Thursday, August 02, 2007

Pitcher Prediction Evaluation

Pretty awful, but there were some very weird things going on today. Outlier performances are those performances that have less than a 15% chance of occurring. There were lots of those today. Outlier performances cannot be predicted.

Texas @ Cleveland

Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Gabbard 4.1 5 1 4 4 4 38%
5.2 8 0 1 4 3 Grade: D
Westbrook 5.2 6 0 2 4 2 13%
6.0 5 0 1 5 0 Grade: C

St. Louis @ Pittsburgh

Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Reyes 5.1 6 0 2 4 2 13%
5.0 4 0 3 4 3 Grade: B+
Youman 6.0 7 0 1 2 2 12%
5.0 5 0 3 3 3 Grade: C

Baltimore @ Boston

Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Guthrie 6.2 6 1 2 5 2 15%
5.1 9 2 4 3 3 Grade: D
Wakefield 6.0 7 0 2 3 3 21%
7.0 6 0 1 5 3 Grade: B-

Chicago (AL) @ New York (AL)

Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Garland 6.1 7 0 2 2 3 21%
1.1 9 1 0 1 8 Grade: F/outlier
Clemens 6.1 6 0 1 4 2 6%
1.2 9 0 0 0 3 Grade: outlier
(38 pitches)

New York (NL) @ Milwaukee

Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Lawrence 6.1 7 1 2 4 3 24%
5.0 8 1 0 3 3 Grade: C
Capuano 5.2 6 0 2 4 3 12%
6.0 10 2 1 8 5 Grade: outlier
(5 ER "<" 12%)

Philadelphia @ Chicago (NL)

Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Lohse 6.0 7 0 2 4 3 26%
1.0 2 0 1 0 1 Grade: outlier
(left with injury)
Marshall 5.2 5 0 2 4 2 13%
2.2 9 1 1 2 7 Grade: outlier
(7 ER "<" 1%)

Arizona @ San Diego

Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Petit 5.1 6 1 1 4 3 16%
4.1 5 2 4 4 5 Grade: F
Peavy 6.2 5 0 2 8 2 7%
7.0 3 0 1 10 0 Grade: B

Cincinnati @ Washington

Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Dumatrait 5.2 7 0 2 3 3 22%
3.1 8 0 3 3 6 Grade: D
Bacsik 5.2 7 1 1 2 3 25%
7.0 3 2 0 6 3 Grade: F

Colorado @ Florida

Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Hirsh 5.2 6 1 2 6 3 23%
5.1 6 2 4 8 3 Grade: A-
VandenHurk 4.2 6 0 3 5 3 25%
4.1 4 0 3 5 2 Grade: A

Houston @ Atlanta

Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Williams 5.2 7 1 2 3 3 28%
5.0 13 2 0 2 7 Grade: C-
Reyes 4.2 5 1 2 1 3 20%
3.0 4 2 4 1 4 Grade: C-

Los Angeles (AL) @ Oakland

Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Saunders 6.0 6 0 2 3 2 12%
6.2 6 1 2 3 2 Grade: A
Gaudin 5.2 6 0 3 3 2 15%
6.0 7 2 3 3 5 Grade: C-/outlier

San Francisco @ Los Angeles (NL)

Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Zito 5.2 6 0 3 4 2 15%
5.2 7 0 2 5 1 Grade: A
Tomko 6.0 8 0 3 4 4 35%
5.0 5 0 3 1 3 Grade: B


Team Winners (Grade: D):
CLE(Y), PIT(Y), BAL(N), NYY(N), MIL(N), CHN(N), SD(Y), CIN(N), COL(N), HOU(Y), LAA(Y), SF(Y)

Overall grade: C