Pitching Predictions -- August 31 (and Results)

A bad, bad day for the Predictamatic. That's baseball.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER 4+Runs 5+Runs
Davies (KCR)    5.0  6   0   3   3   3  32%    19%
                5.0  4   1   1   5   2  Grade: B
Garza (MIN)     5.1  6   1   2   5   3  40%    28%
                5.1  9   0   2   6   4  Grade: A

Rodriguez (HOU) 5.1  7   1   2   5   3  36%    23%
                6.0  4   0   3   5   0  Grade: C
Marshall (CHC)  5.1  6   0   2   4   2  25%    14%
                3.2  5   1   4   3   1  Grade: C+

Liz (BAL)         (insufficient data)
Wakefield (BOS) 6.0  7   0   2   3   3  32%    19%
                  (did not start -- Tavarez instead)

Buehrle (CHW)   6.1  7   1   1   4   3  38%    25%
                7.0  4   0   0   4   2  Grade: B-
Carmona (CLE)   6.1  7   1   2   5   3  36%    24%
                6.0  7   0   6   4   5  Grade: C-

Shearn (CIN)      (insufficient data)
Reyes (STL)     5.1  6   1   2   4   3  33%    20%
                1.0  4   2   1   2   4  Grade: D

Jimenez (COL)   5.1  5   0   2   6   2  23%    12%
                6.2  3   1   1   6   3  Grade: B
Hernandez (ARI) 6.0  7   1   3   3   4  45%    32%
                7.0  9   0   1   2   0  Grade: C

Vasquez (DET)     (insufficient data)
Blanton (OAK)   7.0  7   0   1   4   2  25%    14%
                7.0  5   0   1   6   2  Grade: A

Meche (KCR)     6.1  7   -   1   4   2  28%    16%
                7.0  7   0   3   3   3  Grade: B
Baker (MIN)     6.1  6   0   1   5   2  23%    14%
                9.0  1   0   1   9   0  Grade: C

Wells (LAD)     5.0  7   1   2   3   4  47%    30%
                5.0  6   0   1   3   3  Grade: A-
Cassel (SDP)      (insufficient data)

Maine (NYM)     6.0  6   1   2   5   3  34%    20%
                7.0  3   0   3   8   1  Grade: B
Hudson (ATL)    6.1  7   -   2   3   2  22%    11%
                6.0  6   2   0   1   4  Grade: C-

Kendrick (PHI)  5.2  7   1   1   3   3  42%    27%
                7.0  6   0   1   4   2  Grade: B-
Mitre (FLA)     5.2  7   0   2   4   3  37%    24%
                3.1  7   0   1   1   6  Grade: C-

Armas (PIT)     5.0  7   2   2   4   5  68%    54%
                6.0  4   1   2   5   3  Grade: D
Gallardo (MIL)  6.2  6   1   1   6   2  24%    12%
                7.0  5   1   1   7   2  Grade: A

Washburn (SEA)  6.0  7   0   2   3   3  34%    20%
                3.1  7   3   5   0   6  Grade: F   
Marcum (TOR)    5.2  7   2   1   4   4  56%    38%
                5.0  7   2   2   3   4  Grade: A

Correia (SFG)     (insufficient data)
Redding (WSN)   6.0  6   -   2   3   2  22%    13%
                5.0  5   0   5   1   3  Grade: C

Sonnanstine (TB)5.1  8   2   1   4   4  60%    42%
                8.0  2   0   0   5   0  Grade: F
Hughes (NYY)    5.0  5   -   3   6   2  22%    11%
                4.1  7   1   4   4   4  Grade: D

Padilla (TEX)   4.2  8   1   2   3   4  60%    47%
                6.2 10   1   1   0   6  Grade: C
Saunders (LAA)  6.0  7   0   2   4   3  34%    19%
                5.0 10   0   1   5   2  Grade: B-

Big Games: J.Buck (DNP), A.Ramirez (3/4, 1R), D.Ortiz (1/3, 2R, 1HR, 1RBI), Holliday (1/5, 1R), Hawpe (3/5, 1R, 2RBI), Cust (2/3, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI), Teixeira (0/4), Uggla (1/3, 1R), Cabrera (1/4, 1RBI), Willingham (1/1, injured), Fielder (0/2), Braun (0/3), Gross (2/3, 2R), Sexson (DNP), Beltre (2/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI), Guillen (0/4), A-Rod (1/3, 1RBI), Matsui (0/3), Giambi (0/3), Guerrero (2/5, 1R, 1RBI), Morales (2/4, 1R), G.Anderson (1/4, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI)

Game Winners: Minnesota (Gm1) (tossup- L), Cubs (L), Boston (n/a -- different starter), Cleveland (W), Cincinnati (L), Colorado (W), Oakland (W), Minnesota (Gm2) (W), San Diego (W), Atlanta (L), Florida (L), Milwaukee (W), Seattle (L), Washington (tossup-L), Yankees (L), Angels (W)

Selig Endorses Cooper

Bud Selig, commenting on Cecil Cooper being named interim manager of the Astros, said:

This is a big thing," Selig said. "I'm very proud of [owner] Drayton McLane and the Houston Astros for doing what they've done. I can tell you they won't be sorry. Cecil Cooper is a classy guy who deserves an opportunity, and I'm very confident he'll do very well.

I think it's very important. I really do. I think he really has earned this opportunity. Hopefully, this is a long-term proposition."

Uh, since when did the commissioner of MLB comment on the wisdom of hirings and firings of managers? Cooper played for the Brewers when Selig owned the team, and it is apparent that they are friends. It's hard to knock a guy for supporting his pal. But the commissioner can't tell the world he endorses Cooper, can he?

Would you be pissed if you were Drayton McLane? On the one hand, it is a pat on the back from the commish. On the other, what if you really don't want Cooper in the long-term but the commissioner is pimping him to baseball fans everywhere?

To put a better light on it, Selig's comments are entwined with his comments supporting more diversity in major league baseball's management ranks, which I agree with. I think Selig could have made the diversity point without injecting his personal feelings about Cooper into the situation.

Pitcher Predictions -- August 30 (Results)

Pitching predictor not bad, except Chris Young is obviously not himself after the injury and Ed Nunez, for whom I should not have attempted a prediction because of limited source data. Breakout hitters not great. Game predictor so-so.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER 4+Runs 5+Runs
Davis (ARI)    6.0   6   -   3   4   3  33%    20%
               6.2   4   -   2   7   3  Grade: A-
Young (SDP)    6.0   4   -   2   7   1   6%     3%
               4.1   2   1   6   3   5  Grade: F

Schilling (BOS)6.1   7   1   1   4   3  34%    22%
               7.0   6   2   1   4   2  Grade: B+
Wang (NYY)     6.1   7   -   2   3   3  29%    18%
               7.0   1   -   4   5   0  Grade: C

Danks (CHW)    5.0   6   1   2   5   3  46%    29%
               5.2   7   1   1   8   2  Grade: B
Millwood (TEX) 5.2   6   0   2   5   2  28%    18%
               7.0   6   1   2   6   1  Grade: B+

Belisle (CIN)  6.0   7   1   1   4   3  39%    25%
               5.0   7   0   0   4   2  Grade: B
Morris (PIT)   6.0   7   1   3   3   3  44%    29%
               5.2   9   0   3   4   3  Grade: B+

Bonderman (DET)6.2   7   0   1   6   2  28%    17%
               7.0   6   0   0   3   1  Grade: B+
Nunez (KCR)    5.1   5   1   1   4   3  28%    15%
               6.1  12   2   0   6   6  Grade: F

Parra (MIL)        (insufficient data)
Lilly (CHC)    6.0   6   1   2   6   3  37%    22%
               5.0   5   1   4   6   3  Grade: B+

Hernandez (NYM)5.1   5   1   3   6   3  39%    24%
               3.0   6   3   1   2   5  Grade: C
Lohse (PHI)    6.1   7   1   1   3   3  31%    20%
               3.2   5   0   2   2   3  Grade: C+

Ramirez (SEA)  4.2   7   1   3   2   4  60%    43%
               5.2   6   0   3   2   3  Grade: B
Laffey (CLE)   5.1   7   -   1   2   3  33%    21%
               6.1   7   1   0   4   4  Grade: B

Pineiro (STL)  6.0   6   2   2   4   4  64%    49%
               6.0   5   1   1   3   2  Grade: B-
Albers (HOU)   6.0   7   1   3   3   3  45%    29%
               7.0   3   0   4   3   1  Grade: C

Kazmir (TBD)   5.2   7   0   3   5   3  40%    24%
               5.0   7   2   3   5   4  Grade: B+
Guthrie (BAL)  6.1   6   1   2   5   3  33%    19%
               6.0   8   2   3   6   5  Grade: D+

Big Games: A-Rod (0/3, 1R, 1SB), Kinsler (1/4), Wilkerson (DNP), Saltalamacchia (2/4, 1R), Griffey (3/5, 1R, 1RBI, Dunn (0/2), Thames (DNP), Ordonez (3/4 1R, 1HR, 3RBI), Braun (1/4 1R, 1SB), Fielder (0/3), Howard (3/5, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI), Beltran (1/4, 1RBI), Sizemore (1/2, 1R, 1SB), Hafner (1/5, 1R), V.Martinez (3/5, 1RBI, Garko (1/3, 1R, 1RBI), Peralta (1/5), Blake (DNP), Berkman (1/3, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI), C.Lee (0/4), L.Scott (1/3 1RBI), Ankiel (1/3), Pujols (0/3), C.Pena (0/4, 1R)

Game Winners: San Diego (L), Yankees (W), Texas (W), Pittsburgh (toss-up-L), Detroit (W), Milwaukee (toss-up-L), Philadelphia (W), Cleveland (W), St. Louis (L), Baltimore (L)

Jake, what are you doing?

Jake Peavy is one of my favorite pitchers in baseball. He works quickly and decisively. He concentrates. He's just professional.

But he was recently asked about Carlos Zambrano's huge payday, and responded that San Diego would not be able to offer him a suitable contract. Problem is, his contract expires in 2008, or 2009 if the club exercises its option. Why is Peavy commenting on whether the Padres can afford him in the 2010 season?

He did say he will only "ask for what's fair," "I am not looking to break the bank" and "I hope it happens here." Nevertheless, he seems to be bargaining more than 2 years ahead of schedule, not knowing what the pitching market will be in 2010, what the Padres financial picture will be like in 2010, or whether he'll even be an effective, uninjured pitcher by then.

Nominee for Quote of the Year

On Baseball Tonight, John Kruk just said the following about Yuniesky Betancourt, the Seattle shortstop with the .711 career OPS:

"If he ever learns to hit in the big leagues, he's gonna be a stud."

Pitcher Predictions -- Results

Some refinements to the system, though mostly for my benefit (speed and output).

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER 4+Runs 5+Runs
Petit (ARI)     5.0  6   1   2   4   3  41%   25%
                3.2  7   3   2   3   6  Grade: C-
Smoltz (ATL)    6.1  6   0   1   7   2  17%    8%
                8.0  5   0   3  12   2  Grade: B-

Guthrie (BAL)   6.1  7   1   2   5   3  35%   23%
                8.0  3   1   0   6   2  Grade: B
Halladay (TOR)  7.0  7   1   1   4   3  32%   18%
                9.0  6   0   3   5   2  Grade: B

Garland (CHW)   6.1  8   0   1   2   3  36%   22%
                2.2 10   2   1   1   5  Grade: C-
Hernandez(SEA)  6.0  6   -   2   6   2  20%   11%
                6.0  8   1   3   4   4  Grade: C+

Harang (CIN)    6.1  6   1   1   7   3  34%   21%
                6.2  9   4   0   8   6  Grade: D+
Capuano (MIL)   5.2  5   1   2   5   2  24%   12%
                6.1  9   2   1   8   5  Grade: D

Sabathia (CLE)  6.2  7   1   1   7   3  40%   25%
                8.0  5   2   0   6   2  Grade: B-
Shields (TBD)   6.1  7   1   1   7   3  41%   26%
                6.0  6   0   1   6   2  Grade: B+

Francis (COL)   6.1  7   1   1   4   3  29%   15%
                6.0  6   0   2   7   2  Grade: B+
Penny (LAD)     6.1  6   -   2   5   2  16%    9%
                5.0  2   0   5   3   1  Grade: B

Bonderman (DET) 6.0  7   1   1   5   4  48%   32%
                6.0  7   1   5   5   3  Grade: A-
Wang (NYY)      6.1  7   0   1   3   3  32%   19%
                6.0  9   0   2   6   3  Grade: A-

Albers (HOU)    6.0  7   1   3   4   3  41%   27%
                5.2  7   1   3   3   5  Grade: B+
Maddux (SDP)    6.0  6   -   1   4   2  18%    9%
                6.0  2   1   0   3   1  Grade: B+

Davies (KCR)    4.1  5   0   4   3   3  38%   24%
                5.0  6   1   3   4   2  Grade: B+
DiNardo (OAK)   6.1  7   -   2   3   2  23%   13%
                8.0  5   0   0   3   1  Grade: B+

Saunders (LAA)  6.0  7   0   2   3   3  28%   16%
                7.2  6   0   2   7   1  Grade: C
Tavarez (BOS)   5.2  7   -   2   3   3  30%   17%
                6.0  2   0   2   2   2  Grade: B+

O.Hernandez(NYM)6.0  5   0   2   5   2  24%   12%
                7.0  3   1   4   4   2  Grade: B
Hill (WSN)      6.1  5   -   1   4   1  11%    5%
                7.0  7   1   2   2   2  Grade: B-

Lohse (PHI)     6.0  7   0   1   4   3  35%   22%
                6.2  6   0   3   7   4  Grade: A-
Snell (PIT)     6.1  6   0   2   6   3  29%   17%
                7.0  8   2   3  10   4  Grade: B-

Lowry (SFG)     5.2  6   0   4   4   3  44%   29%
                5.1  5   0   5   3   3  Grade: A
Willis (FLA)    5.2  8   0   2   3   4  48%   33%
                6.0  7   2   1   3   3  Grade: B+

Millwood (TEX)  5.1  7   0   2   3   3  38%   23%
                7.0  4   1   5   3   1  Grade: D
Santana (MIN)   6.2  5   1   1   8   2  22%   10%
                8.0  2   0   0  17   0  Grade: F

K.Wells (STL)   5.2  6   1   3   4   3  42%   28%
Zambrano (CHC)  6.0  6   0   3   5   3  30%   19%
                             (ppd)

Big Games: Chipper Jones (0/4), Mark Teixeira (2/3, 1R, 2HR, 4RBI), Carlos Pena (2/5 1R, 1HR, 1RBI), A-Rod (1/3, 2R, 2BB), Hideki Matsui (1/3, 3RBI), Adrian Gonzalez (2/4 2R, 1HR, 1RBI), Barry Bonds (DNP), Aramis Ramirez (ppd), Torii Hunter (1/4), Justin Morneau (0/1, 3BB)

Game Winners: Atlanta (W), Toronto (W), Seattle (W), Milwaukee (L), Tampa (toss up-W), Dodgers (W), Yankees (W), San Diego (W), Oakland (W), Boston (toss up-L), Washington (L), Pittsburgh (W), Florida (toss up-L), Minnesota (W), Cubs (ppd)

Micah is a Slugah

Micah Owings: Four hits in 5 at-bats, 2 homers, and 6 RBI. A good night for any hitter. A spectacular night for a pitcher.

Let's put this in perspective. Since 1957:

-only 25 starting pitchers have collected 4 hits or more in a game. Mel Stottlemyre went 5-for-5 in a game against the Senators in 1964. The other 24 had four hits, most recently Bobby Livingston on July 17 of this year, who went 4-for-4. Only six of the 25 hit a home run, and none hit two.

-only 31 starting pitchers have hit two home runs in a game. Dontrelle Willis did it most recently in a game last year at Shea Stadium. None of the 31 had four hits.

-only 4 starting pitchers have 6 RBI or more in a game. Tony Cloninger had a whopping 9 RBI in a 1966 game against the Giants. The only one since 1969 is Robert Person, who had 7 in a 2002 game. Cloninger and Person both had two homers, but neither had four hits.

So what are the odds of 4 hits and 2 homers and 6 RBI? I'm not a probability expert, so I don't know in terms of percentages.

What I do know is that no starting pitcher in the last 50 years has 4 or more hits, 2 or more homers and 6 or more RBI in a single game.

Owings may be the next Rick Ankiel.

A Tale of Two Joses

Jose Offerman is in the news for attacking a pitcher (and catcher) in the independent leagues with a baseball bat, after he was plunked with a pitch. One of the victims has a concussion. I'd say that ends Offerman's career.

I was trying to conjure up Offerman's face (without Internet assistance) and I kept coming up with someone I think is Jose Vizcaino. It occurred to me that I never really distinguished the two, though I have a vague impression that Offerman was better. Didn't they both wear goggles at some point?

Vizcaino came up a year earlier (1989), and stuck a year longer (2006), but they are about the same age (8 months apart) and came up with the Dodgers.

It's interesting that Vizcaino stuck longer, because he couldn't hit. While Offerman managed a slightly-below average OPS+ of 94 with several years over 100, Vizcaino comes in with a 75.

Here are some basic stats:

Player     R   2b  3b  Hr  RBI  SB  OBP  SLG
Vizcaino  633 204  47  36  480  74 .318 .346  
Offerman  840 252  72  57  537 172 .360 .373

Baseball-reference.com does not show Vizcaino and Offerman as being on each other's Top 10 most similar list. Vizcaino is most similar to Tito Fuentes, Bobby Richardson, Scott Fletcher, Rafael Ramirez, etc. Offerman is most similar to Lonny Frey, Phil Rizzuto and Delino DeShields. One player, however, shows up on both top 10 lists: Tommy Herr.

Wait, did I say Frey and Rizzuto? Rizzuto is in the Hall of Fame. Frey is a borderline HoFer (although if Rizzuto is in, Frey ought to be). In no way should this be the basis for an argument that Offerman is a Hall of Famer.

So was it defense that allowed Vizcaino to stick longer, or luck? Vizcaino had fewer errors than most shortstops, but had average range. Offerman made a ton of errors (a whopping 42 in 1992), but had better range. BP thinks Offerman cost his team 76 more runs than an average shorstop, though he saved 136 more runs than a replacement level shortstop. Vizcaino saved 34 more runs than an average shortstop and 235 more than a replacement level shortstop.

Despite the huge gap in batting prowess, Vizcaino made up some ground with better defense. Offerman achieved a WARP3 of 46.9 and Vizcaino a 38.6. That's 10 wins Offerman provided that Vizcaino did not.

What it indicates is that when a bad hitting shortstop like Vizcaino gets older, if he can still play decent defense, he'll have a spot, because his hitting really can't get any worse. Offerman, on the other hand, who depended primarily on his bat, could not afford the hitting dropoff that comes with age. He had no defense to fall back on.

I'm not sure he has any defenses to fall back on in this latest incident either.

Jenks' Streak

There was some interesting information in the San Francisco Chronicle this morning about Jenks' streak of 41 consecutively retired batters. He is now tied with Jim Barr.

Barr was a pitcher for the Giants in the '70s and early 80s. By most accounts he was pretty average, though he had some very good seasons...1972 being one of them. He finished in the top 10 in ERA three times during his career.

Barr is actually rooting for Jenks. Barr is a coach at Sacramento State, and says the attention from the streak can be used as a teaching tool. Barr says "I've always thought walks were just....they're uncalled for. I turn to my pitchers and go 'See you can do it. You don't have to walk anybody.'"

Barr achieved the streak as a starter. He said when it happened, he didn't even know it was a record. He just knew he had pitched two really good games in a row...both complete game shutouts. In the first he had to contend with the likes of Stargell, Clemente and Hebner. Stargell had an early hit off of him just before the streak started. In the second game he had to deal with Torre, Simmons and Brock.

Without the media coverage to jump on every statistical record imaginable, there was no hype. Cardinals' broadcaster Jack Buck is the one that told him it was a record in a post-game interview.

The Chronicle asked if Barr thought it was easier for a reliever to get the streak than a starter. Barr was generous. He said he thought starters had an advantage because they can get into a rhythm. Also, he said Jenks is used in more high pressure situations, making it tougher for him. That's nice, because he could have said "Hell yeah it's easier to get three guys out at a time over a couple of weeks. They never see your stuff twice. You never get tired."

But he didn't say that. Gracious.

Giants-centric

I'm still in San Francisco, so I'm paying more-than-normal attention to the Giants. I'm sure that will end soon.

Rajai Davis

After attending the game Friday night, I mentioned he was the most exciting player on the field. The Giants gave another dismal performance in the first game of the double-header last night, and just when it looked like they'd be swept by the Pirates in a five game series(!), Davis woke them up.

He made one of the best catches of the year to ignite the spark. Then he led off the top of the inning with a single to center...wait, no, a double. Nate McLouth took his time getting to the ball and Davis took second. I don't know if he'll stick in the majors, but the guy is a disrupter.

The casual McLouth, by the way, is the guy who made the electric Davis expendable. Davis couldn't get any PT, despite McLouth putting up a .700 OPS in 244 games with Pittsburgh. McLouth looks like he's running in water compared to Davis, not because of raw speed, but because of attitude.

As I said, do the Pirates know something about Davis we don't? Is Davis smoking crack, or is Pirates GM Dave Littlefield?

Barry and Hank

The Giants are on their way to San Francisco to play the Braves at Turner Field. The address at Turner Field is 755 Hank Aaron Drive. Both Barry and Hank have said, essentially, "if we run into each other, then we'll talk." There's no formal meeting planned.

A lot of praise has been heaped on Aaron for the videotaped message played after Barry's 756th. It was a nice message, but as I mentioned before, it seemed a little too formal. The more I see it, the more I think it was a bit hollow.

Aaron has always been a nice guy. An under-the-radar guy. When I saw pre-756th quotes about Aaron not attending the game, I just assumed it was part of Hank's personality to stay out of the spotlight. I didn't buy the media story that he was somehow boycotting Bonds because of the steroids scandal. I thought, after all Aaron went through when he set the record, why would he find a way to make it tougher on Barry?

However, if Aaron does not try to find Barry to congratulate him when Barry is in Atlanta, where Aaron has an office, which is located at Turner Field, then my opinion of Aaron is going to sink a little. If he really means "I'm as happy for him as anybody," he can at least come downstairs and say "Congratulations."

Another Negative Game Score

A few weeks back I posted a list of the worst pitching game scores since 1957. This update is belated, but we've got to add Yovani Gallardo to the list, much to the dismay of my fantasy team.

I mentioned that Jon Garland's and Jason Jennings' respective -11 scores were the worst this year and tied for the 7th worst in history. Gallardo topped that with a -12.

For the record, that's 7 times this year we've had a negative game score. As I mentioned in the other post, if we hit 9 (which seems likely), it would comprise 10% of all the negative game scores in the last 50 years.

Ryan Thomas

One thing has troubled me since last year, when Ryan Howard was making a splash, which I resented for some reason. Is his nose actually bigger than Frank Thomas' nose?

I downloaded their pictures from MLB.com and blended them 50/50. Their heads are not the same size, so I had to manipulate the positioning a bit. I tried to match the top of their nostrils.

The resulting picture looks more like Howard than Thomas, but that's an optical illusion. It is 50/50. In fact, Howard is not smiling in his picture, but in this one, he has Thomas' smile, sort of, but retains the chin hair.

Anyway, my conclusion -- not evident from the picture...sorry -- is that Frank Thomas has an ever-so-slight lead in nose width, but because his nostrils are closed in the picture, and Howard's are open, Howard's nose seems bigger.

If I were a Blue Jay, or a Phillie, I wouldn't sit next to either guy for fear there would be a shortage of oxygen left over for me.

Here are the numbers. I measured from nostril to nostril width, measuring until the nostril cast a shadow on the rest of the face. We'll call than the oWidth.

I measured the height and width of the individual nostril based on the shadowed area within the nostril. We'll call that the nHeight and nWidth.

I also measured the height of the overall nose, measuring from the mid-point of the eyes to the bottom of the nostril shadow. That's the oHeight.

I don't have any profile shots of exactly the same size, so I can't calculate length and produce an overall area.

Thomas:
oWidth (26 pixels)
nHeight (1 pixel)
nWidth (7 pixels)
oHeight (16 pixels)

Howard:
oWidth (24 pixels)
nHeight (3 pixels)
nWidth (5 pixels)
oHeight (19 pixels)

Too close to call. For kicks, I also did Craig Counsell's numbers:

Counsell:
oWidth (16 pixels)
nHeight (2 pixels)
nWidth (4 pixels)
oHeight (20 pixels)

Can Webb Overtake Hershiser?

With 33 consecutive scoreless innings under his belt, Webb is inviting comparison's to Orel Hershiser's streak of 59 innings.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. To realize the magnitude of Hershiser's accomplishment, consider that Webb is barely past halfway to the record.

But for fun, let's compare the first four games of Webb's streak to the first four games of Hershiser's. Webb's streak actually began in the last inning of a game. Hershiser's streak actually began in the 6th inning of a game in which he pitched the distance. The data below for Webb and Hershiser includes the first four games they started after the streak began in those partial games.

PC is pitch count. GS is the average pitching game score using Bill James' methodology. RS is run support for the pitcher. And sOPS+ is the relative OPS+ plus for the opposing team, taking into account the team's home/road splits.

            IP   H   BB   K   PC   GS   RS   sOPS+
Webb        32   21   6   29  440  77   15     94
Hershiser   36   21   6   29  417  82    9     85

That's pretty interesting. Hershiser is more dominant, having thrown 4 complete games and achieving a higher average game score as a result. But 1988 was a different era. While complete games were waning, they were still more prevalent at that time. In 1988, nearly 14% of games were complete games. In 2007 so far, only 2% are complete games. Can't really ding Webb for that.

What's amazing is that they have the exact same number of hits, walks and strikeouts, albeit in a different number of IP. Hershiser was more efficient, throwing 6 fewer pitches a game. Webb also has gotten better run support, though 8 of those runs came in one game.

I'm not sure if run support helps the streak or hurts it. Lots of run support might relax the pitcher. On the other hand, is relaxation good for a scoreless streak? I think probably not. Hershiser was the bulldog, and I think he thrived in those competitive scenarios.

The most interesting figure is the sOPS+ figure of the opponents. Hershiser's opponents were terrible at the plate, producing at only 85% of league average. Webb's are also poor at 94%, but not nearly as bad.

So although Hershiser's stats are slightly more dominant, some of the statistical diffference can be attributed to (1) the era when there were more complete games and (2) weaker competition.

To see how that bodes for Webb in his next three games, let's see what Hershiser did in his last two games of his streak.

            IP   H   BB   K   PC   GS   RS   sOPS+
Hershiser   19   9    3    5  228  82    3     94

He got tougher on baserunners, and maintained a high average game score (which isn't hurt by a 10 inning complete game). His competition was a little better...about where Webb's has been. But Hershiser's pitch count per game rose by 10 pitches a game and his strikeout rate plummeted. Perhaps that's the quality of the competition kicking in. Interestingly, his run support continued to be horrible.

Webb's going to need at least three games to reach Hershiser's record. If the rotation holds up, he'll be at Atlanta, home against Milwaukee and at San Diego. Their average sOPS+ (as of now) is 93, but that's a deceiving number brought down by San Diego's 76 at home. Atlanta has a 100 at home and Milwaukee a 104 on the road.

To the extent run support is a factor, Webb might have an advantage. Atlanta, Milwaukee and San Diego (especially) have some quality starters that may keep the games close.

But until he gets past Atlanta and Milwaukee, it will be hard to convince me that something is better than Orel.

Tampa Bay Devil Flays

It never seems to get better in Tampa. With a crop of good young position players and at least a couple of potential arms, some of us thought Tampa might get within spitting distance of .500 this year. But as the season wears on, it's getting worse and worse.

I live in Florida, and I like watching the Devil Rays. I'm not invested enough to get my feelings hurt when they lose. It's just fun to watch Crawford and Upton and Young and Harris. But with Pittsburgh's recent victories over SF, Tampa Bay once again has the worst record in baseball.

They are the only team in the AL to not draw 1,000,000 in attendance so far, averaging about 4,000 a game fewer than Kansas City, despite Tampa/St. Petersburg being a much bigger metropolitan area than KC. Maybe this is a Florida phenomenon, because the Marlins are the only NL team under 1,000,000, trailing Pittsburgh by about 5,000 a game.

Florida is a better team than Tampa, but there are some other parallels. Both teams have the lowest fielding percentage in their respective leagues, and both have the worst defense efficiency rating in their leagues (Tampa is the worst in baseball).

Tampa's hitting is about average in the AL. Their pitching is dead last, with a team ERA over 6.00, and almost 7.00 on the road! Of course, with the worst defensive efficiency rating, that can be expected. The Devil Rays have always had horrible pitching.

Florida, on the other hand, was expected to be a pretty solid pitching team behind Dontrelle, Scott Olsen, Josh Johnson, Sergio Mitre and Anabel Sanchez. Instead, they are fourth in the league in hitting (judged by runs scored) and last in runs allowed. Again, defense is a factor here, because they are 11th in ERA, but last in runs allowed.

I bet a majority of baseball fans can't name three players on the Devil Rays (or maybe even two). You know how many all-stars the Devil Rays have had in the last 8 years? Eight. The minimum. In their 10 year existence, they've had 11 All-Stars. (Kansas City is next on the list with 12 in that time period, followed by Pittsburgh. Florida has had 22 in those 10 years).

It wouldn't surprise me if the casual fan was unaware the Devil Rays even exist.

Florida will bounce back, like they always do. Tampa has nothing to bounce back to. Are they nearing Expos territory?

My Trip to AT&T in San Francisco

Just back from the Giants/Pirates game. Here are some notes:

1. Rajai Davis is the most exciting player on the field. He's fast, he had a single, double and triple, and is already a fan favorite.

2. Whatever Matt Morris had in St. Louis, he does not have it now. He threw more balls than strikes. Even worse, he looked miserable. Maybe pitching for Pittsburgh and returning to your former team is depressing, but he ought to be showing a little more life on the mound. This was a horrible trade for Pittsburgh. They must know something about Davis that we don't.

3. Omar Vizquel can't hit anymore, but he executed a beautiful first-pitch squeeze down the third base line to score Davis after his triple.

4. Ray Durham uses a different bat, depending on which side he swings from. With a righty on the mound, he approached the plate with a black bat. When Jim Tracy replaced the pitcher with a lefty, Durham went into the dugout and traded the black bat for a blonde one.

5. The screen behind home plate at AT&T park is only about 15 feet high, meaning fans behind the plate have a better chance of catching foul balls.

6. Some of the seats at AT&T are actually closer to the batter than the pitcher is.

7. Although I missed the record-setting homer by 3 games, Barry went deep in his second at bat. I have a blurry picture, because the lady next to me bumped me while cheering.

Still, seeing #758 is better than seeing none at all. If I present my ticket at a Giants Dugout store tomorrow after 10:00 a.m., I get a commemorative pin with #758 on it.

8. Xavier Nady reached first on a Ray Durham error, making him the go-ahead run in the top of the 8th. Jim Tracy replaced him with a pinch runner. Good strategy, right? Eh, he replaced him with Ian Snell. Snell is certainly a more capable baserunner, but he's also the #2 guy in the pitching rotation and is a young prospect. I realize even losing teams still play to win, but is it really worth the injury risk to one of your young starters? It isn't like Pittsburgh's system is so full of talent it can afford to lose one. Plus, McLouth doubled to send Snell to third, meaning the runner would have reached third no matter who he was.

9. If you are a fantasy owner and have Brad Hennessey, check the news tomorrow. He only threw a dozen or so pitches, but when the inning was over and he was walking towards the dugout, he was shaking his right arm and holding it in an awkward position. He looked uncomfortable.

10. Other than Bonds and Davis (and Jason Bay if he turns it around), this was a collection of the weakest hitters and pitchers you can have in a major league game. Two of the better hitters on the rosters, Randy Winn and Xavier Nady, did not start.

11. A draft beer (domestic) is $7. A Guinness is $9.

12. There's a mini-AT&T park in left field, complete with mini-Jumbotron. Kids under a certain height go in and swing at underhand pitches, and run the bases if they make contact. It's pretty cool.

13. Sum total of kayakers: two, and I think they might have been Giants security personnel.

Cleveland's Hall of Fame Heritage

The Indians will be wearing #14 today, to honor Larry Doby. That's great, although it might upset Peter Bjarkman that they aren't wearing Clemente's number. :)

It is happening in conjuction with Hall of Fame Heritage weekend in Cleveland. At first I thought the Doby event would be watered down by the names of those being inducted into the Cleveland Indians Hall of Fame: Charles Nagy, Andre Thornton, Mike Garcia and Jim Bagby Sr. But to be fair, I decided to look at them individually.

Charles Nagy was essentially a major league average pitcher. He had some all-star quality seasons in 92, 94 and 96, but take those seasons away and there isn't much to say. He did pitch in Cleveland for 12 seasons. More importantly, he pitched for Cleveland during their ascendancy from decades-long doormats to frequent contenders. I think he is a borderline pick for a team Hall of Fame, but he may have a special relationship with Clevelanders.

Thornton was a good hitter in his day. Not an incredible hitter, considering he was penciled in as DH more than any other spot, just ahead of his games at 1b. But good. He spent 10 seasons in Cleveland. This selection makes sense to me for a team Hall of Fame, though he would probably not make even a Hall of the Very Good on a baseball-wide scale.

Mike Garcia is a much stronger case. He spent 12 seasons in Cleveland and until age got him, was one of the best pitchers in the American League. He has an almost .600 win percentage. Easily a team Hall of Famer. He was on the '54 pennant team. The only surprise is that it took this long. He retired 36 years ago, and I'm betting that Early Wynn, Bob Feller and Bob Lemon (his teammates in '54) are already in the team Hall of Fame (not to mention Cooperstown, with another '54 teammate, Hal Newhouser). Doby was on that team too.

Jim Bagby, Sr. pitched for 9 years in the bigs, from 1912 to 1923. Seven of those years were with Cleveland. Based on his stats, he appears to have been a pretty good pitcher, but not for very long. He had two or three all-star caliber seasons. His best was in 1917, when he had an ERA under 2.00 over nearly 321 innings and won 23 games. Of course, the league was a bit watered down by World War I, so he may have been preying on weak hitters. Not a strong selection.

All in all, I guess it isn't as bad as I first thought. Garcia is an excellent pick, Thornton a good pick, and Nagy and Bagby, Sr. just so so. I guess they couldn't use Manny, or Thome, or Lofton, since they are all playing for other teams. Albert Belle ought to be in there, but I bet that would be an unpopular decision.

I wonder, though, if Mike Hargrove is in the Indians Hall of Fame. I couldn't find a list of Indians Hall of Famers on their web site, though there was an alphabetical list of the 100 greatest Indians. All of the players named in this post are on the Top 100 list.

If Hargrove isn't in the Indians Hall of Fame, he should be -- both as a manager and a player -- and he probably needs the emotional boost.

Ankiel

You've got to admire this guy. A pitching phenom at age 19 and 20, he got the yips and had control problems that made Ricky "Wild Thing" Vaughn look like Greg Maddux. He tried to make a comeback in 2004, but only managed 10 uneventful innings. His last appearance was October 1, 2004, and he got the win, pitching four innings in relief. He had two plate appearances that year.

Nearly three years later, he was back in the lineup as an outfielder, and hit a homer in his 4th at-bat (after two strikeouts). That's truly a feel good story. It takes a hell of a lot of talent to reach the majors and be a better-than-average pitcher, and then re-reach the majors as a position player. Imagine the perseverance it takes to do that. To want something that badly.

How good was it? Tony LaRussa smiled. :)

Bonds Winks

Who was Bonds winking to after he hit the home run? After he scored, Barry turned back towards home plate, and I saw Nationals' catcher Brian Schneider applauding in the background. Bonds gave his Andre Agassi-like salute to the crowd, then turned towards home plate, pointed, and winked. I saw it on t.v. live, and I've watched the replay three times. He was not pointing into the dugout, or the crowd.

That's strange. Schneider has never been Barry's teammate. I'm not saying this happened, but the thought flashed through my mind that Schneider could have tipped the pitch. Of course, the pitch was so fat Barry didn't need a tip.

The other strange thing -- in contrast to what I remember about McGwire's record setting home run -- was that when Barry's son hugged him at the plate, Barry did not hug back. He stood with his arms over his head, and then turned back towards the dugout. It was like his son was hugging a tree. McGwire -- who I never liked -- was genuinely caught up in the moment with his boy. Barry did have warm hugs for his daughter, mom and wife, though. Maybe he was too distracted by the event.

ESPN Is Like A Soft Drink

When you use it everyday, it seems like it is really really good. But take a year off and then try it. Horrible. Sugary sweet.

I was in a sub shop and SportsCenter was on, with what could only be called massively repetitive coverage of Bonds' home run. Scott Somebodyorother tossed it out to Pedro Gomez, whom Scott told us has been living at AT&T Park for the last 3 months covering this story. Having exhausted every other possibility, Scott asked Pedro for his insight on the home run.

Gomez said what stuck out in his mind was Bonds' response to a question at the press conference. Someone asked Bonds whether he had any advice for the public in determining who the real Barry Bonds is. Bonds said "Don't listen to you guys," referring to the media. Some members of the media chuckled. Gomez was not amused. He said if Barry has a bad image, it is his fault, not the media's fault. He explained that the media just presents it the way it is. It isn't the media's job to make Barry's image. It is Barry's job to make his own image.

I'm not sure what to make of that. Gomez is saying one of two things: (1) the media reports everything with a 100% objective view; what you see is the "true reality" or (2) sure we distort the hell out of things, but it's Barry's job to manipulate us so that his image is not tarnished.

I believe Gomez was saying the first. That's incredibly naive, even for a reporter who tries/hopes to report things objectively. I'm not suggesting Gomez distorts reality, but to say the media is merely showing us the world as it is means that he doesn't understand the media. ESPN is a business, designed to make money, and the more titillating the story, the better the ratings. That's reality!

Suppose the reporters crowd around Barry's locker and he says "Get the hell away from me. I want to be with my kids right now." Does that make Barry an asshole? Because he doesn't want to talk to someone at ESPN? As if he has an obligation to let them make money off his story.

Do I think Barry is a jerk? Yes. But consider why I might think that. My only access to Barry is through what I see on television and read on the Internet. I'm willing to acknowledge that I don't really know if he is a jerk because it is filtered through the media. Funny that Pedro Gomez can't acknowledge that.

Here's the sugary sweet part of the report. After about 30 seconds of Pedro Gomez "reporting," Scott then says "I'm not in charge of scheduling, but GO HOME! Get some rest! You deserve it." Am I supposed to enjoy this office talk between the two ESPN guys? Why is that on the air? I find it difficult to believe Gomez is completely worn out because he has to watch baseball every day and report for 60 seconds on Barry Bonds. 90% of the country is working harder than he is. But even if he is pulling all nighters, so what? He's handsomely paid to do his job. I don't feel sorry for him.

It has become a real pet peeve of mine when the news/sports anchor thanks a reporter for his hard work, or otherwise engages in a personal conversation with the reporter. That's not part of the news. The reporter's job is to report. Why must the anchor, another paid member of the same organization, thank him for doing his job -- and thank him on the air?

Pitcher Predictions -- Results

The refinements to the Predict-A-Matic seem to work better. Or I'm just lucky.

Pitchers        IP  Hits  HR BB  SO  ER 4+Runs 5+Runs 
Wakefield (BOS) 6.1   6   0   2   3   2  23%    12%
                4.0   6   0   2   2   2  Grade: A-
Saunders (LAA)  5.1   7   0   3   3   3  36%    24%
                5.1   8   1   1   2   4  Grade: A
                

Bonser (MIN)    5.2   6   0   2   6   3  30%    16%
                7.0   9   0   0   3   4  Grade: B-
Bannister (KCR) 5.2   7   0   2   2   2  24%    14%
                7.0   6   0   1   1   1  Grade: A

Weaver (SEA)    5.1   7   0   1   2   2  28%    15%
                6.0  11   0   0   3   3  Grade: B+
Trachsel (BAL)  5.2   6   0   2   1   2  26%    15%
                5.2   8   1   3   1   2  Grade: A

Hammel (TBD)    5.2   9   0   6   5   6  75%    62%
                4.0  10   0   1   3   5  Grade: A-
Robertson (DET) 5.2   7   1   2   4   3  37%    23%
                7.2   9   1   0   9   3  Grade: C

Capuano (MIL)   5.1   6   0   2   6   3  32%    20%
                5.0   7   1   3   3   4  Grade: B
Hirsh (COL)     5.2   7   2   2   4   4  49%    32%
                6.0   3   0   2   2   2  Grade: C
 
Peavy (SDP)     6.2   5   0   1   6   1   7%     3%
                6.0   3   0   2   5   0  Grade: A
Reyes (STL)     5.1   6   1   2   4   3  31%    17%
                7.0   7   0   1   2   1  Grade: C

VandenHurk (FLA)4.1   5   2   2   5   4  55%    37%
                2.1   5   0   5   1   6  Grade: B-
Moyer (PHI)     6.0   7   2   1   6   4  48%    31%
                6.0   5   1   3   5   1  Grade: C

Bacsik (WSN)    5.1   7   0   2   1   3  36%    22%
                5.0   7   2   1   5   5  Grade: B-
Zito (SFG)      6.0   6   0   2   4   2  27%    15%
                5.0   6   3   3   2   4  Grade: C

Overall Grade: B

Hank Aaron

Aaron's scoreboard video message was nice, though a little too scripted, which made the presentation seem awkward. But the words were nice, and respectful, as you would expect from Aaron.

It was nice to see Barry get an incredible reception from the home crowd, but Aaron's message really dignified the event.

I'm sad to see Aaron's record fall. I strongly recommend his biography, "I Had A Hammer."

Bonds

It was a bomb.

Bacsik and Bonds both knew it instantly.

Bonds vs. Aaron...in a different way

I was watching Tim Lincecum bat (not pretty) and they showed Bonds sitting in the dugout chewing sunflower seeds. I wondered whether he saw a guy like Lincecum at the plate and laughed, or whether he has seen so much that it really doesn't affect him. Somehow, that segued into me wondering whether Barry ever sat in the dugout and enjoyed a teammate's at-bat, and from there, whether Barry every really played with any hitter he could admire. Only Jeff Kent immediately came to mind, and more slowly, Bobby Bonilla.

I decided to make a chart of the best players Barry played with as a teammate, with the same for Hank Aaron. I had the impression that neither player had a lot of talent surrounding him. I've ranked them based on nothing more than my own impressions...I have not verified the rankings via Win Shares, WARP or any other system.

Hitter List

#     Bonds             Aaron
1.    W.Clark           Mathews
2.    Kent              J. Torre
3.    Strawberry        Cepeda 
4.    E. Davis          Adcock 
5.    M. Alou           D. Baker
6.    Bonilla           Slaughter 
7.    K. Gibson         D. Evans 
8.    Burks             F. Alou 
9.    M. Williams       Carty 
10.   Van Slyke         B. Thomson
11.   Galarraga         D. Johnson

Pitcher List

#     Bonds             Aaron
1.    R. Reuschel       Spahn
2.    Nen               P. Niekro
3.    Hershiser         Wilhelm
4.    Nathan            Pappas
5.    R. Beck           S. Miller
6.    Righetti          Antonelli
7.    Reuss

Fielder List

#     Bonds             Aaron
1.    Vizquel           Schoendienst
2.    J.T. Snow         McMillan
3.    D. Lewis          Logan
4.    Grissom

Barry's hitting teammate list is a little better than expected. Still, there's only one probable Hall of Famer (Kent) and a couple of borderline guys (Clark and Vizquel), one of whom is there for defense alone. Nobody for Barry to "admire" since he and Kent didn't do a lot of admiring of each other. Barry's pitching teammates were not impressive, although Nen and Nathan were/are outstanding.

Aaron's hitting list is much better. Mathews is one of the best hitters in history and Slaughter is also in the Hall of Fame. Torre and Cepeda probably should be. Many have also argued for Darrell Evans' inclusion. Until you get to #9 on the list, Barry's teammates don't win the battle.

Aaron also wins the pitching list, with three bona fide Hall of Famers. I'd say Aaron's teammates win 1 through 6. Barry's defensive stalwarts might be better, though this could be because I'm less familiar with the defensive reputation of players in the 50s and 60s.

Interesting side note: Aaron played with a ton of future managers: Torre, LaRussa, Oates, Davey Johnson, Dusty Baker, Felipe Alou, Gaston, Dark, Deron Johnson, Billy Martin, Joe Morgan, Red Schoendienst and Chuck Tanner, as well as two of the most prominent hitting coaches in the last 30 years, Charlie Lau and Walt Hriniak (neither of whom could hit). And those are the just the guys whose names I recognized as managers.

Glavine Update

My prediction was wrong and Glavine got 300 before Barry gets his record. That's one prediction I don't mind getting wrong.

Only five lefties in history!

Roberto Clemente

In the latest issue of the SABR publication "The National Pastime," Peter C. Bjarkman makes an impassioned plea that Roberto Clemente should be accorded the same respect as Jackie Robinson for paving the way for Latino ballplayers.

Put aside for a moment the validity of that premise, which is easily challenged just by reading the article. As the article points out, Clemente was not the first (or second) Latin ballplayer, or even the first Latino all-star.

More troubling is that Bjarkman spends almost as much time depressing Robinson's on-field accomplishments as he does promoting Clemente's. About Robinson he says, "a 10-year .311 career batting average, barely1,500 base hits, less than 150 homers, a single league batting trophy and a half dozen All-Star game appearance [sic] hardly seem the key to Cooperstown." (emphasis added by me). The language is peppered with negativity.

Robinson, of course, also played in the Negro Leagues and he didn't reach the majors until he was 28 years old. Clemente hit the bigs at age 21.

I may be wrong, but in addition to Clemente being hispanic, isn't his skin black? Would Clemente have had a roster spot if not for Robinson, Larry Doby and the like? Did Clemente play under the same conditions as Jackie? Bad as they were for Roberto, they were much much worse for Jackie and Larry.

Bjarkman later says MLB has diminished the game's Latino heritage through its Latino Legends All-Star Team. Here, I agree, but not for the reasons stated in the article. See my post in 2005 on this topic. Bjarkman says MLB slighted "legitimate Hall of Famers" Tony Perez and Orlando Cepeda, in favor of "contemporary favorites" Vladimir Guerrero and Manny Ramirez.

First, it isn't a slam dunk that Tony Perez and Orlando Cepeda are Hall of Famers. Perez' OPS+ was 122. Hitting 22% better than the league average when you are at first base is not such a big deal. Cepeda's claim is stronger with an OPS+ of 133.

Guerrero? OPS+ of 148. Ramirez? OPS+ of 156!

Don't like OPS+? Here are their WARP numbers per 162 games from Baseball Prospectus: Perez (6.31); Orlando Cepeda (6.70); Vlad Guerrero (8.59); Manny Ramirez (9.78). Clemente, by the way, had 8.44 -- though I'm not arguing that Vlad or Manny have the same impact as Roberto.

In total WARP, the totals favor Ramirez, Perez, Guerrero and Cepeda, in that order. But remember, Ramirez and Guerrero are still playing. Vlad is only 31 years old. He's not done. Vlad and Manny are among the very best hitters of their generation, much more so than Perez and Cepeda.

I'm not sure if Clemente should have his number permanently retired a la Jackie, but I'm sure it isn't going to happen by trying to elevate him over Jackie, or by touting Perez and Cepeda as superior to Guerrero and Ramirez.

Is MLB really slighting Clemente by not putting him on the same level as Robinson? The Hall of Fame is for great players, and Clemente unquestionably belongs. Why isn't that enough?

What would you do with the 756th?

Though I live in Jacksonville, Florida, I happen to have a ticket to the August 10th game in San Francisco. I had a business trip scheduled, and wanted to see the park. It never occurred to me that Bonds would still be chasing the record.

There is NO chance I'll catch his home run ball. I'm sitting a few rows up from the home dugout. If I'm lucky I'll get a pop up.

There's no question in my mind, though, that if the ball came into my possession, it would belong to the Hall of Fame. I don't much like Barry Bonds, but that's not the point. Not everything has to fall prey to shameless commercialism.

Good for Morgan Ensberg

Two homers in his Padre debut. Take that, Houston!

Pitcher Prediction Evaluation

Pretty awful, but there were some very weird things going on today. Outlier performances are those performances that have less than a 15% chance of occurring. There were lots of those today. Outlier performances cannot be predicted.

Texas @ Cleveland

Pitcher    IP   H   HR   BB   SO   ER  5+Run%
Gabbard    4.1  5   1    4    4    4    38%
           5.2  8   0    1    4    3    Grade: D 
Westbrook  5.2  6   0    2    4    2    13%
           6.0  5   0    1    5    0    Grade: C

St. Louis @ Pittsburgh

Pitcher    IP   H   HR   BB   SO   ER  5+Run%
Reyes      5.1  6   0    2    4    2    13%
           5.0  4   0    3    4    3    Grade: B+
Youman     6.0  7   0    1    2    2    12%
           5.0  5   0    3    3    3    Grade: C

Baltimore @ Boston

Pitcher    IP   H   HR   BB   SO   ER  5+Run%
Guthrie    6.2  6   1    2    5    2    15%
           5.1  9   2    4    3    3    Grade: D
Wakefield  6.0  7   0    2    3    3    21%
           7.0  6   0    1    5    3    Grade: B-

Chicago (AL) @ New York (AL)

Pitcher    IP   H   HR   BB   SO   ER  5+Run%
Garland    6.1  7   0    2    2    3    21%
           1.1  9   1    0    1    8    Grade: F/outlier
Clemens    6.1  6   0    1    4    2     6%
           1.2  9   0    0    0    3    Grade: outlier
                 (38 pitches)

New York (NL) @ Milwaukee

Pitcher    IP   H   HR   BB   SO   ER  5+Run%
Lawrence   6.1  7   1    2    4    3    24%
           5.0  8   1    0    3    3    Grade: C
Capuano    5.2  6   0    2    4    3    12%
           6.0 10   2    1    8    5    Grade: outlier
                 (5 ER "<" 12%)

Philadelphia @ Chicago (NL)

Pitcher    IP   H   HR   BB   SO   ER  5+Run%
Lohse      6.0  7   0    2    4    3    26%
           1.0  2   0    1    0    1    Grade: outlier
                 (left with injury)
Marshall   5.2  5   0    2    4    2    13%
           2.2  9   1    1    2    7    Grade: outlier
                 (7 ER "<" 1%)

Arizona @ San Diego

Pitcher    IP   H   HR   BB   SO   ER  5+Run%
Petit      5.1  6   1    1    4    3    16%
           4.1  5   2    4    4    5    Grade: F
Peavy      6.2  5   0    2    8    2     7%
           7.0  3   0    1   10    0    Grade: B

Cincinnati @ Washington

Pitcher    IP   H   HR   BB   SO   ER  5+Run%
Dumatrait  5.2  7   0    2    3    3    22%
           3.1  8   0    3    3    6    Grade: D
Bacsik     5.2  7   1    1    2    3    25%
           7.0  3   2    0    6    3    Grade: F

Colorado @ Florida

Pitcher    IP   H   HR   BB   SO   ER  5+Run%
Hirsh      5.2  6   1    2    6    3    23%
           5.1  6   2    4    8    3    Grade: A-
VandenHurk 4.2  6   0    3    5    3    25%
           4.1  4   0    3    5    2    Grade: A

Houston @ Atlanta

Pitcher    IP   H   HR   BB   SO   ER  5+Run%
Williams   5.2  7   1    2    3    3    28%
           5.0 13   2    0    2    7    Grade: C-
Reyes      4.2  5   1    2    1    3    20%
           3.0  4   2    4    1    4    Grade: C-

Los Angeles (AL) @ Oakland

Pitcher    IP   H   HR   BB   SO   ER  5+Run%
Saunders   6.0  6   0    2    3    2    12%
           6.2  6   1    2    3    2    Grade: A
Gaudin     5.2  6   0    3    3    2    15%
           6.0  7   2    3    3    5    Grade: C-/outlier

San Francisco @ Los Angeles (NL)

Pitcher    IP   H   HR   BB   SO   ER  5+Run%
Zito       5.2  6   0    3    4    2    15%
           5.2  7   0    2    5    1    Grade: A
Tomko      6.0  8   0    3    4    4    35%
           5.0  5   0    3    1    3    Grade: B

Team Winners (Grade: D):
CLE(Y), PIT(Y), BAL(N), NYY(N), MIL(N), CHN(N), SD(Y), CIN(N), COL(N), HOU(Y), LAA(Y), SF(Y)

Overall grade: C

500 HR, 300 Wins or 755 HR?

Which is the toughest? I don't mean which is the toughest to achieve in a career. That's obvious.

I mean, if you are Rodriguez at 499, Glavine at 299 or Bonds at 754, how hard is it to get that one extra notch?

I'd say Rodriguez has it easiest. He's the youngest. He's going to get #500 and may eventually get 755. It's just a matter of time for him. He ought to take the same approach at the plate as always. It's a great accomplishment, but it will pale in comparison to other records he will eventually achieve.

Bonds has more media scrutiny, by far, and he's also the one of this group that is least likely to have fan support for his effort. That's some serious pressure. That pressure increases in San Francisco, because he wants to hit it for the home fans. But, like Alex, Barry's going to hit at least one home run before its over. He is going to break the record. So it's tougher for him than Rodriguez.

But I'd argue Glavine has it the toughest. Of the three, his skills have declined the most. He's hanging on as a 4th starter. In addition, he has less control over the situation. He can pitch great and get no run support. His defense can let him down, etc. It is likely he'll get the win, but it is possible that he strings together a bunch of no decisions or losses. The risk of injury is also higher for a pitcher.

I predict they happen in that order: Rodriguez to 500; Bonds to 755; Glavine to 300.

More Genius from ESPN

Watching the Mets/Brewers contest, the ESPN team was talking about the brilliance of John Schuerholz in making deals. No denying that as a general principle.

Steve Phillips cited the Teixeira deal, saying Schuerholz was able to land the biggest catch "without even giving up a major leaguer." Then, realizing the error, he corrected by saying "except Saltalamacchia, but he's a new major leaguer. Otherwise, just prospects."

Just prospects? Unless you are the Yankees or Red Sox, prospects are the heart of the organization. It is debatable whether Salty and the prospects for Teixeira is a good deal or not for the Braves, but even if it is, Teixeira was not stolen for mere prospects. Salty will probably be one of the 3 best catchers in the AL by next year, and that's nothing to sneeze at. If one of the five prospects becomes an average major leaguer, Texas will come out ahead, considering Teixeira's contract.

There's plenty of analysis of this trade elsewhere, and I won't rehash the arguments. But it is idiotic to act as though giving up prospects is like getting a superstar for free.

The scariest thing is that Steve Phillips was a general manager! Perhaps that's why he's broadcasting now.