Sac flies make you frown and switch to another game on MLBtv.com.
I started to wonder if players actually try to hit sac flies to score runs, or if they really represent a failed plate appearance. I find it difficult to believe that a hitter, early in the count, is concentrating on a fly out instead of trying to get a base hit. I would think that players, once they get 2 strikes and the probabilities of a base hit have dwindled, look for a pitch they can get in the air to score the run. It's like saying, "I'm in a hole. I may get a hit, but probably not. How can I salvage this plate appearance? Maybe I can get it in the air deep enough to score the run."
I took a quick look at the 2007 splits so far this year. Here is the list of how many sac flies occurred with 0 strikes, 1 strike and 2 strikes on the hitter, and the plate appearances:
Strikes SF PA Pct.
0 353 28,753 1.2%
1 301 34,957 0.8%
2 272 56,673 0.4%
That's weird. The fewer strikes on the hitter, the better chance of a sac fly. Sac flies may be totally random, or hitters may be trying early in the count to hit a sac fly. Maybe as the number of strikes increase, hitters feel less ability to control the outcome. That is certainly true with respect to getting on base. Perhaps the same phenomenon occurs with sac flies.
Let's try 2006, in case 2007 is an anomaly:
Strikes SF PA Pct.
0 520 40,653 1.2%
1 460 53,498 0.8%
2 416 87,743 0.4%
Exactly the same. This tends to negate the thought that sac flies are random.
Out of curiosity, let's look at Chipper's career sac flies (split data is incomplete before 2000):
Strikes SF PA Pct.
0 36 2,612 1.4%
1 24 2,141 1.1%
2 13 2,954 0.4%
I'm going to have to think about this some more.
