Jimmy Gobble came into the Detroit-Kansas City game in the 7th inning. The Detroit hitters had already put 9 runs on the board. He walked his first hitter, allowing another run in, but that was charged to Robinson Tejada.
He then got a ground out from Renteria to end the 7th. Too bad his day didn't end there.
In the 8th, he gave up 6 hits. Then retired 2. He then gave up 3 walks and another hit before being lifted. Unfortunately, Leo Nunez allowed all of Gobble's baserunners to score.
So that's 1 inning of work, 7 hits, 4 walks and 10 earned runs.
It's not like Gobble was having a good year. His ERA was nearly 8.00 coming into the game. Leaving the game, it was 11.31.
Now Gobble is no star, even among major league middle relievers. He has had a mostly mediocre-to-bad career, with ERAs in the fives. Except last year, he was really really good. Averaged nearly a strikeout an inning and managed a 3.02 ERA. In fact, I think he was my choice to represent Kansas City in the All-Star game last year. Admittedly, there weren't many options.
With tonight's inning, he has thrown 25.7 innings this year. I did a quick search to find out how many players since 1901 pitched more than 25 innings in a season and finished with an ERA greater than 10.00.
It has happened 25 times, most recently with Scott Elarton last year -- 37 innings at 10.46. Should we be surprised that he pitched for Kansas City?
There are five seasons on the list with ERAs worse than Gobble's. His work isn't done if he wants to set a record.
But here's the most startling record of the 25 players who had at least 25 innings and an ERA over 10.00. Roy Halladay is one of them! And he's the WORST one. He doesn't have the worst ERA in the group...only the 9th worst. But unlike nearly everyone else on the list who pitched around 30 innings, Halladay pitched 67.7 innings at 10.64 when he was 23.
So, if I refined the search to players with an ERA over 10.00 with at least 60 innings pitched, Roy Halladay would be the only guy on the list. If the criteria was 50 innings, we'd add one more: Micah Bowie managed 51 innings of horror in 1999, but his ERA was only 10.24.
Showing posts with label Pitchers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pitchers. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
Brian Wilson
Brian Wilson, the Giants' closer, throws hard. I've never watched him before tonight, but I saw 18 pitches against the Cubs in the 9th.
Of those 18 pitches, he threw one 84 mph slider, one 96 mph fastball and one 97 mph fastball. Everything else was 98 and above, and he hit 100 five times.
He doesn't have particularly good control, but I haven't seen a pitcher in awhile who is consistently 98, 99, 100.
Matt Cain, the starting pitcher in this game, was still throwing 96 mph in the 8th inning, so maybe there was something magical in San Francisco tonight.
Of those 18 pitches, he threw one 84 mph slider, one 96 mph fastball and one 97 mph fastball. Everything else was 98 and above, and he hit 100 five times.
He doesn't have particularly good control, but I haven't seen a pitcher in awhile who is consistently 98, 99, 100.
Matt Cain, the starting pitcher in this game, was still throwing 96 mph in the 8th inning, so maybe there was something magical in San Francisco tonight.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
More on Negative Game Scores
Last year in July I did a post about 2007's high number of negative game scores for starting pitchers.
From 1956-2006, there had been only 103 games in which the starting pitcher earned a negative game score. By the time of my post in late July 2007, seven had already occurred in those 4 months of the season. Three names were added by the end of the season, which brought the number to 10 for the year.
We are approaching early July 2008, and before tonight's game, we had only two negative performances. One from Jason Simontacci (-2) and one from Jarrod Washburn (-1). Tonight we will add Bronson Arroyo, who turned in a -9 in one inning of work. Last year Jason Jennings produced a -11 in only 2/3 of an inning. Hurdle pulled him at 39 pitches. Arroyo this evening threw 52 pitches before Dusty decided to pull him.
It's interesting how many fewer negative scores we have had this year compared to last. Could the managers be learning? Maybe, but it is too soon to call.
I looked at 2006 and was surprised to see 10 negative game scores. That means in 2006 and 2007, 20 of the 115 negative game scores since 1956 occurred -- 17%, just in those two years. How about for the decade? Fifty negative game scores, or a whopping 44%. Here are the number of negative game scores by decade (60's through 00's, there were none from 1956-1959):
Of the negative game scores, here is the average negative game score for the last four decades:
So not only are they occurring much more frequently, the pitchers are suffering more.
It's pretty interesting that as pitchers are less expected to throw a CG, thus shifting more responsibility to bullpens, they are also less likely to get the hook in an early blowout.
But there's one more tidbit that may absolve these managers. Out of those 115 negative game scores, only 19 involved pitchers throwing less than 60 pitches in the game. All but one of those 19 occurred since 1993. The other one was in 1988.
That indicates that prior to 1993, a larger number of pitchers were lifted when they approached their max pitch counts...they basically went as far as they could, to protect the bullpen.
But since 1993, it is more likely a pitcher will be pulled before the max pitch count is approached, which seems to be a recognition by managers that they need to get them out of there. Cincinnati's game was lost in the first inning. Dusty could have left Arroyo out for another 30 pitches, with no effect on the W-L record, but he pulled him.
Confusing: more negative game scores + worse game scores + lower pitch counts.
My initial conclusion is the pitchers are simply much worse. They are pitching horribly more often, and the horrible incidents are worse, and they are doing it without even going as deep into their max pitch count as was previously true.
1993 is no accident. It was an expansion year.
From 1956-2006, there had been only 103 games in which the starting pitcher earned a negative game score. By the time of my post in late July 2007, seven had already occurred in those 4 months of the season. Three names were added by the end of the season, which brought the number to 10 for the year.
We are approaching early July 2008, and before tonight's game, we had only two negative performances. One from Jason Simontacci (-2) and one from Jarrod Washburn (-1). Tonight we will add Bronson Arroyo, who turned in a -9 in one inning of work. Last year Jason Jennings produced a -11 in only 2/3 of an inning. Hurdle pulled him at 39 pitches. Arroyo this evening threw 52 pitches before Dusty decided to pull him.
It's interesting how many fewer negative scores we have had this year compared to last. Could the managers be learning? Maybe, but it is too soon to call.
I looked at 2006 and was surprised to see 10 negative game scores. That means in 2006 and 2007, 20 of the 115 negative game scores since 1956 occurred -- 17%, just in those two years. How about for the decade? Fifty negative game scores, or a whopping 44%. Here are the number of negative game scores by decade (60's through 00's, there were none from 1956-1959):
'00s 51, and it's only mid-way through 2008 '90s 46 '80s 8 '70s 8 '60s 1
Of the negative game scores, here is the average negative game score for the last four decades:
'00s -4.9 '90s -4.5 '80s -3.5 '70s -4.0
So not only are they occurring much more frequently, the pitchers are suffering more.
It's pretty interesting that as pitchers are less expected to throw a CG, thus shifting more responsibility to bullpens, they are also less likely to get the hook in an early blowout.
But there's one more tidbit that may absolve these managers. Out of those 115 negative game scores, only 19 involved pitchers throwing less than 60 pitches in the game. All but one of those 19 occurred since 1993. The other one was in 1988.
That indicates that prior to 1993, a larger number of pitchers were lifted when they approached their max pitch counts...they basically went as far as they could, to protect the bullpen.
But since 1993, it is more likely a pitcher will be pulled before the max pitch count is approached, which seems to be a recognition by managers that they need to get them out of there. Cincinnati's game was lost in the first inning. Dusty could have left Arroyo out for another 30 pitches, with no effect on the W-L record, but he pulled him.
Confusing: more negative game scores + worse game scores + lower pitch counts.
My initial conclusion is the pitchers are simply much worse. They are pitching horribly more often, and the horrible incidents are worse, and they are doing it without even going as deep into their max pitch count as was previously true.
1993 is no accident. It was an expansion year.
Dusty Baker Strikes Again
Has Dusty Baker lost his mind?
First, he batted Adam Dunn second in the order. That makes NO sense. He has 40+ home runs each of the last four years, but you are sending him up where the guys on base will consist of Norris Hopper and Paul Bako, if it is a really lucky night. Plus, the guy is a strikeout machine, and slow as Christmas.
Second, Baker left Bronson Arroyo in to rot and die on the mound. Who lets their pitcher get touched for 11 hits and a walk in one inning???!!! And 10 earned runs in 1 inning? This is a veteran pitcher who is already struggling. What is gained by humiliating him?
I wrote something similar last year in connection with a performance by Jon Garland (later matched, in a bad way, by Jason Jennings and Yovani Gallardo). It doesn't surprise me that Ozzie Guillen, Ned Yost and Phil Garner all make the list with Dusty, but it does surprise me that all three of these guys had substantial major league careers but expect the pitcher to take this kind of abuse.
Maybe it's just bullpen management and I'm overreacting.
BTW, Arroyo is just the 6th pitcher in the last 51 years to give up more than 10 runs in 1 inning or less.
First, he batted Adam Dunn second in the order. That makes NO sense. He has 40+ home runs each of the last four years, but you are sending him up where the guys on base will consist of Norris Hopper and Paul Bako, if it is a really lucky night. Plus, the guy is a strikeout machine, and slow as Christmas.
Second, Baker left Bronson Arroyo in to rot and die on the mound. Who lets their pitcher get touched for 11 hits and a walk in one inning???!!! And 10 earned runs in 1 inning? This is a veteran pitcher who is already struggling. What is gained by humiliating him?
I wrote something similar last year in connection with a performance by Jon Garland (later matched, in a bad way, by Jason Jennings and Yovani Gallardo). It doesn't surprise me that Ozzie Guillen, Ned Yost and Phil Garner all make the list with Dusty, but it does surprise me that all three of these guys had substantial major league careers but expect the pitcher to take this kind of abuse.
Maybe it's just bullpen management and I'm overreacting.
BTW, Arroyo is just the 6th pitcher in the last 51 years to give up more than 10 runs in 1 inning or less.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Beckett in Game 5
Why on Earth is Francona sending Beckett out to pitch the 8th inning? Here are the facts:
1. Beckett has already thrown 96 pitches.
2. Boston leads 7-1.
3. Beckett sat on the bench for 20 minutes while Boston was at bat.
4. Boston has the best setup man in the AL in Okajima.
5. Boston has one of the best closers in MLB in Papelbon.
6. Beckett will not pitch Game 7, no matter what.
Only #6 would be an excuse to run Beckett back out there, but what about injury? Becket has been known to stiffen up, particularly his back. Why send your best player out to the mound when his arm is cold and at least somewhat fatigued, when you have a six run lead and a great bullpen?
Could it be that this is a game that does not fit the paradigm of setup man in the 8th and closer in the 9th because no one can get the save, and therefore like most MLB managers, Francona is just lost?
1. Beckett has already thrown 96 pitches.
2. Boston leads 7-1.
3. Beckett sat on the bench for 20 minutes while Boston was at bat.
4. Boston has the best setup man in the AL in Okajima.
5. Boston has one of the best closers in MLB in Papelbon.
6. Beckett will not pitch Game 7, no matter what.
Only #6 would be an excuse to run Beckett back out there, but what about injury? Becket has been known to stiffen up, particularly his back. Why send your best player out to the mound when his arm is cold and at least somewhat fatigued, when you have a six run lead and a great bullpen?
Could it be that this is a game that does not fit the paradigm of setup man in the 8th and closer in the 9th because no one can get the save, and therefore like most MLB managers, Francona is just lost?
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Closers = Wimpy
I've ranted about closers before, from the perspective of the manager who uses them only when they get their money stat, regardless of whether they could have been used earlier in a more crucial situation. It makes no sense to use a closer just so they can generate a stat. Unless you are the closer, since the save stat is what gets you the big contract.
Closers are viewed (by managers, fans, themselves) as the studs of the bullpen. Is it really that studly if you can't pitch more than two innings?
Francona pulled Papelbon after 33 pitches (not counting the three intentional walk pitches). Perhaps the rationale is that you have to use relievers more often; however, tomorrow is a day off. Why use the yet-to-be-effective Gagne?
Interestingly, Papelbon threw more than 30 pitches in a game only once this year. He averaged 15 pitches per appearance. But...he appeared on consecutive days only 8 times in 59 appearances! He is certainly being handled with kid gloves.
In 1974, Mike Marshall threw more than 200 innings. In relief! We don't have a reliable pitch count for Marshall that year, but he faced 857 batters. That's more than Papelbon has faced in his three year MLB career...and if Papelbon faces the same number next year as this year, he'll will have faced the number of batters in his career that Marshall did in 1974 alone.
And that year was only a little flukey for Marshall. From '71 to '76 he threw: 111, 116, 179, 209, 109 and 99 innings. Not a single game started. He got a lot of saves (for the time), but I bet he was used whenever the Dodgers and Expos really needed an out, regardless of whether he would get a save. In fact, he made 40 appearances in the 7th inning or earlier.
Final Marshall stat from 1974: he pitched on no rest 53 times that year. As mentioned above, the figure for Papelbon this year was 8.
Closers are viewed (by managers, fans, themselves) as the studs of the bullpen. Is it really that studly if you can't pitch more than two innings?
Francona pulled Papelbon after 33 pitches (not counting the three intentional walk pitches). Perhaps the rationale is that you have to use relievers more often; however, tomorrow is a day off. Why use the yet-to-be-effective Gagne?
Interestingly, Papelbon threw more than 30 pitches in a game only once this year. He averaged 15 pitches per appearance. But...he appeared on consecutive days only 8 times in 59 appearances! He is certainly being handled with kid gloves.
In 1974, Mike Marshall threw more than 200 innings. In relief! We don't have a reliable pitch count for Marshall that year, but he faced 857 batters. That's more than Papelbon has faced in his three year MLB career...and if Papelbon faces the same number next year as this year, he'll will have faced the number of batters in his career that Marshall did in 1974 alone.
And that year was only a little flukey for Marshall. From '71 to '76 he threw: 111, 116, 179, 209, 109 and 99 innings. Not a single game started. He got a lot of saves (for the time), but I bet he was used whenever the Dodgers and Expos really needed an out, regardless of whether he would get a save. In fact, he made 40 appearances in the 7th inning or earlier.
Final Marshall stat from 1974: he pitched on no rest 53 times that year. As mentioned above, the figure for Papelbon this year was 8.
Friday, October 05, 2007
AL Cy Young
I'll measure the AL Cy Young candidates by VORP and WARP (both from BP) and Win Shares. The latter two take into account hitting ability, which is less relevant in the AL awards.
But first, some traditional stats used in the Cy Young evaluation:
Only Beckett and Sabathia appear among the top 10 in all three of these categories, which means they will likely garner the majority of the Cy Young votes. Both are in the playoffs. I expect the vote to be close, but Beckett to win it for the big market Red Sox.
Lackey, Sabathia and Carmona are neck and neck in both systems. Sabathia is slightly ahead of Carmona, and they play on the same team. I'm going to do the same thing I did with the NL ROY analysis in deciding between Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki. I'm going to look at their numbers in August and September, and how they fared against their chief rivals the Tigers and Twins.
In August/September, Carmona went 6-3, with a 2.68 ERA, striking out 6.4 hitters per nine innings and allowing 10.1 baserunners per nine innings. Sabathia was 6-1, with a 2.87 ERA, striking out 8.3 hitters per nine and allowing 11.1 baserunners per nine. Hard to distinguish between them. Carmona had the better September, though, so I'm giving him the edge.
Against the Tigers and Twins, Carmona was 5-2, with a 2.40 ERA, striking out 5.7 hitters per nine and allowing 9.6 baserunners per nine. Sabathia was 7-2, with a 3.30 ERA, striking out 7.0 hitters per nine and allowing 10.7 baserunners per nine. Despite the record, Carmona has the edge here, particularly since Carmona fared much better against the Tigers, who were the real competition.
I'm frankly, shocked by this, but Carmona is ahead. I'm going to look at two other things: BP's "Luck" stat, and quality of batters faced.
Carmona's Luck was 3.84. Sabathia's Luck was 7.50. Higher means more lucky. Edge: Carmona.
Carmona faced opponents with an average OPS of .747. Sabathia faced opponents with an average OPS of .738. Interestingly, among AL pitchers with at least 150 IP, Sabathia faced the easiest opponents, and Carmona the third easiest. (Halladay faced the toughest competition, at .775). Edge: Carmona.
All signs point to Fausto Carmona, so he's my Cy Young winner, with Sabathia a very close second. I'm surprised.
Lackey gets the third spot. Beckett and Santana battle for the next spot, but Beckett comes in 4th because he carried the staff to the postseason. Santana edges Haren for the fifth spot.
But first, some traditional stats used in the Cy Young evaluation:
Pitcher Wins ERA SO
Beckett 20 3.27 194
Carmona 19 3.06 137
Lackey 19 3.01 179
Sabathia 19 3.21 209
Wang 19 3.70 104
Escobar 18 3.40 160
Verlander 18 3.66 183
Haren 15 3.07 192
Bedard 13 3.16 221
Santana 15 3.33 235
Only Beckett and Sabathia appear among the top 10 in all three of these categories, which means they will likely garner the majority of the Cy Young votes. Both are in the playoffs. I expect the vote to be close, but Beckett to win it for the big market Red Sox.
Pitcher VORP WARP WS
Sabathia 65.2 9.3 24
Carmona 64.0 9.5 22
Lackey 60.7 9.3 22
Beckett 58.6 8.3 19
Santana 57.7 9.3 18
Haren 56.4 7.7 19
Bedard 54.9 7.8 19
Escobar 49.9 7.8 18
Wang 48.5 7.2 16
Verlander 45.9 6.6 16
Lackey, Sabathia and Carmona are neck and neck in both systems. Sabathia is slightly ahead of Carmona, and they play on the same team. I'm going to do the same thing I did with the NL ROY analysis in deciding between Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki. I'm going to look at their numbers in August and September, and how they fared against their chief rivals the Tigers and Twins.
In August/September, Carmona went 6-3, with a 2.68 ERA, striking out 6.4 hitters per nine innings and allowing 10.1 baserunners per nine innings. Sabathia was 6-1, with a 2.87 ERA, striking out 8.3 hitters per nine and allowing 11.1 baserunners per nine. Hard to distinguish between them. Carmona had the better September, though, so I'm giving him the edge.
Against the Tigers and Twins, Carmona was 5-2, with a 2.40 ERA, striking out 5.7 hitters per nine and allowing 9.6 baserunners per nine. Sabathia was 7-2, with a 3.30 ERA, striking out 7.0 hitters per nine and allowing 10.7 baserunners per nine. Despite the record, Carmona has the edge here, particularly since Carmona fared much better against the Tigers, who were the real competition.
I'm frankly, shocked by this, but Carmona is ahead. I'm going to look at two other things: BP's "Luck" stat, and quality of batters faced.
Carmona's Luck was 3.84. Sabathia's Luck was 7.50. Higher means more lucky. Edge: Carmona.
Carmona faced opponents with an average OPS of .747. Sabathia faced opponents with an average OPS of .738. Interestingly, among AL pitchers with at least 150 IP, Sabathia faced the easiest opponents, and Carmona the third easiest. (Halladay faced the toughest competition, at .775). Edge: Carmona.
All signs point to Fausto Carmona, so he's my Cy Young winner, with Sabathia a very close second. I'm surprised.
Lackey gets the third spot. Beckett and Santana battle for the next spot, but Beckett comes in 4th because he carried the staff to the postseason. Santana edges Haren for the fifth spot.
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
NL Cy Young
I'll measure the NL Cy Young candidates by VORP and WARP (both from BP) and Win Shares. The latter two take into account hitting ability, so that could be important for a pitcher like Zambrano.
But first, some traditional stats used in the Cy Young evaluation:
What's clear from this list is that Peavy will be hard to beat. If you lead the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts, you are going to win the award. Of course, raw stats don't take into account park factors, and wins don't take into account run support. Based on the above, though, I'm going to eliminate the very unlucky Matt Cain. By BP's numbers, Cain was the most unlucky pitcher in baseball. His 7 wins should have been 14.
Harang, Hamels, Francis and Perez were among the 10 luckiest pitchers in the league, but I'll let them stay because they are high on a couple of leaderboards, and two of them will be a factor in the playoffs.
Guess there's no surprise that Peavy wins all these categories too. He's my Cy Young.
That doesn't make for very interesting analysis, though, so I need to choose positions two through five to make this interesting.
Webb seems to be the clear #2. Not a bad follow-up performance for a Cy Young year last year.
Penny is probably #3. He's a little behind Oswalt and Hudson in WARP, but significantly ahead of them in VORP and WS.
#4 goes to Tim Hudson, who easily had his best year as a Brave and has regained "ace" status.
Oswalt gets the fifth spot, buried in Houston. You could make the argument he had a better year than Hudson, but when we are talking about finishing 4th and 5th, it doesn't really matter. The edge goes to Hudson for keeping his team in contention.
Final thought: I should not have included Oliver Perez on this list. When I typed the list before looking at the leaderboards, he wasn't on it. However, it was impossible to ignore a guy who is 9th in ERA, 10th in wins, 10th in strikeouts and 2d in strikeouts per 9 innings. The raw stats were deceiving, as VORP, WARP and WS show him to be clearly inferior. He probably should have been something like 11-10 with a 4.50 ERA, but got lucky.
But first, some traditional stats used in the Cy Young evaluation:
Pitcher Wins ERA SO
Peavy 19 2.54 240
Webb 18 3.01 194
Penny 16 3.03 135
Oswalt 14 3.18 154
Hudson 16 3.33 132
Smoltz 14 3.11 197
Harang 16 3.73 218
Hamels 15 3.39 177
Cain 7 3.65 163
Lilly 15 3.83 174
Zambrano 18 3.95 177
Francis 17 4.22 165
Maine 15 3.91 180
O.Perez 15 3.56 174
What's clear from this list is that Peavy will be hard to beat. If you lead the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts, you are going to win the award. Of course, raw stats don't take into account park factors, and wins don't take into account run support. Based on the above, though, I'm going to eliminate the very unlucky Matt Cain. By BP's numbers, Cain was the most unlucky pitcher in baseball. His 7 wins should have been 14.
Harang, Hamels, Francis and Perez were among the 10 luckiest pitchers in the league, but I'll let them stay because they are high on a couple of leaderboards, and two of them will be a factor in the playoffs.
Pitcher VORP WARP WS
Peavy 77.0 10.6 23
Webb 66.1 8.7 22
Penny 61.7 7.9 21
Oswalt 59.8 8.1 18
Hudson 59.7 8.2 19
Smoltz 56.7 6.9 16
Harang 53.8 7.0 17
Hamels 48.8 6.1 15
Lilly 46.7 5.7 14
Zambrano 43.5 7.2 16
Francis 42.7 5.5 14
Maine 33.3 5.2 11
O.Perez 24.0 3.9 11
Guess there's no surprise that Peavy wins all these categories too. He's my Cy Young.
That doesn't make for very interesting analysis, though, so I need to choose positions two through five to make this interesting.
Webb seems to be the clear #2. Not a bad follow-up performance for a Cy Young year last year.
Penny is probably #3. He's a little behind Oswalt and Hudson in WARP, but significantly ahead of them in VORP and WS.
#4 goes to Tim Hudson, who easily had his best year as a Brave and has regained "ace" status.
Oswalt gets the fifth spot, buried in Houston. You could make the argument he had a better year than Hudson, but when we are talking about finishing 4th and 5th, it doesn't really matter. The edge goes to Hudson for keeping his team in contention.
Final thought: I should not have included Oliver Perez on this list. When I typed the list before looking at the leaderboards, he wasn't on it. However, it was impossible to ignore a guy who is 9th in ERA, 10th in wins, 10th in strikeouts and 2d in strikeouts per 9 innings. The raw stats were deceiving, as VORP, WARP and WS show him to be clearly inferior. He probably should have been something like 11-10 with a 4.50 ERA, but got lucky.
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Notes from White Sox/Angels
Scot Shields
Shields has not had a particularly good year, at least not by his standards, but his rates are all about the same. His walks are a tad higher. I think I know why.
This is the first time I've seen him pitch all year, and I understand why he has only given up 6.8 hits per 9 IP over the last three years. I've never seen so much movement. His fastball moves a foot. His slider moves even more. It's like trying to swing and hit a heat seeking missile.
Maybe all that movement is hard to control, and results in a higher walk rate.
Bad Calls, Mike Scioscia and Ken Harrelson
Bottom of the 8th, one out, no one on, Angels lead 2-1. Jerry Owens hits a grounder to first. Owens is fast. He arrives at Casey Kotchman about the same time the ball does. Kotchman, in one motion, scoops up the ball and swipes at Owens. At the time their paths cross, their bodies are literally six inches apart. Umpire calls Owens safe, saying Kotchman missed the tag.
It was impossible to tell, in the live action, whether Kotchman made the tag. But at the same time, it seemed impossible he could have missed him. They almost collided. Kotchman complained loudly.
And here comes Scioscia. This is one of the most interesting arguments I've seen a manager make. He's very angry. He starts yelling, but mid-word gets control of himself. Puts his hands in a prayer like pose and says "Mike, Mike, Mike" pleading to the umpire. Then Scioscia is on the verge of rage and starts to explode, but again, gathers himself. Puts his hands in the prayer position and begs the ump. The sequence repeats a third time.
(MLB Gameday referred to this sequence as "On-field Delay")
WGN finally gets around to showing a replay. The replay is from the visitor's dugout camera. It is utterly inconclusive, because the shot is blurry and the angle is wrong. Nevertheless, the hopeless homer Ken Harrelson declares from the broadcast booth: "He missed him. They got the call right!" leaving both me, and his broadcast partner speechless. I still didn't know if Kotchman made the tag, but I knew that angle didn't prove anything.
We got two more angles. Both showed Kotchman tagged him. Twice. Once on the butt, and once on the back foot kicking up. Harrelson said that "just goes to show that it depends on the angle." Yeah, no kidding.
Mike Scioscia, reprise
Scioscia lost the argument obviously. He's in the dugout stewing, because he's leading 2-1 and the Angels are in a playoff race.
Podsednik is now at the plate. Shields throws three pitches, two strikes and a ball. Then wham, on the fourth pitch, Shields gets Podsednik looking, and catcher Jeff Mathis fires to first and picks Owens off first with a snap tag from Kotchman. Scioscia called for the catcher pickoff from the dugout.
Scioscia's awesome!
Shields has not had a particularly good year, at least not by his standards, but his rates are all about the same. His walks are a tad higher. I think I know why.
This is the first time I've seen him pitch all year, and I understand why he has only given up 6.8 hits per 9 IP over the last three years. I've never seen so much movement. His fastball moves a foot. His slider moves even more. It's like trying to swing and hit a heat seeking missile.
Maybe all that movement is hard to control, and results in a higher walk rate.
Bad Calls, Mike Scioscia and Ken Harrelson
Bottom of the 8th, one out, no one on, Angels lead 2-1. Jerry Owens hits a grounder to first. Owens is fast. He arrives at Casey Kotchman about the same time the ball does. Kotchman, in one motion, scoops up the ball and swipes at Owens. At the time their paths cross, their bodies are literally six inches apart. Umpire calls Owens safe, saying Kotchman missed the tag.
It was impossible to tell, in the live action, whether Kotchman made the tag. But at the same time, it seemed impossible he could have missed him. They almost collided. Kotchman complained loudly.
And here comes Scioscia. This is one of the most interesting arguments I've seen a manager make. He's very angry. He starts yelling, but mid-word gets control of himself. Puts his hands in a prayer like pose and says "Mike, Mike, Mike" pleading to the umpire. Then Scioscia is on the verge of rage and starts to explode, but again, gathers himself. Puts his hands in the prayer position and begs the ump. The sequence repeats a third time.
(MLB Gameday referred to this sequence as "On-field Delay")
WGN finally gets around to showing a replay. The replay is from the visitor's dugout camera. It is utterly inconclusive, because the shot is blurry and the angle is wrong. Nevertheless, the hopeless homer Ken Harrelson declares from the broadcast booth: "He missed him. They got the call right!" leaving both me, and his broadcast partner speechless. I still didn't know if Kotchman made the tag, but I knew that angle didn't prove anything.
We got two more angles. Both showed Kotchman tagged him. Twice. Once on the butt, and once on the back foot kicking up. Harrelson said that "just goes to show that it depends on the angle." Yeah, no kidding.
Mike Scioscia, reprise
Scioscia lost the argument obviously. He's in the dugout stewing, because he's leading 2-1 and the Angels are in a playoff race.
Podsednik is now at the plate. Shields throws three pitches, two strikes and a ball. Then wham, on the fourth pitch, Shields gets Podsednik looking, and catcher Jeff Mathis fires to first and picks Owens off first with a snap tag from Kotchman. Scioscia called for the catcher pickoff from the dugout.
Scioscia's awesome!
Friday, August 31, 2007
Pitching Predictions -- August 31 (and Results)
A bad, bad day for the Predictamatic. That's baseball.
Big Games: J.Buck (DNP), A.Ramirez (3/4, 1R), D.Ortiz (1/3, 2R, 1HR, 1RBI), Holliday (1/5, 1R), Hawpe (3/5, 1R, 2RBI), Cust (2/3, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI), Teixeira (0/4), Uggla (1/3, 1R), Cabrera (1/4, 1RBI), Willingham (1/1, injured), Fielder (0/2), Braun (0/3), Gross (2/3, 2R), Sexson (DNP), Beltre (2/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI), Guillen (0/4), A-Rod (1/3, 1RBI), Matsui (0/3), Giambi (0/3), Guerrero (2/5, 1R, 1RBI), Morales (2/4, 1R), G.Anderson (1/4, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI)
Game Winners: Minnesota (Gm1) (tossup- L), Cubs (L), Boston (n/a -- different starter), Cleveland (W), Cincinnati (L), Colorado (W), Oakland (W), Minnesota (Gm2) (W), San Diego (W), Atlanta (L), Florida (L), Milwaukee (W), Seattle (L), Washington (tossup-L), Yankees (L), Angels (W)
Pitchers IP H HR BB SO ER 4+Runs 5+Runs
Davies (KCR) 5.0 6 0 3 3 3 32% 19%
5.0 4 1 1 5 2 Grade: B
Garza (MIN) 5.1 6 1 2 5 3 40% 28%
5.1 9 0 2 6 4 Grade: A
Rodriguez (HOU) 5.1 7 1 2 5 3 36% 23%
6.0 4 0 3 5 0 Grade: C
Marshall (CHC) 5.1 6 0 2 4 2 25% 14%
3.2 5 1 4 3 1 Grade: C+
Liz (BAL) (insufficient data)
Wakefield (BOS) 6.0 7 0 2 3 3 32% 19%
(did not start -- Tavarez instead)
Buehrle (CHW) 6.1 7 1 1 4 3 38% 25%
7.0 4 0 0 4 2 Grade: B-
Carmona (CLE) 6.1 7 1 2 5 3 36% 24%
6.0 7 0 6 4 5 Grade: C-
Shearn (CIN) (insufficient data)
Reyes (STL) 5.1 6 1 2 4 3 33% 20%
1.0 4 2 1 2 4 Grade: D
Jimenez (COL) 5.1 5 0 2 6 2 23% 12%
6.2 3 1 1 6 3 Grade: B
Hernandez (ARI) 6.0 7 1 3 3 4 45% 32%
7.0 9 0 1 2 0 Grade: C
Vasquez (DET) (insufficient data)
Blanton (OAK) 7.0 7 0 1 4 2 25% 14%
7.0 5 0 1 6 2 Grade: A
Meche (KCR) 6.1 7 - 1 4 2 28% 16%
7.0 7 0 3 3 3 Grade: B
Baker (MIN) 6.1 6 0 1 5 2 23% 14%
9.0 1 0 1 9 0 Grade: C
Wells (LAD) 5.0 7 1 2 3 4 47% 30%
5.0 6 0 1 3 3 Grade: A-
Cassel (SDP) (insufficient data)
Maine (NYM) 6.0 6 1 2 5 3 34% 20%
7.0 3 0 3 8 1 Grade: B
Hudson (ATL) 6.1 7 - 2 3 2 22% 11%
6.0 6 2 0 1 4 Grade: C-
Kendrick (PHI) 5.2 7 1 1 3 3 42% 27%
7.0 6 0 1 4 2 Grade: B-
Mitre (FLA) 5.2 7 0 2 4 3 37% 24%
3.1 7 0 1 1 6 Grade: C-
Armas (PIT) 5.0 7 2 2 4 5 68% 54%
6.0 4 1 2 5 3 Grade: D
Gallardo (MIL) 6.2 6 1 1 6 2 24% 12%
7.0 5 1 1 7 2 Grade: A
Washburn (SEA) 6.0 7 0 2 3 3 34% 20%
3.1 7 3 5 0 6 Grade: F
Marcum (TOR) 5.2 7 2 1 4 4 56% 38%
5.0 7 2 2 3 4 Grade: A
Correia (SFG) (insufficient data)
Redding (WSN) 6.0 6 - 2 3 2 22% 13%
5.0 5 0 5 1 3 Grade: C
Sonnanstine (TB)5.1 8 2 1 4 4 60% 42%
8.0 2 0 0 5 0 Grade: F
Hughes (NYY) 5.0 5 - 3 6 2 22% 11%
4.1 7 1 4 4 4 Grade: D
Padilla (TEX) 4.2 8 1 2 3 4 60% 47%
6.2 10 1 1 0 6 Grade: C
Saunders (LAA) 6.0 7 0 2 4 3 34% 19%
5.0 10 0 1 5 2 Grade: B-
Big Games: J.Buck (DNP), A.Ramirez (3/4, 1R), D.Ortiz (1/3, 2R, 1HR, 1RBI), Holliday (1/5, 1R), Hawpe (3/5, 1R, 2RBI), Cust (2/3, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI), Teixeira (0/4), Uggla (1/3, 1R), Cabrera (1/4, 1RBI), Willingham (1/1, injured), Fielder (0/2), Braun (0/3), Gross (2/3, 2R), Sexson (DNP), Beltre (2/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI), Guillen (0/4), A-Rod (1/3, 1RBI), Matsui (0/3), Giambi (0/3), Guerrero (2/5, 1R, 1RBI), Morales (2/4, 1R), G.Anderson (1/4, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI)
Game Winners: Minnesota (Gm1) (tossup- L), Cubs (L), Boston (n/a -- different starter), Cleveland (W), Cincinnati (L), Colorado (W), Oakland (W), Minnesota (Gm2) (W), San Diego (W), Atlanta (L), Florida (L), Milwaukee (W), Seattle (L), Washington (tossup-L), Yankees (L), Angels (W)
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Pitcher Predictions -- Results
Some refinements to the system, though mostly for my benefit (speed and output).
Big Games: Chipper Jones (0/4), Mark Teixeira (2/3, 1R, 2HR, 4RBI), Carlos Pena (2/5 1R, 1HR, 1RBI), A-Rod (1/3, 2R, 2BB), Hideki Matsui (1/3, 3RBI), Adrian Gonzalez (2/4 2R, 1HR, 1RBI), Barry Bonds (DNP), Aramis Ramirez (ppd), Torii Hunter (1/4), Justin Morneau (0/1, 3BB)
Game Winners: Atlanta (W), Toronto (W), Seattle (W), Milwaukee (L), Tampa (toss up-W), Dodgers (W), Yankees (W), San Diego (W), Oakland (W), Boston (toss up-L), Washington (L), Pittsburgh (W), Florida (toss up-L), Minnesota (W), Cubs (ppd)
Pitchers IP H HR BB SO ER 4+Runs 5+Runs
Petit (ARI) 5.0 6 1 2 4 3 41% 25%
3.2 7 3 2 3 6 Grade: C-
Smoltz (ATL) 6.1 6 0 1 7 2 17% 8%
8.0 5 0 3 12 2 Grade: B-
Guthrie (BAL) 6.1 7 1 2 5 3 35% 23%
8.0 3 1 0 6 2 Grade: B
Halladay (TOR) 7.0 7 1 1 4 3 32% 18%
9.0 6 0 3 5 2 Grade: B
Garland (CHW) 6.1 8 0 1 2 3 36% 22%
2.2 10 2 1 1 5 Grade: C-
Hernandez(SEA) 6.0 6 - 2 6 2 20% 11%
6.0 8 1 3 4 4 Grade: C+
Harang (CIN) 6.1 6 1 1 7 3 34% 21%
6.2 9 4 0 8 6 Grade: D+
Capuano (MIL) 5.2 5 1 2 5 2 24% 12%
6.1 9 2 1 8 5 Grade: D
Sabathia (CLE) 6.2 7 1 1 7 3 40% 25%
8.0 5 2 0 6 2 Grade: B-
Shields (TBD) 6.1 7 1 1 7 3 41% 26%
6.0 6 0 1 6 2 Grade: B+
Francis (COL) 6.1 7 1 1 4 3 29% 15%
6.0 6 0 2 7 2 Grade: B+
Penny (LAD) 6.1 6 - 2 5 2 16% 9%
5.0 2 0 5 3 1 Grade: B
Bonderman (DET) 6.0 7 1 1 5 4 48% 32%
6.0 7 1 5 5 3 Grade: A-
Wang (NYY) 6.1 7 0 1 3 3 32% 19%
6.0 9 0 2 6 3 Grade: A-
Albers (HOU) 6.0 7 1 3 4 3 41% 27%
5.2 7 1 3 3 5 Grade: B+
Maddux (SDP) 6.0 6 - 1 4 2 18% 9%
6.0 2 1 0 3 1 Grade: B+
Davies (KCR) 4.1 5 0 4 3 3 38% 24%
5.0 6 1 3 4 2 Grade: B+
DiNardo (OAK) 6.1 7 - 2 3 2 23% 13%
8.0 5 0 0 3 1 Grade: B+
Saunders (LAA) 6.0 7 0 2 3 3 28% 16%
7.2 6 0 2 7 1 Grade: C
Tavarez (BOS) 5.2 7 - 2 3 3 30% 17%
6.0 2 0 2 2 2 Grade: B+
O.Hernandez(NYM)6.0 5 0 2 5 2 24% 12%
7.0 3 1 4 4 2 Grade: B
Hill (WSN) 6.1 5 - 1 4 1 11% 5%
7.0 7 1 2 2 2 Grade: B-
Lohse (PHI) 6.0 7 0 1 4 3 35% 22%
6.2 6 0 3 7 4 Grade: A-
Snell (PIT) 6.1 6 0 2 6 3 29% 17%
7.0 8 2 3 10 4 Grade: B-
Lowry (SFG) 5.2 6 0 4 4 3 44% 29%
5.1 5 0 5 3 3 Grade: A
Willis (FLA) 5.2 8 0 2 3 4 48% 33%
6.0 7 2 1 3 3 Grade: B+
Millwood (TEX) 5.1 7 0 2 3 3 38% 23%
7.0 4 1 5 3 1 Grade: D
Santana (MIN) 6.2 5 1 1 8 2 22% 10%
8.0 2 0 0 17 0 Grade: F
K.Wells (STL) 5.2 6 1 3 4 3 42% 28%
Zambrano (CHC) 6.0 6 0 3 5 3 30% 19%
(ppd)
Big Games: Chipper Jones (0/4), Mark Teixeira (2/3, 1R, 2HR, 4RBI), Carlos Pena (2/5 1R, 1HR, 1RBI), A-Rod (1/3, 2R, 2BB), Hideki Matsui (1/3, 3RBI), Adrian Gonzalez (2/4 2R, 1HR, 1RBI), Barry Bonds (DNP), Aramis Ramirez (ppd), Torii Hunter (1/4), Justin Morneau (0/1, 3BB)
Game Winners: Atlanta (W), Toronto (W), Seattle (W), Milwaukee (L), Tampa (toss up-W), Dodgers (W), Yankees (W), San Diego (W), Oakland (W), Boston (toss up-L), Washington (L), Pittsburgh (W), Florida (toss up-L), Minnesota (W), Cubs (ppd)
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Another Negative Game Score
A few weeks back I posted a list of the worst pitching game scores since 1957. This update is belated, but we've got to add Yovani Gallardo to the list, much to the dismay of my fantasy team.
I mentioned that Jon Garland's and Jason Jennings' respective -11 scores were the worst this year and tied for the 7th worst in history. Gallardo topped that with a -12.
For the record, that's 7 times this year we've had a negative game score. As I mentioned in the other post, if we hit 9 (which seems likely), it would comprise 10% of all the negative game scores in the last 50 years.
I mentioned that Jon Garland's and Jason Jennings' respective -11 scores were the worst this year and tied for the 7th worst in history. Gallardo topped that with a -12.
For the record, that's 7 times this year we've had a negative game score. As I mentioned in the other post, if we hit 9 (which seems likely), it would comprise 10% of all the negative game scores in the last 50 years.
Sunday, August 12, 2007
Can Webb Overtake Hershiser?
With 33 consecutive scoreless innings under his belt, Webb is inviting comparison's to Orel Hershiser's streak of 59 innings.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. To realize the magnitude of Hershiser's accomplishment, consider that Webb is barely past halfway to the record.
But for fun, let's compare the first four games of Webb's streak to the first four games of Hershiser's. Webb's streak actually began in the last inning of a game. Hershiser's streak actually began in the 6th inning of a game in which he pitched the distance. The data below for Webb and Hershiser includes the first four games they started after the streak began in those partial games.
PC is pitch count. GS is the average pitching game score using Bill James' methodology. RS is run support for the pitcher. And sOPS+ is the relative OPS+ plus for the opposing team, taking into account the team's home/road splits.
That's pretty interesting. Hershiser is more dominant, having thrown 4 complete games and achieving a higher average game score as a result. But 1988 was a different era. While complete games were waning, they were still more prevalent at that time. In 1988, nearly 14% of games were complete games. In 2007 so far, only 2% are complete games. Can't really ding Webb for that.
What's amazing is that they have the exact same number of hits, walks and strikeouts, albeit in a different number of IP. Hershiser was more efficient, throwing 6 fewer pitches a game. Webb also has gotten better run support, though 8 of those runs came in one game.
I'm not sure if run support helps the streak or hurts it. Lots of run support might relax the pitcher. On the other hand, is relaxation good for a scoreless streak? I think probably not. Hershiser was the bulldog, and I think he thrived in those competitive scenarios.
The most interesting figure is the sOPS+ figure of the opponents. Hershiser's opponents were terrible at the plate, producing at only 85% of league average. Webb's are also poor at 94%, but not nearly as bad.
So although Hershiser's stats are slightly more dominant, some of the statistical diffference can be attributed to (1) the era when there were more complete games and (2) weaker competition.
To see how that bodes for Webb in his next three games, let's see what Hershiser did in his last two games of his streak.
He got tougher on baserunners, and maintained a high average game score (which isn't hurt by a 10 inning complete game). His competition was a little better...about where Webb's has been. But Hershiser's pitch count per game rose by 10 pitches a game and his strikeout rate plummeted. Perhaps that's the quality of the competition kicking in. Interestingly, his run support continued to be horrible.
Webb's going to need at least three games to reach Hershiser's record. If the rotation holds up, he'll be at Atlanta, home against Milwaukee and at San Diego. Their average sOPS+ (as of now) is 93, but that's a deceiving number brought down by San Diego's 76 at home. Atlanta has a 100 at home and Milwaukee a 104 on the road.
To the extent run support is a factor, Webb might have an advantage. Atlanta, Milwaukee and San Diego (especially) have some quality starters that may keep the games close.
But until he gets past Atlanta and Milwaukee, it will be hard to convince me that something is better than Orel.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. To realize the magnitude of Hershiser's accomplishment, consider that Webb is barely past halfway to the record.
But for fun, let's compare the first four games of Webb's streak to the first four games of Hershiser's. Webb's streak actually began in the last inning of a game. Hershiser's streak actually began in the 6th inning of a game in which he pitched the distance. The data below for Webb and Hershiser includes the first four games they started after the streak began in those partial games.
PC is pitch count. GS is the average pitching game score using Bill James' methodology. RS is run support for the pitcher. And sOPS+ is the relative OPS+ plus for the opposing team, taking into account the team's home/road splits.
IP H BB K PC GS RS sOPS+
Webb 32 21 6 29 440 77 15 94
Hershiser 36 21 6 29 417 82 9 85
That's pretty interesting. Hershiser is more dominant, having thrown 4 complete games and achieving a higher average game score as a result. But 1988 was a different era. While complete games were waning, they were still more prevalent at that time. In 1988, nearly 14% of games were complete games. In 2007 so far, only 2% are complete games. Can't really ding Webb for that.
What's amazing is that they have the exact same number of hits, walks and strikeouts, albeit in a different number of IP. Hershiser was more efficient, throwing 6 fewer pitches a game. Webb also has gotten better run support, though 8 of those runs came in one game.
I'm not sure if run support helps the streak or hurts it. Lots of run support might relax the pitcher. On the other hand, is relaxation good for a scoreless streak? I think probably not. Hershiser was the bulldog, and I think he thrived in those competitive scenarios.
The most interesting figure is the sOPS+ figure of the opponents. Hershiser's opponents were terrible at the plate, producing at only 85% of league average. Webb's are also poor at 94%, but not nearly as bad.
So although Hershiser's stats are slightly more dominant, some of the statistical diffference can be attributed to (1) the era when there were more complete games and (2) weaker competition.
To see how that bodes for Webb in his next three games, let's see what Hershiser did in his last two games of his streak.
IP H BB K PC GS RS sOPS+
Hershiser 19 9 3 5 228 82 3 94
He got tougher on baserunners, and maintained a high average game score (which isn't hurt by a 10 inning complete game). His competition was a little better...about where Webb's has been. But Hershiser's pitch count per game rose by 10 pitches a game and his strikeout rate plummeted. Perhaps that's the quality of the competition kicking in. Interestingly, his run support continued to be horrible.
Webb's going to need at least three games to reach Hershiser's record. If the rotation holds up, he'll be at Atlanta, home against Milwaukee and at San Diego. Their average sOPS+ (as of now) is 93, but that's a deceiving number brought down by San Diego's 76 at home. Atlanta has a 100 at home and Milwaukee a 104 on the road.
To the extent run support is a factor, Webb might have an advantage. Atlanta, Milwaukee and San Diego (especially) have some quality starters that may keep the games close.
But until he gets past Atlanta and Milwaukee, it will be hard to convince me that something is better than Orel.
Wednesday, August 08, 2007
Pitcher Predictions -- Results
The refinements to the Predict-A-Matic seem to work better. Or I'm just lucky.
Overall Grade: B
Pitchers IP Hits HR BB SO ER 4+Runs 5+Runs
Wakefield (BOS) 6.1 6 0 2 3 2 23% 12%
4.0 6 0 2 2 2 Grade: A-
Saunders (LAA) 5.1 7 0 3 3 3 36% 24%
5.1 8 1 1 2 4 Grade: A
Bonser (MIN) 5.2 6 0 2 6 3 30% 16%
7.0 9 0 0 3 4 Grade: B-
Bannister (KCR) 5.2 7 0 2 2 2 24% 14%
7.0 6 0 1 1 1 Grade: A
Weaver (SEA) 5.1 7 0 1 2 2 28% 15%
6.0 11 0 0 3 3 Grade: B+
Trachsel (BAL) 5.2 6 0 2 1 2 26% 15%
5.2 8 1 3 1 2 Grade: A
Hammel (TBD) 5.2 9 0 6 5 6 75% 62%
4.0 10 0 1 3 5 Grade: A-
Robertson (DET) 5.2 7 1 2 4 3 37% 23%
7.2 9 1 0 9 3 Grade: C
Capuano (MIL) 5.1 6 0 2 6 3 32% 20%
5.0 7 1 3 3 4 Grade: B
Hirsh (COL) 5.2 7 2 2 4 4 49% 32%
6.0 3 0 2 2 2 Grade: C
Peavy (SDP) 6.2 5 0 1 6 1 7% 3%
6.0 3 0 2 5 0 Grade: A
Reyes (STL) 5.1 6 1 2 4 3 31% 17%
7.0 7 0 1 2 1 Grade: C
VandenHurk (FLA)4.1 5 2 2 5 4 55% 37%
2.1 5 0 5 1 6 Grade: B-
Moyer (PHI) 6.0 7 2 1 6 4 48% 31%
6.0 5 1 3 5 1 Grade: C
Bacsik (WSN) 5.1 7 0 2 1 3 36% 22%
5.0 7 2 1 5 5 Grade: B-
Zito (SFG) 6.0 6 0 2 4 2 27% 15%
5.0 6 3 3 2 4 Grade: C
Overall Grade: B
Thursday, August 02, 2007
Pitcher Prediction Evaluation
Pretty awful, but there were some very weird things going on today. Outlier performances are those performances that have less than a 15% chance of occurring. There were lots of those today. Outlier performances cannot be predicted.
Texas @ Cleveland
St. Louis @ Pittsburgh
Baltimore @ Boston
Chicago (AL) @ New York (AL)
New York (NL) @ Milwaukee
Philadelphia @ Chicago (NL)
Arizona @ San Diego
Cincinnati @ Washington
Colorado @ Florida
Houston @ Atlanta
Los Angeles (AL) @ Oakland
San Francisco @ Los Angeles (NL)
Team Winners (Grade: D):
CLE(Y), PIT(Y), BAL(N), NYY(N), MIL(N), CHN(N), SD(Y), CIN(N), COL(N), HOU(Y), LAA(Y), SF(Y)
Overall grade: C
Texas @ Cleveland
Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Gabbard 4.1 5 1 4 4 4 38%
5.2 8 0 1 4 3 Grade: D
Westbrook 5.2 6 0 2 4 2 13%
6.0 5 0 1 5 0 Grade: C
St. Louis @ Pittsburgh
Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Reyes 5.1 6 0 2 4 2 13%
5.0 4 0 3 4 3 Grade: B+
Youman 6.0 7 0 1 2 2 12%
5.0 5 0 3 3 3 Grade: C
Baltimore @ Boston
Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Guthrie 6.2 6 1 2 5 2 15%
5.1 9 2 4 3 3 Grade: D
Wakefield 6.0 7 0 2 3 3 21%
7.0 6 0 1 5 3 Grade: B-
Chicago (AL) @ New York (AL)
Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Garland 6.1 7 0 2 2 3 21%
1.1 9 1 0 1 8 Grade: F/outlier
Clemens 6.1 6 0 1 4 2 6%
1.2 9 0 0 0 3 Grade: outlier
(38 pitches)
New York (NL) @ Milwaukee
Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Lawrence 6.1 7 1 2 4 3 24%
5.0 8 1 0 3 3 Grade: C
Capuano 5.2 6 0 2 4 3 12%
6.0 10 2 1 8 5 Grade: outlier
(5 ER "<" 12%)
Philadelphia @ Chicago (NL)
Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Lohse 6.0 7 0 2 4 3 26%
1.0 2 0 1 0 1 Grade: outlier
(left with injury)
Marshall 5.2 5 0 2 4 2 13%
2.2 9 1 1 2 7 Grade: outlier
(7 ER "<" 1%)
Arizona @ San Diego
Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Petit 5.1 6 1 1 4 3 16%
4.1 5 2 4 4 5 Grade: F
Peavy 6.2 5 0 2 8 2 7%
7.0 3 0 1 10 0 Grade: B
Cincinnati @ Washington
Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Dumatrait 5.2 7 0 2 3 3 22%
3.1 8 0 3 3 6 Grade: D
Bacsik 5.2 7 1 1 2 3 25%
7.0 3 2 0 6 3 Grade: F
Colorado @ Florida
Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Hirsh 5.2 6 1 2 6 3 23%
5.1 6 2 4 8 3 Grade: A-
VandenHurk 4.2 6 0 3 5 3 25%
4.1 4 0 3 5 2 Grade: A
Houston @ Atlanta
Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Williams 5.2 7 1 2 3 3 28%
5.0 13 2 0 2 7 Grade: C-
Reyes 4.2 5 1 2 1 3 20%
3.0 4 2 4 1 4 Grade: C-
Los Angeles (AL) @ Oakland
Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Saunders 6.0 6 0 2 3 2 12%
6.2 6 1 2 3 2 Grade: A
Gaudin 5.2 6 0 3 3 2 15%
6.0 7 2 3 3 5 Grade: C-/outlier
San Francisco @ Los Angeles (NL)
Pitcher IP H HR BB SO ER 5+Run%
Zito 5.2 6 0 3 4 2 15%
5.2 7 0 2 5 1 Grade: A
Tomko 6.0 8 0 3 4 4 35%
5.0 5 0 3 1 3 Grade: B
Team Winners (Grade: D):
CLE(Y), PIT(Y), BAL(N), NYY(N), MIL(N), CHN(N), SD(Y), CIN(N), COL(N), HOU(Y), LAA(Y), SF(Y)
Overall grade: C
Sunday, July 29, 2007
Negative Game Scores
Since 1957, there have been only 108 games in which the starting pitcher has earned a negative game score*. Five have occurred this year: Simontacchi (-2), Shields (-3), Feierabend (-4), C.Lewis (-6) and Jon Garland (-11).
The first thing that strikes me here is that in 50 years, there are 108 such games (about 2 a year), but this year we've already got 5, and we are not even 2/3 of the way through the season. The second thing is how bad that Garland score is. Tied for 7th worst in the last 50 years.
But we're going to have another one. Jason Jennings gave up 11 earned runs in the first inning of today's game against the Padres. Although not "officially" computed by Baseballreference.com yet, I've got him with a game score of -11, tying Garland for the worst this year.
That's 6, and counting. We're on pace for 9 of these things, which would represent almost 9% of the below zero game scores since 1957.
*The Bill James Game Score is really a toy to determine how dominant a starting pitcher is on a game-by-game basis. Every pitcher starts the game with 50 points. You add 1 point for each out recorded, and 2 points for each inning (or fractional inning) completed after the 4th. You also add 1 point for each strikeout. Then, subtract 1 point for each walk, 2 points for each hit and unearned run allowed and 4 points for each earned run allowed.
The first thing that strikes me here is that in 50 years, there are 108 such games (about 2 a year), but this year we've already got 5, and we are not even 2/3 of the way through the season. The second thing is how bad that Garland score is. Tied for 7th worst in the last 50 years.
But we're going to have another one. Jason Jennings gave up 11 earned runs in the first inning of today's game against the Padres. Although not "officially" computed by Baseballreference.com yet, I've got him with a game score of -11, tying Garland for the worst this year.
That's 6, and counting. We're on pace for 9 of these things, which would represent almost 9% of the below zero game scores since 1957.
*The Bill James Game Score is really a toy to determine how dominant a starting pitcher is on a game-by-game basis. Every pitcher starts the game with 50 points. You add 1 point for each out recorded, and 2 points for each inning (or fractional inning) completed after the 4th. You also add 1 point for each strikeout. Then, subtract 1 point for each walk, 2 points for each hit and unearned run allowed and 4 points for each earned run allowed.
Saturday, July 21, 2007
More on Mussina
Delving into baseballreference.com's game details, I looked for all games in Mussina's career in which he earned a Bill James game score of 35 or less. My goal was inning pitch counts. I figured it was unlikely Mussina threw more than 46 pitches in an inning during a game in which he had a pretty good game score. It was also a means of narrowing my search.
Counting last night's games, Mussina has had 71 games with a game score <= 35. I was a little surprised by that number. That's nearly 15% of his starts. In future, I'll have to compare that to another Hall of Fame or near Hall of Fame pitcher to see if that is an unusually high percentage.
If you are going by how many times his game score was <=35 in a season, his worst years were '96, '00 and '05. Those weren't very bad years overall...he finished in the Top 5 Cy Young voting in '96. In fact, prior to this year, Mussina has not had an awful season. At his worst, he is league average, but usually well above.
So far, 2007 is his worst season statistically. And this year he is likely to exceed his previous high of 7 games with a game score of 35 or less, since he already has 5 in 16 starts.
I looked at all 71 of those games, searching for innings in which his pitch count was 35 or higher. Counting last night, there were only 12 such games. (Note, five of the 71 games had no pitch count data, but the pitch count estimator did not indicate that he would have been anywhere near 35 pitches in those five games). Here are those games, in chronological order:
So the top of the 3rd inning last night actually appears to be Mussina's longest inning by pitch count in his 17 year career, topping another tiring inning on August 3, 2005 by two pitches. Hats off to Joe Magrane.
Interestingly, in what was probably his worst outing ever on April 21, 1999 against the Devil Rays (mentioned in my earlier post, and earning his worst game score = 0!), he threw no more than 35 pitches in an inning. In fact, Mussina has five career games with a game score of 10 or lower and only two made the list for high pitch count innings with 35 and 36. High pitch count innings may not correlate well with low game scores, though I imagine they correlate better with low game scores than high ones.
Counting last night's games, Mussina has had 71 games with a game score <= 35. I was a little surprised by that number. That's nearly 15% of his starts. In future, I'll have to compare that to another Hall of Fame or near Hall of Fame pitcher to see if that is an unusually high percentage.
If you are going by how many times his game score was <=35 in a season, his worst years were '96, '00 and '05. Those weren't very bad years overall...he finished in the Top 5 Cy Young voting in '96. In fact, prior to this year, Mussina has not had an awful season. At his worst, he is league average, but usually well above.
So far, 2007 is his worst season statistically. And this year he is likely to exceed his previous high of 7 games with a game score of 35 or less, since he already has 5 in 16 starts.
I looked at all 71 of those games, searching for innings in which his pitch count was 35 or higher. Counting last night, there were only 12 such games. (Note, five of the 71 games had no pitch count data, but the pitch count estimator did not indicate that he would have been anywhere near 35 pitches in those five games). Here are those games, in chronological order:
Date Pitches Inn Opp
5-21-93 39 Top 3rd MIL
6-18-95 38 Bot 1st DET
4-21-99 35 Bot 4th TBD
4-21-01 35 Top 4th BOS
6-5-01 39 Top 2nd BAL
7-31-02 36 Bot 2nd TEX
8-6-02 38 Top 3rd KCR
7-1-03 35 Bot 3rd BAL
5-29-05 35 Top 1st BOS
8-3-05 44 Bot 5th CLE
9-24-06 35 Bot 4th TBD
7-20-07 46 Top 3rd TBD
So the top of the 3rd inning last night actually appears to be Mussina's longest inning by pitch count in his 17 year career, topping another tiring inning on August 3, 2005 by two pitches. Hats off to Joe Magrane.
Interestingly, in what was probably his worst outing ever on April 21, 1999 against the Devil Rays (mentioned in my earlier post, and earning his worst game score = 0!), he threw no more than 35 pitches in an inning. In fact, Mussina has five career games with a game score of 10 or lower and only two made the list for high pitch count innings with 35 and 36. High pitch count innings may not correlate well with low game scores, though I imagine they correlate better with low game scores than high ones.
Friday, July 20, 2007
Mussina's Pitch Count
You hear a lot about pitch counts and whether (or how) they injure arms. Mike Mussina only threw 93 pitches against the Devil Rays tonight. That was in 4 2/3 innings, because Mussina was way off his game.
But most interesting is how many pitches he threw in top of the third. It was a bad inning for him...four runs scored. The damage could have been worse. He went to a full count on 5 hitters in that inning alone, and threw 46 pitches. 46 pitches in one inning?
Joe Magrane said he thought that was probably a record for Mussina. That's probably verifiable if you dig through RetroSheet data, or if you have a subscription to the Play Index at Baseball Reference.com.
Since I don't have time to pour through 15 years of Mussina games on Retrosheet, and have not yet subscribed to the PI at Baseball Reference, I'll speculate.
One common, and fairly accurate, way of estimating pitch counts is the following formula: BFP*3.3 + 1.5*SO + 2.2*(HBP+BB). Mussina faced 10 hitters in the 3rd inning, with one K and three walks. That's about 41 pitches. That means Mussina threw 4 more pitches than we would expect. Not a striking figure.
Has he ever had another inning where he faced 10 hitters and walked at least three? When viewed that way, it seems more likely. I don't know the answer, but Mussina gave up 10 runs in 3 2/3 innings in 1999, facing 24 batters in that short span. He threw 35 pitches in the bottom of the 4th of that game. Against who? The Devil Rays! That included a 9 pitch at bat by Wade Boggs.
That leads me to believe that his 46 pitch inning might not conclusively be the worst he's had in terms of pitch counts. I bet it is a close call.
By the way, Justin Upton hit a monster home run in that inning, off a horrible middle-in pitch from Mussina. In the post-game interview, Upton said it was the longest ball he had ever hit, and he turned it around so fast, he didn't even feel it hit the bat.
But most interesting is how many pitches he threw in top of the third. It was a bad inning for him...four runs scored. The damage could have been worse. He went to a full count on 5 hitters in that inning alone, and threw 46 pitches. 46 pitches in one inning?
Joe Magrane said he thought that was probably a record for Mussina. That's probably verifiable if you dig through RetroSheet data, or if you have a subscription to the Play Index at Baseball Reference.com.
Since I don't have time to pour through 15 years of Mussina games on Retrosheet, and have not yet subscribed to the PI at Baseball Reference, I'll speculate.
One common, and fairly accurate, way of estimating pitch counts is the following formula: BFP*3.3 + 1.5*SO + 2.2*(HBP+BB). Mussina faced 10 hitters in the 3rd inning, with one K and three walks. That's about 41 pitches. That means Mussina threw 4 more pitches than we would expect. Not a striking figure.
Has he ever had another inning where he faced 10 hitters and walked at least three? When viewed that way, it seems more likely. I don't know the answer, but Mussina gave up 10 runs in 3 2/3 innings in 1999, facing 24 batters in that short span. He threw 35 pitches in the bottom of the 4th of that game. Against who? The Devil Rays! That included a 9 pitch at bat by Wade Boggs.
That leads me to believe that his 46 pitch inning might not conclusively be the worst he's had in terms of pitch counts. I bet it is a close call.
By the way, Justin Upton hit a monster home run in that inning, off a horrible middle-in pitch from Mussina. In the post-game interview, Upton said it was the longest ball he had ever hit, and he turned it around so fast, he didn't even feel it hit the bat.
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