Vernon Wells
The two-time all-star and silver slugger winner has had a dismal season. He's sporting a .730 OPS. His previous low was .762 in his first full season. Since then, he has averaged .850. He's unlikely to reach 20 HR, a mark he has never missed since becoming a regular, and to likely surpass his single-season strikeout mark.
He's only 28. This wasn't supposed to happen. He's performing at about the 10th percentile of his PECOTA projection.
The problem seems to be that he has stopped hitting righties. He has a miserable .698 OPS against them this year, which is .242 below his lefty mark. Last year he had a .900 against righties, with no noticeable platoon split. But 2005 and 2004 presented clues. In 2005 he hit righties at .689, a whopping .392 below his lefty performance, and in 2004 hit .757, .187 below his lefty performance.
It's looking like 2006 was a fluke.
J.D. Drew
Drew has never stayed healthy enough to be an all-star, but he has generally played all-star caliber baseball. He rarely posts an OPS+ less than 125. This year he's got a 94 with an OPS of .739, a terrible figure for a corner outfielder, with only 7 HR. His strikeout and walk rates are about the same, but his batting average is below normal.
The problem is almost entirely in the power dep't. His BABIP is not out of whack, so it isn't just bad luck. He's simply not driving the ball. Despite all his potential, he is now 31 and is likely on the downswing. Still, it was not anticipated. Like Wells, he's almost pegging his 10th percentile PECOTA projection.
Richie Sexson
Never a well-rounded hitter, Sexson has relied almost entirely on his HR prowess for a roster spot. His OPS lives in the high 800s/low 900s because he always hits about 30 HR and 30 doubles while lingering a little below league average on his BA.
This year he has barely stayed above the Mendoza line and his power numbers are way down. Strangely, he has actually cut down on his strikeouts a little bit, but his walk rate has been declining too. His line drive percentage has dipped substantially as well.
There are two other key factors: His BABIP is very low for his LD%, so there's a lot of bad luck in that batting average. More importantly, fewer of his fly balls are leaving the yard, a downward trend that began in 2004. He is not even achieving the 10th percentile of his PECOTA projection. At age 32, PECOTA will not be generous next year (I suspect).
Carlos Delgado
One of my favorite players. He just looks cool (visually and temperamentally) at the plate. He's still past 20 HR and 80 RBI, but he's probably not going to play much before the playoffs. He'll finish with his lowest OPS+ in his career (though still better than average). Better than average is not good enough for a first baseman, though. A .774 is good for a shortstop, not a first baseman.
He has had a lot of nagging injuries this year, but before that he got off to a really slow start. The first month and a half of the season he posted a .635 OPS. Since then he has been a respectable .828.
The problem seems to be his plate discipline, posting his lowest walk rate by a substantial margin. He also will post a career-low isolated power figure, primarily because (like Sexson), fewer of his fly balls are leaving the yard. He can't hit at home (.664) and he isn't hitting lefties (.697). Like most lefties, his numbers against lefties are pretty low, but in the past he hasn't been this far off.
His skills may be declining some at age 35, but he's floating between PECOTA's 10th and 25th percentile primarily because of that first month and a half. I wouldn't write him off in 2008, if he's healthy.
Andruw Jones
His bad year is not unprecedented. He did about the same thing in 2001, but he's got even fewer homers this year. His strikeout rate has actually gone up and his walk rate down, which is saying something for this perennial free swinger. From a BA perspective, he's had some bad luck, but like the previous two entries, his fly balls are not leaving the park.
He is below his PECOTA 10th percentile projection. He did have a predicted 20% collapse rate though. Two years ago BP predicted Cooperstown for Jones. BP predicted 2007 to be the same as 2006.
It's mostly inconsistency. In April and July he was well over .900. In June he was below .500! Of course, a large part of Andruw's value has always come from his defensive play. BP shows that has been declining since 2004, as he has been about average in CF since then. With this kind of volatility, it's hard to know what to expect next year.
Scott Rolen
In an injury-plagued career, he has only had one season this bad, and he had half that at-bats that year. It's the power that has disappeared. He is hitting the ball on the ground a lot more, and his fly balls are dying in the outfield. He is also horrible against lefties, which makes no sense. Lefties have always been a problem for him, but not at this level.
He is way below his 10th percentile PECOTA projection, but PECOTA did warn with a 31% collapse rate. At 32, and with a history of injury, we probably won't see the old Rolen again. FWIW, unlike Andruw Jones, Rolen remains a stellar defender.
Jim Edmonds
This poor year is more easily explainable by his age (37) and his increasing tendency to get hurt. This is likely his worst full-season ever (which was true last year too -- not a promising trend).
Even with all that, he is still at only the 10th percentile in PECOTA. A 54% collapse rate was a giant red flag, though. It's hard to know what next year holds, but he should not get at bats against lefties, against whom he is striking out every third at-bat. With declining defensive skills, Edmonds is rapidly approaching a pinch hitting role against righties, which might be hard for him to swallow. It's time for retirement.
Lance Berkman
Maybe he shouldn't be on this list, with an OPS+ of 125, but this is a guy we expect to see with an OPS+ of 145 and one of the toughest hitters in the game. Instead, we've seen a substantial increase in strikeouts, and fewer walks. His contact is more often on the ground. His homers are not substantially down, but his doubles are significantly reduced.
So despite numbers that many players would be happy with, he's around his 10th percentile PECOTA projection, except for his homers, which are around the 40th percentile. He's a far cry from finishing as a top 5 MVP candidate (which he has done twice), but he ought to be able to turn it around next year.
Perhaps he was simply depressed about the Astros running Biggio out there every day, indicating more willingness to appease a Hall of Famer than contending for a championship.
Jason Bay
Bay is distinguished by being the youngest and most promising guy on this list. At age 28 and in his prime, we did not expect he'd hit worse than an average major leaguer, particularly from a corner outfield spot. He's striking out about the same, but his walk rate has evaporated...almost half as frequent as last year.
He seems to be swinging at pitches he did not swing at before, and hitting weak fly balls for outs. Perhaps his knee is not 100%, indicated by only 5 steal attempts and that he has gone from a good right fielder to a below-average one.
He is far below his 10th percentile prediction. I don't think anyone saw this coming, though the injury caused PECOTA to generate a 36% collapse rate. Just what the Pirates needed.
Marcus Giles
Unlike the other guys here, he was never a hitting superstar, but he was a solid second baseman who frequently would post an OPS in the low 800s. Last year it dipped to the low 700s. Now it is in the low 600s and he has lost his starting spot.
PECOTA's mean projection was negative about Giles, and he still managed to come in below the 10th percentile. That's saying something. It isn't clear what the problem is, except that his good years benefited from some lucky BABIP numbers, which have now normalized.
His defense remains good, so he will probably hang around awhile. He's only 29, but his bat seems finished. The good news is that Blum (his replacement) is not any better, and is actually a worse defender. Giles will stick at least in a backup role somewhere.
Nomar Garciaparra
After an excellent comeback year, we expected better than an OPS+ of 76, from a first baseman/third baseman, no less. No wonder he's lost in the shuffle of Dodger youngsters.
His power is a distant memory. Most teams cannot tolerate 6 HR in 400+ ABs from a corner infielder. In fact, many teams would not tolerate a sub .100 ISO from middle infielders and catchers. His walk and strikeout rates are the same. He just has no power. He isn't driving the ball, and instead, is hitting grounders. Like the other guys, he's at his 10th percentile projection in PECOTA.
The only place he hits is Dodger Stadium, so there may not be much of a market elsewhere. Do the Dodgers want to hang on to a 34 year old replacement level player with all the talent in their minor league system?
Ray Durham
Another old guy. He's been average or better his entire career. A 66 OPS+? Are you kidding? And he has been playing every day, doing huge damage to a SF team that cannot afford it.
Scariest of all, he got off to a decent start. Since May 1, his OPS is .610. Since June 1, .597. Since the all-star break, .483. I can't believe the Giants didn't have somebody they could plug in to produce better numbers than that. But not only did the Giants leave him in the starting lineup, his most common lineup position was 3rd in the order!
Adding insult to injury, his defense has been 1 run below replacement and 18 runs below average! Nothing less than total disaster at 36 years old.
PECOTA did not see this coming. He is way way below the 10th percentile, and his collapse rate was only 16%, with an improve rate of 47%.
Durham gets the award for biggest collapse among former stars.
