Why Does Soriano Hit Leadoff?

I've spent the entire year wondering why the Cubs have Soriano in the first spot in the order. He doesn't have a high OBP (.332), yet he has a ton of power. He now has 30 HR, but because he hits first, only 61 RBI.

Over at Baseball Musings Cyril Myrong, Ken Arneson and Ryan Armbrust have a lineup optimizer based on their research. I plugged in the most common Cub lineup, as follows:

Soriano
Theriot
Lee
Ramirez
Floyd
DeRosa
Jones
Kendall
Pitcher (I used Marquis).

According to the lineup optimizer, this should produce 4.664 runs per game for the Cubs. The Cubs have actually scored 4.62 runs per game this year. That's damned close, considering all the lineup variations they have used (120, not counting pitchers).

Cubs pitching has given up 4.29 runs per game. Using pythagenport to estimate what the Cubs' record should be based on runs scored and runs allowed, we get 82-72. Their actual record is 81-73. So far, so good with our predictive measures.

The lineup optimizer says that the Cubs best lineup (assuming those same 9 players) is as follows:

DeRosa
Lee
Theriot
Ramirez
Floyd
Soriano
Jones
Marquis
Kendall

According to the lineup optimizer, this batting order would produce 5.102 runs per game. Substitute that into our pythagenport and the Cubs record would be 90-64, a whopping 8 wins better than predicted with their common lineup.

In fact, in the top 8 run producing combos for the Cubs with these 9 players, Soriano hits sixth each time. In the other top 17 scenarios, he hits either sixth or fourth.

If this is accurate, there shouldn't even be a pennant race in the NL Central.

Cubs Whining

Last night and tonight, the Astros are starting rookie pitchers against the Brewers. The Brewers and Cubs are tied in the NL Central. The Cubs claim the Astros are acting inappropriately by starting the rookies against their division rivals.

Here's why the Astros are doing it. Roy Oswalt was scheduled to start last night. His wife had a baby. He couldn't make the start. A rookie started in his place.

Woody Williams' turn in the rotation was tonight. He's 40. He told management he didn't want to start. He wanted to give the young guys a chance and he wanted to move to the bullpen.

The Astros were courteous enough to make a phone call to the Cubs and explain the reasons. The Cubs return courtesy with sniping.

Orel Hershiser and Steve Phillips (of ESPN) say a team has to start its best players in the games that affect the standings, and play the rookies in the other games. This, they say, is "maintaining the integrity of the game."

I disagree. I believe maintaining the integrity of the game means doing what you would do normally, without regard to who you are playing. If, as the Astros maintain, these two rookies would have started even if they were playing a non-contending team, then I believe they are acting with integrity.

I don't understand how it is more above-board for a team to stack its best players against the contending teams. Is that what happened all year, or did the stars sometimes sit against the best teams because it happened to be their scheduled day off?

The Reds say they'll play Griffey against the good teams, and sit him against the bad teams. How is that integrity? That, in fact, is gaming the system. Griffey should sit on his regularly scheduled days off, regardless of opponent.