Griff stands at 593 homers. I know it is a big part of the accomplishment to stay healthy. Bottom line, Griffey didn't do it. Still, I thought it would be fun to try and project what his home runs would have been without the injuries.
Griffey's principal injury years were 94-95 with Seattle, and 01-04, and 06 with Cincinnati. To project the number of games he should have played in the injury years, I'll average the healthy year prior to the injury year, and the healthy year after the injury year, and assume the same rate of plate appearances and homers as during the injury year.
Year Actual HR Revised HR
89 16 16
90 22 22
91 22 22
92 27 27
93 45 45
94 40 52
95 17 35
96 49 49
97 56 56
98 56 56
99 48 48
00 40 40
01 22 27
02 8 16
03 13 34
04 20 33
05 35 35
06 27 33
07 30 30
---- ----
593 676
That's 83 more homers. He would only need to hit 87 more to pass Bonds, if Bonds retires at the end of the year. And Griffey is five years younger than Bonds.
Alas, wishin' don't make it so. Something to keep in mind when you see that A-Rod is "on pace" to break the all-time record.
Weird stat: Griffey has grounded into more double plays than Bonds, despite 3 fewer seasons and all the injuries. That's the advantage of Bonds' high walk rate.
Weirder stat: A-Rod has grounded into only 3 fewer double plays than Griffey, and more than Bonds, despite being only 31.
