Saturday, February 17, 2007

Alternative Hall of Fame -- Methods (HoF Standards)

In "Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame," Bill James created the "Hall of Fame Standards." The method was not designed to say who should be in the Hall of Fame in any absolute sense, but rather to determine who is likely to be elected to the Hall of Fame based on the standards that the Hall of Fame seems to apply -- assuming there are any. The idea is that if a player's Hall of Fame Standards score is in the range of the Hall of Fame Standards scores of players actually elected, he too is likely to be elected.

The system was designed so that the average Hall of Famer scored a 50. For hitters James evaluated hits, batting average, runs, RBI, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, home runs, extra base hits, stolen basis and walks, plus a defensive adjustment. For pitchers James evaluated wins, win pct., games, ERA, strikeouts, walks per nine innings, hits per nine innings, innings pitched, complete games and shutouts. All this was done with career numbers. You can get a player's Hall of Fame Standards score on Baseball Reference.com.

I took the system "as is," with the following changes.

(1) The numbers I use are not actual totals, but the normalized totals I develop for each player. That means they are adjusted for run scoring environment, park factors and season-length. A few are not adjusted that way. Games played, complete games and shutouts are not adjusted at all. Pitcher strikeouts, BB/9 and H/9 are park-adjusted, but not adjusted for run scoring environment or season-length.

(2) Because a typical HoF Standards score differs among positions played, the HoF Standards totals required to get a particular grade are lower for players on the left end of the defensive spectrum (and relief pitchers) than players on the right end of the spectrum (and starting pitchers). For instance, it takes 56 points to get an "A" if you are a right fielder, but only 50 to get an "A" if you are a shortstop (and the shortstop also gets some positional points under the Bill James system).

The ranges I use for each position are based on a study I did of the HoF Standards scores of players in the Hall of Fame, categorized by position played.

The Hall of Fame Standards test gets a normal weight in the GPA.