Unlike the real voting process, I like to give the three gold gloves to three different outfield positions. Last year I had eclectic winners: Reggie Willits in left, Coco Crisp in center and Mark Teahen in right. Ahem. I don't expect a repeat.
Outfield FWS FWAA Pos Upton 6.7 0.9 cf Hunter 6.7 1.7 cf Ellsbury 6.5 2.0 cf (see below) Rios 6.4 1.2 rf (see below) Gross 5.3 0.0 rf C.Gomez 4.5 1.0 cf Crisp 4.1 0.0 cf Sizemore 3.8 -1.3 cf DeJesus 3.7 0.4 lf (see below) Wells 3.7 -0.3 cf Dye 3.6 0.6 rf Teahen 3.3 0.3 rf Granderson 3.0 0.3 cf Gutierrez 2.9 1.7 rf Payton 2.6 1.9 lf G.Anderson 2.4 0.3 lf Francisco 1.9 0.1 lf
Ellsbury is a tough one, because he is a top defender, but he splits time between the three positions and plays all of them well. I've prorated his numbers at each position to determine how he would fare if he played there all the time, so my evaluation of him will be done on that basis. David Dejesus, Alexis Rios and Jay Payton have similar problems, but not so pronounced. (Dejesus ought to be in left, and Rios ought to be in center, by the way).
Even though the averages are different depending on what position you play, I'll use 2.6 as the average WS for an outfielder. Since we are ranking them by position it shouldn't matter that left fielders get hurt by that average.
The only real contenders we have in left field are Dejesus, Ellsbury and Payton, all of whom split time among all three positions to one degree or another. Payton and Dejesus are the only two with their primary positions in left, but Ellsbury's left field numbers are better than Payton's. Nonetheless, Dejesus comes out ahead and gets the left field Gold Glove.
Right field appears to be Rios' province according to the chart above, but much of those positives came in center field, not right. Franklin Gutierrez has some good "pure" right field numbers. However, all of the right field numbers pale in comparison to Jacoby Ellsbury's right field numbers. Ellsbury is, quite simply, a gold glover at every outfield position, since he's definitely a center field candidate too. However, because there are other worthy center field candidates, Ellsbury gets my Gold Glove in right field. He'll move to center with Crisp gone, and they'll get even better in the outfield. Hard to believe, because Crisp is no slouch.
In center field the true contest is between Torii Hunter, he of the multiple gold, Alexis Rios and Jacoby Ellsbury. I've already given Ellsbury the award, so we'll eliminate him, but for the record, he has the best projected center field numbers. The chart would indicate Hunter as the choice, but Rios' numbers on the chart are suppressed by a pedestrian performance in right field. Pro rating his numbers for center, he comes out ahead of Hunter. The pro ration is a useful device, but it is not infallible. When it butts up against a known quantity like Hunter, I've got to go with the known quantity.
So the hardware goes to Dejesus, Hunter and Ellsbury. I like that look a lot better than last year's list.
Iron Gloves last year went to the two guys flanking Suzuki (Ibanez and Guillen) and Jerry Owens in center field. One wonders whether Suzuki's prowess hurt those two guys. Suzuki was below average this year, and Ibanez and Guillen rated as average this year. Hmmm.
Magglio Ordonez is a hands down winner of the Iron Glove in right field. Raul Ibanez is nothing if not consistent in left, and would get his second consecutive Iron Glove out there, if it weren't for Delmon Young, who stunk it up. Center is always hard, because there are no terrible defenders in center, except relative to the other center fielders in the league. Josh Hamilton is clearly the worst center fielder in the league, though, so it was a much easier call this year.
