Saturday, July 21, 2007

Mistaken Platoon Splits

The Braves have decided to put Kelly Johnson at 2b when they face righties, and Yunel Escobar there when they face lefties.

Let's look at the splits. Johnson definitely ought to play against righties. A 913 OPS from your second baseman is nothing to sneeze at. Escobar is a poor 651 against righties. That portion of the platoon is working.

Now for the lefties. Escobar has a 790 OPS against lefties, which is pretty good. Kelly Johnson, however, has a 789 OPS against lefties -- nearly identical. Assuming that major leaguers hit better when they get lots of at bats, why sit Johnson against lefties when he is just as good as his platoon partner?

Could it be defense? Absolutely not. Escobar is very average defensively. Better than replacement, but -1 FRAA according to BP. Johnson, on the other hand, is superb. He is +16 FRAR and +9 FRAA. That 10 run difference on defense is worth a win.

Why, then, is Escobar playing against lefties? Because he has a very high batting average (.338) against them, and for some reason, that still blinds managers to what's best for the team.

Several books have been written about the Braves eschewing statistical analysis, including one by John Schuerholz ("Built to Win: Inside Stories and Leadership Strategies from Baseball's Winningest GM") and a horribly one-sided Braves-commissioned piece of crap ("Scout's Honor: The Bravest Way To Build A Winning Team" -- one of the worst sports books I've read*).

Perhaps they ought to get on the statistics bandwagon, because they are wasting one of the best second basemen in the game.

*You can read my review of the book at Amazon.com