For these numbers, I have more or less ignored the fact that he played for Cincinnati for the first 10 days of August, and for ease of calculation, have pretended he was traded July 31.
I used a very simple projection model, weighting his last three years (2005-2007) in Cincinnati, comparing his pre-August to post-August performances, taking into account his abnormally low BABIP this year, and making some park adjustments from Cincinnati to Arizona. For park factor purposes, I treated him as I would any other player moving from park to park.
There's a caveat here, and that is Adam Dunn has always hit poorly in Arizona. His career OPS in all parks is 900, but in Arizona it is 735, and that's despite Arizona being at least as good a hitters park as Cincinnati. The reason I have not used that as a benchmark is that it represents only 150 plate appearances. The randomness in that 735 number is likely pretty high...perhaps as much as 100 points of OPS, most of it found in his slugging percentage, and most of that in his home run rate.
So here's the projection:
PA AB R H 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO GDP Avg/ OBP/ SLG 203 155 27 36 5 0 12 36 47 47 1 .234/.407/.501
You might want to discount that a little for the problems he has had in Arizona. What the heck, here's a rough estimate, taking into account his struggles in Arizona:
PA AB R H 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO GDP Avg/ OBP/ SLG 203 155 25 35 6 0 10 33 44 44 1 .226/.389/.458At the end of the season, we'll see how close the actual August/September stats are, with allowances for small sample sizes for those two months of 2008.
