My next comment is related to baseball only in the sense that I have to hear this guy's voice in 1 out of every 3 commercials when I'm watching baseball on ESPN:
I hate John Mellencamp
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
San Diego Scuffling
Although I didn't intend my post about players who should no longer be in the league to have any relationship whatsoever to the San Diego meltdown, the list contains three -- yes three -- players who will be filling in for Milton Bradley.
Termel Sledge, Brady Clark and the recently acquired Jason Lane.
Termel Sledge, Brady Clark and the recently acquired Jason Lane.
Monday, September 24, 2007
Milton Bradley, again
I just watched in its entirety the Milton Bradley at bat in the 5th inning, and the confrontation in the 8th.
According to Bradley, when he approached the batter's box in the 8th, the home plate umpire (Runge) asked him if he flipped his bat at the ump after he struck out in the 5th. Bradley says he told the ump "No, why would I do that?" Bradley then asked the ump "Who told you that?" Runge told him that Mike Winters, the first base ump told Runge that Bradley flipped the bat at him.
I watched the end of the at bat in the 5th. It was a called strike. The ump and the catcher moved away. Bradley stood at home plate taking off his batting gloves. He was annoyed, but he wasn't talking to Runge or acting in an angry manner. I certainly didn't see him throw the bat. It is possible he tossed it after they went to commercial, but that would have been a good 20 seconds after the strikeout, and Runge was no longer even in the camera shot. It seems highly unlikely.
So after the conversation with Runge in the 8th, Bradley singled. When he reaches first, he turns to Winters and asks him a question. Bradley says the question was "Did you tell him I threw my bat? Why would you do that?" In the video, Winters is responding calmly. Bradley says Winters is telling him "You did throw the bat." Watching the video, I'm guessing Winters' tone was more along the lines of "That's what I saw...I thought you threw the bat at him." Bradley is clearly upset. Todd Helton is stoic.
As several pitches are made to Kouzamanoff, Bradley is still jawing as he takes his leads. Black comes out of the dugout to find out what's going on and to have a talk with Winters. Also, first base coach Bobby Meacham tells Black what's going on.
The game resumes, with Bradley taking his lead more quietly on the next pitch. On the following pitch, Bradley is jawing again, but not in a particularly boisterous manner. He's just talking. A fan yells "You suck ump." Bradley points to the fan, but says nothing. He and Winters continue to exchange dialogue, though Bradley is talking a lot more than Winters.
In the middle of taking his next lead, Winters says something to Bradley, and Bradley snaps. He rushes back to the first base bag -- not at Winters -- and tries to ask for time out. He looks like he wants a time out to figure out what Winters' problem is. Before he gets to the bag he turns and heads for Winters, who quickly throws him out of the game as Meacham tries to restrain him. Then Bud Black is there -- out of nowhere -- wrestling Bradley away, and eventually twisting/tackling him to the ground, where Bradley tore his ACL.
Bradley is hot tempered and probably over reacted to the whole thing. He has a chip on his shoulder.
But when I watched the video, it is clear Winters said something special to push Bradley over the edge. He was not in charging mode while he was taking his leads and jawing. Winters said something that pushed him. I'd love to hear what that was, either from Bobby Meacham or Todd Helton. Meacham commented today that if Winters had said the same thing to him, he would have charged him too. No word yet from Helton.
Nate Silver at BP argues that Helton has an ethical duty to step forward and report what he heard.
According to Bradley, when he approached the batter's box in the 8th, the home plate umpire (Runge) asked him if he flipped his bat at the ump after he struck out in the 5th. Bradley says he told the ump "No, why would I do that?" Bradley then asked the ump "Who told you that?" Runge told him that Mike Winters, the first base ump told Runge that Bradley flipped the bat at him.
I watched the end of the at bat in the 5th. It was a called strike. The ump and the catcher moved away. Bradley stood at home plate taking off his batting gloves. He was annoyed, but he wasn't talking to Runge or acting in an angry manner. I certainly didn't see him throw the bat. It is possible he tossed it after they went to commercial, but that would have been a good 20 seconds after the strikeout, and Runge was no longer even in the camera shot. It seems highly unlikely.
So after the conversation with Runge in the 8th, Bradley singled. When he reaches first, he turns to Winters and asks him a question. Bradley says the question was "Did you tell him I threw my bat? Why would you do that?" In the video, Winters is responding calmly. Bradley says Winters is telling him "You did throw the bat." Watching the video, I'm guessing Winters' tone was more along the lines of "That's what I saw...I thought you threw the bat at him." Bradley is clearly upset. Todd Helton is stoic.
As several pitches are made to Kouzamanoff, Bradley is still jawing as he takes his leads. Black comes out of the dugout to find out what's going on and to have a talk with Winters. Also, first base coach Bobby Meacham tells Black what's going on.
The game resumes, with Bradley taking his lead more quietly on the next pitch. On the following pitch, Bradley is jawing again, but not in a particularly boisterous manner. He's just talking. A fan yells "You suck ump." Bradley points to the fan, but says nothing. He and Winters continue to exchange dialogue, though Bradley is talking a lot more than Winters.
In the middle of taking his next lead, Winters says something to Bradley, and Bradley snaps. He rushes back to the first base bag -- not at Winters -- and tries to ask for time out. He looks like he wants a time out to figure out what Winters' problem is. Before he gets to the bag he turns and heads for Winters, who quickly throws him out of the game as Meacham tries to restrain him. Then Bud Black is there -- out of nowhere -- wrestling Bradley away, and eventually twisting/tackling him to the ground, where Bradley tore his ACL.
Bradley is hot tempered and probably over reacted to the whole thing. He has a chip on his shoulder.
But when I watched the video, it is clear Winters said something special to push Bradley over the edge. He was not in charging mode while he was taking his leads and jawing. Winters said something that pushed him. I'd love to hear what that was, either from Bobby Meacham or Todd Helton. Meacham commented today that if Winters had said the same thing to him, he would have charged him too. No word yet from Helton.
Nate Silver at BP argues that Helton has an ethical duty to step forward and report what he heard.
Bud Black on Milton Bradley
Bud Black was acting very strangely after last night's game in which Bradley was ejected and hurt his knee when Black wrestled him to the ground. Bradley is out for the season.
I watched Black's press conference.
First, Black said he didn't know what the conversation between Bradley and umpire Mike Winters was about. That has to be a lie. He's right there in the dugout, and the argument went on for 3-4 minutes at first base. In addition, he consulted with first base coach Bobby Meacham, who heard every word of the Bradley/Winters argument. Moreover, are you telling me that after the game Black did not talk to Bradley at all? Wouldn't that be strange behavior, considering he is arguably the best hitter on your team? If you were the manager, wouldn't you be curious?
A few minutes later a reporter asked if Bradley was upset about Jeff Francis' pickoff move, and Black emphatically said it had nothing to do with Francis. Oh, Bud, I thought you didn't know what it was about.
Second, a reporter asked if this is the first time he has been in a situation where he had to tackle a player. Black answered with a clipped "No." He did not elaborate.
Third, a different reporter asked if it was the first time he tackled a player who went down and didn't get up again. This time, Black said "I can't remember. Tackle? I was trying to pull Milton away from the argument. That's what I was trying to do. Y'know, I was trying to pull Milton away from the confrontation. I wasn't trying to 'tackle' him."
The reporter said, "it just looked that way." Black said "Did it look as though I was trying to pull him away?" The reporter said "it looked like you were trying to pull him away," and Black interjected "okay" and turned away from the reporter, ignoring the rest of the question.
Black had no problem with the word "tackle" the first time it was used, but then got defensive. And he can't remember if he ever tackled a player on the field and injured him? I've watched a lot of baseball, and I've never seen anything like that. You'd think Black could remember.
Fourth, a reporter said "is it a knee injury?" Black said "Yes. Somethin', yeah, I think. We don't know if that was a pre-existing injury or not." Black doesn't even know what part of his star outfielder is injured? And he suggests that Bradley has a pre-existing knee injury, when it is clear the injury was sustained when Black wrestled him to the ground? It's like Black is afraid he'll get blamed.
He was not confused about Mike Cameron's injury, by contrast.
Finally, a reporter said "Where do you go from here?" referring to coping with the situation. Black looked off to his left and said "Uh, where do we go, San Francisco?" A team official said "San Francisco" and Black said "Yeah." He was being cute with his answer, of course, but when you watch the press conference, it is clear that Black did not know who their next opponent was and needed help remembering. In the middle of a pennant race?
I watched Black's press conference.
First, Black said he didn't know what the conversation between Bradley and umpire Mike Winters was about. That has to be a lie. He's right there in the dugout, and the argument went on for 3-4 minutes at first base. In addition, he consulted with first base coach Bobby Meacham, who heard every word of the Bradley/Winters argument. Moreover, are you telling me that after the game Black did not talk to Bradley at all? Wouldn't that be strange behavior, considering he is arguably the best hitter on your team? If you were the manager, wouldn't you be curious?
A few minutes later a reporter asked if Bradley was upset about Jeff Francis' pickoff move, and Black emphatically said it had nothing to do with Francis. Oh, Bud, I thought you didn't know what it was about.
Second, a reporter asked if this is the first time he has been in a situation where he had to tackle a player. Black answered with a clipped "No." He did not elaborate.
Third, a different reporter asked if it was the first time he tackled a player who went down and didn't get up again. This time, Black said "I can't remember. Tackle? I was trying to pull Milton away from the argument. That's what I was trying to do. Y'know, I was trying to pull Milton away from the confrontation. I wasn't trying to 'tackle' him."
The reporter said, "it just looked that way." Black said "Did it look as though I was trying to pull him away?" The reporter said "it looked like you were trying to pull him away," and Black interjected "okay" and turned away from the reporter, ignoring the rest of the question.
Black had no problem with the word "tackle" the first time it was used, but then got defensive. And he can't remember if he ever tackled a player on the field and injured him? I've watched a lot of baseball, and I've never seen anything like that. You'd think Black could remember.
Fourth, a reporter said "is it a knee injury?" Black said "Yes. Somethin', yeah, I think. We don't know if that was a pre-existing injury or not." Black doesn't even know what part of his star outfielder is injured? And he suggests that Bradley has a pre-existing knee injury, when it is clear the injury was sustained when Black wrestled him to the ground? It's like Black is afraid he'll get blamed.
He was not confused about Mike Cameron's injury, by contrast.
Finally, a reporter said "Where do you go from here?" referring to coping with the situation. Black looked off to his left and said "Uh, where do we go, San Francisco?" A team official said "San Francisco" and Black said "Yeah." He was being cute with his answer, of course, but when you watch the press conference, it is clear that Black did not know who their next opponent was and needed help remembering. In the middle of a pennant race?
Players Who Don't Belong
These are the players who should not be on a major league roster, based solely on a glance at the rosters. No detailed analysis here. These guys hurt their teams more than they help. An asterisk (*) denotes a starter.
Craig Biggio would also be here, but he is already taken care of.
One more year like this, and these guys make the list too:
Julio Lugo
Reed Johnson
Jay Payton
Jay Gibbons
Toby Hall
Craig Monroe
Emil Brown*
Josh Barfield
Damian Miller
Jim Edmonds*
Shea Hillenbrand*
Gerald Laird*
Marcus Giles
Ray Durham*
Omar Vizquel*
AL East AL Central AL West
M. Cairo N. Perez J. Ellison
J. McDonald* N. Punto* B. Crosby*
R. Clayton D. Erstad M. Kotsay
J. Phillips S. Podsednik* J. Hairston
P. Bako A. Cintron
D. Navarro* T. Pena*
J. LaRue
NL East NL Central NL West
A. Nunez* J. Kendall* T. Sledge
S. Thorman C. Izturis H. Bocachica
C. Woodward C. Counsell S. Finley
P. Orr G. Bennett R. Martinez
J. Borchard J. Castro B. Clark
J. Lane
J. Castillo
M. Kata
C. Duffy
Craig Biggio would also be here, but he is already taken care of.
One more year like this, and these guys make the list too:
Julio Lugo
Reed Johnson
Jay Payton
Jay Gibbons
Toby Hall
Craig Monroe
Emil Brown*
Josh Barfield
Damian Miller
Jim Edmonds*
Shea Hillenbrand*
Gerald Laird*
Marcus Giles
Ray Durham*
Omar Vizquel*
Free Agency: Torii Hunter
On the Tigers/Twins telecast, the Tigers broadcast team was talking about Torii being a free agent at year's end, and that he would like to stay in Minnesota. They also mentioned he might be willing to take less than the maximum he could get on the market, if he could stay in Minnesota where they can't pay the same prices as some other teams.
Then Rod Allen said Hunter should not take too much of a cut, though, because he has a duty to maintain the high salaries for the other free agents in the market.
I realize that's the union talking, but this is the kind of thing that infuriates fans. Who does Hunter owe more of a duty to, the Minnesota fans who buy the tickets, pay his salary and cheer him on, or Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand and the other center field free agents?
Then Rod Allen said Hunter should not take too much of a cut, though, because he has a duty to maintain the high salaries for the other free agents in the market.
I realize that's the union talking, but this is the kind of thing that infuriates fans. Who does Hunter owe more of a duty to, the Minnesota fans who buy the tickets, pay his salary and cheer him on, or Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand and the other center field free agents?
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Nominee for Quote of the Year
Erik Karros just said on the Fox pre-game telecast:
"Meaningful games are important."
"Meaningful games are important."
Why Does Soriano Hit Leadoff?
I've spent the entire year wondering why the Cubs have Soriano in the first spot in the order. He doesn't have a high OBP (.332), yet he has a ton of power. He now has 30 HR, but because he hits first, only 61 RBI.
Over at Baseball Musings Cyril Myrong, Ken Arneson and Ryan Armbrust have a lineup optimizer based on their research. I plugged in the most common Cub lineup, as follows:
Soriano
Theriot
Lee
Ramirez
Floyd
DeRosa
Jones
Kendall
Pitcher (I used Marquis).
According to the lineup optimizer, this should produce 4.664 runs per game for the Cubs. The Cubs have actually scored 4.62 runs per game this year. That's damned close, considering all the lineup variations they have used (120, not counting pitchers).
Cubs pitching has given up 4.29 runs per game. Using pythagenport to estimate what the Cubs' record should be based on runs scored and runs allowed, we get 82-72. Their actual record is 81-73. So far, so good with our predictive measures.
The lineup optimizer says that the Cubs best lineup (assuming those same 9 players) is as follows:
DeRosa
Lee
Theriot
Ramirez
Floyd
Soriano
Jones
Marquis
Kendall
According to the lineup optimizer, this batting order would produce 5.102 runs per game. Substitute that into our pythagenport and the Cubs record would be 90-64, a whopping 8 wins better than predicted with their common lineup.
In fact, in the top 8 run producing combos for the Cubs with these 9 players, Soriano hits sixth each time. In the other top 17 scenarios, he hits either sixth or fourth.
If this is accurate, there shouldn't even be a pennant race in the NL Central.
Over at Baseball Musings Cyril Myrong, Ken Arneson and Ryan Armbrust have a lineup optimizer based on their research. I plugged in the most common Cub lineup, as follows:
Soriano
Theriot
Lee
Ramirez
Floyd
DeRosa
Jones
Kendall
Pitcher (I used Marquis).
According to the lineup optimizer, this should produce 4.664 runs per game for the Cubs. The Cubs have actually scored 4.62 runs per game this year. That's damned close, considering all the lineup variations they have used (120, not counting pitchers).
Cubs pitching has given up 4.29 runs per game. Using pythagenport to estimate what the Cubs' record should be based on runs scored and runs allowed, we get 82-72. Their actual record is 81-73. So far, so good with our predictive measures.
The lineup optimizer says that the Cubs best lineup (assuming those same 9 players) is as follows:
DeRosa
Lee
Theriot
Ramirez
Floyd
Soriano
Jones
Marquis
Kendall
According to the lineup optimizer, this batting order would produce 5.102 runs per game. Substitute that into our pythagenport and the Cubs record would be 90-64, a whopping 8 wins better than predicted with their common lineup.
In fact, in the top 8 run producing combos for the Cubs with these 9 players, Soriano hits sixth each time. In the other top 17 scenarios, he hits either sixth or fourth.
If this is accurate, there shouldn't even be a pennant race in the NL Central.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Griffey Hurt
Ken Griffey, Jr. just went down in the outfield. Trying to make a throw, he appears to have pulled a groin or hamstring. He was hurt badly enough that he threw the ball to the infield underhanded, and then crumpled to the ground.
See my earlier post today about the Reds declaring they'll play Griffey against the contending teams and rest him against the others. My premise is that they ought to rest him on a regular schedule, irrespective of the opponent. I don't know that this injury proves me right, but it certainly helps.
See my earlier post today about the Reds declaring they'll play Griffey against the contending teams and rest him against the others. My premise is that they ought to rest him on a regular schedule, irrespective of the opponent. I don't know that this injury proves me right, but it certainly helps.
Cubs Whining
Last night and tonight, the Astros are starting rookie pitchers against the Brewers. The Brewers and Cubs are tied in the NL Central. The Cubs claim the Astros are acting inappropriately by starting the rookies against their division rivals.
Here's why the Astros are doing it. Roy Oswalt was scheduled to start last night. His wife had a baby. He couldn't make the start. A rookie started in his place.
Woody Williams' turn in the rotation was tonight. He's 40. He told management he didn't want to start. He wanted to give the young guys a chance and he wanted to move to the bullpen.
The Astros were courteous enough to make a phone call to the Cubs and explain the reasons. The Cubs return courtesy with sniping.
Orel Hershiser and Steve Phillips (of ESPN) say a team has to start its best players in the games that affect the standings, and play the rookies in the other games. This, they say, is "maintaining the integrity of the game."
I disagree. I believe maintaining the integrity of the game means doing what you would do normally, without regard to who you are playing. If, as the Astros maintain, these two rookies would have started even if they were playing a non-contending team, then I believe they are acting with integrity.
I don't understand how it is more above-board for a team to stack its best players against the contending teams. Is that what happened all year, or did the stars sometimes sit against the best teams because it happened to be their scheduled day off?
The Reds say they'll play Griffey against the good teams, and sit him against the bad teams. How is that integrity? That, in fact, is gaming the system. Griffey should sit on his regularly scheduled days off, regardless of opponent.
Here's why the Astros are doing it. Roy Oswalt was scheduled to start last night. His wife had a baby. He couldn't make the start. A rookie started in his place.
Woody Williams' turn in the rotation was tonight. He's 40. He told management he didn't want to start. He wanted to give the young guys a chance and he wanted to move to the bullpen.
The Astros were courteous enough to make a phone call to the Cubs and explain the reasons. The Cubs return courtesy with sniping.
Orel Hershiser and Steve Phillips (of ESPN) say a team has to start its best players in the games that affect the standings, and play the rookies in the other games. This, they say, is "maintaining the integrity of the game."
I disagree. I believe maintaining the integrity of the game means doing what you would do normally, without regard to who you are playing. If, as the Astros maintain, these two rookies would have started even if they were playing a non-contending team, then I believe they are acting with integrity.
I don't understand how it is more above-board for a team to stack its best players against the contending teams. Is that what happened all year, or did the stars sometimes sit against the best teams because it happened to be their scheduled day off?
The Reds say they'll play Griffey against the good teams, and sit him against the bad teams. How is that integrity? That, in fact, is gaming the system. Griffey should sit on his regularly scheduled days off, regardless of opponent.
Monday, September 17, 2007
#756
Last month I asked what you would do with #756 and said I would donate it to the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately, I didn't catch it.
Marc Ecko didn't either, but he is stinkin' rich and he bought it. Now he's asking the same question. Would you give it to the HoF, brand it with an asterisk and then send it to the HoF or shoot it into space? Vote here.
Kudos Marc!
Marc Ecko didn't either, but he is stinkin' rich and he bought it. Now he's asking the same question. Would you give it to the HoF, brand it with an asterisk and then send it to the HoF or shoot it into space? Vote here.
Kudos Marc!
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Four Steals In A Game Seems Awesome
...but it isn't, really.
Rafael Furcal stole four bases tonight off Miguel Montero (two off of Livan Hernandez and two off of Doug Slaten). Great fantasy day, and I thought it must be very rare. But, it isn't as impressive as I would have thought in the annals of MLB history.
Nineteen times someone has stolen more than four bases in a game. And it isn't just the old timers. Eleven of those 19 have been since 1990. Four players stole 6 bases in a game: Eddie Collins twice (in 1912, eleven days apart), Otis Nixon (1991) and Eric Young (1996). Young must have hit his noggin on a few head-first slides, which would explain why he utters a string of verbalizations on Baseball Tonight that I cannot make heads or tails of.
The most recent 5 or more performance was Ryan Freel's 5 SB game in 2005. If you are curious, Rickey Henderson did it only once. You don't need to steal five a game when you steal one almost every game.
The strangest name on the list? Tony Gwynn. Yeah, he wasn't always fat.
Rafael Furcal stole four bases tonight off Miguel Montero (two off of Livan Hernandez and two off of Doug Slaten). Great fantasy day, and I thought it must be very rare. But, it isn't as impressive as I would have thought in the annals of MLB history.
Nineteen times someone has stolen more than four bases in a game. And it isn't just the old timers. Eleven of those 19 have been since 1990. Four players stole 6 bases in a game: Eddie Collins twice (in 1912, eleven days apart), Otis Nixon (1991) and Eric Young (1996). Young must have hit his noggin on a few head-first slides, which would explain why he utters a string of verbalizations on Baseball Tonight that I cannot make heads or tails of.
The most recent 5 or more performance was Ryan Freel's 5 SB game in 2005. If you are curious, Rickey Henderson did it only once. You don't need to steal five a game when you steal one almost every game.
The strangest name on the list? Tony Gwynn. Yeah, he wasn't always fat.
Notes from White Sox/Angels
Scot Shields
Shields has not had a particularly good year, at least not by his standards, but his rates are all about the same. His walks are a tad higher. I think I know why.
This is the first time I've seen him pitch all year, and I understand why he has only given up 6.8 hits per 9 IP over the last three years. I've never seen so much movement. His fastball moves a foot. His slider moves even more. It's like trying to swing and hit a heat seeking missile.
Maybe all that movement is hard to control, and results in a higher walk rate.
Bad Calls, Mike Scioscia and Ken Harrelson
Bottom of the 8th, one out, no one on, Angels lead 2-1. Jerry Owens hits a grounder to first. Owens is fast. He arrives at Casey Kotchman about the same time the ball does. Kotchman, in one motion, scoops up the ball and swipes at Owens. At the time their paths cross, their bodies are literally six inches apart. Umpire calls Owens safe, saying Kotchman missed the tag.
It was impossible to tell, in the live action, whether Kotchman made the tag. But at the same time, it seemed impossible he could have missed him. They almost collided. Kotchman complained loudly.
And here comes Scioscia. This is one of the most interesting arguments I've seen a manager make. He's very angry. He starts yelling, but mid-word gets control of himself. Puts his hands in a prayer like pose and says "Mike, Mike, Mike" pleading to the umpire. Then Scioscia is on the verge of rage and starts to explode, but again, gathers himself. Puts his hands in the prayer position and begs the ump. The sequence repeats a third time.
(MLB Gameday referred to this sequence as "On-field Delay")
WGN finally gets around to showing a replay. The replay is from the visitor's dugout camera. It is utterly inconclusive, because the shot is blurry and the angle is wrong. Nevertheless, the hopeless homer Ken Harrelson declares from the broadcast booth: "He missed him. They got the call right!" leaving both me, and his broadcast partner speechless. I still didn't know if Kotchman made the tag, but I knew that angle didn't prove anything.
We got two more angles. Both showed Kotchman tagged him. Twice. Once on the butt, and once on the back foot kicking up. Harrelson said that "just goes to show that it depends on the angle." Yeah, no kidding.
Mike Scioscia, reprise
Scioscia lost the argument obviously. He's in the dugout stewing, because he's leading 2-1 and the Angels are in a playoff race.
Podsednik is now at the plate. Shields throws three pitches, two strikes and a ball. Then wham, on the fourth pitch, Shields gets Podsednik looking, and catcher Jeff Mathis fires to first and picks Owens off first with a snap tag from Kotchman. Scioscia called for the catcher pickoff from the dugout.
Scioscia's awesome!
Shields has not had a particularly good year, at least not by his standards, but his rates are all about the same. His walks are a tad higher. I think I know why.
This is the first time I've seen him pitch all year, and I understand why he has only given up 6.8 hits per 9 IP over the last three years. I've never seen so much movement. His fastball moves a foot. His slider moves even more. It's like trying to swing and hit a heat seeking missile.
Maybe all that movement is hard to control, and results in a higher walk rate.
Bad Calls, Mike Scioscia and Ken Harrelson
Bottom of the 8th, one out, no one on, Angels lead 2-1. Jerry Owens hits a grounder to first. Owens is fast. He arrives at Casey Kotchman about the same time the ball does. Kotchman, in one motion, scoops up the ball and swipes at Owens. At the time their paths cross, their bodies are literally six inches apart. Umpire calls Owens safe, saying Kotchman missed the tag.
It was impossible to tell, in the live action, whether Kotchman made the tag. But at the same time, it seemed impossible he could have missed him. They almost collided. Kotchman complained loudly.
And here comes Scioscia. This is one of the most interesting arguments I've seen a manager make. He's very angry. He starts yelling, but mid-word gets control of himself. Puts his hands in a prayer like pose and says "Mike, Mike, Mike" pleading to the umpire. Then Scioscia is on the verge of rage and starts to explode, but again, gathers himself. Puts his hands in the prayer position and begs the ump. The sequence repeats a third time.
(MLB Gameday referred to this sequence as "On-field Delay")
WGN finally gets around to showing a replay. The replay is from the visitor's dugout camera. It is utterly inconclusive, because the shot is blurry and the angle is wrong. Nevertheless, the hopeless homer Ken Harrelson declares from the broadcast booth: "He missed him. They got the call right!" leaving both me, and his broadcast partner speechless. I still didn't know if Kotchman made the tag, but I knew that angle didn't prove anything.
We got two more angles. Both showed Kotchman tagged him. Twice. Once on the butt, and once on the back foot kicking up. Harrelson said that "just goes to show that it depends on the angle." Yeah, no kidding.
Mike Scioscia, reprise
Scioscia lost the argument obviously. He's in the dugout stewing, because he's leading 2-1 and the Angels are in a playoff race.
Podsednik is now at the plate. Shields throws three pitches, two strikes and a ball. Then wham, on the fourth pitch, Shields gets Podsednik looking, and catcher Jeff Mathis fires to first and picks Owens off first with a snap tag from Kotchman. Scioscia called for the catcher pickoff from the dugout.
Scioscia's awesome!
Friday, September 14, 2007
Griffey as Home Run King?
I was thinking the other day how nice it would have been if Griffey was the all-time home run leader instead of Bonds. Not that I hate Bonds. I just like Griffey so much more. So smooth in the outfield. Such a beautiful swing.
Griff stands at 593 homers. I know it is a big part of the accomplishment to stay healthy. Bottom line, Griffey didn't do it. Still, I thought it would be fun to try and project what his home runs would have been without the injuries.
Griffey's principal injury years were 94-95 with Seattle, and 01-04, and 06 with Cincinnati. To project the number of games he should have played in the injury years, I'll average the healthy year prior to the injury year, and the healthy year after the injury year, and assume the same rate of plate appearances and homers as during the injury year.
That's 83 more homers. He would only need to hit 87 more to pass Bonds, if Bonds retires at the end of the year. And Griffey is five years younger than Bonds.
Alas, wishin' don't make it so. Something to keep in mind when you see that A-Rod is "on pace" to break the all-time record.
Weird stat: Griffey has grounded into more double plays than Bonds, despite 3 fewer seasons and all the injuries. That's the advantage of Bonds' high walk rate.
Weirder stat: A-Rod has grounded into only 3 fewer double plays than Griffey, and more than Bonds, despite being only 31.
Griff stands at 593 homers. I know it is a big part of the accomplishment to stay healthy. Bottom line, Griffey didn't do it. Still, I thought it would be fun to try and project what his home runs would have been without the injuries.
Griffey's principal injury years were 94-95 with Seattle, and 01-04, and 06 with Cincinnati. To project the number of games he should have played in the injury years, I'll average the healthy year prior to the injury year, and the healthy year after the injury year, and assume the same rate of plate appearances and homers as during the injury year.
Year Actual HR Revised HR
89 16 16
90 22 22
91 22 22
92 27 27
93 45 45
94 40 52
95 17 35
96 49 49
97 56 56
98 56 56
99 48 48
00 40 40
01 22 27
02 8 16
03 13 34
04 20 33
05 35 35
06 27 33
07 30 30
---- ----
593 676
That's 83 more homers. He would only need to hit 87 more to pass Bonds, if Bonds retires at the end of the year. And Griffey is five years younger than Bonds.
Alas, wishin' don't make it so. Something to keep in mind when you see that A-Rod is "on pace" to break the all-time record.
Weird stat: Griffey has grounded into more double plays than Bonds, despite 3 fewer seasons and all the injuries. That's the advantage of Bonds' high walk rate.
Weirder stat: A-Rod has grounded into only 3 fewer double plays than Griffey, and more than Bonds, despite being only 31.
Sunday, September 09, 2007
Fallen Stars
Vernon Wells
The two-time all-star and silver slugger winner has had a dismal season. He's sporting a .730 OPS. His previous low was .762 in his first full season. Since then, he has averaged .850. He's unlikely to reach 20 HR, a mark he has never missed since becoming a regular, and to likely surpass his single-season strikeout mark.
He's only 28. This wasn't supposed to happen. He's performing at about the 10th percentile of his PECOTA projection.
The problem seems to be that he has stopped hitting righties. He has a miserable .698 OPS against them this year, which is .242 below his lefty mark. Last year he had a .900 against righties, with no noticeable platoon split. But 2005 and 2004 presented clues. In 2005 he hit righties at .689, a whopping .392 below his lefty performance, and in 2004 hit .757, .187 below his lefty performance.
It's looking like 2006 was a fluke.
J.D. Drew
Drew has never stayed healthy enough to be an all-star, but he has generally played all-star caliber baseball. He rarely posts an OPS+ less than 125. This year he's got a 94 with an OPS of .739, a terrible figure for a corner outfielder, with only 7 HR. His strikeout and walk rates are about the same, but his batting average is below normal.
The problem is almost entirely in the power dep't. His BABIP is not out of whack, so it isn't just bad luck. He's simply not driving the ball. Despite all his potential, he is now 31 and is likely on the downswing. Still, it was not anticipated. Like Wells, he's almost pegging his 10th percentile PECOTA projection.
Richie Sexson
Never a well-rounded hitter, Sexson has relied almost entirely on his HR prowess for a roster spot. His OPS lives in the high 800s/low 900s because he always hits about 30 HR and 30 doubles while lingering a little below league average on his BA.
This year he has barely stayed above the Mendoza line and his power numbers are way down. Strangely, he has actually cut down on his strikeouts a little bit, but his walk rate has been declining too. His line drive percentage has dipped substantially as well.
There are two other key factors: His BABIP is very low for his LD%, so there's a lot of bad luck in that batting average. More importantly, fewer of his fly balls are leaving the yard, a downward trend that began in 2004. He is not even achieving the 10th percentile of his PECOTA projection. At age 32, PECOTA will not be generous next year (I suspect).
Carlos Delgado
One of my favorite players. He just looks cool (visually and temperamentally) at the plate. He's still past 20 HR and 80 RBI, but he's probably not going to play much before the playoffs. He'll finish with his lowest OPS+ in his career (though still better than average). Better than average is not good enough for a first baseman, though. A .774 is good for a shortstop, not a first baseman.
He has had a lot of nagging injuries this year, but before that he got off to a really slow start. The first month and a half of the season he posted a .635 OPS. Since then he has been a respectable .828.
The problem seems to be his plate discipline, posting his lowest walk rate by a substantial margin. He also will post a career-low isolated power figure, primarily because (like Sexson), fewer of his fly balls are leaving the yard. He can't hit at home (.664) and he isn't hitting lefties (.697). Like most lefties, his numbers against lefties are pretty low, but in the past he hasn't been this far off.
His skills may be declining some at age 35, but he's floating between PECOTA's 10th and 25th percentile primarily because of that first month and a half. I wouldn't write him off in 2008, if he's healthy.
Andruw Jones
His bad year is not unprecedented. He did about the same thing in 2001, but he's got even fewer homers this year. His strikeout rate has actually gone up and his walk rate down, which is saying something for this perennial free swinger. From a BA perspective, he's had some bad luck, but like the previous two entries, his fly balls are not leaving the park.
He is below his PECOTA 10th percentile projection. He did have a predicted 20% collapse rate though. Two years ago BP predicted Cooperstown for Jones. BP predicted 2007 to be the same as 2006.
It's mostly inconsistency. In April and July he was well over .900. In June he was below .500! Of course, a large part of Andruw's value has always come from his defensive play. BP shows that has been declining since 2004, as he has been about average in CF since then. With this kind of volatility, it's hard to know what to expect next year.
Scott Rolen
In an injury-plagued career, he has only had one season this bad, and he had half that at-bats that year. It's the power that has disappeared. He is hitting the ball on the ground a lot more, and his fly balls are dying in the outfield. He is also horrible against lefties, which makes no sense. Lefties have always been a problem for him, but not at this level.
He is way below his 10th percentile PECOTA projection, but PECOTA did warn with a 31% collapse rate. At 32, and with a history of injury, we probably won't see the old Rolen again. FWIW, unlike Andruw Jones, Rolen remains a stellar defender.
Jim Edmonds
This poor year is more easily explainable by his age (37) and his increasing tendency to get hurt. This is likely his worst full-season ever (which was true last year too -- not a promising trend).
Even with all that, he is still at only the 10th percentile in PECOTA. A 54% collapse rate was a giant red flag, though. It's hard to know what next year holds, but he should not get at bats against lefties, against whom he is striking out every third at-bat. With declining defensive skills, Edmonds is rapidly approaching a pinch hitting role against righties, which might be hard for him to swallow. It's time for retirement.
Lance Berkman
Maybe he shouldn't be on this list, with an OPS+ of 125, but this is a guy we expect to see with an OPS+ of 145 and one of the toughest hitters in the game. Instead, we've seen a substantial increase in strikeouts, and fewer walks. His contact is more often on the ground. His homers are not substantially down, but his doubles are significantly reduced.
So despite numbers that many players would be happy with, he's around his 10th percentile PECOTA projection, except for his homers, which are around the 40th percentile. He's a far cry from finishing as a top 5 MVP candidate (which he has done twice), but he ought to be able to turn it around next year.
Perhaps he was simply depressed about the Astros running Biggio out there every day, indicating more willingness to appease a Hall of Famer than contending for a championship.
Jason Bay
Bay is distinguished by being the youngest and most promising guy on this list. At age 28 and in his prime, we did not expect he'd hit worse than an average major leaguer, particularly from a corner outfield spot. He's striking out about the same, but his walk rate has evaporated...almost half as frequent as last year.
He seems to be swinging at pitches he did not swing at before, and hitting weak fly balls for outs. Perhaps his knee is not 100%, indicated by only 5 steal attempts and that he has gone from a good right fielder to a below-average one.
He is far below his 10th percentile prediction. I don't think anyone saw this coming, though the injury caused PECOTA to generate a 36% collapse rate. Just what the Pirates needed.
Marcus Giles
Unlike the other guys here, he was never a hitting superstar, but he was a solid second baseman who frequently would post an OPS in the low 800s. Last year it dipped to the low 700s. Now it is in the low 600s and he has lost his starting spot.
PECOTA's mean projection was negative about Giles, and he still managed to come in below the 10th percentile. That's saying something. It isn't clear what the problem is, except that his good years benefited from some lucky BABIP numbers, which have now normalized.
His defense remains good, so he will probably hang around awhile. He's only 29, but his bat seems finished. The good news is that Blum (his replacement) is not any better, and is actually a worse defender. Giles will stick at least in a backup role somewhere.
Nomar Garciaparra
After an excellent comeback year, we expected better than an OPS+ of 76, from a first baseman/third baseman, no less. No wonder he's lost in the shuffle of Dodger youngsters.
His power is a distant memory. Most teams cannot tolerate 6 HR in 400+ ABs from a corner infielder. In fact, many teams would not tolerate a sub .100 ISO from middle infielders and catchers. His walk and strikeout rates are the same. He just has no power. He isn't driving the ball, and instead, is hitting grounders. Like the other guys, he's at his 10th percentile projection in PECOTA.
The only place he hits is Dodger Stadium, so there may not be much of a market elsewhere. Do the Dodgers want to hang on to a 34 year old replacement level player with all the talent in their minor league system?
Ray Durham
Another old guy. He's been average or better his entire career. A 66 OPS+? Are you kidding? And he has been playing every day, doing huge damage to a SF team that cannot afford it.
Scariest of all, he got off to a decent start. Since May 1, his OPS is .610. Since June 1, .597. Since the all-star break, .483. I can't believe the Giants didn't have somebody they could plug in to produce better numbers than that. But not only did the Giants leave him in the starting lineup, his most common lineup position was 3rd in the order!
Adding insult to injury, his defense has been 1 run below replacement and 18 runs below average! Nothing less than total disaster at 36 years old.
PECOTA did not see this coming. He is way way below the 10th percentile, and his collapse rate was only 16%, with an improve rate of 47%.
Durham gets the award for biggest collapse among former stars.
The two-time all-star and silver slugger winner has had a dismal season. He's sporting a .730 OPS. His previous low was .762 in his first full season. Since then, he has averaged .850. He's unlikely to reach 20 HR, a mark he has never missed since becoming a regular, and to likely surpass his single-season strikeout mark.
He's only 28. This wasn't supposed to happen. He's performing at about the 10th percentile of his PECOTA projection.
The problem seems to be that he has stopped hitting righties. He has a miserable .698 OPS against them this year, which is .242 below his lefty mark. Last year he had a .900 against righties, with no noticeable platoon split. But 2005 and 2004 presented clues. In 2005 he hit righties at .689, a whopping .392 below his lefty performance, and in 2004 hit .757, .187 below his lefty performance.
It's looking like 2006 was a fluke.
J.D. Drew
Drew has never stayed healthy enough to be an all-star, but he has generally played all-star caliber baseball. He rarely posts an OPS+ less than 125. This year he's got a 94 with an OPS of .739, a terrible figure for a corner outfielder, with only 7 HR. His strikeout and walk rates are about the same, but his batting average is below normal.
The problem is almost entirely in the power dep't. His BABIP is not out of whack, so it isn't just bad luck. He's simply not driving the ball. Despite all his potential, he is now 31 and is likely on the downswing. Still, it was not anticipated. Like Wells, he's almost pegging his 10th percentile PECOTA projection.
Richie Sexson
Never a well-rounded hitter, Sexson has relied almost entirely on his HR prowess for a roster spot. His OPS lives in the high 800s/low 900s because he always hits about 30 HR and 30 doubles while lingering a little below league average on his BA.
This year he has barely stayed above the Mendoza line and his power numbers are way down. Strangely, he has actually cut down on his strikeouts a little bit, but his walk rate has been declining too. His line drive percentage has dipped substantially as well.
There are two other key factors: His BABIP is very low for his LD%, so there's a lot of bad luck in that batting average. More importantly, fewer of his fly balls are leaving the yard, a downward trend that began in 2004. He is not even achieving the 10th percentile of his PECOTA projection. At age 32, PECOTA will not be generous next year (I suspect).
Carlos Delgado
One of my favorite players. He just looks cool (visually and temperamentally) at the plate. He's still past 20 HR and 80 RBI, but he's probably not going to play much before the playoffs. He'll finish with his lowest OPS+ in his career (though still better than average). Better than average is not good enough for a first baseman, though. A .774 is good for a shortstop, not a first baseman.
He has had a lot of nagging injuries this year, but before that he got off to a really slow start. The first month and a half of the season he posted a .635 OPS. Since then he has been a respectable .828.
The problem seems to be his plate discipline, posting his lowest walk rate by a substantial margin. He also will post a career-low isolated power figure, primarily because (like Sexson), fewer of his fly balls are leaving the yard. He can't hit at home (.664) and he isn't hitting lefties (.697). Like most lefties, his numbers against lefties are pretty low, but in the past he hasn't been this far off.
His skills may be declining some at age 35, but he's floating between PECOTA's 10th and 25th percentile primarily because of that first month and a half. I wouldn't write him off in 2008, if he's healthy.
Andruw Jones
His bad year is not unprecedented. He did about the same thing in 2001, but he's got even fewer homers this year. His strikeout rate has actually gone up and his walk rate down, which is saying something for this perennial free swinger. From a BA perspective, he's had some bad luck, but like the previous two entries, his fly balls are not leaving the park.
He is below his PECOTA 10th percentile projection. He did have a predicted 20% collapse rate though. Two years ago BP predicted Cooperstown for Jones. BP predicted 2007 to be the same as 2006.
It's mostly inconsistency. In April and July he was well over .900. In June he was below .500! Of course, a large part of Andruw's value has always come from his defensive play. BP shows that has been declining since 2004, as he has been about average in CF since then. With this kind of volatility, it's hard to know what to expect next year.
Scott Rolen
In an injury-plagued career, he has only had one season this bad, and he had half that at-bats that year. It's the power that has disappeared. He is hitting the ball on the ground a lot more, and his fly balls are dying in the outfield. He is also horrible against lefties, which makes no sense. Lefties have always been a problem for him, but not at this level.
He is way below his 10th percentile PECOTA projection, but PECOTA did warn with a 31% collapse rate. At 32, and with a history of injury, we probably won't see the old Rolen again. FWIW, unlike Andruw Jones, Rolen remains a stellar defender.
Jim Edmonds
This poor year is more easily explainable by his age (37) and his increasing tendency to get hurt. This is likely his worst full-season ever (which was true last year too -- not a promising trend).
Even with all that, he is still at only the 10th percentile in PECOTA. A 54% collapse rate was a giant red flag, though. It's hard to know what next year holds, but he should not get at bats against lefties, against whom he is striking out every third at-bat. With declining defensive skills, Edmonds is rapidly approaching a pinch hitting role against righties, which might be hard for him to swallow. It's time for retirement.
Lance Berkman
Maybe he shouldn't be on this list, with an OPS+ of 125, but this is a guy we expect to see with an OPS+ of 145 and one of the toughest hitters in the game. Instead, we've seen a substantial increase in strikeouts, and fewer walks. His contact is more often on the ground. His homers are not substantially down, but his doubles are significantly reduced.
So despite numbers that many players would be happy with, he's around his 10th percentile PECOTA projection, except for his homers, which are around the 40th percentile. He's a far cry from finishing as a top 5 MVP candidate (which he has done twice), but he ought to be able to turn it around next year.
Perhaps he was simply depressed about the Astros running Biggio out there every day, indicating more willingness to appease a Hall of Famer than contending for a championship.
Jason Bay
Bay is distinguished by being the youngest and most promising guy on this list. At age 28 and in his prime, we did not expect he'd hit worse than an average major leaguer, particularly from a corner outfield spot. He's striking out about the same, but his walk rate has evaporated...almost half as frequent as last year.
He seems to be swinging at pitches he did not swing at before, and hitting weak fly balls for outs. Perhaps his knee is not 100%, indicated by only 5 steal attempts and that he has gone from a good right fielder to a below-average one.
He is far below his 10th percentile prediction. I don't think anyone saw this coming, though the injury caused PECOTA to generate a 36% collapse rate. Just what the Pirates needed.
Marcus Giles
Unlike the other guys here, he was never a hitting superstar, but he was a solid second baseman who frequently would post an OPS in the low 800s. Last year it dipped to the low 700s. Now it is in the low 600s and he has lost his starting spot.
PECOTA's mean projection was negative about Giles, and he still managed to come in below the 10th percentile. That's saying something. It isn't clear what the problem is, except that his good years benefited from some lucky BABIP numbers, which have now normalized.
His defense remains good, so he will probably hang around awhile. He's only 29, but his bat seems finished. The good news is that Blum (his replacement) is not any better, and is actually a worse defender. Giles will stick at least in a backup role somewhere.
Nomar Garciaparra
After an excellent comeback year, we expected better than an OPS+ of 76, from a first baseman/third baseman, no less. No wonder he's lost in the shuffle of Dodger youngsters.
His power is a distant memory. Most teams cannot tolerate 6 HR in 400+ ABs from a corner infielder. In fact, many teams would not tolerate a sub .100 ISO from middle infielders and catchers. His walk and strikeout rates are the same. He just has no power. He isn't driving the ball, and instead, is hitting grounders. Like the other guys, he's at his 10th percentile projection in PECOTA.
The only place he hits is Dodger Stadium, so there may not be much of a market elsewhere. Do the Dodgers want to hang on to a 34 year old replacement level player with all the talent in their minor league system?
Ray Durham
Another old guy. He's been average or better his entire career. A 66 OPS+? Are you kidding? And he has been playing every day, doing huge damage to a SF team that cannot afford it.
Scariest of all, he got off to a decent start. Since May 1, his OPS is .610. Since June 1, .597. Since the all-star break, .483. I can't believe the Giants didn't have somebody they could plug in to produce better numbers than that. But not only did the Giants leave him in the starting lineup, his most common lineup position was 3rd in the order!
Adding insult to injury, his defense has been 1 run below replacement and 18 runs below average! Nothing less than total disaster at 36 years old.
PECOTA did not see this coming. He is way way below the 10th percentile, and his collapse rate was only 16%, with an improve rate of 47%.
Durham gets the award for biggest collapse among former stars.
Pitching Predictions - Sep 9
Probably the best Predictamatic day yet.
Big Games:
Ortiz (0/4)
McLouth (0/3, 1R)
Nady (DNP)
M.Cabrera (1/3, 1R)
H.Ramirez (1/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI)
Howard (DNP)
Burrell (2/4, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI)
Fielder (2/5, 1R)
Braun (2/4, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI)
Dunn (0/4)
Hamilton (0/1)
Morneau (1/4, 1RBI)
Konerko (0/4)
Thome (1/2, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI)
A-Rod (2/4, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI)
Kinsler (0/2, 3R)
Greene (0/3, 1R)
A.Gonzalez (0/4)
Sheffield (0/3, 1R)
Ordonez (2/4, 1R, 3RBI)
Pujols (1/4, 1RBI)
C.Young (1/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI)
C.Jackson (DNP)
C.Pena (3/4, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI)
Stairs (0/3)
Zimmerman (1/5, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI)
Kearns (1/5, 1R)
Teixeira (2/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI)
C.Jones (1/3, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI)
Totals (29): 24/93, 24 R, 11 HR, 24 RBI, Grade: C
Game Winners: Boston (W), Pittsburgh (W), Angels (L), Philadelphia (toss-up - W), Mets (W), San Francisco (W), Milwaukee (W), White Sox (L), Yankees (W), Texas (W), San Diego (L), Detroit (L), Arizona (W), Tampa Bay (W), Washington (W)
Totals: 11-4, Grade: A
Pitchers IP H HR BB SO ER 4+Runs 5+Runs
Beckett (BOS) 7.0 7 0 1 5 2 20% 11%
7.0 7 2 0 8 2 Grade: A-
Guthrie (BAL) 6.0 7 1 2 4 3 42% 27%
5.0 7 0 2 5 2 Grade: A
Trachsel (CHC) 5.0 7 1 2 2 4 54% 39%
2.0 6 0 1 0 6 Grade: B
Morris (PIT) 6.0 7 - 2 3 3 30% 17%
6.0 7 1 2 2 4 Grade: B+
Laffey (CLE) 5.1 7 - 1 2 2 26% 14%
5.0 6 0 2 3 1 Grade: A-
Weaver (LAA) 5.2 6 1 2 4 3 29% 16%
5.0 9 1 1 5 6 Grade: D
Willis (FLA) 5.2 7 1 2 5 4 52% 35%
3.0 7 2 2 3 7 Grade: C-
Moyer (PHI) 5.2 7 2 1 5 4 56% 39%
5.1 6 3 1 6 5 Grade: A
Oswalt (HOU) 6.1 8 0 2 4 3 41% 27%
7.0 9 1 1 4 4 Grade: A-
Martinez (NYM) 5.1 5 - 3 4 2 13% 6%
5.0 6 0 1 4 0 Grade: A-
Penny (LAD) 6.0 6 - 3 4 2 20% 11%
7.0 8 0 1 1 2 Grade: B+
Cain (SFG) 6.0 6 - 3 5 2 21% 12%
7.0 6 2 1 4 2 Grade" B+
Sheets (MIL) 5.2 6 1 2 6 3 35% 21%
6.0 6 1 3 6 5 Grade: B
Dumatrait (CIN) 4.0 6 1 1 2 4 52% 34%
0.0 5 3 0 0 4 Grade: B
Santana (MIN) 6.0 7 1 2 8 3 45% 28%
7.0 5 0 2 10 1 Grade: C
Garland (CHW) 6.1 8 0 1 2 3 30% 18%
8.0 5 1 2 5 1 Grade: C
Wang (NYY) 6.0 7 - 2 4 3 30% 18%
7.0 5 0 4 4 3 Grade: B+
Greinke (KCR) 6.1 8 1 2 5 4 50% 35%
3.2 6 1 2 1 3 Grade: B
DiNardo (OAK) 5.2 7 1 2 3 3 40% 27%
(n/a - pulled early for rain delay)
Millwood (TEX) 5.1 6 0 3 4 3 34% 21%
(n/a - pulled early for rain delay)
Young (SDP) 5.1 5 0 3 6 2 18% 10%
5.0 2 1 5 8 3 Grade: B
Fogg (COL) 5.1 7 1 2 3 4 52% 37%
5.0 7 0 3 2 1 Grade: C
Hernandez (SEA) 5.2 8 1 2 5 3 46% 31%
5.0 10 1 3 4 6 Grade: C
Bonderman (DET) 6.1 8 1 1 4 3 40% 26%
1.1 7 0 2 1 6 Grade: D
Thompson (STL) 6.1 8 2 2 4 5 69% 56%
2.0 4 1 0 1 2 Grade: B-
Davis (ARI) 5.2 7 1 3 4 3 38% 25%
4.0 7 0 2 3 4 Grade: B
Litsch (TOR) 5.1 6 0 2 3 3 31% 18%
5.0 7 3 0 5 3 Grade: B-
Shields (TBD) 6.2 8 1 1 6 3 40% 25%
7.0 4 1 0 5 2 Grade: B
Bergmann (WSN) 5.0 5 1 2 5 3 30% 17%
6.0 4 1 2 6 3 Grade: A
Cormier (ATL) 5.1 6 1 2 4 3 43% 27%
6.0 7 1 1 5 4 Grade: A-
Big Games:
Ortiz (0/4)
McLouth (0/3, 1R)
Nady (DNP)
M.Cabrera (1/3, 1R)
H.Ramirez (1/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI)
Howard (DNP)
Burrell (2/4, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI)
Fielder (2/5, 1R)
Braun (2/4, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI)
Dunn (0/4)
Hamilton (0/1)
Morneau (1/4, 1RBI)
Konerko (0/4)
Thome (1/2, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI)
A-Rod (2/4, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI)
Kinsler (0/2, 3R)
Greene (0/3, 1R)
A.Gonzalez (0/4)
Sheffield (0/3, 1R)
Ordonez (2/4, 1R, 3RBI)
Pujols (1/4, 1RBI)
C.Young (1/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI)
C.Jackson (DNP)
C.Pena (3/4, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI)
Stairs (0/3)
Zimmerman (1/5, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI)
Kearns (1/5, 1R)
Teixeira (2/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI)
C.Jones (1/3, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI)
Totals (29): 24/93, 24 R, 11 HR, 24 RBI, Grade: C
Game Winners: Boston (W), Pittsburgh (W), Angels (L), Philadelphia (toss-up - W), Mets (W), San Francisco (W), Milwaukee (W), White Sox (L), Yankees (W), Texas (W), San Diego (L), Detroit (L), Arizona (W), Tampa Bay (W), Washington (W)
Totals: 11-4, Grade: A
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Brewers Try to Blow It Again
Milwaukee gave up two unearned runs tonight, and in the 9th, with the game on the line, Weeks blew a basic 6-4-3 double play with a lollipop, off-the-mark throw to Fielder. No error, because you can't assume the double-play. (A stupid rule by the way).
Last night there was only one error, but there were a slew of misplays. Not all of the Brewers screw ups are showing in the box scores.
Weeks' misplay put two fast runners on base (Pence and Burke) with only a two run lead, and Berkman and Lee coming up. Fortunately, Cordero was able to strike out Berkman and get Lee on a 5-3 groundout. That's a tribute to Cordero, and a milestone too, as he set the Brewer record for single season saves (40).
Maybe Cordero should have been in the game last night.
Last night there was only one error, but there were a slew of misplays. Not all of the Brewers screw ups are showing in the box scores.
Weeks' misplay put two fast runners on base (Pence and Burke) with only a two run lead, and Berkman and Lee coming up. Fortunately, Cordero was able to strike out Berkman and get Lee on a 5-3 groundout. That's a tribute to Cordero, and a milestone too, as he set the Brewer record for single season saves (40).
Maybe Cordero should have been in the game last night.
Monday, September 03, 2007
Brewers and Yost
The Brewers are not a championship team, and they do not have a championship manager. Today, after Sheets pitched well enough and the Brewers blew the lead, the Brewers' owner gave Yost a vote of confidence. Why?
Surely the two misplays in the outfield (Gross and Hall) were not Yost's fault. Nor was the poor baserunning by Johnny Estrada, who appears to be eyeing the "slowest man in MLB" title from Bengie Molina. Watching Estrada huff it to third today, I thought "He is the fattest man I've ever seen play baseball." Fatter than Kruk, Joey Meyer, Terry Forster and Sid Fernandez.
Where Yost should be castigated is managing the bullpen, because he is playing by some stupid rule that developed with the save stat, which says you only use your closer in the 9th. He brings in Turnbow in the 8th, which is fine, since he is the setup guy. But when Turnbow can't get the job done, Yost looks first to Brian Shouse, who gets the lefty, and then to journeymen Greg Aquino and Chris Spurling, who proceed to lose the game for Milwaukee.
Ned, aren't you trying to WIN? This is a pennant race. Are you going to miss the playoffs because you pitched Aquino and Spurling, when Cordero -- your bona fide closer with 39 saves -- sits on his ass? Maybe Frankie wouldn't have gotten the necessary outs, but you'd be going down with your best, not a couple of retread middle relievers.
Surely the two misplays in the outfield (Gross and Hall) were not Yost's fault. Nor was the poor baserunning by Johnny Estrada, who appears to be eyeing the "slowest man in MLB" title from Bengie Molina. Watching Estrada huff it to third today, I thought "He is the fattest man I've ever seen play baseball." Fatter than Kruk, Joey Meyer, Terry Forster and Sid Fernandez.
Where Yost should be castigated is managing the bullpen, because he is playing by some stupid rule that developed with the save stat, which says you only use your closer in the 9th. He brings in Turnbow in the 8th, which is fine, since he is the setup guy. But when Turnbow can't get the job done, Yost looks first to Brian Shouse, who gets the lefty, and then to journeymen Greg Aquino and Chris Spurling, who proceed to lose the game for Milwaukee.
Ned, aren't you trying to WIN? This is a pennant race. Are you going to miss the playoffs because you pitched Aquino and Spurling, when Cordero -- your bona fide closer with 39 saves -- sits on his ass? Maybe Frankie wouldn't have gotten the necessary outs, but you'd be going down with your best, not a couple of retread middle relievers.
Sunday, September 02, 2007
The Genius of John and Joe
ESPN Sunday Night Baseball has been on exactly 4 minutes as I start typing this. The first minute and a half includes the graphics, music, etc.
Then John and Joe get us started. Joe tells us that Vlad is the MVP this year. John tells us the Rangers scored 30 runs last week, the "all-time record."
John's statement is worse. Joe's is an opinion...a poorly formed opinion, but still an opinion. John's statement purports to be fact, but is simply untrue. What's disgusting is that there were plenty of news stories describing the feat, and ESPN has a team of researchers who could easily get the facts straight. It's even worse because they are prepared remarks at the beginning. Nobody can say he got it wrong because there was no time to research.
Normally it's Joe with the flubs, so lets look at where Vlad should rank in the MVP voting so far this year, using Baseball Prospectus' VORP (which does not include defense) and WARP3 (which does include defense).
Guerrero is 5th in VORP and 12th in WARP3, exclusive of pitchers. That would seem to make him an MVP candidate, but look how far behind Rodriguez and Ordonez he is in VORP, and how far behind Rodriguez, Granderson, Suzuki, Ordonez and Roberts he is in WARP3.
None of the pitchers outrank him in VORP, though I'm not sure if VORP is designed for comparisons among hitters and pitchers. In WARP3, he is behind Santana (9.3), and tied with Bedard and his teammate Escobar.
When John just asked him (21 minutes into the broadcast) why he chose Guerrero, Morgan said "'cause I'm watching him play right now. Next time I watch someone else play, I may change my mind."
Also, at minute 22, John referred to the 30-run game again, and this time said it was the most runs in the "modern era."
Then John and Joe get us started. Joe tells us that Vlad is the MVP this year. John tells us the Rangers scored 30 runs last week, the "all-time record."
John's statement is worse. Joe's is an opinion...a poorly formed opinion, but still an opinion. John's statement purports to be fact, but is simply untrue. What's disgusting is that there were plenty of news stories describing the feat, and ESPN has a team of researchers who could easily get the facts straight. It's even worse because they are prepared remarks at the beginning. Nobody can say he got it wrong because there was no time to research.
Normally it's Joe with the flubs, so lets look at where Vlad should rank in the MVP voting so far this year, using Baseball Prospectus' VORP (which does not include defense) and WARP3 (which does include defense).
Player VORP WARP3
Rodriguez 81.0 13.1
Granderson 53.6 12.2
Suzuki 57.5 11.7
Ordonez 73.1 11.0
Roberts 49.2 10.3
Jeter 44.6 9.4
C.Pena 45.4 9.3
Rios 40.5 9.3
Posada 57.0 9.2
V.Martinez 49.5 9.1
O.Cabrera 32.4 9.0
Guerrero 57.1 8.9
Guerrero is 5th in VORP and 12th in WARP3, exclusive of pitchers. That would seem to make him an MVP candidate, but look how far behind Rodriguez and Ordonez he is in VORP, and how far behind Rodriguez, Granderson, Suzuki, Ordonez and Roberts he is in WARP3.
None of the pitchers outrank him in VORP, though I'm not sure if VORP is designed for comparisons among hitters and pitchers. In WARP3, he is behind Santana (9.3), and tied with Bedard and his teammate Escobar.
When John just asked him (21 minutes into the broadcast) why he chose Guerrero, Morgan said "'cause I'm watching him play right now. Next time I watch someone else play, I may change my mind."
Also, at minute 22, John referred to the 30-run game again, and this time said it was the most runs in the "modern era."
More Bruce Froemming?
Well, I didn't expect to have two Bruce Froemming posts in one season, but...
I was watching the Cubs on WGN, and Milt Pappas was a guest in the broadcast booth to discuss his no-hitter as a Cub in 1972 (34 years ago today) against the Padres. He was one pitch from a perfect game, but walked pinch hitter Larry Stahl.
Bob Brenly asked him if he was disappointed at not getting the perfect game. Here's the answer I expected: "It was late in my career and I was happy to have the no-hitter. It would have been nice to have a complete game, but I am proud of my accomplishment."
That's NOT what he said. Here's what he said (paraphrased, though this is very close to a direct quote): I was excited, but also disappointed. "That idio...Froemming, should have retired 35 years ago." Y'know when Don Larsen pitched his complete game in the 1956 World Series, that final strike was three feet out of the strike zone, but the umpire knew it was a perfect game. In my game Froemming called it a ball. (WGN shows video of Froemming's call, then Pappas yelling at Froemming, and Froemming with a wry grin on his face). "See, that's what really got me. That smirk." I could have had it but Froemming didn't give it to me. "After the game he asked me to sign the ball, and I said 'Sure Bruce, I'll sign it, and you know where you can stick it!'"
Wow. On the one hand, I like the raw honesty. You hardly ever see that. On the other, he's awfully bitter. I don't think Froemming has any obligation to give him a strike if it wasn't a strike. It was clearly a ball.
On the other hand, the pitch was totally meaningless to the ballgame and pennant races. Froemming could have called it a strike. Pappas had an 8-0 lead, and the Padres were horrible at the time: 46-80. Only three players in their starting lineup that day had an OPS over 650, and Cito Gaston was one of them with a 660. The others were Nate Colbert (a legit hitter sporting an 851) and little known Leron Lee with an 876. Lee is current Cub Derrek Lee's uncle. Also in the lineup for the Pads was Fred Kendall, current Cub Jason Kendall's dad.
I haven't checked, but I imagine this no-hitter was achieved against as weak a lineup as any no-hitter in history.
Guess it's a good thing Froemming wasn't umping the Houston-Chicago game today, because Pappas threw out the first pitch. Twice. He bounced the first one and wanted another shot. I guess that's just part of his personality.
I was watching the Cubs on WGN, and Milt Pappas was a guest in the broadcast booth to discuss his no-hitter as a Cub in 1972 (34 years ago today) against the Padres. He was one pitch from a perfect game, but walked pinch hitter Larry Stahl.
Bob Brenly asked him if he was disappointed at not getting the perfect game. Here's the answer I expected: "It was late in my career and I was happy to have the no-hitter. It would have been nice to have a complete game, but I am proud of my accomplishment."
That's NOT what he said. Here's what he said (paraphrased, though this is very close to a direct quote): I was excited, but also disappointed. "That idio...Froemming, should have retired 35 years ago." Y'know when Don Larsen pitched his complete game in the 1956 World Series, that final strike was three feet out of the strike zone, but the umpire knew it was a perfect game. In my game Froemming called it a ball. (WGN shows video of Froemming's call, then Pappas yelling at Froemming, and Froemming with a wry grin on his face). "See, that's what really got me. That smirk." I could have had it but Froemming didn't give it to me. "After the game he asked me to sign the ball, and I said 'Sure Bruce, I'll sign it, and you know where you can stick it!'"
Wow. On the one hand, I like the raw honesty. You hardly ever see that. On the other, he's awfully bitter. I don't think Froemming has any obligation to give him a strike if it wasn't a strike. It was clearly a ball.
On the other hand, the pitch was totally meaningless to the ballgame and pennant races. Froemming could have called it a strike. Pappas had an 8-0 lead, and the Padres were horrible at the time: 46-80. Only three players in their starting lineup that day had an OPS over 650, and Cito Gaston was one of them with a 660. The others were Nate Colbert (a legit hitter sporting an 851) and little known Leron Lee with an 876. Lee is current Cub Derrek Lee's uncle. Also in the lineup for the Pads was Fred Kendall, current Cub Jason Kendall's dad.
I haven't checked, but I imagine this no-hitter was achieved against as weak a lineup as any no-hitter in history.
Guess it's a good thing Froemming wasn't umping the Houston-Chicago game today, because Pappas threw out the first pitch. Twice. He bounced the first one and wanted another shot. I guess that's just part of his personality.
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