Never thought I'd wonder if Jeter is loafing (or just not concentrating)...until tonight's game at the Metrodome.
With the Yanks leading 4-2 in the 6th, two outs and a man on first and third, Craig Monroe came to the plate against Andy Pettitte. He hit a chopper over Pettitte's head, to the left of second, but out of Jeter's reach, which isn't really saying much. I like Jeter, but he doesn't have any range. Cano comes out of nowhere, crosses to the SS side of the bag, and fields the grounder. Cano tosses it to Jeter and Jeter is nowhere near the bag. He flails at it with his foot, and the runner is safe. Run scores.
Cano's toss wasn't beautiful, but it was adequate. The problem is that Jeter was out of position. He wasn't standing at 2b, where he should have been. When he saw that he couldn't reach the chopper, he gave up on it. In his defense, he probably did not expect Cano to be closer to a ball on the SS-side of the bag, when the shortstop himself couldn't get it. Still, it is Little League 101 that you run to the base if you can't field it. Jeter gave up on it, and then just sort of watched Cano field it. He was surprised by the throw, and when he got it, realized he couldn't find the bag.
Later, with the score tied, Jeter hit a sharp single to right field. He slowed a little bit coming around first, and then watching the play in RF, decided to head for second. He was gunned down at the bag. The broadcast team said "he was thinking double all the way" but that simply is not true. He let up around first, and then decided to kick it into gear. That let up cost him the double, because it was a pretty close play.
Maybe he wasn't loafing. Maybe he simply wasn't concentrating. They were mental errors too. Apart from slowing up around first, it was a mental error to try for second at all. The Twins have Michael Cuddyer in right field, with a cannon. He had 19 assists last year, which led the major leagues.
Jeter must not be alone. You don't get 19 assists unless people try to run on you. That makes me wonder if Cuddyer is good at baiting the runners into seeking the extra base. Maybe that "bait" is what Jeter saw as he slowed up at first; then he took the bait and tried for second. He was, after all, looking at right field the entire time. He saw something that indicated he should run, and it wasn't a bobble.
Showing posts with label Yankees. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Yankees. Show all posts
Monday, June 02, 2008
Saturday, July 21, 2007
More on Mussina
Delving into baseballreference.com's game details, I looked for all games in Mussina's career in which he earned a Bill James game score of 35 or less. My goal was inning pitch counts. I figured it was unlikely Mussina threw more than 46 pitches in an inning during a game in which he had a pretty good game score. It was also a means of narrowing my search.
Counting last night's games, Mussina has had 71 games with a game score <= 35. I was a little surprised by that number. That's nearly 15% of his starts. In future, I'll have to compare that to another Hall of Fame or near Hall of Fame pitcher to see if that is an unusually high percentage.
If you are going by how many times his game score was <=35 in a season, his worst years were '96, '00 and '05. Those weren't very bad years overall...he finished in the Top 5 Cy Young voting in '96. In fact, prior to this year, Mussina has not had an awful season. At his worst, he is league average, but usually well above.
So far, 2007 is his worst season statistically. And this year he is likely to exceed his previous high of 7 games with a game score of 35 or less, since he already has 5 in 16 starts.
I looked at all 71 of those games, searching for innings in which his pitch count was 35 or higher. Counting last night, there were only 12 such games. (Note, five of the 71 games had no pitch count data, but the pitch count estimator did not indicate that he would have been anywhere near 35 pitches in those five games). Here are those games, in chronological order:
So the top of the 3rd inning last night actually appears to be Mussina's longest inning by pitch count in his 17 year career, topping another tiring inning on August 3, 2005 by two pitches. Hats off to Joe Magrane.
Interestingly, in what was probably his worst outing ever on April 21, 1999 against the Devil Rays (mentioned in my earlier post, and earning his worst game score = 0!), he threw no more than 35 pitches in an inning. In fact, Mussina has five career games with a game score of 10 or lower and only two made the list for high pitch count innings with 35 and 36. High pitch count innings may not correlate well with low game scores, though I imagine they correlate better with low game scores than high ones.
Counting last night's games, Mussina has had 71 games with a game score <= 35. I was a little surprised by that number. That's nearly 15% of his starts. In future, I'll have to compare that to another Hall of Fame or near Hall of Fame pitcher to see if that is an unusually high percentage.
If you are going by how many times his game score was <=35 in a season, his worst years were '96, '00 and '05. Those weren't very bad years overall...he finished in the Top 5 Cy Young voting in '96. In fact, prior to this year, Mussina has not had an awful season. At his worst, he is league average, but usually well above.
So far, 2007 is his worst season statistically. And this year he is likely to exceed his previous high of 7 games with a game score of 35 or less, since he already has 5 in 16 starts.
I looked at all 71 of those games, searching for innings in which his pitch count was 35 or higher. Counting last night, there were only 12 such games. (Note, five of the 71 games had no pitch count data, but the pitch count estimator did not indicate that he would have been anywhere near 35 pitches in those five games). Here are those games, in chronological order:
Date Pitches Inn Opp
5-21-93 39 Top 3rd MIL
6-18-95 38 Bot 1st DET
4-21-99 35 Bot 4th TBD
4-21-01 35 Top 4th BOS
6-5-01 39 Top 2nd BAL
7-31-02 36 Bot 2nd TEX
8-6-02 38 Top 3rd KCR
7-1-03 35 Bot 3rd BAL
5-29-05 35 Top 1st BOS
8-3-05 44 Bot 5th CLE
9-24-06 35 Bot 4th TBD
7-20-07 46 Top 3rd TBD
So the top of the 3rd inning last night actually appears to be Mussina's longest inning by pitch count in his 17 year career, topping another tiring inning on August 3, 2005 by two pitches. Hats off to Joe Magrane.
Interestingly, in what was probably his worst outing ever on April 21, 1999 against the Devil Rays (mentioned in my earlier post, and earning his worst game score = 0!), he threw no more than 35 pitches in an inning. In fact, Mussina has five career games with a game score of 10 or lower and only two made the list for high pitch count innings with 35 and 36. High pitch count innings may not correlate well with low game scores, though I imagine they correlate better with low game scores than high ones.
Friday, July 20, 2007
Mussina's Pitch Count
You hear a lot about pitch counts and whether (or how) they injure arms. Mike Mussina only threw 93 pitches against the Devil Rays tonight. That was in 4 2/3 innings, because Mussina was way off his game.
But most interesting is how many pitches he threw in top of the third. It was a bad inning for him...four runs scored. The damage could have been worse. He went to a full count on 5 hitters in that inning alone, and threw 46 pitches. 46 pitches in one inning?
Joe Magrane said he thought that was probably a record for Mussina. That's probably verifiable if you dig through RetroSheet data, or if you have a subscription to the Play Index at Baseball Reference.com.
Since I don't have time to pour through 15 years of Mussina games on Retrosheet, and have not yet subscribed to the PI at Baseball Reference, I'll speculate.
One common, and fairly accurate, way of estimating pitch counts is the following formula: BFP*3.3 + 1.5*SO + 2.2*(HBP+BB). Mussina faced 10 hitters in the 3rd inning, with one K and three walks. That's about 41 pitches. That means Mussina threw 4 more pitches than we would expect. Not a striking figure.
Has he ever had another inning where he faced 10 hitters and walked at least three? When viewed that way, it seems more likely. I don't know the answer, but Mussina gave up 10 runs in 3 2/3 innings in 1999, facing 24 batters in that short span. He threw 35 pitches in the bottom of the 4th of that game. Against who? The Devil Rays! That included a 9 pitch at bat by Wade Boggs.
That leads me to believe that his 46 pitch inning might not conclusively be the worst he's had in terms of pitch counts. I bet it is a close call.
By the way, Justin Upton hit a monster home run in that inning, off a horrible middle-in pitch from Mussina. In the post-game interview, Upton said it was the longest ball he had ever hit, and he turned it around so fast, he didn't even feel it hit the bat.
But most interesting is how many pitches he threw in top of the third. It was a bad inning for him...four runs scored. The damage could have been worse. He went to a full count on 5 hitters in that inning alone, and threw 46 pitches. 46 pitches in one inning?
Joe Magrane said he thought that was probably a record for Mussina. That's probably verifiable if you dig through RetroSheet data, or if you have a subscription to the Play Index at Baseball Reference.com.
Since I don't have time to pour through 15 years of Mussina games on Retrosheet, and have not yet subscribed to the PI at Baseball Reference, I'll speculate.
One common, and fairly accurate, way of estimating pitch counts is the following formula: BFP*3.3 + 1.5*SO + 2.2*(HBP+BB). Mussina faced 10 hitters in the 3rd inning, with one K and three walks. That's about 41 pitches. That means Mussina threw 4 more pitches than we would expect. Not a striking figure.
Has he ever had another inning where he faced 10 hitters and walked at least three? When viewed that way, it seems more likely. I don't know the answer, but Mussina gave up 10 runs in 3 2/3 innings in 1999, facing 24 batters in that short span. He threw 35 pitches in the bottom of the 4th of that game. Against who? The Devil Rays! That included a 9 pitch at bat by Wade Boggs.
That leads me to believe that his 46 pitch inning might not conclusively be the worst he's had in terms of pitch counts. I bet it is a close call.
By the way, Justin Upton hit a monster home run in that inning, off a horrible middle-in pitch from Mussina. In the post-game interview, Upton said it was the longest ball he had ever hit, and he turned it around so fast, he didn't even feel it hit the bat.
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