Sunday, September 02, 2007

The Genius of John and Joe

ESPN Sunday Night Baseball has been on exactly 4 minutes as I start typing this. The first minute and a half includes the graphics, music, etc.

Then John and Joe get us started. Joe tells us that Vlad is the MVP this year. John tells us the Rangers scored 30 runs last week, the "all-time record."

John's statement is worse. Joe's is an opinion...a poorly formed opinion, but still an opinion. John's statement purports to be fact, but is simply untrue. What's disgusting is that there were plenty of news stories describing the feat, and ESPN has a team of researchers who could easily get the facts straight. It's even worse because they are prepared remarks at the beginning. Nobody can say he got it wrong because there was no time to research.

Normally it's Joe with the flubs, so lets look at where Vlad should rank in the MVP voting so far this year, using Baseball Prospectus' VORP (which does not include defense) and WARP3 (which does include defense).


Player VORP WARP3

Rodriguez 81.0 13.1
Granderson 53.6 12.2
Suzuki 57.5 11.7
Ordonez 73.1 11.0
Roberts 49.2 10.3
Jeter 44.6 9.4
C.Pena 45.4 9.3
Rios 40.5 9.3
Posada 57.0 9.2
V.Martinez 49.5 9.1
O.Cabrera 32.4 9.0
Guerrero 57.1 8.9


Guerrero is 5th in VORP and 12th in WARP3, exclusive of pitchers. That would seem to make him an MVP candidate, but look how far behind Rodriguez and Ordonez he is in VORP, and how far behind Rodriguez, Granderson, Suzuki, Ordonez and Roberts he is in WARP3.

None of the pitchers outrank him in VORP, though I'm not sure if VORP is designed for comparisons among hitters and pitchers. In WARP3, he is behind Santana (9.3), and tied with Bedard and his teammate Escobar.

When John just asked him (21 minutes into the broadcast) why he chose Guerrero, Morgan said "'cause I'm watching him play right now. Next time I watch someone else play, I may change my mind."

Also, at minute 22, John referred to the 30-run game again, and this time said it was the most runs in the "modern era."