I was trying to conjure up Offerman's face (without Internet assistance) and I kept coming up with someone I think is Jose Vizcaino. It occurred to me that I never really distinguished the two, though I have a vague impression that Offerman was better. Didn't they both wear goggles at some point?
Vizcaino came up a year earlier (1989), and stuck a year longer (2006), but they are about the same age (8 months apart) and came up with the Dodgers.
It's interesting that Vizcaino stuck longer, because he couldn't hit. While Offerman managed a slightly-below average OPS+ of 94 with several years over 100, Vizcaino comes in with a 75.
Here are some basic stats:
Player R 2b 3b Hr RBI SB OBP SLG
Vizcaino 633 204 47 36 480 74 .318 .346
Offerman 840 252 72 57 537 172 .360 .373
Baseball-reference.com does not show Vizcaino and Offerman as being on each other's Top 10 most similar list. Vizcaino is most similar to Tito Fuentes, Bobby Richardson, Scott Fletcher, Rafael Ramirez, etc. Offerman is most similar to Lonny Frey, Phil Rizzuto and Delino DeShields. One player, however, shows up on both top 10 lists: Tommy Herr.
Wait, did I say Frey and Rizzuto? Rizzuto is in the Hall of Fame. Frey is a borderline HoFer (although if Rizzuto is in, Frey ought to be). In no way should this be the basis for an argument that Offerman is a Hall of Famer.
So was it defense that allowed Vizcaino to stick longer, or luck? Vizcaino had fewer errors than most shortstops, but had average range. Offerman made a ton of errors (a whopping 42 in 1992), but had better range. BP thinks Offerman cost his team 76 more runs than an average shorstop, though he saved 136 more runs than a replacement level shortstop. Vizcaino saved 34 more runs than an average shortstop and 235 more than a replacement level shortstop.
Despite the huge gap in batting prowess, Vizcaino made up some ground with better defense. Offerman achieved a WARP3 of 46.9 and Vizcaino a 38.6. That's 10 wins Offerman provided that Vizcaino did not.
What it indicates is that when a bad hitting shortstop like Vizcaino gets older, if he can still play decent defense, he'll have a spot, because his hitting really can't get any worse. Offerman, on the other hand, who depended primarily on his bat, could not afford the hitting dropoff that comes with age. He had no defense to fall back on.
I'm not sure he has any defenses to fall back on in this latest incident either.
