Sunday, July 06, 2008

Predict-a-Matic: July 6, 2008

Another change to the system. Instead of predicting the percentage over and under my prediction, I've simply added the percentage chances that the pitcher will have an excellent game or a poor game. Excellent is a game score performance in the top 25% (GS >=62) or bottom 25% (GS <=36). Boom games are reserved for pitchers with a very high chance of GS >=65 and a very low chance of a GS <=35. Bust games are reserved for pitchers with a very high chance of FS <=35 and a very low chance of a GS >=65.

Also, two of the three pitchers I most often get wrong (Perkins and the Big Unit) are pitching today. Predicting big things from Randy, so he'll probably be gone by the 4th innning.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Millwood (TEX)  5.5  7   0   2   4   3  45  21%  32%
Liz (BAL)       4.6  4   1   3   5   2  50  24%  23%
Hochevar (KCR)  5.6  6   1   3   4   3  47  23%  26%
Shields (TBR)   6.9  7   1   1   6   2  60  51%   8%
Rodriguez (HOU) 5.5  6   -   2   5   2  53  32%  19%
Morton (ATL)    6.1  6   0   2   4   1  58  47%  10%
Harden (OAK)    5.4  5   -   2   6   2  54  40%  15%
Danks (CHW)     5.5  6   1   2   5   2  53  29%  24%
Perez (NYM)     5.0  5   1   3   5   3  46  17%  33%
Kendrick (PHI)  5.4  7   1   1   2   3  44  18%  32%
Lee (CLE)       6.6  6   0   1   5   2  59  48%  12%
Perkins (MIN)   6.4  7   1   2   5   2  54  37%  17%
Duke (PIT)      5.2  7   1   1   2   3  43  13%  37%
Suppan (MIL)    6.0  6   0   2   3   2  52  31%  21%
Litsch (TOR)    5.6  7   1   1   3   3  45  19%  30%
Garland (LAA)   6.3  7   0   2   3   2  52  29%  23%
Hendrickson(FLA)5.5  6   1   2   4   3  47  22%  28%
Cook (COL)      6.0  8   1   2   3   3  45  20%  31%
Marshall (CHC)  5.0  5   1   2   4   2  50  24%  19%
Wellemeyer (STL)6.1  6   1   2   5   2  54  33%  20%
Wakefield (BOS) 5.7  6   1   3   4   3  47  24%  28%
Chamberlain(NYY)       (unreliable data)
Stults (LAD)    6.2  7   0   2   5   2  54  37%  16%
Cain (SFG)      6.3  6   0   2   6   2  57  46%  13%
Banks (SDP)     5.4  7   1   2   3   3  43  13%  38%
Johnson (ARI)   5.9  6   1   1   7   2  57  42%  12%

Pitcher Boom Games: Shields, Morton, C.Lee, Cain, R.Johnson

Pitcher Bust Games: O.Perez, Duke, Banks

Hitter Boom Games: Arod, Giambi, Aramis, Pujols, Glaus, Ross, Hanley, Holliday, Atkins, Chipper, Teixeira, C.Pena, Wright, Delgado, Burrell, Utley, Cust, Ellis, Fielder, Cameron, McLouth, A.Gonzalez, C.Young, Tracy, Hamilton, Bradley, Millar, Vlad, Napoli

Hitter Bust Games: Youkilis, Crisp, Kennedy, D.Young, Casilla, Quintanilla, Tejada, Pence, G.Blanco, Gload, Olivo, Iwamura, Bartlett, Kemp, Hannahan, Cabrera, Pierzynski, E.Gonzalez, Figgins

Game Winners: Yankees, Cubs*, Cleveland, Colorado, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Oakland, Milwaukee, Arizona, Texas, Angels