April 9, 1978

All of the individual opening days having occurred, the teams could begin to settle into the idea of the long season, and getting off to a hot start.

Expos at Mets

Notable only because it was a scheduled Sunday doubleheader, something you just don't see anymore, thanks to the MLB Players Association. The teams split. Expos pitcher Wayne Twitchell managed to walk five batters in the first 1.1 innings of game 1, before being pulled. Ross Grimsley pitched a shutout for the Expos in game 2.

Another sign of the times? Gary Carter caught both ends of the doubleheader. All 18 innings.

Cubs at Pirates

Cubs won this game 4-3, but something else caught my eye. Bill Buckner stole two bases in this game. Not exactly remembered for his speed and agility, thanks largely to his time in Boston when his knees were shot. He stole both off the battery of Jerry Reuss and Manny Sanguillen. I don't know anything about Reuss' pickoff move, but I know he was a lefty, which tends to suppress steals of second. Not a junkballer either. The James/Neyer Guide to Pitchers says he threw mostly fastballs, and quotes Steve Yeager as saying he might throw as many as 5 curveballs a game. Sanguillen was known as an average defensive catcher.

Bruce Sutter was no doubt relieved to get the save after his prior performance.

Dodgers at Braves

Bruce Froemming, to whom I dedicated several posts last year in his final year of umpiring. was behind the plate for the first time during the 1978 season. To put his career in perspective, this was already his 1.128th game, and his 282nd behind the plate. Dodgers won. Get used to it.

Royals at Indians

The Royals look like they are going to run. U.L. Washington stole 3 bases in this game, and Wilson added another. That's two games, and six steals. Whitey Herzog manages. Royals win.

Blue Jays at Tigers

Willie Upshaw made his major league debut as a pinch hitter for John Mayberry, who had just come over from the Royals 5 days ago. Upshaw went 1-for-2, .

Garth Iorg debuted as well. His brother Dane debuted with Philadelphia on the exact same day the year before. Together the brothers would play 18 years in the majors.

Cale Iorg plays A+ ball in Lakeland (Tigers), Eli Iorg plays AA ball in Corpus Christi (Astros) and Isaac Iorg played in the Braves and Blue Jays minor league systems, wrapping up his career in 2004. Cale may be a prospect, or may not be, depending on how much baseball skill he lost during a two year Mormon mission.

Orioles at Brewers

The Brewers are still scoring runs in bunches, behind Cecil Cooper's 4 RBI. They chase Scott McGregor in the 4th inning, burdening him with 10 earned runs. Needless to say, McGregor is not the early season leader in ERA. He is, however, a talented pitcher, and his season-ending ERA will show it.

If you are keeping track (unlikely), the Brewers have now scored 40 runs in three games. I wonder if the Yankees are excited about facing them in the next series. Baltimore's pitching staff isn't exactly a pushover.

Red Sox at White Sox

Two teams named Sox. Two complete games. Boston's from the Spaceman Bill Lee was a shutout. The other from White Sox 37-year-old Wilbur Wood. Jim Rice homered. He's gonna have a good year.

Twins at Mariners

Smalley (MIN) and Bochte (SEA) each homer. Those are your MLB leaders in home runs.

Yankees at Rangers

Ed Figueroa went the distance and gave up only one run, and managed to strike out only two. But that's not why I'm mentioning the game.

Willie Randolph went 2-for-5 and stole a base. Fast forwarding 30 years, he needs some good news this week.

***

Brewers, Reds and Dodgers have yet to lose. Astros, Braves and Orioles have yet to win. One of those teams is out of place.

San Diego Padres Power

After 11 games, I did a post about the Padres power outage. The team was averaging fewer than 2 extra base hits in those games. My conclusion was that the Padres were struggling because they hadn't played many games outside Petco and because the sample size was too small.

Through yesterday's games, the Pads had played 74 games, 38 at home and 36 on the road. They now have 199 extra base hits, or 2.7 per game. At home, they are averaging 2.6 per game, and on the road, 2.8. So the home/road and sample size explanations hold up.

One other thing was in the original post...a table showing the Padres were hitting up the middle and to the opposite field more frequently, which tends to reduce slugging percentages. Here's the original chart.

     Pull  Middle  OppField
2008    22%    57%       21%
05-07   28%    54%       18%

Now here's the chart with updated figures:

     Pull  Middle  OppField
2008    36%    47%       17%
05-07   28%    54%       18%

That's an incredible shift. Not only has the pull percentage gone up, it has skyrocketed above the 05-07 averages. The opposite field percentage has regressed to the mean, but the team is hitting less to the middle and more to the pull side.

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 16, 2008

Pitching predictions were all over the place, but overall not too bad. Anytime half of the predictions are B or better, I feel pretty good. Big game predictor wasn't much help, though the BA is respectable and the R and RBI figures are high. W-L predictor was useless.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Jurrjens (ATL)  5.0  5   0   2   5   2  46%   22%
                7.2  8   0   2   7   0  Grade: D+ (stud bonus)
Jimenez  (COL)  5.0  5   0   3   4   2  15%   18%
                5.0  4   0   5   7   2  Grade: A
--------------------------------------------------
Colon    (BOS)  5.2  6   1   2   5   3  27%   37%
                4.0  6   3   2   4   4  Grade: B- (bomb bonus)
Hamels   (PHI)  6.1  6   1   2   6   2  18%   13%
                7.0  7   2   2   5   2  Grade: B+
--------------------------------------------------
Verlander(DET)  6.1  7   0   2   6   2  40%   25%
                6.0  5   1   1   7   2  Grade: A-
Lincecum (SFG)  6.1  6   0   2   6   2  19%   16%
                7.0  5   2   3   3   4  Grade: C+
--------------------------------------------------
Miller   (FLA)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  36%   28%
                7.0  6   0   2   2   1  Grade: B+ (stud bonus)
Silva    (SEA)  5.2  8   1   1   3   3  13%   24%
                4.2  5   0   1   4   3  Grade: B
--------------------------------------------------
Pelfrey  (NYM)  5.2  8   0   3   3   3  31%   38%
                6.0  6   0   1   0   3  Grade: A-
Weaver   (LAA)  5.2  6   0   2   3   2  18%   12%
                6.1  8   2   1   5   6  Grade: D+ (bomb penalty)
      

Big Games: .261, 3R, 5RBI

Game Winners: 2-3

Predict-a-Matic: June 16, 2008

Only five games on the schedule, so I did all five.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Jurrjens (ATL)  5.0  5   0   2   5   2  46%   22%
Jimenez  (COL)  5.0  5   0   3   4   2  15%   18%
Colon    (BOS)  5.2  6   1   2   5   3  27%   37%
Hamels   (PHI)  6.1  6   1   2   6   2  18%   13%
Verlander(DET)  6.1  7   0   2   6   2  40%   25%
Saunders (SFG)  6.1  6   0   2   6   2  19%   16%
Miller   (FLA)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  36%   28%
Silva    (SEA)  5.2  8   1   1   3   3  13%   24%
Pelfrey  (NYM)  5.2  8   0   3   3   3  31%   38%
Weaver   (LAA)  5.2  6   0   2   3   2  18%   12%

Big Games: C.Jones, Teixeira, Utley, Burrell, C.Ross, Uggla

Game Winners: Atlanta, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Seattle (tossup), Angels

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 15, 2008

A very good day all around for the Predict-A-Matic. The six A grades are a record. The blemishes were an even worse performance from Homer Bailey than expected (though not all that surprising), and Micah Owings getting smashed by the Royals, despite a low bomb%.

The Big Games predictor rebounded, for a .342 average, 14 runs, 16 RBI and 5 homers. The power numbers remain above average, and the BA was obviously top notch.

The WL predictor also fared well, at 7-4, for a .636 percentage.

Overall grade: B+

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Gabbard  (TEX)  4.1  5   0   3   3   2  35%   31%
                5.2  8   0   3   4   4  Grade: C+ (bomb bonus)
Martinez (NYM)  6.0  6   0   1   6   2  26%    7%
                6.0  6   0   1   4   1  Grade: A
--------------------------------------------------
Millwood (TEX)  5.1  7   0   2   4   2  33%   33%
                6.0  5   2   4   5   2  Grade: B
Maine    (NYM)  6.0  5   1   2   7   2  18%   13%
                6.1  7   1   0   5   5  Grade: B-
--------------------------------------------------
Campillo (ATL)  7.1  7   1   2   6   3  30%   39%
                8.0  7   1   0   7   2  Grade: A (stud bonus)
Saunders (LAA)  6.0  6   1   2   4   2  14%   20%
                7.1  6   0   0   3   0  Grade: C (stud penalty)
--------------------------------------------------
Beckett  (BOS)  6.2  6   1   1   9   2  42%   22%
                7.0  6   0   2   6   0  Grade: B+(stud bonus)             
Bailey   (CIN)  4.2  5   0   3   3   2  15%   21%
                2.1  4   3   3   0   5  Grade: F
--------------------------------------------------
Lilly    (CHC)  6.0  6   1   2   5   2  37%   25%
                6.0  1   0   5   6   0  Grade: B-(stud bonus)
Litsch   (TOR)  5.2  6   1   1   3   2  16%   22%
                6.1  8   0   1   2   5  Grade: C+
--------------------------------------------------
Meche    (KCR)  6.0  6   1   2   6   3  33%   34%
                7.1  4   0   1  10   3  Grade: B (stud bonus)
Owings   (ARI)  6.0  6   0   1   5   2  19%   13%
                5.1  8   1   2   4   7  Grade: D (bomb penalty)
--------------------------------------------------
Kershaw  (LAD)  4.2  5   1   3   5   3  32%   36%
                4.0  2   0   2   2   0  Grade: C
Robertson(DET)  6.0  7   0   2   4   2  16%   18%
                6.0  4   0   0   3   0  Grade: B
--------------------------------------------------
Baker    (MIN)  6.0  6   1   1   6   3  31%   35%
                6.0  7   1   2   9   3  Grade: A
McClung  (MIL)  6.1  5   0   2   5   2  21%   21%
                6.0  4   1   0   4   2  Grade: A
--------------------------------------------------
Eveland  (OAK)  5.2  5   0   3   4   2  47%   19%
                6.2  6   0   3   5   1  Grade: B+
Correia  (SFG)  6.1  7   1   3   6   3  15%   25%
                5.1  7   0   2   4   5  Grade: B-
--------------------------------------------------
Maholm   (PIT)  5.2  7   1   2   4   3  23%   42%
                6.0  4   2   3   4   2  Grade: B+
Cabrera  (BAL)  6.0  6   1   3   4   3  10%   30%
                6.0  6   1   5   2   4  Grade: A
--------------------------------------------------
Maddux   (SDP)  5.2  6   0   1   3   2  41%   24%
                6.0  8   1   0   2   2  Grade: A
Sabathia (CLE)  6.2  7   1   1   6   2  16%   15%
                8.0  6   0   1  10   3  Grade: C+

Big Games: .342, 5HR, 14R, 16RBI

Game Winners: 7-4

Predict-a-Matic: June 15, 2008

Ten games today, plus the postponed game from yesterday

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Gabbard  (TEX)  4.1  5   0   3   3   2  35%   31%
Martinez (NYM)  6.0  6   0   1   6   2  26%    7%
Millwood (TEX)  5.1  7   0   2   4   2  33%   33%
Maine    (NYM)  6.0  5   1   2   7   2  18%   13%
Campillo (ATL)  7.1  7   1   2   6   3  30%   39%
Saunders (LAA)  6.0  6   1   2   4   2  14%   20%
Beckett  (BOS)  6.2  6   1   1   9   2  42%   22%
Bailey   (CIN)  4.2  5   0   3   3   2  15%   21%
Lilly    (CHC)  6.0  6   1   2   5   2  37%   25%
Litsch   (TOR)  5.2  6   1   1   3   2  16%   22%
Meche    (KCR)  6.0  6   1   2   6   3  33%   34%
Owings   (ARI)  6.0  6   0   1   5   2  19%   13%
Kershaw  (LAD)  4.2  5   1   3   5   3  32%   36%
Robertson(DET)  6.0  7   0   2   4   2  16%   18%
Baker    (MIN)  6.0  6   1   1   6   3  31%   35%
McClung  (MIL)  6.1  5   0   2   5   2  21%   21%
Eveland  (OAK)  5.2  5   0   3   4   2  47%   19%
Correia  (SFG)  6.1  7   1   3   6   3  15%   25%
Maholm   (PIT)  5.2  7   1   2   4   3  23%   42%
Cabrera  (BAL)  6.0  6   1   3   4   3  10%   30%
Maddux   (SDP)  5.2  6   0   1   3   2  41%   24%
Sabathia (CLE)  6.2  7   1   1   6   2  16%   15%

Big Games: Beltran (gm1 & gm2), Delgado (gm2), C.Jones, Teixeira, Lowell, M.Ramirez, Fukudome, A.Ramirez, Tracy, Kent, Cabrera, Thames, C.Guillen, Branyan, Fielder, Braun, Cust, Chavez, McLouth, Doumit, Millar, Scott, R.Hernandez

Game Winners: Mets (gm1), Mets (gm2), Atlanta, Boston, Cubs (tossup), Arizona, Detroit, Milwaukee, Oakland (tossup), Baltimore, Cleveland

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 14, 2008

Pitching grades are pretty good. This is the first time I've used a "system" for the grades. Before I assigned grades based on how accurate I felt the predictions were. Now I use an objective method.

There is still a subjective element, however. If the pitcher gave a stud performance and his stud% was high, I give myself extra credit for predicting the possibility of a stud performance. Likewise if the pitcher bombed and his bomb% was high. In this case, I'd say the percentages have to be 28% or more to get the bonus. I'm not sure that's the "right" cutoff, but it isn't exactly scientific.

Conversely, if a pitcher gave a stud performance and his stud% was very low, I should be docked a grade for not realizing the stud possibility. Likewise for a pitcher who bombs when his bomb% was low. On the low side, I'd say the percentages have to be about 14% or lower.

The Big Games predictions were pretty bad -- not unexpected, since predicting four ABs out of an entire season's worth is pretty much impossible. The power numbers were pretty good. The batting average was horrible.

And the W-L predictor was also bad. Pure randomness could have gotten me to .500.

A C- for the whole day, I think.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Wakefield (BOS) 5.2  6   1   2   5   2  31%   32%
                7.0  4   2   2   6   2  Grade: B+ (stud bonus)
Volquez (CIN)   6.0  5   0   3   8   2  24%   12%
                7.0  7   0   1   9   2  Grade: B+
--------------------------------------------------
Marquis  (CHC)  5.2  6   0   2   3   2  38%   31%
                7.0  4   0   2   1   1  Grade: B  (stud bonus)
Halladay (TOR)  7.1  7   0   1   5   2  17%   14%
                5.0  7   1   1   5   2  Grade: B-
--------------------------------------------------
de laRosa(COL)  5.1  7   1   2   4   3  20%   46%
                5.0  1   0   1   8   0  Grade: D+
Danks    (CHW)  5.1  6   1   2   5   3  15%   18%
                6.0  5   0   1   6   0  Grade: C+
--------------------------------------------------
Hendrickson(FLA)6.0  7   1   2   4   3  29%   33%
                5.0  4   1   3   6   3  Grade: B
Garza    (TBR)  5.1  6   0   2   5   2  15%   19%
                7.0  3   0   1   3   1  Grade: C
--------------------------------------------------
Penny    (LAD)  6.0  7   0   2   4   2  35%   28%
                3.2  7   2   2   0   7  Grade: D (bomb bonus)
Bonine   (DET)  6.0  7   0   1   2   2  20%   15%
 (rookie debut) 5.1  9   1   0   2   6  Grade: C
--------------------------------------------------
Perkins  (MIN)  6.2  8   1   3   6   4  13%   62%
                6.0  8   1   1   6   3  Grade: A-
Suppan   (MIL)  6.1  7   0   2   3   2  20%   15%
                7.0  7   0   1   5   2  Grade: A
--------------------------------------------------
Mussina  (NYY)  5.1  7   0   1   3   2  40%   24%
                6.0  6   1   0   4   3  Grade: B+
Rodriquez(HOU)  5.2  6   1   2   5   2  19%   14%
                5.0  6   1   3   1   5  Grade: C+ (bomb penalty)
--------------------------------------------------
Eaton    (PHI)  5.1  6   1   3   3   3  33%   33%
                6.2  9   1   1   2   3  Grade: B-
Lohse    (STL)  5.2  6   1   2   4   2  15%   16%
                8.0  4   1   2   3   2  Grade: C+
--------------------------------------------------
Gabbard  (TEX)  (ppd)
Martinez (NYM)  (ppd)

Big Games: .226, 12R, 12RBI, 6HR

Game Winners: 4-4

Predict-a-Matic: June 14, 2008

After the poor showing of the Predict-A-Matic the other day, I was torn between trying to tweak the system and simply accepting that calculating an average performance over 1,000 games is never going to predict the exact stats for the game.

I compromised. I reduced the sims to 500 games, which makes them a little less stable. That makes them more "guessy" but also allows for more outlying performances to be a factor. It's almost like adding a degree of randomness. I also decided to go with the median performance weighted at 80%, with Top 10% and Bottom 10% performances weighted in.

And finally, I changed the last two columns to Stud% and Bomb% to give an idea how likely it is the performance will vary widely.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Wakefield (BOS) 5.2  6   1   2   5   2  31%   32%
Volquez  (CIN)  6.0  5   0   3   8   2  24%   12%
Marquis  (CHC)  5.2  6   0   2   3   2  38%   31%
Halladay (TOR)  7.1  7   0   1   5   2  17%   14%
de laRosa(COL)  5.1  7   1   2   4   3  20%   46%
Danks    (CHW)  5.1  6   1   2   5   3  15%   18%
Hendrickson(FLA)6.0  7   1   2   4   3  29%   33%
Garza    (TBR)  5.1  6   0   2   5   2  15%   19%
Penny    (LAD)  6.0  7   0   2   4   2  35%   28%
Bonine   (DET)  6.0  7   0   1   2   2  20%   15%
         (rookie debut alert)
Perkins  (MIN)  6.2  8   1   3   6   4  13%   62%
Suppan   (MIL)  6.1  7   0   2   3   2  20%   15%
Mussina  (NYY)  5.1  7   0   1   3   2  40%   24%
Rodriquez(HOU)  5.2  6   1   2   5   2  19%   14%
Eaton    (PHI)  5.1  6   1   3   3   3  33%   33%
Lohse    (STL)  5.2  6   1   2   4   2  15%   16%
Gabbard  (TEX)  4.1  5   0   3   3   2  35%   31%
Martinez (NYM)  6.0  6   0   1   6   2  26%    7%

Big Games: Dunn, Votto, Griffey, Stairs, Holliday, Hawpe, Spilborghs, Konerko, Dye, Swisher, C.Ross, Cantu, H.Ramirez, Longoria, Kent, Morneau, Branyan,Braun, Fielder, A-Rod,Lee, Berkman, Burrell, Duncan, Glaus, Ludwick, Beltran

Game Winners: Cincinnati, Toronto, Colorado, Tampa Bay (toss-up), Detroit, Milwaukee, Houston, St. Louis, Mets

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 11, 2008

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER 4+Runs 5+Runs
Webb    (ARI)   7.0  7   0   2   5   2  21%    12%
                5.0  5   0   0   4   3  Grade: C
Pelfrey (NYM)   6.2  6   0   3   4   3  29%    17%
                8.0  5   0   2   8   1  Grade: C

Vazquez (CHW)   6.2  6   1   1   7   2  26%    12%
                6.0 10   1   3   9   5  Grade: C
Verlander (DET) 6.1  6   1   2   5   3  33%    20%
                9.0  4   0   0   3   1  Grade: D

Billingsley(LAD)6.2  6   -   2   6   2  20%    11%
                7.0  8   2   1   3   4  Grade: B-
Wolf    (SDP)   6.1  6   0   1   5   2  14%     7%
                7.0  4   1   1   9   1  Grade: B

Rasner  (NYY)   5.0  5   0   1   3   2  21%    11%
                3.2  9   0   1   4   6  Grade: D
Duchscherer(OAK)6.1  6   0   2   4   2  27%    14%
                7.0  5   1   1   4   1  Grade: B+

Kazmir  (TBR)   6.1  6   0   2   6   2  22%    13%
                6.2  6   1   3  10   3  Grade: B+
Lackey  (LAA))  6.2  6   0   2   6   2  24%    14%
                7.1  4   0   2   7   2  Grade: A-

Lincecum (SFG)  6.1  5   0   3   8   2  18%    10%
                7.0  6   0   3   9   0  Grade: B
Jimenez (COL)   5.2  5   0   2   5   2  20%    12%
                7.0  4   0   1   3   0  Grade: C+

Jurrjens (ATL)  5.1  6   0   2   4   2  24%    13%
                DNP-Injury
Dempster (CHC)  7.0  6   0   4   5   3  31%    18%
                9.0  4   1   0  11   2  Grade: D

Blackburn(MIN)  6.1  8   1   1   4   4  49%    32%
                6.0  7   1   1   5   2  Grade: B+
Byrd     (CLE)  6.0  7   1   1   3   3  32%    19%
                3.0  6   1   1   0   5  Grade: D

Padilla (TEX)   5.2  7   0   2   4   3  37%    23%
                6.0  7   1   3   2   4  Grade: A-
Davies  (KCR)   5.0  6   1   3   3   3  32%    20%
                6.0  6   0   5   3   1  Grade: B-

Big Games:

Conor Jackson (2-6)
Jim Thome (0-3)
Teixeira (0-4)
McCann (0-2)
Morneau (2-5, 1R, 3RBI)
Kubel (3-4, 1R, 2RBI, 1HR)
Sizemore (2-5, 1R, 3RBI, 1HR)
Garko (0-3)
Peralta (0-3)
Delucci (skeptical) (0-3, 1R)
Hamilton (3-6, 1R, 1RBI)
Bradley (skeptical) (0-3, 1R)
Catalanotto (0-2)
Guillen (3-5)
Buck (skeptical) (0-4)

Game Winners: Arizona, White Sox, San Diego, Oakland, Angels, Giants (but toss-up), Cubs, Cleveland, Rangers (but toss-up)
(5-4)

Predict-a-Matic: June 11, 2008

Having made some refinements to my in-season game simulator, I'm going to test the results for the first time this year. The refinements really fall into two categories: First, a smoothing, taking into account the numbers this year AND last year. This is particularly important early in the season to mitigate small sample sizes. Second, after reading The Book, by Tango, Dolphin and Lichtmann, I realized I was putting too much stock in platoon splits. Now, to obtain the threshold PAs necessary to observe the splits, I use career splits instead of current year. Both of these changes could be considered "smoothing" of the data.

I'm only going to do 9 of the games, mostly because I'm pressed for time. I'm not just being selective. These happen to be the 9 games that have the most fantasy impact for my teams.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER 4+Runs 5+Runs
Webb    (ARI)   7.0  7   0   2   5   2  21%    12%
Pelfrey (NYM)   6.2  6   0   3   4   3  29%    17%

Vazquez (CHW)   6.2  6   1   1   7   2  26%    12%
Verlander (DET) 6.1  6   1   2   5   3  33%    20%

Billingsley(LAD)6.2  6   -   2   6   2  20%    11%
Wolf    (SDP)   6.1  6   0   1   5   2  14%     7%

Rasner  (NYY)   5.0  5   0   1   3   2  21%    11%
Duchscherer(OAK)6.1  6   0   2   4   2  27%    14%

Kazmir  (TBR)   6.1  6   0   2   6   2  22%    13%
Lackey  (LAA))  6.2  6   -   2   6   2  24%    14%

Lincecum (SFG)  6.1  5   0   3   8   2  18%    10%
Jimenez (COL)   5.2  5   0   2   5   2  20%    12%

Jurrjens (ATL)  5.1  6   0   2   4   2  24%    13%
Dempster (CHC)  7.0  6   0   4   5   3  31%    18%

Blackburn(MIN)  6.1  8   1   1   4   4  49%    32%
Byrd     (CLE)  6.0  7   1   1   3   3  32%    19%

Padilla (TEX)   5.2  7   0   2   4   3  37%    23%
Davies  (KCR)   5.0  6   1   3   3   3  32%    20%

Big Games:

Conor Jackson
Jim Thome
Teixeira
McCann
Morneau
Kubel
Sizemore
Garko
Peralta
Delucci (skeptical)
Hamilton
Bradley (skeptical)
Catalanotto
Guillen
Buck (skeptical)

Game Winners: Arizona, White Sox, San Diego, Oakland, Angels, Giants (but toss-up), Cubs, Cleveland, Rangers (but toss-up)

April 8, 1978

Three days after opening day, and four teams have yet to play a game. That will be remedied today (Saturday), with Kansas City at Cleveland, and the Yankees at Texas. Games of note:

Kansas City at Cleveland

It might be hard for anyone to remember, but the Royals were a good team in the late '70s/early '80s. In 1977 they had run away with the AL West, winning 102 games and finishing 8 games ahead of the Rangers. Cleveland lived at the other end of the spectrum, winning only 71 games in 1977.

Despite those 102 wins, the Royals had actually upgraded for 1977. They brought back most of the infield (George Brett, Fred Patek and Frank White), outfield (Amos Otis and Al Cowens), catcher (Darrell Porter) and DH (Hal McRae). Otis happens to be one of the best players most people today have forgotten or never heard of.

In left field, however, they would be sporting a speedy Willie Wilson instead of the forgettable Tom Poquette -- no, he's not the voice of Motel 6. That's Tom Bodett. At first base, they replaced an underperforming John Mayberry with the slightly better Pete LaCock. They "sold" Mayberry to the Blue Jays 2 days before the 1978 season started.

They also retained Dennis Leonard, Paul Splittorff and Andy Hassler in the starting rotation, but moved Larry Gura from the bullpen to start 26 games and brought up Rich Gale. And, instead of closing with the less-than-stellar Doug Bird, they'd have the Mad Hungarian, Al Hrabosky, who they obtained in a trade with the Cardinals for Mark Littell and future broadcaster Buck Martinez.

The Royals sported three of the strangest names in baseball, with Splittorff, LaCock (French for "rooster") and Joe Zdeb. "Zdeb's dead baby, Zdeb's dead."

As good as the Royals' lineup looked, the Indians' looked bad. Andre Thornton, Buddy Bell and an aging Rico Carty were the highlights. The lowlights were Frank Duffy (SS), Paul Dade (RF), Duane Kuiper (2b), and Fred Kendall (C), whose greatest accomplishment was siring Jason Kendall. Cleveland's pitching was a combination of talent and scrub. Wayne Garland, a 22-year-old Dennis Eckersley and Jim Bibby had anchored the rotation, but they were followed by Al Fitzmorris and Pat Dobson (past his prime). Similarly, the bullpen had Jim Kern closing and Don Hood setting up, but Sid Monge and Tom Buskey had little to add. They also switched managers mid-season, from Frank Robinson to Jeff Torborg, with no visible improvement.

What was on tap for 1978? Worse. Shorstop, center field and left field continued to be a problem. Gary Alexander improved their bat (but not the glove) at catcher, and Johnny Grubb added a stick to LF. Wayne Garland would get hurt and start only 6 games. None of the other 1977 starters had even one start. That's right: Garland, Eck, Bibby, Fitzmorris and Dobson made 139 starts for Cleveland in 1977, and made 6 in 1978.

Instead, they sported Rick Waits, Rick Wise (actually pretty good, but a down year), Mike Paxton, David Clyde (the #1 pick who was a total bust), Don Hood (setup man the year before) and Dave Freisleben. Well, at least Kern was still closing.

Despite having arguably the best pitching staff in the league in 1977, the Royals gave up 8 runs to Cleveland on this day. The Royals #1 starter, Dennis Leonard, did not make it out of the fifth inning -- no thanks to the left side of the infield, where Brett and Patek each made an error. Brett's error on a grounder by Larvell Blanks in the first inning opened the door to three unearned runs.

Lilliputian Freddie Patek went 2-for-3 with 3 RBI and a rare HR (he hit 55 of them in 14 years). McRae also homered, as did Pruitt and Thornton for the Indians.

Yankees at Texas

New York had won the pennant again in 1977, though they eked it out by 2.5 games against the Orioles and the Red Sox. Sure they won 100 games, but they had two teams nipping at their heels as they collectively beat up on bad teams in Detroit, Cleveland, Milwaukee and Toronto. New York tied with Kansas City for the fewest runs allowed.

The Yankees had one of their great teams in 1977, and returned almost all of them for 1978. This lineup is burned in my memory: Thurman Munson, Chris Chambliss, Willie Randolph, Graig Nettles, Bucky Dent, Roy White, Mickey Rivers, Reggie Jackson and Lou Piniella. The starters had been Ed Figueroa, Mike Torrez, Ron Guidry, Don Gullett and Catfish Hunter. Torrez left in the off-season for Boston, replaced by Jim Beattie. Gullett would be hurt in '78, but Dick Tidrow was moved from the bullpen to start in his place. In '77 Sparky Lyle closed, with Tidrow setting up. In '77, Goose Gossage closed with Lyle setting up. Wow!

Texas, never a good team before (or after) 1977, had won 94 games. Too bad Kansas City rolled over the AL West. The Rangers managed to score a goodly number of runs with Jim Sundberg (C), Mike Hargrove (1b), Bump Wills (2b), Toby Harrah (3b) and Willie Horton (DH). They got solid pitching from Doyle Alexander, Gaylord Perry Bert Blyleven and Dock Ellis. The bullpen was strong, but unspectacular. There was potential for gain.

They added Al Oliver to play left, and he would be their best hitter. Bobby Bonds to play right (but not until May, when he was traded for Claudell Washington and and Rusty Torres). Richie Zisk was added at DH. Unfortunately, Sundberg and Harrah dipped back to league average, and Bump Wills became below average. Not to mention Bert Campaneris hitting .186/.245/.238. That's an OPS of 483, with a slugging percentage LOWER than the on-base percentage and isolated power of .052. Likewise, Alexander and Ellis returned to earth. Jon Matlack was a quality #1 starter, and they added Fergie Jenkins too. So the pitching staff got better, but the hitters would score 75 fewer runs.

Today's game was a tight one. Matlack went the distance, giving up only one run. Guidry went seven innings, doing the same, but Gossage gave up a homer in the bottom of the ninth to Richie Zisk to give the Rangers the 2-1 victory.

Oakland at California

Carney Lansford debuted as a pinch hitter and flied out against the team he would play for soon enough. For the A's, Dwayne Murphy debuted as a defensive replacement in LF...curious, since he became such a good center fielder. Oakland won 4-2.

Baltimore at Milwaukee

Molitor, on the heels of his debut, went 3-for-6 with 2 runs scored and 5 RBI. Milwaukee pounded out 15 hits and scored 16 runs, including a grand slam from Gorman Thomas, and Larry Hisle's second HR of the young season. Dennis Martinez got no one out, as he was pulled after five batters, five hits and five runs. The Orioles also made five errors resulting in five unearned runs. Moose Haas, meanwhile, cruised to the complete game victory. Attendance was a meager 6,470...no, I didn't leave out a number. In Cleveland, there were 52,000.

Minnesota at Seattle

Rod Carew went 3-for-4. Is that even news? He also drove in three. Paul Thomodsgard threw a complete game three hitter for the Twins. Hmmm. I wonder if he is of Scandanavian extraction?

St. Louis at Philadelphia

First shutout of the young season for the Phils, courtesy of Larry Christenson. The Phils gave him seven runs of support. Or did they? Actually, Christenson himself went 2-for-3 and drove in four of the seven runs, including adding a HR. He had hit 3 HR the prior year, with double figure RBI totals. Alas, the four RBI in his first start of 1978 were the only four he would have all year. He would manage two more hits for the season, though.

Cubs at Pirates

Cubs pitchers managed to walk 10 hitters, and still push the game to extra innings. Sutter, pitching in the bottom of the 10th, gave up a double to Steve Brye, intentionally walked Stargell, unintentionally walked Ott to load the bases, and then walked Jim Fregosi for the winning Pirate run. That's got to be one of the worst Sutter performances of his career.


Los Angeles at Atlanta

Dodger juggernaut. 15 hits, but only 6 runs. Reggie Smith was 3-for-5 with three runs, two ribbies and a homer. Steve Yeager had three hits. That didn't happen often. Tommy John got the win. Fat Tub of Goo got the save.

Montreal at Mets

The Expos middle infield (Cash and Speier) went a combined 7-for-10 with three runs and two RBI. The Expos only scored five, in part because Cash and Speier were six hitters apart on the lineup card. Andre Dawson stole two bases...bet you can't remember a day when Dawson was a base stealer, since we watched his gimpy knees for years on WGN. The Mets won in the bottom of the ninth when pinch hitter Ed Kranepool hit a two run jack off Stan Bahnsen.

San Diego at San Francisco

Jim Barr went the distance for the Giants and got the shutout. Didn't walk anyone. Struck out only 1. Poor George Hendrick.

Jeter Loafing?

Never thought I'd wonder if Jeter is loafing (or just not concentrating)...until tonight's game at the Metrodome.

With the Yanks leading 4-2 in the 6th, two outs and a man on first and third, Craig Monroe came to the plate against Andy Pettitte. He hit a chopper over Pettitte's head, to the left of second, but out of Jeter's reach, which isn't really saying much. I like Jeter, but he doesn't have any range. Cano comes out of nowhere, crosses to the SS side of the bag, and fields the grounder. Cano tosses it to Jeter and Jeter is nowhere near the bag. He flails at it with his foot, and the runner is safe. Run scores.

Cano's toss wasn't beautiful, but it was adequate. The problem is that Jeter was out of position. He wasn't standing at 2b, where he should have been. When he saw that he couldn't reach the chopper, he gave up on it. In his defense, he probably did not expect Cano to be closer to a ball on the SS-side of the bag, when the shortstop himself couldn't get it. Still, it is Little League 101 that you run to the base if you can't field it. Jeter gave up on it, and then just sort of watched Cano field it. He was surprised by the throw, and when he got it, realized he couldn't find the bag.

Later, with the score tied, Jeter hit a sharp single to right field. He slowed a little bit coming around first, and then watching the play in RF, decided to head for second. He was gunned down at the bag. The broadcast team said "he was thinking double all the way" but that simply is not true. He let up around first, and then decided to kick it into gear. That let up cost him the double, because it was a pretty close play.

Maybe he wasn't loafing. Maybe he simply wasn't concentrating. They were mental errors too. Apart from slowing up around first, it was a mental error to try for second at all. The Twins have Michael Cuddyer in right field, with a cannon. He had 19 assists last year, which led the major leagues.

Jeter must not be alone. You don't get 19 assists unless people try to run on you. That makes me wonder if Cuddyer is good at baiting the runners into seeking the extra base. Maybe that "bait" is what Jeter saw as he slowed up at first; then he took the bait and tried for second. He was, after all, looking at right field the entire time. He saw something that indicated he should run, and it wasn't a bobble.

April 7, 1978

Opening day games for most teams, including the postponements from the day before. Games of note below.

Montreal at New York Mets

In a game featuring the two teams who finished at the bottom of the NL East in 1977, Jerry Koosman pitched a gem. Koosman pitched all 9, giving up a single run and striking out 7, driving a Mets 3-1 win. Koosman had lost 20 games in 1977, but had actually been above average. The problem is that the Mets support him with 3.28 runs per game, while the league average is 4.40.

The Expos have an intriguing lineup, featuring Gary Carter and Tony Perez in the infield, and a talented outfield of Warren Cromartie, Ellis Valentine and Andre Dawson.

St. Louis at Philadelphia

The Phillies won 101 games in 1977 on the way to winning the NL East. They opened 1978 with their ace -- a true Hall of Fame ace -- Steve Carlton. Carlton was off, though, and managed only 3 innings, surrendering 10 hits and achieving only 3 strikeouts.

The Cards had been decent, but not great in 1977. They had talented hitters in Lou Brock, Keith Hernandez, Ted Simmons and Garry Templeton, but the remainder of the lineup was weak. All four were back for 1978, with the addition of a talented George Hendrick in the outfield. The rotation remained anchored by Ken Forsch (today's starter) and John Denny, and Pete Vuckovich had come over in a trade from the Blue Jays. The Cards gave up pitchers Tom Underwood and Victor Cruz, both of whom were relatively unknown but decent pitchers.

Three years later Vuckovich will be packaged with Simmons and Rollie Fingers and shipped to the Brewers for Sixto Lezcano, David Green, Lary Sorensen and Dave LaPoint in a blockbuster trade. He cleans up for Bob Forsch on this opening day 5-1 win for the Cardinals.

Chicago at Pittsburgh

The Cubbies were a .500 team in 1977. They had some talented position players in Bill Buckner, Manny Trillo and Bobby Murcer, but not enough of them. The starters were a fairly talented group: Ray Burris, the underappreciated Rick Reuschel, Bill Bonham, Steve Renko and Mike Krukow, with Bruce Sutter closing AND Willie Hernandez and Donnie Moore setting up. Before long, Hernandez and Moore would be good closers for other teams.

The 1978 lineup added slugger Dave Kingman and the starting rotation added talented Dennis Lamp to replace Bonham, who was traded to the Reds for 38-year-old starter Woodie Fryman and reliever Bill Caudill.

Pittsburgh had finished second to their Pennsylvania rivals in 1977, having won 96 games. It's easy to see why. The lineup features Willie Stargell, Dave Parker and Al Oliver, the first of whom is in the hall of fame, and the other two are near misses. There was also a strong supporting cast in Rennie Stennett (2b), Phil Garner (3b) and Bill Robinson (1b). A similar lineup would drive the Pirates to a world championship in 1979. The relief corps in 1977 featured not only closer Goose Gossage, but also Kent Tekulve and Terry Forster. When Forster was with the Dodgers, David Letterman constantly referred to him as a "fat tub of goo." The starting rotation was John Candelaria, Jerry Reuss, Bruce Kison and Jim Rooker, four guys with talent, even if if does not always manifest itself.

Unfortunately for the Pirates, the 1978 lineup will not contain Oliver, and they were unable to replace his bat. He was traded in a huge trade involving four teams, that looked like this:

Oliver and Nelson Norman to the Rangers
Willie Montanez (Braves) to the Mets
Adrian Devine, Tommy Boggs and Eddie Miller (Rangers) to the Braves
Ken Henderson and Tom Grieve (Rangers) to the Mets
Bert Blyleven (Rangers) to the Pirates
Jon Matlack (Mets) to the Rangers
John Milner (Mets) to the Pirates

Long and short, Pittsburgh lost Oliver and a bad shortstop and got Bert Blyleven and John Milner. Sounds like a good deal to me, and maybe it would have been, but Milner managed only 295 at bats. Still, adding Blyleven to a pretty talented pitching staff would have had Pittsburgh hopeful that they'd get over the hump.

Today they threw Candelaria, who pitched a complete game 1-0 victory, outdueling Rick Reuschel. Ivan DeJesus had 3 of the game's 10 hits.

Los Angeles at Atlanta

Best in the West against the worst. Hard to remember for many of you, but the Braves were regularly doormats, and in 1977 had a team ERA nearly half a run higher than the next-to-worst team. There weren't any pitching upgrades on tap for 1978, but the lineup promised to be stronger, with rookie Dale Murphy added to the mix with Jeff Burroughs and Gary ("Sarge") Matthews.

This would be Bobby Cox' first year at the helm, having taken over for a trio of managers in 1977, one of whom was the owner, Ted Turner. Cox would be fired in 1981, in favor of Joe Torre, but I'd say his comeback was pretty strong.

By contrast the Dodgers have the best pitching, and good hitting. The rotation is Hall of Famer Don Sutton, near HoFer Tommy John, Burt Hooten, Rick Rhoden and Doug Rau, with Charlie Hough closing. No, I'm not kidding. Charlie Hough, the guy you watched as an old man throwing knuckleballs for the Rangers, was the Dodgers closer. And he was pretty good. All returned for 1978, and they got even better, adding a young Bob Welch.

The hitting doesn't need an upgrade: Steve Garvey, Davey Lopes, Bill Russell, Ron Cey, Dusty Baker, Ron Monday and Reggie Smith. Hard to beat that lineup, even though it does not contain a single Hall of Famer. Smith is the closest to that caliber, followed by Garvey. But they are all good. And they are all returning, although Monday will split time in center field with Billy North when he arrives from Oakland in mid-May.

This one goes the way you might expect, with the Dodgers thrashing the Braves 13-4. Lopes homered and had 4 RBI. Monday had 4 hits, a homer and 4 RBI. Sutton got the win. Phil Niekro's knuckler must not have been working. The "fat tub of goo" got the save for the Dodgers.

San Diego at San Francisco

This game featured two below average teams from 1977. The Giants still had McCovey, and some other real good hitters in batting title Bill Madlock, Darrell Evans and Jack Clark. They still don't score many runs. The pitching staff was entirely forgettable, though a young Bob Knepper would go on to have a nice career for the Astros.

The Giants outfield would improve with a young Larry Herndon and Terry Whitfield in 1978, though Herndon's best years were still to come. Vida Blue was added to the rotation.

The Padres featured youngster Dave Winfield, George Hendrick and former A's backstop Gene Tenace in 1977. They also couldn't score, but the pitching was even worse. They had 1976 Cy Young winner Randy Jones (runner up in 1975), but he was not the same pitcher. At least Rollie Fingers was in the bullpen.

Roger Craig took over in 1978 as manager of the Padres, which bodes well for the pitching staff. They add Gaylord Perry (age 39) to the rotation. This year also marks the debut of Ozzie Smith at shortstop and they signed free agent Oscar Gamble, who had probably the best afro I've ever seen on a baseball card.

Winfield helps the Padres win this one 3-2, with a homer in the 8th off of Gary Lavelle. The Padres pinch hit for Ozzie Smith after just one at bat.

Oakland at California

Both teams were bad in 1977, but the game is notable because California will turn things around in 1978 with a ton of lineup changes. The pitching in '77 was good, with Nolan Ryan and Frank Tanana anchoring things. The lineup was pretty awful. They had Don Baylor and Bobby Bonds, but that's about it.

In 1978, Ryan and Tanana return, but there's a big difference in the lineup. Talented Lyman Bostock comes over to play right field, allowing Baylor to DH. Brian Downing takes over at catcher. Near Hall of Famer Bobby Grich came over from the Orioles. Carney Lansford debuts at 3b. And a young Ken Landreaux sees a lot of playing time. That lineup will mature in 1979 (with the addition of Rod Carew) and turn things around for the Angels.

Oakland had no hitters in 1977 worth mentioning, and only Vida Blue was notable on the pitching staff. They do nothing to improve in 1978. Blue moved to the Giants. Their best pitcher is Matt Keough. Their best hitter is Mitchell Page. Yeah.

Oakland loses the opener 1-0, as Frank Tanana strikes out 8 in a complete game victory for the Angels.

Boston at Chicago White Sox

Boston was good in 1977, with 97 wins. Unfortunately, that was good for third place(!). Carlton Fisk, George Scott, Carl Yastrzemski, Fred Lynn, Jim Rice and Dwight Evans -- you bet they could score runs. The starters included Luis Tiant, Fergie Jenkins, Bill Lee, and some others. Pretty solid. More of the same in 1978, except no Fergie Jenkins. Instead, Mike Torrez and Dennis Eckersley would start a combined 71 games.

The White Sox won 90 games in 1977, with a group of good-not-great hitters: Brian Downing, Richie Zisk, Chet Lemon, Ralph Garr and Jorge Orta. The pitching staff had been the weak spot. Actually, the worst thing about the White Sox were the uniforms. This was the softball uniform era for the ChiSox. Pullover jerseys, short pants and high black socks. Ah, the memories.

The wheels will come off in 1978, as the White Sox will win 19 fewer games. They are moving in the opposite direction of the Angels, who in 1978 acquired Downing. The pitching did not improve.

The White beats the Red 6-5 on this particular occasion, thanks to a Ron Blomberg homer and Wayne Nordgagen double in the 9th, against Dick Drago and Bill Campbell respectively. That makes up for three White Sox errors.

Toronto at Detroit

The makeup for the previous day's postponement. Detroit debuts the keystone combo of Alan Trammell and Sweet Lou Whitaker (though they played a few games in September 1977). The talented Ron LeFlore returns in center field. Mark Fidrych (he who talks to the ball) is on the wane, and Jack Morris is on the rise. Toronto's best upgrades were the aforementioned additions of Tom Underwood and Victor Cruz from the St. Louis trade. Needless to say, that's not enough.

Detroit wins 6-2, as Fidrych pitches a complete game gem. These are 9 of Fidrych's 22 innings on the season, but they are good ones. Platoon third baseman Phil Mankowski has the best day of his career with the key home run and 3 RBI. Whitaker and Trammell each get a hit.

Baltimore at Milwaukee

The Orioles strength in 1977 was pitching, with Jim Palmer, Rudy May, Ross Grimsley, Mike Flanagan, Tippy Martinez, Dennis Martinez and Scott McGregor. Everyone but Grimsley returns in '78, but he will not be missed. The lineup gets better in 1978, although there are few personnel changes. Eddie Murray solidifies 1b, Doug Decinces matures, and Ken Singleton mashes in RF.

Milwaukee has added Larry Hisle and Gorman Thomas to the outfield, significant upgrades with the bat. Yount starts his sophomore season, and Paul Molitor debuts. Don't forget that Cecil Cooper is still at 1b. They are going to score runs in 1978. A lot of runs...165 to be exact, and they will win a whopping 26 games more than in 1977. This is a different team. There aren't many upgrades to the pitching staff, but in 1977 they averaged 24 years old. They mature in 1978.

The home opener is a preview of all of this, as Milwaukee wins 11-3, sending Mike Flanagan to the showers before the third inning. Sixto Lezcano, talented in his own right, drives in 4 runs. Molitor, subbing for Yount at shortstop, gets the first of his 3,319 hits in the bottom of the second.

You think this is a lot of runs for Milwaukee. Tune in on April 8!

April 6, 1978

The second day of the season featured a light schedule: the second game of the Twins/Mariners series, the Orioles at the Brewers, the Blue Jays at the Tigers, and the Astros at the Reds.

Twins/Mariners

The Twins got three hits apiece from Roy Smalley and Rod Carew, on the way to a 5-4 victory. Roger Erickson got the win in his 21-year-old debut. As mentioned in the opening day post, Mike Marshall was a Twin in 1978, but he was holding out as a free agent. He didn't actually sign with the Twins until May 15. Accordingly, last year's closer, Tom Johnson, got the save with 2 2/3 innings of work.

Dick Pole got the shaft (sorry, I couldn't resist). He lasted only 1 2/3 innings, giving up 7 hits and 4 earned runs.

Orioles/Brewers

Baltimore finished 2d in the East in 1977, with a solid 97 wins. Sorry, no wild card back then. The Brewers finished next to last, barely above expansion Toronto. The Brew Crew couldn't score runs, and that produced a 67 win season.

The game apparently was postponed until the next day.

Jays/Tigers

The Tigers played .500 ball in 1977, but the matchup with the Blue Jays was hardly interesting. The Jays won 57 games in 1977, finishing last in hitting and next-to-last in pitching.

The game apparently was postponed until the next day.

Astros/Reds

This was the most interesting matchup of the day, these two teams having finished 3d and 2d, respectively in the NL West the prior year.

The Reds still had the personnel from the Big Red Machine, with Pete Rose, Ken Griffey, Joe Morgan, George Foster, Johnny Bench, Dave Concepcion and Cesar Geronimo, with Dan Driessen having taken over for Tony Perez at 1b in 1977. Ray Knight was waiting for his moment when Rose left the Reds. The Reds had won 88 games with that lineup.

The pitching had gone south, though. Other than Fred Norman and the outstanding Tom Seaver, their rotation in 1977 was weak: Jack Billingham, Paul Moskau, Doug Capilla and, you get the picture. Mario Soto pitched as a starter, and he would be a key contributor to the Reds later, but he was not too good at age 20. The Reds did have a solid closer in Pedro Borbon, but Doug Bair would get most of the save opportunities in '78.

The rotation returned in 1978, but they added a couple of young arms in Tom Hume and Mike LaCoss, both of whom had decent major league careers.

Houston was a .500 team in 1977. They didn't score many runs, but didn't allow many either. They were built for the expansive features of the Astrodome, with J.R. Richard, Mark Lemongello (fun to say aloud), Joaquin Andujar, and Joe Niekro getting most of the starts, and a bullpen of Ken Forsch, Joe Sambito and some other decent performers. That same group, with Vern Ruhle thrown in the mix, returned for 1978, but nearly all of them saw their performances dip.

The lineup was essentially the same too: Joe Ferguson, Bob Watson, Art Howe, Enos Cabell, Terry Puhl and Jose Cruz returned. Cesar Cedeno did too, but had injury problems that forced Puhl from LF to CF, and called Denny Walling into service. Rafael Landestoy was the new SS, taking over for the very light hitting Roger Metzger.

Of note, this team also included Bruce Bochy, who went on to a substantial managerial career, and Jeff "Penitentiary Face" Leonard in a cup of coffee.

Their opening day game was a slugfest, won by Cincinnati 11-9. J.R. Richard got pounded in 4 2/3 innings, giving up 7 earned runs. He did strike out 8, but that doesn't matter if you give up nearly 3 hits and 1 walk every inning. The Reds ended up with 16 hits, only one of them a HR (Joe Morgan). Morgan was a fantasy beast, even though fantasy baseball didn't exist then. How about this line: 3-for-4, 3 runs scored, 5 RBI, 1 HR, 2 doubles and a stolen base?

Seaver started for the Reds, and was just as bad, lasting only 3 innings and giving up 5 earned runs. Houston spread their hits up and down the order, but Jose Cruz was 3-for-5 with 2 RBI. Puhl, Cedeno and Ferguson all homered off of Seaver. After Cedeno's homer in the 4th, the game was stopped for a 38 minute rain delay. Seaver came back from the delay and gave up a double, single and home run to the first three batters, before Sparky Anderson removed him.

No wonder. The 4th inning rain delay was the third (!) rain delay of the game. The game had also been stopped for a little more than a 1/2 hour in both the second and third innings. Easy to see why the aces had trouble.

With two postponements and a third game delayed three times, the weather in the midwest must have been awful. It was in the mid-30s in Milwaukee and Detroit on that day (courtesy of NOAA historical weather data archives).

1978: Opening Day

The season opened on April 5, with a somewhat unusual game: Minnesota at Seattle. It was only Seattle's second year in the league, and in their first year, they were as awful as expansion franchises used to be: 64-98...and they did NOT finish last. Minnesota had actually been decent the year before, finishing 17.5 games back, but with a record 7 games over .500.

Minnesota

Minnesota had a different look to start the 1978 season. Lyman Bostock, who hit a robust .336 in 1977, with 14 HR, 102 R, 90 RBI and 16 SB, had become a free agent at the end of the '77 season. At age 27, he was in his prime. The California Angels quickly signed him.

Bostock had mostly manned CF, with some games in LF. Dan Ford, the regular right fielder in 1977, moved to center field in 1978. It's interesting that Ford would become a free agent at the end of 1978, and would sign with California to replace Bostock, who was killed in September 1978 in a shooting incident.

Hosken Powell, a 25 year old first round draft pick (3d overall in 1975) was brought up to play right field. He would manage only an 84 OPS+, compared to Bostock's 144 in 1977 and 113 in 1978. Left field was to be manned by Willie Norwood, a backup to Larry Hisle in 1977. Hisle took his own 144 OPS+ to Milwaukee via free agency.

Bostock mostly led off, but also hit cleanup at times...an unusual situation. Hisle mostly hit cleanup, but he moved all over the order, including leadoff, 3d, 5th and 6th. In any event, they were key parts of the team. Powell would start the season as the leadoff man, but Norwood would be down in the 8 spot. The rest of the lineup remained stable.

Minnesota's pitching, ranked 12th out of 14 teams in 1977, lost Pete Redfern from the starting rotation (bumping him to the bullpen), but replaced him with 21 year old Roger Erickson -- no relation to the later Twin Scott Erickson. Roger had been drafted in the 3d round...the year before!

Minnesota had a strong closer in 1977 (the unknown Tom Johnson), but the rest of the bullpen was horrible. Johnson had to pitch 146 innings, all in relief. He was replaced in 1978 by Mike Marshall, a star reliever who regularly threw more than 100 IP a year. Johnson threw only 33 innings in 1978, and was mostly ineffective.

As for defense, Minnesota ranked 10th out of 14 teams in 1977 and did nothing to improve -- and in fact, lost ground in center field, where Bostock had good range and Ford did not.

Seattle

The Mariners had been 10th in the league in runs scored in 1977, with a pretty forgettable lineup. Danny Meyer had a decent year at 1b, with 22 HR and 90 RBI, but a weak OPS. Ruppert Jones, who would have a good major league career thereafter, was an above average hitter in CF, and cranked 24 homers, which would turn out to be his career high. Leroy Stanton, whose baseball card I cannot even picture, was the team stud with 27 HR and 90 RBIs.

The rest of the hitting was pretty bad, particularly at DH where the combination of Juan Bernhardt and Dave Collins managed an OPS+ of around 65. At least Collins was a rabbit on the bases. Same situation at 2b, where Jose Baez and Julio Cruz produced an OPS+ of about 75, but Cruz was a big time base stealer. They also suffered with Craig Reynolds' bat at SS. Reynolds would play 15 years, mostly with Houston, but only had one worse year at the plate than 1977.

In 1978, the lineup would be much the same. Bruce Bochte, a pretty good hitter, took over in left for Steve Braun. Leon Roberts took over in RF for Stanton, and Stanton moved to DH. That would seem to be a hitting upgrade, except Stanton fell apart. He went from a 130 OPS+ in 1977 to an atrocious 46 (!!) in 330+ plate appearances. He never played again. Bochte would fill in often at DH, with Tom Paciorek playing LF on those days. Paciorek, of course, went on to be a well-known broadcaster with the White Sox, as Hawk Harrelson's partner on WGN.

But it's opening day, and the changes look positive in the lineup on this day. Their opening day lineup would stay the same for four games, and then Darrell Johnson would abandon it, never to return to that lineup for the final 158 games.

As you might expect on an expansion team, the pitching in 1977 was awful, finishing last in the league. Except for a good closer in Enrique Romo, nearly every pitcher was substandard, and the rotation was uniformly bad. How's this for a rotation: Paul Abbott (had both hands), Dick Pole (great name, now a pitching coach for the Reds), Gary Wheelock, Rick Jones, Paul Mitchell (not the shampoo), Stan Thomas and Bob Galasso. They did get three starts from a young Rick Honeycutt, who went on to a nice career with the Dodgers and as Eck's setup man in Oakland.

So, with plenty of room for improvement, the Mariners did almost nothing to improve. Honeycutt would be a regular starter in 1978, and so would Byron McLaughlin. They did not pitch well, though. Abbott, Pole and Mitchell returned, with the same results, and they threw in Jim Colborn (now a pitching coach for the Pirates). Headed for last in ERA again.

Seattle's defensive efficiency was average in 1977, so with relatively few changes to the lineup, the same could be expected in 1978. Doesn't turn out that way, but hey, we don't know that yet.

Opening Day Game

Oh yeah, that. Well, not much happened. Seattle won 3-2, in a pitching duel between Dave Goltz (Min) and Glenn Abbott (Sea). Goltz threw a complete game. Abbott only went 6 1/2, but the closer Romo went 2 2/3 innings -- yeah, closers were different then -- for the save.

Probably the two weakest hitters in the game, Rob Wilfong at 2b for Minnesota, and Craig Reynolds at SS for Seattle had the best games. Wilfong was 2-for-3 and Reynolds was 3-for-4 with two RBI and a homer. Hosken Powell was 1-for-4 in his major league debut.

1978

My memory may be faulty, but I think 1978 may have been my favorite season as a kid. I was the right age to understand everything going on in baseball (age 12), the Dodgers had finally solidified their suppression of the Big Red Machine, and the Kansas City Royals were actually a good team. This latter fact was important, because in Jacksonville, Florida, the AA Jacksonville Suns were a Royals affiliate.

It was also the peak of my baseball card collecting, an important activity in 1978. If you didn't have a local MLB team, you saw baseball twice a week, at best: the Saturday Game of the Week on NBC, and the occasional Monday Night Baseball. Those games normally featured the Yankees, Red Sox, Reds and Dodgers, but in 1978 you got some Phillies, Pirates and Royals games too.

But that's only 7 teams. If you wanted to know what a player on one of the other teams looked like, you pretty much had to look at baseball cards. At that time, cards were not valuable and we had no inkling they would be some day. We just used them as our only access to what players and teams looked like.

I'm feeling old, because that was 30 years ago. I thought it might be fun to look back at the box scores, day-by-day, and see what the season might look like in hindsight. At 12 and without much television, I don't have many memories of specific plays or games, so it's almost like I'll be looking at the games cold.

Bad Trades

Watching the Reds-Marlins game, and researching where some of the players began their careers, revealed a couple of awful trades:

1. The Expos traded all-star Grady Sizemore, pitcher Cliff Lee (who looks like Cy Young) and Brandon Phillips of the Reds, for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew.

Colon pitched well for Montreal in the second half. He was then traded with Jorge Nunez to the ChiSox, for Rocky Biddle, El Duque, Jeff Liefer and cash.

Okay, so that means: Sizemore + Lee + Phillips = Drew + Biddle + Liefer + El Duque + cash. Yeah, that MLB-Montreal thing worked great!

2. The Rangers traded Aaron Harang with Ryan Cullen to the A's for Randy Velarde. Uh, I'd say they didn't think much of Harang as a prospect, since at the time of the trade, Velarde was a 38-year-old utilityman.

Oakland turned Harang into Jeff Bruksch and Joe Valentine three years later. Safe to say Harang was not developing like they thought?

So at 25-years old, some genius in Cincinnati said "I think Harang is worth more than Velarde + Bruksch + Valentine." And for once, I'm not using "genius" in a facetious manner.

BTW, did you realize Harang is 6'7" and 245 pounds. Wow. To put that in perspective, Jason Taylor, the defensive end for the Miami Dolphins, goes 6'6" 255!

Dodger Broadcasts

I don't think there's a better baseball experience than listening or watching a Dodgers telecast. Vin Scully solos on radio for three innings, and then switches to tv for the middle three, before moving back. Charlie Steiner and Rick Monday do t.v. and then radio. It helps that the Dodgers have an exciting young team.

There's so much experience on the broacast crew. To a young listener, the broadcasters are probably a little corny, and not hip enough. But they are classic baseball old school broadcasts. It's worth listening to a Dodger game on radio, even when t.v. is available.

The camera crew is experienced too. Tonight was a good example.

Blake DeWitt hit his first major league home run. The camera was poised in the dugout to capture this:

DeWitt enters the dugout taking off his helmet. His teammates do not meet him at the steps. They are uniformly sitting on the bench, looking out at the ball field, as if nothing happened. DeWitt is like a man on an island. DeWitt puts his bat in the rack. He sort of hangs his head. Can't decide what to do with the helmet. Then, when he decides to take it off, the Dodger bench explodes towards him, patting him on the back, hugging him, wrestling him around, etc. The silent treatment, and then the celebration for a kid's first MLB homer. Then the fans gave him a curtain call.

That's a great baseball moment...the kind of thing that made you want to play as a kid, and made me read box scores every morning. And good broadcasting to know that was coming.

Rose's 3,000th Hit

Today is the 30th anniversary of Pete Rose's 3,000 hit, on the way to becoming baseball's all-time hit leader.

They showed some video of the hit tonight on ESPN. He hit it off Steve Rogers of the Expos, a name pretty much forgotten today, but one of the very good pitchers of the 1970s and early 1980s. Rogers made the All-Star team four times, was runner up for ROY in 1973, and finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting three different times -- including a second place finish to Steve Carlton in 1982.

It was a road game, so no celebration: There wasn't a lot of fanfare/Nor were there many fans there/It was Montreal/After all.

Anyway, whereas now they would stop the game and celebrate, even in a road park, there was virtually nothing to mark the event. No teammates congratulating him. No opponents congratulating him. This was no Mark McGwire moment with Sosa hugging him (which I personally found disgusting).

But most interesting of all, Tony Perez, Rose's teammate on the Big Red Machine, was playing first base for Montreal. Rose trotted down to first and stood there. And so did Perez. Stand there. Ready for the next pitch. No congratulations. Just standing there. After a couple of minutes of both of them just standing there, Rose reached over and patted Perez' chest, and gave him the half-hug, with Perez sort of returning the half-hug...call it a quarter-hug.

I think the lack of general celebration is a product of the times. I think the lack of Perez' celebration is something deeper, like maybe Rose was always an asshole? Maybe? Not exactly far-fetched.

Clemens: Blame Clemens

Clemens, in the midst of denying PEDs, also is denying an affair with a country singer. His trainer says he's lying about the PEDs, and the singer says:

“I cannot refute anything in the story," McCready said regarding the paper's anonymously sourced report about their "love at first sight" meeting at a Florida bar when she was 15—and the then-28-year-old athlete, who at the time was pitching for the Boston Red Sox, was already a married father of two.

She accompanied Clemens to his hotel room that night, the 32-year-old songstress said, but the affair did not turn intimate until she moved to Nashville to pursue her career when she was 18.”

This does not bode well for Clemens' veracity. You could say McCready is just bitter or jealous. But she doesn't sound bitter. And why would she still be jealous some 17 years after their first meeting.

Cheating is no big shocker. I wonder how many baseball players cheat on their wives and families, being on the road all the time, surrounded by testosterone, and quite noticeable and attractive to women. A lot.

Most damning though: She's 15 years old, and he takes her to his hotel room? She says they weren’t “intimate” until 3 years later, but nobody with even the slightest understanding of human sexual behavior is going to believe that they waited three years. Not when it was "love at first sight" and they are already in his room. A year, maybe I'll buy. Three? No way.

Not only have Bonds and Clemens jeopardized their status in the Hall of Fame, they may be wearing stripes. Charlie Hustle is starting to look a lot Rose-ier.

Clemens: Blame the Media

While everyone else is ripping Roger Clemens to shreds, let me take a different approach.

I am sick of having athletes publicly humiliated. Sure, they committed transgressions, but if you and I did the same thing, the whole world would not know. Did guys like Bonds and Clemens, based on their extraordinary athletic abilities, agree to be humiliated this way? Some say yes. Why is that the case? Are extraordinarily talented lawyers subject to the same scrutiny? Doctors?

Regardless of your stance about public figures agreeing to the most negative side of celebrity, don't you just get tired of it?

Can you imagine the current media and Babe Ruth? He most certainly would not be in the Hall of Fame. That's just the most extreme example. I'd estimate at least 25% of the Hall of Fame members would not be there, if the media covered the game the way it does now.

Good Quotes

Vin Scully, about Dan Haren: "He's as likely to give up a walk as he is a tattoo." Scully is old school, and sometimes says corny things, but he's like one of those old radio guys. Still colorful. Love that. He can still say something like this (about Orlando Hudson in the same game): "The O-Dog is everywhere."

Miguel Cabrera, asked about his slow start: "Don't worry. I'll hit." What I particularly like is how he isn't analyzing it. He knows he is a great hitter, so he's not the least bit worried. You want that guy in your lineup.

Manny Ramirez, about being AL player of the week: "I'm a pure hitter. I could be whatever I wanted to be. If I wanted to hit 50 home runs or 40 home runs every year, I'd do it. But I don't want to. I want to be a pure hitter and hit it to all fields." Talk about confidence! I'd make fun of how cocky this is, but Manny is a surefire Hall of Famer in my book. I can't really dispute the quote.

Star

In the Milwaukee-Cincinnati game, fifth inning, Dunn is trying to score from second, and there's going to be a play at the plate.

Dunn, lumbering towards home, did not slide and he was tagged out. Clearly a baserunning blunder from Dunn.

FSN Ohio's announcers (Thom Brennaman and Chris Welsh) blamed the baserunning gaffe on Joey Votto. Their theory is that Votto, who was standing behind the plate, only signaled Dunn once. Ergo, it was Votto's fault that Dunn was thrown out.

Probably Votto should have been more emphatic, but you can't tell me the slow footed Dunn doesn't know there's going to be a play at the plate almost anytime he is trying to score from second. Plus, isn't it his job to look for Votto's signal? To say it wasn't emphatic is fine, but to say he has responsibility for Cincy not scoring the run, but Dunn does not bear responsibility, is ridiculous.

Of course, Dunn is a star, and Votto's a rookie. Rookie mistake, right? Plus, the commentators are probably closer to Dunn in the clubhouse, and no use making those interviews more awkward.

Padre Power Outage

The San Diego Padres have only 19 extra base hits in their first 10 games. The other major league teams have averaged 28 extra base hits in the same time period. Most likely this is the effect of having played 7 of the 11 games at home, where Petco reduces run scoring by approximately 10%.

It occurred to me that this also might be caused by their hitting coach, if they had a new one. And guess what? They do...sort of. Last year on July 31, 2007, Wally Joyner became the hitting coach. Could that be what's causing the power outage? Does he have a "singles" philosophy?

Simply, no. First, Joyner wasn't just a singles hitter, although he trended that way at the late stages of his career. He regularly posted ISOs of .150 and higher. He hit for power in his early years, including 34 home runs in 1987, before the massive power increases of the early 90s. That figure was good enough to tie him for 3rd in the home run race that year. It seems unlikely he'd be teaching a singles approach.

More importantly, in August/September last year, the Padres slugged a higher percentage than they did before Joyner took over the hitting post. So it's probably just the excess of games in the home park.

But look at this table, showing where Padres hitters are hitting the ball in 2008, and their averages for 2005-2007:

       Pull  Middle  OppField
2008    22%    57%       21%
05-07   28%    54%       18%

Padres hitters are pulling the ball quite a bit less, which saps power in a big way. Slugging percentages on pulled balls are in the .700s. Slugging percentages up the middle and to the opposite field are in the .390-.410 range. The Padres do not have a massively revamped lineup, so it should not be attributable to personnel changes. Again, this could be a ballpark effect.

Of course, there also are only 273 at bats in the 2008 calculation...far too small a sample size to draw definitive conclusions. It is something to watch, though, once we have more ABs to work with, and a more even distribution of home and away games for the Padres.

Huston Street

I've never paid much attention to Huston Street before. Now that he's on my fantasy team, I'm watching him more closely. Unfortunately, in three outings, he has surrendered three home runs.

I've been messing around with MLB Gameday's pFX pitch data. I can't claim I understand it to the degree that some do, but I wanted to investigate the difference between the gopher pitches Street has thrown, and his normal pitches. These are admittedly very small sample sizes, so take it with a grain of salt.

Because the first game was in Japan, complete pFX data is unavailable for the first game. So we'll start with the second game, on April 2, against Boston. Varitek hit a home run off of a change up, at least as classified by the pFX system (which may or may not be accurate with respect to pitch identification). He threw 20 pitches that day...7 were changeups, averaging 84.75 mph at the release point. pFX shows his fastball at only 88.43, however, so there isn't a whole lot of difference. Two of Street's change ups were around 80 mph.

It's possible these pitches were misclassified. If not, his change isn't much of a change.

I graphed the difference between the change up he threw to Varitek on the homer, and the 6 other change ups he threw that game. First, the chart, then some explanation:The top point on the blue line represents the average release point for the 6 non-HR change ups he threw, and the bottom point on the blue line represents the average location of the change ups as they reached the front of home plate. The top and bottom of the strike zone are represented by the purple lines...and they are averages of the strike zones of the batters Street faced in Boston that day. The top point on the yellow line represents the release point on the change up to Varitek, and the bottom point is approximately the height at which Varitek made contact.

What is clear from the graphic is that Street's release point was further left on the home run ball, and instead of a falling motion (induced mostly by gravity), it crossed the plate slightly outside (to Varitek) and right in the middle of the average strike zone. MLB pFX reports this as an 86 mph change up. He had thrown two earlier change ups to Varitek in the at bat, averaging 80 mph...both for balls.

In the game against Cleveland last night, Hafner hit a fastball into the seats. It was the third fastball of the at bat. Street threw eight other fastballs during his appearance. The average speed at release was 89 mph, which is about the speed of the fastball he threw to Hafner.

Here's the chart for that one:

It shows that Street's release point was off to the left on the HR ball in this instance too, and the pitch ended up in Hafner's wheelhouse.

One note: the downward slopes of the lines represent only starting and ending points for the pitch. It does not indicate the pitch "broke" in that manner. The lines include the effects of gravity.

Japanese Baseball

I'm watching Hideki Kuroda pitch tonight, and the San Diego broadcast team had an interesting story about him that I thought I would repeat here.

Kuroda was worried about joining the Dodgers, because he was concerned that Russell Martin is the everyday catcher. Apparently Japanese players are of the general opinion that American catchers are "sloppy" compared to their Japanese counterparts. Kuroda joined the Dodgers after talking with the Dodger closer, Takashi Saito, who assured him that Martin knew what he was doing.

Martin wasn't the least bit concerned, saying "I'm Canadian."

(Side note: Kuroda looks solid. I don't want to speak too soon, though, since I drafted him for my fantasy team).

Jeff Brantley, YOU ARE NOT A CLUTCH COMMENTATOR

Jeff Brantley, the former closer for the Giants, Reds and other teams, was doing the color commentary for the Arizona-Cincinnati matchup. Reds were down 5-3 in the bottom of the ninth. Phillips singles. Dunn singles. So there are men on 1st and 2d with no outs.

Encarnacion at the plate. Brantley keeps saying he should bunt, and Dusty Baker obliges. Back to this decision in a moment. After Encarnacion displays absolutely no talent for bunting, and has a 1-2 count, Brantley says:

If he can't bunt, get him out of there. Put someone else in. HE DOESN'T HIT IN THE CLUTCH. THIS GUY IS NOT A CLUTCH HITTER!

I capitalized the last two sentences because Brantley was literally yelling, as if he were actually angry about it. The very next pitch -- approximately 2 seconds later -- Encarnacion clubbed one into the left field seats to give the Reds a 6-5 victory.

When hearing Brantley, I had two immediate thoughts: (1) lots of studies show there is no such thing as clutch ability that is repeatable from year to year and (2) what does he have against Encarnacion that would make him yell out to millions of people "This guy is not a clutch hitter"? I hope Brantley never has to interview him.

Now, let's consider whether Encarnacion should be bunting, assuming he is an average hitter (fair assumption) and average bunter (unfair assumption...he looked terrible bunting and had no sacrifices last year).

Cincinnati's win expectancy, down by 2 in the bottom of the ninth, with men on first and second, is 34.6%. If Encarnacion gets the bunt down, there will be one out and men on second and third. The win expectancy for that situation is 30.1%, so the bunt is a bad play for an average hitter/average bunter because it reduces Cincinnati's chances of winning by 5%.

Arguably Encarnacion is a slightly above average hitter, and he certainly is a below average bunter. The bunt, then is a pretty bad play, if you are actually expecting him to bunt. One caveat -- if you are merely attempting the bunt to draw the third baseman in, you may be increasing your chances of scoring if you then swing away. That's not what Dusty was trying however.

Sideline Reporters

I've complained before about the third member of the broadcast team, particularly on ESPN, where the third member either gives us (a) meaningless information, (b) information readily available from any other source or (c) a product endorsement. Normally it's just an excuse to let someone other than the play-by-play and color men talk.

Watching the Mets at the Marlins, on FSN, I saw a useful report from Craig Minervini, the "sideline" reporter for the Marlins local broadcast. In the game, Carlos Beltran hit a deep fly to right that appeared to hit just above the yellow line on the wall. It was called a home run and Beltran did his trot.

Marlins manager Freddy Gonzalez argued, the umps conferred, and they changed the call. The replay shows it hit the railing and was clearly a home run. Even though it would have been hard to see exactly where the ball hit in real time from field level, it bounced way up in the air. It only would have done that if it hit the railing. If it hit the yellow line on the padded wall, it would barely have bounced at all.

Anyway, within minutes Minervini was in right field, in the stands, asking the fans in the front row exactly where the ball was hit. A fan pointed to the spot on the railing. Another fan with a scorebook said he recorded it as an HR, and only crossed it out when the umps got it wrong. That's good and fast work.

Boone Factor for Jockeys

I couldn't resist calculating the Boone Factor for a jockey. The only jockey's name I know is Willie Shoemaker, and Wikipedia says he weighed 95 pounds (and only 2 1/2 pounds at birth).

His Boone Factor? 7.92. Nearly 8 beers a night!

The Boone Factor

Bret Boone was a productive player for awhile, and then he fell off a cliff and retired in a surprise announcement in Spring Training 2006. No explanation.

Yesterday he revealed that the problem was alcohol. He's clean now, and all that stuff, and trying to make a comeback. We'll see.

What struck me about the story on MLB.com was this sentence: "Boone's problems started in a more subtle matter[sic], but it got to a point where he would drink 12 to 15 beers after a game."

Twelve to 15 beers? Maybe it's just me, but that seems like a lot of beer. That's a party.

Was it a lot for Bret? According to baseballreference.com, Boone's playing weight was 180 pounds, which is about 81,647 grams (using Google's conversion feature). Fifteen beers at 12 ounces per beer, is 180 ounces, or about 5,103 grams.

So, bathroom breaks aside, Boone may have added another 6.25% to his body weight after games. He may have weighed as much as 11 pounds more leaving the bar than when he arrived. I think I know why he lost some bat speed.

The sciences always have names for their formulae, so I'm going to refer to this as the Boone Factor. The Boone Factor has many applications. For instance, how many beers would that be for, say, Tony Siragusa? Football reference.com reports his weight at 330 pounds. The exchange rate would be 27 beers.

To do your own calculations of the Boone Factor:

Step One: Multiply the player's weight (in pounds) times 453.59 to find his weight in grams

Step Two: Multiply the figure in Step One by .0625 (or 6.25%) -- call this the Boone Intake Parameter

Step Three: Divide the figure in Step Two by 28.35 to find the number of beer ounces imbibed

Step Four: Divide the figure in Step Three by 12 to derive the number of beers. (Substitute for the 12 if you are calculating tall boys, cans of malt liquor, or appropriately, Boone's Farm).

Anyone Can Write A Baseball Book

Tonight at Borders I read the Introduction and first chapter of a book called "Stat One" by Craig Messmer. The book consists of a ranking of historical players, by position, with some commentary.

Basically the facts and figures associated with the players have been seen in countless other places. The alleged innovation is a new stat that the author claims best represents hitting ability, or value, or both...I'm not sure. Best I can tell, he does not actually use the new stat to rank the players, so the rankings end up being just another guy's opinion.

The new stat is this: (Net Runs + Net Runs + Complete Bases)/Plate Appearances.

Net Runs are: RBI + R - HR
Complete Bases are: Total Bases + BB + HBP + SB - CS

That's it. That's the Holy Grail stat the book considers "A New System For Rating Baseball's All-Time Greatest Players." He calls it the P/E. The "P" is for production and the "E" is for efficiency.

He does almost nothing to justify the stat. He first criticizes production stats because they are dependent on other players. He then criticizes efficiency stats because they do not translate to runs. Fair criticisms, but nothing new.

How does he solve the problem? He creates a new stat that is two-thirds dependent on other players and divides it by plate appearances to produce an efficiency stat that does not translate to actual runs produced. In other words, his stat is comprised of exactly the parts that he says don't work in existing statistical methods. Then he makes it worse by combining them all.

Sabermetricians might ask (among many other things) "Why count net runs twice?" His response? To even things out so that Complete Bases does not dominate the outcome.

P/E seems to have no mathematical or theoretical justification. It's just a guy taking a bunch of traditional stats and combining them in a way that hasn't been published before. There's a good reason a stat this simple hasn't already been published.

Add, subtract, divide. Mix and match. See how many combinations you can come up with. It doesn't have to mean anything. It will sell.

I'm thinking of (Height (inches) + Weight (pounds) + Total Bases)/(Plate Appearances - Strikeouts). Perhaps I'll publish a list of the greatest players of all time.

Santana Trade Part III

We've got four Mets prospects...three pitchers and one hitter. I don't have Baseball America's Prospects book for this year, so I'll go with Kevin Goldstein's Top 100 list.

Two of the pitchers, Humber and Mulvey, are not listed in Goldstein's Top 100. They were both in Double A last year. Neither seem likely to crack the list of Top 25 pitchers next year.

The other pitcher, Deolis Guerra, is a kid. He is at the bottom of the Top 100 list. It is conceivable he could crack the Top 25 pitchers. Let's assume he does. Under Wang's system, his expected value is 11.2 WARP over six years, and the savings over a free agent add another 8.4 WARP for six years, so that's 19.6 in expected WARP value for Guerra.

Carlos Gomez, the young center fielder, is higher on Goldstein's list. It seems likely he could crack the Top 25 hitting prospect list next year, but he does not look like he'll be projected as a Top 10 guy. That's another 31.7 in expected WARP value.

So, if Gomez and Guerra are #11-#25 prospects as hitter and pitcher, respectively, and Humber and Mulvey do not crack the Top 25, Santana has to be worth 51.3 WARP over the next six years.

BP has not released PECOTA projections for this year, but last year's remain available. BP only projected five years from 2007-2011. From the years 2008-2011, Santana was expected to generate WARP of 23.3, as follows: 7.1, 6.2, 5.0 & 5.0. For 2012, let's assume another 5.0, and for 2013, let's assume a little decline, since he'll be 34 years old. Call it 4.5.

That makes Santana worth 32.8 over the six years. That seems to give the Twins a significant edge. It does, however, assume that Gomez and Guerra end up as top 25 prospects. Let's say Gomez has a 50% chance of being a Top 25 prospect, and Guerra has a 25% chance. The expected WARP for those two would now be 20.75, and the Mets win the trade (subject to the additional caveat below about Humber and Mulvey).

Maybe PECOTA is off and Santana will be better. But keep in mind that in the last six years, Santana has provided 54.0 of WARP, and that's during his prime! If he performs at that same level, the Mets win the trade.

Keep in mind that the scenarios showing the Mets winning are without any data about what prospects outside the Top 25 are worth. They are worth something, even if it is a long shot. Mulvey and Humber have some expected value that we'd need to add onto the Twins side of the equation.

Long story short, if Gomez and Guerra become Top 25 prospects next year, it looks like the Twins win. If Gomez does and Guerra doesn't, it's close to break even for the Twins, subject to whatever value Mulvey and Humber have. If Guerra does and Gomez doesn't, the Twins lose.

It's not as obvious a win for the Mets as I would have thought...at least using Wang's analysis.

One other point is required, and Wang mentions it too. Despite all the math, Santana is not just a star...he's a big star. He can win the Mets a couple of championships. All of the Twins guys can contribute to a team, but they cannot carry a team. If the Twins got three minor contributors and an everyday player, or even two of each, they may add up to a star's value. However, the star brings something more than raw value to the equation. The star pushes you over the edge towards a championship.

Santana Trade Part II

Top 10 hitting prospects have an expected 6-year WARP of 23.1, while those ranked #11-#25 are at 18.0. Top 10 pitching prospects have an expected 6-year WARP of 12.9, while those ranked #11-#25 are at 11.2.

The most innovative thought in Wang's analysis is to calculate how much salary a team saves by keeping a prospect, over what the team would spend to get the same WARP from a free agent. That salary savings can be used to then purchase or develop another player.

For example, a Top 10 hitting prospect can be expected to produce a 6-year WARP of 23.1 at a cost of approximately $2.0 million per year. The same free agent would cost about $8.8 million per year. The savings of $6.8 million could be used to purchase a free agent who would provide another 18.28 in WARP. Therefore the prospect is worth at least 42 WARP, and any trade in which that prospect is shipped to another team requires that the "selling" team get at least 42 WARP in return over the next 6 years to break even. (Again, these are figures from my spreadsheet using what I interpret Wang's methodology to be. They differ slightly from those reported in his tables.)

It works out something like this:

1. A top 10 hitting prospect is odds-on to be a contributor, and the money saved by keeping him and getting a free agent nets you another contributor. If you trade the prospect, you trade two contributors. You have to get a star in return.

2. An 11-25 hitting prospect is odds-on to be a minor contributor, and the money saved by keeping him and getting a free agent nets you another minor contributor. If you trade the prospect, you trade two minor contributors. You have to get an everyday player in return.

3. A top 10 pitching prospect is odds-on to be a minor contributor, and the money saved by keeping him and getting a free agent nets you a fairly useless pitcher. If you trade the prospect, you trade a minor contributor and a bust. You have to get a contributor in return.

4. An 11-25 pitching prospect is odds-on to be a bust, and the money saved by keeping him and getting a free agent nets you another fairly useless pitcher. If you trade the prospect, you trade two busts. You still have to get a contributor in return.


That's the concept I want to apply to the Santana deal.

(continued in Part III)

Santana Trade Part I

I have yet to see a publication, journalist or fan who thinks the Twins "won" the Santana trade. Today I read an article in the most recent issue of The Baseball Research Journal, written by Victor Wang that makes me wonder if the consensus is correct.

Wang looked at Top 10 prospects listed in Baseball America in the late 90s, and calculated how many of them were busts, how many were contributors, how many were everyday players and how many were stars. He used BP's WARP system to make those determinations, and I won't rehash them here. He did the same for prospects ranked 11-25 (and who never cracked the Top 10).

He then calculated what those prospects are expected to be worth, and what they are expected to cost, over a 6 year period. The first three years they make major league minimum. The next three years they make $0.64 million, $0.83 million and $1.29 million per WARP. The expected figures are a straight "expected value" calculation, multiplying the historical probabilities from his Baseball America analysis, times the salary and WARP figures he found.

He also calculated how much a free agent would cost assuming the same expected WARP, using $1.69 million per WARP in year one, and then increasing the cost by 10.87% each year for "inflation." (This last point is not entirely clear in the article. He mentions 10.87% escalation, but then seems to use $1.69 million in his calculation).

The article includes tables that are totally non-intuitive, and unfortunately, his peer reviewers did not flag this for the author. He provides a text description of the tables that is scarcely more helpful. I had to read the article four times, and then do my own spreadsheet, despite the fact the calculations are pretty straightforward once you have Wang's data about the prospects.

(In the rest of this topic, I'll use the figures from my spreadsheet, based on what I interpret Wang's methodology to be. They differ slightly from those reported in his tables.)

Many of the conclusions support what we already know. Pitching prospects are a significantly more risky crop than hitting prospects. Top pitching prospects have a 54-60% chance of being a bust and only a 3-4% chance of being stars. Top hitting prospects have a 20-33% chance of being a bust, and 14%-16% chance of being stars.

(continued in Part II)