Sunday, July 29, 2007

Morgan Ensberg

With the Astros maintaining an illusion of contending for a playoff spot, and acquiring Ty Wigginton, they have designated Morgan Ensberg for assignment.

It reminds me how quickly fortunes change for professional athletes. Two years ago Ensberg was an All-Star, and finished 4th(!) in the MVP voting. Last year there was a dip in production, and most people think he had a bad year. But he was still a useful player. His .235 batting average in 2006 looks bad, but he was still managing nearly a .400 OBP even with that horrible average. The average third baseman in the National League in 2006 had an OPS of 826. Ensberg had an 859.

Less than a year later, and he has no major league job. The average third baseman this year has an OPS of 787, and Ensberg is at only 707, which isn't particularly good at any position.

His fielding has also declined. In 2005 and 2006, he was very good defensively, according to BP's FRAA and FRAR. This year, he's not only below average, he is below replacement level. The wheels have come off.

How? He got hurt last year. He started 2006 on fire, with 17 HR in April and May, with lots of walks. Then he hurt his shoulder. After that, he was basically useless at the plate.

BP 2007 says he is not a favorite of Phil Garner, and predicted he'd be traded. But, BP also thought he'd put up an 850 OPS with 20+ HR. I guess without those numbers, the Astros have no way to move him to another team. The Astros GM indicated that he didn't think Triple A made sense for Ensberg, so I suspect that if he isn't traded in 10 days, he's going to be out of baseball for awhile.

Can anyone use him? You wouldn't think so, if these are indicative of his ability, particularly since he is 31 years old. But check out Minnesota's production at third base. Punto/Rodriguez/Buscher have combined for a VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) of -27.2. That's horrible. It is very difficult to be that bad at a position. Almost anyone would be better.

Ensberg might not improve that, but I hardly see how they could do worse. I guess it depends on how expensive he is. Since homers fly out in Minnesota's ballpark, and Ensberg has a little pop, he might be useful. Minnesota's DHs are also below water in VORP, so he could fill in there too.