Kenny Rogers T.V. Etiquette

How in the world did Kenny Rogers ever pitch in New York? Arlington, Texas is not exactly sporting the biggest media spotlight. And this is Rogers' 12th year with the Rangers. He's got to know most of these people by now.




You've got a couple of local t.v. cameras shooting him walking onto the field to warm up. No one interviews him. No one berates him. He's just in a bad mood, so he decides to push around a little videographer and break his $50,000 camera.




Apparently Rogers has been miffed with the media all season, because they accused him of not being willing to pitch with the Rangers unless some contract modifications were made. The horror!




I am not particularly sympathetic to media intrusion or sensationalism, but neither of those things were present here. Kenny, you are a major league baseball player. You're gonna be on t.v. To me this is no better than Milton Bradley attacking fans.




Win Shares does not take into account whether a player is a jerk. In light of Rogers' behavior today, I feel justified in revoking his All-Star spot and handing it to the next best starter judged by Win Shares. So congratulations to his teammate Chris Young. Chris, I wish you had a better role model.

Win Shares All-Star Pitchers

Here's who the pitchers on the All-Star team ought to be, according to WS as calculated by The Hardball Times. For this purpose, I've used 7 starters and 3 relievers.




AL




Buehrle, Chi.

Halladay, Tor.

Garland, Chi.

Rogers, Tex.

Colon, L.A.

Clement, Bos.

Santana, Min.

P.Walker, Tor.

Shields, L.A.

Politte, Cle.




Quite a non-traditional list of starters, other than former Cy Young winners Halladay and Santana. And how 'bout those relievers. Not a closer among them. Of course, those three relievers will never be invited to the game. If you'd like all three to be closers, then WS suggests B.J. Ryan (Balt.), Dustin Hermanson (Chi.) and Mariano Rivera (N.Y.)




NL




Clemens, Hou.

Willis, Fla.

Oswalt, Hou.

B.Myers, Phi.

P.Martinez, N.Y.

B.Webb, Ari.

Smoltz, Atl.

Cordero, Was.

Wagner, Phi.

T.Jones, Fla.




These starters are less surprising. Interestingly, all three relievers are closers...and so is Smoltz, for that matter. :)

Win Shares All-Star Reserves

Assuming the manager selects 10 pitchers, that leaves 12 reserve spots in the AL and 13 spots in the NL. Without gerrymandering to fit positions, here's who WS would have as the reserves, according to the calcs at The Hardball Times.




AL




3b....Inge, Det.

ss....Lugo, T.B.

3b....Mora, Balt.

of....Guerrero, L.A.

of....Rowand, Chi.

of....Kotsay, Oak.

1b....Konerko, Chi.

1b....Erstad, L.A. (or of....Emil Brown, see below)

of....Sizemore, Cle.

of....Matsui, N.Y. (or 2b...Chone Figgins, see below)

1b....Sexson, Sea.

of....Crawford, T.B. (or c....Jason Varitek, see below)




That would be one or two too many outfielders, and one too many first baseman. You'd need another 2b and a backup catcher. If you dropped Sexson and Crawford in favor of a 2b and catcher, you'd add Figgins (L.A.) and Varitek (Bos.). But you can't drop Sexson, because he has to be the Seattle representative, so you've got to drop Matsui.




You've still got to find a Kansas City player. Emil Brown is their best. If you keep Sexson, then you are overloaded at 1b, so you could drop Erstad and add Brown.




Lots of young guys on this team. And when's the last time Tampa Bay had a couple of legit All-Stars?




NL




1b....Pujols, Stl.

1b....Johnson, Was.

of....Wilkerson, Was.

of....Dunn, Cin.

2b....Counsell, Ari.

of....Edmonds, Stl.

of....C.Lee, Mil.

1b....Delgado, Fla. (or c....Barrett, see below)

of....B.Clark, Mil.

of....Bay, Pit.

of....Floyd, N.Y. (or ss....Barmes, see below)

of....Drew, L.A. (or of....M.Alou, see below)

3b....Ensberg, Hou.



Here there are probably two too many outfielders and one too many 1b, with no backup catcher or shortstop, and without an extra infielder. If you dropped Drew, Floyd and Delgado (all tough cuts), you could add Michael Barrett (Chi.) as the catcher, Felipe Lopez (Cin.) at shortstop and Aramis Ramirez (Chi.) as an additional infielder.




But you need someone from San Francisco, and someone from Colorado. Clint Barmes is Colorado's best player, so you could use him instead of Lopez. Moises Alou is San Francisco's best player. Better to not add Ramirez at 3b and instead replace J.D. Drew with Alou.

Win Shares All-Star Starters

Using the Win Shares calculated by the folks at The Hardball Times, here are the players who should be leading the All-Star voting:




AL




c....Mauer, Min. (not among top 5 vote getters)

1b....Teixeira, Tex. (currently #1)

2b....B.Roberts, Balt. (currently #1)

3b....A.Rodriguez, N.Y. (currently #1)

ss....Tejada, Balt. (currently #1)

of....Sheffield, N.Y. (currently #5)

of....Damon, Bos. (currently #4)

of....M.Ramirez, Bos. (currently #1)

dh....D.Ortiz, Bos. (currently #1)




The AL voting is about as good as you are going to get, if MLB is going to let the fans vote. The only big miss is at catcher, but the fans are voting for Varitek, who is no slouch.




I've been voting for Posada, Teixeira, Roberts, A-Rod, Michael Young, Ramirez, Sheffield, Guerrero and Ortiz.





NL




c...Schneider, Was. (not among top 5 vote getters)

1b....D.Lee, Chi. (currently #2)

2b....Kent, L.A. (currently #1)

3b....D.Wright, N.Y. (currently #5)

ss....Eckstein, Stl. (currently #2)

of....Abreu, Phi. (currently #1)

of....B.Giles, S.D. (not among top 15 vote getters)

of....L.Gonzalez, Ari. (not among top 15 vote getters)




The fans on the NL side are not doing as good a job. But Brian Schneider? Who knew? And how about Luis Gonzalez, left for dead in Arizona but still plugging away. Quietly having a great career. Interesting that Padres fans have voted in sufficient numbers to get Ramon Hernandez in the 4th slot at catcher (and he was having a good year before he got hurt), but can't get Brian Giles in the top 15.




I've been voting for Michael Barrett, D.Lee, Kent, Ensberg, Barmes, Abreu, Carlos Lee and Cliff Floyd.

St. Louis Cardinals Trades (Best)

Here are the best trades according to Win Shares, in order of worst to best (from the Cards' perspective). A quick note on one trade that cannot yet be completely evaluated: 2002- Rolen and Nickle (Cards) for Polanco, Timlin and Smith (Phils). Currently the Cards lead this by about 15 Win Shares (you probably thought it would be bigger, but Polanco is darn good, though now traded to Detroit). Going forward, it is Rolen vs. Ugueth Urbina and Ramon Martinez.




The winning trades, from worst to best:

Cards get:	Ozzie Smith, Mura, Olmsted
Cards lost:	Templeton, Lezcano, Luis DeLeon
Other Team:	San Diego
Year:	1981
Net WS:	17.5 (6 wins)
#Cards’ players:	3
#Other team’s players	13
Comments:	I would have guessed the Cards would win this one big time, but besides Templeton, Lezcano was great for SD, and Lezcano eventually turned into Lance McCullers, who turned into Jack Clark. Also, at the end of his career Templeton was traded to the Mets and SD got a couple of good years from Tim Teufel in return.

Cards get:	Jack Clark
Cards lost:	Green, LaPoint, Uribe, Gary Rajsich
Other Team:	San Francisco
Year:	1985
Net WS:	54.9 (approx. 18 wins)
#Cards’ players:	1
#Other team’s players	12
Comments:	This one is odd. Uribe actually trumps Clark here, since Clark left St. Louis as a free agent. Plus, the Giants eventually ended up with a couple of good seasons each from Terry Kennedy and Rick Reuschel at the end of their careers. Trouble is, the Giants had to give up Jeff Robinson, Eric King and, importantly, Matt Nokes as throw-ins.

Cards get:	Frisch, Ring
Cards lost:	Hornsby
Other Team:	New York (N)
Year:	1926
Net WS:	60.6 (approx. 20 wins)
#Cards’ players:	6
#Other team’s players	6
Comments:	Hornsby had a great season for the Giants and left, but the Giants got Shanty Hogan in return, and he contributed 75 WS over 5 seasons. Frisch, of course, was outstanding.

Cards get:	Bill White, Jablonski
Cards lost:	Sam Jones, Choate
Other Team:	San Francisco
Year:	1959
Net WS:	72.1 (approx. 24 wins)
#Cards’ players:	26
#Other team’s players	2
Comments:	Giants got a couple of good seasons from Jones, but turned it into nothing. Cards did well with Bill White, but then made a bunch of nickel and dime moves that cost them more in throw-ins than it gained them

Cards get:	McGwire
Cards lost:	Stein, Mathews, Ludwick
Other Team:	Oakland
Year:	1997
Net WS:	77.5 (approx. 26 wins)
#Cards’ players:	1 (just McGwire)
#Other team’s players	7
Comments:	Too bad McGwire retired, because the net WS in this trade would have just kept growing.

Cards get:	Cepeda
Cards lost:	Sadecki
Other Team:	San Francisco
Year:	1966
Net WS:	156 (approx. 52 wins)
#Cards’ players:	8
#Other team’s players	5
Comments:	You think Cepeda was good? The Cards ended up with Joe Torre too! Meanwhile, neither Sadecki nor his trade progeny produced much for the Giants.

Cards get:	Flood, Joe Taylor
Cards lost:	Schmidt, Kutyna,Wieand
Other Team:	Cincinnati
Year:	1957
Net WS:	211.6 (approx. 71 wins)
#Cards’ players:	2
#Other team’s players	3
Comments:	Flood was fantastic. Everyone else was horrible.

Cards get:	Hendrick
Cards lost:	Rasmussen
Other Team:	San Diego
Year:	1978
Net WS:	230.6 (approx. 77 wins)
#Cards’ players:	4
#Other team’s players	1
Comments:	Seven good seasons for Hendrick, and then he turned into John Tudor. Rasmussen never produced and SD never got anything for him.

Cards get:	McGee
Cards lost:	Sykes
Other Team:	New York (A)
Year:	1981
Net WS:	239.6 (approx. 80 wins)
#Cards’ players:	5
#Other team’s players	1
Comments:	Sykes never pitched again. McGee was the center of the great Cards teams in the 1980s, then he turned into Felix Jose (who was pretty good), and Jose turned into Greg Jefferies (a fantastic hitter).

Cards get:	Del Greco, Littlefield
Cards lost:	Virdon
Other Team:	Pittsburgh
Year:	1956
Net WS:	246.8 (approx. 82 wins)
#Cards’ players:	58
#Other team’s players	1
Comments:	This is probably the most shocking of the analyses. Virdon was good for the Pirates, but not a star. Then he retired. Meanwhile the Cards managed to get 58 players in this lineage. Del Greco and Littlefield did absolutely nothing, and along the way the Cards had throw-ins like Jackie Brandt and Red Schoendienst. So how did the Cards come out so far ahead? Two other trades on this list are connected. Littlefield (and others) became Ray Katt, who became Sam Jones, who became Bill White! More importantly, Littlefield (and others) became Ray Katt, who became Hobie Landrith, who became Ernie Broglio, who became Lou Brock. What a segue to the top trade!

Cards get:	Lou Brock, Spring, Toth
Cards lost:	Broglio, Shantz, Clemens
Other Team:	Chicago
Year:	1964
Net WS:	310.8 (approx. 104 wins)
#Cards’ players:	3
#Other team’s players	4
Comments:	This one is self-explanatory.

St. Louis Cardinals Trades (Worst)

Here are the worst trades according to Win Shares, in order of worst to best (from the Cards' perspective). The trades by WS, in order of worst to best (from the Cards' perspective). The categories are self-explanatory, except "# Cards' players" is the number of players eventually connected to the transaction on the Cards side -- with all subsequent trades factored in -- and "# Other teams' players" reflects the same thing for the team with which the Cards made the original trade. You will see that the Cards liked to trade...a lot! And especially when they made a bad deal originally. They frequently grabbed a so-so guy for a year, then either released him, sold him or traded him for a couple more so-so guys.

Cards get:	Rick Wise
Cards lost:	Steve Carlton
Other Team:	Philadelphia (N)
Year:	1972
Net WS:	-278.7 (approx 93 wins)
#Cards’ players:	16
#Other team’s players	1 (just Carlton
Comments:	The Cards got a little out of Wise, and some more out of Reggie Smith, but that was offset by the losses of Bernie Carbo and Mike Vail as throw-ins for subsequent trades. In the end, the Cards got no WS and the Phils got 278.

Cards get:	Dutch Henry, Ogden
Cards lost:	Derringer, Sparky Adams, Stout
Other Team:	Cincinnati
Net WS:	-205.8 (approx 69 wins)
Year:	1933
#Cards’ players:	7
#Other team’s players	7
Comments:	Durocher wasn't too bad, but nobody else contributed. Derringer and Sparky Adams were strong for Cincinnati, and Stout was traded for Billy Myers, who contributed more for Cincy than Durocher did for the Cards.

Cards get:	Allen, Ownbey
Cards lost:	Keith Hernandez
Other Team:	New York (N)
Year:	1983
Net WS:	-125.2 (approx. 42 wins)
#Cards’ players:	2
#Other team’s players	1
Comments:	Allen contributed little and then was sold outright to the Yanks. Ownbey added nothing. You already know about Hernandez.

Cards get:	Granger
Cards lost:	Hisle, Cumberland
Other Team:	Minnesota
Year:	1972
Net WS:	-87.6 (approx. 29 wins)
#Cards’ players:	3
#Other team’s players	2
Comments:	Granger did nothing, and was traded for other players who did nothing. Hisle was good, and this trade would have been worse for the Cards if Hisle had stayed with Minnesota. Instead, he bolted for Milwaukee via free agency.

Cards get:	Lohrman, O’Dea, McCarthy
Cards lost:	Mize
Other Team:	New York (N)
Year:	1941
Net WS:	-72.9 (approx. 24 wins)
#Cards’ players:	4
#Other team’s players	1 (just Mize)
Comments:	Mize was very good for the Giants, but the Yanks purchased him 4 years later. The Cards got a little bit out of O’Dea. This trade is hard to evaluate, because the Cards got $50,000, which bought a couple of decent players back then. But, the Giants probably got a tidy sum when the Yanks bought Mize.

Cards get:	Sizemore, Stinson
Cards lost:	Dick Allen
Other Team:	Los Angeles
Year:	1970
Net WS:	-64.6 (approx. 22 wins)
#Cards’ players:	46
#Other team’s players	3
Comments:	Allen had one good year for LA, but he was traded for Tommy John, who gave the Dodgers a number of solid years. The family tree on the Cards side is a mess: forty-six players in the lineage of this trade. Sizemore was good, but the Cards kept trading. Ultimately, Jack Clark and Lonnie Smith were in the picture and contributed WS. Even Ozzie Smith (with 275 WS) is connected to this trade. So how do the Cards lose? They kept trading, and kept throwing in new players. Unfortunately, the Cards’ throw-in players included Ted Simmons, Terry Kennedy, Garry Templeton, Aurelio Lopez and Jose Uribe (all of whom earned at least 77 WS before ending their careers).

Cards get:	McLean, Jack Taylor
Cards lost:	Three Finger Brown, O’Neill
Other Team:	Chicago (N)
Year:	1903
Net WS:	-6.2 (approx. 2 wins)
#Cards’ players:	7
#Other team’s players	3
Comments:	I thought the Cards would do worse in this trade, but Taylor contributed, then was traded for Beebe who contributed, and Beebe was traded for Rebel Oakes who contributed and Miller Huggins, who really contributed.

St. Louis Cardinals Trades

In the latest issue of The National Pastime, Lyle Spatz describes candidates for the worst and best trades in St. Louis Cardinals history. I decided to apply Win Shares to the trades, as one way of measuring which deals were best and which were worst. Obviously, the Win Shares for the players involved in the trade were part of the equation. However, I also included Win Shares for any players the "deal players" were subsequently dealt for. Also, when those deal players were subsequently dealt, there were other players sometimes thrown in who went with them. I treated those throw-ins, who otherwise would not have had a connection to the deal (some of whom were quite good), as "opportunity costs," so their future Win Shares were subtracted from the team that traded them away because those were Win Shares the trading team would have had if not for the throw in.




As a brief example, Rick Wise came to the Cards when they traded Steve Carlton to Philadelphia. St. Louis gets Wise's WS in a Cards uniform. Philadelphia gets Carlton's WS in a Phils uniform. Wise was then traded to Boston for Reggie Smith and Ken Tatum. St. Louis gets Smith and Tatum's WS in a Cards uniform. But in that deal Bernie Carbo was sent from the Cards to Boston. Carbo is the "throw in" player otherwise unconnected to the original trade. Since the Cards lost the future value of his services, Carbo's WS after the trade are subtracted from the Cards side of the ledger, because they lost his future services. In some cases, this goes on and on. One note, though: the opportunity cost of trading away players actually connected with the deal -- like Wise, or Reggie Smith after he was traded to the Dodgers -- was not factored in, both for reasons of complexity and because there seemed to be a danger of double-counting...my brain got a little twisted up trying to figure it out.




It goes without saying that other things factor into trades. Clubhouse personality, the availability of someone in the minors to replace the traded player, etc. I'm not saying the method is perfect...it's just the way I chose to do it because I think it is interesting.




I'll break this into two more posts. One for the worst trades, and one for the best (from the Cards perspective).