacque Jones in center (edging Beltran) and Jeff Francoeur in right.
Guess we can get used to seeing Beltran, Cameron, Rowand and Francouer on this list every year, though Francouer is losing playing time. To me the most interesting people on this list are Ryan Braun, who was almost the Iron Glove at 3b last year, and Pat Burrell, who was the Iron Glove in left field last year. BP does not agree Burrell ought to be on here, and if you watch him play, you see why.
Also, it is extremely interesting that Skip Schumaker and Ryan Ludwick, flanking the reputationally-stellar Rick Ankiel, made the list and Ankiel did not. That's a good outfield!
Even though the averages are different depending on what position you play, I'll use 2.6 as the average WS for an outfielder. Since we are ranking them by position it shouldn't matter that left fielders get hurt by that average. Fortunately we don't have the "Ellsbury" problem with this set of fielders, who mostly stayed in the same positions all year.
The only real contenders we have in left field are Braun, Schumaker and Soriano and it's really no context. Ryan Braun gets the gold in left field. I'm pretty sure Soriano wins this if he plays a full season, but he didn't.
In right field it is Hunter Pence vs. Randy Winn, but Pence wins on both Win Shares and FRAA. Always an easy call when that happens. Hunter Pence gets the gold in right.
For the second year in a row Chris Young fares well in WS, but last year BP didn't like him. This year, it does. But it doesn't like Beltran, who I cheated out of the award last year because of his late season collapse. Maybe I knew what I was doing after all. Chris Young wins it in a landslide, with the exciting Shane Victorino second and Beltran third.
So the hardware goes to Braun, Young and Pence.
Iron Gloves last year went to Pat Burrell in left, Nate McLouth in center and Josh Willingham in right.
Willingham played mostly left this year, and was hurt a lot, but still turned in a bad performance. Under FWAA he was as bad as Burrell in about 50 fewer games. But Jason Bay was worse, and that's only counting his games in Pittsburgh. It's a good thing he got traded to Boston. He was bad in LF there too, but at least he didn't play enough games to show up on the radar. Bay gets the Iron in left. Winning the Iron from Burrell, Willingham, Adam Dunn and Carlos Lee is an accomplishment.
I was surprised how poorly Andre Ethier played in right field, but not nearly as surprised as I was about Brad Hawpe. BP didn't like Hawpe last year, but this year, he looks like the worst outfielder at any position, and Win Shares does not disagree. An arm is not enough. Hawpe gets the Iron Glove in right field, edging the aging Brian Giles, who needs to DH somewhere.
McLouth may have had a good year at the plate, but he managed to get even worse in the outfield. Last year he was the worst of a group of pretty good fielders. This year he was just bad. Ankiel almost got the iron here, despite that arm.
Unlike the real voting process, I like to give the three gold gloves to three different outfield positions. Last year the winners were Eric Byrnes in left, Jacque Jones in center (edging Beltran) and Jeff Francoeur in right.
Outfield FWS FWAA Pos C.Young 6.9 1.0 cf Beltran 6.5 0.0 cf Rowand 6.3 0.0 cf Victorino 6.1 0.5 cf Kemp 5.8 0.1 cf Cameron 5.0 0.1 cf Pence 4.8 1.7 rf Winn 4.5 1.4 rf Hart 4.1 -0.6 rf Werth 4.1 1.0 rf Braun 4.1 1.3 lf Fukudome 3.8 0.2 rf Ludwick 3.7 1.3 rf Francoeur 3.6 0.8 rf Schumaker 3.6 0.0 lf Burrell 3.3 -1.2 lf Soriano 3.1 1.1 lf
Guess we can get used to seeing Beltran, Cameron, Rowand and Francouer on this list every year, though Francouer is losing playing time. To me the most interesting people on this list are Ryan Braun, who was almost the Iron Glove at 3b last year, and Pat Burrell, who was the Iron Glove in left field last year. BP does not agree Burrell ought to be on here, and if you watch him play, you see why.
Also, it is extremely interesting that Skip Schumaker and Ryan Ludwick, flanking the reputationally-stellar Rick Ankiel, made the list and Ankiel did not. That's a good outfield!
Even though the averages are different depending on what position you play, I'll use 2.6 as the average WS for an outfielder. Since we are ranking them by position it shouldn't matter that left fielders get hurt by that average. Fortunately we don't have the "Ellsbury" problem with this set of fielders, who mostly stayed in the same positions all year.
The only real contenders we have in left field are Braun, Schumaker and Soriano and it's really no context. Ryan Braun gets the gold in left field. I'm pretty sure Soriano wins this if he plays a full season, but he didn't.
In right field it is Hunter Pence vs. Randy Winn, but Pence wins on both Win Shares and FRAA. Always an easy call when that happens. Hunter Pence gets the gold in right.
For the second year in a row Chris Young fares well in WS, but last year BP didn't like him. This year, it does. But it doesn't like Beltran, who I cheated out of the award last year because of his late season collapse. Maybe I knew what I was doing after all. Chris Young wins it in a landslide, with the exciting Shane Victorino second and Beltran third.
So the hardware goes to Braun, Young and Pence.
Iron Gloves last year went to Pat Burrell in left, Nate McLouth in center and Josh Willingham in right.
Willingham played mostly left this year, and was hurt a lot, but still turned in a bad performance. Under FWAA he was as bad as Burrell in about 50 fewer games. But Jason Bay was worse, and that's only counting his games in Pittsburgh. It's a good thing he got traded to Boston. He was bad in LF there too, but at least he didn't play enough games to show up on the radar. Bay gets the Iron in left. Winning the Iron from Burrell, Willingham, Adam Dunn and Carlos Lee is an accomplishment.
I was surprised how poorly Andre Ethier played in right field, but not nearly as surprised as I was about Brad Hawpe. BP didn't like Hawpe last year, but this year, he looks like the worst outfielder at any position, and Win Shares does not disagree. An arm is not enough. Hawpe gets the Iron Glove in right field, edging the aging Brian Giles, who needs to DH somewhere.
McLouth may have had a good year at the plate, but he managed to get even worse in the outfield. Last year he was the worst of a group of pretty good fielders. This year he was just bad. Ankiel almost got the iron here, despite that arm.
AL Gold Gloves: Outfield
Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates in the outfield. I'll use Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
Unlike the real voting process, I like to give the three gold gloves to three different outfield positions. Last year I had eclectic winners: Reggie Willits in left, Coco Crisp in center and Mark Teahen in right. Ahem. I don't expect a repeat.
Ellsbury is a tough one, because he is a top defender, but he splits time between the three positions and plays all of them well. I've prorated his numbers at each position to determine how he would fare if he played there all the time, so my evaluation of him will be done on that basis. David Dejesus, Alexis Rios and Jay Payton have similar problems, but not so pronounced. (Dejesus ought to be in left, and Rios ought to be in center, by the way).
Even though the averages are different depending on what position you play, I'll use 2.6 as the average WS for an outfielder. Since we are ranking them by position it shouldn't matter that left fielders get hurt by that average.
The only real contenders we have in left field are Dejesus, Ellsbury and Payton, all of whom split time among all three positions to one degree or another. Payton and Dejesus are the only two with their primary positions in left, but Ellsbury's left field numbers are better than Payton's. Nonetheless, Dejesus comes out ahead and gets the left field Gold Glove.
Right field appears to be Rios' province according to the chart above, but much of those positives came in center field, not right. Franklin Gutierrez has some good "pure" right field numbers. However, all of the right field numbers pale in comparison to Jacoby Ellsbury's right field numbers. Ellsbury is, quite simply, a gold glover at every outfield position, since he's definitely a center field candidate too. However, because there are other worthy center field candidates, Ellsbury gets my Gold Glove in right field. He'll move to center with Crisp gone, and they'll get even better in the outfield. Hard to believe, because Crisp is no slouch.
In center field the true contest is between Torii Hunter, he of the multiple gold, Alexis Rios and Jacoby Ellsbury. I've already given Ellsbury the award, so we'll eliminate him, but for the record, he has the best projected center field numbers. The chart would indicate Hunter as the choice, but Rios' numbers on the chart are suppressed by a pedestrian performance in right field. Pro rating his numbers for center, he comes out ahead of Hunter. The pro ration is a useful device, but it is not infallible. When it butts up against a known quantity like Hunter, I've got to go with the known quantity.
So the hardware goes to Dejesus, Hunter and Ellsbury. I like that look a lot better than last year's list.
Iron Gloves last year went to the two guys flanking Suzuki (Ibanez and Guillen) and Jerry Owens in center field. One wonders whether Suzuki's prowess hurt those two guys. Suzuki was below average this year, and Ibanez and Guillen rated as average this year. Hmmm.
Magglio Ordonez is a hands down winner of the Iron Glove in right field. Raul Ibanez is nothing if not consistent in left, and would get his second consecutive Iron Glove out there, if it weren't for Delmon Young, who stunk it up. Center is always hard, because there are no terrible defenders in center, except relative to the other center fielders in the league. Josh Hamilton is clearly the worst center fielder in the league, though, so it was a much easier call this year.
Unlike the real voting process, I like to give the three gold gloves to three different outfield positions. Last year I had eclectic winners: Reggie Willits in left, Coco Crisp in center and Mark Teahen in right. Ahem. I don't expect a repeat.
Outfield FWS FWAA Pos Upton 6.7 0.9 cf Hunter 6.7 1.7 cf Ellsbury 6.5 2.0 cf (see below) Rios 6.4 1.2 rf (see below) Gross 5.3 0.0 rf C.Gomez 4.5 1.0 cf Crisp 4.1 0.0 cf Sizemore 3.8 -1.3 cf DeJesus 3.7 0.4 lf (see below) Wells 3.7 -0.3 cf Dye 3.6 0.6 rf Teahen 3.3 0.3 rf Granderson 3.0 0.3 cf Gutierrez 2.9 1.7 rf Payton 2.6 1.9 lf G.Anderson 2.4 0.3 lf Francisco 1.9 0.1 lf
Ellsbury is a tough one, because he is a top defender, but he splits time between the three positions and plays all of them well. I've prorated his numbers at each position to determine how he would fare if he played there all the time, so my evaluation of him will be done on that basis. David Dejesus, Alexis Rios and Jay Payton have similar problems, but not so pronounced. (Dejesus ought to be in left, and Rios ought to be in center, by the way).
Even though the averages are different depending on what position you play, I'll use 2.6 as the average WS for an outfielder. Since we are ranking them by position it shouldn't matter that left fielders get hurt by that average.
The only real contenders we have in left field are Dejesus, Ellsbury and Payton, all of whom split time among all three positions to one degree or another. Payton and Dejesus are the only two with their primary positions in left, but Ellsbury's left field numbers are better than Payton's. Nonetheless, Dejesus comes out ahead and gets the left field Gold Glove.
Right field appears to be Rios' province according to the chart above, but much of those positives came in center field, not right. Franklin Gutierrez has some good "pure" right field numbers. However, all of the right field numbers pale in comparison to Jacoby Ellsbury's right field numbers. Ellsbury is, quite simply, a gold glover at every outfield position, since he's definitely a center field candidate too. However, because there are other worthy center field candidates, Ellsbury gets my Gold Glove in right field. He'll move to center with Crisp gone, and they'll get even better in the outfield. Hard to believe, because Crisp is no slouch.
In center field the true contest is between Torii Hunter, he of the multiple gold, Alexis Rios and Jacoby Ellsbury. I've already given Ellsbury the award, so we'll eliminate him, but for the record, he has the best projected center field numbers. The chart would indicate Hunter as the choice, but Rios' numbers on the chart are suppressed by a pedestrian performance in right field. Pro rating his numbers for center, he comes out ahead of Hunter. The pro ration is a useful device, but it is not infallible. When it butts up against a known quantity like Hunter, I've got to go with the known quantity.
So the hardware goes to Dejesus, Hunter and Ellsbury. I like that look a lot better than last year's list.
Iron Gloves last year went to the two guys flanking Suzuki (Ibanez and Guillen) and Jerry Owens in center field. One wonders whether Suzuki's prowess hurt those two guys. Suzuki was below average this year, and Ibanez and Guillen rated as average this year. Hmmm.
Magglio Ordonez is a hands down winner of the Iron Glove in right field. Raul Ibanez is nothing if not consistent in left, and would get his second consecutive Iron Glove out there, if it weren't for Delmon Young, who stunk it up. Center is always hard, because there are no terrible defenders in center, except relative to the other center fielders in the league. Josh Hamilton is clearly the worst center fielder in the league, though, so it was a much easier call this year.
NL Gold Gloves: Shortstop
Here are the NL Gold Glove candidates at shortstop. I'll use Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
Last year's winner, Troy Tulowitzki, missed a huge chunk of the year, as did the second place finisher Rafael Furcal. The only solid returner on this list from last year's list is J.J. Hardy. All three young guns are here (Reyes, Rollins and Ramirez). Should we be talking about Hardy in the same breath?
Using the composite method with 4.8 as the average WS for a shortstop, Miguel Tejada wins this in a giant comeback reminiscent of his former glory. Hardy is a close second. No third place award, as there's nothing special about the rest of them on defense.
So will Tulowitzki blow everyone away again next year. Not sure. He had a fairly pedestrian WS number (projected to a full season) and was only average in FWAA. I don't think 2007 was a fluke. I think Troy lost his focus in 2008. If he gets it back, I expect him to win it again.
Eckstein got the Iron last year, but he switched leagues to avoid the same fate. The NL doesn't have any horrible shortstops...no one on the magnitude of Yuniesky Betancourt. Choices are Stephen Drew or Yunel Escobar. They are literally tied, even if I also factor in last year. I'll give it to Drew, because at least Escobar had the courtesy to play 72 fewer games at the position over the last two years.
Shortstop FWS FWAA Hardy 6.6 0.7 Tejada 6.5 1.3 Rollins 5.6 0.3 H.Ramirez 5.3 -0.3 Guzman 5.1 0.3 Theriot 5.0 -0.3 Reyes 4.9 -0.4
Last year's winner, Troy Tulowitzki, missed a huge chunk of the year, as did the second place finisher Rafael Furcal. The only solid returner on this list from last year's list is J.J. Hardy. All three young guns are here (Reyes, Rollins and Ramirez). Should we be talking about Hardy in the same breath?
Using the composite method with 4.8 as the average WS for a shortstop, Miguel Tejada wins this in a giant comeback reminiscent of his former glory. Hardy is a close second. No third place award, as there's nothing special about the rest of them on defense.
So will Tulowitzki blow everyone away again next year. Not sure. He had a fairly pedestrian WS number (projected to a full season) and was only average in FWAA. I don't think 2007 was a fluke. I think Troy lost his focus in 2008. If he gets it back, I expect him to win it again.
Eckstein got the Iron last year, but he switched leagues to avoid the same fate. The NL doesn't have any horrible shortstops...no one on the magnitude of Yuniesky Betancourt. Choices are Stephen Drew or Yunel Escobar. They are literally tied, even if I also factor in last year. I'll give it to Drew, because at least Escobar had the courtesy to play 72 fewer games at the position over the last two years.
AL Gold Gloves: Shortstop
Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates at shortstop. I'll use Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
Last year's winner, Juan Uribe, moved to third base. Orlando Cabrera finished second, so he glides into the top spot. Cabrera's replacement in LA, Erick Aybar, also made the list, as did rookie Mike Aviles.
And how about Michael Young, whose defense has been consistently derided over the years? Those are days of the past. He was terrible from 2003-2005...possibly the worst in the league. But he had a great 2006, and average 2007, and another really good 2008. Got to give him props for improving.
Using the composite method with 4.8 as the average WS for a shortstop, Michael Young wins this. Holy crap. Cabrera finishes second, perhaps masking for the White Sox how much he fell off at the plate. Aybar comes in third.
Last year the Iron Glove went to Brendan Harris because he was a disaster for Tampa Bay (problem solved with Jason Bartlett). This year he split time between positions, and generally played a solid shortstop. Not so for Yuniesky Betancourt, who was awful by all measures. Far worse than the next worst shortstop, Edgar Renteria. (Aside, I thought Renteria was old, but he's only 33 next season. Guess than happens when you are playing full time at age 20).
Shortstop FWS FWAA Cabrera 8.0 1.2 Young 7.3 2.0 Peralta 6.7 0.5 E.Aybar 6.1 1.0 Aviles 5.5 0.3 Crosby 5.3 -0.7 Bartlett 5.3 -0.6
Last year's winner, Juan Uribe, moved to third base. Orlando Cabrera finished second, so he glides into the top spot. Cabrera's replacement in LA, Erick Aybar, also made the list, as did rookie Mike Aviles.
And how about Michael Young, whose defense has been consistently derided over the years? Those are days of the past. He was terrible from 2003-2005...possibly the worst in the league. But he had a great 2006, and average 2007, and another really good 2008. Got to give him props for improving.
Using the composite method with 4.8 as the average WS for a shortstop, Michael Young wins this. Holy crap. Cabrera finishes second, perhaps masking for the White Sox how much he fell off at the plate. Aybar comes in third.
Last year the Iron Glove went to Brendan Harris because he was a disaster for Tampa Bay (problem solved with Jason Bartlett). This year he split time between positions, and generally played a solid shortstop. Not so for Yuniesky Betancourt, who was awful by all measures. Far worse than the next worst shortstop, Edgar Renteria. (Aside, I thought Renteria was old, but he's only 33 next season. Guess than happens when you are playing full time at age 20).
NL Gold Gloves: Third Base
Here are the NL Gold Glove candidates at third base. I'll use Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
Yep, that's right, Troy Glaus is at the top of the WS list, and Blake Dewitt, who the Dodgers are teaching to play second base, is second on the list of WS. Hard to know how much of that is 3b and how much is 2b. BP thinks he was below average at 2b and quite good at 3b. In fact, I didn't find anyone at 3b in the NL with more FWAA at 3b! Based on outs, I'll give him 80% of his WS total for 3b.
The returners from last year's list are Ramirez, Wright, Feliz, and Zimmerman, the latter of which got my gold glove last year. Kouzmanoff is a returner, of sorts. He got my Iron Glove last year! Another Jason Kendall perhaps?
This is a mishmash if BP is right about two stalwarts, Ramirez and Wright. Ramirez finished a close second for my gold glove last year.
Using the composite method with 2.0 as the average WS for a third baseman, Blake Dewitt gets the gold glove. Unbelievable. Zimmerman finishes second, and Kouzmanoff third. Expect Zimmerman to be back next year, since he only played 100 or so games this year.
As I mentioned, last years Iron Glove went to Kouzmanoff, who clearly worked out the kinks. This year it is an easy call with Edwin Encarnacion, who actually fared worse than Kouzmanoff's numbers last year. FWAA shows that he cost the Reds more than 2 wins all by himself, compared to what a merely average third baseman would have done. But Blake Dewitt at third for the Reds and they win two more games (gaining 3 wins at third and losing 1 win at the plate).
Third base FWS FWAA Glaus 4.3 0.3 Dewitt 3.4 1.2 [see below re: Win Shares) Kouzmanoff 4.2 0.8 A.Ramirez 3.6 -0.3 Wright 3.3 -0.4 Atkins 3.1 -0.5 Feliz 3.1 0.2 Zimmerman 3.1 1.0
Yep, that's right, Troy Glaus is at the top of the WS list, and Blake Dewitt, who the Dodgers are teaching to play second base, is second on the list of WS. Hard to know how much of that is 3b and how much is 2b. BP thinks he was below average at 2b and quite good at 3b. In fact, I didn't find anyone at 3b in the NL with more FWAA at 3b! Based on outs, I'll give him 80% of his WS total for 3b.
The returners from last year's list are Ramirez, Wright, Feliz, and Zimmerman, the latter of which got my gold glove last year. Kouzmanoff is a returner, of sorts. He got my Iron Glove last year! Another Jason Kendall perhaps?
This is a mishmash if BP is right about two stalwarts, Ramirez and Wright. Ramirez finished a close second for my gold glove last year.
Using the composite method with 2.0 as the average WS for a third baseman, Blake Dewitt gets the gold glove. Unbelievable. Zimmerman finishes second, and Kouzmanoff third. Expect Zimmerman to be back next year, since he only played 100 or so games this year.
As I mentioned, last years Iron Glove went to Kouzmanoff, who clearly worked out the kinks. This year it is an easy call with Edwin Encarnacion, who actually fared worse than Kouzmanoff's numbers last year. FWAA shows that he cost the Reds more than 2 wins all by himself, compared to what a merely average third baseman would have done. But Blake Dewitt at third for the Reds and they win two more games (gaining 3 wins at third and losing 1 win at the plate).
AL Gold Gloves: Third Base
Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates at third base. I'll start by saying Evan Longoria is a bad ass at third base. I don't know if he'll be on this list, but if not, he will be one day.
Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
Two younguns, Longoria and Gordon make the list. Also, Juan Uribe jumps in there after his first full season at 3b (and probably his last). Uribe won my gold glove at shorstop last year! Otherwise, it's a collection of the frequently-injured and ARod.
Our disparity in this case is clearly Gordon (though Figgy and Beltre are there too).
But no matter. Longoria clearly wins this. Using the composite method with 2.0 as the average WS for a third baseman, Mike Lowell actually finishes second, with ARod third. Lowell is underappreciated. He finished second with a bad back and hip. I used to watch him with the Marlins. He stands on third so cooly, but his reactions are instantaneous.
Last year the Iron Glove went to a troubled Eric Chavez, surprisingly. Win Shares would probably give it to Carlos Guillen, who transitioned from the toughest position on the defensive spectrum (SS) to the easiest (1b) and then back to the middle of the spectrum at 3b. But FWAA thinks he was better than average over there.
Though it is tempting to give it to the combo of Brian Buscher and Mike Lamb for the Twins, they were outdone by Ramon Vazquez filling in for Hank Blaylock (again). Vazquez gets the Iron Glove, but in truth, he's not really that bad.
Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
Third base FWS FWAA Longoria 4.8 1.9 ARod 4.6 0.4 Uribe 4.3 0.2 Lowell 4.3 1.1 Figgins 3.2 -1.0 Beltre 3.1 -0.8 Gordon 3.1 -2.0 Hannahan 3.1 0.7 Mora 3.0 0.3 Rolen 2.9 0.0
Two younguns, Longoria and Gordon make the list. Also, Juan Uribe jumps in there after his first full season at 3b (and probably his last). Uribe won my gold glove at shorstop last year! Otherwise, it's a collection of the frequently-injured and ARod.
Our disparity in this case is clearly Gordon (though Figgy and Beltre are there too).
But no matter. Longoria clearly wins this. Using the composite method with 2.0 as the average WS for a third baseman, Mike Lowell actually finishes second, with ARod third. Lowell is underappreciated. He finished second with a bad back and hip. I used to watch him with the Marlins. He stands on third so cooly, but his reactions are instantaneous.
Last year the Iron Glove went to a troubled Eric Chavez, surprisingly. Win Shares would probably give it to Carlos Guillen, who transitioned from the toughest position on the defensive spectrum (SS) to the easiest (1b) and then back to the middle of the spectrum at 3b. But FWAA thinks he was better than average over there.
Though it is tempting to give it to the combo of Brian Buscher and Mike Lamb for the Twins, they were outdone by Ramon Vazquez filling in for Hank Blaylock (again). Vazquez gets the Iron Glove, but in truth, he's not really that bad.
NL Gold Gloves: Second Base
Here are the NL Gold Glove candidates at second base. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
The names are pretty much the same as last year, including Phillips at the top...except Kaz Matsui and Marcus Giles lost their jobs. Some may be surprised by Uggla since his All-Star Game appearance made him look like a little leaguer. But he was in the top 5 last year too, and he's a hard worker.
I only saw two major league games live this year. In one, Kelly Johnson made a horrible error that caused the Braves to lose to the Phillies and was generally regarded as the nail in the coffin for the Braves. And that was in July. But it couldn't have been all Johnson's fault. Besides, Johnson has been on my gold glove list before.
And let's acknowledge the defensive talent of Orlando Hudson. The guy only played 107 games. I saw him make a play, behind shortstop(!), that told me all I need to know about his fielding.
DeRosa made the WS list, but that's a composite from all over the field. He played 95 games at 2b, 22 at 3b, 27 in LF, 38 in RF and one each at short and first. BP sees about half of his defensive value coming at 2b. That takes him off our list, but BP agrees he was a positive fielding contributor. What a valuable guy to have on the team.
I've got Iguchi on the list because of the disparity in system rankings. WS has him far below average, and FWAA has him as the best in the NL.
As a whole, this is generally an unremarkable group. Using the composite score method (see the NL Catcher's gold glove post), based on an average second baseman achieving 4.3 fielding win shares, Phillips gets the gold glove again, with Hudson second and Kelly Johnson third. [Technically Iguchi finishes second in the composite method because of the high FWAA score, but I can't give him second when the two systems disagree so greatly.]
Phillips is one hell of a talent, because that bat is something to talk about too. He's lost behind the Utley-love.
Last year the Iron Glove went to Craig Biggio and his stand in Chris Burke. Since we don't have them to kick around anymore, who was the worst in the NL at second? I always like to start by looking at Jeff Kent. In year's past he has foiled me by not being as bad as I think. But not anymore. Welcome Jeff, to the Iron Glove club. We can only be thankful he had to sit out 20 games he otherwise would have played.
Second base FWS FWAA Phillips 7.1 1.4 Utley 6.6 0.4 Hudson 5.2 1.2 K.Johnson 4.3 1.2 Uggla 4.7 0.8 Iguchi 2.4 2.0
The names are pretty much the same as last year, including Phillips at the top...except Kaz Matsui and Marcus Giles lost their jobs. Some may be surprised by Uggla since his All-Star Game appearance made him look like a little leaguer. But he was in the top 5 last year too, and he's a hard worker.
I only saw two major league games live this year. In one, Kelly Johnson made a horrible error that caused the Braves to lose to the Phillies and was generally regarded as the nail in the coffin for the Braves. And that was in July. But it couldn't have been all Johnson's fault. Besides, Johnson has been on my gold glove list before.
And let's acknowledge the defensive talent of Orlando Hudson. The guy only played 107 games. I saw him make a play, behind shortstop(!), that told me all I need to know about his fielding.
DeRosa made the WS list, but that's a composite from all over the field. He played 95 games at 2b, 22 at 3b, 27 in LF, 38 in RF and one each at short and first. BP sees about half of his defensive value coming at 2b. That takes him off our list, but BP agrees he was a positive fielding contributor. What a valuable guy to have on the team.
I've got Iguchi on the list because of the disparity in system rankings. WS has him far below average, and FWAA has him as the best in the NL.
As a whole, this is generally an unremarkable group. Using the composite score method (see the NL Catcher's gold glove post), based on an average second baseman achieving 4.3 fielding win shares, Phillips gets the gold glove again, with Hudson second and Kelly Johnson third. [Technically Iguchi finishes second in the composite method because of the high FWAA score, but I can't give him second when the two systems disagree so greatly.]
Phillips is one hell of a talent, because that bat is something to talk about too. He's lost behind the Utley-love.
Last year the Iron Glove went to Craig Biggio and his stand in Chris Burke. Since we don't have them to kick around anymore, who was the worst in the NL at second? I always like to start by looking at Jeff Kent. In year's past he has foiled me by not being as bad as I think. But not anymore. Welcome Jeff, to the Iron Glove club. We can only be thankful he had to sit out 20 games he otherwise would have played.
AL Gold Gloves: Second Base
After a hiatus, here are the AL Gold Glove candidates at second base. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
Win Shares is an interesting list. I watched Iwamura all year long and would have described him as average, and his FWAA bears that out. Cano had a generally disappointing year at the plate, but excelled in the field. He was my gold glvoe last year.
And there's Alexei Ramirez again, who Win Shares liked in the ROY battle, but WARP did not. Here's part of the reason. Win Shares has him 6th best in fielding, and WARP thinks he was the second worst fielding second baseman in the league.
Conspicuous in his absence is Placido Polanco. Neither WS nor WARP was impressed with his defense. In fact, he's the only second baseman I could find ranked lower in fielding by FWAA than Ramirez.
Using the composite score method (see the NL Catcher's gold glove post), based on an average second baseman achieving 4.3 fielding win shares, Cano gets the gold glove again, with Pedroia second and Lopez third.
Last year the Iron Glove went to Danny Richar, who lost his job to Alexei Ramirez. Because of the Win Shares love, Ramirez won't replace him in the Iron Glove standings too. This year, it goes to the formerly talented Placido Polanco, who showed quite a decline in last year's standings. He's losing it, and at age 33, he's quickly going to run himself out of the league.
Second base FWS FWAA Pedroia 7.6 0.4 Iwamura 5.9 0.3 Cano 5.8 1.2 A.Cabrera 5.6 0.7 J. Lopez 5.4 1.2 A.Ramirez 5.3 -1.7 Kendrick 5.3 0.9 Ellis 4.9 0.2
Win Shares is an interesting list. I watched Iwamura all year long and would have described him as average, and his FWAA bears that out. Cano had a generally disappointing year at the plate, but excelled in the field. He was my gold glvoe last year.
And there's Alexei Ramirez again, who Win Shares liked in the ROY battle, but WARP did not. Here's part of the reason. Win Shares has him 6th best in fielding, and WARP thinks he was the second worst fielding second baseman in the league.
Conspicuous in his absence is Placido Polanco. Neither WS nor WARP was impressed with his defense. In fact, he's the only second baseman I could find ranked lower in fielding by FWAA than Ramirez.
Using the composite score method (see the NL Catcher's gold glove post), based on an average second baseman achieving 4.3 fielding win shares, Cano gets the gold glove again, with Pedroia second and Lopez third.
Last year the Iron Glove went to Danny Richar, who lost his job to Alexei Ramirez. Because of the Win Shares love, Ramirez won't replace him in the Iron Glove standings too. This year, it goes to the formerly talented Placido Polanco, who showed quite a decline in last year's standings. He's losing it, and at age 33, he's quickly going to run himself out of the league.
Monday, October 20, 2008
AL Gold Gloves: Catcher
Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates at catcher. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
I'll assume for this post that an average fielding catcher would earn about 2.5 fielding win shares to get the composite score.
Wildly disparate results here. Suzuki has a huge lead in WS, followed by I-Rod and Mauer. The I-Rod rating is hard to believe, at his age. BP has Navarro at the top, followed by Molina. it sees Mauer and Suzuki as equal, and I-Rod as merely average.
Seems to me it has to come down to Molina and Navarro. Molina appears to have been better. I hate to give a GG to someone in a part time role, but if Molina saves more runs than Navarro, while playing half as often, shouldn't he be the guy?
Neither guy was a factor last year. Johjima beat Mauer. Johjima and Mauer don't deserve it this year, though I'd bet on Mauer getting the actual award.
How to decide? Last year Navarro was below average. Jose Molina last year was a positive defensive contributor, despite having almost NO playing time. He must be incredible. He's got the lineage. He gets my GG, followed by Navarro and Johjima.
Greg Zaun got the Iron last year. Since he can't hit, that's pretty bad. But he was average defensively this year. Not so Mike Napoli, who gets the Iron Glove. Ironic that the Angels are managed by one of the best defensive catchers of the 1980s. Scioscia ain't gonna care if Napoli keeps cranking 20 HR every 220 at bats. Get him 600 ABs and he'll lead the league in round trippers. Defense, shmeefense.
Catcher FWS FWAA Suzuki 11.0 0.7 I-Rod 9.4 0.0 Mauer 9.2 0.7 J.Molina 9.1 1.8 Varitek 7.9 0.8 Navarro 7.3 2.2 Johjima 5.7 1.9
I'll assume for this post that an average fielding catcher would earn about 2.5 fielding win shares to get the composite score.
Wildly disparate results here. Suzuki has a huge lead in WS, followed by I-Rod and Mauer. The I-Rod rating is hard to believe, at his age. BP has Navarro at the top, followed by Molina. it sees Mauer and Suzuki as equal, and I-Rod as merely average.
Seems to me it has to come down to Molina and Navarro. Molina appears to have been better. I hate to give a GG to someone in a part time role, but if Molina saves more runs than Navarro, while playing half as often, shouldn't he be the guy?
Neither guy was a factor last year. Johjima beat Mauer. Johjima and Mauer don't deserve it this year, though I'd bet on Mauer getting the actual award.
How to decide? Last year Navarro was below average. Jose Molina last year was a positive defensive contributor, despite having almost NO playing time. He must be incredible. He's got the lineage. He gets my GG, followed by Navarro and Johjima.
Greg Zaun got the Iron last year. Since he can't hit, that's pretty bad. But he was average defensively this year. Not so Mike Napoli, who gets the Iron Glove. Ironic that the Angels are managed by one of the best defensive catchers of the 1980s. Scioscia ain't gonna care if Napoli keeps cranking 20 HR every 220 at bats. Get him 600 ABs and he'll lead the league in round trippers. Defense, shmeefense.
AL Gold Gloves: First Base
Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates at first base. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
Last year I gave it to Youkilis, with Carlos Pena second in a nudge over Casey Kotchman. Kotchman got traded to the NL, but for my GG, he lands on the AL list.
I openly expressed distrust of WS at 1b, because Overbay and Matt Stairs were tied in WS, so I didn't trust the Overbay ranking. Like Delgado in the NL, here he is again. Every one of the guys on the list above was a contender last year too. I like that consistency.
Using the composite score method (see the NL Catcher's gold glove post), based on an average first baseman achieving 0.7 fielding win shares, Overbay easily wins, with Kotchman second. If we'd get rid of the stupid AL/NL distinction for stats purposes, they'd both win and Derrek Lee would have one less trophy.
Expect Youkilis or Pena to win the real one, since batting is always a factor. Pena would be the better choice. Youkilis played about 79% of his defensive time at 1b, so I had to prorate his WS.
Surprisingly, the Iron Glove last year almost went to Teixeira, who came close to a GG from me this year. But I gave the iron to Ryan Garko last year.
Garko improved a lot this year. Jason Giambi did not, and I thought he'd get the metal. But Miguel Cabrera outdistanced him in badness (and diet), so Miggy gets the Iron Glove.
First base FWS FWAA Overbay 3.8 1.9 Kotchman 3.0 1.2 Youkilis 2.8 0.3 (see note below on WS) Pena 2.4 1.6 Millar 2.2 1.1
Last year I gave it to Youkilis, with Carlos Pena second in a nudge over Casey Kotchman. Kotchman got traded to the NL, but for my GG, he lands on the AL list.
I openly expressed distrust of WS at 1b, because Overbay and Matt Stairs were tied in WS, so I didn't trust the Overbay ranking. Like Delgado in the NL, here he is again. Every one of the guys on the list above was a contender last year too. I like that consistency.
Using the composite score method (see the NL Catcher's gold glove post), based on an average first baseman achieving 0.7 fielding win shares, Overbay easily wins, with Kotchman second. If we'd get rid of the stupid AL/NL distinction for stats purposes, they'd both win and Derrek Lee would have one less trophy.
Expect Youkilis or Pena to win the real one, since batting is always a factor. Pena would be the better choice. Youkilis played about 79% of his defensive time at 1b, so I had to prorate his WS.
Surprisingly, the Iron Glove last year almost went to Teixeira, who came close to a GG from me this year. But I gave the iron to Ryan Garko last year.
Garko improved a lot this year. Jason Giambi did not, and I thought he'd get the metal. But Miguel Cabrera outdistanced him in badness (and diet), so Miggy gets the Iron Glove.
NL Gold Gloves: First Base
Here are the NL Gold Glove candidates at first base. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
I gave the Gold Glove to Pujols last year, with Helton finishing second. Derrek Lee was also a contender.
Derrek Lee is in his usual spot again, and we've otherwise got pretty much the same crew as last year, with Berkman and Loney added, and Helton off-list. Last year I was shocked that Delgado was a contender, but here he is again. Must not be a fluke.
For Gold Gloves, I'll place guys who split leagues in the league where they spent the most time. That means Teixeira's in the NL. He tops the WS list, but not FWAA.
Using the composite score method (see the NL Catcher's gold glove post), based on an average first baseman achieving 0.7 fielding win shares, Lee gets the hardware. Lance Berkman, he of the surprising athletic ability, finishes second.
Expect Lee to win it. No one is going to award a split league guy like Teixeira.
Last year's Iron Glove went to Dmitri Young. He didn't play enough this year. While my money would have been on the similarly sized Fielder, or Mike Jacobs, the Iron Glove goes to Adam LaRoche, who was pretty clearly the worst by these measures.
First base FWS FWAA Teixeira 2.8 1.0 D.Lee 2.7 1.7 Berkman 2.6 1.6 Delgado 2.4 0.9 A.Gonzalez 2.1 0.0 Pujols 2.1 1.4 Loney 2.0 0.0
I gave the Gold Glove to Pujols last year, with Helton finishing second. Derrek Lee was also a contender.
Derrek Lee is in his usual spot again, and we've otherwise got pretty much the same crew as last year, with Berkman and Loney added, and Helton off-list. Last year I was shocked that Delgado was a contender, but here he is again. Must not be a fluke.
For Gold Gloves, I'll place guys who split leagues in the league where they spent the most time. That means Teixeira's in the NL. He tops the WS list, but not FWAA.
Using the composite score method (see the NL Catcher's gold glove post), based on an average first baseman achieving 0.7 fielding win shares, Lee gets the hardware. Lance Berkman, he of the surprising athletic ability, finishes second.
Expect Lee to win it. No one is going to award a split league guy like Teixeira.
Last year's Iron Glove went to Dmitri Young. He didn't play enough this year. While my money would have been on the similarly sized Fielder, or Mike Jacobs, the Iron Glove goes to Adam LaRoche, who was pretty clearly the worst by these measures.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
NL Gold Gloves: Catcher
Here are the NL Gold Glove candidates at catcher. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
The most striking thing about this list is Jason Kendall at the top, and by a wide margin. Last year, he got my Iron Glove because he was terrible behind the plate, at least by these measures.
I'll assume for this post that an average fielding catcher would earn about 2.5 fielding win shares to get the composite score. But there's really no contest.
Last year, Yadier Molina edged out Chris Snyder and got my Gold Glove. This year the Gold Glove goes to last year's Iron Glove: Jason Kendall. Wow. Something isn't right about that, which isn't surprising since catcher defense is arguably unmeasurable. Benji comes in second.
Last year, Michael Barrett came in a close second for the Iron Glove. Fortunately for Barrett, he didn't play enough to qualify. (Yes, he would have won it again at his current pace). His teammate Josh Bard came close to 200 PAs, though. Maybe he should get it. But I give the Iron Glove to Washington's Jesus Flores. Even with 100 more PAs he wasn't as bad as Bard, but maybe Bard's sample size is too low? I'm being generous. At least Flores isn't a complete liability at the plate, like the San Diego contenders.
And maybe, just maybe, Flores will get the gold next year, just like Mr. Kendall.
Catcher FWS FWAA Kendall 11.9 1.7 B.Molina 9.2 0.9 Soto 9.0 0.6 Snyder 7.2 1.0 Y.Molina 6.6 1.1 Schneider 6.0 0.9 Iannetta 5.5 0.1 Ruiz 5.3 0.2 Martin 5.3 0.4
The most striking thing about this list is Jason Kendall at the top, and by a wide margin. Last year, he got my Iron Glove because he was terrible behind the plate, at least by these measures.
I'll assume for this post that an average fielding catcher would earn about 2.5 fielding win shares to get the composite score. But there's really no contest.
Last year, Yadier Molina edged out Chris Snyder and got my Gold Glove. This year the Gold Glove goes to last year's Iron Glove: Jason Kendall. Wow. Something isn't right about that, which isn't surprising since catcher defense is arguably unmeasurable. Benji comes in second.
Last year, Michael Barrett came in a close second for the Iron Glove. Fortunately for Barrett, he didn't play enough to qualify. (Yes, he would have won it again at his current pace). His teammate Josh Bard came close to 200 PAs, though. Maybe he should get it. But I give the Iron Glove to Washington's Jesus Flores. Even with 100 more PAs he wasn't as bad as Bard, but maybe Bard's sample size is too low? I'm being generous. At least Flores isn't a complete liability at the plate, like the San Diego contenders.
And maybe, just maybe, Flores will get the gold next year, just like Mr. Kendall.
Monday, October 13, 2008
AL and NL ROY
Last year I did these separately, but this year the choices seem so clear, I'm sticking them in one post. Last year's NL picks from me were: Braun, Tulowitzki, Gallardo, Lincecum and Loney. I did a detailed analysis of Braun and Tulo and chose Braun. It was a close call.
Last year's AL picks from me were: Dice-K, Pedroia, Bannister, Willits and Guthrie. (Wow, what happened to Willits?)
National League
Very interesting that Soto comes in 4th among this group in WARP. Probably because of the defensive adjustment I make to the WARP score, which affects an important defensive player more than a first baseman or starting pitcher. WS sees it just the opposite.
I'll take them in the order listed above, with Soto nudging Votto. Soto was pretty consistent all year, and he's a catcher. Votto came on strong at the end, but was inconsistent earlier in the year.
American League
Well, BP doesn't like Ramirez much. Despite some good fantasy totals, he walked only 18 times in 500+ plate appearances, which pretty much makes him an out machine. BP also thinks his defense was bad. Could Kevin Kennedy have been wrong about him?
First place is easy, as expected. Longoria runs away with it. Galarraga, hidden on a bad Detroit team, comes in second, Ellsbury third and Denard Span is fourth. It will be interesting to see if BP is right about Ramirez. Ranked #2 in WS, but barely above replacement in WARP.
Last year's AL picks from me were: Dice-K, Pedroia, Bannister, Willits and Guthrie. (Wow, what happened to Willits?)
National League
Player WS* WARP** Soto 24 4.3 Votto 20 5.3 Jurrjens 12 5.0 Kuroda 10 4.5
Very interesting that Soto comes in 4th among this group in WARP. Probably because of the defensive adjustment I make to the WARP score, which affects an important defensive player more than a first baseman or starting pitcher. WS sees it just the opposite.
I'll take them in the order listed above, with Soto nudging Votto. Soto was pretty consistent all year, and he's a catcher. Votto came on strong at the end, but was inconsistent earlier in the year.
American League
Player WS* WARP** Longoria 20 6.4 Aviles 17 3.3 A. Ramirez 18 0.4 Chamberlain 10 4.3 Galarragga 14 5.9 Span 16 3.9 Masterson 8 3.9 Ellsbury 15 4.5 Ziegler 10 3.9
Well, BP doesn't like Ramirez much. Despite some good fantasy totals, he walked only 18 times in 500+ plate appearances, which pretty much makes him an out machine. BP also thinks his defense was bad. Could Kevin Kennedy have been wrong about him?
First place is easy, as expected. Longoria runs away with it. Galarraga, hidden on a bad Detroit team, comes in second, Ellsbury third and Denard Span is fourth. It will be interesting to see if BP is right about Ramirez. Ranked #2 in WS, but barely above replacement in WARP.
AL Cy Young
First, some traditional stats used in the Cy Young evaluation:
Although the top is very strong, it drops off veryquickly. You are probably wondering why Duchscherer made the list with only 10 wins and a half a season. See below. Really, however, this is between Lee and Halladay.
These are ordered by VORP. Lee is the clear winner, with Halladay second.
Duchscherer is on the list because he is #8 in VORP. With half a season!
Danks' counting stats were not very impressive, but he fares well in all three of these uber-stats. Mussina gets a nostalgia point and gets #3, with Danks at #4. I don't entirely trust the uber-stats measurement of relievers, at least not on the same basis as the starters. Rivera comes in fifth.
Let this also be a lesson in counting stats for relievers -- particularly saves. K-Rod's "real" season was no big deal. In his own league Rivera, Soria and Nathan were better across the board.
Pitcher Wins ERA SO C.Lee 22 2.54 170 Halladay 20 2.78 206 Lester 16 3.21 152 Matsuzaka 18 2.90 154 Danks 12 3.32 159 E. Santana 16 3.49 214 Saunders 17 3.41 103 Duchscherer 10 2.54 95 Baker 11 3.45 141 Greinke 13 3.47 183 Meche 14 3.98 183 Shields 14 3.56 160 Mussina 20 3.37 150
Although the top is very strong, it drops off veryquickly. You are probably wondering why Duchscherer made the list with only 10 wins and a half a season. See below. Really, however, this is between Lee and Halladay.
Pitcher VORP WS WARP1 C.Lee 75.0 25 10.3 Halladay 71.5 23 9.7 Lester 58.2 19 7.8 Matsuzaka 50.6 17 7.7 Danks 52.8 17 8.4 E. Santana 50.3 19 7.3 Saunders 44.0 19 6.8 Duchscherer 46.1 14 6.4 Baker 44.4 13 5.4 Greinke 43.8 17 7.3 Meche 38.2 15 6.9 Shields 43.7 16 5.6 Mussina 43.1 18 8.5 Rivera 34.0 17 10.2 K-Rod 22.3 12 7.5 Soria 30.1 15 7.6
These are ordered by VORP. Lee is the clear winner, with Halladay second.
Duchscherer is on the list because he is #8 in VORP. With half a season!
Danks' counting stats were not very impressive, but he fares well in all three of these uber-stats. Mussina gets a nostalgia point and gets #3, with Danks at #4. I don't entirely trust the uber-stats measurement of relievers, at least not on the same basis as the starters. Rivera comes in fifth.
Let this also be a lesson in counting stats for relievers -- particularly saves. K-Rod's "real" season was no big deal. In his own league Rivera, Soria and Nathan were better across the board.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
AL MVP
Last year A-Rod was an easy choice, and I had Magglio and Carlos Pena second and third. A-Rod had a "down year" -- at least in A-Rod terms -- and there are a lot of contenders challenging him for the award.
Here are the Win Shares and their WARP1 scores from Baseball Prospectus for this year's candidates.
*Source: The Hardball Times
**Source: Baseball Prospectus. I use FRAA, instead of FRAR, so the WARP1 number is converted. That hurts some players more than others. For instance, it takes 3.5 WARP away from Dustin Pedroia, since he is way better than replacement, but just a little above average.
The ones who stand out the most are pitchers, who are technically eligible, but from whom I shy away because of the Cy Young. Plus, these three pitchers didn't propel their teams to the playoffs, so it's easier to exclude them.
Most of the talk is about Pedroia and Youkilis, and to a lesser degree Mauer and Morneau. These latter two were talked about more before the playoffs started, and playoffs aren't supposed to matter, but that's the media for you. Josh Hamilton's gaudy RBI totals, and back story, will also get him a ton of votes.
And we've got a Manny parallel here, in Teixeira, except that Tex looks even better. Let's see how they do in the composite score, which I described in my NL Catcher's post, assuming the replacement WS for a player is 5.
Wow, where to start? First, Teixeira had a better year than any other player who finished in the AL. That's a dilemma. Then we've got two pitchers, and the Twins.
Frankly, I'm surprised how far down the list Pedroia is. Youkilis is more deserving from the same team. And I guess A-Rod wasn't as bad as I thought.
For those Hamilton supporters, he comes in #11 here. Why are his raw totals gaudy? Because two guys hitting in front of him are #14 and #16 on this list. That's quite an advantage. You also have to be impressed with #13 (Quentin) and #14 (Kinsler), who finished on this list despite missing more than a month at the end of the season.
So does it go to the guy who switched leagues (Tex), a pitcher (Lee) or the only non-pitcher at the top of the list who spent all year in the AL?
I want to go with Teixeira. Except, I bumped Manny down a spot in the NL rankings. Of course, that was easy to do because the choices were third or fourth. Here, Tex is first. But what if Tex started in the AL and went to the NL, and vice versa for Manny, each putting up the same numbers? Tex would be right about where Manny is on the NL list, and Manny would be about where Tex is on this list.
My award goes to Mauer, with Tex second, Youkilis third and Morneau fourth. Why Youkilis ahead of Morneau? It's not his batting stance, I can tell you that! I gave him a little extra for versatility, switching between 3b and 1b to account for Lowell's injuries.
Here are the Win Shares and their WARP1 scores from Baseball Prospectus for this year's candidates.
Player WS* WARP** Guerrero 24 4.5 Teixeira 30 8.7 Huff 23 6.3 Roberts 21 5.0 Markakis 25 6.2 Pedroia 26 6.3 Youkilis 29 7.0 Bay 25 4.5 Quentin 24 6.2 Sizemore 28 5.4 Granderson 21 5.2 Mauer 31 6.9 Morneau 29 7.3 A-Rod 25 7.2 Damon 25 5.0 Hamilton 27 5.7 Bradley 21 6.8 Kinsler 26 5.4 Cliff Lee 25 10.3 Halladay 23 9.7 M.Rivera 17 10.2
*Source: The Hardball Times
**Source: Baseball Prospectus. I use FRAA, instead of FRAR, so the WARP1 number is converted. That hurts some players more than others. For instance, it takes 3.5 WARP away from Dustin Pedroia, since he is way better than replacement, but just a little above average.
The ones who stand out the most are pitchers, who are technically eligible, but from whom I shy away because of the Cy Young. Plus, these three pitchers didn't propel their teams to the playoffs, so it's easier to exclude them.
Most of the talk is about Pedroia and Youkilis, and to a lesser degree Mauer and Morneau. These latter two were talked about more before the playoffs started, and playoffs aren't supposed to matter, but that's the media for you. Josh Hamilton's gaudy RBI totals, and back story, will also get him a ton of votes.
And we've got a Manny parallel here, in Teixeira, except that Tex looks even better. Let's see how they do in the composite score, which I described in my NL Catcher's post, assuming the replacement WS for a player is 5.
Player Composite Teixeira 51.1 Cliff Lee 50.9 Halladay 47.1 Mauer 46.7 Morneau 45.9 Youkilis 45.0 M.Rivera 42.6 A-Rod 41.6 Pedroia 39.9 Sizemore 39.2 Hamilton 39.1 Markakis 38.6 Quentin 37.6 Kinsler 37.2 Huff 36.9 Bradley 36.4 Damon 35.0 Bay 33.5 Guerrero 32.5 Granderson 31.6 Roberts 31.0
Wow, where to start? First, Teixeira had a better year than any other player who finished in the AL. That's a dilemma. Then we've got two pitchers, and the Twins.
Frankly, I'm surprised how far down the list Pedroia is. Youkilis is more deserving from the same team. And I guess A-Rod wasn't as bad as I thought.
For those Hamilton supporters, he comes in #11 here. Why are his raw totals gaudy? Because two guys hitting in front of him are #14 and #16 on this list. That's quite an advantage. You also have to be impressed with #13 (Quentin) and #14 (Kinsler), who finished on this list despite missing more than a month at the end of the season.
So does it go to the guy who switched leagues (Tex), a pitcher (Lee) or the only non-pitcher at the top of the list who spent all year in the AL?
I want to go with Teixeira. Except, I bumped Manny down a spot in the NL rankings. Of course, that was easy to do because the choices were third or fourth. Here, Tex is first. But what if Tex started in the AL and went to the NL, and vice versa for Manny, each putting up the same numbers? Tex would be right about where Manny is on the NL list, and Manny would be about where Tex is on this list.
My award goes to Mauer, with Tex second, Youkilis third and Morneau fourth. Why Youkilis ahead of Morneau? It's not his batting stance, I can tell you that! I gave him a little extra for versatility, switching between 3b and 1b to account for Lowell's injuries.
Thursday, October 09, 2008
NL Cy Young
I'll measure the NL Cy Young candidates by VORP and WARP (both from BP) and Win Shares. The latter two take into account hitting ability, so that could be important for a pitcher like Zambrano.
But first, some traditional stats used in the Cy Young evaluation:
Of course, raw stats don't take into account park factors, and wins don't take into account run support. Based on the above, though, you can eliminate pretty much everyone except Webb, Santana, Sabathia, Lincecum, Dempster and Hamels. All six are top performers in the three traditional categories.
Last year was easy, because Peavy led the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts, plus swept the categories above. A lot tougher this year.
Only Lincecum, Sabathia and Santana have the extraordinary VORP numbers. Lincecum played for a horrible team. Sabathia split leagues but was a huge playoff factor. Santana was also a huge playoff factor.
Those same three pitchers, plus Webb, have the best Win Shares, but Lincecum has a significant lead. The same four lead WARP1, but Sabathia is significantly ahead.
In my mind Webb is clearly fourth, because of the factors above, and because he faded down the stretch. Webb had been #2 last year and seemed like the shoo-in at the All-Star break this year.
I think Lincecum was better than Santana this year, and managed to win those games with a terrible Giants team. To me, that pushes Santana to #3.
Sabathia had as good a year as any pitcher. The question is whether a pitcher who splits leagues ought to win one league's Cy Young. That gives me some pause. If he's going to win it, it has to be in the NL because (i) Cliff Lee has got to win it in the AL and (2) Sabathia did all his good work in the NL.
Sabathia single-handedly got Milwaukee to the playoffs for the first time since 1982, and he pitched on 3 days rest down the stretch. It was the most notable performance of the year. I give the Cy Young to C.C. Sabathia, and place Lincecum at #2. Lincecum will win one someday.
But first, some traditional stats used in the Cy Young evaluation:
Pitcher Wins ERA SO Webb 22 3.30 183 Lincecum 18 2.62 265 Sabathia 17 2.70 251 J.Santana 16 2.53 206 Dempster 17 2.96 187 Hamels 14 3.09 196 Haren 16 3.33 206 Billingsley 16 3.14 201 Oswalt 17 3.54 165 Cook 16 3.96 96 Volquez 17 3.21 206 Sheets 13 3.09 158 Peavy 10 2.85 166
Of course, raw stats don't take into account park factors, and wins don't take into account run support. Based on the above, though, you can eliminate pretty much everyone except Webb, Santana, Sabathia, Lincecum, Dempster and Hamels. All six are top performers in the three traditional categories.
Pitcher VORP WS WARP1 Lincecum 72.5 27 9.5 Sabathia 76.2 25 10.7 Webb 50.8 22 8.7 J.Santana 73.4 21 8.6 Dempster 57.5 18 7.5 Hamels 56.3 18 7.8 Haren 53.2 20 8.3 Billingsley 51.6 16 7.0 Oswalt 44.1 18 6.2 Cook 36.5 17 6.2 Volquez 44.3 17 6.9 Sheets 52.4 16 5.8 Peavy 51.5 15 7.7
Last year was easy, because Peavy led the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts, plus swept the categories above. A lot tougher this year.
Only Lincecum, Sabathia and Santana have the extraordinary VORP numbers. Lincecum played for a horrible team. Sabathia split leagues but was a huge playoff factor. Santana was also a huge playoff factor.
Those same three pitchers, plus Webb, have the best Win Shares, but Lincecum has a significant lead. The same four lead WARP1, but Sabathia is significantly ahead.
In my mind Webb is clearly fourth, because of the factors above, and because he faded down the stretch. Webb had been #2 last year and seemed like the shoo-in at the All-Star break this year.
I think Lincecum was better than Santana this year, and managed to win those games with a terrible Giants team. To me, that pushes Santana to #3.
Sabathia had as good a year as any pitcher. The question is whether a pitcher who splits leagues ought to win one league's Cy Young. That gives me some pause. If he's going to win it, it has to be in the NL because (i) Cliff Lee has got to win it in the AL and (2) Sabathia did all his good work in the NL.
Sabathia single-handedly got Milwaukee to the playoffs for the first time since 1982, and he pitched on 3 days rest down the stretch. It was the most notable performance of the year. I give the Cy Young to C.C. Sabathia, and place Lincecum at #2. Lincecum will win one someday.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
NL MVP
Last year David Wright edged Albert Pujols as my NL MVP, but I correctly predicted that Rollins would win it. I don't think either of those things is going to happen this year, although there is a lot of talk about Ryan Howard winning it this year.
Let's look at their Win Shares and their WARP1 scores from Baseball Prospectus, along with a few other candidates.
*Source: The Hardball Times
**Source: Baseball Prospectus. I use FRAA, instead of FRAR, so the WARP1 number is converted. That hurts some players more than others. For instance, it takes 2.2 WARP away from Hanley Ramirez, since he is better than replacement, but below average.
Pujols runs away with it. His 11.8 WARP1 number (with my fielding adjustment) is a big big number. The best of Pujols career.
I think he's going to win it, but I think the Howard and Fielder bandwagons are strong. The fact is, of those three guys, only one guy did it consistently all year.
Howard didn't heat up until September. Had he played to his capabilities, the Phillies would have run away with the East instead of clinching just before the season ended. Also, check out some of the other numbers on the Phillies. Jayson Werth and Jimmy Rollins were extremely valuable down the stretch too.
Last year Rollins won it and I thought he was fifth. If Howard wins it, it is much more of a travesty. He doesn't even belong in the discussion. Let's put this in perspective: Ryan Howard was about half as good as Ryan Ludwick.
I think it is totally appropriate to include Manny in the discussion, even though more than 1/2 of his season was in the AL. The AL/NL distinction means very little anymore. Manny is almost single-handedly responsible for the Dodgers making the playoffs, and more than half of his numbers above came in the NL.
Here's a table with a composite score, which I described in my NL Catcher's post, assuming the replacement WS for a player is 5.
Assuming pitchers aren't eligible (b/c they never win and they have their own award), Pujols gets it easily, with Berkman second. I'll give third to Hanley, since Manny split leagues, with Manny 4th and the surprising Ryan Ludwick 5th. I'm ignoring the Mets before Ludwick, since they collapsed at the end. Again.
Let's look at their Win Shares and their WARP1 scores from Baseball Prospectus, along with a few other candidates.
Player WS* WARP** Pujols 35 11.8 Ludwick 26 8.3 H.Ramirez 32 7.3 Uggla 25 5.7 C.Jones 24 8.4 Berkman 38 9.5 Wright 29 7.5 Reyes 29 5.5 Beltran 33 6.5 Utley 30 7.0 Howard 25 3.4 Rollins 24 4.1 Holliday 23 7.1 M.Ramirez 34 8.6 Ethier 25 4.5 A.Gonzalez 26 6.6 McLouth 25 3.9 Fielder 23 4.3 Braun 25 6.7 D.Lee 18 5.7 A.Ramirez 25 4.7 DeRosa 23 5.6 J.Santana 21 8.6 Lincecum 27 9.5 Dempster 18 7.5 Hamels 18 7.8 Webb 22 8.7 Haren 20 8.3 Sabathia 25 10.7
*Source: The Hardball Times
**Source: Baseball Prospectus. I use FRAA, instead of FRAR, so the WARP1 number is converted. That hurts some players more than others. For instance, it takes 2.2 WARP away from Hanley Ramirez, since he is better than replacement, but below average.
Pujols runs away with it. His 11.8 WARP1 number (with my fielding adjustment) is a big big number. The best of Pujols career.
I think he's going to win it, but I think the Howard and Fielder bandwagons are strong. The fact is, of those three guys, only one guy did it consistently all year.
Howard didn't heat up until September. Had he played to his capabilities, the Phillies would have run away with the East instead of clinching just before the season ended. Also, check out some of the other numbers on the Phillies. Jayson Werth and Jimmy Rollins were extremely valuable down the stretch too.
Last year Rollins won it and I thought he was fifth. If Howard wins it, it is much more of a travesty. He doesn't even belong in the discussion. Let's put this in perspective: Ryan Howard was about half as good as Ryan Ludwick.
I think it is totally appropriate to include Manny in the discussion, even though more than 1/2 of his season was in the AL. The AL/NL distinction means very little anymore. Manny is almost single-handedly responsible for the Dodgers making the playoffs, and more than half of his numbers above came in the NL.
Here's a table with a composite score, which I described in my NL Catcher's post, assuming the replacement WS for a player is 5.
Player Composite Pujols 65.4 Berkman 61.4 M.Ramirez 54.8 Sabathia 52.1 Lincecum 50.5 H.Ramirez 48.9 Beltran 46.5 Wright 46.5 Utley 46.0 Ludwick 45.9 C.Jones 44.2 Webb 43.1 J.Santana 41.8 A.Gonzalez 40.8 Reyes 40.5 Braun 40.1 Haren 40.2 Holliday 39.3 Uggla 37.1 Hamels 36.4 Dempster 35.5 DeRosa 34.8 A.Ramirez 34.1 Ethier 33.5 McLouth 31.7 Rollins 31.3 Fielder 30.9 Howard 30.2 D.Lee 30.1
Assuming pitchers aren't eligible (b/c they never win and they have their own award), Pujols gets it easily, with Berkman second. I'll give third to Hanley, since Manny split leagues, with Manny 4th and the surprising Ryan Ludwick 5th. I'm ignoring the Mets before Ludwick, since they collapsed at the end. Again.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Sabathia and Pitcher Abuse
Another rant about Fox.
Some of the pre-game discussion was about the Brewers using C.C. Sabathia on three days rest. The commentators, including the wooden Ken Rosenthal, suggested this was perhaps inappropriate, considering Sabathia will be a free agent.
What???? Sabathia is the pitching horse on a team that is desperately trying to salvage a playoff run, and whose #2 starter, Ben Sheets, is made out of rice paper. Pitching a guy on three days rest is not abuse. In fact, for the majority of baseball history, three days was normal rest.
The Brewers might have a duty to Sabathia not to destroy him physically, the same way a mining company should not send workers into an airless mine without oxygen, but pitching on three days rest does not qualify. Importantly, and contrary to the commentary, the Brewers do not have a duty to the open market to preserve Sabathia as a great free agent.
Nor do they have a duty to Sabathia in terms of making sure he gets maximum money in the free agent market. He plays for the Brewers. They are paying him. They are in a playoff hunt. Absent truly destructive behavior that would qualify as abuse of any employee, the Brewers ought to pitch him as much as they can to make the playoffs.
Some of the pre-game discussion was about the Brewers using C.C. Sabathia on three days rest. The commentators, including the wooden Ken Rosenthal, suggested this was perhaps inappropriate, considering Sabathia will be a free agent.
What???? Sabathia is the pitching horse on a team that is desperately trying to salvage a playoff run, and whose #2 starter, Ben Sheets, is made out of rice paper. Pitching a guy on three days rest is not abuse. In fact, for the majority of baseball history, three days was normal rest.
The Brewers might have a duty to Sabathia not to destroy him physically, the same way a mining company should not send workers into an airless mine without oxygen, but pitching on three days rest does not qualify. Importantly, and contrary to the commentary, the Brewers do not have a duty to the open market to preserve Sabathia as a great free agent.
Nor do they have a duty to Sabathia in terms of making sure he gets maximum money in the free agent market. He plays for the Brewers. They are paying him. They are in a playoff hunt. Absent truly destructive behavior that would qualify as abuse of any employee, the Brewers ought to pitch him as much as they can to make the playoffs.
AL Rookie of the Year
On the Fox pre-game, Kevin Kennedy said Alexei Ramirez ought to get the AL Rookie of the Year over Evan Longoria because "he plays the infield and has played all year."
Oh dear, that is soooooo bad. Why do I keep getting surprised?
First, Longoria plays the infield. Last I checked third base is as much in the infield as second base.
Second, is it Longoria's fault that he missed 31 games with a bad wrist? It's too bad, and if that means he didn't contribute as much, fine. But if his performance exceeds that of Ramirez, why should the injury alone be a strike against Longoria?
Third -- and this is important -- Longoria has 466 plate appearances. Ramirez, who Kennedy credits for playing "all year" has 470 plate appearances! Longoria missed 31 games with an injury and only has 4 fewer plate appearances!
So Kennedy's rationale: infield and playing time, are essentially equal between the two. His comment is just plain uninformed.
Finally, let's look at performance, which ought to be the true arbiter of the award. Here are the BA/OBP/SLG for the two players:
297/320/483 - Ramirez
281/352/545 - Longoria
A 32 point OBP advantage and 62 point SLG advantage far outweigh Ramirez' 16 batting points advantage. It's the difference between a good 803 OPS for Ramirez and an 897 OPS for Longoria. Using Tango's quick and dirty OPS Wins formula, that's about 6.1 wins for Longoria and 4.3 wins for Ramirez. Based solely on batting.
Let's see what Baseball Prospectus says about their hitting, using Value Above Replacement Player, which relates their batting performances relative to a replacement player at their position:
21.7 - Ramirez
36.3 - Longoria
Wins are equivalent to approximately 10 runs, so BP confirms that the hitting different is around 1.5 wins. (Unlike the OPS wins, this BP measure is wins above replacement, which explains why the absolute numbers are so much lower than the OPS wins).
How about defense? BP says Ramirez has allowed 16 more runs than the average second baseman. Longoria has saved 15 runs above average for his position. (I'm a little surprised Longoria's number is so low...Longoria is one of the best I've seen at third). Anyway, that 31 run swing is a difference of about 3 wins.
Longoria missed 31 games, but has put up better rate numbers, and better cumulative statistics, than Ramirez who Kennedy credits with playing all year. A guy who misses 31 games but contributes about 4.5 wins more than another player, ought to be ahead in the Rookie of the Year race. The missed games are irrelevant, except to make the point about how much further ahead Longoria would be if he had actually been healthy!
Let's hope no one important was listening to Kennedy.
Oh dear, that is soooooo bad. Why do I keep getting surprised?
First, Longoria plays the infield. Last I checked third base is as much in the infield as second base.
Second, is it Longoria's fault that he missed 31 games with a bad wrist? It's too bad, and if that means he didn't contribute as much, fine. But if his performance exceeds that of Ramirez, why should the injury alone be a strike against Longoria?
Third -- and this is important -- Longoria has 466 plate appearances. Ramirez, who Kennedy credits for playing "all year" has 470 plate appearances! Longoria missed 31 games with an injury and only has 4 fewer plate appearances!
So Kennedy's rationale: infield and playing time, are essentially equal between the two. His comment is just plain uninformed.
Finally, let's look at performance, which ought to be the true arbiter of the award. Here are the BA/OBP/SLG for the two players:
297/320/483 - Ramirez
281/352/545 - Longoria
A 32 point OBP advantage and 62 point SLG advantage far outweigh Ramirez' 16 batting points advantage. It's the difference between a good 803 OPS for Ramirez and an 897 OPS for Longoria. Using Tango's quick and dirty OPS Wins formula, that's about 6.1 wins for Longoria and 4.3 wins for Ramirez. Based solely on batting.
Let's see what Baseball Prospectus says about their hitting, using Value Above Replacement Player, which relates their batting performances relative to a replacement player at their position:
21.7 - Ramirez
36.3 - Longoria
Wins are equivalent to approximately 10 runs, so BP confirms that the hitting different is around 1.5 wins. (Unlike the OPS wins, this BP measure is wins above replacement, which explains why the absolute numbers are so much lower than the OPS wins).
How about defense? BP says Ramirez has allowed 16 more runs than the average second baseman. Longoria has saved 15 runs above average for his position. (I'm a little surprised Longoria's number is so low...Longoria is one of the best I've seen at third). Anyway, that 31 run swing is a difference of about 3 wins.
Longoria missed 31 games, but has put up better rate numbers, and better cumulative statistics, than Ramirez who Kennedy credits with playing all year. A guy who misses 31 games but contributes about 4.5 wins more than another player, ought to be ahead in the Rookie of the Year race. The missed games are irrelevant, except to make the point about how much further ahead Longoria would be if he had actually been healthy!
Let's hope no one important was listening to Kennedy.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
My Favorite Players This Year Are...
...Cliff Lee and Carlos Delgado.
Why? Because they were both written off. Lee had a terrible season last year, and was considered done. Now he's 22-2 and is going to win the AL Cy Young going away.
Delgado was written off mid-season. It was widely reported that he would be given his outright release! I did a post about this, on a night when Delgado seemed to be turning it around. Before that game, in 74 games and 314 PAs, Delgado was .229/.306/.396 for a shortstop-like 702 OPS. Only 11 HR and 35 RBI.
Since that post, in 67 games and 296 PAS, Delgado has been .304/.395/.648 for a stellar 1043 OPS. With 24 HR and 69 RBI.
A moment ago, Kevin Kennedy said from the Fox Studio that Delgado is an MVP candidate. I don't think Kennedy is right, but to go from outright release to even one baseball insider calling you an MVP is redemption. Big time redemption.
Why? Because they were both written off. Lee had a terrible season last year, and was considered done. Now he's 22-2 and is going to win the AL Cy Young going away.
Delgado was written off mid-season. It was widely reported that he would be given his outright release! I did a post about this, on a night when Delgado seemed to be turning it around. Before that game, in 74 games and 314 PAs, Delgado was .229/.306/.396 for a shortstop-like 702 OPS. Only 11 HR and 35 RBI.
Since that post, in 67 games and 296 PAS, Delgado has been .304/.395/.648 for a stellar 1043 OPS. With 24 HR and 69 RBI.
A moment ago, Kevin Kennedy said from the Fox Studio that Delgado is an MVP candidate. I don't think Kennedy is right, but to go from outright release to even one baseball insider calling you an MVP is redemption. Big time redemption.
Ken Rosenthal
Ken Rosenthal is the on-the-field reporter for the Fox telecasts on weekends. He's awful.
First, I've never heard him say anything that you couldn't find anywhere else. He's no Peter Gammons.
Second, he's a terrible broadcaster. Everything he says has an air of bemusement about it. It's not quite as annoying as the look of bemusement permanently fused to George Bush's face, even when talking about tragedies. But Rosenthal had that look of bemusement while talking about Ned Yost's job being on the line if the Brewers miss the post-season. Is he proud of what he's saying? Have the producers told him to make it lighter, because it's Fox? Or is he flirting with Jeannie Zelasco?
Also, everything he says from the field sounds scripted...like he's reading from a teleprompter. It has the same feel as when a local reporter does a scripted lead-in from a live location, and then rolls a "package". Every time Rosenthal speaks, I think he's throwing to a package. But of course, there's no tape that follows. Just another scripted question from Zelasco and scripted response from Rosenthal.
How do guys like this get these jobs?
Side note: Jeannie Zelasco is dressed like Annie Oakley today.
First, I've never heard him say anything that you couldn't find anywhere else. He's no Peter Gammons.
Second, he's a terrible broadcaster. Everything he says has an air of bemusement about it. It's not quite as annoying as the look of bemusement permanently fused to George Bush's face, even when talking about tragedies. But Rosenthal had that look of bemusement while talking about Ned Yost's job being on the line if the Brewers miss the post-season. Is he proud of what he's saying? Have the producers told him to make it lighter, because it's Fox? Or is he flirting with Jeannie Zelasco?
Also, everything he says from the field sounds scripted...like he's reading from a teleprompter. It has the same feel as when a local reporter does a scripted lead-in from a live location, and then rolls a "package". Every time Rosenthal speaks, I think he's throwing to a package. But of course, there's no tape that follows. Just another scripted question from Zelasco and scripted response from Rosenthal.
How do guys like this get these jobs?
Side note: Jeannie Zelasco is dressed like Annie Oakley today.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Book Review: We Would Have Played For Nothing
"We Would Have Played For Nothing" is based on a concept originated by Lawrence Ritter in "The Glory of Their Times," one of the most well-respected baseball books out there. The concept is to let the players tell the stories in their own words, with the author getting out of the way, except as an editor. The Glory of Their Times contained interviews with some serious old-timers, of varying degrees of notoriety. The beauty of the concept was getting these players down on paper, before they were too old to carry forward the oral history of the majors. The downside of that book was that players would sometimes ramble, and while the lesser known players could offer an interesting perspective, they often did not.
This time the author is former MLB commissioner Fay Vincent, and he focuses on starts of the 50s and 60s. There are no interviews here with backup utility infielders. All but one of the interviews is with a true "star;" Bill Rigney was a long-time manager, and was fairly well known at the time, but was not much of a player. Another of the interviews is with a lesser star, Ralph Branca, famous for giving up the "shot heard round the world." Certainly a very good pitcher.
The rest of the guys are mostly household names. Frank and Brooks Robinson. Whitey Ford, Harmon Killebrew, Duke Snider, Robin Roberts. Even Lew Burdette and Carl Erskine, who don't fall into the household categories, were genuinely great pitchers in their day.
Perhaps because the players are more well-known, and because the time period is closer to us (though still primarily before I was born), "We Would Have Played For Nothing" is a fun read. Vincent's touch is not as light as Ritter's, and I think that's a good thing. Vincent has written a short (one page) introduction to the players, in case you don't know who they are. The rest comes from the players themselves.
It is apparent that they are responding to particular questions, and not just rambling on about whatever strikes their fancy. It is also clear that there was a lot of cleanup, because the player comments have a lot of data. I don't believe this many players could have absolute recall of game scores from 50 years ago, and there's a ton of that peppered in their comments.
I raced through the book...it is very accessible. If I had to complain about anything it would be the organization within each player's comments. I'm not sure if the players' comments are presented in the same order in which they were given on videotape tot he author, but if so, the ordering of the questions (not printed in the book) seems a little disjointed. It isn't obvious at the beginning. There's no surprise a player would ramble. But you start to see the pattern by the end of the book. There's always a section near the end about who the player thought the best players were, and the last question is clearly along the lines of "How would you like to be remembered?"
The most refreshing thing about the book is how humble and appreciative these players are, even though they were vastly underpaid. There's a lot in here about contract negotiations and their salaries, which means there's a lot in here about how stingy the owners were. Brooks Robinson tells of his GM saying he couldn't pay Brooks' requested salary because that's what Mickey Mantle made when the GM worked for the Yankees. There was no attempt to value the player. They just made him feel guilty for the request; like you know you aren't as good as Mantle, so stop pretending. In another situation with Robinson, they made him feel guilty for requesting $500 a year. This was in the 60s...$500 wasn't that much money.
Or Frank Robinson being told by the Reds GM he was going to cut his salary. The GM said "I hear your reputation, you don't always hustle." When Robinson asked where he got his information, the GM basically said that's just what I've heard, so I'm cutting your salary. Just an excuse to avoid paying Robinson, who had just turned in a season where he hit .296 with 33 HR and 113 RBI...and this was in the 60s, with suppressed offensive levels. The players didn't have agents. (Robinson, by the way, is the only player entry that shows a hint of bitterness).
Anyone interested in baseball and baseball history would enjoy this book. If you aren't from that era, you'll learn a lot about baseball in the 50s and 60s, and in an entertaining way. I'll leave you with an example:
Frank Robinson tells a story about batting against Don Drysdale, which he said was like "wrestling a horse or a mule, or being in a fight. That's how tired I would be after the ballgame." One time, with Robinson at the plate, the Dodger manager signaled to Drysdale that he should put Robinson on base. Instead of an intentional walk, or pitching around him, Drysdale drilled him in the ribs. When asked later, Drysdale said "Why waste three pitches?"
This time the author is former MLB commissioner Fay Vincent, and he focuses on starts of the 50s and 60s. There are no interviews here with backup utility infielders. All but one of the interviews is with a true "star;" Bill Rigney was a long-time manager, and was fairly well known at the time, but was not much of a player. Another of the interviews is with a lesser star, Ralph Branca, famous for giving up the "shot heard round the world." Certainly a very good pitcher.
The rest of the guys are mostly household names. Frank and Brooks Robinson. Whitey Ford, Harmon Killebrew, Duke Snider, Robin Roberts. Even Lew Burdette and Carl Erskine, who don't fall into the household categories, were genuinely great pitchers in their day.
Perhaps because the players are more well-known, and because the time period is closer to us (though still primarily before I was born), "We Would Have Played For Nothing" is a fun read. Vincent's touch is not as light as Ritter's, and I think that's a good thing. Vincent has written a short (one page) introduction to the players, in case you don't know who they are. The rest comes from the players themselves.
It is apparent that they are responding to particular questions, and not just rambling on about whatever strikes their fancy. It is also clear that there was a lot of cleanup, because the player comments have a lot of data. I don't believe this many players could have absolute recall of game scores from 50 years ago, and there's a ton of that peppered in their comments.
I raced through the book...it is very accessible. If I had to complain about anything it would be the organization within each player's comments. I'm not sure if the players' comments are presented in the same order in which they were given on videotape tot he author, but if so, the ordering of the questions (not printed in the book) seems a little disjointed. It isn't obvious at the beginning. There's no surprise a player would ramble. But you start to see the pattern by the end of the book. There's always a section near the end about who the player thought the best players were, and the last question is clearly along the lines of "How would you like to be remembered?"
The most refreshing thing about the book is how humble and appreciative these players are, even though they were vastly underpaid. There's a lot in here about contract negotiations and their salaries, which means there's a lot in here about how stingy the owners were. Brooks Robinson tells of his GM saying he couldn't pay Brooks' requested salary because that's what Mickey Mantle made when the GM worked for the Yankees. There was no attempt to value the player. They just made him feel guilty for the request; like you know you aren't as good as Mantle, so stop pretending. In another situation with Robinson, they made him feel guilty for requesting $500 a year. This was in the 60s...$500 wasn't that much money.
Or Frank Robinson being told by the Reds GM he was going to cut his salary. The GM said "I hear your reputation, you don't always hustle." When Robinson asked where he got his information, the GM basically said that's just what I've heard, so I'm cutting your salary. Just an excuse to avoid paying Robinson, who had just turned in a season where he hit .296 with 33 HR and 113 RBI...and this was in the 60s, with suppressed offensive levels. The players didn't have agents. (Robinson, by the way, is the only player entry that shows a hint of bitterness).
Anyone interested in baseball and baseball history would enjoy this book. If you aren't from that era, you'll learn a lot about baseball in the 50s and 60s, and in an entertaining way. I'll leave you with an example:
Frank Robinson tells a story about batting against Don Drysdale, which he said was like "wrestling a horse or a mule, or being in a fight. That's how tired I would be after the ballgame." One time, with Robinson at the plate, the Dodger manager signaled to Drysdale that he should put Robinson on base. Instead of an intentional walk, or pitching around him, Drysdale drilled him in the ribs. When asked later, Drysdale said "Why waste three pitches?"
Book Review: Ed Barrow
Ed Barrow was one of the first general managers, and he built the Yankees' dynasties in the 30s and 40s. Hence the title "Ed Barrow: The Bulldog Who Built the Yankees' First Dynasty." The book is written by Daniel Levitt, the co-author of Paths to Glory, which won a SABR award for research.
And that's where the primary value of "Ed Barrow" comes in: its research. It reminds me, in some ways, of a political biography, although Barrow never held office and probably could not have. There's a feeling here that Levitt read every in-house memo with the clubs and read Barrow's diary and private correspondence. You get the kind of details that could only come from sources like those. And because Barrow was league president (in the minors) and a GM, you get a lot of financial information about turn of the century baseball, like the chart showing team profits, dividends and retained earnings from 1920-1924.
So in that regard, it is a valuable book. The kind you are glad was written. But as a read, it can be a little dry. The first half of the book is dedicated to his pre-Yankee years in baseball, which consisted mostly of various managing, ownership and administrative roles in minor leagues. The Minors were different back then, and the book provides some insights into how the Minors interacted with the Majors, and how much different it was then, than now. However, the detail in this part of the book is almost overwhelming, and perhaps too voluminous to remain interesting for 100+ pages.
The most interesting portions revolve around attempts to form new Minor leagues, and in some cases, new Major leagues, like the Federal League and even the American League. Barrow had a role in many of these through his relationship with the baseball intelligentsia.
Barrow then gets tapped to manage the Red Sox, at a time when Babe Ruth was on the mound. The book begins to pick up the pace about this point, although the focus remains on Barrow's relationship with management much more than his relationship with players. There are few anecdotes about the players here; even one as colorful as Ruth. Barrow's relationship with Harry Frazee, the owner of the Sox who eventually sells Ruth to the Yankees, starts the transition to the more familiar aspects of baseball history.
The Yankees portion of the book does not show off as much research, though I trust it was done. Perhaps that's because the names here (Ruth, Gehrig, Dimaggio) are more familiar and the second half is less dry. I have to compliment the author, though, because the book avoids the biographer's trap of talking too much about the players and the games, and not enough about the subject.
Not only is there a nice recap of those early Yankee teams, you learn a lot about baseball's transactional rules (e.g., waivers and the 40 man roster) and how those developed. (Hint: it's like watching the owners making sausage). The trouble is, for an incredibly important baseball pioneer, I didn't find Barrow himself all that interesting. Probably his most interesting quirk is his love for boxing, and his penchant for confrontation.
All-in-all, this book adds valuable information to the baseball archives, and allows the reader to learn a number of things about the minor leagues, their relationship with the majors, and the behind-the-scenes decision making that the major league clubs engaged in regarding the players. I would not call it a "must read" or a "light read." It is not for the casual fan. However, if you are a member of SABR and enjoy their various publications, you will get a lot out of this book.
And that's where the primary value of "Ed Barrow" comes in: its research. It reminds me, in some ways, of a political biography, although Barrow never held office and probably could not have. There's a feeling here that Levitt read every in-house memo with the clubs and read Barrow's diary and private correspondence. You get the kind of details that could only come from sources like those. And because Barrow was league president (in the minors) and a GM, you get a lot of financial information about turn of the century baseball, like the chart showing team profits, dividends and retained earnings from 1920-1924.
So in that regard, it is a valuable book. The kind you are glad was written. But as a read, it can be a little dry. The first half of the book is dedicated to his pre-Yankee years in baseball, which consisted mostly of various managing, ownership and administrative roles in minor leagues. The Minors were different back then, and the book provides some insights into how the Minors interacted with the Majors, and how much different it was then, than now. However, the detail in this part of the book is almost overwhelming, and perhaps too voluminous to remain interesting for 100+ pages.
The most interesting portions revolve around attempts to form new Minor leagues, and in some cases, new Major leagues, like the Federal League and even the American League. Barrow had a role in many of these through his relationship with the baseball intelligentsia.
Barrow then gets tapped to manage the Red Sox, at a time when Babe Ruth was on the mound. The book begins to pick up the pace about this point, although the focus remains on Barrow's relationship with management much more than his relationship with players. There are few anecdotes about the players here; even one as colorful as Ruth. Barrow's relationship with Harry Frazee, the owner of the Sox who eventually sells Ruth to the Yankees, starts the transition to the more familiar aspects of baseball history.
The Yankees portion of the book does not show off as much research, though I trust it was done. Perhaps that's because the names here (Ruth, Gehrig, Dimaggio) are more familiar and the second half is less dry. I have to compliment the author, though, because the book avoids the biographer's trap of talking too much about the players and the games, and not enough about the subject.
Not only is there a nice recap of those early Yankee teams, you learn a lot about baseball's transactional rules (e.g., waivers and the 40 man roster) and how those developed. (Hint: it's like watching the owners making sausage). The trouble is, for an incredibly important baseball pioneer, I didn't find Barrow himself all that interesting. Probably his most interesting quirk is his love for boxing, and his penchant for confrontation.
All-in-all, this book adds valuable information to the baseball archives, and allows the reader to learn a number of things about the minor leagues, their relationship with the majors, and the behind-the-scenes decision making that the major league clubs engaged in regarding the players. I would not call it a "must read" or a "light read." It is not for the casual fan. However, if you are a member of SABR and enjoy their various publications, you will get a lot out of this book.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
New Joe Maddon Fan
I now love Joe Maddon, the Tampa Bay Rays coach.
In the 6th inning of tonight's game, Maddon got mad about a call at first base. Upton singled and overran first. In the umpire's judgment, he was moving to second, so when he was tagged, he was out.
In Upton and Maddon's opinion, he just overran first base. In the big leagues, if you overrun first base, you simply have to return quickly to first. You can't be tagged out in that situation. I saw the play, and I cannot conceive of how the umpire thought he made a move to second. He turned away from second to return to the bag. He didn't even twitch towards second.
Maddon got mad, and Maddon got thrown out.
In the postgame, Maddon was seriously pissed off, nearly an hour later, and didn't hide it. He said the call was "unconscionable, it can't happen, it's wrong, it's totally wrong" and "to make something up and then have it validated by the crew chief, really got me upset." He said he could understand missed calls on close plays, and missed balls and strikes, but nothing like this, particularly in a pennant race. He said "I'm not going to say anything more about it. I can't be any clearer about how I feel."
He'll probably get fined, but so what? Way to speak your mind Joe!
And he said something funny at the end. He is fighting a cold and a reporter asked him if he would have to go on the DL. He said he caught something on the road trip that he can't get rid of and then he said "and who knows, I may have given it to the umpires tonight."
***
By the way, I don't think Upton was hustling on that play either. It's no excuse for the call, but since he has been benched twice for not hustling, and then got thrown out at second last night during a home run trot (chased down from behind by Mark Teixeira), you'd think he'd be busting ass down to first.
In the 6th inning of tonight's game, Maddon got mad about a call at first base. Upton singled and overran first. In the umpire's judgment, he was moving to second, so when he was tagged, he was out.
In Upton and Maddon's opinion, he just overran first base. In the big leagues, if you overrun first base, you simply have to return quickly to first. You can't be tagged out in that situation. I saw the play, and I cannot conceive of how the umpire thought he made a move to second. He turned away from second to return to the bag. He didn't even twitch towards second.
Maddon got mad, and Maddon got thrown out.
In the postgame, Maddon was seriously pissed off, nearly an hour later, and didn't hide it. He said the call was "unconscionable, it can't happen, it's wrong, it's totally wrong" and "to make something up and then have it validated by the crew chief, really got me upset." He said he could understand missed calls on close plays, and missed balls and strikes, but nothing like this, particularly in a pennant race. He said "I'm not going to say anything more about it. I can't be any clearer about how I feel."
He'll probably get fined, but so what? Way to speak your mind Joe!
And he said something funny at the end. He is fighting a cold and a reporter asked him if he would have to go on the DL. He said he caught something on the road trip that he can't get rid of and then he said "and who knows, I may have given it to the umpires tonight."
***
By the way, I don't think Upton was hustling on that play either. It's no excuse for the call, but since he has been benched twice for not hustling, and then got thrown out at second last night during a home run trot (chased down from behind by Mark Teixeira), you'd think he'd be busting ass down to first.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Player Height, Pt. Two
Now for the American League. To keep things on par with the National League height analysis, I'll stick with the starting lineups from Sunday, August 10. And, of course, we have an extra player in the mix at DH.
The Yankees started an odd lineup on Sunday, with Molina, Sexton and Christian playing instead of IRod, Giambi and Cabrera. That's 13" difference, primarily because Sexton is the tallest hitter in baseball at 6'8". So even though they top this list, they are really middle of the pack. The Tigers are the shortest no matter how you slice it, although the normal starting lineup ties with the Orioles.
Needless to say, David Eckstein is the shortest hitter in baseball at 5'6".
Here they are sorted by starting lineup height (assuming a "normal" starting lineup), and the number of wins.
Height does not correlate nearly as well in the American League, at only .30.
However, wins are a factor of both hitting and pitching, and these height analyses only focus on the hitters. So how would height correlate with team performance if I gave them all an average pitching staff and calculated their pythagorean wins?
Actually, worse. The correlation b/w the starting lineup height and actual wins for MLB is 0.485 (between the NL and AL correlation figures). The correlation b/w the starting lineup height and wins if you only take offense into account is only 0.408. Still fairly correlative, but not much to go on. :)
Team Ht(In) ---- ------ Yankees 74.11 (72.67 with Giambi, IRod and Cabrera) Rays 73.89 (73.66 with Navarro and Longoria) ChiSox 73.78 A's 73.78 Red Sox 73.67 (73.33 with Youkilis) Rangers 73.33 (73.56 with Catalanotto) Twins 73.00 (73.33 with Gomez) Royals 73.00 (72.78 with DeJesus) Indians 72.67 Mariners 72.67 Angels 72.55 Orioles 72.44 (72.11 with Hernandez and Scott) Jays 72.22 Tigers 71.89 (72.11 with Guillen)
The Yankees started an odd lineup on Sunday, with Molina, Sexton and Christian playing instead of IRod, Giambi and Cabrera. That's 13" difference, primarily because Sexton is the tallest hitter in baseball at 6'8". So even though they top this list, they are really middle of the pack. The Tigers are the shortest no matter how you slice it, although the normal starting lineup ties with the Orioles.
Needless to say, David Eckstein is the shortest hitter in baseball at 5'6".
Here they are sorted by starting lineup height (assuming a "normal" starting lineup), and the number of wins.
Team Wins ---- ------ ChiSox 67 A's 55 Rays 72 Rangers 61 Red Sox 70 Twins 67 Royals 54 Yankees 64 Indians 54 Mariners 46 Angels 75 Jays 62 Tigers 58 Orioles 57
Height does not correlate nearly as well in the American League, at only .30.
However, wins are a factor of both hitting and pitching, and these height analyses only focus on the hitters. So how would height correlate with team performance if I gave them all an average pitching staff and calculated their pythagorean wins?
Actually, worse. The correlation b/w the starting lineup height and actual wins for MLB is 0.485 (between the NL and AL correlation figures). The correlation b/w the starting lineup height and wins if you only take offense into account is only 0.408. Still fairly correlative, but not much to go on. :)
Adam Dunn Projection
I thought it might be interesting to try and project Adam Dunn's post-August output, considering that he has moved to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
For these numbers, I have more or less ignored the fact that he played for Cincinnati for the first 10 days of August, and for ease of calculation, have pretended he was traded July 31.
I used a very simple projection model, weighting his last three years (2005-2007) in Cincinnati, comparing his pre-August to post-August performances, taking into account his abnormally low BABIP this year, and making some park adjustments from Cincinnati to Arizona. For park factor purposes, I treated him as I would any other player moving from park to park.
There's a caveat here, and that is Adam Dunn has always hit poorly in Arizona. His career OPS in all parks is 900, but in Arizona it is 735, and that's despite Arizona being at least as good a hitters park as Cincinnati. The reason I have not used that as a benchmark is that it represents only 150 plate appearances. The randomness in that 735 number is likely pretty high...perhaps as much as 100 points of OPS, most of it found in his slugging percentage, and most of that in his home run rate.
So here's the projection:
You might want to discount that a little for the problems he has had in Arizona. What the heck, here's a rough estimate, taking into account his struggles in Arizona:
For these numbers, I have more or less ignored the fact that he played for Cincinnati for the first 10 days of August, and for ease of calculation, have pretended he was traded July 31.
I used a very simple projection model, weighting his last three years (2005-2007) in Cincinnati, comparing his pre-August to post-August performances, taking into account his abnormally low BABIP this year, and making some park adjustments from Cincinnati to Arizona. For park factor purposes, I treated him as I would any other player moving from park to park.
There's a caveat here, and that is Adam Dunn has always hit poorly in Arizona. His career OPS in all parks is 900, but in Arizona it is 735, and that's despite Arizona being at least as good a hitters park as Cincinnati. The reason I have not used that as a benchmark is that it represents only 150 plate appearances. The randomness in that 735 number is likely pretty high...perhaps as much as 100 points of OPS, most of it found in his slugging percentage, and most of that in his home run rate.
So here's the projection:
PA AB R H 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO GDP Avg/ OBP/ SLG 203 155 27 36 5 0 12 36 47 47 1 .234/.407/.501
You might want to discount that a little for the problems he has had in Arizona. What the heck, here's a rough estimate, taking into account his struggles in Arizona:
PA AB R H 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO GDP Avg/ OBP/ SLG 203 155 25 35 6 0 10 33 44 44 1 .226/.389/.458At the end of the season, we'll see how close the actual August/September stats are, with allowances for small sample sizes for those two months of 2008.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Player Height
Watching the St. Louis Cardinals, and their lineup of apparent midgets, made me wonder which teams' starting lineups today were the shortest (excluding the pitcher).
We'll start with the National League to find out if this is interesting. Don't want to calculate the entire MLB if it's a boring question.
Since I used today's starting lineups, I added a couple of parentheticals if the regular starters would have made a significant difference.
Well I was wrong about the Cards. Glaus and Ludwick saved them, and Adam Kennedy and Brendan Ryan are not as short as they appear. David Eckstein, where are you?
The tallest lineup today was the Marlins, but if Kelly Johnson had played 2b instead of Omar Infante, the Braves would have the tallest lineup. If Votto and Bako had played for the Reds, instead of Andy Phillips and Hanigan, the Reds would have been second.
The Padres and Nationals tied for the lowest average height, but the Padres started Carlin instead of Bard at catcher. If Bard had played, the Nationals (which started a normal lineup), would have been the shortest.
Adam Dunn and Corey Hart are the tallest (6'6"). Ronnie Belliard is the shortest (5'8").
The presence of the Padres and Nationals at the bottom made me wonder if there is a correlation with the number of wins. Here they are sorted by starting lineup height (assuming a "normal" starting lineup), and the number of wins.
Visually height doesn't seem connected to wins, but the correlation is .59, which is a pretty strong positive correlation. The only thing that keeps it from being higher is the presence of the Braves and Reds at the top. If you take them out of the equation, the correlation jumps to .78. Of course, you can't do that.
We'll start with the National League to find out if this is interesting. Don't want to calculate the entire MLB if it's a boring question.
Since I used today's starting lineups, I added a couple of parentheticals if the regular starters would have made a significant difference.
Team Ht(In) ---- ------ Braves 73.38 (73.88 with Johnson) Marlins 73.50 Rockies 73.50 Brewers 73.38 Cardinals 73.25 (1 of 3 teams with two < 5'10" starters) Cubs 73.25 Reds 73.13 (73.75 with Votto and Bako) D-Backs 72.75 (73.25 with Hudson) Mets 72.75 Dodgers 72.63 Phillies 72.50 Astros 72.25 (71.875 with Wiggington) Giants 72.12 (2nd of 3 teams with 2 < 5'10" starters) Pirates 72.00 Padres 70.63 (71.12 with Bard) Nationals 70.63 (3rd of 3 teams with 2 < 5'10" starters)
Well I was wrong about the Cards. Glaus and Ludwick saved them, and Adam Kennedy and Brendan Ryan are not as short as they appear. David Eckstein, where are you?
The tallest lineup today was the Marlins, but if Kelly Johnson had played 2b instead of Omar Infante, the Braves would have the tallest lineup. If Votto and Bako had played for the Reds, instead of Andy Phillips and Hanigan, the Reds would have been second.
The Padres and Nationals tied for the lowest average height, but the Padres started Carlin instead of Bard at catcher. If Bard had played, the Nationals (which started a normal lineup), would have been the shortest.
Adam Dunn and Corey Hart are the tallest (6'6"). Ronnie Belliard is the shortest (5'8").
The presence of the Padres and Nationals at the bottom made me wonder if there is a correlation with the number of wins. Here they are sorted by starting lineup height (assuming a "normal" starting lineup), and the number of wins.
Team Wins ---- ------ Braves 55 Reds 52 Marlins 61 Rockies 53 Brewers 66 Cardinals 65 Cubs 70 D-Backs 59 Mets 62 Dodgers 58 Phillies 63 Giants 49 Pirates 53 Astros 57 Padres 45 Nationals 44
Visually height doesn't seem connected to wins, but the correlation is .59, which is a pretty strong positive correlation. The only thing that keeps it from being higher is the presence of the Braves and Reds at the top. If you take them out of the equation, the correlation jumps to .78. Of course, you can't do that.
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Japanese Ballplayers
One of the advantages of having a Japanese ballplayer on your team is the ability to sell advertisements to the Japanese. The Japanese are so crazy for coverage of American ballplayers, advertisers get exposed to the entire island of Japan.
Behind the Rays hitters, on the backstop, was an advertisement for Dandy House, at http://www.dandy-house.co.jp/. All the text on the backstop, other than the Web address, was in Japanese, so it was not possible for me to know what kind of business it is.
Through separate research I've learned it is a "men's day spa." I guess it makes sense that it's called Dandy House. Going to the Web site won't help you, as it is also entirely in Japanese. Most of the language is in picture format, so it can't be automatically translated, but here are some phrases I got from the text translation:
Triple burning body method
Self-depreciation dehairing (design dehairing)
Face slim
The triple burning body method, probably not legal in the U.S., is illustrated solely in Flash format. You'll just have to see it yourself. Suffice to say it is a weight loss method.
The "dehairing" is obvious, though not very eloquently stated. Why call a place "Dandy" and then use a term like "dehairing"? Anyway, it looks painful to me. Like they'll pull your whole face off:
How about face slimming? Here's some info about it:
Behind the Rays hitters, on the backstop, was an advertisement for Dandy House, at http://www.dandy-house.co.jp/. All the text on the backstop, other than the Web address, was in Japanese, so it was not possible for me to know what kind of business it is.
Through separate research I've learned it is a "men's day spa." I guess it makes sense that it's called Dandy House. Going to the Web site won't help you, as it is also entirely in Japanese. Most of the language is in picture format, so it can't be automatically translated, but here are some phrases I got from the text translation:
Triple burning body method
Self-depreciation dehairing (design dehairing)
Face slim
The triple burning body method, probably not legal in the U.S., is illustrated solely in Flash format. You'll just have to see it yourself. Suffice to say it is a weight loss method.
The "dehairing" is obvious, though not very eloquently stated. Why call a place "Dandy" and then use a term like "dehairing"? Anyway, it looks painful to me. Like they'll pull your whole face off:
How about face slimming? Here's some info about it:
The cog and the cheek which do not have the wasteful surplus fat are the important point in order to show to the sharp feeling which will be the whole face clear.Because of that the Hollywood star where “the face” is the commodity in order to maintain the sharp face line, has regularly used healing the face and the [se] from several dozen years ago.Please try looking at the mirror again.Haven't the sag of the cheek, the solid seeing and the double cog of the face started? As for the one which becomes matter of concern please try this healing which by all means, the dandy house in Japan introduces for the first time from Hollywood.
Saturday, August 02, 2008
Predict-a-Matic Results: August 2, 2008
Weaver gave up 4 home runs. Wouldn't have taken the odds on that one. And how 'bout that game score for Mark Buehrle. A 4!. Eveland later matched him, fulfilling my prophecy.
Jake Peavy did not throw a no-hitter today, but did pitch a pretty good ballgame.
Pitcher Bust Games: Avg GS: 31 Davies (47), Rogers (24), Eveland (4), Feldman (47)
Hitter Boom Games: Avg GS: 48 Thome (y), Griffey (n), Dunn (n), Uggla (n), Ross (44), C.Pena (n), ARod (y), Berkman (n), Burrell (n), Howard (y), McLouth (n), Aramis (n), Soriano (n), Stairs (n)
Hitter Bust Games: Avg GS: 44 Berroa (y), Ad.Jones (n), Bloomquist (y), Reed (n), Marte (y), Span (n), Taveras (y), Stewart (y), Mathis (y), K.Johnson (y), Francoeur (y), Erstad (y), C.Gonzalez (y), Ellsbury (n), C.Izturis (n), Y.Molina (y), Moss (n), San Francisco Giants (y), M.Young (y)
Game Winners: 10-5
Jake Peavy did not throw a no-hitter today, but did pitch a pretty good ballgame.
Pitchers IP H HR BB SO ER GS Over% Undr%
Weaver (LAA) 5.4 6 1 2 4 3 47 24 23
5.0 8 4 1 5 6 31
Mussina (NYY) 5.5 7 - 1 3 2 50 24 20
7.0 2 0 2 5 1 70
---------------------------------------------------
Maholm (PIT) 5.8 7 1 2 5 3 47 19 28
6.0 8 0 2 2 5 36
Lilly (CHC) 6.0 6 1 2 5 2 55 34 13
6.3 6 0 3 5 1 60
---------------------------------------------------
Buehrle (CHW) 6.6 7 0 1 3 2 55 36 17
4.3 14 2 0 1 8 4
Davies (KCR) 4.7 6 1 3 3 3 42 11 35
5.3 5 2 1 2 3 47
---------------------------------------------------
Sabathia (MIL) 7.0 7 - 1 6 2 60 50 9
8.3 6 0 1 9 2 72
Morton (ATL) 5.5 5 1 2 4 2 54 33 15
7.0 4 1 1 4 2 64
---------------------------------------------------
Rogers (DET) 5.4 6 1 2 4 3 45 18 31
3.3 6 0 4 8 7 24
Sonnanstine(TBR)6.0 7 1 1 4 3 49 24 23
6.0 7 0 1 6 2 55
---------------------------------------------------
Santana (NYM) 6.2 6 1 2 6 2 57 41 14
6.3 3 0 2 3 1 64
Oswalt (HOU) 6.2 7 1 2 4 3 50 31 19
6.0 6 1 3 7 4 48
---------------------------------------------------
Eveland (OAK) 4.9 5 0 4 3 2 47 12 31
2.0 8 2 2 2 9 4
Lester (BOS) 5.7 6 - 3 5 2 52 32 14
7.0 7 1 1 5 2 59
---------------------------------------------------
Fogg (CIN) 5.6 6 0 2 4 2 52 30 20
5.3 6 0 3 5 3 44
Bergmann (WSN) 5.5 6 1 1 5 2 54 29 15
6.0 6 1 3 2 5 37
---------------------------------------------------
Byrd (CLE) 6.1 8 - 1 2 2 50 23 23
7.0 6 0 2 1 1 60
Slowey (MIN) 5.9 6 1 1 5 2 55 35 16
6.0 6 2 0 7 5 47
---------------------------------------------------
de la Rosa (COL) (insufficient data)
Nolasco (FLA) 6.0 6 1 1 6 2 57 42 12
8.0 4 2 0 13 3 75
---------------------------------------------------
Burnett (TOR) 6.4 6 1 2 7 3 55 38 14
5.7 6 0 2 4 4 45
Feldman (TEX) 6.0 7 1 3 3 3 45 14 34
5.3 5 0 3 4 3 47
---------------------------------------------------
Blanton (PHI) 6.7 7 - 1 3 2 55 35 17
7.0 4 1 2 5 1 68
Looper (STL) 5.5 6 1 1 4 3 47 21 22
7.0 3 2 2 4 2 65
---------------------------------------------------
Guthrie (BAL) 6.6 7 0 1 3 2 55 36 14
9.0 4 0 1 2 1 76
Hernandez (SEA) 6.3 6 0 2 6 2 57 44 13
5.0 8 0 2 6 2 47
---------------------------------------------------
Zito (SFG) 5.8 6 0 2 4 2 52 26 17
8.0 3 0 4 5 0 77
Peavy (SDP) 6.8 5 0 1 8 1 68 72 3
7.0 5 0 0 7 1 70
---------------------------------------------------
Petit (ARI) 5.3 6 1 2 4 2 50 26 17
5.0 5 2 1 1 3 45
Kuroda (LAD) 5.9 6 - 1 5 2 55 35 16
7.3 4 1 0 6 1 72
Pitcher Boom Games: Avg GS: 64 Guthrie (76), Felix (47), Nolasco (75), Sabathia (72), Santana (64), Peavy (70), Burnett (45)Pitcher Bust Games: Avg GS: 31 Davies (47), Rogers (24), Eveland (4), Feldman (47)
Hitter Boom Games: Avg GS: 48 Thome (y), Griffey (n), Dunn (n), Uggla (n), Ross (44), C.Pena (n), ARod (y), Berkman (n), Burrell (n), Howard (y), McLouth (n), Aramis (n), Soriano (n), Stairs (n)
Hitter Bust Games: Avg GS: 44 Berroa (y), Ad.Jones (n), Bloomquist (y), Reed (n), Marte (y), Span (n), Taveras (y), Stewart (y), Mathis (y), K.Johnson (y), Francoeur (y), Erstad (y), C.Gonzalez (y), Ellsbury (n), C.Izturis (n), Y.Molina (y), Moss (n), San Francisco Giants (y), M.Young (y)
Game Winners: 10-5
Predict-a-Matic: August 2, 2008
More a pitcher's day than a hitter's day.
Jake Peavy may throw a no-hitter today.
Pitcher Bust Games: Davies, Rogers, Eveland, Feldman
Hitter Boom Games: Thome, Griffey, Dunn, Uggla, Ross, C.Pena, ARod, Berkman, Burrell, Howard, McLouth, Aramis, Soriano, Stairs
Hitter Bust Games: Berroa, Ad.Jones, Bloomquist, Reed, A. Phillips, Marte, Span, Taveras, Stewart, Mathis, IRod, K.Johnson, Francoeur, Erstad, C.Gonzalez, Ellsbury, C.Izturis, Y.Molina, Moss, San Francisco Giants, M.Young
Game Winners: Dodgers, *Baltimore, White Sox, *Cincinnati, Minnesota, Florida, Tampa Bay, Yankees, Milwaukee, *Mets, Boston, Philadelphia, Cubs, San Diego, Toronto
Jake Peavy may throw a no-hitter today.
Pitchers IP H HR BB SO ER GS Over% Undr% Weaver (LAA) 5.4 6 1 2 4 3 47 24 23 Mussina (NYY) 5.5 7 - 1 3 2 50 24 20 Maholm (PIT) 5.8 7 1 2 5 3 47 19 28 Lilly (CHC) 6.0 6 1 2 5 2 55 34 13 Buehrle (CHW) 6.6 7 0 1 3 2 55 36 17 Davies (KCR) 4.7 6 1 3 3 3 42 11 35 Sabathia (MIL) 7.0 7 - 1 6 2 60 50 9 Morton (ATL) 5.5 5 1 2 4 2 54 33 15 Rogers (DET) 5.4 6 1 2 4 3 45 18 31 Sonnanstine(TBR)6.0 7 1 1 4 3 49 24 23 Santana (NYM) 6.2 6 1 2 6 2 57 41 14 Oswalt (HOU) 6.2 7 1 2 4 3 50 31 19 Eveland (OAK) 4.9 5 0 4 3 2 47 12 31 Lester (BOS) 5.7 6 - 3 5 2 52 32 14 Fogg (CIN) 5.6 6 0 2 4 2 52 30 20 Bergmann (WSN) 5.5 6 1 1 5 2 54 29 15 Byrd (CLE) 6.1 8 - 1 2 2 50 23 23 Slowey (MIN) 5.9 6 1 1 5 2 55 35 16 de la Rosa (COL) (insufficient data) Nolasco (FLA) 6.0 6 1 1 6 2 57 42 12 Burnett (TOR) 6.4 6 1 2 7 3 55 38 14 Feldman (TEX) 6.0 7 1 3 3 3 45 14 34 Blanton (PHI) 6.7 7 - 1 3 2 55 35 17 Looper (STL) 5.5 6 1 1 4 3 47 21 22 Guthrie (BAL) 6.6 7 0 1 3 2 55 36 14 Hernandez (SEA) 6.3 6 0 2 6 2 57 44 13 Zito (SFG) 5.8 6 0 2 4 2 52 26 17 Peavy (SDP) 6.8 5 0 1 8 1 68 72 3 Petit (ARI) 5.3 6 1 2 4 2 50 26 17 Kuroda (LAD) 5.9 6 - 1 5 2 55 35 16Pitcher Boom Games: Guthrie, Felix, Nolasco, Sabathia, Santana, Peavy, Burnett
Pitcher Bust Games: Davies, Rogers, Eveland, Feldman
Hitter Boom Games: Thome, Griffey, Dunn, Uggla, Ross, C.Pena, ARod, Berkman, Burrell, Howard, McLouth, Aramis, Soriano, Stairs
Hitter Bust Games: Berroa, Ad.Jones, Bloomquist, Reed, A. Phillips, Marte, Span, Taveras, Stewart, Mathis, IRod, K.Johnson, Francoeur, Erstad, C.Gonzalez, Ellsbury, C.Izturis, Y.Molina, Moss, San Francisco Giants, M.Young
Game Winners: Dodgers, *Baltimore, White Sox, *Cincinnati, Minnesota, Florida, Tampa Bay, Yankees, Milwaukee, *Mets, Boston, Philadelphia, Cubs, San Diego, Toronto
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Manny to Dodgers
With Manny to the Dodgers, I'd say the Marlins cannot win. They didn't get a catcher, which they desperately need, since they are playing a 3d stringer. And they didn't get a big bat.
The Dodgers are now loaded in the outfield with Manny, Kemp and Ethier. Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones shouldn't, but will, receive more plate appearances this year. I bet the Dodgers let those stones drag them down simply because they are paying big money. It would be smarter to recognize they were stupid signings, and play the real talents.
The Dodgers are obviously counting on Casey Blake at 3b, at least this year. He's 32 years old, so he is not the future. I suppose Blake DeWitt showed them enough at 3b for them to find LaRoche expendable. A little surprising, but at least they made their move.
Boston is a weaker team at the moment. Bay is not as good a hitter as Manny, which means he won't adapt to the AL pitching as fast as Manny will adapt to the NL pitching. But, he will have the Green Monster, and he's a better defensive player.
Pittsburgh? What difference does it make? Andy LaRoche is a serious prospect and gets reunited with his brother Adam. Not much else to say.
The Dodgers are now loaded in the outfield with Manny, Kemp and Ethier. Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones shouldn't, but will, receive more plate appearances this year. I bet the Dodgers let those stones drag them down simply because they are paying big money. It would be smarter to recognize they were stupid signings, and play the real talents.
The Dodgers are obviously counting on Casey Blake at 3b, at least this year. He's 32 years old, so he is not the future. I suppose Blake DeWitt showed them enough at 3b for them to find LaRoche expendable. A little surprising, but at least they made their move.
Boston is a weaker team at the moment. Bay is not as good a hitter as Manny, which means he won't adapt to the AL pitching as fast as Manny will adapt to the NL pitching. But, he will have the Green Monster, and he's a better defensive player.
Pittsburgh? What difference does it make? Andy LaRoche is a serious prospect and gets reunited with his brother Adam. Not much else to say.
Mo Manny
As I've written before, I'm a Manny Ramirez supporter. He's such an incredible hitter.
I lost a little respect this week, though. Boston is in a tight playoff race, and I think Manny is tanking it. Not only is it a bad time for him to be denigrating the team, he seems to be punishing his teammates at the same time.
On the Marlins telecast last night they interviewed Dan Uggla about trades generally, and how they blend in with the team. Uggla said that you never know whether a guy will blend in and be a good teammate or not. Some very talented players join teams, and while their stats may contribute, they can actually bring down the team as a whole.
Uggla was not asked about Manny, but if the Marlins' clubhouse is so tight, what's gonna happen with Manny in there. Florida is a bunch of underachievers who probably play better because of a good clubhouse. When Josh Johnson came out of the game last night, Uggla went over to him, patted him on the back and said "Don't worry. We've got your back." He then went up and hit a two-run homer, which was the margin of victory.
In the dugout after the homer, Hermida must have hugged Uggla three times. And it's Hermida who is likely out the door if Manny joins the team.
I lost a little respect this week, though. Boston is in a tight playoff race, and I think Manny is tanking it. Not only is it a bad time for him to be denigrating the team, he seems to be punishing his teammates at the same time.
On the Marlins telecast last night they interviewed Dan Uggla about trades generally, and how they blend in with the team. Uggla said that you never know whether a guy will blend in and be a good teammate or not. Some very talented players join teams, and while their stats may contribute, they can actually bring down the team as a whole.
Uggla was not asked about Manny, but if the Marlins' clubhouse is so tight, what's gonna happen with Manny in there. Florida is a bunch of underachievers who probably play better because of a good clubhouse. When Josh Johnson came out of the game last night, Uggla went over to him, patted him on the back and said "Don't worry. We've got your back." He then went up and hit a two-run homer, which was the margin of victory.
In the dugout after the homer, Hermida must have hugged Uggla three times. And it's Hermida who is likely out the door if Manny joins the team.
Griffey to White Sox
Ken Griffey, Jr. is headed to the White Sox for Danny Richar and Nick Masset.
Right now the Sox outfield is Dye, Swisher and Quentin. That’s pretty good. Konerko at first and Thome at DH. Where does Junior play? If you put him in the OF, Swisher has to play first or sit. If you DH him, Thome has to play first or sit. If Swisher or Thome play first, Konerko's out of the picture.
The rumor is that Konerko will sit (thanks to Wes for the contribution). He is having an attrocious year. It would be a bad year at the plate for a really good defensive shortstop, much less at first base.
So I guess that means Griffey in center, Swisher at 1b and a Thome/Konerko platoon at DH. You don't want Thome at 1b if you can help it.
Another reminder of how fast fortunes can change (like Morgan Ensberg last year). Konerko has been very productive for the Sox over the years.
The White Sox really gave up nothing to get Griffey. Richar, who is the odd man out now that Alexei Ramirez is in the picture, and Nick Massett, who is already 26 and is doing journeyman work in the bullpen.
Why would the Reds want a second baseman?
Right now the Sox outfield is Dye, Swisher and Quentin. That’s pretty good. Konerko at first and Thome at DH. Where does Junior play? If you put him in the OF, Swisher has to play first or sit. If you DH him, Thome has to play first or sit. If Swisher or Thome play first, Konerko's out of the picture.
The rumor is that Konerko will sit (thanks to Wes for the contribution). He is having an attrocious year. It would be a bad year at the plate for a really good defensive shortstop, much less at first base.
So I guess that means Griffey in center, Swisher at 1b and a Thome/Konerko platoon at DH. You don't want Thome at 1b if you can help it.
Another reminder of how fast fortunes can change (like Morgan Ensberg last year). Konerko has been very productive for the Sox over the years.
The White Sox really gave up nothing to get Griffey. Richar, who is the odd man out now that Alexei Ramirez is in the picture, and Nick Massett, who is already 26 and is doing journeyman work in the bullpen.
Why would the Reds want a second baseman?
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Teixeira Trade
As ESPN has reported 250 times in the last two hours, the Braves traded Mark Teixeira to the Angels for Casey Kotchman and pitching "prospect" Stephen Marek.
What I'm wondering is this: what's it like to be Casey Kotchman right now? You are the starting first baseman on the best team in baseball. The playoffs are a foregone conclusion. The only question is how far.
Now you are going to a team that is on the downswing after a long long climb. The Braves, in one weekend, lost their three best players (Chipper, Hudson and Teixeira). The best hitter on the team is Brian McCann. And then who? Kelly Johnson? Jeff Francoeur? The best pitcher? Jair Jurrjens?
And the Braves are not clicking on all cylinders in the minors, at least on the hitting side, so no help is on the way. The Braves appear to have a strong set of pitchers in the minors, but Stephen Marek wouldn't seem to add much. He was not rated as one of the Top 11 prospects in the Angels' system by Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein.
In 2007, BP's book said: "He consistently delivers heat in the low-90s (topping out at 95), and supplements it with a nice curve and change, though his delivery needs work. He has work to do--he won`t be able to overpower people as easily in Double-A--but he`s among the organization`s best pitching prospects."
Wow, that's not bad. Problem is, he didn't make BP's 2008 book at all, after a lackluster performance in high A ball. The BP Web site predicts him as having a 10% chance of being a regular in the rotation in 2008, decreasing thereafter. In other words, he was expected to peak this year as a fringe starter.
Now he's already 24 years old in double A. So far he has been a game finisher for Arkansas, having started no games. Why did I call him a finisher instead of a closer? He has finished 20 games, but that's with only 3 saves. He's had 14 other relief appearances. Granted, in that role he is striking out more than a batter an inning, which is nice. Still, adding a closer to the Braves AA system isn't much of a boost, is it? Or do they think they can work some magic and make him a starter?
Kotchman goes from a real contender for the world title, to a team that is several years away from contending for a playoff spot.
Kotchman said this: "I'm not shocked. I'm overflowing with joy and thankful of the opportunity to go to Atlanta and play for Bobby Cox. I've heard a lot of great things about him."
I believe the part about playing for Bobby Cox. I don't believe for a second he is overflowing with joy.
What I'm wondering is this: what's it like to be Casey Kotchman right now? You are the starting first baseman on the best team in baseball. The playoffs are a foregone conclusion. The only question is how far.
Now you are going to a team that is on the downswing after a long long climb. The Braves, in one weekend, lost their three best players (Chipper, Hudson and Teixeira). The best hitter on the team is Brian McCann. And then who? Kelly Johnson? Jeff Francoeur? The best pitcher? Jair Jurrjens?
And the Braves are not clicking on all cylinders in the minors, at least on the hitting side, so no help is on the way. The Braves appear to have a strong set of pitchers in the minors, but Stephen Marek wouldn't seem to add much. He was not rated as one of the Top 11 prospects in the Angels' system by Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein.
In 2007, BP's book said: "He consistently delivers heat in the low-90s (topping out at 95), and supplements it with a nice curve and change, though his delivery needs work. He has work to do--he won`t be able to overpower people as easily in Double-A--but he`s among the organization`s best pitching prospects."
Wow, that's not bad. Problem is, he didn't make BP's 2008 book at all, after a lackluster performance in high A ball. The BP Web site predicts him as having a 10% chance of being a regular in the rotation in 2008, decreasing thereafter. In other words, he was expected to peak this year as a fringe starter.
Now he's already 24 years old in double A. So far he has been a game finisher for Arkansas, having started no games. Why did I call him a finisher instead of a closer? He has finished 20 games, but that's with only 3 saves. He's had 14 other relief appearances. Granted, in that role he is striking out more than a batter an inning, which is nice. Still, adding a closer to the Braves AA system isn't much of a boost, is it? Or do they think they can work some magic and make him a starter?
Kotchman goes from a real contender for the world title, to a team that is several years away from contending for a playoff spot.
Kotchman said this: "I'm not shocked. I'm overflowing with joy and thankful of the opportunity to go to Atlanta and play for Bobby Cox. I've heard a lot of great things about him."
I believe the part about playing for Bobby Cox. I don't believe for a second he is overflowing with joy.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Gobble Gobble
Jimmy Gobble came into the Detroit-Kansas City game in the 7th inning. The Detroit hitters had already put 9 runs on the board. He walked his first hitter, allowing another run in, but that was charged to Robinson Tejada.
He then got a ground out from Renteria to end the 7th. Too bad his day didn't end there.
In the 8th, he gave up 6 hits. Then retired 2. He then gave up 3 walks and another hit before being lifted. Unfortunately, Leo Nunez allowed all of Gobble's baserunners to score.
So that's 1 inning of work, 7 hits, 4 walks and 10 earned runs.
It's not like Gobble was having a good year. His ERA was nearly 8.00 coming into the game. Leaving the game, it was 11.31.
Now Gobble is no star, even among major league middle relievers. He has had a mostly mediocre-to-bad career, with ERAs in the fives. Except last year, he was really really good. Averaged nearly a strikeout an inning and managed a 3.02 ERA. In fact, I think he was my choice to represent Kansas City in the All-Star game last year. Admittedly, there weren't many options.
With tonight's inning, he has thrown 25.7 innings this year. I did a quick search to find out how many players since 1901 pitched more than 25 innings in a season and finished with an ERA greater than 10.00.
It has happened 25 times, most recently with Scott Elarton last year -- 37 innings at 10.46. Should we be surprised that he pitched for Kansas City?
There are five seasons on the list with ERAs worse than Gobble's. His work isn't done if he wants to set a record.
But here's the most startling record of the 25 players who had at least 25 innings and an ERA over 10.00. Roy Halladay is one of them! And he's the WORST one. He doesn't have the worst ERA in the group...only the 9th worst. But unlike nearly everyone else on the list who pitched around 30 innings, Halladay pitched 67.7 innings at 10.64 when he was 23.
So, if I refined the search to players with an ERA over 10.00 with at least 60 innings pitched, Roy Halladay would be the only guy on the list. If the criteria was 50 innings, we'd add one more: Micah Bowie managed 51 innings of horror in 1999, but his ERA was only 10.24.
He then got a ground out from Renteria to end the 7th. Too bad his day didn't end there.
In the 8th, he gave up 6 hits. Then retired 2. He then gave up 3 walks and another hit before being lifted. Unfortunately, Leo Nunez allowed all of Gobble's baserunners to score.
So that's 1 inning of work, 7 hits, 4 walks and 10 earned runs.
It's not like Gobble was having a good year. His ERA was nearly 8.00 coming into the game. Leaving the game, it was 11.31.
Now Gobble is no star, even among major league middle relievers. He has had a mostly mediocre-to-bad career, with ERAs in the fives. Except last year, he was really really good. Averaged nearly a strikeout an inning and managed a 3.02 ERA. In fact, I think he was my choice to represent Kansas City in the All-Star game last year. Admittedly, there weren't many options.
With tonight's inning, he has thrown 25.7 innings this year. I did a quick search to find out how many players since 1901 pitched more than 25 innings in a season and finished with an ERA greater than 10.00.
It has happened 25 times, most recently with Scott Elarton last year -- 37 innings at 10.46. Should we be surprised that he pitched for Kansas City?
There are five seasons on the list with ERAs worse than Gobble's. His work isn't done if he wants to set a record.
But here's the most startling record of the 25 players who had at least 25 innings and an ERA over 10.00. Roy Halladay is one of them! And he's the WORST one. He doesn't have the worst ERA in the group...only the 9th worst. But unlike nearly everyone else on the list who pitched around 30 innings, Halladay pitched 67.7 innings at 10.64 when he was 23.
So, if I refined the search to players with an ERA over 10.00 with at least 60 innings pitched, Roy Halladay would be the only guy on the list. If the criteria was 50 innings, we'd add one more: Micah Bowie managed 51 innings of horror in 1999, but his ERA was only 10.24.
Monday, July 21, 2008
Sabathia Trade
ESPN's producers get kudos tonight. During the Monday night telecast for the Brewers/Cardinals, Doug Melvin (Brewers GM) joined Steve Phillips and Orel Hershiser in the booth to talk about the trade.
What's neat is that they also got Mark Shapiro (Indians GM) on the phone and they extensively questioned Melvin and Shapiro about how the deal went down.
This was a truly unique perspective. No speculation about how it worked from a bunch of former players in the ESPN studios. The two dealers were there, live, answering questions about all the mechanics of the trade. It was useful also to have Steve Phillips, a former GM, asking those questions. He had a good perspective on the kinds of things that happen during major deals, but also a good sense of what the viewers would want to hear.
What's neat is that they also got Mark Shapiro (Indians GM) on the phone and they extensively questioned Melvin and Shapiro about how the deal went down.
This was a truly unique perspective. No speculation about how it worked from a bunch of former players in the ESPN studios. The two dealers were there, live, answering questions about all the mechanics of the trade. It was useful also to have Steve Phillips, a former GM, asking those questions. He had a good perspective on the kinds of things that happen during major deals, but also a good sense of what the viewers would want to hear.
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Predict-a-Matic Results: July 20, 2008
Pitchers IP H HR BB SO ER GS Over% Undr%
Duchscher(OAK) 6.0 6 1 2 4 2 54 33% 14%
7.0 6 1 3 4 2 58
Pettitte (NYY) 6.3 7 - 2 5 2 54 36% 13%
8.0 4 0 0 9 1 79
----------------------------------------------------
Verlander (DET) 6.1 6 - 2 5 2 54 29% 17%
8.7 3 0 3 3 1 76
Burres (BAL) 5.3 6 1 3 4 3 45 17% 34%
5.3 6 2 4 5 3 45
----------------------------------------------------
Pelfrey (NYM) 5.8 6 0 3 4 2 51 24% 20%
7.0 6 3 1 4 5 48
Volquez (CIN) 5.6 5 - 3 5 2 54 33% 15%
5.0 8 1 3 3 4 35
----------------------------------------------------
Perez (WSN) 4.9 6 0 2 3 2 47 16% 25%
5.0 9 2 2 4 5 31
Reyes (ATL) 5.6 5 - 2 4 2 54 30% 12%
2.3 7 0 4 1 6 16
----------------------------------------------------
Bannister (KCR) 5.8 7 1 2 3 3 45 16% 28%
3.0 8 1 1 4 5 26
Danks (CHW) 5.7 6 0 2 4 2 52 30% 19%
4.0 9 0 2 3 6 21
----------------------------------------------------
Dempster (CHC) 5.9 6 1 2 5 2 55 37% 12%
8.0 6 0 1 7 0 76
Backe (HOU) 5.6 6 1 2 4 2 52 26% 21%
6.7 8 1 0 8 4 52
----------------------------------------------------
Padilla (TEX) 5.8 7 1 2 3 2 49 22% 24%
7.0 3 0 2 0 0 69
Baker (MIN) 6.0 6 1 1 5 2 55 32% 15%
8.0 2 1 1 8 1 81
----------------------------------------------------
Lee (CLE) 6.7 7 0 1 5 2 57 47% 11%
9.0 11 0 0 4 2 61
Silva (SEA) 5.9 7 0 1 4 2 54 36% 14%
3.0 4 1 1 1 4 35
----------------------------------------------------
Duke (PIT) 5.4 8 1 1 3 3 42 12% 34%
5.0 10 2 1 5 9 15
Cook (COL) 5.9 8 1 1 3 3 46 18% 28%
7.0 5 0 1 2 3 56
----------------------------------------------------
Wakefield (BOS) 6.5 6 1 2 3 2 54 31% 16%
7.0 6 2 0 1 4 50
Garland (LAA) 6.0 7 0 2 3 2 50 24% 22%
6.7 6 0 3 6 2 57
----------------------------------------------------
Parra (MIL) 6.0 6 - 2 5 2 54 33% 19%
7.7 7 0 2 9 2 66
Lincecum (SFG) 5.9 5 1 2 8 2 59 44% 13%
6.0 6 2 4 8 5 44
----------------------------------------------------
Lowe (LAD) 5.8 6 0 2 5 2 54 34% 15%
5.3 7 0 3 6 4 42
Webb (ARI) 6.8 7 0 2 5 2 56 40% 10%
8.0 6 0 3 4 1 67
Pitcher Boom Games: Lee (61), Webb (67), Lincecum (44)Pitcher Bust Games: Burres (46), Duke (15)
Hitter Boom Games: .292/.358/.667 5hr 9r 11rbi -- Avg. GS: 52 -- Aramis (36), Soto (43), Sheffield (53), Ordonez (54), Thome (48), Dunn (64), Holliday (64), Hawpe (44), McLouth (45), Morneau (41), Chipper (51), Tex (75)
Hitter Bust Games: .186/.222/.209 5r 3rbi -- Avg. GS: 44 -- Figgins (52), Kendrick (50), Matsui (39), Bloomquist (45), Suzuki (41), Kemp (47), Delw.Young (47), En.Chavez (36), Ca.Gomez (41), Langerhans (41), Blanco (48)
Game Winners: 4-8
Predict-a-Matic: July 20, 2008
Pitchers IP H HR BB SO ER GS Over% Undr% Duchscher(OAK) 6.0 6 1 2 4 2 54 33% 14% Pettitte (NYY) 6.3 7 - 2 5 2 54 36% 13% Verlander (DET) 6.1 6 - 2 5 2 54 29% 17% Burres (BAL) 5.3 6 1 3 4 3 45 17% 34% Pelfrey (NYM) 5.8 6 0 3 4 2 51 24% 20% Volquez (CIN) 5.6 5 - 3 5 2 54 33% 15% Perez (WSN) 4.9 6 0 2 3 2 47 16% 25% Reyes (ATL) 5.6 5 - 2 4 2 54 30% 12% Bannister (KCR) 5.8 7 1 2 3 3 45 16% 28% Danks (CHW) 5.7 6 0 2 4 2 52 30% 19% Dempster (CHC) 5.9 6 1 2 5 2 55 37% 12% Backe (HOU) 5.6 6 1 2 4 2 52 26% 21% Padilla (TEX) 5.8 7 1 2 3 2 49 22% 24% Baker (MIN) 6.0 6 1 1 5 2 55 32% 15% Lee (CLE) 6.7 7 0 1 5 2 57 47% 11% Silva (SEA) 5.9 7 0 1 4 2 54 36% 14% Duke (PIT) 5.4 8 1 1 3 3 42 12% 34% Cook (COL) 5.9 8 1 1 3 3 46 18% 28% Wakefield (BOS) 6.5 6 1 2 3 2 54 31% 16% Garland (LAA) 6.0 7 0 2 3 2 50 24% 22% Parra (MIL) 6.0 6 - 2 5 2 54 33% 19% Lincecum (SFG) 5.9 5 1 2 8 2 59 44% 13% Lowe (LAD) 5.8 6 0 2 5 2 54 34% 15% Webb (ARI) 6.8 7 0 2 5 2 56 40% 10%Pitcher Boom Games: Lee, Webb, Lincecum
Pitcher Bust Games: Burres, Duke
Hitter Boom Games: Aramis, Soto, Sheffield, Ordonez, Thome, Dunn, Holliday, Hawpe, Morneau, Chipper, Tex
Hitter Bust Games: Figgins, Kendrick, Matsui, Ausmus, Marte, Fasano, Bloomquist, Suzuki, Adam Jones, Gathright, Kemp, Del.Young, En.Chavez, Ca.Gomez, Casto, Langerhans, Blanco
Game Winners: Boston*, Cubs, Cleveland*, Detroit, White Sox, Arizona, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Oakland*, Colorado, Minnesota, Atlanta
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Predict-a-Matic Results: July 19, 2008
Pitchers IP H HR BB SO ER GS Over% Undr%
Gallagher (OAK) 6.1 7 1 3 4 3 48 20% 27%
5.0 7 0 4 7 2 48
Chamberlain(NYY)4.4 3 - 2 8 1 59 47% 6%
6.0 6 0 1 8 1 63
----------------------------------------------------
Kendrick (PHI) 5.3 7 1 1 4 3 45 19% 26%
4.3 10 3 1 2 7 17
Olsen (FLA) 5.4 6 1 3 5 3 47 22% 26%
5.0 8 1 2 0 3 37
---------------------------------------------------
Beckett (BOS) 6.6 5 1 1 6 2 60 47% 9%
8.0 9 1 1 6 4 53
Saunders (LAA) 6.0 7 1 2 3 3 47 22% 25%
6.7 6 1 3 1 2 54
--------------------------------------------------
Wolf (SDP) 5.3 6 1 2 5 2 51 26% 20%
5.7 8 0 2 4 4 41
Wellemeyer(STL) 5.9 6 1 2 5 2 54 31% 17%
6.3 5 1 3 2 5 43
--------------------------------------------------
Sowers (CLE) 5.2 7 0 1 2 2 47 12% 29%
6.0 5 1 3 3 4 46
Batista (SEA) 5.8 6 1 2 5 2 53 31% 16%
2.0 7 1 1 2 8 11
--------------------------------------------------
Sheets (MIL) 6.3 7 0 1 5 2 56 41% 12%
5.0 9 0 1 3 2 43
Sanchez(SFG) 5.7 5 1 3 8 2 56 36% 15%
5.3 7 0 2 8 4 45
---------------------------------------------------
Halladay (TOR) 7.0 7 0 2 6 2 59 46% 13%
6.0 8 1 3 6 5 39
Garza (TBR) 5.6 6 0 2 4 2 52 29% 17%
7.7 2 0 0 6 0 83
---------------------------------------------------
Lannan (WSN) 5.4 6 0 2 3 2 50 22% 24%
6.0 7 0 3 4 1 55
Jurrjens (ATL) 5.7 6 - 2 4 1 56 35% 9%
6.3 8 0 1 5 5 42
----------------------------------------------------
Robertson (DET) 5.8 7 1 2 4 3 48 24% 24%
2.3 8 1 0 1 7 14
Cabrera (BAL) 5.9 6 1 3 4 3 48 23% 25%
5.0 5 2 5 4 6 32
----------------------------------------------------
Zambrano (CHC) 6.6 6 0 2 5 2 58 38% 13%
6.3 6 0 6 3 4 45
Rodriguez (HOU) 6.1 6 1 2 6 2 57 42% 13%
6.7 9 1 0 7 1 61
----------------------------------------------------
Meche (KCR) 5.6 7 1 2 4 3 46 19% 29%
6.3 2 0 1 6 1 71
Floyd (CHW) 5.8 7 1 2 4 3 48 26% 23%
6.0 4 1 3 6 1 63
----------------------------------------------------
Perez (NYM) 5.3 5 1 3 6 3 50 26% 21%
6.0 6 0 3 6 2 55
Fogg (CIN) 5.3 7 1 2 3 3 43 15% 35%
6.0 8 1 1 1 1 52
----------------------------------------------------
Billingsl(LAD) 6.1 6 0 3 6 2 55 37% 15%
5.7 7 1 3 5 3 47
Haren (ARI) 6.4 6 0 1 6 2 60 49% 8%
7.0 4 0 2 7 0 74
Pitcher Boom Games: 3-2-3 Avg GS: 52
Pitcher Bust Games: 0-1-0 Avg GS: 50
Hitter Boom Games: .360/.418/.697 6HR 22Run 20RBI
Hitter Bust Games: .244/.322/.308 3Run 4RBI
Game Winners: 5-8
Predict-a-Matic: July 19, 2008
Pitchers IP H HR BB SO ER GS Over% Undr% Gallagher (OAK) 6.1 7 1 3 4 3 48 20% 27% Chamberlain(NYY)4.4 3 - 2 8 1 59 47% 6% Kendrick (PHI) 5.3 7 1 1 4 3 45 19% 26% Olsen (FLA) 5.4 6 1 3 5 3 47 22% 26% Beckett (BOS) 6.6 5 1 1 6 2 60 47% 9% Saunders (LAA) 6.0 7 1 2 3 3 47 22% 25% Wolf (SDP) 5.3 6 1 2 5 2 51 26% 20% Wellemeyer(STL) 5.9 6 1 2 5 2 54 31% 17% Sowers (CLE) 5.2 7 0 1 2 2 47 12% 29% Batista (SEA) 5.8 6 1 2 5 2 53 31% 16% Sheets (MIL) 6.3 7 0 1 5 2 56 41% 12% Sanchez (SFG) 5.7 5 1 3 8 2 56 36% 15% Halladay (TOR) 7.0 7 0 2 6 2 59 46% 13% Garza (TBR) 5.6 6 0 2 4 2 52 29% 17% Lannan (WSN) 5.4 6 0 2 3 2 50 22% 24% Jurrjens (ATL) 5.7 6 - 2 4 1 56 35% 9% Robertson (DET) 5.8 7 1 2 4 3 48 24% 24% Cabrera (BAL) 5.9 6 1 3 4 3 48 23% 25% Zambrano (CHC) 6.6 6 0 2 5 2 58 38% 13% Rodriguez (HOU) 6.1 6 1 2 6 2 57 42% 13% Meche (KCR) 5.6 7 1 2 4 3 46 19% 29% Floyd (CHW) 5.8 7 1 2 4 3 48 26% 23% Perez (NYM) 5.3 5 1 3 6 3 50 26% 21% Fogg (CIN) 5.3 7 1 2 3 3 43 15% 35% Billingsl(LAD) 6.1 6 0 3 6 2 55 37% 15% Haren (ARI) 6.4 6 0 1 6 2 60 49% 8%
Pitcher Boom Games: Beckett, Zambrano, Rodriguez, Haren, Sheets, Sanchez, Chamberlain, Halladay
Pitcher Bust Games: Fogg
Hitter Boom Games: Beltre, Ibanez, M.Cabrera, Thames, Roberts, J.Buck, Thome, Dye, Braun, Hart, Wright, Beltran, Dunn, ARod, Sexson, Rollins, Burrell, C.Ross, H.Ramirez, A.Gonzalez, Pujols, Ludwick, Chipper, Teixeira
Hitter Bust Games: Figgins, Mathis, Fukudome, Theriot, K.Matsui, Pence, Marte, Bloomquist, Adam Jones, Fahey, DeWitt, J.Upton, Bako, Hannahan, Cust, J.Molina, Gardner, Padres catcher, Iwamura, Navarro, Langerhans, Nationals 3b or 2b (not Belliard), Blanco, Lillibridge
Game Winners: Boston, Houston (tossup), Seattle, Detroit*, White Sox, Arizona, Milwaukee, Mets*, Yankees, Philadelphia*, St. Louis (tossup), Toronto, Atlanta
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