In part 1, I looked at whether significant experience as an all-star or in HRD contributed to second half drops in performance. Although it does, it's more likely that the inexperienced players are regressing to the mean after flukey first halves.
Here I want to look at whether the number of swings taken affects the second half drop off, to the extent there is one. The swing counts are approximate, based on 10 outs per round and some info I found about "swing offs" and abbreviations (like when Josh Hamilton in 2008 quit swinging in the second round after 4 outs, because he had already advanced to the finals).
Of the 79 participants in the set, 39 took fewer than 20 swings. These are pretty much the folks who bow out after the first round. So that's one "tier". There are no obvious breaks in the number of swings among the remaining 40 players, so I set the second tier at 21-41 swings, and the third tier at more than 41. That also happens to give me 20 players in each of the final two tiers.
First tier (0-20 swings):
This group had a higher K% in the second half by 1.5%, lost 44 points of OPS, lost 34 points of ISO and had a reduced HR/Contact% by 1.1%. BABIPs rose by only 6 points.
Second tier (21-41 swings):
This group had a higher K% in the second half by 0.6%, lost 21 points of OPS, lost 16 points of ISO and had a reduced HR/Contact% by 1.0%. BABIPs rose by only 4 points.
Third tier (42+ swings):
This group had a higher K% in the second half by 0.9%, lost 25 points of OPS, lost 12 points of ISO and had a reduced HR/Contact% by 0.2%. BABIPs fell by 4 points.
Conclusions:
Well I know what it doesn't mean. The HRD does not wear out players. The guys who took the most swings have negligible reductions in their stats that are consistent with what we found "experienced" players experienced in the second half. And in many cases, the guys with more swings have less of a drop in the second half; and as explained below, some of them get significantly better.
Moreover, the middle group feels the impact in the second half less than those who take fewer swings in Tier 1. Swinging more in the HRD is not adversely affecting second half performance.
What's most interesting is that the Tier 1 players have stat reductions in the second half that look almost identical to the stat reductions for the significantly inexperienced all-stars discussed in my first post! Yet of the 39 players in Tier 1, only 21 fall into the inexperienced category. It's almost an even split in Tier 1 among experienced and inexperienced players. (For comparison, 60% of the players in Tier 2 are experienced by my filter, and 50% in Tier 3). Moreover, the second half differentials for the experienced group in Tier 1 and the inexperienced group in Tier 1 are pretty much the same: OPS, ISO and BABIP changes are within 1 or two points for both.
Does it get into the Tier 1 group's head that they didn't do so hot in the HRD? If that's the explanation, you would think the experienced Tier 1 players would shake it off better; but that's not what the numbers say.
Or is it physical/mechanical: that is, taking fewer hacks trying to hit homers is more likely to mess up your swing than taking more. Maybe taking more swings makes it more likely that your altered mechanics at the beginning of the HRD resolve to your natural rhythm by the time you've taken at least 20 hacks. And maybe only taking 15 home run swings is just enough to throw you off, but not enough to get you back in rhythm.
The impact is still pretty small, but it seems likely that those who don't make the semis will be more affected than those who do.
Despite all that Tier 1 talk, the worst subset to be in is the inexperienced player taking more than 41 swings (Tier 3). Those players had their K% jump 2.9% in the second half, lost 32 points of OPS, 37 points of ISO and 1.4% shaved off their HR/Contact%, and those numbers are with a boost in BABIP of 18 points!
By contrast, the experienced players in Tier 3 are the most stable. They shave off 2% points from their K%, increase OPS by 177, increase ISO by 104 and increase HR/Contact% by 4.3%! Some of that is because of a BABIP boost of 14 points (and a small sample size...there are only 10 of them).
If you play fantasy baseball, odds are that you won't dump any experienced player just because of HRD. But if you have an inexperienced player who had a hot first half, made the All-Star team and is participating in HRD, you might be a little worried. Based on these numbers, ideally those guys (Hart, Swisher and Young) make it past the first round and lose in the semis. The worst thing that can happen is for those guys to make the finals and take a bunch of swings (think Bobby Abreu and Garret Anderson).
For the experienced players, the further they go in the HRD, the better off you'll be. :)
Showing posts with label All-Star Game. Show all posts
Showing posts with label All-Star Game. Show all posts
Monday, July 12, 2010
Effect of the Home Run Derby on Second Half Performance (Pt.1)
There's a lot on the Web today about whether participation in the All-Star Home Run Derby (HRD) affects second half performance (theoretically, by messing up the player's swing). Many have commented that the second half performances are just regression to the mean, because players who make the all-star team are often already playing over their heads.
The bloggers at Pinstripe Alley, a Yankee fan blog, looked at the first and second half OPS of all HRD participants since 2000 (except IRod in 2000 because he barely played in the second half). Their conclusion was that the OPS dropped .042 points, which they described as "not huge".
I wanted to slice the numbers a little differently, using essentially the same data set that Pinstripe Alley used.
I wondered whether HRD participants with significant all-star game or HRD experience were affected differently than inexperienced players. I categorized experienced players as those who, at the time of the HRD appearance in question, had made the all-star team at least twice before or had participated in an official HRD before. Of the 79 players in the data set, 40 were experienced using that filter, and 39 were not. That worked out pretty nicely. :)
I used 5 stats:
Strikeout percentage (SO/AB):
Experienced players had their K% increase from 19.2% to 19.9% in the second half, for a 0.7% increase. A difference not worth commenting on further.
Inexperienced players had their K% increase from 20.3% to 21.8% in the second half, for a 1.5% increase. It's not a huge difference from first half to second half, but the difference is twice as large as for experienced players.
OPS (OBP+SLG):
Five (5) of the experienced players had their OPS rise 100 points or more, and three (3) of those had their BABIPs rise 25 points or more (and the other two had rises of 14 and 19 points). Only three (3) of the inexperienced players had their OPS rise 100 points or more, and all of them had a rise in BABIP of 25 points or more.
BABIP seems to be a partial explanation for significant drops in OPS in the second half, but seems to be a more significant factor to significant OPS gains in the second half.
ISO (SLG-AVG):
The bloggers at Pinstripe Alley, a Yankee fan blog, looked at the first and second half OPS of all HRD participants since 2000 (except IRod in 2000 because he barely played in the second half). Their conclusion was that the OPS dropped .042 points, which they described as "not huge".
I wanted to slice the numbers a little differently, using essentially the same data set that Pinstripe Alley used.
I wondered whether HRD participants with significant all-star game or HRD experience were affected differently than inexperienced players. I categorized experienced players as those who, at the time of the HRD appearance in question, had made the all-star team at least twice before or had participated in an official HRD before. Of the 79 players in the data set, 40 were experienced using that filter, and 39 were not. That worked out pretty nicely. :)
I used 5 stats:
Strikeout percentage (SO/AB):
Experienced players had their K% increase from 19.2% to 19.9% in the second half, for a 0.7% increase. A difference not worth commenting on further.
Inexperienced players had their K% increase from 20.3% to 21.8% in the second half, for a 1.5% increase. It's not a huge difference from first half to second half, but the difference is twice as large as for experienced players.
OPS (OBP+SLG):
Experienced players had their OPS decrease from 1.011 to .987 in the second half, for a .024 decrease. That's not a big difference.
Inexperienced players had their OPS decrease from .956 to .913 in the second half, for a .043% decrease. Again, not a huge difference from first half to second half, but the difference is almost twice as large as for experienced players.
I also wondered how much OPS was affected by high first half BABIPs and regression to the mean in the second half. As an average, neither group had a significant BABIP change from first half to second half.
Nine (9) of the experienced players had their OPS drop 100 points or more, and five (5) of those had their BABIPs drop 25 points or more. By contrast, fifteen (15) of the inexperienced players had their OPS drop 100 points or more, and nine (9) had their BABIPs drop 25 points or more. So inexperienced players were hit more dramatically, but essentially the same percentage had significant BABIP adjustments as a contributor.
Five (5) of the experienced players had their OPS rise 100 points or more, and three (3) of those had their BABIPs rise 25 points or more (and the other two had rises of 14 and 19 points). Only three (3) of the inexperienced players had their OPS rise 100 points or more, and all of them had a rise in BABIP of 25 points or more.
BABIP seems to be a partial explanation for significant drops in OPS in the second half, but seems to be a more significant factor to significant OPS gains in the second half.
ISO (SLG-AVG):
Experienced players had their ISO decrease from .293 to .279 in the second half, for a 14 point decrease. No big deal.
Inexperienced players had their ISO decrease from .277 to .243 in the second half, for a 34 point decrease. More significant, but again, the difference is two and a half times as large as it is for experienced players.
BABIP:
Neither group experienced a significant change in BABIP. The inexperienced players actually got a little 5 point BABIP bump in the second half. Both groups started with substantially equivalent BABIPs. See note above under OPS.
HR/Contact Percentage (HR/(AB-SO)...essentially, how many balls contacted flew out of the park):
Experienced players had their HR/Contact% decrease from 9.3% to 9.0% in the second half, for a .3% decrease. No significance at all.
Inexperienced players had their
HR/Contact% decrease from 8.7% to 7.2% in the second half, for a 1.5% point decrease. That strikes me as more notable, but again the most glaring difference is that the change is five times bigger than for experienced players.
Conclusion
One could conclude from the numbers above that the effect on second half performance is not tremendously significant for any HRD participant, and is basically non-existent for the players I've named as "experienced."
On the other hand, the difference between "experience" and "inexperience" is probably just regression at work. Consider that everyone in the experienced data set was appearing in at least their third all-star game, with one exception of a player who participated in HRD twice before ever making his third all-star appearance. So for the most part, these guys are true all-stars and less likely to be in the game because of a statistical fluke.
The so-called inexperienced players have more trouble in the second half because their first half performances were surprises. Brandon Inge in 2009's HRD was the best example. He went from having the best first half of his life, to being literally one of the worst hitters in MLB during the second half (how do you like a OPS of 541?).
It's not that all-star game or HRD experience makes a player seasoned enough to not let his swing get screwed up by HRD. It just means those are the really good players -- the perennial all-stars -- who naturally have more consistency. After all, the first half numbers of experienced players are better than the inexperienced players across the board...lower K%, a full 60 points better on OPS, 16 points better on ISO and a higher HR/Contact %.
I have a quick part 2 to post, because I also sliced the data by the number of swings the player took in the HRD. To come...
Monday, July 14, 2008
Home Run Derby
Some thoughts on tonight's HR Derby:
1. Hamilton was incredible in the first round. Not just the number he hit, but the distance.
2. It was almost certain he wouldn't win the competition. I can't imagine he had anything left in the tank. He took about twice as many swings as everyone else.
3. I'm tired of reporters asking Hamilton about his comeback. We know the story. I'm tired of having him called a heroin addict. Yeah, well he's a baseball player. An unbelievable baseball player.
4. I'm tired of Hamilton praising God and the "Lord Saviour Jesus Christ" every time he does anything. If that's what it takes to get over a drug problem, then good for him. But I don't see any reason to flaunt his delusion every time something happens on the baseball field. And for a reporter to say "It's a bad night for atheists"...ridiculous. Is this "journalist" reporting, as fact, that the home runs were caused by God?
5. The Home Run Derby is overdramatized. As amazing as Hamilton was tonight, I cannot consider it one of the great moments in Yankee Stadium. It is an exhibition. It might be one of the great moments in most stadiums, but not this one.
6. Has there ever been a more boring MVP and Home Run Derby champ than Justin Morneau?
7. Milton Bradley had a good time with Hamilton's home runs. I wonder if anyone else on the AL team joshes around with Bradley. Would you?
1. Hamilton was incredible in the first round. Not just the number he hit, but the distance.
2. It was almost certain he wouldn't win the competition. I can't imagine he had anything left in the tank. He took about twice as many swings as everyone else.
3. I'm tired of reporters asking Hamilton about his comeback. We know the story. I'm tired of having him called a heroin addict. Yeah, well he's a baseball player. An unbelievable baseball player.
4. I'm tired of Hamilton praising God and the "Lord Saviour Jesus Christ" every time he does anything. If that's what it takes to get over a drug problem, then good for him. But I don't see any reason to flaunt his delusion every time something happens on the baseball field. And for a reporter to say "It's a bad night for atheists"...ridiculous. Is this "journalist" reporting, as fact, that the home runs were caused by God?
5. The Home Run Derby is overdramatized. As amazing as Hamilton was tonight, I cannot consider it one of the great moments in Yankee Stadium. It is an exhibition. It might be one of the great moments in most stadiums, but not this one.
6. Has there ever been a more boring MVP and Home Run Derby champ than Justin Morneau?
7. Milton Bradley had a good time with Hamilton's home runs. I wonder if anyone else on the AL team joshes around with Bradley. Would you?
Monday, July 07, 2008
33rd Man on the All-Star Team
Because it is otherwise buried in my posts about the all-star team, and since I now have the voting widget on my page, vote for:
Jermaine Dye and
Pat Burrell
MLB must agree, since they appear first on the ballot.
Jermaine Dye and
Pat Burrell
MLB must agree, since they appear first on the ballot.
Sunday, July 06, 2008
AL All-Star Pitchers
My AL All-Star pitchers, with some commentary. I stick to the MLB rules. Starter is in italics.
Starting Pitchers
Lee (CLE) -- Would win the Cy Young if given today. Comes out #1 in every measure I can think of.
Danks (CHW) -- Yes, he's this good. Second on my list of pitching performances this year. Doesn't have gaudy traditional stats, though, so no one will recognize him.
Halladay (TOR) -- A guy a team can just ride. Rests the bullpen. Wipes out the competition. You've got to love this guy.
Duchscherer (OAK) -- My best feeling about watching the All-Star selection show was realizing that someone actually found Justin among all the choices and selected him. I guess leading the league in ERA helps.
Marcum (TOR) -- Has anyone even mentioned this guy? High on the list of VORP and WPA. Toronto is living off Halladay and Marcum.
Saunders (LAA) -- Unlike his NL counterpart with the big wins, Saunders actually is delivering a top 10 performance.
Greinke (KCA) -- Kansas City is so used to only getting one guy on the team, I think someone forgot about Greinke because they selected Soria.
Hernandez (SEA) -- Same phenomenon as Kansas City. Once Ichiro made the team, they forgot to look elsewhere.
Relief Pitchers
Rivera (NYY) -- For some reason no one's paying attention anymore. Maybe great has become boring. Well, take a look. The best reliever in the AL.
Soria (KCA) -- An awesome season. He's doing a Joe Nathan impression. They can't hit him.
Nathan (MIN) -- When you get some time, look up his record on www.baseball-reference.com. I'll save you some time. Since 2003, he's thrown 397 innings, given up just 265 hits and 25 home runs, walked just 119, and allowed only 92 earned runs (2.09). There's also 184 saves in there.
Rodriguez (LAA) -- You may find this incredible, but he almost didn't make my team. The saves are great, but it's a stupid stat. What saved him was WPA. Who almost got his spot? Jim Johnson. That's right, a Baltimore middle reliever. It's hard for me to imagine too. KRod gets the spot. I wish there was a spot for Johnson, though.
Starting Pitchers
Lee (CLE) -- Would win the Cy Young if given today. Comes out #1 in every measure I can think of.
Danks (CHW) -- Yes, he's this good. Second on my list of pitching performances this year. Doesn't have gaudy traditional stats, though, so no one will recognize him.
Halladay (TOR) -- A guy a team can just ride. Rests the bullpen. Wipes out the competition. You've got to love this guy.
Duchscherer (OAK) -- My best feeling about watching the All-Star selection show was realizing that someone actually found Justin among all the choices and selected him. I guess leading the league in ERA helps.
Marcum (TOR) -- Has anyone even mentioned this guy? High on the list of VORP and WPA. Toronto is living off Halladay and Marcum.
Saunders (LAA) -- Unlike his NL counterpart with the big wins, Saunders actually is delivering a top 10 performance.
Greinke (KCA) -- Kansas City is so used to only getting one guy on the team, I think someone forgot about Greinke because they selected Soria.
Hernandez (SEA) -- Same phenomenon as Kansas City. Once Ichiro made the team, they forgot to look elsewhere.
Relief Pitchers
Rivera (NYY) -- For some reason no one's paying attention anymore. Maybe great has become boring. Well, take a look. The best reliever in the AL.
Soria (KCA) -- An awesome season. He's doing a Joe Nathan impression. They can't hit him.
Nathan (MIN) -- When you get some time, look up his record on www.baseball-reference.com. I'll save you some time. Since 2003, he's thrown 397 innings, given up just 265 hits and 25 home runs, walked just 119, and allowed only 92 earned runs (2.09). There's also 184 saves in there.
Rodriguez (LAA) -- You may find this incredible, but he almost didn't make my team. The saves are great, but it's a stupid stat. What saved him was WPA. Who almost got his spot? Jim Johnson. That's right, a Baltimore middle reliever. It's hard for me to imagine too. KRod gets the spot. I wish there was a spot for Johnson, though.
AL All-Star Hitters
My AL All-Star hitters, with some commentary. I stick to the MLB rules. Starters are in italics.
Catcher
Mauer (MIN) -- The second easiest call of all the all-star selections (behind Hanley at SS for the NL). A threat on offense and defense.
Pierzynski (CHW) -- An important offensive contributor to the White Sox, who are heating up now, but were cold as ice in the first two months. A.J. saved them a few times.
First Base
Youkilis (BOS) -- Detest watching him hit, with that wiggling ass. But I think he has been the best first baseman in the league at the plate this year, and he's good on defense too. Compare Jason Giambi!
Morneau (MIN) -- Minnesota is a surprise team, but their two all-stars are no surprise. I think Morneau has been better at the plate than Giambi, and is definitely better defensively.
Guillen (DET) -- The lone Detroit representative. Steals Giambi's spot on my roster.
Second Base
Kinsler (TEX) -- VORP has him as the best offensive player in the AL right now. Not surprising since he is leading the league in BA, has power, and steals bases.
Roberts (BAL) -- For a bad team, the Orioles have some good players. Roberts is a perennial all-star. Unless you are naming the real all-star team. He's on the list for the 33rd group, but because of Dye's presence on the list, you can't choose Roberts.
Shortstop
Young (TEX) -- Probably the weakest of all the All-Star positions. There's no one at SS in the AL having an unbelievable season. Still Young is having a good season, and unlike prior years, he is not a defensive disaster.
Jeter (NYY) -- A defensive disaster.
Third Base
Rodriguez (NYY) -- Pencil him in for the next five years.
Longoria (TBR) -- Apparently only good enough for the 33rd man ballot, I think he's good enough to be named outright. In addition to being a good hitter, he is incredible defensively. Falls short of Dye, though.
Outfielders
Bradley (TEX) -- Despite the personality problems, the guy is having a monster year. The talent has never been in question. Hit him 3rd instead of Hamilton and Bradley would be leading the league in RBI.
Markakis (BAL) -- This one surprised me, because Baltimore is not on my radar screen. He is having as good a season as anyone else on the list. Not even close to making the actual team.
Dye (CHW) -- Carrying the White Sox in a big way. There's no way Carlos Quentin should have the spot ahead of him. Quentin got off to a hot start but has cooled completely. Dye got off to a modest start and has been raking for a month. If you are voting for the 33rd man, Dye is the most deserving (Longoria is second). A player having this kind of season cannot be left off the team. Don't forget he's one of the best defensive outfielders in the majors.
Hamilton (TEX) -- Having a great season. The RBI totals are gaudy. Of course, Dye and Bradley would have totals like that if Kinsler and Michael Young hit immediately before them. He's a popular pick because of what he's overcome. That's great, but he still needs the numbers. He has them for the team, but not for the starting spot. DH him.
Drew (BOS) -- Big Papi's hurt? I didn't notice. J.D. finally is showing the talent he has always had, and he has been injury free.
Sizemore (CLE) -- The only Cleveland all-star. Has all the tools. Wasting away on this year's Indians team.
Upton (TBR) -- Like Longoria, I think he is overlooked because he plays for Tampa. He has something else in common with Longoria, and that is the superior defense that adds to his value.
Ramirez (BOS) -- Pedroia has actually contributed more overall to Boston's season, but Ramirez has been big time clutch, and he is a truly great player. I chose him over Dustin.
Suzuki (SEA) -- Not having an Ichiro year, but edges out Carlos Quentin and David DeJesus.
Catcher
Mauer (MIN) -- The second easiest call of all the all-star selections (behind Hanley at SS for the NL). A threat on offense and defense.
Pierzynski (CHW) -- An important offensive contributor to the White Sox, who are heating up now, but were cold as ice in the first two months. A.J. saved them a few times.
First Base
Youkilis (BOS) -- Detest watching him hit, with that wiggling ass. But I think he has been the best first baseman in the league at the plate this year, and he's good on defense too. Compare Jason Giambi!
Morneau (MIN) -- Minnesota is a surprise team, but their two all-stars are no surprise. I think Morneau has been better at the plate than Giambi, and is definitely better defensively.
Guillen (DET) -- The lone Detroit representative. Steals Giambi's spot on my roster.
Second Base
Kinsler (TEX) -- VORP has him as the best offensive player in the AL right now. Not surprising since he is leading the league in BA, has power, and steals bases.
Roberts (BAL) -- For a bad team, the Orioles have some good players. Roberts is a perennial all-star. Unless you are naming the real all-star team. He's on the list for the 33rd group, but because of Dye's presence on the list, you can't choose Roberts.
Shortstop
Young (TEX) -- Probably the weakest of all the All-Star positions. There's no one at SS in the AL having an unbelievable season. Still Young is having a good season, and unlike prior years, he is not a defensive disaster.
Jeter (NYY) -- A defensive disaster.
Third Base
Rodriguez (NYY) -- Pencil him in for the next five years.
Longoria (TBR) -- Apparently only good enough for the 33rd man ballot, I think he's good enough to be named outright. In addition to being a good hitter, he is incredible defensively. Falls short of Dye, though.
Outfielders
Bradley (TEX) -- Despite the personality problems, the guy is having a monster year. The talent has never been in question. Hit him 3rd instead of Hamilton and Bradley would be leading the league in RBI.
Markakis (BAL) -- This one surprised me, because Baltimore is not on my radar screen. He is having as good a season as anyone else on the list. Not even close to making the actual team.
Dye (CHW) -- Carrying the White Sox in a big way. There's no way Carlos Quentin should have the spot ahead of him. Quentin got off to a hot start but has cooled completely. Dye got off to a modest start and has been raking for a month. If you are voting for the 33rd man, Dye is the most deserving (Longoria is second). A player having this kind of season cannot be left off the team. Don't forget he's one of the best defensive outfielders in the majors.
Hamilton (TEX) -- Having a great season. The RBI totals are gaudy. Of course, Dye and Bradley would have totals like that if Kinsler and Michael Young hit immediately before them. He's a popular pick because of what he's overcome. That's great, but he still needs the numbers. He has them for the team, but not for the starting spot. DH him.
Drew (BOS) -- Big Papi's hurt? I didn't notice. J.D. finally is showing the talent he has always had, and he has been injury free.
Sizemore (CLE) -- The only Cleveland all-star. Has all the tools. Wasting away on this year's Indians team.
Upton (TBR) -- Like Longoria, I think he is overlooked because he plays for Tampa. He has something else in common with Longoria, and that is the superior defense that adds to his value.
Ramirez (BOS) -- Pedroia has actually contributed more overall to Boston's season, but Ramirez has been big time clutch, and he is a truly great player. I chose him over Dustin.
Suzuki (SEA) -- Not having an Ichiro year, but edges out Carlos Quentin and David DeJesus.
NL All-Star Pitchers
My NL All-Star pitchers, with some commentary. I stick to the MLB rules. Starter is in italics.
Starting Pitchers
Lincecum (SFG) -- Buried on a horrible team, he has been the best pitcher in baseball. Yes, better than Volquez, who has faltered a bit recently. Lincecum also has very little support. Is there another team in the league that would hit Bengie Molina in the cleanup spot? But his defensive support is almost as bad.
Sheets (MIL) -- Finally healthy, and that's the only thing that has kept him out of the Cy Young race in prior years. Amazingly, he is the only Brewer on my team. Braun and Hardy came fairly close. I'm a big Corey Hart fan, but he should not be one of the guys eligible for the 33rd spot. He's very good, but this is not an all-star season for him.
Haren (ARI) -- Change of scenery didn't hurt him. The mountain man is better than Webb right now. Haren is my only Diamondback. Hard to leave off Webb, who is on my fantasy team every year and leads the league in wins. However, wins are not entirely attributable to the pitcher. Webb has had a rough 3 weeks. He almost got the last spot on this team for starters, but I gave the spot to Hamels.
Volquez (CIN) -- Starting to slip a little, but in the first part of the season, he has been practically unhittable. If the control issues don't undo him, he'll be in the Cy race at the end.
Zambrano (CHC) -- The right-handed Sabathia, but with more consistency.
Hudson (ATL) -- Of the all-star snubs, this is the one that first caught my eye. I pay a lot of attention to pitching because of the Predict-A-Matic, and Hudson has had a great season.
Cook (COL) -- When I saw his name on the All-Star selection show, I thought "there's Hurdle picking one of his own guys." But I dug into the numbers more, and he deserves this spot. Arguably more than even Zambrano.
Hamels (PHI) -- With all the great pitchers on this list, I'm not angry about him getting snubbed. I do, however, think he has been more valuable than Webb, in particular because he's playing in a hitter's park.
Relief Pitchers
Lidge (PHI) -- Wow. I have nothing more to add.
Wilson (SFG) -- Throws freakin' hard, and apparently well.
Bell (SDP) -- Unlike the real all-star game, I pay attention to middle relievers and set up men. Bell has been the second most valuable reliever in the NL, behind Lidge, in part because he always pitches in crucial situations.
Cordero (CIN) -- Not 100% sure that the final spot goes to Francisco. He is deserving, but I also considered Damaso Marte, who has been a terrific set up guy in Pittsburgh. Also, Hong-Chu Kuo has been very valuable for the Dodgers, both as a starter and reliever. In the end, though, I think Cordero has helped his team more.
Starting Pitchers
Lincecum (SFG) -- Buried on a horrible team, he has been the best pitcher in baseball. Yes, better than Volquez, who has faltered a bit recently. Lincecum also has very little support. Is there another team in the league that would hit Bengie Molina in the cleanup spot? But his defensive support is almost as bad.
Sheets (MIL) -- Finally healthy, and that's the only thing that has kept him out of the Cy Young race in prior years. Amazingly, he is the only Brewer on my team. Braun and Hardy came fairly close. I'm a big Corey Hart fan, but he should not be one of the guys eligible for the 33rd spot. He's very good, but this is not an all-star season for him.
Haren (ARI) -- Change of scenery didn't hurt him. The mountain man is better than Webb right now. Haren is my only Diamondback. Hard to leave off Webb, who is on my fantasy team every year and leads the league in wins. However, wins are not entirely attributable to the pitcher. Webb has had a rough 3 weeks. He almost got the last spot on this team for starters, but I gave the spot to Hamels.
Volquez (CIN) -- Starting to slip a little, but in the first part of the season, he has been practically unhittable. If the control issues don't undo him, he'll be in the Cy race at the end.
Zambrano (CHC) -- The right-handed Sabathia, but with more consistency.
Hudson (ATL) -- Of the all-star snubs, this is the one that first caught my eye. I pay a lot of attention to pitching because of the Predict-A-Matic, and Hudson has had a great season.
Cook (COL) -- When I saw his name on the All-Star selection show, I thought "there's Hurdle picking one of his own guys." But I dug into the numbers more, and he deserves this spot. Arguably more than even Zambrano.
Hamels (PHI) -- With all the great pitchers on this list, I'm not angry about him getting snubbed. I do, however, think he has been more valuable than Webb, in particular because he's playing in a hitter's park.
Relief Pitchers
Lidge (PHI) -- Wow. I have nothing more to add.
Wilson (SFG) -- Throws freakin' hard, and apparently well.
Bell (SDP) -- Unlike the real all-star game, I pay attention to middle relievers and set up men. Bell has been the second most valuable reliever in the NL, behind Lidge, in part because he always pitches in crucial situations.
Cordero (CIN) -- Not 100% sure that the final spot goes to Francisco. He is deserving, but I also considered Damaso Marte, who has been a terrific set up guy in Pittsburgh. Also, Hong-Chu Kuo has been very valuable for the Dodgers, both as a starter and reliever. In the end, though, I think Cordero has helped his team more.
NL All-Star Hitters
My NL All-Stars, with some commentary. I stick to the MLB rules. Starters are in italics.
Catcher
Martin (LAD) -- Went back and forth on this one. All three catchers have done about the same thing with the bat. Martin, however, has a much better win percentage added. He's done the damage when it really matters. He's my only Dodger representative, which I would not have predicted. Chad Billingsley almost made the team, and if Furcal had not been injured, he was a lock.
McCann (ATL) -- An obvious selection. Even hits the lefties.
Soto (CHC) -- Three catchers seems strange, but WARP shows him as the best offensive and defensive catcher. I gave the nod to Martin because Soto's WPA is pretty low.
First Base
Berkman (HOU) -- Having an MVP-type season. I noticed on the selection show that he has only one fewer all-star appearance than Chipper Jones. He's only 30. He's the lone Astro on this team.
Pujols (STL) -- What's the point of an all-star game without this guy?
Gonzalez (SD) -- Hidden in San Diego, and putting up power numbers in a pitcher's park. Derrek Lee got some consideration for this spot, but Gonzalez deserves to be recognized.
Second Base
Utley (PHI) -- Another real tough call, considering Dan Uggla's year. Uggla not playing this week tipped the balance to Utley, who may be the best player in the NL anyway.
Uggla (FLA) -- Has been more clutch than Utley, but falls a little shy on both offense and defense. Not that I'm complaining.
Shortstop
Ramirez (FLA) -- The only truly easy call among the National Leaguers. Really, there's no one in second place.
Reyes (NYM) -- Despite the media coverage and constant harping on the Mets, Jose Reyes is having a good season. Presumably he was left off the squad because Cristian Guzman was included as the Nationals' representative. That's no excuse. He should be there.
Guzman (WAS) -- Not having an all-star season, but having a good season. That's sufficient on a team that is too injured to compete.
Third Base
Jones (ATL) -- A guy who spends most of the season chasing .400 is gonna make the team. Let's not forget he has an OPS well in excess of 1000.
Wright (NYM) -- No disrespect to Aramis Ramirez, of whom I'm a fan, but Wright is a better player, and having a better year.
Outfielders
Burrell (PHI) -- The best NL outfielder/hitter, and he was left off the team? Wake up people! He's on the list of players you can add for the last spot. Do so. Even more than Wright, he deserves to be on the team. I don't hold out much hope for him, though.
Ludwick (STL) -- With Pujols, has carried a team that started three weak-hitting middle infielders in the interleague games, and still wins games.
Nady (PIT) -- Totally overlooked, he has been Burrell and Ludwick's equivalent, despite missing significant time to injury. He's not even eligible for the 33rd spot. A shame. His spot went to McLouth.
Holliday (COL) -- Some of it is playing in Denver, but not that much. He can flat out hit.
Fukudome (CHC) -- Not just a fan pick. He has been a sparkplug for the Cubs, because he is constantly on base and can hit anywhere in the lineup.
Rowand (SFG) -- One of the two players on my All-Star squads that I cannot stand to watch hit. The other is Kevin Youkilis. Still, that team has serious lineup problems. He's the only bright spot, and it is brighter than the other candidates for this position, like McLouth. Also better this year than Carlos Lee, who pads his counting stats but hasn't been as good a player as Rowand.
Bay (PIT) -- Nice to see him back. Two years ago an All-Star game in 2008 would have been predictable. Last year, it would have been inconceivable. McLouth just misses my team. I've got the two just about even so far, but I'm guessing Bay will look better in the end. What an outfield the Pirates have. Too bad the Pirates suck at every other position, including pitching (notable exception for Damaso Marte, who just missed my team).
Catcher
Martin (LAD) -- Went back and forth on this one. All three catchers have done about the same thing with the bat. Martin, however, has a much better win percentage added. He's done the damage when it really matters. He's my only Dodger representative, which I would not have predicted. Chad Billingsley almost made the team, and if Furcal had not been injured, he was a lock.
McCann (ATL) -- An obvious selection. Even hits the lefties.
Soto (CHC) -- Three catchers seems strange, but WARP shows him as the best offensive and defensive catcher. I gave the nod to Martin because Soto's WPA is pretty low.
First Base
Berkman (HOU) -- Having an MVP-type season. I noticed on the selection show that he has only one fewer all-star appearance than Chipper Jones. He's only 30. He's the lone Astro on this team.
Pujols (STL) -- What's the point of an all-star game without this guy?
Gonzalez (SD) -- Hidden in San Diego, and putting up power numbers in a pitcher's park. Derrek Lee got some consideration for this spot, but Gonzalez deserves to be recognized.
Second Base
Utley (PHI) -- Another real tough call, considering Dan Uggla's year. Uggla not playing this week tipped the balance to Utley, who may be the best player in the NL anyway.
Uggla (FLA) -- Has been more clutch than Utley, but falls a little shy on both offense and defense. Not that I'm complaining.
Shortstop
Ramirez (FLA) -- The only truly easy call among the National Leaguers. Really, there's no one in second place.
Reyes (NYM) -- Despite the media coverage and constant harping on the Mets, Jose Reyes is having a good season. Presumably he was left off the squad because Cristian Guzman was included as the Nationals' representative. That's no excuse. He should be there.
Guzman (WAS) -- Not having an all-star season, but having a good season. That's sufficient on a team that is too injured to compete.
Third Base
Jones (ATL) -- A guy who spends most of the season chasing .400 is gonna make the team. Let's not forget he has an OPS well in excess of 1000.
Wright (NYM) -- No disrespect to Aramis Ramirez, of whom I'm a fan, but Wright is a better player, and having a better year.
Outfielders
Burrell (PHI) -- The best NL outfielder/hitter, and he was left off the team? Wake up people! He's on the list of players you can add for the last spot. Do so. Even more than Wright, he deserves to be on the team. I don't hold out much hope for him, though.
Ludwick (STL) -- With Pujols, has carried a team that started three weak-hitting middle infielders in the interleague games, and still wins games.
Nady (PIT) -- Totally overlooked, he has been Burrell and Ludwick's equivalent, despite missing significant time to injury. He's not even eligible for the 33rd spot. A shame. His spot went to McLouth.
Holliday (COL) -- Some of it is playing in Denver, but not that much. He can flat out hit.
Fukudome (CHC) -- Not just a fan pick. He has been a sparkplug for the Cubs, because he is constantly on base and can hit anywhere in the lineup.
Rowand (SFG) -- One of the two players on my All-Star squads that I cannot stand to watch hit. The other is Kevin Youkilis. Still, that team has serious lineup problems. He's the only bright spot, and it is brighter than the other candidates for this position, like McLouth. Also better this year than Carlos Lee, who pads his counting stats but hasn't been as good a player as Rowand.
Bay (PIT) -- Nice to see him back. Two years ago an All-Star game in 2008 would have been predictable. Last year, it would have been inconceivable. McLouth just misses my team. I've got the two just about even so far, but I'm guessing Bay will look better in the end. What an outfield the Pirates have. Too bad the Pirates suck at every other position, including pitching (notable exception for Damaso Marte, who just missed my team).
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Ichiro (More)
I wonder what Ichiro thought when he was presented with a Chevy SUV hybrid for winning the All-Star MVP award. An American car for a Japanese player.
I bet he thought it was funny that he was being offered a car by a manufacturer that has been consistently substandard to virtually every Japanese auto maker for the last 25 years. Or, perhaps he thought it was interesting that Chevy was hyping hybrid technology, which the Japanese rolled out several years ago.
I bet he thought it was funny that he was being offered a car by a manufacturer that has been consistently substandard to virtually every Japanese auto maker for the last 25 years. Or, perhaps he thought it was interesting that Chevy was hyping hybrid technology, which the Japanese rolled out several years ago.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
LaRussa's All-Star Strategy
The National League has men on first and second. LaRussa has to decide whether to let Orlando Hudson face K-Rod, or whether to pinch hit with Albert Pujols. Why would he stick with Hudson over the perennial MVP candidate?
Hudson hits from the left side. K-Rod is right handed, and lefties fare significantly better against him, although still not very well.
Also, Hudson has seen K-Rod before, when Hudson played with Toronto. He was 1-for-4 against K-Rod with two walks and a strikeout. He has an OPS of .750 against K-Rod in 6 plate appearances. Not awe-inspiring, but not a disaster.
Pujols, on the other hand, has faced K-Rod once, and struck out. So maybe sticking with Hudson made sense. I wouldn't, but it worked out. Hudson walked.
Bases are loaded, so now LaRussa's choice is Aaron Rowand, or the perennial MVP candidate. He sticks with Rowand, even though Rowand has the exact same batting history against K-Rod as Pujols, but has never even had an all-star quality season before. Meanwhile, Pujols is widely considered one of the best hitters in the game.
I thought these games were supposed to matter.
Hudson hits from the left side. K-Rod is right handed, and lefties fare significantly better against him, although still not very well.
Also, Hudson has seen K-Rod before, when Hudson played with Toronto. He was 1-for-4 against K-Rod with two walks and a strikeout. He has an OPS of .750 against K-Rod in 6 plate appearances. Not awe-inspiring, but not a disaster.
Pujols, on the other hand, has faced K-Rod once, and struck out. So maybe sticking with Hudson made sense. I wouldn't, but it worked out. Hudson walked.
Bases are loaded, so now LaRussa's choice is Aaron Rowand, or the perennial MVP candidate. He sticks with Rowand, even though Rowand has the exact same batting history against K-Rod as Pujols, but has never even had an all-star quality season before. Meanwhile, Pujols is widely considered one of the best hitters in the game.
I thought these games were supposed to matter.
Ichiro
Which is more amazing?
(a) An inside the park home run in the All-Star game
(b) Ichiro hitting the inside the park home run and scoring standing up
(c) Ichiro loafing out of the batter's box
(d) All three combined.
The answer is (d). As rare as inside the park home runs are, I imagine it is even more rare for the hitter to score standing up. Ichiro apparently thought he hit it out of the park, though, because his first few steps were a home run trot. And he still scored standing up!
By the way, the lifetime leader in inside-the-park home runs belongs to Jesse Burkett, with a whopping 56. Of course, he played at the turn of the century. Next on the list are Sam Crawford, Ty Cobb, Tommy Leach, Honus Wagner, Tris Speaker, Jake Beckley, Rogers Hornsby, Jake Daubert and Edd Roush. It says something that Hornsby is the most recent player on the list, and he retired 70 years ago.
UPDATE: In the post game sort-of-interview, Ichiro said he thought he hit the ball out of the park.
(a) An inside the park home run in the All-Star game
(b) Ichiro hitting the inside the park home run and scoring standing up
(c) Ichiro loafing out of the batter's box
(d) All three combined.
The answer is (d). As rare as inside the park home runs are, I imagine it is even more rare for the hitter to score standing up. Ichiro apparently thought he hit it out of the park, though, because his first few steps were a home run trot. And he still scored standing up!
By the way, the lifetime leader in inside-the-park home runs belongs to Jesse Burkett, with a whopping 56. Of course, he played at the turn of the century. Next on the list are Sam Crawford, Ty Cobb, Tommy Leach, Honus Wagner, Tris Speaker, Jake Beckley, Rogers Hornsby, Jake Daubert and Edd Roush. It says something that Hornsby is the most recent player on the list, and he retired 70 years ago.
UPDATE: In the post game sort-of-interview, Ichiro said he thought he hit the ball out of the park.
Wednesday, July 20, 2005
Jack McKeon (update)
ESPN is reporting that Marlins' sources are saying McKeon will keep his job for the rest of the season. However, John Kruk, who played for McKeon in San Diego, said "When he first takes over the team, he's like a big cuddly grandpa. Then he becomes a manager." Apparently when he becomes a manager, he has a tendency to lose his team with "rants" and "some guys don't like that."
That's a fairly handy explanation. It fits his managerial profile in Kansas City, San Diego and Florida. That does not appear to be the way it happened in Cincy, but it sure looks like a pattern.
That's a fairly handy explanation. It fits his managerial profile in Kansas City, San Diego and Florida. That does not appear to be the way it happened in Cincy, but it sure looks like a pattern.
Tuesday, July 19, 2005
Jack McKeon
Last week I posted something about Lou Piniella, because watching the Devil Rays' games and his slovenly appearance, I got the idea he was nothing special as as manager. Apparently I'm wrong.
The other guy I most frequently see on t.v. (because I'm in Florida) is Jack McKeon. McKeon's head is apparently on the block. I must admit I don't see much brilliance there either. Some of that is his media personality. He speaks in short clipped sentences and certainly does not appear to enjoy being interviewed. He never sounds insightful.
So I did the same analysis on McKeon as I did on Piniella, using the Bill James measures.
Under Method 1, McKeon gets 13 points, which I mentioned in the Lou Piniella post. That's not too bad, but nothing special over a 14-year managerial career. He does poorly on Method 2, earning only 7 points over 14 years. That's 60 expected wins behind Piniella.
McKeon is an odd study. Those numbers don't look too good. He got his first managerial job in '73, with Kansas City. Since then, he's had two stretches in his career where he went 6 years or more without managing a club. And he's never managed a club for more than 4 years.
Unless the Marlins start winning fast, he's not gonna make 4 years at Florida either.
But he's won Manager of the Year twice (1999 and 2003).
Sounds to me like McKeon is an average manager who occasionally hits it big when the team he happens to manage gets hot.
The other guy I most frequently see on t.v. (because I'm in Florida) is Jack McKeon. McKeon's head is apparently on the block. I must admit I don't see much brilliance there either. Some of that is his media personality. He speaks in short clipped sentences and certainly does not appear to enjoy being interviewed. He never sounds insightful.
So I did the same analysis on McKeon as I did on Piniella, using the Bill James measures.
Under Method 1, McKeon gets 13 points, which I mentioned in the Lou Piniella post. That's not too bad, but nothing special over a 14-year managerial career. He does poorly on Method 2, earning only 7 points over 14 years. That's 60 expected wins behind Piniella.
McKeon is an odd study. Those numbers don't look too good. He got his first managerial job in '73, with Kansas City. Since then, he's had two stretches in his career where he went 6 years or more without managing a club. And he's never managed a club for more than 4 years.
Unless the Marlins start winning fast, he's not gonna make 4 years at Florida either.
But he's won Manager of the Year twice (1999 and 2003).
Sounds to me like McKeon is an average manager who occasionally hits it big when the team he happens to manage gets hot.
Sunday, July 17, 2005
Fox's Funny Numbers
The All-Star game isn't as popular as it used to be. That's been true for years. But the Fox Network has a funny way of playing with numbers -- which isn't really surprising since they are masters of manipulation of the news.
Nielsen said approximately 8.8 million households watched the All-Star game. Fox said it estimates 29.5 million people watched. So that means about 3.3 people per household watched the game, according to Fox. Are they kidding?
I love baseball, yet my interest generally wanes during the All-Star game, once I realize there won't be any close plays or tension. This year it began waning either when Billy Bob Thornton read to us in a monotone voice how baseball is like an automobile assembly line, or when I first got a look at Jeannie Zelasco, who appears to be bigger than Bartolo Colon.
So, I do not believe for a second that more than 3 people per the 8.8 million households were gathered around the television enjoying a bowl of ice cream and watching 9 innings of baseball.
Personally I think viewership is in decline because it's no big deal to see the big stars. You can see them every night on about five channels. Part of it may be interleague play, and part of it may be free agency, but is there a pitcher/batter matchup we just haven't seen or can't expect to see? Maybe Jake Peavy has never faced Alfonso Soriano (I haven't checked), but I'm not tuning in the All-Star game to see that matchup. If they haven't faced each other in a regular season game, they soon will on ESPN, or WGN, or WTBS, or FoxSportsNet or some local channel.
And heads-up MLB: I don't care about home field advantage for the World Series while I'm watching the All-Star game, and neither do the players. Witness Tony LaRussa's midgame interview.
Nielsen said approximately 8.8 million households watched the All-Star game. Fox said it estimates 29.5 million people watched. So that means about 3.3 people per household watched the game, according to Fox. Are they kidding?
I love baseball, yet my interest generally wanes during the All-Star game, once I realize there won't be any close plays or tension. This year it began waning either when Billy Bob Thornton read to us in a monotone voice how baseball is like an automobile assembly line, or when I first got a look at Jeannie Zelasco, who appears to be bigger than Bartolo Colon.
So, I do not believe for a second that more than 3 people per the 8.8 million households were gathered around the television enjoying a bowl of ice cream and watching 9 innings of baseball.
Personally I think viewership is in decline because it's no big deal to see the big stars. You can see them every night on about five channels. Part of it may be interleague play, and part of it may be free agency, but is there a pitcher/batter matchup we just haven't seen or can't expect to see? Maybe Jake Peavy has never faced Alfonso Soriano (I haven't checked), but I'm not tuning in the All-Star game to see that matchup. If they haven't faced each other in a regular season game, they soon will on ESPN, or WGN, or WTBS, or FoxSportsNet or some local channel.
And heads-up MLB: I don't care about home field advantage for the World Series while I'm watching the All-Star game, and neither do the players. Witness Tony LaRussa's midgame interview.
Thursday, July 14, 2005
Lou Piniella
I live in Florida, so I often see Tampa Bay Devil Ray games on television. I watch probably 30-35 Devil Rays games a year. I have never once seen Lou Piniella make a move that seemed significant, good or bad. He appears to do absolutely nothing.
His personal appearance lends credence to that. He has, shall we say, let himself go. During his playing days he was roughly 6'2" and 198 pounds. My own recollection was that it was never distributed on his frame in a way that screamed "work ethic." I don't know how tall he is now, but he's probably a couple of inches shorter with his gut bending him over. I'd put his weight at no less than 250, and probably more. He still does not wear it well. He has given up trying to wear a baseball jersey and just wears a warmup pullover, which either accentuates his belly or holds it in, or both. Many days he does not bother to shave. He couldn't be more different than Tony LaRussa or Terry Francona.
All of this got me to wondering what kind of manager is he. Is he really any good? In his book on managers, Bill James described two different methods of measuring a manager's performance. The first awards one point each for a winning season, winning the division, winning the league championship, winning the World Series, winning 100 or more games, and finishing 20 games over .500 (Method 1). The second predicts a team's record based on a team's tendency to finish .500, weighted by the team's record in the prior three years. If the team finishes with more wins than expected, we can attribute those wins to the manager (Method 2). James noted the flaws in Method 2 and said he preferred Method 1.
I tested Piniella on both Under Method 1, Piniella receives a very respectable 22 points. That's no Bobby Cox (58), Joe Torre (45) or Tony LaRussa (44), but it is better than Dusty Baker (17), Jack McKeon (13), Buck Showalter (11) and other current managers, and similar to Tom Kelly (19) who did a nice job managing the Twins over the years.
Under Method 2, Piniella comes out 67 runs ahead of expected, which is quite an achievement, except that nearly half that came through the 2001 Seattle club's performance. He still lags Cox (176) and LaRussa (72) but is ahead of Torre (33), who was in the negative until reaching the Yanks.
So I guess Piniella is as good as anyone else. Maybe managing a ballclub is like managing your investments. Studies have shown that investing in a manner that tracks a market index (essentially a do-nothing approach) is much more successful over the long run than actually managing your portfolio.
His personal appearance lends credence to that. He has, shall we say, let himself go. During his playing days he was roughly 6'2" and 198 pounds. My own recollection was that it was never distributed on his frame in a way that screamed "work ethic." I don't know how tall he is now, but he's probably a couple of inches shorter with his gut bending him over. I'd put his weight at no less than 250, and probably more. He still does not wear it well. He has given up trying to wear a baseball jersey and just wears a warmup pullover, which either accentuates his belly or holds it in, or both. Many days he does not bother to shave. He couldn't be more different than Tony LaRussa or Terry Francona.
All of this got me to wondering what kind of manager is he. Is he really any good? In his book on managers, Bill James described two different methods of measuring a manager's performance. The first awards one point each for a winning season, winning the division, winning the league championship, winning the World Series, winning 100 or more games, and finishing 20 games over .500 (Method 1). The second predicts a team's record based on a team's tendency to finish .500, weighted by the team's record in the prior three years. If the team finishes with more wins than expected, we can attribute those wins to the manager (Method 2). James noted the flaws in Method 2 and said he preferred Method 1.
I tested Piniella on both Under Method 1, Piniella receives a very respectable 22 points. That's no Bobby Cox (58), Joe Torre (45) or Tony LaRussa (44), but it is better than Dusty Baker (17), Jack McKeon (13), Buck Showalter (11) and other current managers, and similar to Tom Kelly (19) who did a nice job managing the Twins over the years.
Under Method 2, Piniella comes out 67 runs ahead of expected, which is quite an achievement, except that nearly half that came through the 2001 Seattle club's performance. He still lags Cox (176) and LaRussa (72) but is ahead of Torre (33), who was in the negative until reaching the Yanks.
So I guess Piniella is as good as anyone else. Maybe managing a ballclub is like managing your investments. Studies have shown that investing in a manner that tracks a market index (essentially a do-nothing approach) is much more successful over the long run than actually managing your portfolio.
Wednesday, July 06, 2005
The Fans Speak (and they stutter)
The voting is complete for the last roster spots on the All-Star team. Roy Oswalt was selected for the National League team and Scott Posednik for the American League team.
Oswalt is the correct choice. He is the 3d best pitcher in the NL, and his absence from the All-Star team was the biggest snub of the year. Hoffman finished second. Why? Because Padres fans vote like crazy on the Internet. Must be Silicon Valley-envy. Why was Hoffman even one of the five choices? He's been a dog.
The vote rounded out with Brandon Webb (5th best starter in the NL), Billy Wagner (2nd best closer in the NL) and Brett Myers (7th best starter in the NL). Everyone but Hoffman would have been a valid choice. The vote should have been Oswalt, Webb, Myers, Wagner and Hoffman (0 votes).
Posednik is not the correct choice. He narrowly beat Jeter. I respect Jeter, but I don't like him. Nevertheless, you can't pick Posednik over Jeter. Or Matsui. Or Crawford. Maybe you can take him over Torii Hunter, but I wouldn't. The vote should have been Jeter/Matsui (toss-up), Crawford, Hunter, Posednik.
Oswalt is the correct choice. He is the 3d best pitcher in the NL, and his absence from the All-Star team was the biggest snub of the year. Hoffman finished second. Why? Because Padres fans vote like crazy on the Internet. Must be Silicon Valley-envy. Why was Hoffman even one of the five choices? He's been a dog.
The vote rounded out with Brandon Webb (5th best starter in the NL), Billy Wagner (2nd best closer in the NL) and Brett Myers (7th best starter in the NL). Everyone but Hoffman would have been a valid choice. The vote should have been Oswalt, Webb, Myers, Wagner and Hoffman (0 votes).
Posednik is not the correct choice. He narrowly beat Jeter. I respect Jeter, but I don't like him. Nevertheless, you can't pick Posednik over Jeter. Or Matsui. Or Crawford. Maybe you can take him over Torii Hunter, but I wouldn't. The vote should have been Jeter/Matsui (toss-up), Crawford, Hunter, Posednik.
Sunday, July 03, 2005
2004 All Star Mistakes
Fan Picks
First, let's start with the fan picks. In the AL, you cannot really quarrel with any of the picks. They are all genuine all-stars, and none are obviously reserves. I'm impressed.
In the NL, there are three starters who shouldn't even be at the all-star game: Piazza, Rolen and Beltran. They ought to be Schneider, Ensberg and Giles, none of whom even made the squad.
Reserves
Next, the reserves. In the AL, I would not have selected I-Rod, but I understand why he's there. I don't understand how Hillenbrand made the team. I also think Sweeney is a fairly substantial mistake. He seems to have been selected to get someone from KC, but he's only the 3d best player on that team. Anderson and Suzuki are good players with decent seasons...but there were better choices (including Emil Brown from KC, Sizemore from Clev., Rowand from Chi., etc.)
Biggest AL snubs: Joe Mauer and Brandon Inge.
In the NL, there's only one terrible pick: Cesar Izturis. A good case can be made for everyone else on the squad. I'm not crazy about choosing Castillo, though. Counsell, Biggio, Giles and Utley all would have been better picks.
Biggest NL snubs: Nick Johnson (on DL), Morgan Ensberg, Brian Giles, Craig Counsell and Cliff Floyd.
Pitchers
In the AL, my only quarrel is with Rogers. From a performance perspective, he belongs. As a representative of MLB, he doesn't even belong in a regular season game. Give that spot to Matt Clement.
Baez is a terrible pick as a reliever. Presumably he is picked as Tampa Bay's representative. Would have been much better to take Julio Lugo instead of Izturis, and open this relief spot up for someone else. I like the Duchscherer pick, because he's the closest thing to a middle reliever, although he's now become Oakland's closer.
Biggest AL snubs: Dustin Hermanson
In the NL, all the starters are tremendous. But where the heck are Roy Oswalt and Brandon Webb, the 3rd and 5th best starters in the NL?
As for the relievers, Isringhausen is an awful pick, and there's no excuse for this one. Should have been Billy Wagner, Chris Hammond or Todd Jones.
Biggest NL snubs: Roy Oswalt and Brandon Webb
I'll be voting for Matsui for the final AL roster spot, and Oswalt for the final NL roster spot (though it is a close call over Webb). Brian Giles and Nick Johnson have more Win Shares than any other player who didn't make the squad (in either league), and neither is on the "final 5" ballot.
First, let's start with the fan picks. In the AL, you cannot really quarrel with any of the picks. They are all genuine all-stars, and none are obviously reserves. I'm impressed.
In the NL, there are three starters who shouldn't even be at the all-star game: Piazza, Rolen and Beltran. They ought to be Schneider, Ensberg and Giles, none of whom even made the squad.
Reserves
Next, the reserves. In the AL, I would not have selected I-Rod, but I understand why he's there. I don't understand how Hillenbrand made the team. I also think Sweeney is a fairly substantial mistake. He seems to have been selected to get someone from KC, but he's only the 3d best player on that team. Anderson and Suzuki are good players with decent seasons...but there were better choices (including Emil Brown from KC, Sizemore from Clev., Rowand from Chi., etc.)
Biggest AL snubs: Joe Mauer and Brandon Inge.
In the NL, there's only one terrible pick: Cesar Izturis. A good case can be made for everyone else on the squad. I'm not crazy about choosing Castillo, though. Counsell, Biggio, Giles and Utley all would have been better picks.
Biggest NL snubs: Nick Johnson (on DL), Morgan Ensberg, Brian Giles, Craig Counsell and Cliff Floyd.
Pitchers
In the AL, my only quarrel is with Rogers. From a performance perspective, he belongs. As a representative of MLB, he doesn't even belong in a regular season game. Give that spot to Matt Clement.
Baez is a terrible pick as a reliever. Presumably he is picked as Tampa Bay's representative. Would have been much better to take Julio Lugo instead of Izturis, and open this relief spot up for someone else. I like the Duchscherer pick, because he's the closest thing to a middle reliever, although he's now become Oakland's closer.
Biggest AL snubs: Dustin Hermanson
In the NL, all the starters are tremendous. But where the heck are Roy Oswalt and Brandon Webb, the 3rd and 5th best starters in the NL?
As for the relievers, Isringhausen is an awful pick, and there's no excuse for this one. Should have been Billy Wagner, Chris Hammond or Todd Jones.
Biggest NL snubs: Roy Oswalt and Brandon Webb
I'll be voting for Matsui for the final AL roster spot, and Oswalt for the final NL roster spot (though it is a close call over Webb). Brian Giles and Nick Johnson have more Win Shares than any other player who didn't make the squad (in either league), and neither is on the "final 5" ballot.
Tuesday, June 28, 2005
Win Shares All-Star Pitchers
Here's who the pitchers on the All-Star team ought to be, according to WS as calculated by The Hardball Times. For this purpose, I've used 7 starters and 3 relievers.
AL
Buehrle, Chi.
Halladay, Tor.
Garland, Chi.
Rogers, Tex.
Colon, L.A.
Clement, Bos.
Santana, Min.
P.Walker, Tor.
Shields, L.A.
Politte, Cle.
Quite a non-traditional list of starters, other than former Cy Young winners Halladay and Santana. And how 'bout those relievers. Not a closer among them. Of course, those three relievers will never be invited to the game. If you'd like all three to be closers, then WS suggests B.J. Ryan (Balt.), Dustin Hermanson (Chi.) and Mariano Rivera (N.Y.)
NL
Clemens, Hou.
Willis, Fla.
Oswalt, Hou.
B.Myers, Phi.
P.Martinez, N.Y.
B.Webb, Ari.
Smoltz, Atl.
Cordero, Was.
Wagner, Phi.
T.Jones, Fla.
These starters are less surprising. Interestingly, all three relievers are closers...and so is Smoltz, for that matter. :)
AL
Buehrle, Chi.
Halladay, Tor.
Garland, Chi.
Rogers, Tex.
Colon, L.A.
Clement, Bos.
Santana, Min.
P.Walker, Tor.
Shields, L.A.
Politte, Cle.
Quite a non-traditional list of starters, other than former Cy Young winners Halladay and Santana. And how 'bout those relievers. Not a closer among them. Of course, those three relievers will never be invited to the game. If you'd like all three to be closers, then WS suggests B.J. Ryan (Balt.), Dustin Hermanson (Chi.) and Mariano Rivera (N.Y.)
NL
Clemens, Hou.
Willis, Fla.
Oswalt, Hou.
B.Myers, Phi.
P.Martinez, N.Y.
B.Webb, Ari.
Smoltz, Atl.
Cordero, Was.
Wagner, Phi.
T.Jones, Fla.
These starters are less surprising. Interestingly, all three relievers are closers...and so is Smoltz, for that matter. :)
Win Shares All-Star Reserves
Assuming the manager selects 10 pitchers, that leaves 12 reserve spots in the AL and 13 spots in the NL. Without gerrymandering to fit positions, here's who WS would have as the reserves, according to the calcs at The Hardball Times.
AL
3b....Inge, Det.
ss....Lugo, T.B.
3b....Mora, Balt.
of....Guerrero, L.A.
of....Rowand, Chi.
of....Kotsay, Oak.
1b....Konerko, Chi.
1b....Erstad, L.A. (or of....Emil Brown, see below)
of....Sizemore, Cle.
of....Matsui, N.Y. (or 2b...Chone Figgins, see below)
1b....Sexson, Sea.
of....Crawford, T.B. (or c....Jason Varitek, see below)
That would be one or two too many outfielders, and one too many first baseman. You'd need another 2b and a backup catcher. If you dropped Sexson and Crawford in favor of a 2b and catcher, you'd add Figgins (L.A.) and Varitek (Bos.). But you can't drop Sexson, because he has to be the Seattle representative, so you've got to drop Matsui.
You've still got to find a Kansas City player. Emil Brown is their best. If you keep Sexson, then you are overloaded at 1b, so you could drop Erstad and add Brown.
Lots of young guys on this team. And when's the last time Tampa Bay had a couple of legit All-Stars?
NL
1b....Pujols, Stl.
1b....Johnson, Was.
of....Wilkerson, Was.
of....Dunn, Cin.
2b....Counsell, Ari.
of....Edmonds, Stl.
of....C.Lee, Mil.
1b....Delgado, Fla. (or c....Barrett, see below)
of....B.Clark, Mil.
of....Bay, Pit.
of....Floyd, N.Y. (or ss....Barmes, see below)
of....Drew, L.A. (or of....M.Alou, see below)
3b....Ensberg, Hou.
Here there are probably two too many outfielders and one too many 1b, with no backup catcher or shortstop, and without an extra infielder. If you dropped Drew, Floyd and Delgado (all tough cuts), you could add Michael Barrett (Chi.) as the catcher, Felipe Lopez (Cin.) at shortstop and Aramis Ramirez (Chi.) as an additional infielder.
But you need someone from San Francisco, and someone from Colorado. Clint Barmes is Colorado's best player, so you could use him instead of Lopez. Moises Alou is San Francisco's best player. Better to not add Ramirez at 3b and instead replace J.D. Drew with Alou.
AL
3b....Inge, Det.
ss....Lugo, T.B.
3b....Mora, Balt.
of....Guerrero, L.A.
of....Rowand, Chi.
of....Kotsay, Oak.
1b....Konerko, Chi.
1b....Erstad, L.A. (or of....Emil Brown, see below)
of....Sizemore, Cle.
of....Matsui, N.Y. (or 2b...Chone Figgins, see below)
1b....Sexson, Sea.
of....Crawford, T.B. (or c....Jason Varitek, see below)
That would be one or two too many outfielders, and one too many first baseman. You'd need another 2b and a backup catcher. If you dropped Sexson and Crawford in favor of a 2b and catcher, you'd add Figgins (L.A.) and Varitek (Bos.). But you can't drop Sexson, because he has to be the Seattle representative, so you've got to drop Matsui.
You've still got to find a Kansas City player. Emil Brown is their best. If you keep Sexson, then you are overloaded at 1b, so you could drop Erstad and add Brown.
Lots of young guys on this team. And when's the last time Tampa Bay had a couple of legit All-Stars?
NL
1b....Pujols, Stl.
1b....Johnson, Was.
of....Wilkerson, Was.
of....Dunn, Cin.
2b....Counsell, Ari.
of....Edmonds, Stl.
of....C.Lee, Mil.
1b....Delgado, Fla. (or c....Barrett, see below)
of....B.Clark, Mil.
of....Bay, Pit.
of....Floyd, N.Y. (or ss....Barmes, see below)
of....Drew, L.A. (or of....M.Alou, see below)
3b....Ensberg, Hou.
Here there are probably two too many outfielders and one too many 1b, with no backup catcher or shortstop, and without an extra infielder. If you dropped Drew, Floyd and Delgado (all tough cuts), you could add Michael Barrett (Chi.) as the catcher, Felipe Lopez (Cin.) at shortstop and Aramis Ramirez (Chi.) as an additional infielder.
But you need someone from San Francisco, and someone from Colorado. Clint Barmes is Colorado's best player, so you could use him instead of Lopez. Moises Alou is San Francisco's best player. Better to not add Ramirez at 3b and instead replace J.D. Drew with Alou.
Win Shares All-Star Starters
Using the Win Shares calculated by the folks at The Hardball Times, here are the players who should be leading the All-Star voting:
AL
c....Mauer, Min. (not among top 5 vote getters)
1b....Teixeira, Tex. (currently #1)
2b....B.Roberts, Balt. (currently #1)
3b....A.Rodriguez, N.Y. (currently #1)
ss....Tejada, Balt. (currently #1)
of....Sheffield, N.Y. (currently #5)
of....Damon, Bos. (currently #4)
of....M.Ramirez, Bos. (currently #1)
dh....D.Ortiz, Bos. (currently #1)
The AL voting is about as good as you are going to get, if MLB is going to let the fans vote. The only big miss is at catcher, but the fans are voting for Varitek, who is no slouch.
I've been voting for Posada, Teixeira, Roberts, A-Rod, Michael Young, Ramirez, Sheffield, Guerrero and Ortiz.
NL
c...Schneider, Was. (not among top 5 vote getters)
1b....D.Lee, Chi. (currently #2)
2b....Kent, L.A. (currently #1)
3b....D.Wright, N.Y. (currently #5)
ss....Eckstein, Stl. (currently #2)
of....Abreu, Phi. (currently #1)
of....B.Giles, S.D. (not among top 15 vote getters)
of....L.Gonzalez, Ari. (not among top 15 vote getters)
The fans on the NL side are not doing as good a job. But Brian Schneider? Who knew? And how about Luis Gonzalez, left for dead in Arizona but still plugging away. Quietly having a great career. Interesting that Padres fans have voted in sufficient numbers to get Ramon Hernandez in the 4th slot at catcher (and he was having a good year before he got hurt), but can't get Brian Giles in the top 15.
I've been voting for Michael Barrett, D.Lee, Kent, Ensberg, Barmes, Abreu, Carlos Lee and Cliff Floyd.
AL
c....Mauer, Min. (not among top 5 vote getters)
1b....Teixeira, Tex. (currently #1)
2b....B.Roberts, Balt. (currently #1)
3b....A.Rodriguez, N.Y. (currently #1)
ss....Tejada, Balt. (currently #1)
of....Sheffield, N.Y. (currently #5)
of....Damon, Bos. (currently #4)
of....M.Ramirez, Bos. (currently #1)
dh....D.Ortiz, Bos. (currently #1)
The AL voting is about as good as you are going to get, if MLB is going to let the fans vote. The only big miss is at catcher, but the fans are voting for Varitek, who is no slouch.
I've been voting for Posada, Teixeira, Roberts, A-Rod, Michael Young, Ramirez, Sheffield, Guerrero and Ortiz.
NL
c...Schneider, Was. (not among top 5 vote getters)
1b....D.Lee, Chi. (currently #2)
2b....Kent, L.A. (currently #1)
3b....D.Wright, N.Y. (currently #5)
ss....Eckstein, Stl. (currently #2)
of....Abreu, Phi. (currently #1)
of....B.Giles, S.D. (not among top 15 vote getters)
of....L.Gonzalez, Ari. (not among top 15 vote getters)
The fans on the NL side are not doing as good a job. But Brian Schneider? Who knew? And how about Luis Gonzalez, left for dead in Arizona but still plugging away. Quietly having a great career. Interesting that Padres fans have voted in sufficient numbers to get Ramon Hernandez in the 4th slot at catcher (and he was having a good year before he got hurt), but can't get Brian Giles in the top 15.
I've been voting for Michael Barrett, D.Lee, Kent, Ensberg, Barmes, Abreu, Carlos Lee and Cliff Floyd.
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