Friday, June 27, 2008

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 27, 2008

Worst day for the Predict-A-Matic in memory (three F's and no A's????). When Sidney Ponson pitches well, you know the predictions are gonna be ugly.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Owings   (ARI)  5.2  6   1   1   5   2  54  36%   27%
                4.0  4   1   2   6   3  46  Grade: inj   
Nolasco  (FLA)  5.2  6   1   2   5   3  47   8%   26%
                8.0  6   0   1   9   1  74  Grade: D (over penalty)
----------------------------------------------------- 
Jurrjens (ATL)  5.1  5   0   2   3   2  51  44%   21%
                8.0  3   0   1   3   0  78  Grade: C-(over bonus)
McGowan  (TOR)  6.1  5   0   2   5   2  59  24%    8%
                7.1  8   1   3   4   4  48  Grade: C
-----------------------------------------------------
Cabrera  (BAL)  6.1  6   0   3   6   2  55  37%   26%
                6.1  9   0   3   4   4  41  Grade: B
O.Perez  (WSN)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  49  17%   16%
                4.0  3   0   3   3   0  56  Grade: C
-----------------------------------------------------
Dempster (CHC)  5.2  6   1   2   5   2  53  38%   25%
                2.1  7   1   3   1   8   9  Grade: F
Contreras(CHW)  6.1  7   0   2   4   2  53  14%   19%
                6.0  7   3   2   3   3  47  Grade: B+
-----------------------------------------------------
Ponson   (NYY)  5.2  8   0   2   3   3  43  30%   37%
                6.0  5   0   4   4   0  62  Grade: B-(over bonus)
Martinez (NYM)  5.2  6   0   1   5   2  54  25%   13%
                5.2  6   0   5   4   6  34  Grade: C+(under penalty)
-----------------------------------------------------
Myers    (PHI)  5.2  6   1   3   6   3  50  23%   41%
                2.0  5   1   4   2   5  24  Grade: D (under bonus)
Gabbard  (TEX)  4.2  5   0   3   4   2  48  19%   16%
                3.1  4   2   5   4   1  47  Grade: C+
-----------------------------------------------------
Washburn (SEA)  5.2  7   0   1   4   2  51  33%   29%
                7.2  7   1   1   2   2  60  Grade: B (over bonus)
Wolf     (SDP)  6.1  6   0   1   6   1  61  29%    6%
                3.1  8   0   5   2   2  33  Grade: F (under penalty)
-----------------------------------------------------
Correia  (SFG)  5.2  6   0   3   4   2  51  43%   23%
                5.0  4   0   2   4   1  57  Grade: B
Eveland  (OAK)  5.2  6   0   2   3   2  51  26%    9%
                7.1  5   0   2   3   1  66  Grade: B
----------------------------------------------------
Pineiro  (STL)  5.2  7   0   1   3   2  50  37%   24%
                7.2 10   1   2   2   7  33  Grade: F          
Meche    (KCR)  6.0  6   1   2   5   2  54  15%   15%
                7.0  6   1   1   2   1  62  Grade: B
Pitcher Boom Games: Avg GS: 44

Pitcher Bust Games: None

Hitter Boom Games: 13-54 3HR 6R 5RBI

Hitter Bust Games: 14-44 5R 4RBI

Game Winners: 4-5

George Hendrick and Joe West

George Hendrick coaches first base for the Rays. Tonight, Joe West was the umpire at first. During a couple of camera cutaways, I noticed them chatting. That got me wondering, in a trivial sort of way, how many times those guys crossed paths.

West is an ump in the National League and has been since 1976. Hendrick played 18 years in the majors (and was quite good), about half of which were in the NL. He played for the Padres in 1977 and part of 1978, when he was traded to the Cardinals for Eric Rasmussen. He played great for the Cardinals, with an average OPS+ of 125, which means he hit 25% better than league average. Rasmussen went 22-30 for the Padres before returning to the Cardinals to be Hendrick's teammate. I'd say the Cards won that trade handily. Especially since they traded Hendrick to the Pirates in the 1985 offseason and got John Tudor and Brian Harper, two pretty good players.

Anyway, just to see if I could do it, I wanted to see how many of Hendrick's games Joe West umped behind the plate. My pre-research guess is 35, which is basically the number of games Hendrick played, divided by four (the number of umpire positions), and divided by seven, which is the average number of NL games that were played every night. I have no idea if this makes any sense. I spent 10 seconds thinking about it.

The answer was more interesting than I thought, mostly because I was pretty close with my prediction. West was the home plate umpire 30 times when Hendrick was a hitter at some point in the game. In three of those games, Hendrick was only a pinch hitter.

Also of note:

Hendrick was traded from SD to STL on May 23, 1978, but did not report and play in a game for STL until the 29th. West was the home plate umpire for a STL game on the 25th, so they just missed having one more encounter.

There were also (11) games where West was the home plate umpire for Hendrick's team, but Hendrick did not appear in the game.

Hendrick was an outfielder, mostly, so he wouldn't have had as much contact with West in the infield. However, in 1983 he played 92 games at 1b and in 1984 he played 1 game there. West was the first base umpire in none of those games.

O-Hustle

Watching the Marlins game against the Dbacks, Josh Willingham hits a high pop fly to LF. Byrnes, in left, can't find the ball. Drew, at short, can't find the ball. Chris Young, in center, can't find the ball and is too far away. This is a problem in Dolphin Stadium, where the lights are designed for football, not baseball.

Cantu is on second with the Marlins leading 2-1 and two outs. If the ball drops, he scores, the Marlins have a cushion and the inning continues with Mike Jacobs facing a shaky Micah Owings.

But it isn't going to drop, and you know why? Because Orlando Hudson made the play. That's right. Hudson ran from second base to left field and made the catch of the pop fly that Byrnes, Drew and Young couldn't make.

It was the best hustle play since Jeter's flip to home.

The other thing I liked about it is that Hudson got up after making the catch and yelled at the other guys to get their heads in the game. It was almost a "don't make me do this again!" kind of face.

Love the O-Dog!

Update: On ESPN's Baseball Tonight, this play ranked as the #5 Web Gem. The lead anchor said "I don't know how this one is only #5." One of the baseball analysts (Buck Showalter, I think) said "This is #5 because the people who pick these Web gems never played baseball and don't know how hard this is. This is a great play." True, but way to throw the producer under the bus.

Thin

From mid-April to May, there was talk of the Mets releasing Carlos Delgado. He was hitting .213, with 7 HR, 20 RBI and a paltry 670 OPS. At age 36, in his 15th major league year, he was considered finished.

Baseball's tough. We're talking about a guy who with 87 RBI last year, had his worst RBI year since 1995 when he only got 91 at bats. Beginning in 1996 when he became a regular, he has averaged .283/.380/.555 for a 935 OPS, with 35 HR, 112 RBI and 92 Runs. Three Silver Slugger Awards, two All-Star teams (should have been more) and three top 10 finishes in the MVP race.

I hate to see a guy like that decline, but I also hate to see people talk about his outright release. Especially for a such an nice guy who has won awards for his charitable work through MLB charities.

So tonight I was thrilled to see that batting line: 3-for-5, 2 Runs, 1 Double, 2 HR and 9 RBI. I hope this foretells a resurgence.

Predict-a-Matic: June 27, 2008

Nine games today.


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Owings   (ARI)  5.2  6   1   1   5   2  54  36%   27%
Nolasco  (FLA)  5.2  6   1   2   5   3  47   8%   26%
Jurrjens (ATL)  5.1  5   0   2   3   2  51  44%   21%
McGowan  (TOR)  6.1  5   0   2   5   2  59  24%    8%
Cabrera  (BAL)  6.1  6   0   3   6   2  55  37%   26%
O.Perez  (WSN)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  49  17%   16%
Dempster (CHC)  5.2  6   1   2   5   2  53  38%   25%
Contreras(CHW)  6.1  7   0   2   4   2  53  14%   19%
Ponson   (NYY)  5.2  8   0   2   3   3  43  30%   37%
Martinez (NYM)  5.2  6   0   1   5   2  54  25%   13%
Myers    (PHI)  5.2  6   1   3   6   3  50  23%   41%
Gabbard  (TEX)  4.2  5   0   3   4   2  48  19%   16%
Washburn (SEA)  5.2  7   0   1   4   2  51  33%   29%
Wolf     (SDP)  6.1  6   0   1   6   1  61  29%    6%
Correia  (SFG)  5.2  6   0   3   4   2  51  43%   23%
Eveland  (OAK)  5.2  6   0   2   3   2  51  26%    9%
Pineiro  (STL)  5.2  7   0   1   3   2  50  37%   24%
Meche    (KCR)  6.0  6   1   2   5   2  54  15%   15%

Pitcher Boom Games: McGowan, Pedro, Wolf, Meche

Pitcher Bust Games: None

Hitter Boom Games: C.Jackson, C.Young, H.Ramirez, Uggla, Millar, Scott, Edmonds, Soto, Konerko, Beltran, Wright, Burrell, Bradley, Hamilton, Greene, A.Gonzalez, Pujols, Aviles

Hitter Bust Games: Br.Jones, Blanco, Rios, Rolen, WM.Pena, R.Johnson, B.Anderson, M.Young, Bloomquist, Suzuki, E.Gonzalez, Bowker, Horwitz, R.Sweeney, Barton, LaRue, Callaspo, Gathright


Game Winners: Arizona, Toronto, Baltimore, White Sox, Mets, Texas, San Diego, Oakland, Kansas City

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 25, 2008

Not a bad day, in a lot of ways. The pitching predictions were pretty good if you eliminate the Detroit/St. Louis results, which were screwed up by a long rain delay in the 5th. The boom pitchers didn't boom, and I wouldn't say Sowers was a bust.

But the boom hitters boomed big time, and the bust hitters weren't so hot.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Johnson  (ARI)  5.2  6   1   2   6   2  54  41%   25%
                6.0  8   0   2   5   2  51  Grade: A
Wakefield(BOS)  5.1  6   1   2   4   3  46  10%   25%
                7.0  2   0   1   6   0  78  Grade: D (over penalty)
-----------------------------------------------------
Burres   (BAL)  5.2  6   1   3   5   2  52  35%   29%
                DNP
Lilly    (CHC)  5.2  5   1   2   6   2  56  18%   11%
                7.0  5   2   2   4   4  53  Grade: C+         
-----------------------------------------------------
Harang   (CIN)  6.2  7   1   2   5   3  52  30%   34%
                5.2  7   2   3   3   5  37  Grade: B (under bonus)
Halladay (TOR)  7.1  7   0   1   5   2  60  21%   13%
                6.2  9   1   4   7   5  41  Grade: C
-----------------------------------------------------
Santana  (LAA)  6.0  6   1   2   5   2  55  36%   28%
                6.0  4   1   5   8   4  51  Grade: B
Redding  (WAS)  5.2  6   0   2   4   2  52  19%   13%
                6.0  7   0   1   2   2  51  Grade: A
-----------------------------------------------------
Perkins  (MIN)  6.1  8   1   1   4   3  49  27%   40%
                5.0  6   0   2   2   3  43  Grade: B- 
Maddux   (SDP)  6.0  7   0   1   3   2  53  28%    9%
                5.2  7   1   2   3   6  34  Grade: C+(under penalty)
-----------------------------------------------------
Kendrick (PHI)  5.2  6   0   1   2   2  51  37%   24%
                8.0  4   0   1   4   0  77  Grade: C-(over bonus)
Smith    (OAK)  5.2  6   1   3   4   3  47  14%   20%
                5.2  7   0   2   3   4  42  Grade: A
-----------------------------------------------------
Batista  (SEA)  5.2  6   0   3   3   3  46  32%   32%
                2.2  5   3   5   3   4  30  Grade: D+(under bonus)
Maine    (NYM)  6.1  6   0   2   5   2  56  23%   10%
                6.0  5   0   2   3   2  55  Grade: A
-----------------------------------------------------
Zito     (SFG)  5.0  6   0   3   4   2  48  32%   33%
                6.2  4   0   0   4   1  68  Grade: B-(over bonus)
Sowers   (CLE)  5.0  7   1   1   2   3  42  15%   19%
                7.0  9   1   5   3   3  45  Grade: C
-----------------------------------------------------
Lohse    (STL)  5.2  7   1   1   3   3  46  27%   33%
                4.0 11   1   1   2   5  21  Grade: C (under bonus)
Galarraga(DET)  6.0  6   0   3   4   2  53  17%   16%
                4.2  8   3   0   3   4  37  Grade: D+
Pitcher Boom Games: Average GS: 47

Pitcher Bust Games: GS: 45

Hitter Boom Games: .354 2Dbl 1Tpl 3HR 13R 17RBI

Hitter Bust Games: .208 1HR 6R, 9RBI

Game Winners: 5-4

Predict-a-Matic: June 25, 2008

Messed around with the pitch count estimator to get a wider range of performances, though the medians and averages won't change much as a result. I'm also adding in the predicted game score, because I'm rounding numbers off here, and sometimes the rounding makes a difference. For instance, Randy Johnson is predicted at 5.8 innings. Is that 5 2/3, or 6 IP? I round to the closest, but the extra out makes a difference in his prediction.

I've also changed the name of the Stud% and Bomb%, as they are misleading. They are really the odds that the pitcher will do significantly better or worse than I predicted. Illustrative is Halladay's line. His "stud%" would only be 21%, which might lead you to believe he only has a 1 in 5 chance of having a great game. But that's misleading because that 60 game score is a studly performance. His median performance is studly! What the 21% really means is that the system thinks there is a 21% chance he will be significantly better than that median prediction.

I've also added Boom Games and Bust Games, instead of just the good hitters' games. I've done this for hitters and pitchers, though I'm still refining the pitcher system. Hitter booms and busts are limited to two per team. Good hitters usually boom and bad hitters usually bust, so no point listing all of them.


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Johnson  (ARI)  5.2  6   1   2   6   2  54  41%   25%
Wakefield(BOS)  5.1  6   1   2   4   3  46  10%   25%
Burres   (BAL)  5.2  6   1   3   5   2  52  35%   29%
Lilly    (CHC)  5.2  5   1   2   6   2  56  18%   11%
Harang   (CIN)  6.2  7   1   2   5   3  52  30%   34%
Halladay (TOR)  7.1  7   0   1   5   2  60  21%   13%
Santana  (LAA)  6.0  6   1   2   5   2  55  36%   28%
Redding  (WAS)  5.2  6   0   2   4   2  52  19%   13%
Perkins  (MIN)  6.1  8   1   1   4   3  49  27%   40%
Maddux   (SDP)  6.0  7   0   1   3   2  53  28%    9%
Kendrick (PHI)  5.2  6   0   1   2   2  51  37%   24%
Smith    (OAK)  5.2  6   1   3   4   3  47  14%   20%
Batista  (SEA)  5.2  6   0   3   3   3  46  32%   32%
Maine    (NYM)  6.1  6   0   2   5   2  56  23%   10%
Zito     (SFG)  5.0  6   0   3   4   2  48  32%   33%
Sowers   (CLE)  5.0  7   1   1   2   3  42  15%   19%
Lohse    (STL)  5.2  7   1   1   3   3  46  27%   33%
Galarraga(DET)  6.0  6   0   3   4   2  53  17%   16%

Pitcher Boom Games: R.Johnson, Halladay, Maine, Lilly, Maddux


Pitcher Bust Games: Sowers


Hitter Boom Games: Tracy, C.Young, Lowell, Scott, Soto, A.Ramirez, V.Guerrero, Kotchman, Kouzmanoff, A.Gonzalez, Burrell, Howard, Cust, Beltran, Wright, Rowand, B.Molina, Ankiel, Sheffield, Thames


Hitter Bust Games: Moss, Lugo, Cintron, A.Jones, E.Patterson, Hopper, Bako, Kendrick, E.Aybar, W.Harris, C.Gomez, B.Harris, E.Gonzalez, Bloomquist, Ichiro, Barton, Kennedy


Game Winners: San Diego, Arizona, Cubs, Toronto, Washington, Philadelphia, Mets, Cleveland (tossup), Detroit

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

More on Negative Game Scores

Last year in July I did a post about 2007's high number of negative game scores for starting pitchers.

From 1956-2006, there had been only 103 games in which the starting pitcher earned a negative game score. By the time of my post in late July 2007, seven had already occurred in those 4 months of the season. Three names were added by the end of the season, which brought the number to 10 for the year.

We are approaching early July 2008, and before tonight's game, we had only two negative performances. One from Jason Simontacci (-2) and one from Jarrod Washburn (-1). Tonight we will add Bronson Arroyo, who turned in a -9 in one inning of work. Last year Jason Jennings produced a -11 in only 2/3 of an inning. Hurdle pulled him at 39 pitches. Arroyo this evening threw 52 pitches before Dusty decided to pull him.

It's interesting how many fewer negative scores we have had this year compared to last. Could the managers be learning? Maybe, but it is too soon to call.

I looked at 2006 and was surprised to see 10 negative game scores. That means in 2006 and 2007, 20 of the 115 negative game scores since 1956 occurred -- 17%, just in those two years. How about for the decade? Fifty negative game scores, or a whopping 44%. Here are the number of negative game scores by decade (60's through 00's, there were none from 1956-1959):

'00s  51, and it's only mid-way through 2008
'90s  46
'80s   8
'70s   8
'60s   1


Of the negative game scores, here is the average negative game score for the last four decades:
'00s  -4.9
'90s  -4.5
'80s  -3.5
'70s  -4.0

So not only are they occurring much more frequently, the pitchers are suffering more.

It's pretty interesting that as pitchers are less expected to throw a CG, thus shifting more responsibility to bullpens, they are also less likely to get the hook in an early blowout.

But there's one more tidbit that may absolve these managers. Out of those 115 negative game scores, only 19 involved pitchers throwing less than 60 pitches in the game. All but one of those 19 occurred since 1993. The other one was in 1988.

That indicates that prior to 1993, a larger number of pitchers were lifted when they approached their max pitch counts...they basically went as far as they could, to protect the bullpen.

But since 1993, it is more likely a pitcher will be pulled before the max pitch count is approached, which seems to be a recognition by managers that they need to get them out of there. Cincinnati's game was lost in the first inning. Dusty could have left Arroyo out for another 30 pitches, with no effect on the W-L record, but he pulled him.

Confusing: more negative game scores + worse game scores + lower pitch counts.

My initial conclusion is the pitchers are simply much worse. They are pitching horribly more often, and the horrible incidents are worse, and they are doing it without even going as deep into their max pitch count as was previously true.

1993 is no accident. It was an expansion year.

Dusty Baker Strikes Again

Has Dusty Baker lost his mind?

First, he batted Adam Dunn second in the order. That makes NO sense. He has 40+ home runs each of the last four years, but you are sending him up where the guys on base will consist of Norris Hopper and Paul Bako, if it is a really lucky night. Plus, the guy is a strikeout machine, and slow as Christmas.

Second, Baker left Bronson Arroyo in to rot and die on the mound. Who lets their pitcher get touched for 11 hits and a walk in one inning???!!! And 10 earned runs in 1 inning? This is a veteran pitcher who is already struggling. What is gained by humiliating him?

I wrote something similar last year in connection with a performance by Jon Garland (later matched, in a bad way, by Jason Jennings and Yovani Gallardo). It doesn't surprise me that Ozzie Guillen, Ned Yost and Phil Garner all make the list with Dusty, but it does surprise me that all three of these guys had substantial major league careers but expect the pitcher to take this kind of abuse.

Maybe it's just bullpen management and I'm overreacting.

BTW, Arroyo is just the 6th pitcher in the last 51 years to give up more than 10 runs in 1 inning or less.

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 22, 2008

Pretty average on the pitching predictions, dragged down by Kyle Davies. I should have known that one was off. Others were just weird, like Dempster going 8 (surprise), giving up 10 hits (surprise) and then only 1 run on those 10 hits.

The hitting and W-L predictors were excellent today.


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Cueto    (CIN)  5.0  6   1   3   5   4  16%   51%
5.0  4   0   0   7   1  Grade: B-
Pettitte (NYY)  6.0  6   0   2   5   2  18%   17%
6.0  4   0   2   4   0  Grade: A-
------------------------------------------------
Piniero  (STL)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  30%   19%
7.0  7   1   0   1   2  Grade: B-
Lester   (BOS)  5.1  5   1   3   4   2  13%   19%
7.1  9   0   1   3   2  Grade: C-
------------------------------------------------
Vazquez  (CHW)  6.2  6   1   2   8   2  39%   23%
6.0  5   2   5   4   4  Grade: C+
Dempster (CHC)  6.0  5   0   2   5   2  25%   11%
8.0 10   0   1   4   1  Grade: D+
------------------------------------------------
Byrd     (CLE)  6.0  7   1   1   3   2  34%   28%
7.0  7   1   0   1   4  Grade: B
Billing..(LAD)  6.0  5   0   2   8   2  22%   11%
5.0  8   0   1   4   3  Grade: C+
------------------------------------------------
Silva    (SEA)  6.0  7   0   1   3   3  35%   30%
4.0  9   3   0   1   4  Grade: C- (bomb bonus)
Hudson   (ATL)  6.2  7   0   1   4   2  24%    8%
7.0  4   0   4   2   0  Grade: B-
------------------------------------------------
Weaver   (LAA)  5.2  6   1   2   4   3  29%   35%
5.1  4   0   3   6   1  Grade: B-
Hamels   (PHI)  6.2  6   1   1   5   2  19%   12%
7.0  6   1   0   4   3  Grade: A
------------------------------------------------
Lincecum (SFG)  6.1  6   0   2   6   2  47%   23%
5.0  6   0   2   8   5  Grade: C+
Davies   (KCR)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  22%   16%
1.1  6   0   2   1   5  Grade: F (bomb penalty)
------------------------------------------------
Miller   (FLA)  5.0  5   0   3   4   2  39%   26%
4.0  7   0   2   1   4  Grade: C+
Duchsch..(OAK)  6.0  5   0   1   5   2  22%    8%
7.2  6   1   2   3   1  Grade: C+
------------------------------------------------
McGowan  (TOR)  6.0  6   0   2   5   2  42%   25%
5.0  9   0   1   2   3  Grade: B-
Snell    (PIT)  6.1  7   0   2   5   2  18%   16%
4.0  8   1   4   2   4  Grade: D
------------------------------------------------
Padilla  (TEX)  5.2  7   0   2   4   2  32%   32%
7.0  5   2   2   5   3  Grade: C+
Lannan   (WAS)  5.2  7   0   2   4   2  16%   15%
6.0  4   2   0   6   2  Grade: B
------------------------------------------------
Verlander(DET)  6.2  6   0   2   5   2  45%   24%
5.1  5   1   5  10   2  Grade: C+
Wolf     (SDP)  5.2  6   1   2   5   2  18%   14%
6.0  6   1   4  10   2  Grade: A

Big Games: 16-54 10R 14RBI, 3DBL, 5HR

Game Winners: 7-4

Predict-a-Matic: June 22, 2008

Looks like eleven games is about all I can manage in the 1 hour of time I've allotted for this activity.


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Cueto    (CIN)  5.0  6   1   3   5   4  16%   51%
Pettitte (NYY)  6.0  6   0   2   5   2  18%   17%
Piniero  (STL)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  30%   19%
Lester   (BOS)  5.1  5   1   3   4   2  13%   19%
Vazquez  (CHW)  6.2  6   1   2   8   2  39%   23%
Dempster (CHC)  6.0  5   0   2   5   2  25%   11%
Byrd     (CLE)  6.0  7   1   1   3   2  34%   28%
Billing..(LAD)  6.0  5   0   2   8   2  22%   11%
Silva    (SEA)  6.0  7   0   1   3   3  35%   30%
Hudson   (ATL)  6.2  7   0   1   4   2  24%    8%
Weaver   (LAA)  5.2  6   1   2   4   3  29%   35%
Hamels   (PHI)  6.2  6   1   1   5   2  19%   12%
Lincecum (SFG)  6.1  6   0   2   6   2  47%   23%
Davies   (KCR)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  22%   16%
Miller   (FLA)  5.0  5   0   3   4   2  39%   26%
Duchsch..(OAK)  6.0  5   0   1   5   2  22%    8%
McGowan  (TOR)  6.0  6   0   2   5   2  42%   25%
Snell    (PIT)  6.1  7   0   2   5   2  18%   16%
Padilla  (TEX)  5.2  7   0   2   4   2  32%   32%
Lannan   (WAS)  5.2  7   0   2   4   2  16%   15%
Verlander(DET)  6.2  6   0   2   5   2  45%   24%
Wolf     (SDP)  5.2  6   1   2   5   2  18%   14%

Big Games: A-Rod, Giambi, Ludwick, Glaus, A.Ramirez, Kent, Loney, McCann, Teixeira, V.Guerrero, Burrell, Howard, B.Molina, Hamilton, Dukes

Game Winners: Yankees, Boston, Cubs, Dodgers, Atlanta, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Oakland, Pittsburgh (tossup), Washington, Detroit (tossup)

Saturday, June 21, 2008

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 21, 2008

Pitching predictions were about average, though I can't do much better than the Wandy Rodriguez and Daniel Cabrera predictions. I'm only truly disappointed in the Pedro Martinez and Ubaldo Jimenez results.

Big game predictions were about normal for this system...didn't predict BA very well, but the homers, runs and rbi are considerably better than average. The win-loss predictor did nothing again.

Overall a B- for the day.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Contreras(CHW) 6.1 7 0 2 4 2 31% 33%
3.1 10 3 2 1 9 Grade: D (bomb bonus)
Marquis (CHC) 5.2 6 0 2 4 2 18% 18%
7.0 8 2 1 4 5 Grade: C-
---------------------------------------------------
Sabathia (CLE) 7.0 7 0 1 6 2 44% 21%
7.0 5 1 1 10 1 Grade: A-(stud bonus)
Park (LAD) 6.0 7 2 3 5 4 3% 59%
5.0 3 1 2 9 1 Grade: D (stud penalty)
--------------------------------------------------
Rodriguez(HOU) 5.2 6 0 2 5 2 37% 28%
5.2 5 1 2 6 2 Grade: A
Jackson (TBR) 5.1 6 1 3 4 3 17% 24%
6.1 5 1 3 3 2 Grade: B+
-------------------------------------------------
Washburn (SEA) 5.2 7 1 2 3 3 27% 38%
5.2 6 0 3 8 1 Grade: B-
Jurrjens (ATL) 5.2 6 0 2 4 2 27% 9%
6.0 3 0 2 4 0 Grade: B
-------------------------------------------------
Owings (ARI) 5.2 6 0 1 4 2 38% 26%
6.1 5 0 1 3 3 Grade: B
Blackburn(MIN) 6.2 8 0 1 4 3 12% 21%
7.0 3 0 0 3 1 Grade: C-(stud penalty)
-------------------------------------------------
Saunders (LAA) 5.2 7 1 2 4 3 27% 39%
7.0 5 1 2 3 2 Grade: B-
Myers (PHI) 7.0 7 1 2 6 3 10% 26%
7.2 6 3 2 7 4 Grade: B
-------------------------------------------------
Correia (SFG) 7.0 7 1 2 5 3 32% 32%
5.0 6 0 4 2 3 Grade: C
Meche (KCR) 6.1 7 0 2 4 2 18% 16%
5.2 3 0 2 7 1 Grade: B-(stud penalty)
-------------------------------------------------
Cabrera (BAL) 6.0 6 1 3 5 3 25% 44%
6.0 7 1 3 8 3 Grade: A
McClung (MIL) 6.1 5 0 2 6 2 24% 12%
6.2 3 1 5 6 2 Grade: A-
-------------------------------------------------
Nolasco (FLA) 5.2 6 1 2 4 3 29% 38%
7.0 7 0 1 3 3 Grade: B
Eveland (OAK) 5.1 5 0 3 5 2 22% 11%
6.1 8 0 2 4 2 Grade: B
-------------------------------------------------
Litsch (TOR) 5.2 7 1 1 3 2 36% 29%
6.0 5 3 1 2 6 Grade: C+(bomb bonus)
Maholm (PIT) 6.1 7 0 1 4 2 14% 17%
7.0 7 0 3 1 3 Grade: B+
-------------------------------------------------
Martinez (NYM) 5.2 6 0 1 6 2 49% 19%
4.1 9 1 5 6 Grade: D (bomb penalty)
Jimenez (COL) 5.1 5 0 3 5 2 20% 17%
8.0 2 0 4 2 1 Grade: D (stud penalty)


Big Games: 19-73, 10R, 13RBI, 5HR

Game Winners:
6-5

Predict-a-Matic: June 21, 2008

Eleven of the 15 games today, avoiding the mystery pitchers in CIN @ NYY, STL @ BOS, and TEX @ WAS, and just plain not interested in DET @ SD.


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Contreras(CHW) 6.1 7 0 2 4 2 31% 33%
Marquis (CHC) 5.2 6 0 2 4 2 18% 18%
Sabathia (CLE) 7.0 7 0 1 6 2 44% 21%
Park (LAD) 6.0 7 2 3 5 4 3% 59%
Rodriguez(HOU) 5.2 6 0 2 5 2 37% 28%
Jackson (TBR) 5.1 6 1 3 4 3 17% 24%
Washburn (SEA) 5.2 7 1 2 3 3 27% 38%
Jurrjens (ATL) 5.2 6 0 2 4 2 27% 9%
Owings (ARI) 5.2 6 0 1 4 2 38% 26%
Blackburn(MIN) 6.2 8 0 1 4 3 12% 21%
Saunders (LAA) 5.2 7 1 2 4 3 27% 39%
Myers (PHI) 7.0 7 1 2 6 3 10% 26%
Correia (SFG) 7.0 7 1 2 5 3 32% 32%
Meche (KCR) 6.1 7 0 2 4 2 18% 16%
Cabrera (BAL) 6.0 6 1 3 5 3 25% 44%
McClung (MIL) 6.1 5 0 2 6 2 24% 12%
Nolasco (FLA) 5.2 6 1 2 4 3 29% 38%
Eveland (OAK) 5.1 5 0 3 5 2 22% 11%
Litsch (TOR) 5.2 7 1 1 3 2 36% 29%
Maholm (PIT) 6.1 7 0 1 4 2 14% 17%
Martinez (NYM) 5.2 6 0 1 6 2 49% 19%
Jimenez (COL) 5.1 5 0 3 5 2 20% 17%

Big Games: Dye, Soto, Sizemore, Francisco, Garko, C.Lee, Berkman, C.Jones, Teixeira, C.Jackson, Tracy, Kotchman, V.Guerrero, Burrell, Scott, Branyan, Fielder, Cust, Chavez, McLouth, Wright

Game Winners: Cubs (tossup), Cleveland, Houston (tossup), Atlanta, Arizona (tossup), Philadelphia, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Mets

April 9, 1978

All of the individual opening days having occurred, the teams could begin to settle into the idea of the long season, and getting off to a hot start.

Expos at Mets

Notable only because it was a scheduled Sunday doubleheader, something you just don't see anymore, thanks to the MLB Players Association. The teams split. Expos pitcher Wayne Twitchell managed to walk five batters in the first 1.1 innings of game 1, before being pulled. Ross Grimsley pitched a shutout for the Expos in game 2.

Another sign of the times? Gary Carter caught both ends of the doubleheader. All 18 innings.

Cubs at Pirates

Cubs won this game 4-3, but something else caught my eye. Bill Buckner stole two bases in this game. Not exactly remembered for his speed and agility, thanks largely to his time in Boston when his knees were shot. He stole both off the battery of Jerry Reuss and Manny Sanguillen. I don't know anything about Reuss' pickoff move, but I know he was a lefty, which tends to suppress steals of second. Not a junkballer either. The James/Neyer Guide to Pitchers says he threw mostly fastballs, and quotes Steve Yeager as saying he might throw as many as 5 curveballs a game. Sanguillen was known as an average defensive catcher.

Bruce Sutter was no doubt relieved to get the save after his prior performance.

Dodgers at Braves

Bruce Froemming, to whom I dedicated several posts last year in his final year of umpiring. was behind the plate for the first time during the 1978 season. To put his career in perspective, this was already his 1.128th game, and his 282nd behind the plate. Dodgers won. Get used to it.

Royals at Indians

The Royals look like they are going to run. U.L. Washington stole 3 bases in this game, and Wilson added another. That's two games, and six steals. Whitey Herzog manages. Royals win.

Blue Jays at Tigers

Willie Upshaw made his major league debut as a pinch hitter for John Mayberry, who had just come over from the Royals 5 days ago. Upshaw went 1-for-2, .

Garth Iorg debuted as well. His brother Dane debuted with Philadelphia on the exact same day the year before. Together the brothers would play 18 years in the majors.

Cale Iorg plays A+ ball in Lakeland (Tigers), Eli Iorg plays AA ball in Corpus Christi (Astros) and Isaac Iorg played in the Braves and Blue Jays minor league systems, wrapping up his career in 2004. Cale may be a prospect, or may not be, depending on how much baseball skill he lost during a two year Mormon mission.

Orioles at Brewers

The Brewers are still scoring runs in bunches, behind Cecil Cooper's 4 RBI. They chase Scott McGregor in the 4th inning, burdening him with 10 earned runs. Needless to say, McGregor is not the early season leader in ERA. He is, however, a talented pitcher, and his season-ending ERA will show it.

If you are keeping track (unlikely), the Brewers have now scored 40 runs in three games. I wonder if the Yankees are excited about facing them in the next series. Baltimore's pitching staff isn't exactly a pushover.

Red Sox at White Sox

Two teams named Sox. Two complete games. Boston's from the Spaceman Bill Lee was a shutout. The other from White Sox 37-year-old Wilbur Wood. Jim Rice homered. He's gonna have a good year.

Twins at Mariners

Smalley (MIN) and Bochte (SEA) each homer. Those are your MLB leaders in home runs.

Yankees at Rangers

Ed Figueroa went the distance and gave up only one run, and managed to strike out only two. But that's not why I'm mentioning the game.

Willie Randolph went 2-for-5 and stole a base. Fast forwarding 30 years, he needs some good news this week.

***

Brewers, Reds and Dodgers have yet to lose. Astros, Braves and Orioles have yet to win. One of those teams is out of place.

Friday, June 20, 2008

San Diego Padres Power

After 11 games, I did a post about the Padres power outage. The team was averaging fewer than 2 extra base hits in those games. My conclusion was that the Padres were struggling because they hadn't played many games outside Petco and because the sample size was too small.

Through yesterday's games, the Pads had played 74 games, 38 at home and 36 on the road. They now have 199 extra base hits, or 2.7 per game. At home, they are averaging 2.6 per game, and on the road, 2.8. So the home/road and sample size explanations hold up.

One other thing was in the original post...a table showing the Padres were hitting up the middle and to the opposite field more frequently, which tends to reduce slugging percentages. Here's the original chart.

Pull Middle OppField
2008 22% 57% 21%
05-07 28% 54% 18%


Now here's the chart with updated figures:

Pull Middle OppField
2008 36% 47% 17%
05-07 28% 54% 18%


That's an incredible shift. Not only has the pull percentage gone up, it has skyrocketed above the 05-07 averages. The opposite field percentage has regressed to the mean, but the team is hitting less to the middle and more to the pull side.

Monday, June 16, 2008

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 16, 2008

Pitching predictions were all over the place, but overall not too bad. Anytime half of the predictions are B or better, I feel pretty good. Big game predictor wasn't much help, though the BA is respectable and the R and RBI figures are high. W-L predictor was useless.


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Jurrjens (ATL) 5.0 5 0 2 5 2 46% 22%
7.2 8 0 2 7 0 Grade: D+ (stud bonus)
Jimenez (COL) 5.0 5 0 3 4 2 15% 18%
5.0 4 0 5 7 2 Grade: A
--------------------------------------------------
Colon (BOS) 5.2 6 1 2 5 3 27% 37%
4.0 6 3 2 4 4 Grade: B- (bomb bonus)
Hamels (PHI) 6.1 6 1 2 6 2 18% 13%
7.0 7 2 2 5 2 Grade: B+
--------------------------------------------------
Verlander(DET) 6.1 7 0 2 6 2 40% 25%
6.0 5 1 1 7 2 Grade: A-
Lincecum (SFG) 6.1 6 0 2 6 2 19% 16%
7.0 5 2 3 3 4 Grade: C+
--------------------------------------------------
Miller (FLA) 5.1 6 0 2 3 2 36% 28%
7.0 6 0 2 2 1 Grade: B+ (stud bonus)
Silva (SEA) 5.2 8 1 1 3 3 13% 24%
4.2 5 0 1 4 3 Grade: B
--------------------------------------------------
Pelfrey (NYM) 5.2 8 0 3 3 3 31% 38%
6.0 6 0 1 0 3 Grade: A-
Weaver (LAA) 5.2 6 0 2 3 2 18% 12%
6.1 8 2 1 5 6 Grade: D+ (bomb penalty)

Big Games: .261, 3R, 5RBI

Game Winners: 2-3

Predict-a-Matic: June 16, 2008

Only five games on the schedule, so I did all five.


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Jurrjens (ATL) 5.0 5 0 2 5 2 46% 22%
Jimenez (COL) 5.0 5 0 3 4 2 15% 18%
Colon (BOS) 5.2 6 1 2 5 3 27% 37%
Hamels (PHI) 6.1 6 1 2 6 2 18% 13%
Verlander(DET) 6.1 7 0 2 6 2 40% 25%
Saunders (SFG) 6.1 6 0 2 6 2 19% 16%
Miller (FLA) 5.1 6 0 2 3 2 36% 28%
Silva (SEA) 5.2 8 1 1 3 3 13% 24%
Pelfrey (NYM) 5.2 8 0 3 3 3 31% 38%
Weaver (LAA) 5.2 6 0 2 3 2 18% 12%
Big Games: C.Jones, Teixeira, Utley, Burrell, C.Ross, Uggla

Game Winners: Atlanta, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Seattle (tossup), Angels

Sunday, June 15, 2008

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 15, 2008

A very good day all around for the Predict-A-Matic. The six A grades are a record. The blemishes were an even worse performance from Homer Bailey than expected (though not all that surprising), and Micah Owings getting smashed by the Royals, despite a low bomb%.

The Big Games predictor rebounded, for a .342 average, 14 runs, 16 RBI and 5 homers. The power numbers remain above average, and the BA was obviously top notch.

The WL predictor also fared well, at 7-4, for a .636 percentage.

Overall grade: B+


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Gabbard (TEX) 4.1 5 0 3 3 2 35% 31%
5.2 8 0 3 4 4 Grade: C+ (bomb bonus)
Martinez (NYM) 6.0 6 0 1 6 2 26% 7%
6.0 6 0 1 4 1 Grade: A
--------------------------------------------------
Millwood (TEX) 5.1 7 0 2 4 2 33% 33%
6.0 5 2 4 5 2 Grade: B
Maine (NYM) 6.0 5 1 2 7 2 18% 13%
6.1 7 1 0 5 5 Grade: B-
--------------------------------------------------
Campillo (ATL) 7.1 7 1 2 6 3 30% 39%
8.0 7 1 0 7 2 Grade: A (stud bonus)
Saunders (LAA) 6.0 6 1 2 4 2 14% 20%
7.1 6 0 0 3 0 Grade: C (stud penalty)
--------------------------------------------------
Beckett (BOS) 6.2 6 1 1 9 2 42% 22%
7.0 6 0 2 6 0 Grade: B+(stud bonus)
Bailey (CIN) 4.2 5 0 3 3 2 15% 21%
2.1 4 3 3 0 5 Grade: F
--------------------------------------------------
Lilly (CHC) 6.0 6 1 2 5 2 37% 25%
6.0 1 0 5 6 0 Grade: B-(stud bonus)
Litsch (TOR) 5.2 6 1 1 3 2 16% 22%
6.1 8 0 1 2 5 Grade: C+
--------------------------------------------------
Meche (KCR) 6.0 6 1 2 6 3 33% 34%
7.1 4 0 1 10 3 Grade: B (stud bonus)
Owings (ARI) 6.0 6 0 1 5 2 19% 13%
5.1 8 1 2 4 7 Grade: D (bomb penalty)
--------------------------------------------------
Kershaw (LAD) 4.2 5 1 3 5 3 32% 36%
4.0 2 0 2 2 0 Grade: C
Robertson(DET) 6.0 7 0 2 4 2 16% 18%
6.0 4 0 0 3 0 Grade: B
--------------------------------------------------
Baker (MIN) 6.0 6 1 1 6 3 31% 35%
6.0 7 1 2 9 3 Grade: A
McClung (MIL) 6.1 5 0 2 5 2 21% 21%
6.0 4 1 0 4 2 Grade: A
--------------------------------------------------
Eveland (OAK) 5.2 5 0 3 4 2 47% 19%
6.2 6 0 3 5 1 Grade: B+
Correia (SFG) 6.1 7 1 3 6 3 15% 25%
5.1 7 0 2 4 5 Grade: B-
--------------------------------------------------
Maholm (PIT) 5.2 7 1 2 4 3 23% 42%
6.0 4 2 3 4 2 Grade: B+
Cabrera (BAL) 6.0 6 1 3 4 3 10% 30%
6.0 6 1 5 2 4 Grade: A
--------------------------------------------------
Maddux (SDP) 5.2 6 0 1 3 2 41% 24%
6.0 8 1 0 2 2 Grade: A
Sabathia (CLE) 6.2 7 1 1 6 2 16% 15%
8.0 6 0 1 10 3 Grade: C+

Big Games: .342, 5HR, 14R, 16RBI

Game Winners: 7-4

Predict-a-Matic: June 15, 2008

Ten games today, plus the postponed game from yesterday


Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Gabbard (TEX) 4.1 5 0 3 3 2 35% 31%
Martinez (NYM) 6.0 6 0 1 6 2 26% 7%
Millwood (TEX) 5.1 7 0 2 4 2 33% 33%
Maine (NYM) 6.0 5 1 2 7 2 18% 13%
Campillo (ATL) 7.1 7 1 2 6 3 30% 39%
Saunders (LAA) 6.0 6 1 2 4 2 14% 20%
Beckett (BOS) 6.2 6 1 1 9 2 42% 22%
Bailey (CIN) 4.2 5 0 3 3 2 15% 21%
Lilly (CHC) 6.0 6 1 2 5 2 37% 25%
Litsch (TOR) 5.2 6 1 1 3 2 16% 22%
Meche (KCR) 6.0 6 1 2 6 3 33% 34%
Owings (ARI) 6.0 6 0 1 5 2 19% 13%
Kershaw (LAD) 4.2 5 1 3 5 3 32% 36%
Robertson(DET) 6.0 7 0 2 4 2 16% 18%
Baker (MIN) 6.0 6 1 1 6 3 31% 35%
McClung (MIL) 6.1 5 0 2 5 2 21% 21%
Eveland (OAK) 5.2 5 0 3 4 2 47% 19%
Correia (SFG) 6.1 7 1 3 6 3 15% 25%
Maholm (PIT) 5.2 7 1 2 4 3 23% 42%
Cabrera (BAL) 6.0 6 1 3 4 3 10% 30%
Maddux (SDP) 5.2 6 0 1 3 2 41% 24%
Sabathia (CLE) 6.2 7 1 1 6 2 16% 15%


Big Games: Beltran (gm1 & gm2), Delgado (gm2), C.Jones, Teixeira, Lowell, M.Ramirez, Fukudome, A.Ramirez, Tracy, Kent, Cabrera, Thames, C.Guillen, Branyan, Fielder, Braun, Cust, Chavez, McLouth, Doumit, Millar, Scott, R.Hernandez

Game Winners: Mets (gm1), Mets (gm2), Atlanta, Boston, Cubs (tossup), Arizona, Detroit, Milwaukee, Oakland (tossup), Baltimore, Cleveland

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 14, 2008

Pitching grades are pretty good. This is the first time I've used a "system" for the grades. Before I assigned grades based on how accurate I felt the predictions were. Now I use an objective method.

There is still a subjective element, however. If the pitcher gave a stud performance and his stud% was high, I give myself extra credit for predicting the possibility of a stud performance. Likewise if the pitcher bombed and his bomb% was high. In this case, I'd say the percentages have to be 28% or more to get the bonus. I'm not sure that's the "right" cutoff, but it isn't exactly scientific.

Conversely, if a pitcher gave a stud performance and his stud% was very low, I should be docked a grade for not realizing the stud possibility. Likewise for a pitcher who bombs when his bomb% was low. On the low side, I'd say the percentages have to be about 14% or lower.

The Big Games predictions were pretty bad -- not unexpected, since predicting four ABs out of an entire season's worth is pretty much impossible. The power numbers were pretty good. The batting average was horrible.

And the W-L predictor was also bad. Pure randomness could have gotten me to .500.

A C- for the whole day, I think.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Wakefield (BOS) 5.2 6 1 2 5 2 31% 32%
7.0 4 2 2 6 2 Grade: B+ (stud bonus)
Volquez (CIN) 6.0 5 0 3 8 2 24% 12%
7.0 7 0 1 9 2 Grade: B+
--------------------------------------------------
Marquis (CHC) 5.2 6 0 2 3 2 38% 31%
7.0 4 0 2 1 1 Grade: B (stud bonus)
Halladay (TOR) 7.1 7 0 1 5 2 17% 14%
5.0 7 1 1 5 2 Grade: B-
--------------------------------------------------
de laRosa(COL) 5.1 7 1 2 4 3 20% 46%
5.0 1 0 1 8 0 Grade: D+
Danks (CHW) 5.1 6 1 2 5 3 15% 18%
6.0 5 0 1 6 0 Grade: C+
--------------------------------------------------
Hendrickson(FLA)6.0 7 1 2 4 3 29% 33%
5.0 4 1 3 6 3 Grade: B
Garza (TBR) 5.1 6 0 2 5 2 15% 19%
7.0 3 0 1 3 1 Grade: C
--------------------------------------------------
Penny (LAD) 6.0 7 0 2 4 2 35% 28%
3.2 7 2 2 0 7 Grade: D (bomb bonus)
Bonine (DET) 6.0 7 0 1 2 2 20% 15%
(rookie debut) 5.1 9 1 0 2 6 Grade: C
--------------------------------------------------
Perkins (MIN) 6.2 8 1 3 6 4 13% 62%
6.0 8 1 1 6 3 Grade: A-
Suppan (MIL) 6.1 7 0 2 3 2 20% 15%
7.0 7 0 1 5 2 Grade: A
--------------------------------------------------
Mussina (NYY) 5.1 7 0 1 3 2 40% 24%
6.0 6 1 0 4 3 Grade: B+
Rodriquez(HOU) 5.2 6 1 2 5 2 19% 14%
5.0 6 1 3 1 5 Grade: C+ (bomb penalty)
--------------------------------------------------
Eaton (PHI) 5.1 6 1 3 3 3 33% 33%
6.2 9 1 1 2 3 Grade: B-
Lohse (STL) 5.2 6 1 2 4 2 15% 16%
8.0 4 1 2 3 2 Grade: C+
--------------------------------------------------
Gabbard (TEX) (ppd)
Martinez (NYM) (ppd)

Big Games: .226, 12R, 12RBI, 6HR

Game Winners: 4-4

Saturday, June 14, 2008

Predict-a-Matic: June 14, 2008

After the poor showing of the Predict-A-Matic the other day, I was torn between trying to tweak the system and simply accepting that calculating an average performance over 1,000 games is never going to predict the exact stats for the game.

I compromised. I reduced the sims to 500 games, which makes them a little less stable. That makes them more "guessy" but also allows for more outlying performances to be a factor. It's almost like adding a degree of randomness. I also decided to go with the median performance weighted at 80%, with Top 10% and Bottom 10% performances weighted in.

And finally, I changed the last two columns to Stud% and Bomb% to give an idea how likely it is the performance will vary widely.
Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Wakefield (BOS) 5.2 6 1 2 5 2 31% 32%
Volquez (CIN) 6.0 5 0 3 8 2 24% 12%
Marquis (CHC) 5.2 6 0 2 3 2 38% 31%
Halladay (TOR) 7.1 7 0 1 5 2 17% 14%
de laRosa(COL) 5.1 7 1 2 4 3 20% 46%
Danks (CHW) 5.1 6 1 2 5 3 15% 18%
Hendrickson(FLA)6.0 7 1 2 4 3 29% 33%
Garza (TBR) 5.1 6 0 2 5 2 15% 19%
Penny (LAD) 6.0 7 0 2 4 2 35% 28%
Bonine (DET) 6.0 7 0 1 2 2 20% 15%
(rookie debut alert)
Perkins (MIN) 6.2 8 1 3 6 4 13% 62%
Suppan (MIL) 6.1 7 0 2 3 2 20% 15%
Mussina (NYY) 5.1 7 0 1 3 2 40% 24%
Rodriquez(HOU) 5.2 6 1 2 5 2 19% 14%
Eaton (PHI) 5.1 6 1 3 3 3 33% 33%
Lohse (STL) 5.2 6 1 2 4 2 15% 16%
Gabbard (TEX) 4.1 5 0 3 3 2 35% 31%
Martinez (NYM) 6.0 6 0 1 6 2 26% 7%


Big Games: Dunn, Votto, Griffey, Stairs, Holliday, Hawpe, Spilborghs, Konerko, Dye, Swisher, C.Ross, Cantu, H.Ramirez, Longoria, Kent, Morneau, Branyan,Braun, Fielder, A-Rod,Lee, Berkman, Burrell, Duncan, Glaus, Ludwick, Beltran

Game Winners: Cincinnati, Toronto, Colorado, Tampa Bay (toss-up), Detroit, Milwaukee, Houston, St. Louis, Mets

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 11, 2008

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER 4+Runs 5+Runs
Webb (ARI) 7.0 7 0 2 5 2 21% 12%
5.0 5 0 0 4 3 Grade: C
Pelfrey (NYM) 6.2 6 0 3 4 3 29% 17%
8.0 5 0 2 8 1 Grade: C

Vazquez (CHW) 6.2 6 1 1 7 2 26% 12%
6.0 10 1 3 9 5 Grade: C
Verlander (DET) 6.1 6 1 2 5 3 33% 20%
9.0 4 0 0 3 1 Grade: D

Billingsley(LAD)6.2 6 - 2 6 2 20% 11%
7.0 8 2 1 3 4 Grade: B-
Wolf (SDP) 6.1 6 0 1 5 2 14% 7%
7.0 4 1 1 9 1 Grade: B

Rasner (NYY) 5.0 5 0 1 3 2 21% 11%
3.2 9 0 1 4 6 Grade: D
Duchscherer(OAK)6.1 6 0 2 4 2 27% 14%
7.0 5 1 1 4 1 Grade: B+

Kazmir (TBR) 6.1 6 0 2 6 2 22% 13%
6.2 6 1 3 10 3 Grade: B+
Lackey (LAA)) 6.2 6 0 2 6 2 24% 14%
7.1 4 0 2 7 2 Grade: A-

Lincecum (SFG) 6.1 5 0 3 8 2 18% 10%
7.0 6 0 3 9 0 Grade: B
Jimenez (COL) 5.2 5 0 2 5 2 20% 12%
7.0 4 0 1 3 0 Grade: C+

Jurrjens (ATL) 5.1 6 0 2 4 2 24% 13%
DNP-Injury
Dempster (CHC) 7.0 6 0 4 5 3 31% 18%
9.0 4 1 0 11 2 Grade: D

Blackburn(MIN) 6.1 8 1 1 4 4 49% 32%
6.0 7 1 1 5 2 Grade: B+
Byrd (CLE) 6.0 7 1 1 3 3 32% 19%
3.0 6 1 1 0 5 Grade: D

Padilla (TEX) 5.2 7 0 2 4 3 37% 23%
6.0 7 1 3 2 4 Grade: A-
Davies (KCR) 5.0 6 1 3 3 3 32% 20%
6.0 6 0 5 3 1 Grade: B-



Big Games:

Conor Jackson (2-6)
Jim Thome (0-3)
Teixeira (0-4)
McCann (0-2)
Morneau (2-5, 1R, 3RBI)
Kubel (3-4, 1R, 2RBI, 1HR)
Sizemore (2-5, 1R, 3RBI, 1HR)
Garko (0-3)
Peralta (0-3)
Delucci (skeptical) (0-3, 1R)
Hamilton (3-6, 1R, 1RBI)
Bradley (skeptical) (0-3, 1R)
Catalanotto (0-2)
Guillen (3-5)
Buck (skeptical) (0-4)

Game Winners: Arizona, White Sox, San Diego, Oakland, Angels, Giants (but toss-up), Cubs, Cleveland, Rangers (but toss-up)
(5-4)

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Predict-a-Matic: June 11, 2008

Having made some refinements to my in-season game simulator, I'm going to test the results for the first time this year. The refinements really fall into two categories: First, a smoothing, taking into account the numbers this year AND last year. This is particularly important early in the season to mitigate small sample sizes. Second, after reading The Book, by Tango, Dolphin and Lichtmann, I realized I was putting too much stock in platoon splits. Now, to obtain the threshold PAs necessary to observe the splits, I use career splits instead of current year. Both of these changes could be considered "smoothing" of the data.

I'm only going to do 9 of the games, mostly because I'm pressed for time. I'm not just being selective. These happen to be the 9 games that have the most fantasy impact for my teams.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER 4+Runs 5+Runs
Webb (ARI) 7.0 7 0 2 5 2 21% 12%
Pelfrey (NYM) 6.2 6 0 3 4 3 29% 17%

Vazquez (CHW) 6.2 6 1 1 7 2 26% 12%
Verlander (DET) 6.1 6 1 2 5 3 33% 20%

Billingsley(LAD)6.2 6 - 2 6 2 20% 11%
Wolf (SDP) 6.1 6 0 1 5 2 14% 7%

Rasner (NYY) 5.0 5 0 1 3 2 21% 11%
Duchscherer(OAK)6.1 6 0 2 4 2 27% 14%

Kazmir (TBR) 6.1 6 0 2 6 2 22% 13%
Lackey (LAA)) 6.2 6 - 2 6 2 24% 14%

Lincecum (SFG) 6.1 5 0 3 8 2 18% 10%
Jimenez (COL) 5.2 5 0 2 5 2 20% 12%

Jurrjens (ATL) 5.1 6 0 2 4 2 24% 13%
Dempster (CHC) 7.0 6 0 4 5 3 31% 18%

Blackburn(MIN) 6.1 8 1 1 4 4 49% 32%
Byrd (CLE) 6.0 7 1 1 3 3 32% 19%

Padilla (TEX) 5.2 7 0 2 4 3 37% 23%
Davies (KCR) 5.0 6 1 3 3 3 32% 20%



Big Games:

Conor Jackson
Jim Thome
Teixeira
McCann
Morneau
Kubel
Sizemore
Garko
Peralta
Delucci (skeptical)
Hamilton
Bradley (skeptical)
Catalanotto
Guillen
Buck (skeptical)

Game Winners: Arizona, White Sox, San Diego, Oakland, Angels, Giants (but toss-up), Cubs, Cleveland, Rangers (but toss-up)

April 8, 1978

Three days after opening day, and four teams have yet to play a game. That will be remedied today (Saturday), with Kansas City at Cleveland, and the Yankees at Texas. Games of note:

Kansas City at Cleveland

It might be hard for anyone to remember, but the Royals were a good team in the late '70s/early '80s. In 1977 they had run away with the AL West, winning 102 games and finishing 8 games ahead of the Rangers. Cleveland lived at the other end of the spectrum, winning only 71 games in 1977.

Despite those 102 wins, the Royals had actually upgraded for 1977. They brought back most of the infield (George Brett, Fred Patek and Frank White), outfield (Amos Otis and Al Cowens), catcher (Darrell Porter) and DH (Hal McRae). Otis happens to be one of the best players most people today have forgotten or never heard of.

In left field, however, they would be sporting a speedy Willie Wilson instead of the forgettable Tom Poquette -- no, he's not the voice of Motel 6. That's Tom Bodett. At first base, they replaced an underperforming John Mayberry with the slightly better Pete LaCock. They "sold" Mayberry to the Blue Jays 2 days before the 1978 season started.

They also retained Dennis Leonard, Paul Splittorff and Andy Hassler in the starting rotation, but moved Larry Gura from the bullpen to start 26 games and brought up Rich Gale. And, instead of closing with the less-than-stellar Doug Bird, they'd have the Mad Hungarian, Al Hrabosky, who they obtained in a trade with the Cardinals for Mark Littell and future broadcaster Buck Martinez.

The Royals sported three of the strangest names in baseball, with Splittorff, LaCock (French for "rooster") and Joe Zdeb. "Zdeb's dead baby, Zdeb's dead."

As good as the Royals' lineup looked, the Indians' looked bad. Andre Thornton, Buddy Bell and an aging Rico Carty were the highlights. The lowlights were Frank Duffy (SS), Paul Dade (RF), Duane Kuiper (2b), and Fred Kendall (C), whose greatest accomplishment was siring Jason Kendall. Cleveland's pitching was a combination of talent and scrub. Wayne Garland, a 22-year-old Dennis Eckersley and Jim Bibby had anchored the rotation, but they were followed by Al Fitzmorris and Pat Dobson (past his prime). Similarly, the bullpen had Jim Kern closing and Don Hood setting up, but Sid Monge and Tom Buskey had little to add. They also switched managers mid-season, from Frank Robinson to Jeff Torborg, with no visible improvement.

What was on tap for 1978? Worse. Shorstop, center field and left field continued to be a problem. Gary Alexander improved their bat (but not the glove) at catcher, and Johnny Grubb added a stick to LF. Wayne Garland would get hurt and start only 6 games. None of the other 1977 starters had even one start. That's right: Garland, Eck, Bibby, Fitzmorris and Dobson made 139 starts for Cleveland in 1977, and made 6 in 1978.

Instead, they sported Rick Waits, Rick Wise (actually pretty good, but a down year), Mike Paxton, David Clyde (the #1 pick who was a total bust), Don Hood (setup man the year before) and Dave Freisleben. Well, at least Kern was still closing.

Despite having arguably the best pitching staff in the league in 1977, the Royals gave up 8 runs to Cleveland on this day. The Royals #1 starter, Dennis Leonard, did not make it out of the fifth inning -- no thanks to the left side of the infield, where Brett and Patek each made an error. Brett's error on a grounder by Larvell Blanks in the first inning opened the door to three unearned runs.

Lilliputian Freddie Patek went 2-for-3 with 3 RBI and a rare HR (he hit 55 of them in 14 years). McRae also homered, as did Pruitt and Thornton for the Indians.

Yankees at Texas

New York had won the pennant again in 1977, though they eked it out by 2.5 games against the Orioles and the Red Sox. Sure they won 100 games, but they had two teams nipping at their heels as they collectively beat up on bad teams in Detroit, Cleveland, Milwaukee and Toronto. New York tied with Kansas City for the fewest runs allowed.

The Yankees had one of their great teams in 1977, and returned almost all of them for 1978. This lineup is burned in my memory: Thurman Munson, Chris Chambliss, Willie Randolph, Graig Nettles, Bucky Dent, Roy White, Mickey Rivers, Reggie Jackson and Lou Piniella. The starters had been Ed Figueroa, Mike Torrez, Ron Guidry, Don Gullett and Catfish Hunter. Torrez left in the off-season for Boston, replaced by Jim Beattie. Gullett would be hurt in '78, but Dick Tidrow was moved from the bullpen to start in his place. In '77 Sparky Lyle closed, with Tidrow setting up. In '77, Goose Gossage closed with Lyle setting up. Wow!

Texas, never a good team before (or after) 1977, had won 94 games. Too bad Kansas City rolled over the AL West. The Rangers managed to score a goodly number of runs with Jim Sundberg (C), Mike Hargrove (1b), Bump Wills (2b), Toby Harrah (3b) and Willie Horton (DH). They got solid pitching from Doyle Alexander, Gaylord Perry Bert Blyleven and Dock Ellis. The bullpen was strong, but unspectacular. There was potential for gain.

They added Al Oliver to play left, and he would be their best hitter. Bobby Bonds to play right (but not until May, when he was traded for Claudell Washington and and Rusty Torres). Richie Zisk was added at DH. Unfortunately, Sundberg and Harrah dipped back to league average, and Bump Wills became below average. Not to mention Bert Campaneris hitting .186/.245/.238. That's an OPS of 483, with a slugging percentage LOWER than the on-base percentage and isolated power of .052. Likewise, Alexander and Ellis returned to earth. Jon Matlack was a quality #1 starter, and they added Fergie Jenkins too. So the pitching staff got better, but the hitters would score 75 fewer runs.

Today's game was a tight one. Matlack went the distance, giving up only one run. Guidry went seven innings, doing the same, but Gossage gave up a homer in the bottom of the ninth to Richie Zisk to give the Rangers the 2-1 victory.

Oakland at California

Carney Lansford debuted as a pinch hitter and flied out against the team he would play for soon enough. For the A's, Dwayne Murphy debuted as a defensive replacement in LF...curious, since he became such a good center fielder. Oakland won 4-2.

Baltimore at Milwaukee

Molitor, on the heels of his debut, went 3-for-6 with 2 runs scored and 5 RBI. Milwaukee pounded out 15 hits and scored 16 runs, including a grand slam from Gorman Thomas, and Larry Hisle's second HR of the young season. Dennis Martinez got no one out, as he was pulled after five batters, five hits and five runs. The Orioles also made five errors resulting in five unearned runs. Moose Haas, meanwhile, cruised to the complete game victory. Attendance was a meager 6,470...no, I didn't leave out a number. In Cleveland, there were 52,000.

Minnesota at Seattle

Rod Carew went 3-for-4. Is that even news? He also drove in three. Paul Thomodsgard threw a complete game three hitter for the Twins. Hmmm. I wonder if he is of Scandanavian extraction?

St. Louis at Philadelphia

First shutout of the young season for the Phils, courtesy of Larry Christenson. The Phils gave him seven runs of support. Or did they? Actually, Christenson himself went 2-for-3 and drove in four of the seven runs, including adding a HR. He had hit 3 HR the prior year, with double figure RBI totals. Alas, the four RBI in his first start of 1978 were the only four he would have all year. He would manage two more hits for the season, though.

Cubs at Pirates

Cubs pitchers managed to walk 10 hitters, and still push the game to extra innings. Sutter, pitching in the bottom of the 10th, gave up a double to Steve Brye, intentionally walked Stargell, unintentionally walked Ott to load the bases, and then walked Jim Fregosi for the winning Pirate run. That's got to be one of the worst Sutter performances of his career.


Los Angeles at Atlanta


Dodger juggernaut. 15 hits, but only 6 runs. Reggie Smith was 3-for-5 with three runs, two ribbies and a homer. Steve Yeager had three hits. That didn't happen often. Tommy John got the win. Fat Tub of Goo got the save.

Montreal at Mets

The Expos middle infield (Cash and Speier) went a combined 7-for-10 with three runs and two RBI. The Expos only scored five, in part because Cash and Speier were six hitters apart on the lineup card. Andre Dawson stole two bases...bet you can't remember a day when Dawson was a base stealer, since we watched his gimpy knees for years on WGN. The Mets won in the bottom of the ninth when pinch hitter Ed Kranepool hit a two run jack off Stan Bahnsen.

San Diego at San Francisco

Jim Barr went the distance for the Giants and got the shutout. Didn't walk anyone. Struck out only 1. Poor George Hendrick.

Monday, June 02, 2008

Jeter Loafing?

Never thought I'd wonder if Jeter is loafing (or just not concentrating)...until tonight's game at the Metrodome.

With the Yanks leading 4-2 in the 6th, two outs and a man on first and third, Craig Monroe came to the plate against Andy Pettitte. He hit a chopper over Pettitte's head, to the left of second, but out of Jeter's reach, which isn't really saying much. I like Jeter, but he doesn't have any range. Cano comes out of nowhere, crosses to the SS side of the bag, and fields the grounder. Cano tosses it to Jeter and Jeter is nowhere near the bag. He flails at it with his foot, and the runner is safe. Run scores.

Cano's toss wasn't beautiful, but it was adequate. The problem is that Jeter was out of position. He wasn't standing at 2b, where he should have been. When he saw that he couldn't reach the chopper, he gave up on it. In his defense, he probably did not expect Cano to be closer to a ball on the SS-side of the bag, when the shortstop himself couldn't get it. Still, it is Little League 101 that you run to the base if you can't field it. Jeter gave up on it, and then just sort of watched Cano field it. He was surprised by the throw, and when he got it, realized he couldn't find the bag.

Later, with the score tied, Jeter hit a sharp single to right field. He slowed a little bit coming around first, and then watching the play in RF, decided to head for second. He was gunned down at the bag. The broadcast team said "he was thinking double all the way" but that simply is not true. He let up around first, and then decided to kick it into gear. That let up cost him the double, because it was a pretty close play.

Maybe he wasn't loafing. Maybe he simply wasn't concentrating. They were mental errors too. Apart from slowing up around first, it was a mental error to try for second at all. The Twins have Michael Cuddyer in right field, with a cannon. He had 19 assists last year, which led the major leagues.

Jeter must not be alone. You don't get 19 assists unless people try to run on you. That makes me wonder if Cuddyer is good at baiting the runners into seeking the extra base. Maybe that "bait" is what Jeter saw as he slowed up at first; then he took the bait and tried for second. He was, after all, looking at right field the entire time. He saw something that indicated he should run, and it wasn't a bobble.

Friday, May 30, 2008

April 7, 1978

Opening day games for most teams, including the postponements from the day before. Games of note below.

Montreal at New York Mets

In a game featuring the two teams who finished at the bottom of the NL East in 1977, Jerry Koosman pitched a gem. Koosman pitched all 9, giving up a single run and striking out 7, driving a Mets 3-1 win. Koosman had lost 20 games in 1977, but had actually been above average. The problem is that the Mets support him with 3.28 runs per game, while the league average is 4.40.

The Expos have an intriguing lineup, featuring Gary Carter and Tony Perez in the infield, and a talented outfield of Warren Cromartie, Ellis Valentine and Andre Dawson.

St. Louis at Philadelphia

The Phillies won 101 games in 1977 on the way to winning the NL East. They opened 1978 with their ace -- a true Hall of Fame ace -- Steve Carlton. Carlton was off, though, and managed only 3 innings, surrendering 10 hits and achieving only 3 strikeouts.

The Cards had been decent, but not great in 1977. They had talented hitters in Lou Brock, Keith Hernandez, Ted Simmons and Garry Templeton, but the remainder of the lineup was weak. All four were back for 1978, with the addition of a talented George Hendrick in the outfield. The rotation remained anchored by Ken Forsch (today's starter) and John Denny, and Pete Vuckovich had come over in a trade from the Blue Jays. The Cards gave up pitchers Tom Underwood and Victor Cruz, both of whom were relatively unknown but decent pitchers.

Three years later Vuckovich will be packaged with Simmons and Rollie Fingers and shipped to the Brewers for Sixto Lezcano, David Green, Lary Sorensen and Dave LaPoint in a blockbuster trade. He cleans up for Bob Forsch on this opening day 5-1 win for the Cardinals.

Chicago at Pittsburgh

The Cubbies were a .500 team in 1977. They had some talented position players in Bill Buckner, Manny Trillo and Bobby Murcer, but not enough of them. The starters were a fairly talented group: Ray Burris, the underappreciated Rick Reuschel, Bill Bonham, Steve Renko and Mike Krukow, with Bruce Sutter closing AND Willie Hernandez and Donnie Moore setting up. Before long, Hernandez and Moore would be good closers for other teams.

The 1978 lineup added slugger Dave Kingman and the starting rotation added talented Dennis Lamp to replace Bonham, who was traded to the Reds for 38-year-old starter Woodie Fryman and reliever Bill Caudill.

Pittsburgh had finished second to their Pennsylvania rivals in 1977, having won 96 games. It's easy to see why. The lineup features Willie Stargell, Dave Parker and Al Oliver, the first of whom is in the hall of fame, and the other two are near misses. There was also a strong supporting cast in Rennie Stennett (2b), Phil Garner (3b) and Bill Robinson (1b). A similar lineup would drive the Pirates to a world championship in 1979. The relief corps in 1977 featured not only closer Goose Gossage, but also Kent Tekulve and Terry Forster. When Forster was with the Dodgers, David Letterman constantly referred to him as a "fat tub of goo." The starting rotation was John Candelaria, Jerry Reuss, Bruce Kison and Jim Rooker, four guys with talent, even if if does not always manifest itself.

Unfortunately for the Pirates, the 1978 lineup will not contain Oliver, and they were unable to replace his bat. He was traded in a huge trade involving four teams, that looked like this:

Oliver and Nelson Norman to the Rangers
Willie Montanez (Braves) to the Mets
Adrian Devine, Tommy Boggs and Eddie Miller (Rangers) to the Braves
Ken Henderson and Tom Grieve (Rangers) to the Mets
Bert Blyleven (Rangers) to the Pirates
Jon Matlack (Mets) to the Rangers
John Milner (Mets) to the Pirates

Long and short, Pittsburgh lost Oliver and a bad shortstop and got Bert Blyleven and John Milner. Sounds like a good deal to me, and maybe it would have been, but Milner managed only 295 at bats. Still, adding Blyleven to a pretty talented pitching staff would have had Pittsburgh hopeful that they'd get over the hump.

Today they threw Candelaria, who pitched a complete game 1-0 victory, outdueling Rick Reuschel. Ivan DeJesus had 3 of the game's 10 hits.

Los Angeles at Atlanta

Best in the West against the worst. Hard to remember for many of you, but the Braves were regularly doormats, and in 1977 had a team ERA nearly half a run higher than the next-to-worst team. There weren't any pitching upgrades on tap for 1978, but the lineup promised to be stronger, with rookie Dale Murphy added to the mix with Jeff Burroughs and Gary ("Sarge") Matthews.

This would be Bobby Cox' first year at the helm, having taken over for a trio of managers in 1977, one of whom was the owner, Ted Turner. Cox would be fired in 1981, in favor of Joe Torre, but I'd say his comeback was pretty strong.

By contrast the Dodgers have the best pitching, and good hitting. The rotation is Hall of Famer Don Sutton, near HoFer Tommy John, Burt Hooten, Rick Rhoden and Doug Rau, with Charlie Hough closing. No, I'm not kidding. Charlie Hough, the guy you watched as an old man throwing knuckleballs for the Rangers, was the Dodgers closer. And he was pretty good. All returned for 1978, and they got even better, adding a young Bob Welch.

The hitting doesn't need an upgrade: Steve Garvey, Davey Lopes, Bill Russell, Ron Cey, Dusty Baker, Ron Monday and Reggie Smith. Hard to beat that lineup, even though it does not contain a single Hall of Famer. Smith is the closest to that caliber, followed by Garvey. But they are all good. And they are all returning, although Monday will split time in center field with Billy North when he arrives from Oakland in mid-May.

This one goes the way you might expect, with the Dodgers thrashing the Braves 13-4. Lopes homered and had 4 RBI. Monday had 4 hits, a homer and 4 RBI. Sutton got the win. Phil Niekro's knuckler must not have been working. The "fat tub of goo" got the save for the Dodgers.

San Diego at San Francisco

This game featured two below average teams from 1977. The Giants still had McCovey, and some other real good hitters in batting title Bill Madlock, Darrell Evans and Jack Clark. They still don't score many runs. The pitching staff was entirely forgettable, though a young Bob Knepper would go on to have a nice career for the Astros.

The Giants outfield would improve with a young Larry Herndon and Terry Whitfield in 1978, though Herndon's best years were still to come. Vida Blue was added to the rotation.

The Padres featured youngster Dave Winfield, George Hendrick and former A's backstop Gene Tenace in 1977. They also couldn't score, but the pitching was even worse. They had 1976 Cy Young winner Randy Jones (runner up in 1975), but he was not the same pitcher. At least Rollie Fingers was in the bullpen.

Roger Craig took over in 1978 as manager of the Padres, which bodes well for the pitching staff. They add Gaylord Perry (age 39) to the rotation. This year also marks the debut of Ozzie Smith at shortstop and they signed free agent Oscar Gamble, who had probably the best afro I've ever seen on a baseball card.

Winfield helps the Padres win this one 3-2, with a homer in the 8th off of Gary Lavelle. The Padres pinch hit for Ozzie Smith after just one at bat.

Oakland at California

Both teams were bad in 1977, but the game is notable because California will turn things around in 1978 with a ton of lineup changes. The pitching in '77 was good, with Nolan Ryan and Frank Tanana anchoring things. The lineup was pretty awful. They had Don Baylor and Bobby Bonds, but that's about it.

In 1978, Ryan and Tanana return, but there's a big difference in the lineup. Talented Lyman Bostock comes over to play right field, allowing Baylor to DH. Brian Downing takes over at catcher. Near Hall of Famer Bobby Grich came over from the Orioles. Carney Lansford debuts at 3b. And a young Ken Landreaux sees a lot of playing time. That lineup will mature in 1979 (with the addition of Rod Carew) and turn things around for the Angels.

Oakland had no hitters in 1977 worth mentioning, and only Vida Blue was notable on the pitching staff. They do nothing to improve in 1978. Blue moved to the Giants. Their best pitcher is Matt Keough. Their best hitter is Mitchell Page. Yeah.

Oakland loses the opener 1-0, as Frank Tanana strikes out 8 in a complete game victory for the Angels.

Boston at Chicago White Sox

Boston was good in 1977, with 97 wins. Unfortunately, that was good for third place(!). Carlton Fisk, George Scott, Carl Yastrzemski, Fred Lynn, Jim Rice and Dwight Evans -- you bet they could score runs. The starters included Luis Tiant, Fergie Jenkins, Bill Lee, and some others. Pretty solid. More of the same in 1978, except no Fergie Jenkins. Instead, Mike Torrez and Dennis Eckersley would start a combined 71 games.

The White Sox won 90 games in 1977, with a group of good-not-great hitters: Brian Downing, Richie Zisk, Chet Lemon, Ralph Garr and Jorge Orta. The pitching staff had been the weak spot. Actually, the worst thing about the White Sox were the uniforms. This was the softball uniform era for the ChiSox. Pullover jerseys, short pants and high black socks. Ah, the memories.

The wheels will come off in 1978, as the White Sox will win 19 fewer games. They are moving in the opposite direction of the Angels, who in 1978 acquired Downing. The pitching did not improve.

The White beats the Red 6-5 on this particular occasion, thanks to a Ron Blomberg homer and Wayne Nordgagen double in the 9th, against Dick Drago and Bill Campbell respectively. That makes up for three White Sox errors.

Toronto at Detroit

The makeup for the previous day's postponement. Detroit debuts the keystone combo of Alan Trammell and Sweet Lou Whitaker (though they played a few games in September 1977). The talented Ron LeFlore returns in center field. Mark Fidrych (he who talks to the ball) is on the wane, and Jack Morris is on the rise. Toronto's best upgrades were the aforementioned additions of Tom Underwood and Victor Cruz from the St. Louis trade. Needless to say, that's not enough.

Detroit wins 6-2, as Fidrych pitches a complete game gem. These are 9 of Fidrych's 22 innings on the season, but they are good ones. Platoon third baseman Phil Mankowski has the best day of his career with the key home run and 3 RBI. Whitaker and Trammell each get a hit.

Baltimore at Milwaukee

The Orioles strength in 1977 was pitching, with Jim Palmer, Rudy May, Ross Grimsley, Mike Flanagan, Tippy Martinez, Dennis Martinez and Scott McGregor. Everyone but Grimsley returns in '78, but he will not be missed. The lineup gets better in 1978, although there are few personnel changes. Eddie Murray solidifies 1b, Doug Decinces matures, and Ken Singleton mashes in RF.

Milwaukee has added Larry Hisle and Gorman Thomas to the outfield, significant upgrades with the bat. Yount starts his sophomore season, and Paul Molitor debuts. Don't forget that Cecil Cooper is still at 1b. They are going to score runs in 1978. A lot of runs...165 to be exact, and they will win a whopping 26 games more than in 1977. This is a different team. There aren't many upgrades to the pitching staff, but in 1977 they averaged 24 years old. They mature in 1978.

The home opener is a preview of all of this, as Milwaukee wins 11-3, sending Mike Flanagan to the showers before the third inning. Sixto Lezcano, talented in his own right, drives in 4 runs. Molitor, subbing for Yount at shortstop, gets the first of his 3,319 hits in the bottom of the second.

You think this is a lot of runs for Milwaukee. Tune in on April 8!

Thursday, May 29, 2008

April 6, 1978

The second day of the season featured a light schedule: the second game of the Twins/Mariners series, the Orioles at the Brewers, the Blue Jays at the Tigers, and the Astros at the Reds.

Twins/Mariners

The Twins got three hits apiece from Roy Smalley and Rod Carew, on the way to a 5-4 victory. Roger Erickson got the win in his 21-year-old debut. As mentioned in the opening day post, Mike Marshall was a Twin in 1978, but he was holding out as a free agent. He didn't actually sign with the Twins until May 15. Accordingly, last year's closer, Tom Johnson, got the save with 2 2/3 innings of work.

Dick Pole got the shaft (sorry, I couldn't resist). He lasted only 1 2/3 innings, giving up 7 hits and 4 earned runs.

Orioles/Brewers

Baltimore finished 2d in the East in 1977, with a solid 97 wins. Sorry, no wild card back then. The Brewers finished next to last, barely above expansion Toronto. The Brew Crew couldn't score runs, and that produced a 67 win season.

The game apparently was postponed until the next day.

Jays/Tigers

The Tigers played .500 ball in 1977, but the matchup with the Blue Jays was hardly interesting. The Jays won 57 games in 1977, finishing last in hitting and next-to-last in pitching.

The game apparently was postponed until the next day.

Astros/Reds

This was the most interesting matchup of the day, these two teams having finished 3d and 2d, respectively in the NL West the prior year.

The Reds still had the personnel from the Big Red Machine, with Pete Rose, Ken Griffey, Joe Morgan, George Foster, Johnny Bench, Dave Concepcion and Cesar Geronimo, with Dan Driessen having taken over for Tony Perez at 1b in 1977. Ray Knight was waiting for his moment when Rose left the Reds. The Reds had won 88 games with that lineup.

The pitching had gone south, though. Other than Fred Norman and the outstanding Tom Seaver, their rotation in 1977 was weak: Jack Billingham, Paul Moskau, Doug Capilla and, you get the picture. Mario Soto pitched as a starter, and he would be a key contributor to the Reds later, but he was not too good at age 20. The Reds did have a solid closer in Pedro Borbon, but Doug Bair would get most of the save opportunities in '78.

The rotation returned in 1978, but they added a couple of young arms in Tom Hume and Mike LaCoss, both of whom had decent major league careers.

Houston was a .500 team in 1977. They didn't score many runs, but didn't allow many either. They were built for the expansive features of the Astrodome, with J.R. Richard, Mark Lemongello (fun to say aloud), Joaquin Andujar, and Joe Niekro getting most of the starts, and a bullpen of Ken Forsch, Joe Sambito and some other decent performers. That same group, with Vern Ruhle thrown in the mix, returned for 1978, but nearly all of them saw their performances dip.

The lineup was essentially the same too: Joe Ferguson, Bob Watson, Art Howe, Enos Cabell, Terry Puhl and Jose Cruz returned. Cesar Cedeno did too, but had injury problems that forced Puhl from LF to CF, and called Denny Walling into service. Rafael Landestoy was the new SS, taking over for the very light hitting Roger Metzger.

Of note, this team also included Bruce Bochy, who went on to a substantial managerial career, and Jeff "Penitentiary Face" Leonard in a cup of coffee.

Their opening day game was a slugfest, won by Cincinnati 11-9. J.R. Richard got pounded in 4 2/3 innings, giving up 7 earned runs. He did strike out 8, but that doesn't matter if you give up nearly 3 hits and 1 walk every inning. The Reds ended up with 16 hits, only one of them a HR (Joe Morgan). Morgan was a fantasy beast, even though fantasy baseball didn't exist then. How about this line: 3-for-4, 3 runs scored, 5 RBI, 1 HR, 2 doubles and a stolen base?

Seaver started for the Reds, and was just as bad, lasting only 3 innings and giving up 5 earned runs. Houston spread their hits up and down the order, but Jose Cruz was 3-for-5 with 2 RBI. Puhl, Cedeno and Ferguson all homered off of Seaver. After Cedeno's homer in the 4th, the game was stopped for a 38 minute rain delay. Seaver came back from the delay and gave up a double, single and home run to the first three batters, before Sparky Anderson removed him.

No wonder. The 4th inning rain delay was the third (!) rain delay of the game. The game had also been stopped for a little more than a 1/2 hour in both the second and third innings. Easy to see why the aces had trouble.

With two postponements and a third game delayed three times, the weather in the midwest must have been awful. It was in the mid-30s in Milwaukee and Detroit on that day (courtesy of NOAA historical weather data archives).

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

1978: Opening Day

The season opened on April 5, with a somewhat unusual game: Minnesota at Seattle. It was only Seattle's second year in the league, and in their first year, they were as awful as expansion franchises used to be: 64-98...and they did NOT finish last. Minnesota had actually been decent the year before, finishing 17.5 games back, but with a record 7 games over .500.

Minnesota

Minnesota had a different look to start the 1978 season. Lyman Bostock, who hit a robust .336 in 1977, with 14 HR, 102 R, 90 RBI and 16 SB, had become a free agent at the end of the '77 season. At age 27, he was in his prime. The California Angels quickly signed him.

Bostock had mostly manned CF, with some games in LF. Dan Ford, the regular right fielder in 1977, moved to center field in 1978. It's interesting that Ford would become a free agent at the end of 1978, and would sign with California to replace Bostock, who was killed in September 1978 in a shooting incident.

Hosken Powell, a 25 year old first round draft pick (3d overall in 1975) was brought up to play right field. He would manage only an 84 OPS+, compared to Bostock's 144 in 1977 and 113 in 1978. Left field was to be manned by Willie Norwood, a backup to Larry Hisle in 1977. Hisle took his own 144 OPS+ to Milwaukee via free agency.

Bostock mostly led off, but also hit cleanup at times...an unusual situation. Hisle mostly hit cleanup, but he moved all over the order, including leadoff, 3d, 5th and 6th. In any event, they were key parts of the team. Powell would start the season as the leadoff man, but Norwood would be down in the 8 spot. The rest of the lineup remained stable.

Minnesota's pitching, ranked 12th out of 14 teams in 1977, lost Pete Redfern from the starting rotation (bumping him to the bullpen), but replaced him with 21 year old Roger Erickson -- no relation to the later Twin Scott Erickson. Roger had been drafted in the 3d round...the year before!

Minnesota had a strong closer in 1977 (the unknown Tom Johnson), but the rest of the bullpen was horrible. Johnson had to pitch 146 innings, all in relief. He was replaced in 1978 by Mike Marshall, a star reliever who regularly threw more than 100 IP a year. Johnson threw only 33 innings in 1978, and was mostly ineffective.

As for defense, Minnesota ranked 10th out of 14 teams in 1977 and did nothing to improve -- and in fact, lost ground in center field, where Bostock had good range and Ford did not.

Seattle

The Mariners had been 10th in the league in runs scored in 1977, with a pretty forgettable lineup. Danny Meyer had a decent year at 1b, with 22 HR and 90 RBI, but a weak OPS. Ruppert Jones, who would have a good major league career thereafter, was an above average hitter in CF, and cranked 24 homers, which would turn out to be his career high. Leroy Stanton, whose baseball card I cannot even picture, was the team stud with 27 HR and 90 RBIs.

The rest of the hitting was pretty bad, particularly at DH where the combination of Juan Bernhardt and Dave Collins managed an OPS+ of around 65. At least Collins was a rabbit on the bases. Same situation at 2b, where Jose Baez and Julio Cruz produced an OPS+ of about 75, but Cruz was a big time base stealer. They also suffered with Craig Reynolds' bat at SS. Reynolds would play 15 years, mostly with Houston, but only had one worse year at the plate than 1977.

In 1978, the lineup would be much the same. Bruce Bochte, a pretty good hitter, took over in left for Steve Braun. Leon Roberts took over in RF for Stanton, and Stanton moved to DH. That would seem to be a hitting upgrade, except Stanton fell apart. He went from a 130 OPS+ in 1977 to an atrocious 46 (!!) in 330+ plate appearances. He never played again. Bochte would fill in often at DH, with Tom Paciorek playing LF on those days. Paciorek, of course, went on to be a well-known broadcaster with the White Sox, as Hawk Harrelson's partner on WGN.

But it's opening day, and the changes look positive in the lineup on this day. Their opening day lineup would stay the same for four games, and then Darrell Johnson would abandon it, never to return to that lineup for the final 158 games.

As you might expect on an expansion team, the pitching in 1977 was awful, finishing last in the league. Except for a good closer in Enrique Romo, nearly every pitcher was substandard, and the rotation was uniformly bad. How's this for a rotation: Paul Abbott (had both hands), Dick Pole (great name, now a pitching coach for the Reds), Gary Wheelock, Rick Jones, Paul Mitchell (not the shampoo), Stan Thomas and Bob Galasso. They did get three starts from a young Rick Honeycutt, who went on to a nice career with the Dodgers and as Eck's setup man in Oakland.

So, with plenty of room for improvement, the Mariners did almost nothing to improve. Honeycutt would be a regular starter in 1978, and so would Byron McLaughlin. They did not pitch well, though. Abbott, Pole and Mitchell returned, with the same results, and they threw in Jim Colborn (now a pitching coach for the Pirates). Headed for last in ERA again.

Seattle's defensive efficiency was average in 1977, so with relatively few changes to the lineup, the same could be expected in 1978. Doesn't turn out that way, but hey, we don't know that yet.

Opening Day Game

Oh yeah, that. Well, not much happened. Seattle won 3-2, in a pitching duel between Dave Goltz (Min) and Glenn Abbott (Sea). Goltz threw a complete game. Abbott only went 6 1/2, but the closer Romo went 2 2/3 innings -- yeah, closers were different then -- for the save.

Probably the two weakest hitters in the game, Rob Wilfong at 2b for Minnesota, and Craig Reynolds at SS for Seattle had the best games. Wilfong was 2-for-3 and Reynolds was 3-for-4 with two RBI and a homer. Hosken Powell was 1-for-4 in his major league debut.


1978

My memory may be faulty, but I think 1978 may have been my favorite season as a kid. I was the right age to understand everything going on in baseball (age 12), the Dodgers had finally solidified their suppression of the Big Red Machine, and the Kansas City Royals were actually a good team. This latter fact was important, because in Jacksonville, Florida, the AA Jacksonville Suns were a Royals affiliate.

It was also the peak of my baseball card collecting, an important activity in 1978. If you didn't have a local MLB team, you saw baseball twice a week, at best: the Saturday Game of the Week on NBC, and the occasional Monday Night Baseball. Those games normally featured the Yankees, Red Sox, Reds and Dodgers, but in 1978 you got some Phillies, Pirates and Royals games too.

But that's only 7 teams. If you wanted to know what a player on one of the other teams looked like, you pretty much had to look at baseball cards. At that time, cards were not valuable and we had no inkling they would be some day. We just used them as our only access to what players and teams looked like.

I'm feeling old, because that was 30 years ago. I thought it might be fun to look back at the box scores, day-by-day, and see what the season might look like in hindsight. At 12 and without much television, I don't have many memories of specific plays or games, so it's almost like I'll be looking at the games cold.

Monday, May 12, 2008

Bad Trades

Watching the Reds-Marlins game, and researching where some of the players began their careers, revealed a couple of awful trades:

1. The Expos traded all-star Grady Sizemore, pitcher Cliff Lee (who looks like Cy Young) and Brandon Phillips of the Reds, for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew.

Colon pitched well for Montreal in the second half. He was then traded with Jorge Nunez to the ChiSox, for Rocky Biddle, El Duque, Jeff Liefer and cash.

Okay, so that means: Sizemore + Lee + Phillips = Drew + Biddle + Liefer + El Duque + cash. Yeah, that MLB-Montreal thing worked great!

2. The Rangers traded Aaron Harang with Ryan Cullen to the A's for Randy Velarde. Uh, I'd say they didn't think much of Harang as a prospect, since at the time of the trade, Velarde was a 38-year-old utilityman.

Oakland turned Harang into Jeff Bruksch and Joe Valentine three years later. Safe to say Harang was not developing like they thought?

So at 25-years old, some genius in Cincinnati said "I think Harang is worth more than Velarde + Bruksch + Valentine." And for once, I'm not using "genius" in a facetious manner.

BTW, did you realize Harang is 6'7" and 245 pounds. Wow. To put that in perspective, Jason Taylor, the defensive end for the Miami Dolphins, goes 6'6" 255!

Monday, May 05, 2008

Dodger Broadcasts

I don't think there's a better baseball experience than listening or watching a Dodgers telecast. Vin Scully solos on radio for three innings, and then switches to tv for the middle three, before moving back. Charlie Steiner and Rick Monday do t.v. and then radio. It helps that the Dodgers have an exciting young team.

There's so much experience on the broacast crew. To a young listener, the broadcasters are probably a little corny, and not hip enough. But they are classic baseball old school broadcasts. It's worth listening to a Dodger game on radio, even when t.v. is available.

The camera crew is experienced too. Tonight was a good example.

Blake DeWitt hit his first major league home run. The camera was poised in the dugout to capture this:

DeWitt enters the dugout taking off his helmet. His teammates do not meet him at the steps. They are uniformly sitting on the bench, looking out at the ball field, as if nothing happened. DeWitt is like a man on an island. DeWitt puts his bat in the rack. He sort of hangs his head. Can't decide what to do with the helmet. Then, when he decides to take it off, the Dodger bench explodes towards him, patting him on the back, hugging him, wrestling him around, etc. The silent treatment, and then the celebration for a kid's first MLB homer. Then the fans gave him a curtain call.

That's a great baseball moment...the kind of thing that made you want to play as a kid, and made me read box scores every morning. And good broadcasting to know that was coming.

Rose's 3,000th Hit

Today is the 30th anniversary of Pete Rose's 3,000 hit, on the way to becoming baseball's all-time hit leader.

They showed some video of the hit tonight on ESPN. He hit it off Steve Rogers of the Expos, a name pretty much forgotten today, but one of the very good pitchers of the 1970s and early 1980s. Rogers made the All-Star team four times, was runner up for ROY in 1973, and finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting three different times -- including a second place finish to Steve Carlton in 1982.

It was a road game, so no celebration: There wasn't a lot of fanfare/Nor were there many fans there/It was Montreal/After all.

Anyway, whereas now they would stop the game and celebrate, even in a road park, there was virtually nothing to mark the event. No teammates congratulating him. No opponents congratulating him. This was no Mark McGwire moment with Sosa hugging him (which I personally found disgusting).

But most interesting of all, Tony Perez, Rose's teammate on the Big Red Machine, was playing first base for Montreal. Rose trotted down to first and stood there. And so did Perez. Stand there. Ready for the next pitch. No congratulations. Just standing there. After a couple of minutes of both of them just standing there, Rose reached over and patted Perez' chest, and gave him the half-hug, with Perez sort of returning the half-hug...call it a quarter-hug.

I think the lack of general celebration is a product of the times. I think the lack of Perez' celebration is something deeper, like maybe Rose was always an asshole? Maybe? Not exactly far-fetched.