AL Gold Gloves: Catcher

Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates at catcher. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):

Catcher      FWS    FWAA
Suzuki      11.0     0.7
I-Rod        9.4     0.0
Mauer        9.2     0.7
J.Molina     9.1     1.8
Varitek      7.9     0.8
Navarro      7.3     2.2
Johjima      5.7     1.9

I'll assume for this post that an average fielding catcher would earn about 2.5 fielding win shares to get the composite score.

Wildly disparate results here. Suzuki has a huge lead in WS, followed by I-Rod and Mauer. The I-Rod rating is hard to believe, at his age. BP has Navarro at the top, followed by Molina. it sees Mauer and Suzuki as equal, and I-Rod as merely average.

Seems to me it has to come down to Molina and Navarro. Molina appears to have been better. I hate to give a GG to someone in a part time role, but if Molina saves more runs than Navarro, while playing half as often, shouldn't he be the guy?

Neither guy was a factor last year. Johjima beat Mauer. Johjima and Mauer don't deserve it this year, though I'd bet on Mauer getting the actual award.

How to decide? Last year Navarro was below average. Jose Molina last year was a positive defensive contributor, despite having almost NO playing time. He must be incredible. He's got the lineage. He gets my GG, followed by Navarro and Johjima.

Greg Zaun got the Iron last year. Since he can't hit, that's pretty bad. But he was average defensively this year. Not so Mike Napoli, who gets the Iron Glove. Ironic that the Angels are managed by one of the best defensive catchers of the 1980s. Scioscia ain't gonna care if Napoli keeps cranking 20 HR every 220 at bats. Get him 600 ABs and he'll lead the league in round trippers. Defense, shmeefense.

AL Gold Gloves: First Base

Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates at first base. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):

First base   FWS    FWAA
Overbay      3.8     1.9
Kotchman     3.0     1.2
Youkilis     2.8     0.3  (see note below on WS)
Pena         2.4     1.6
Millar       2.2     1.1

Last year I gave it to Youkilis, with Carlos Pena second in a nudge over Casey Kotchman. Kotchman got traded to the NL, but for my GG, he lands on the AL list.

I openly expressed distrust of WS at 1b, because Overbay and Matt Stairs were tied in WS, so I didn't trust the Overbay ranking. Like Delgado in the NL, here he is again. Every one of the guys on the list above was a contender last year too. I like that consistency.

Using the composite score method (see the NL Catcher's gold glove post), based on an average first baseman achieving 0.7 fielding win shares, Overbay easily wins, with Kotchman second. If we'd get rid of the stupid AL/NL distinction for stats purposes, they'd both win and Derrek Lee would have one less trophy.

Expect Youkilis or Pena to win the real one, since batting is always a factor. Pena would be the better choice. Youkilis played about 79% of his defensive time at 1b, so I had to prorate his WS.

Surprisingly, the Iron Glove last year almost went to Teixeira, who came close to a GG from me this year. But I gave the iron to Ryan Garko last year.

Garko improved a lot this year. Jason Giambi did not, and I thought he'd get the metal. But Miguel Cabrera outdistanced him in badness (and diet), so Miggy gets the Iron Glove.

NL Gold Gloves: First Base

Here are the NL Gold Glove candidates at first base. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):

First base   FWS    FWAA
Teixeira     2.8     1.0
D.Lee        2.7     1.7
Berkman      2.6     1.6
Delgado      2.4     0.9
A.Gonzalez   2.1     0.0
Pujols       2.1     1.4
Loney        2.0     0.0

I gave the Gold Glove to Pujols last year, with Helton finishing second. Derrek Lee was also a contender.

Derrek Lee is in his usual spot again, and we've otherwise got pretty much the same crew as last year, with Berkman and Loney added, and Helton off-list. Last year I was shocked that Delgado was a contender, but here he is again. Must not be a fluke.

For Gold Gloves, I'll place guys who split leagues in the league where they spent the most time. That means Teixeira's in the NL. He tops the WS list, but not FWAA.

Using the composite score method (see the NL Catcher's gold glove post), based on an average first baseman achieving 0.7 fielding win shares, Lee gets the hardware. Lance Berkman, he of the surprising athletic ability, finishes second.

Expect Lee to win it. No one is going to award a split league guy like Teixeira.

Last year's Iron Glove went to Dmitri Young. He didn't play enough this year. While my money would have been on the similarly sized Fielder, or Mike Jacobs, the Iron Glove goes to Adam LaRoche, who was pretty clearly the worst by these measures.

NL Gold Gloves: Catcher

Here are the NL Gold Glove candidates at catcher. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):

Catcher      FWS    FWAA
Kendall     11.9     1.7
B.Molina     9.2     0.9
Soto         9.0     0.6
Snyder       7.2     1.0
Y.Molina     6.6     1.1
Schneider    6.0     0.9
Iannetta     5.5     0.1
Ruiz         5.3     0.2
Martin       5.3     0.4

The most striking thing about this list is Jason Kendall at the top, and by a wide margin. Last year, he got my Iron Glove because he was terrible behind the plate, at least by these measures.

I'll assume for this post that an average fielding catcher would earn about 2.5 fielding win shares to get the composite score. But there's really no contest.

Last year, Yadier Molina edged out Chris Snyder and got my Gold Glove. This year the Gold Glove goes to last year's Iron Glove: Jason Kendall. Wow. Something isn't right about that, which isn't surprising since catcher defense is arguably unmeasurable. Benji comes in second.

Last year, Michael Barrett came in a close second for the Iron Glove. Fortunately for Barrett, he didn't play enough to qualify. (Yes, he would have won it again at his current pace). His teammate Josh Bard came close to 200 PAs, though. Maybe he should get it. But I give the Iron Glove to Washington's Jesus Flores. Even with 100 more PAs he wasn't as bad as Bard, but maybe Bard's sample size is too low? I'm being generous. At least Flores isn't a complete liability at the plate, like the San Diego contenders.

And maybe, just maybe, Flores will get the gold next year, just like Mr. Kendall.

AL and NL ROY

Last year I did these separately, but this year the choices seem so clear, I'm sticking them in one post. Last year's NL picks from me were: Braun, Tulowitzki, Gallardo, Lincecum and Loney. I did a detailed analysis of Braun and Tulo and chose Braun. It was a close call.

Last year's AL picks from me were: Dice-K, Pedroia, Bannister, Willits and Guthrie. (Wow, what happened to Willits?)

National League

Player       WS*   WARP**
Soto         24     4.3
Votto        20     5.3
Jurrjens     12     5.0
Kuroda       10     4.5

Very interesting that Soto comes in 4th among this group in WARP. Probably because of the defensive adjustment I make to the WARP score, which affects an important defensive player more than a first baseman or starting pitcher. WS sees it just the opposite.

I'll take them in the order listed above, with Soto nudging Votto. Soto was pretty consistent all year, and he's a catcher. Votto came on strong at the end, but was inconsistent earlier in the year.


American League

Player       WS*   WARP**
Longoria     20     6.4
Aviles       17     3.3
A. Ramirez   18     0.4
Chamberlain  10     4.3
Galarragga   14     5.9
Span         16     3.9
Masterson     8     3.9
Ellsbury     15     4.5
Ziegler      10     3.9

Well, BP doesn't like Ramirez much. Despite some good fantasy totals, he walked only 18 times in 500+ plate appearances, which pretty much makes him an out machine. BP also thinks his defense was bad. Could Kevin Kennedy have been wrong about him?

First place is easy, as expected. Longoria runs away with it. Galarraga, hidden on a bad Detroit team, comes in second, Ellsbury third and Denard Span is fourth. It will be interesting to see if BP is right about Ramirez. Ranked #2 in WS, but barely above replacement in WARP.

AL Cy Young

First, some traditional stats used in the Cy Young evaluation:

Pitcher       Wins   ERA    SO
C.Lee          22    2.54   170
Halladay       20    2.78   206
Lester         16    3.21   152
Matsuzaka      18    2.90   154
Danks          12    3.32   159
E. Santana     16    3.49   214
Saunders       17    3.41   103
Duchscherer    10    2.54    95
Baker          11    3.45   141
Greinke        13    3.47   183
Meche          14    3.98   183
Shields        14    3.56   160
Mussina        20    3.37   150

Although the top is very strong, it drops off veryquickly. You are probably wondering why Duchscherer made the list with only 10 wins and a half a season. See below. Really, however, this is between Lee and Halladay.

Pitcher       VORP    WS     WARP1
C.Lee         75.0    25      10.3
Halladay      71.5    23       9.7
Lester        58.2    19       7.8
Matsuzaka     50.6    17       7.7
Danks         52.8    17       8.4
E. Santana    50.3    19       7.3
Saunders      44.0    19       6.8
Duchscherer   46.1    14       6.4
Baker         44.4    13       5.4
Greinke       43.8    17       7.3
Meche         38.2    15       6.9
Shields       43.7    16       5.6
Mussina       43.1    18       8.5
Rivera        34.0    17      10.2 
K-Rod         22.3    12       7.5
Soria         30.1    15       7.6

These are ordered by VORP. Lee is the clear winner, with Halladay second.

Duchscherer is on the list because he is #8 in VORP. With half a season!

Danks' counting stats were not very impressive, but he fares well in all three of these uber-stats. Mussina gets a nostalgia point and gets #3, with Danks at #4. I don't entirely trust the uber-stats measurement of relievers, at least not on the same basis as the starters. Rivera comes in fifth.

Let this also be a lesson in counting stats for relievers -- particularly saves. K-Rod's "real" season was no big deal. In his own league Rivera, Soria and Nathan were better across the board.

AL MVP

Last year A-Rod was an easy choice, and I had Magglio and Carlos Pena second and third. A-Rod had a "down year" -- at least in A-Rod terms -- and there are a lot of contenders challenging him for the award.

Here are the Win Shares and their WARP1 scores from Baseball Prospectus for this year's candidates.

Player      WS*   WARP**
Guerrero    24    4.5
Teixeira    30    8.7
Huff        23    6.3
Roberts     21    5.0
Markakis    25    6.2
Pedroia     26    6.3
Youkilis    29    7.0
Bay         25    4.5
Quentin     24    6.2
Sizemore    28    5.4    
Granderson  21    5.2
Mauer       31    6.9
Morneau     29    7.3
A-Rod       25    7.2
Damon       25    5.0
Hamilton    27    5.7
Bradley     21    6.8
Kinsler     26    5.4
Cliff Lee   25   10.3
Halladay    23    9.7
M.Rivera    17   10.2 

*Source: The Hardball Times
**Source: Baseball Prospectus. I use FRAA, instead of FRAR, so the WARP1 number is converted. That hurts some players more than others. For instance, it takes 3.5 WARP away from Dustin Pedroia, since he is way better than replacement, but just a little above average.

The ones who stand out the most are pitchers, who are technically eligible, but from whom I shy away because of the Cy Young. Plus, these three pitchers didn't propel their teams to the playoffs, so it's easier to exclude them.

Most of the talk is about Pedroia and Youkilis, and to a lesser degree Mauer and Morneau. These latter two were talked about more before the playoffs started, and playoffs aren't supposed to matter, but that's the media for you. Josh Hamilton's gaudy RBI totals, and back story, will also get him a ton of votes.

And we've got a Manny parallel here, in Teixeira, except that Tex looks even better. Let's see how they do in the composite score, which I described in my NL Catcher's post, assuming the replacement WS for a player is 5.

Player       Composite
Teixeira        51.1
Cliff Lee       50.9
Halladay        47.1
Mauer           46.7
Morneau         45.9
Youkilis        45.0
M.Rivera        42.6
A-Rod           41.6
Pedroia         39.9
Sizemore        39.2
Hamilton        39.1
Markakis        38.6
Quentin         37.6
Kinsler         37.2
Huff            36.9
Bradley         36.4
Damon           35.0
Bay             33.5
Guerrero        32.5
Granderson      31.6
Roberts         31.0

Wow, where to start? First, Teixeira had a better year than any other player who finished in the AL. That's a dilemma. Then we've got two pitchers, and the Twins.

Frankly, I'm surprised how far down the list Pedroia is. Youkilis is more deserving from the same team. And I guess A-Rod wasn't as bad as I thought.

For those Hamilton supporters, he comes in #11 here. Why are his raw totals gaudy? Because two guys hitting in front of him are #14 and #16 on this list. That's quite an advantage. You also have to be impressed with #13 (Quentin) and #14 (Kinsler), who finished on this list despite missing more than a month at the end of the season.

So does it go to the guy who switched leagues (Tex), a pitcher (Lee) or the only non-pitcher at the top of the list who spent all year in the AL?

I want to go with Teixeira. Except, I bumped Manny down a spot in the NL rankings. Of course, that was easy to do because the choices were third or fourth. Here, Tex is first. But what if Tex started in the AL and went to the NL, and vice versa for Manny, each putting up the same numbers? Tex would be right about where Manny is on the NL list, and Manny would be about where Tex is on this list.

My award goes to Mauer, with Tex second, Youkilis third and Morneau fourth. Why Youkilis ahead of Morneau? It's not his batting stance, I can tell you that! I gave him a little extra for versatility, switching between 3b and 1b to account for Lowell's injuries.

NL Cy Young

I'll measure the NL Cy Young candidates by VORP and WARP (both from BP) and Win Shares. The latter two take into account hitting ability, so that could be important for a pitcher like Zambrano.

But first, some traditional stats used in the Cy Young evaluation:

Pitcher       Wins   ERA    SO
Webb            22  3.30    183
Lincecum        18  2.62    265
Sabathia        17  2.70    251
J.Santana       16  2.53    206
Dempster        17  2.96    187
Hamels          14  3.09    196
Haren           16  3.33    206
Billingsley     16  3.14    201
Oswalt          17  3.54    165
Cook            16  3.96     96
Volquez         17  3.21    206
Sheets          13  3.09    158
Peavy           10  2.85    166

Of course, raw stats don't take into account park factors, and wins don't take into account run support. Based on the above, though, you can eliminate pretty much everyone except Webb, Santana, Sabathia, Lincecum, Dempster and Hamels. All six are top performers in the three traditional categories.

Pitcher       VORP    WS     WARP1
Lincecum      72.5    27      9.5
Sabathia      76.2    25     10.7
Webb          50.8    22      8.7
J.Santana     73.4    21      8.6
Dempster      57.5    18      7.5
Hamels        56.3    18      7.8
Haren         53.2    20      8.3
Billingsley   51.6    16      7.0
Oswalt        44.1    18      6.2
Cook          36.5    17      6.2
Volquez       44.3    17      6.9
Sheets        52.4    16      5.8
Peavy         51.5    15      7.7

Last year was easy, because Peavy led the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts, plus swept the categories above. A lot tougher this year.

Only Lincecum, Sabathia and Santana have the extraordinary VORP numbers. Lincecum played for a horrible team. Sabathia split leagues but was a huge playoff factor. Santana was also a huge playoff factor.

Those same three pitchers, plus Webb, have the best Win Shares, but Lincecum has a significant lead. The same four lead WARP1, but Sabathia is significantly ahead.

In my mind Webb is clearly fourth, because of the factors above, and because he faded down the stretch. Webb had been #2 last year and seemed like the shoo-in at the All-Star break this year.

I think Lincecum was better than Santana this year, and managed to win those games with a terrible Giants team. To me, that pushes Santana to #3.

Sabathia had as good a year as any pitcher. The question is whether a pitcher who splits leagues ought to win one league's Cy Young. That gives me some pause. If he's going to win it, it has to be in the NL because (i) Cliff Lee has got to win it in the AL and (2) Sabathia did all his good work in the NL.

Sabathia single-handedly got Milwaukee to the playoffs for the first time since 1982, and he pitched on 3 days rest down the stretch. It was the most notable performance of the year. I give the Cy Young to C.C. Sabathia, and place Lincecum at #2. Lincecum will win one someday.