Team Predictions

There's a great new site to keep track of MLB depth charts.  Using the data here, and the Lineup Analyzer at Baseball Musings, I estimated the number of runs each team would score based on the player's PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus.  Obviously each team won't have this full starting lineup in place every night, but this is just a fun exercise.  Also, I used a regressed version of the output from the Lineup Analyzer.  David Pinto found that it overestimates runs somewhat, so the output was plugged into the regression formula 1.055x -.3231.

Having determined the Runs Scored (RS), I needed a source for Runs Against (RA) so I used the team RAs from Baseball Prospectus, but scaled them down to account for the fact that my cumulative RS was lower than BP's projected RA.

With RA and RS, I used the xlsSports MLB Monte Carlo simulator and ran 1,000 seasons.  I used a standard deviation of .01 in the AL and .02 in the NL, based on the variation in runs scored by various lineups.  Changing a lineup in the AL can make about a 2 win difference, but changing a lineup in the NL can make a 4 win difference. Here are the results, showing the W-L records for the playoff teams, and games back for everyone else.

AL East               AL Central          AL West         
Yankees    101-61     Indians    86-76    Athletics  84-78
Red Sox     97-65     Tigers         5    Angels         4
Rays            9     White Sox      9    Mariners       8
Blue Jays      25     Twins         12    Rangers       14
Orioles        34     Royals        12

NL East               NL Central          NL West         
Mets        87-75     Cubs       97-65    Dodgers    93-69
Braves          1     Brewers    88-74    D-backs        3
Phillies        1     Cardinals     14    Giants        17
Nationals       7     Reds          20    Padres        18
Marlins        17     Astros        25    Rockies       21
                      Pirates       34

Worth mentioning that I docked the Yankees a month's worth of A-Rod, and docked the Twins a month's worth of Mauer.

I was surprised at the Orioles' performance. I thought it would be better than the Blue Jays. I was also surprised at the Angels coming in below .500. In the NL, I'm not sure I'm buying the Nats finishing only 7 games and two games shy of .500. I'm also surprised the Rockies are worse than the Padres and Giants. The current Giants lineup is projected to be (by a long shot) the worst offensive team in baseball.

For the playoffs, this would give us the Red Sox and Brewers as the wild card teams, each of whom is in the same division as the team with the best record.

The Division Series would be Athletics at Yankees, and Red Sox at Indians in the AL. Mets at Cubs, and Brewers at Dodgers in the NL. In 50 simulations of these series (a lower number because I had to do them manually):

Yankees beat the A's 80% of the time, most often in a three game sweep.
Red Sox beat the Indians 70% of the time, most often in four games.
Cubs beat the Mets 60% of the time, most often in four games.
Dodgers beat the Brewers 64% of the time, most often in five games.

The ALCS would play out as Red Sox vs. Yankees, and Dodgers vs. Cubs. In 50 sims of those:

Yankees beat the Red Sox 58% of the time, most often in six games.
Cubs beat the Dodgers 54% of the time, most often in six games.

That gives us a Cubs-Yankees World Series. I ran the sims with the AL having the home field advantage, since it typically wins the All-Star game and is the stronger league right now. In 50 sims, the Yankees destroyed the Cubs, winning the series 74% of the time, most often in a full seven game series.

The sleeper teams are the Braves and Diamondbacks in the NL, and the Rays and Angels in the AL, if you can consider two teams from last year's playoffs "sleepers". For a real sleeper, see the Tigers.

The only teams with absolutely no chance of making the playoffs in the 1,000 season sim were the Orioles and the Pirates.

Adam Dunn Projection

I thought it might be interesting to try and project Adam Dunn's post-August output, considering that he has moved to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

For these numbers, I have more or less ignored the fact that he played for Cincinnati for the first 10 days of August, and for ease of calculation, have pretended he was traded July 31.

I used a very simple projection model, weighting his last three years (2005-2007) in Cincinnati, comparing his pre-August to post-August performances, taking into account his abnormally low BABIP this year, and making some park adjustments from Cincinnati to Arizona. For park factor purposes, I treated him as I would any other player moving from park to park.

There's a caveat here, and that is Adam Dunn has always hit poorly in Arizona. His career OPS in all parks is 900, but in Arizona it is 735, and that's despite Arizona being at least as good a hitters park as Cincinnati. The reason I have not used that as a benchmark is that it represents only 150 plate appearances. The randomness in that 735 number is likely pretty high...perhaps as much as 100 points of OPS, most of it found in his slugging percentage, and most of that in his home run rate.

So here's the projection:

PA   AB   R   H  2b  3b  HR  RBI  BB  SO GDP  Avg/ OBP/ SLG
203 155  27  36   5   0  12   36  47  47   1 .234/.407/.501

You might want to discount that a little for the problems he has had in Arizona. What the heck, here's a rough estimate, taking into account his struggles in Arizona:

PA   AB   R   H  2b  3b  HR  RBI  BB  SO GDP  Avg/ OBP/ SLG
203 155  25  35   6   0  10   33  44  44   1 .226/.389/.458

At the end of the season, we'll see how close the actual August/September stats are, with allowances for small sample sizes for those two months of 2008.

Predicting Pitchers

To give an idea how difficult it is to nail a pitcher's performance on any given night with a game simulator, let's look at Carlos Zambrano. His line last night:

Actual 6.0 IP, 4H, 0Hr, 2Bb, 5K, 0Er
Predic 6.7 IP, 6H, 0Hr, 2Bb 4K, 2Er

Not too bad from the predictor, but obviously not perfect. I looked at the sim and calculated the odds of getting within one measure of the actual performance in each category. So, I calculated the odds of predicting between 5.7 and 6.3 IP, 3-5 hits, 1-3 walks, 4-6 strikeouts and 0-1 earned runs. For homers, I calculated the percentage for the exact number. Here are the odds of me coming that close with a 500 game sim, for each of the categories:

IP: 29%
H: 33%
HR: 52%
BB: 64%
SO: 49%
ER: 33%

Home runs I have a decent shot at, as rarely are there more than 2 HR in a game, so predicting that a good pitcher like Zambrano will have 0 is a even proposition. Walk and strikeout rates are a little easier too. But I have only about a 1/3 chance of getting within 1/3 of an inning or within 1 hit, or 1 earned run, of the actual performance.

Those are the stats in isolation. What about combining them? The simulator had Zambrano with between 5.7-6.3 IP and 3-5 hits, only 8% of the time. The simulator had Zambrano with between 5.7-6.3 IP and 0-1 earned runs, only 10% of the time.

And the big one: the simulator had Zambrano with between 5.7-6.3 IP and 3-5 hits and 0-1 earned runs, only 5% of the time. It found the exact combination of IP(6), Hits(4) and Earned Runs(0) only once out of 500 simulations. In that instance, Zambrano gave up 0 homers (accurate), 4 walks (off by 2) and 6 strikeouts (off by 1).

That's how hard it is to predict the performance.

Which got me thinking about whether I should bother. Perhaps I should simply predict the odds of being excellent, good, average, below average and poor. Or, simpler still, the odds of being above average and below average. The question is how to measure those. I could do so with game scores.

Zambrano's game score for last night was 67. The simulator only predicted 9 out of 500 games to have that exact game score. But only 20% of the performances in the majors have game scores 65 or higher, and the sim found 25% of Zambrano's game to be 65 or higher, 21% to be 56-64, 20% to be 47-55, 19% to be 36-46 and 15% to be 35 or lower.

Perhaps that's more useful than the other stats. Or the above average, below average moniker: His odds of a top 40% performance (game score 56 or higher) were 46%, and his odds of a bottom 40% performance 46 or lower were 34%.

Game score is imperfect, though. A pitcher can mitigate giving up runs by striking out a lot of hitters.

Predict-a-Matic Results: July 4, 2008

Yesterday's predictions.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Beckett (BOS)   6.6  6   1   1   7   2  61  16%  14%
                6.0  4   0   2   4   3  54  Grade: B
Rasner (NYY)    5.0  6   0   1   3   2  48  17%  14%
                5.0 10   1   3   2   6  22  Grade: C-
----------------------------------------------------
Bergmann (WSN)  5.0  6   1   2   5   3  45   8%  25%
                6.0  6   1   3   5   2  54  Grade: B+
Arroyo (CIN)    5.8  6   0   2   5   2  54  17%  18%
                6.0  5   0   3   3   0  62  Grade: B
---------------------------------------------------
Rogers (DET)    5.8  7   0   2   2   2  49  17%  14%
                7.7  6   1   2   3   4  54  Grade: C-
Bedard (SEA)    6.0  6   1   2   7   2  57  20%  12%
                5.0  5   1   3   6   1  53  Grade: B
---------------------------------------------------
Gorzelanny (PIT)5.4  6   1   3   4   3  45   9%  29%
                4.7 11   2   4   4   7  16  Grade: C
Sheets (MIL)    6.3  6   1   1   5   2  57  21%  10%
                5.7  8   0   3   6   1  54  Grade: B
---------------------------------------------------
Padilla (TEX)   4.9  7   1   2   3   3  42   7%  30%
                2.7  9   0   2   0   8   6  Grade: D
Guthrie (BAL)   6.1  6   1   2   5   3  51  12%  19%
                6.7  8   0   2   6   4  47  Grade: B
---------------------------------------------------
Lowe (LAD)      6.3  7   0   1   5   2  54  22%  11%
                5.0  8   0   0   2   4  37  Grade: C
Sanchez (SFG)   6.0  6   0   3   6   2  55  24%  13%
                5.0  5   1   3   7   3  49  Grade: B
---------------------------------------------------
Bannister (KCR) 5.8  6   0   2   4   2  52  14%  15%
                5.0  8   1   1   6   6  32  Grade: C-
Jackson (TBR)   5.7  6   0   2   4   2  52  17%  14%
                8.0  4   1   1   2   1  71  Grade: D+
---------------------------------------------------
Blanton (OAK)   6.3  7   1   2   3   3  48  11%  22%
                7.0  6   0   2   5   1  64  Grade: C+
Buehrle (CHW)   6.3  7   0   2   4   2  53  13%  15%
                5.7 10   1   3   5   4  37  Grade: C+
---------------------------------------------------
Moehler (HOU)   6.4  7   1   2   4   3  49  11%  23%
                6.0  6   1   3   1   5  38  Grade: B
Hudson (ATL)    6.7  6   0   1   5   1  62  28%   6%
                7.0  4   0   3   6   1  68  Grade: A
---------------------------------------------------
Byrd (CLE)      6.0  8   1   1   2   3  47  14%  19%
                5.3  8   2   3   4   6  30  Grade: C
Hernandez (MIN) 5.8  7   1   2   3   3  47   8%  25%
                6.0  5   2   3   4   3  51  Grade: A-
---------------------------------------------------
Olsen (FLA)     5.1  6   1   3   4   3  44   9%  32%
                5.0 11   3   1   3   8  15  Grade: C
Reynolds (COL)  5.0  7   1   2   2   4  37   9%  35%
                1.3  7   2   2   0   7  10  Grade: F
---------------------------------------------------
Burnett (TOR)   6.5  6   1   2   6   2  58  16%  14%
                7.0 12   2   0   3   6  32  Grade: F         
Weaver (LAA)    6.2  6   0   1   3   2  53  17%  12%
                7.3  6   0   1   6   2  64  Grade: B+
---------------------------------------------------
Zambrano (CHC)  6.2  6   0   2   4   2  54  15%  15%
                6.0  4   0   2   5   0  67  Grade: B
Looper (STL)    5.6  7   0   2   3   2  49  14%  15%
                7.0  6   2   1   5   2  61  Grade: B-

Pitcher Boom Games: Avg. GS: 53

Pitcher Bust Games: Avg GS: 10

Hitter Boom Games: .440/.495/.758 11dbl 6hr 10bb 21r 26rbi

Hitter Bust Games: .250/.276/.357 6dbl 2bb 7r 6rbi

Game Winners: 9-4

Predict-a-Matic: July 4, 2008

13 of the 15 games:

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Beckett (BOS)   6.6  6   1   1   7   2  61  16%  14%
Rasner (NYY)    5.0  6   0   1   3   2  48  17%  14%
Bergmann (WSN)  5.0  6   1   2   5   3  45   8%  25%
Arroyo (CIN)    5.8  6   0   2   5   2  54  17%  18%
Rogers (DET)    5.8  7   0   2   2   2  49  17%  14%
Bedard (SEA)    6.0  6   1   2   7   2  57  20%  12%
Gorzelanny (PIT)5.4  6   1   3   4   3  45   9%  29%
Sheets (MIL)    6.3  6   1   1   5   2  57  21%  10%
Padilla (TEX)   4.9  7   1   2   3   3  42   7%  30%
Guthrie (BAL)   6.1  6   1   2   5   3  51  12%  19%
Lowe (LAD)      6.3  7   0   1   5   2  54  22%  11%
Sanchez (SFG)   6.0  6   0   3   6   2  55  24%  13%
Bannister (KCR) 5.8  6   0   2   4   2  52  14%  15%
Jackson (TBR)   5.7  6   0   2   4   2  52  17%  14%
Blanton (OAK)   6.3  7   1   2   3   3  48  11%  22%
Buehrle (CHW)   6.3  7   0   2   4   2  53  13%  15%
Moehler (HOU)   6.4  7   1   2   4   3  49  11%  23%
Hudson (ATL)    6.7  6   0   1   5   1  62  28%   6%
Byrd (CLE)      6.0  8   1   1   2   3  47  14%  19%
Hernandez (MIN) 5.8  7   1   2   3   3  47   8%  25%
Olsen (FLA)     5.1  6   1   3   4   3  44   9%  32%
Reynolds (COL)  5.0  7   1   2   2   4  37   9%  35%
Burnett (TOR)   6.5  6   1   2   6   2  58  16%  14%
Weaver (LAA)    6.2  6   0   1   3   2  53  17%  12%
Zambrano (CHC)  6.2  6   0   2   4   2  54  15%  15%
Looper (STL)    5.6  7   0   2   3   2  49  14%  15%

Pitcher Boom Games: Beckett, Bedard, Sheets, Sanchez, Hudson

Pitcher Bust Games: Olsen, Reynolds

Hitter Boom Games: Manny, Aramis, Fukudome, Pujols, Sizemore, Blake, Morneau, Kubel, Hanley, Jacobs, Hawpe, Tulowitzki, McCann, Chipper, C.Pena, Kent, Thome, Fielder, Hardy, Hamilton, Bradley, Huff, Markakis, Dukes, Dunn, Griffey

Hitter Bust Games: Jeter, Abreu, Schumaker, Kennedy, Gomez, Renteria, Granderson, Bloomquist, Bourne, Pence, G.Blanco, Gathright, Bartlett, Iwamura, Berroa, F.Lewis, J.Wilson, F.Sanchez, Eckstein, Scutaro, Kendrick, E.Aybar

Game Winners: Boston, Cubs, Cleveland, Seattle, Florida*, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Dodgers*, White Sox, Milwaukee, Baltimore, Toronto*, Cincinnati

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 30, 2008

The system vastly underpredicts Glen Perkins every time out, and vastly overestimates Greg Maddux (and Pedro too...must be a predilection for HoFers past their prime).

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Greinke (KCR)   6.1  6   1   2   5   2  54  33%   25%
                5.0  7   1   1   5   5  37  Grade: C+
Burres (BAL)    5.9  7   1   2   4   3  48  13%   20%
                5.0  5   0   3   3   1  53  Grade: C+
----------------------------------------------------
Maine (NYM)     6.0  6   1   2   5   2  54  38%   27%
                4.0  7   0   3   1   3  34  Grade: C-  
Lohse (STL)     5.7  6   0   2   3   2  51  20%   16%
                7.0  5   0   2   4   0  69  Grade: C+
----------------------------------------------------
Feldman (TEX)   5.7  8   1   4   3   4  37  14%   58%
                5.7  4   1   3   3   1  59  Grade: B-
Mussina (NYY)   5.3  7   1   1   3   2  48  13%   17%
                6.0  5   0   2   8   2  60  Grade: B-(over penalty)
----------------------------------------------------
Maholm (PIT)    5.5  7   1   2   4   3  44  21%   45%
                7.0  5   1   2   5   2  62  Grade: C+
Harang (CIN)    6.2  7   1   1   6   3  53  12%   18%
                7.0  7   1   1   8   3  58  Grade: A
----------------------------------------------------
Masterson (BOS) 5.5  6   1   3   4   3  49  31%   30%
                6.0  5   2   5   5   4  46  Grade: B
Shields (TBR)   6.8  6   1   1   6   3  59  15%   16%
                6.3  5   1   1   5   2  60  Grade: A
----------------------------------------------------
Galarraga (DET) 6.2  6   1   2   4   2  55  37%   27%
                6.0  9   0   1   3   3  44  Grade: B+
Perkins (MIN)   5.9  8   1   2   3   3  45   9%   30%
                6.3  7   1   1   7   2  58  Grade: B+
----------------------------------------------------
Sowers (CLE)    4.6  7   1   2   2   3  39  19%   48%
                3.0  6   2   2   2   8  15  Grade: C-(under bonus)
Floyd (CHW)     5.5  6   1   2   5   3  47   6%   32%
                6.0  7   1   2  10   3  54  Grade: A
----------------------------------------------------
Maddux (SDP)    5.8  7   0   1   3   2  50  34%   25%
                4.7  8   1   3   1   8  16  Grade: D
de la Rosa (COL)5.2  6   1   2   4   3  45  10%   23%
                5.0 11   2   0   3   6  24  Grade: C
----------------------------------------------------
Smith (OAK)     5.7  6   1   3   3   3  47  31%   35%
                9.0  4   1   2   3   1  76  Grade: C-(over bonus)
Garland (LAA)   6.0  7   0   2   3   2  51  12%   19%
                6.0  8   0   1   6   2  53  Grade: A
----------------------------------------------------
Bush (MIL)      5.3  7   1   2   4   3  45  23%   39%
                5.0  9   0   2   1   4  32  Grade: A-(under bonus)
Davis (ARI)     5.6  6   1   3   5   3  48  11%   22%
                5.7  5   0   4   3   3  48  Grade: A
----------------------------------------------------
Halladay (TOR)  7.2  8   0   1   4   2  57  38%   25%
                9.0  4   0   0   6   0  85  Grade: C (over bonus)
Dickey (SEA)    6.1  7   0   2   4   3  47  11%   24%
                6.3  9   0   1   3   2  50  Grade: A-
----------------------------------------------------
Lilly (CHC)     5.9  6   0   2   5   2  55  42%   20%
                8.0  7   0   2   5   2  63  Grade: B (over bonus)
Zito (SFG)      5.3  6   0   3   4   2  49  15%   16%
                5.0  6   1   5   6   4  40  Grade: B

Pitcher Boom Games: Avg. GS: 66

Pitcher Bust Games: Avg. GS: 37

Hitter Boom Games: .288 3dbl 6hr (.477slg) 15r 21rbi

Hitter Bust Games: .338 1dbl 2hr (.441slg) 11r 7rbi

Game Winners: 9-3

Predict-a-Matic: June 30, 2008

12 games, with the new algorithms.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Greinke (KCR)   6.1  6   1   2   5   2  54  33%   25%
Burres (BAL)    5.9  7   1   2   4   3  48  13%   20%
Maine (NYM)     6.0  6   1   2   5   2  54  38%   27%
Lohse (STL)     5.7  6   0   2   3   2  51  20%   16%
Feldman (TEX)   5.7  8   1   4   3   4  37  14%   58%
Mussina (NYY)   5.3  7   1   1   3   2  48  13%   17%
Maholm (PIT)    5.5  7   1   2   4   3  44  21%   45%
Harang (CIN)    6.2  7   1   1   6   3  53  12%   18%
Masterson (BOS) 5.5  6   1   3   4   3  49  31%   30%
Shields (TBR)   6.8  6   1   1   6   3  59  15%   16%
Galarraga (DET) 6.2  6   1   2   4   2  55  37%   27%
Perkins (MIN)   5.9  8   1   2   3   3  45   9%   30%
Sowers (CLE)    4.6  7   1   2   2   3  39  19%   48%
Floyd (CHW)     5.5  6   1   2   5   3  47   6%   32%
Maddux (SDP)    5.8  7   0   1   3   2  50  34%   25%
de la Rosa (COL)5.2  6   1   2   4   3  45  10%   23%
Smith (OAK)     5.7  6   1   3   3   3  47  31%   35%
Garland (LAA)   6.0  7   0   2   3   2  51  12%   19%
Bush (MIL)      5.3  7   1   2   4   3  45  23%   39%
Davis (ARI)     5.6  6   1   3   5   3  48  11%   22%
Halladay (TOR)  7.2  8   0   1   4   2  57  38%   25%
Dickey (SEA)    6.1  7   0   2   4   3  47  11%   24%
Lilly (CHC)     5.9  6   0   2   5   2  55  42%   20%
Zito (SFG)      5.3  6   0   3   4   2  49  15%   16%

Pitcher Boom Games: Harang, Shields, Halladay, Lilly

Pitcher Bust Games: Feldman, Sowers

Hitter Boom Games: Pena, Hinske, D.Lee, Aramis, Sizemore, Garko, Thome, Dye, M.Cabrera, Ordonez, J.Guillen, Aviles, Scott, Hart, Fielder, Reynolds, Byrnes, Beltran, Pujols, Cust, V.Guerrero, Napoli, McLouth, Dunn, Phillips, Hawpe, Headley, Kouzmanoff, Hamilton, Bradley, ARod, Betemit, Wells, Rolen

Hitter Bust Games: Moss, Varitek, Bartlett, Lewis, J.Castillo, Carroll, Del.Young, Casilla, Gathright, Cintron, A.Jones, En.Chavez, Miles, Kennedy, E.Aybar, Taveras, E.Gonzalez, McDonald, Vidro, Reed

Game Winners: Tampa Bay, Cubs, White Sox, Detroit, Kansas City*, Milwaukee*, St. Louis, Angels, Cincinnati, San Diego, Yankees, Toronto

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 29, 2008

Slowey with the performance of the day, and he was on my bust list! Too many more days like these weekend games, and I'm going to stop predicting booms, busts and games.

On the other hand, I have a thought about how to improve the game predictor, and I spent the evening messing with the play-by-play algorithms. I think I have a more accurate way to reflect the park factors and platoon splits.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Arroyo   (CIN)  5.2  7   1   2   6   3  50  25%   37%
                6.0  5   1   2   6   1  62  Grade: B+
Laffey   (CLE)  5.2  6   0   1   3   2  52  22%   14%
                5.0  8   1   1   2   5  32  Grade: C (under penalty)
-----------------------------------------------------
Haren    (ARI)  6.2  6   1   1   7   2  60  36%   27%
                7.0  5   0   2   7   0  72  Grade: B+
Olsen    (FLA)  5.1  6   1   3   4   3  45  13%   22%
                7.0  5   1   2   4   3  57  Grade: B
-----------------------------------------------------
Reynolds (COL)  5.0  7   1   2   2   3  40  19%   48%
                5.2 10   0   0   3   4  38  Grade: B (under bonus)
Rogers   (DET)  5.1  6   0   3   3   3  45  14%   21%
                6.0  8   1   2   2   3  44  Grade: A-
-----------------------------------------------------
Rasner   (NYY)  5.0  6   0   1   3   2  48  36%   25%
                5.0  8   1   3   3   2  43  Grade: A
Perez    (NYM)  5.1  5   1   3   5   3  49  12%   20%
                7.0  3   1   0   8   1  75  Grade: D (over penalty)
-----------------------------------------------------
Reyes    (ATL)  5.0  6   1   3   3   2  47  33%   29%
                7.0  6   0   2   5   1  64  Grade: C+(over bonus)
Burnett  (TOR)  6.1  5   0   3   7   2  59  19%   13%
                7.0  4   0   4  11   0  76  Grade: B-
-----------------------------------------------------
Sheets   (MIL)  6.1  7   0   1   5   2  57  43%   21%
                7.0  9   1   2   7   5  44  Grade: C
Slowey   (MIN)  5.1  7   2   1   5   3  46   5%   33%
                9.0  3   0   0   8   0  89  Grade: F
-----------------------------------------------------
Looper   (STL)  5.2  7   0   1   3   2  49  35%   28%
                3.1  6   0   4   2   2  38  Grade: C+(under bonus)
Bannister(KCR)  5.2  7   1   2   3   2  49  14%   18%
                4.2  9   1   4   1   7  17  Grade: D
-----------------------------------------------------
Beckett  (BOS)  7.1  7   1   1   8   2  64  46%   18%
                7.0  8   1   1   4   2  56  Grade: A
Moeller  (HOU)  6.2  7   1   2   4   3  51  11%   21%
                5.2  7   1   3   5   1  55  Grade: B
-----------------------------------------------------
Sanchez  (SFG)  5.2  5   0   3   7   2  55  42%   21%
                7.0  4   1   1   6   1  70  Grade: B (over bonus)
Blanton  (OAK)  7.0  7   0   1   3   2  57  24%   10%
                4.0  8   0   1   3   7  20  Grade: F
-----------------------------------------------------
Bedard   (SEA)  6.1  6   0   1   7   2  59  46%   19%
                5.2  3   0   3   3   1  61  Grade: B-
Peavy    (SDP)  7.0  6   0   1   7   1  66  32%    4%
                6.0 10   1   1   6   3  45  Grade: C-(under penalty)
-----------------------------------------------------
Lackey   (LAA)  7.0  7   0   1   5   2  58  42%   21%
                8.2  3   0   2   9   0  84  Grade: C-(over bonus)
Lowe     (LAD)  6.1  6   0   1   5   2  57  21%   11%
                7.0  5   0   2   7   1  68  Grade: B
-----------------------------------------------------
Marshall (CHC)  5.0  5   1   2   3   2  49  37%   26%
                7.0  5   2   1   5   3  59  Grade: C
Buehrle  (CHW)  6.0  7   1   2   4   2  51  16%   20%
                7.0  6   0   2   5   0  68  Grade: C+

Pitcher Boom Games: Avg. GS: 59

Pitcher Bust Games: Avg. GS: 63

Hitter Boom Games: .223 2Dbl 4HR 7R 9RBI

Hitter Bust Games: 15-63 1Tpl 2Hr 5R, 5RBI

Game Winners: 3-9

Predict-a-Matic: June 29, 2008

After today I'm revising the boom criteria. Too many boom predictions.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Arroyo   (CIN)  5.2  7   1   2   6   3  50  25%   37%
Laffey   (CLE)  5.2  6   0   1   3   2  52  22%   14%
Haren    (ARI)  6.2  6   1   1   7   2  60  36%   27%
Olsen    (FLA)  5.1  6   1   3   4   3  45  13%   22%
Reynolds (COL)  5.0  7   1   2   2   3  40  19%   48%
Rogers   (DET)  5.1  6   0   3   3   3  45  14%   21%
Rasner   (NYY)  5.0  6   0   1   3   2  48  36%   25%
Perez    (NYM)  5.1  5   1   3   5   3  49  12%   20%
Reyes    (ATL)  5.0  6   1   3   3   2  47  33%   29%
Burnett  (TOR)  6.1  5   0   3   7   2  59  19%   13%
Sheets   (MIL)  6.1  7   0   1   5   2  57  43%   21%
Slowey   (MIN)  5.1  7   2   1   5   3  46   5%   33%
Looper   (STL)  5.2  7   0   1   3   2  49  35%   28%
Bannister(KCR)  5.2  7   1   2   3   2  49  14%   18%
Beckett  (BOS)  7.1  7   1   1   8   2  64  46%   18%
Moeller  (HOU)  6.2  7   1   2   4   3  51  11%   21%
Sanchez  (SFG)  5.2  5   0   3   7   2  55  42%   21%
Blanton  (OAK)  7.0  7   0   1   3   2  57  24%   10%
Bedard   (SEA)  6.1  6   0   1   7   2  59  46%   19%
Peavy    (SDP)  7.0  6   0   1   7   1  66  32%    4%
Lackey   (LAA)  7.0  7   0   1   5   2  58  42%   21%
Lowe     (LAD)  6.1  6   0   1   5   2  57  21%   11%
Marshall (CHC)  5.0  5   1   2   3   2  49  37%   26%
Buehrle  (CHW)  6.0  7   1   2   4   2  51  16%   20%

Pitcher Boom Games: Haren, Burnett, Sheets, Beckett, Moehler(??), Sanchez, Blanton, Bedard, Peavy, Lackey, Lowe

Pitcher Bust Games: Reynolds, Slowey

Hitter Boom Games: M.Reynolds, C.Young, Teixeira, Stairs, Barajas, Manny, J.D. Drew, Sizemore, Holliday, Atkins, Thames, M.Cabrera, Fielder, Hart, ARod, Posada, Beltran, Wright, Pujols, Ankiel, Aviles, Guerrero, Kotchman, Aramis, Thome, Dye

Hitter Bust Games: Treanor, Blanco, Francoeur, Lugo, Bourn, Wigginton, Bako, Taveras, Del.Young, Punto, Gathright, F.Lewis, J.Castillo, E.Brown, Hannahan, Clement, Betancourt, Gerut, Headley, Kendrick, Mathis, Berroa, Kemp

Game Winners: Arizona, Toronto, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee, Yankees, Kansas City, Oakland, San Diego, Dodgers, White Sox

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 28, 2008

What a pitching night. Five pitchers with game scores better than 75. And a no hitter from Jeff Weaver (with relief help), but he lost anyway.

Pretty good pitcher results. Lots of A and B grades and no Fs. The Boom Pitchers look good with the average GS, but included Vazquez and Lester, who gave two of the worst performances. The Boom Hitters were so-so...they did about what you'd expect from good hitters. The Bust Pitchers were pretty accurate. The Bust Hitters were a little better than you might expect, except weak in the power department (only a .369 slugging pct). Game predictor was again useless.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Webb     (ARI)  7.1  6   0   1   8   2  63  45%   19%
                6.0  5   0   3   8   2  59  Grade: B+
Miller   (FLA)  5.0  5   0   2   5   2  52  21%   12%
                5.2  5   0   3   4   3  50  Grade: A-
-----------------------------------------------------
Olson    (BAL)  5.0  5   0   3   4   2  50  44%   23%
                5.0  6   0   3   5   1  53  Grade: A
Lannan   (WSN)  5.2  6   0   2   3   2  51  18%   16%
                5.0  7   2   1   1   4  37  Grade: C+
-----------------------------------------------------
Lester   (BOS)  6.0  6   0   2   4   2  54  40%   27%
                5.0  9   2   0   3   6  28  Grade: D
Backe    (HOU)  5.2  7   1   2   4   3  47  10%   23%
                5.1  9   0   3   5   6  29  Backe: C+
-----------------------------------------------------
Gallagher(CHC)  6.1  7   1   3   4   3  47  18%   46%
                6.0  8   2   3   8   5  41  Grade: B
Vazquez  (CHW)  6.1  6   1   2   7   2  58  16%   15%
                4.1  9   0   3   7   5  30  Grade: D
-----------------------------------------------------
Cueto    (CIN)  5.1  6   1   2   6   3  48  25%   39%
                6.1  5   1   3   2   0  63  Grade: C
Byrd     (CLE)  6.0  8   1   1   2   3  43  11%   27%
                6.0  6   1   3   4   4  45  Grade: A-
-----------------------------------------------------
Francis  (COL)  6.0  7   1   2   5   3  48  20%   41%
                6.0 11   1   2   2   4  34  Grade: A-(under bonus)
Verlander(DET)  6.1  6   0   2   6   2  57  16%   15%
                5.2  5   0   4   6   2  55  Grade: A
-----------------------------------------------------
Weaver   (LAA)  6.0  7   0   1   4   2  55  47%   21%
                6.0  0   0   3   6   0  75  Grade: B-(over bonus)
Billingsl(LAD)  6.0  6   0   2   6   2  56  22%   11%
                7.0  3   0   3   7   0  75  Grade: C+
-----------------------------------------------------
Parra    (MIL)  5.2  6   0   3   4   2  51  35%   27%
                7.0  2   0   4   6   0  75  Grade: C (over bonus)
Hernandez(MIN)  5.2  8   1   2   3   4  41   5%   36%
                7.0  7   0   4   5   4  48  Grade: B
-----------------------------------------------------
Pettitte (NYY)  6.0  7   0   2   4   2  51  33%   31%
                6.0  5   2   3   4   2  55  Grade: A
Santana  (NYM)  6.1  6   1   2   7   2  58  14%   18%
                6.0  4   0   4   8   3  56  Grade: B+
-----------------------------------------------------
Hamels   (PHI)  6.2  6   1   2   7   2  58  31%   27%
                7.0  6   1   2   8   4  55  Grade: A-
Padilla  (TEX)  5.0  6   1   2   4   3  44   5%   28%
                6.0  7   2   3   3   7  30  Grade: C (under bonus)
-----------------------------------------------------
Lincecum (SFG)  6.1  6   0   3   7   2  57  48%   19%
                7.0  5   0   3  11   0  75  Grade: B (over bonus)
Duchscher(OAK)  6.1  6   0   1   4   1  60  29%    6%
                8.0  2   0   1   4   1  77  Grade: B (over bonus)

Pitcher Boom Games: Avg. GS: 58

Pitcher Bust Games: Avg. GS: 41

Hitter Boom Games: .275 4Dbl 5HR 15R 16RBI

Hitter Bust Games: .262 4Dbl 1HR 5R 5RBI

Game Winners: 6-5

Predict-a-Matic: June 28, 2008

Let us pray, each in our own individual way, for a better Predict-A-Matic performance than yesterday's.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Webb     (ARI)  7.1  6   0   1   8   2  63  45%   19%
Miller   (FLA)  5.0  5   0   2   5   2  52  21%   12%
Olson    (BAL)  5.0  5   0   3   4   2  50  44%   23%
Lannan   (WSN)  5.2  6   0   2   3   2  51  18%   16%
Lester   (BOS)  6.0  6   0   2   4   2  54  40%   27%
Backe    (HOU)  5.2  7   1   2   4   3  47  10%   23%
Gallagher(CHC)  6.1  7   1   3   4   3  47  18%   46%
Vazquez  (CHW)  6.1  6   1   2   7   2  58  16%   15%
Cueto    (CIN)  5.1  6   1   2   6   3  48  25%   39%
Byrd     (CLE)  6.0  8   1   1   2   3  43  11%   27%
Francis  (COL)  6.0  7   1   2   5   3  48  20%   41%
Verlander(DET)  6.1  6   0   2   6   2  57  16%   15%
Weaver   (LAA)  6.0  7   0   1   4   2  55  47%   21%
Billingsl(LAD)  6.0  6   0   2   6   2  56  22%   11%
Parra    (MIL)  5.2  6   0   3   4   2  51  35%   27%
Hernandez(MIN)  5.2  8   1   2   3   4  41   5%   36%
Pettitte (NYY)  6.0  7   0   2   4   2  51  33%   31%
Santana  (NYM)  6.1  6   1   2   7   2  58  14%   18%
Hamels   (PHI)  6.2  6   1   2   7   2  58  31%   27%
Padilla  (TEX)  5.0  6   1   2   4   3  44   5%   28%
Lincecum (SFG)  6.1  6   0   3   7   2  57  48%   19%
Duchscher(OAK)  6.1  6   0   1   4   1  60  29%    6%

Pitcher Boom Games: Webb, Lester, Vazquez, Verlander, Weaver, Billingsley, Johan, Hamels, Lincecum, Duchscherer

Pitcher Bust Games: Gallagher, Byrd, Livan, Padilla

Hitter Boom Games: C.Jackson, Payton, Millar, Manny, Drew, Berkman, C.Lee, Thome, Dye, Dunn, Griffey, Sizemore, Garko, Thames, Sheffield, Loney, Fielder, Braun, ARod, Beltran, Utley, Howard, Bradley

Hitter Bust Games: Hermida, Jacobs, Fahey, Bourn, Loretta, Patterson, Cedeno, Taveras, Iannetta, Mathis, Figgins, Pierre, Kemp, C.Gomez, Abreu, Saltalamacchia, Byrd, F.Lewis, J.Castillo, Cust, Hannahan


Game Winners: Arizona, Washington, Boston, White Sox, Cleveland, Detroit, Dodgers, Milwaukee, Mets, Philadelphia, Oakland

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 27, 2008

Worst day for the Predict-A-Matic in memory (three F's and no A's????). When Sidney Ponson pitches well, you know the predictions are gonna be ugly.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Owings   (ARI)  5.2  6   1   1   5   2  54  36%   27%
                4.0  4   1   2   6   3  46  Grade: inj   
Nolasco  (FLA)  5.2  6   1   2   5   3  47   8%   26%
                8.0  6   0   1   9   1  74  Grade: D (over penalty)
----------------------------------------------------- 
Jurrjens (ATL)  5.1  5   0   2   3   2  51  44%   21%
                8.0  3   0   1   3   0  78  Grade: C-(over bonus)
McGowan  (TOR)  6.1  5   0   2   5   2  59  24%    8%
                7.1  8   1   3   4   4  48  Grade: C
-----------------------------------------------------
Cabrera  (BAL)  6.1  6   0   3   6   2  55  37%   26%
                6.1  9   0   3   4   4  41  Grade: B
O.Perez  (WSN)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  49  17%   16%
                4.0  3   0   3   3   0  56  Grade: C
-----------------------------------------------------
Dempster (CHC)  5.2  6   1   2   5   2  53  38%   25%
                2.1  7   1   3   1   8   9  Grade: F
Contreras(CHW)  6.1  7   0   2   4   2  53  14%   19%
                6.0  7   3   2   3   3  47  Grade: B+
-----------------------------------------------------
Ponson   (NYY)  5.2  8   0   2   3   3  43  30%   37%
                6.0  5   0   4   4   0  62  Grade: B-(over bonus)
Martinez (NYM)  5.2  6   0   1   5   2  54  25%   13%
                5.2  6   0   5   4   6  34  Grade: C+(under penalty)
-----------------------------------------------------
Myers    (PHI)  5.2  6   1   3   6   3  50  23%   41%
                2.0  5   1   4   2   5  24  Grade: D (under bonus)
Gabbard  (TEX)  4.2  5   0   3   4   2  48  19%   16%
                3.1  4   2   5   4   1  47  Grade: C+
-----------------------------------------------------
Washburn (SEA)  5.2  7   0   1   4   2  51  33%   29%
                7.2  7   1   1   2   2  60  Grade: B (over bonus)
Wolf     (SDP)  6.1  6   0   1   6   1  61  29%    6%
                3.1  8   0   5   2   2  33  Grade: F (under penalty)
-----------------------------------------------------
Correia  (SFG)  5.2  6   0   3   4   2  51  43%   23%
                5.0  4   0   2   4   1  57  Grade: B
Eveland  (OAK)  5.2  6   0   2   3   2  51  26%    9%
                7.1  5   0   2   3   1  66  Grade: B
----------------------------------------------------
Pineiro  (STL)  5.2  7   0   1   3   2  50  37%   24%
                7.2 10   1   2   2   7  33  Grade: F          
Meche    (KCR)  6.0  6   1   2   5   2  54  15%   15%
                7.0  6   1   1   2   1  62  Grade: B

Pitcher Boom Games: Avg GS: 44

Pitcher Bust Games: None

Hitter Boom Games: 13-54 3HR 6R 5RBI

Hitter Bust Games: 14-44 5R 4RBI

Game Winners: 4-5

Predict-a-Matic: June 27, 2008

Nine games today.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Owings   (ARI)  5.2  6   1   1   5   2  54  36%   27%
Nolasco  (FLA)  5.2  6   1   2   5   3  47   8%   26%
Jurrjens (ATL)  5.1  5   0   2   3   2  51  44%   21%
McGowan  (TOR)  6.1  5   0   2   5   2  59  24%    8%
Cabrera  (BAL)  6.1  6   0   3   6   2  55  37%   26%
O.Perez  (WSN)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  49  17%   16%
Dempster (CHC)  5.2  6   1   2   5   2  53  38%   25%
Contreras(CHW)  6.1  7   0   2   4   2  53  14%   19%
Ponson   (NYY)  5.2  8   0   2   3   3  43  30%   37%
Martinez (NYM)  5.2  6   0   1   5   2  54  25%   13%
Myers    (PHI)  5.2  6   1   3   6   3  50  23%   41%
Gabbard  (TEX)  4.2  5   0   3   4   2  48  19%   16%
Washburn (SEA)  5.2  7   0   1   4   2  51  33%   29%
Wolf     (SDP)  6.1  6   0   1   6   1  61  29%    6%
Correia  (SFG)  5.2  6   0   3   4   2  51  43%   23%
Eveland  (OAK)  5.2  6   0   2   3   2  51  26%    9%
Pineiro  (STL)  5.2  7   0   1   3   2  50  37%   24%
Meche    (KCR)  6.0  6   1   2   5   2  54  15%   15%

Pitcher Boom Games: McGowan, Pedro, Wolf, Meche

Pitcher Bust Games: None

Hitter Boom Games: C.Jackson, C.Young, H.Ramirez, Uggla, Millar, Scott, Edmonds, Soto, Konerko, Beltran, Wright, Burrell, Bradley, Hamilton, Greene, A.Gonzalez, Pujols, Aviles

Hitter Bust Games: Br.Jones, Blanco, Rios, Rolen, WM.Pena, R.Johnson, B.Anderson, M.Young, Bloomquist, Suzuki, E.Gonzalez, Bowker, Horwitz, R.Sweeney, Barton, LaRue, Callaspo, Gathright


Game Winners: Arizona, Toronto, Baltimore, White Sox, Mets, Texas, San Diego, Oakland, Kansas City

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 25, 2008

Not a bad day, in a lot of ways. The pitching predictions were pretty good if you eliminate the Detroit/St. Louis results, which were screwed up by a long rain delay in the 5th. The boom pitchers didn't boom, and I wouldn't say Sowers was a bust.

But the boom hitters boomed big time, and the bust hitters weren't so hot.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Johnson  (ARI)  5.2  6   1   2   6   2  54  41%   25%
                6.0  8   0   2   5   2  51  Grade: A
Wakefield(BOS)  5.1  6   1   2   4   3  46  10%   25%
                7.0  2   0   1   6   0  78  Grade: D (over penalty)
-----------------------------------------------------
Burres   (BAL)  5.2  6   1   3   5   2  52  35%   29%
                DNP
Lilly    (CHC)  5.2  5   1   2   6   2  56  18%   11%
                7.0  5   2   2   4   4  53  Grade: C+         
-----------------------------------------------------
Harang   (CIN)  6.2  7   1   2   5   3  52  30%   34%
                5.2  7   2   3   3   5  37  Grade: B (under bonus)
Halladay (TOR)  7.1  7   0   1   5   2  60  21%   13%
                6.2  9   1   4   7   5  41  Grade: C
-----------------------------------------------------
Santana  (LAA)  6.0  6   1   2   5   2  55  36%   28%
                6.0  4   1   5   8   4  51  Grade: B
Redding  (WAS)  5.2  6   0   2   4   2  52  19%   13%
                6.0  7   0   1   2   2  51  Grade: A
-----------------------------------------------------
Perkins  (MIN)  6.1  8   1   1   4   3  49  27%   40%
                5.0  6   0   2   2   3  43  Grade: B- 
Maddux   (SDP)  6.0  7   0   1   3   2  53  28%    9%
                5.2  7   1   2   3   6  34  Grade: C+(under penalty)
-----------------------------------------------------
Kendrick (PHI)  5.2  6   0   1   2   2  51  37%   24%
                8.0  4   0   1   4   0  77  Grade: C-(over bonus)
Smith    (OAK)  5.2  6   1   3   4   3  47  14%   20%
                5.2  7   0   2   3   4  42  Grade: A
-----------------------------------------------------
Batista  (SEA)  5.2  6   0   3   3   3  46  32%   32%
                2.2  5   3   5   3   4  30  Grade: D+(under bonus)
Maine    (NYM)  6.1  6   0   2   5   2  56  23%   10%
                6.0  5   0   2   3   2  55  Grade: A
-----------------------------------------------------
Zito     (SFG)  5.0  6   0   3   4   2  48  32%   33%
                6.2  4   0   0   4   1  68  Grade: B-(over bonus)
Sowers   (CLE)  5.0  7   1   1   2   3  42  15%   19%
                7.0  9   1   5   3   3  45  Grade: C
-----------------------------------------------------
Lohse    (STL)  5.2  7   1   1   3   3  46  27%   33%
                4.0 11   1   1   2   5  21  Grade: C (under bonus)
Galarraga(DET)  6.0  6   0   3   4   2  53  17%   16%
                4.2  8   3   0   3   4  37  Grade: D+

Pitcher Boom Games: Average GS: 47

Pitcher Bust Games: GS: 45

Hitter Boom Games: .354 2Dbl 1Tpl 3HR 13R 17RBI

Hitter Bust Games: .208 1HR 6R, 9RBI

Game Winners: 5-4

Predict-a-Matic: June 25, 2008

Messed around with the pitch count estimator to get a wider range of performances, though the medians and averages won't change much as a result. I'm also adding in the predicted game score, because I'm rounding numbers off here, and sometimes the rounding makes a difference. For instance, Randy Johnson is predicted at 5.8 innings. Is that 5 2/3, or 6 IP? I round to the closest, but the extra out makes a difference in his prediction.

I've also changed the name of the Stud% and Bomb%, as they are misleading. They are really the odds that the pitcher will do significantly better or worse than I predicted. Illustrative is Halladay's line. His "stud%" would only be 21%, which might lead you to believe he only has a 1 in 5 chance of having a great game. But that's misleading because that 60 game score is a studly performance. His median performance is studly! What the 21% really means is that the system thinks there is a 21% chance he will be significantly better than that median prediction.

I've also added Boom Games and Bust Games, instead of just the good hitters' games. I've done this for hitters and pitchers, though I'm still refining the pitcher system. Hitter booms and busts are limited to two per team. Good hitters usually boom and bad hitters usually bust, so no point listing all of them.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Johnson  (ARI)  5.2  6   1   2   6   2  54  41%   25%
Wakefield(BOS)  5.1  6   1   2   4   3  46  10%   25%
Burres   (BAL)  5.2  6   1   3   5   2  52  35%   29%
Lilly    (CHC)  5.2  5   1   2   6   2  56  18%   11%
Harang   (CIN)  6.2  7   1   2   5   3  52  30%   34%
Halladay (TOR)  7.1  7   0   1   5   2  60  21%   13%
Santana  (LAA)  6.0  6   1   2   5   2  55  36%   28%
Redding  (WAS)  5.2  6   0   2   4   2  52  19%   13%
Perkins  (MIN)  6.1  8   1   1   4   3  49  27%   40%
Maddux   (SDP)  6.0  7   0   1   3   2  53  28%    9%
Kendrick (PHI)  5.2  6   0   1   2   2  51  37%   24%
Smith    (OAK)  5.2  6   1   3   4   3  47  14%   20%
Batista  (SEA)  5.2  6   0   3   3   3  46  32%   32%
Maine    (NYM)  6.1  6   0   2   5   2  56  23%   10%
Zito     (SFG)  5.0  6   0   3   4   2  48  32%   33%
Sowers   (CLE)  5.0  7   1   1   2   3  42  15%   19%
Lohse    (STL)  5.2  7   1   1   3   3  46  27%   33%
Galarraga(DET)  6.0  6   0   3   4   2  53  17%   16%

Pitcher Boom Games: R.Johnson, Halladay, Maine, Lilly, Maddux


Pitcher Bust Games: Sowers


Hitter Boom Games: Tracy, C.Young, Lowell, Scott, Soto, A.Ramirez, V.Guerrero, Kotchman, Kouzmanoff, A.Gonzalez, Burrell, Howard, Cust, Beltran, Wright, Rowand, B.Molina, Ankiel, Sheffield, Thames


Hitter Bust Games: Moss, Lugo, Cintron, A.Jones, E.Patterson, Hopper, Bako, Kendrick, E.Aybar, W.Harris, C.Gomez, B.Harris, E.Gonzalez, Bloomquist, Ichiro, Barton, Kennedy


Game Winners: San Diego, Arizona, Cubs, Toronto, Washington, Philadelphia, Mets, Cleveland (tossup), Detroit

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 22, 2008

Pretty average on the pitching predictions, dragged down by Kyle Davies. I should have known that one was off. Others were just weird, like Dempster going 8 (surprise), giving up 10 hits (surprise) and then only 1 run on those 10 hits.

The hitting and W-L predictors were excellent today.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Cueto    (CIN)  5.0  6   1   3   5   4  16%   51%
5.0  4   0   0   7   1  Grade: B-
Pettitte (NYY)  6.0  6   0   2   5   2  18%   17%
6.0  4   0   2   4   0  Grade: A-
------------------------------------------------
Piniero  (STL)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  30%   19%
7.0  7   1   0   1   2  Grade: B-
Lester   (BOS)  5.1  5   1   3   4   2  13%   19%
7.1  9   0   1   3   2  Grade: C-
------------------------------------------------
Vazquez  (CHW)  6.2  6   1   2   8   2  39%   23%
6.0  5   2   5   4   4  Grade: C+
Dempster (CHC)  6.0  5   0   2   5   2  25%   11%
8.0 10   0   1   4   1  Grade: D+
------------------------------------------------
Byrd     (CLE)  6.0  7   1   1   3   2  34%   28%
7.0  7   1   0   1   4  Grade: B
Billing..(LAD)  6.0  5   0   2   8   2  22%   11%
5.0  8   0   1   4   3  Grade: C+
------------------------------------------------
Silva    (SEA)  6.0  7   0   1   3   3  35%   30%
4.0  9   3   0   1   4  Grade: C- (bomb bonus)
Hudson   (ATL)  6.2  7   0   1   4   2  24%    8%
7.0  4   0   4   2   0  Grade: B-
------------------------------------------------
Weaver   (LAA)  5.2  6   1   2   4   3  29%   35%
5.1  4   0   3   6   1  Grade: B-
Hamels   (PHI)  6.2  6   1   1   5   2  19%   12%
7.0  6   1   0   4   3  Grade: A
------------------------------------------------
Lincecum (SFG)  6.1  6   0   2   6   2  47%   23%
5.0  6   0   2   8   5  Grade: C+
Davies   (KCR)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  22%   16%
1.1  6   0   2   1   5  Grade: F (bomb penalty)
------------------------------------------------
Miller   (FLA)  5.0  5   0   3   4   2  39%   26%
4.0  7   0   2   1   4  Grade: C+
Duchsch..(OAK)  6.0  5   0   1   5   2  22%    8%
7.2  6   1   2   3   1  Grade: C+
------------------------------------------------
McGowan  (TOR)  6.0  6   0   2   5   2  42%   25%
5.0  9   0   1   2   3  Grade: B-
Snell    (PIT)  6.1  7   0   2   5   2  18%   16%
4.0  8   1   4   2   4  Grade: D
------------------------------------------------
Padilla  (TEX)  5.2  7   0   2   4   2  32%   32%
7.0  5   2   2   5   3  Grade: C+
Lannan   (WAS)  5.2  7   0   2   4   2  16%   15%
6.0  4   2   0   6   2  Grade: B
------------------------------------------------
Verlander(DET)  6.2  6   0   2   5   2  45%   24%
5.1  5   1   5  10   2  Grade: C+
Wolf     (SDP)  5.2  6   1   2   5   2  18%   14%
6.0  6   1   4  10   2  Grade: A

Big Games: 16-54 10R 14RBI, 3DBL, 5HR

Game Winners: 7-4

Predict-a-Matic: June 22, 2008

Looks like eleven games is about all I can manage in the 1 hour of time I've allotted for this activity.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Cueto    (CIN)  5.0  6   1   3   5   4  16%   51%
Pettitte (NYY)  6.0  6   0   2   5   2  18%   17%
Piniero  (STL)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  30%   19%
Lester   (BOS)  5.1  5   1   3   4   2  13%   19%
Vazquez  (CHW)  6.2  6   1   2   8   2  39%   23%
Dempster (CHC)  6.0  5   0   2   5   2  25%   11%
Byrd     (CLE)  6.0  7   1   1   3   2  34%   28%
Billing..(LAD)  6.0  5   0   2   8   2  22%   11%
Silva    (SEA)  6.0  7   0   1   3   3  35%   30%
Hudson   (ATL)  6.2  7   0   1   4   2  24%    8%
Weaver   (LAA)  5.2  6   1   2   4   3  29%   35%
Hamels   (PHI)  6.2  6   1   1   5   2  19%   12%
Lincecum (SFG)  6.1  6   0   2   6   2  47%   23%
Davies   (KCR)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  22%   16%
Miller   (FLA)  5.0  5   0   3   4   2  39%   26%
Duchsch..(OAK)  6.0  5   0   1   5   2  22%    8%
McGowan  (TOR)  6.0  6   0   2   5   2  42%   25%
Snell    (PIT)  6.1  7   0   2   5   2  18%   16%
Padilla  (TEX)  5.2  7   0   2   4   2  32%   32%
Lannan   (WAS)  5.2  7   0   2   4   2  16%   15%
Verlander(DET)  6.2  6   0   2   5   2  45%   24%
Wolf     (SDP)  5.2  6   1   2   5   2  18%   14%

Big Games: A-Rod, Giambi, Ludwick, Glaus, A.Ramirez, Kent, Loney, McCann, Teixeira, V.Guerrero, Burrell, Howard, B.Molina, Hamilton, Dukes

Game Winners: Yankees, Boston, Cubs, Dodgers, Atlanta, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Oakland, Pittsburgh (tossup), Washington, Detroit (tossup)

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 21, 2008

Pitching predictions were about average, though I can't do much better than the Wandy Rodriguez and Daniel Cabrera predictions. I'm only truly disappointed in the Pedro Martinez and Ubaldo Jimenez results.

Big game predictions were about normal for this system...didn't predict BA very well, but the homers, runs and rbi are considerably better than average. The win-loss predictor did nothing again.

Overall a B- for the day.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Contreras(CHW)  6.1  7   0   2   4   2  31%   33%
                3.1 10   3   2   1   9  Grade: D (bomb bonus)
Marquis  (CHC)  5.2  6   0   2   4   2  18%   18%
                7.0  8   2   1   4   5  Grade: C-
---------------------------------------------------
Sabathia (CLE)  7.0  7   0   1   6   2  44%   21%
                7.0  5   1   1  10   1  Grade: A-(stud bonus)
Park     (LAD)  6.0  7   2   3   5   4   3%   59%
                5.0  3   1   2   9   1  Grade: D (stud penalty)
--------------------------------------------------
Rodriguez(HOU)  5.2  6   0   2   5   2  37%   28%
                5.2  5   1   2   6   2  Grade: A
Jackson  (TBR)  5.1  6   1   3   4   3  17%   24%
                6.1  5   1   3   3   2  Grade: B+
-------------------------------------------------
Washburn (SEA)  5.2  7   1   2   3   3  27%   38%
                5.2  6   0   3   8   1  Grade: B-
Jurrjens (ATL)  5.2  6   0   2   4   2  27%    9%
                6.0  3   0   2   4   0  Grade: B
-------------------------------------------------
Owings   (ARI)  5.2  6   0   1   4   2  38%   26%
                6.1  5   0   1   3   3  Grade: B
Blackburn(MIN)  6.2  8   0   1   4   3  12%   21%
                7.0  3   0   0   3   1  Grade: C-(stud penalty)
-------------------------------------------------
Saunders (LAA)  5.2  7   1   2   4   3  27%   39%
                7.0  5   1   2   3   2  Grade: B-
Myers    (PHI)  7.0  7   1   2   6   3  10%   26%
                7.2  6   3   2   7   4  Grade: B
-------------------------------------------------
Correia  (SFG)  7.0  7   1   2   5   3  32%   32%
                5.0  6   0   4   2   3  Grade: C
Meche    (KCR)  6.1  7   0   2   4   2  18%   16%
                5.2  3   0   2   7   1  Grade: B-(stud penalty)
-------------------------------------------------
Cabrera  (BAL)  6.0  6   1   3   5   3  25%   44%
                6.0  7   1   3   8   3  Grade: A
McClung  (MIL)  6.1  5   0   2   6   2  24%   12%
                6.2  3   1   5   6   2  Grade: A-
-------------------------------------------------
Nolasco  (FLA)  5.2  6   1   2   4   3  29%   38%
                7.0  7   0   1   3   3  Grade: B
Eveland  (OAK)  5.1  5   0   3   5   2  22%   11%
                6.1  8   0   2   4   2  Grade: B
-------------------------------------------------
Litsch   (TOR)  5.2  7   1   1   3   2  36%   29%
                6.0  5   3   1   2   6  Grade: C+(bomb bonus)
Maholm   (PIT)  6.1  7   0   1   4   2  14%   17%
                7.0  7   0   3   1   3  Grade: B+
-------------------------------------------------
Martinez (NYM)  5.2  6   0   1   6   2  49%   19%
                4.1  9       1   5   6  Grade: D (bomb penalty)
Jimenez  (COL)  5.1  5   0   3   5   2  20%   17%
                8.0  2   0   4   2   1  Grade: D (stud penalty)

Big Games: 19-73, 10R, 13RBI, 5HR

Game Winners: 6-5

Predict-a-Matic: June 21, 2008

Eleven of the 15 games today, avoiding the mystery pitchers in CIN @ NYY, STL @ BOS, and TEX @ WAS, and just plain not interested in DET @ SD.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Contreras(CHW)  6.1  7   0   2   4   2  31%   33%
Marquis  (CHC)  5.2  6   0   2   4   2  18%   18%
Sabathia (CLE)  7.0  7   0   1   6   2  44%   21%
Park     (LAD)  6.0  7   2   3   5   4   3%   59%
Rodriguez(HOU)  5.2  6   0   2   5   2  37%   28%
Jackson  (TBR)  5.1  6   1   3   4   3  17%   24%
Washburn (SEA)  5.2  7   1   2   3   3  27%   38%
Jurrjens (ATL)  5.2  6   0   2   4   2  27%    9%
Owings   (ARI)  5.2  6   0   1   4   2  38%   26%
Blackburn(MIN)  6.2  8   0   1   4   3  12%   21%
Saunders (LAA)  5.2  7   1   2   4   3  27%   39%
Myers    (PHI)  7.0  7   1   2   6   3  10%   26%
Correia  (SFG)  7.0  7   1   2   5   3  32%   32%
Meche    (KCR)  6.1  7   0   2   4   2  18%   16%
Cabrera  (BAL)  6.0  6   1   3   5   3  25%   44%
McClung  (MIL)  6.1  5   0   2   6   2  24%   12%
Nolasco  (FLA)  5.2  6   1   2   4   3  29%   38%
Eveland  (OAK)  5.1  5   0   3   5   2  22%   11%
Litsch   (TOR)  5.2  7   1   1   3   2  36%   29%
Maholm   (PIT)  6.1  7   0   1   4   2  14%   17%
Martinez (NYM)  5.2  6   0   1   6   2  49%   19%
Jimenez  (COL)  5.1  5   0   3   5   2  20%   17%

Big Games: Dye, Soto, Sizemore, Francisco, Garko, C.Lee, Berkman, C.Jones, Teixeira, C.Jackson, Tracy, Kotchman, V.Guerrero, Burrell, Scott, Branyan, Fielder, Cust, Chavez, McLouth, Wright

Game Winners: Cubs (tossup), Cleveland, Houston (tossup), Atlanta, Arizona (tossup), Philadelphia, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Mets

Predict-a-Matic Results: June 16, 2008

Pitching predictions were all over the place, but overall not too bad. Anytime half of the predictions are B or better, I feel pretty good. Big game predictor wasn't much help, though the BA is respectable and the R and RBI figures are high. W-L predictor was useless.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER Stud% Bomb% 
Jurrjens (ATL)  5.0  5   0   2   5   2  46%   22%
                7.2  8   0   2   7   0  Grade: D+ (stud bonus)
Jimenez  (COL)  5.0  5   0   3   4   2  15%   18%
                5.0  4   0   5   7   2  Grade: A
--------------------------------------------------
Colon    (BOS)  5.2  6   1   2   5   3  27%   37%
                4.0  6   3   2   4   4  Grade: B- (bomb bonus)
Hamels   (PHI)  6.1  6   1   2   6   2  18%   13%
                7.0  7   2   2   5   2  Grade: B+
--------------------------------------------------
Verlander(DET)  6.1  7   0   2   6   2  40%   25%
                6.0  5   1   1   7   2  Grade: A-
Lincecum (SFG)  6.1  6   0   2   6   2  19%   16%
                7.0  5   2   3   3   4  Grade: C+
--------------------------------------------------
Miller   (FLA)  5.1  6   0   2   3   2  36%   28%
                7.0  6   0   2   2   1  Grade: B+ (stud bonus)
Silva    (SEA)  5.2  8   1   1   3   3  13%   24%
                4.2  5   0   1   4   3  Grade: B
--------------------------------------------------
Pelfrey  (NYM)  5.2  8   0   3   3   3  31%   38%
                6.0  6   0   1   0   3  Grade: A-
Weaver   (LAA)  5.2  6   0   2   3   2  18%   12%
                6.1  8   2   1   5   6  Grade: D+ (bomb penalty)
      

Big Games: .261, 3R, 5RBI

Game Winners: 2-3