From mid-April to May, there was talk of the Mets releasing Carlos Delgado. He was hitting .213, with 7 HR, 20 RBI and a paltry 670 OPS. At age 36, in his 15th major league year, he was considered finished.
Baseball's tough. We're talking about a guy who with 87 RBI last year, had his worst RBI year since 1995 when he only got 91 at bats. Beginning in 1996 when he became a regular, he has averaged .283/.380/.555 for a 935 OPS, with 35 HR, 112 RBI and 92 Runs. Three Silver Slugger Awards, two All-Star teams (should have been more) and three top 10 finishes in the MVP race.
I hate to see a guy like that decline, but I also hate to see people talk about his outright release. Especially for a such an nice guy who has won awards for his charitable work through MLB charities.
So tonight I was thrilled to see that batting line: 3-for-5, 2 Runs, 1 Double, 2 HR and 9 RBI. I hope this foretells a resurgence.
Showing posts with label Records. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Records. Show all posts
Friday, June 27, 2008
Monday, May 05, 2008
Rose's 3,000th Hit
Today is the 30th anniversary of Pete Rose's 3,000 hit, on the way to becoming baseball's all-time hit leader.
They showed some video of the hit tonight on ESPN. He hit it off Steve Rogers of the Expos, a name pretty much forgotten today, but one of the very good pitchers of the 1970s and early 1980s. Rogers made the All-Star team four times, was runner up for ROY in 1973, and finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting three different times -- including a second place finish to Steve Carlton in 1982.
It was a road game, so no celebration: There wasn't a lot of fanfare/Nor were there many fans there/It was Montreal/After all.
Anyway, whereas now they would stop the game and celebrate, even in a road park, there was virtually nothing to mark the event. No teammates congratulating him. No opponents congratulating him. This was no Mark McGwire moment with Sosa hugging him (which I personally found disgusting).
But most interesting of all, Tony Perez, Rose's teammate on the Big Red Machine, was playing first base for Montreal. Rose trotted down to first and stood there. And so did Perez. Stand there. Ready for the next pitch. No congratulations. Just standing there. After a couple of minutes of both of them just standing there, Rose reached over and patted Perez' chest, and gave him the half-hug, with Perez sort of returning the half-hug...call it a quarter-hug.
I think the lack of general celebration is a product of the times. I think the lack of Perez' celebration is something deeper, like maybe Rose was always an asshole? Maybe? Not exactly far-fetched.
They showed some video of the hit tonight on ESPN. He hit it off Steve Rogers of the Expos, a name pretty much forgotten today, but one of the very good pitchers of the 1970s and early 1980s. Rogers made the All-Star team four times, was runner up for ROY in 1973, and finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting three different times -- including a second place finish to Steve Carlton in 1982.
It was a road game, so no celebration: There wasn't a lot of fanfare/Nor were there many fans there/It was Montreal/After all.
Anyway, whereas now they would stop the game and celebrate, even in a road park, there was virtually nothing to mark the event. No teammates congratulating him. No opponents congratulating him. This was no Mark McGwire moment with Sosa hugging him (which I personally found disgusting).
But most interesting of all, Tony Perez, Rose's teammate on the Big Red Machine, was playing first base for Montreal. Rose trotted down to first and stood there. And so did Perez. Stand there. Ready for the next pitch. No congratulations. Just standing there. After a couple of minutes of both of them just standing there, Rose reached over and patted Perez' chest, and gave him the half-hug, with Perez sort of returning the half-hug...call it a quarter-hug.
I think the lack of general celebration is a product of the times. I think the lack of Perez' celebration is something deeper, like maybe Rose was always an asshole? Maybe? Not exactly far-fetched.
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
Matt Holliday's RBI Title
I'm a Matt Holliday fan. I'm not a Ryan Howard fan.
Yet, I don't understand how Holliday gets the RBI title by playing in the wild card play-in game. It isn't a playoff game, but it isn't really a regular season game either.
Holliday did not do anything to deserve an extra game. Howard is actually punished by the Phils winning the NL East title. If only the Phils had lost, there would have been a play-in game against the Mets, and we'd be able to compare Holliday's RBI total to Howard's on an apples-to-apples basis.
If Holliday had overtaken a player on a non-playoff team, perhaps we could call this extra game "earned" by Holliday's contribution to Rockies wins all season. But when his competition for the title is already in the playoffs, it makes no sense to give Holliday the title.
Yet, I don't understand how Holliday gets the RBI title by playing in the wild card play-in game. It isn't a playoff game, but it isn't really a regular season game either.
Holliday did not do anything to deserve an extra game. Howard is actually punished by the Phils winning the NL East title. If only the Phils had lost, there would have been a play-in game against the Mets, and we'd be able to compare Holliday's RBI total to Howard's on an apples-to-apples basis.
If Holliday had overtaken a player on a non-playoff team, perhaps we could call this extra game "earned" by Holliday's contribution to Rockies wins all season. But when his competition for the title is already in the playoffs, it makes no sense to give Holliday the title.
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Four Steals In A Game Seems Awesome
...but it isn't, really.
Rafael Furcal stole four bases tonight off Miguel Montero (two off of Livan Hernandez and two off of Doug Slaten). Great fantasy day, and I thought it must be very rare. But, it isn't as impressive as I would have thought in the annals of MLB history.
Nineteen times someone has stolen more than four bases in a game. And it isn't just the old timers. Eleven of those 19 have been since 1990. Four players stole 6 bases in a game: Eddie Collins twice (in 1912, eleven days apart), Otis Nixon (1991) and Eric Young (1996). Young must have hit his noggin on a few head-first slides, which would explain why he utters a string of verbalizations on Baseball Tonight that I cannot make heads or tails of.
The most recent 5 or more performance was Ryan Freel's 5 SB game in 2005. If you are curious, Rickey Henderson did it only once. You don't need to steal five a game when you steal one almost every game.
The strangest name on the list? Tony Gwynn. Yeah, he wasn't always fat.
Rafael Furcal stole four bases tonight off Miguel Montero (two off of Livan Hernandez and two off of Doug Slaten). Great fantasy day, and I thought it must be very rare. But, it isn't as impressive as I would have thought in the annals of MLB history.
Nineteen times someone has stolen more than four bases in a game. And it isn't just the old timers. Eleven of those 19 have been since 1990. Four players stole 6 bases in a game: Eddie Collins twice (in 1912, eleven days apart), Otis Nixon (1991) and Eric Young (1996). Young must have hit his noggin on a few head-first slides, which would explain why he utters a string of verbalizations on Baseball Tonight that I cannot make heads or tails of.
The most recent 5 or more performance was Ryan Freel's 5 SB game in 2005. If you are curious, Rickey Henderson did it only once. You don't need to steal five a game when you steal one almost every game.
The strangest name on the list? Tony Gwynn. Yeah, he wasn't always fat.
Friday, September 14, 2007
Griffey as Home Run King?
I was thinking the other day how nice it would have been if Griffey was the all-time home run leader instead of Bonds. Not that I hate Bonds. I just like Griffey so much more. So smooth in the outfield. Such a beautiful swing.
Griff stands at 593 homers. I know it is a big part of the accomplishment to stay healthy. Bottom line, Griffey didn't do it. Still, I thought it would be fun to try and project what his home runs would have been without the injuries.
Griffey's principal injury years were 94-95 with Seattle, and 01-04, and 06 with Cincinnati. To project the number of games he should have played in the injury years, I'll average the healthy year prior to the injury year, and the healthy year after the injury year, and assume the same rate of plate appearances and homers as during the injury year.
That's 83 more homers. He would only need to hit 87 more to pass Bonds, if Bonds retires at the end of the year. And Griffey is five years younger than Bonds.
Alas, wishin' don't make it so. Something to keep in mind when you see that A-Rod is "on pace" to break the all-time record.
Weird stat: Griffey has grounded into more double plays than Bonds, despite 3 fewer seasons and all the injuries. That's the advantage of Bonds' high walk rate.
Weirder stat: A-Rod has grounded into only 3 fewer double plays than Griffey, and more than Bonds, despite being only 31.
Griff stands at 593 homers. I know it is a big part of the accomplishment to stay healthy. Bottom line, Griffey didn't do it. Still, I thought it would be fun to try and project what his home runs would have been without the injuries.
Griffey's principal injury years were 94-95 with Seattle, and 01-04, and 06 with Cincinnati. To project the number of games he should have played in the injury years, I'll average the healthy year prior to the injury year, and the healthy year after the injury year, and assume the same rate of plate appearances and homers as during the injury year.
Year Actual HR Revised HR
89 16 16
90 22 22
91 22 22
92 27 27
93 45 45
94 40 52
95 17 35
96 49 49
97 56 56
98 56 56
99 48 48
00 40 40
01 22 27
02 8 16
03 13 34
04 20 33
05 35 35
06 27 33
07 30 30
---- ----
593 676
That's 83 more homers. He would only need to hit 87 more to pass Bonds, if Bonds retires at the end of the year. And Griffey is five years younger than Bonds.
Alas, wishin' don't make it so. Something to keep in mind when you see that A-Rod is "on pace" to break the all-time record.
Weird stat: Griffey has grounded into more double plays than Bonds, despite 3 fewer seasons and all the injuries. That's the advantage of Bonds' high walk rate.
Weirder stat: A-Rod has grounded into only 3 fewer double plays than Griffey, and more than Bonds, despite being only 31.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Jenks' Streak
There was some interesting information in the San Francisco Chronicle this morning about Jenks' streak of 41 consecutively retired batters. He is now tied with Jim Barr.
Barr was a pitcher for the Giants in the '70s and early 80s. By most accounts he was pretty average, though he had some very good seasons...1972 being one of them. He finished in the top 10 in ERA three times during his career.
Barr is actually rooting for Jenks. Barr is a coach at Sacramento State, and says the attention from the streak can be used as a teaching tool. Barr says "I've always thought walks were just....they're uncalled for. I turn to my pitchers and go 'See you can do it. You don't have to walk anybody.'"
Barr achieved the streak as a starter. He said when it happened, he didn't even know it was a record. He just knew he had pitched two really good games in a row...both complete game shutouts. In the first he had to contend with the likes of Stargell, Clemente and Hebner. Stargell had an early hit off of him just before the streak started. In the second game he had to deal with Torre, Simmons and Brock.
Without the media coverage to jump on every statistical record imaginable, there was no hype. Cardinals' broadcaster Jack Buck is the one that told him it was a record in a post-game interview.
The Chronicle asked if Barr thought it was easier for a reliever to get the streak than a starter. Barr was generous. He said he thought starters had an advantage because they can get into a rhythm. Also, he said Jenks is used in more high pressure situations, making it tougher for him. That's nice, because he could have said "Hell yeah it's easier to get three guys out at a time over a couple of weeks. They never see your stuff twice. You never get tired."
But he didn't say that. Gracious.
Barr was a pitcher for the Giants in the '70s and early 80s. By most accounts he was pretty average, though he had some very good seasons...1972 being one of them. He finished in the top 10 in ERA three times during his career.
Barr is actually rooting for Jenks. Barr is a coach at Sacramento State, and says the attention from the streak can be used as a teaching tool. Barr says "I've always thought walks were just....they're uncalled for. I turn to my pitchers and go 'See you can do it. You don't have to walk anybody.'"
Barr achieved the streak as a starter. He said when it happened, he didn't even know it was a record. He just knew he had pitched two really good games in a row...both complete game shutouts. In the first he had to contend with the likes of Stargell, Clemente and Hebner. Stargell had an early hit off of him just before the streak started. In the second game he had to deal with Torre, Simmons and Brock.
Without the media coverage to jump on every statistical record imaginable, there was no hype. Cardinals' broadcaster Jack Buck is the one that told him it was a record in a post-game interview.
The Chronicle asked if Barr thought it was easier for a reliever to get the streak than a starter. Barr was generous. He said he thought starters had an advantage because they can get into a rhythm. Also, he said Jenks is used in more high pressure situations, making it tougher for him. That's nice, because he could have said "Hell yeah it's easier to get three guys out at a time over a couple of weeks. They never see your stuff twice. You never get tired."
But he didn't say that. Gracious.
Sunday, August 12, 2007
Can Webb Overtake Hershiser?
With 33 consecutive scoreless innings under his belt, Webb is inviting comparison's to Orel Hershiser's streak of 59 innings.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. To realize the magnitude of Hershiser's accomplishment, consider that Webb is barely past halfway to the record.
But for fun, let's compare the first four games of Webb's streak to the first four games of Hershiser's. Webb's streak actually began in the last inning of a game. Hershiser's streak actually began in the 6th inning of a game in which he pitched the distance. The data below for Webb and Hershiser includes the first four games they started after the streak began in those partial games.
PC is pitch count. GS is the average pitching game score using Bill James' methodology. RS is run support for the pitcher. And sOPS+ is the relative OPS+ plus for the opposing team, taking into account the team's home/road splits.
That's pretty interesting. Hershiser is more dominant, having thrown 4 complete games and achieving a higher average game score as a result. But 1988 was a different era. While complete games were waning, they were still more prevalent at that time. In 1988, nearly 14% of games were complete games. In 2007 so far, only 2% are complete games. Can't really ding Webb for that.
What's amazing is that they have the exact same number of hits, walks and strikeouts, albeit in a different number of IP. Hershiser was more efficient, throwing 6 fewer pitches a game. Webb also has gotten better run support, though 8 of those runs came in one game.
I'm not sure if run support helps the streak or hurts it. Lots of run support might relax the pitcher. On the other hand, is relaxation good for a scoreless streak? I think probably not. Hershiser was the bulldog, and I think he thrived in those competitive scenarios.
The most interesting figure is the sOPS+ figure of the opponents. Hershiser's opponents were terrible at the plate, producing at only 85% of league average. Webb's are also poor at 94%, but not nearly as bad.
So although Hershiser's stats are slightly more dominant, some of the statistical diffference can be attributed to (1) the era when there were more complete games and (2) weaker competition.
To see how that bodes for Webb in his next three games, let's see what Hershiser did in his last two games of his streak.
He got tougher on baserunners, and maintained a high average game score (which isn't hurt by a 10 inning complete game). His competition was a little better...about where Webb's has been. But Hershiser's pitch count per game rose by 10 pitches a game and his strikeout rate plummeted. Perhaps that's the quality of the competition kicking in. Interestingly, his run support continued to be horrible.
Webb's going to need at least three games to reach Hershiser's record. If the rotation holds up, he'll be at Atlanta, home against Milwaukee and at San Diego. Their average sOPS+ (as of now) is 93, but that's a deceiving number brought down by San Diego's 76 at home. Atlanta has a 100 at home and Milwaukee a 104 on the road.
To the extent run support is a factor, Webb might have an advantage. Atlanta, Milwaukee and San Diego (especially) have some quality starters that may keep the games close.
But until he gets past Atlanta and Milwaukee, it will be hard to convince me that something is better than Orel.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. To realize the magnitude of Hershiser's accomplishment, consider that Webb is barely past halfway to the record.
But for fun, let's compare the first four games of Webb's streak to the first four games of Hershiser's. Webb's streak actually began in the last inning of a game. Hershiser's streak actually began in the 6th inning of a game in which he pitched the distance. The data below for Webb and Hershiser includes the first four games they started after the streak began in those partial games.
PC is pitch count. GS is the average pitching game score using Bill James' methodology. RS is run support for the pitcher. And sOPS+ is the relative OPS+ plus for the opposing team, taking into account the team's home/road splits.
IP H BB K PC GS RS sOPS+
Webb 32 21 6 29 440 77 15 94
Hershiser 36 21 6 29 417 82 9 85
That's pretty interesting. Hershiser is more dominant, having thrown 4 complete games and achieving a higher average game score as a result. But 1988 was a different era. While complete games were waning, they were still more prevalent at that time. In 1988, nearly 14% of games were complete games. In 2007 so far, only 2% are complete games. Can't really ding Webb for that.
What's amazing is that they have the exact same number of hits, walks and strikeouts, albeit in a different number of IP. Hershiser was more efficient, throwing 6 fewer pitches a game. Webb also has gotten better run support, though 8 of those runs came in one game.
I'm not sure if run support helps the streak or hurts it. Lots of run support might relax the pitcher. On the other hand, is relaxation good for a scoreless streak? I think probably not. Hershiser was the bulldog, and I think he thrived in those competitive scenarios.
The most interesting figure is the sOPS+ figure of the opponents. Hershiser's opponents were terrible at the plate, producing at only 85% of league average. Webb's are also poor at 94%, but not nearly as bad.
So although Hershiser's stats are slightly more dominant, some of the statistical diffference can be attributed to (1) the era when there were more complete games and (2) weaker competition.
To see how that bodes for Webb in his next three games, let's see what Hershiser did in his last two games of his streak.
IP H BB K PC GS RS sOPS+
Hershiser 19 9 3 5 228 82 3 94
He got tougher on baserunners, and maintained a high average game score (which isn't hurt by a 10 inning complete game). His competition was a little better...about where Webb's has been. But Hershiser's pitch count per game rose by 10 pitches a game and his strikeout rate plummeted. Perhaps that's the quality of the competition kicking in. Interestingly, his run support continued to be horrible.
Webb's going to need at least three games to reach Hershiser's record. If the rotation holds up, he'll be at Atlanta, home against Milwaukee and at San Diego. Their average sOPS+ (as of now) is 93, but that's a deceiving number brought down by San Diego's 76 at home. Atlanta has a 100 at home and Milwaukee a 104 on the road.
To the extent run support is a factor, Webb might have an advantage. Atlanta, Milwaukee and San Diego (especially) have some quality starters that may keep the games close.
But until he gets past Atlanta and Milwaukee, it will be hard to convince me that something is better than Orel.
Saturday, August 11, 2007
My Trip to AT&T in San Francisco
Just back from the Giants/Pirates game. Here are some notes:1. Rajai Davis is the most exciting player on the field. He's fast, he had a single, double and triple, and is already a fan favorite.
2. Whatever Matt Morris had in St. Louis, he does not have it now. He threw more balls than strikes. Even worse, he looked miserable. Maybe pitching for Pittsburgh and returning to your former team is depressing, but he ought to be showing a little more life on the mound. This was a horrible trade for Pittsburgh. They must know something about Davis that we don't.
3. Omar Vizquel can't hit anymore, but he executed a beautiful first-pitch squeeze down the third base line to score Davis after his triple.
4. Ray Durham uses a different bat, depending on which side he swings from. With a righty on the mound, he approached the plate with a black bat. When Jim Tracy replaced the pitcher with a lefty, Durham went into the dugout and traded the black bat for a blonde one.
5. The screen behind home plate at AT&T park is only about 15 feet high, meaning fans behind the plate have a better chance of catching foul balls.
6. Some of the seats at AT&T are actually closer to the batter than the pitcher is.
7. Although I missed the record-setting homer by 3 games, Barry went deep in his second at bat. I have a blurry picture, because the lady next to me bumped me while cheering.
Still, seeing #758 is better than seeing none at all. If I present my ticket at a Giants Dugout store tomorrow after 10:00 a.m., I get a commemorative pin with #758 on it.
8. Xavier Nady reached first on a Ray Durham error, making him the go-ahead run in the top of the 8th. Jim Tracy replaced him with a pinch runner. Good strategy, right? Eh, he replaced him with Ian Snell. Snell is certainly a more capable baserunner, but he's also the #2 guy in the pitching rotation and is a young prospect. I realize even losing teams still play to win, but is it really worth the injury risk to one of your young starters? It isn't like Pittsburgh's system is so full of talent it can afford to lose one. Plus, McLouth doubled to send Snell to third, meaning the runner would have reached third no matter who he was.
9. If you are a fantasy owner and have Brad Hennessey, check the news tomorrow. He only threw a dozen or so pitches, but when the inning was over and he was walking towards the dugout, he was shaking his right arm and holding it in an awkward position. He looked uncomfortable.
10. Other than Bonds and Davis (and Jason Bay if he turns it around), this was a collection of the weakest hitters and pitchers you can have in a major league game. Two of the better hitters on the rosters, Randy Winn and Xavier Nady, did not start.
11. A draft beer (domestic) is $7. A Guinness is $9.
12. There's a mini-AT&T park in left field, complete with mini-Jumbotron. Kids under a certain height go in and swing at underhand pitches, and run the bases if they make contact. It's pretty cool.
13. Sum total of kayakers: two,
and I think they might have been Giants security personnel.
Friday, August 10, 2007
Bonds Winks
Who was Bonds winking to after he hit the home run? After he scored, Barry turned back towards home plate, and I saw Nationals' catcher Brian Schneider applauding in the background. Bonds gave his Andre Agassi-like salute to the crowd, then turned towards home plate, pointed, and winked. I saw it on t.v. live, and I've watched the replay three times. He was not pointing into the dugout, or the crowd.
That's strange. Schneider has never been Barry's teammate. I'm not saying this happened, but the thought flashed through my mind that Schneider could have tipped the pitch. Of course, the pitch was so fat Barry didn't need a tip.
The other strange thing -- in contrast to what I remember about McGwire's record setting home run -- was that when Barry's son hugged him at the plate, Barry did not hug back. He stood with his arms over his head, and then turned back towards the dugout. It was like his son was hugging a tree. McGwire -- who I never liked -- was genuinely caught up in the moment with his boy. Barry did have warm hugs for his daughter, mom and wife, though. Maybe he was too distracted by the event.
That's strange. Schneider has never been Barry's teammate. I'm not saying this happened, but the thought flashed through my mind that Schneider could have tipped the pitch. Of course, the pitch was so fat Barry didn't need a tip.
The other strange thing -- in contrast to what I remember about McGwire's record setting home run -- was that when Barry's son hugged him at the plate, Barry did not hug back. He stood with his arms over his head, and then turned back towards the dugout. It was like his son was hugging a tree. McGwire -- who I never liked -- was genuinely caught up in the moment with his boy. Barry did have warm hugs for his daughter, mom and wife, though. Maybe he was too distracted by the event.
Wednesday, August 08, 2007
Hank Aaron
Aaron's scoreboard video message was nice, though a little too scripted, which made the presentation seem awkward. But the words were nice, and respectful, as you would expect from Aaron.
It was nice to see Barry get an incredible reception from the home crowd, but Aaron's message really dignified the event.
I'm sad to see Aaron's record fall. I strongly recommend his biography, "I Had A Hammer."
It was nice to see Barry get an incredible reception from the home crowd, but Aaron's message really dignified the event.
I'm sad to see Aaron's record fall. I strongly recommend his biography, "I Had A Hammer."
Monday, August 06, 2007
Glavine Update
My prediction was wrong and Glavine got 300 before Barry gets his record. That's one prediction I don't mind getting wrong.
Only five lefties in history!
Only five lefties in history!
Saturday, August 04, 2007
What would you do with the 756th?
Though I live in Jacksonville, Florida, I happen to have a ticket to the August 10th game in San Francisco. I had a business trip scheduled, and wanted to see the park. It never occurred to me that Bonds would still be chasing the record.
There is NO chance I'll catch his home run ball. I'm sitting a few rows up from the home dugout. If I'm lucky I'll get a pop up.
There's no question in my mind, though, that if the ball came into my possession, it would belong to the Hall of Fame. I don't much like Barry Bonds, but that's not the point. Not everything has to fall prey to shameless commercialism.
There is NO chance I'll catch his home run ball. I'm sitting a few rows up from the home dugout. If I'm lucky I'll get a pop up.
There's no question in my mind, though, that if the ball came into my possession, it would belong to the Hall of Fame. I don't much like Barry Bonds, but that's not the point. Not everything has to fall prey to shameless commercialism.
Wednesday, August 01, 2007
500 HR, 300 Wins or 755 HR?
Which is the toughest? I don't mean which is the toughest to achieve in a career. That's obvious.
I mean, if you are Rodriguez at 499, Glavine at 299 or Bonds at 754, how hard is it to get that one extra notch?
I'd say Rodriguez has it easiest. He's the youngest. He's going to get #500 and may eventually get 755. It's just a matter of time for him. He ought to take the same approach at the plate as always. It's a great accomplishment, but it will pale in comparison to other records he will eventually achieve.
Bonds has more media scrutiny, by far, and he's also the one of this group that is least likely to have fan support for his effort. That's some serious pressure. That pressure increases in San Francisco, because he wants to hit it for the home fans. But, like Alex, Barry's going to hit at least one home run before its over. He is going to break the record. So it's tougher for him than Rodriguez.
But I'd argue Glavine has it the toughest. Of the three, his skills have declined the most. He's hanging on as a 4th starter. In addition, he has less control over the situation. He can pitch great and get no run support. His defense can let him down, etc. It is likely he'll get the win, but it is possible that he strings together a bunch of no decisions or losses. The risk of injury is also higher for a pitcher.
I predict they happen in that order: Rodriguez to 500; Bonds to 755; Glavine to 300.
I mean, if you are Rodriguez at 499, Glavine at 299 or Bonds at 754, how hard is it to get that one extra notch?
I'd say Rodriguez has it easiest. He's the youngest. He's going to get #500 and may eventually get 755. It's just a matter of time for him. He ought to take the same approach at the plate as always. It's a great accomplishment, but it will pale in comparison to other records he will eventually achieve.
Bonds has more media scrutiny, by far, and he's also the one of this group that is least likely to have fan support for his effort. That's some serious pressure. That pressure increases in San Francisco, because he wants to hit it for the home fans. But, like Alex, Barry's going to hit at least one home run before its over. He is going to break the record. So it's tougher for him than Rodriguez.
But I'd argue Glavine has it the toughest. Of the three, his skills have declined the most. He's hanging on as a 4th starter. In addition, he has less control over the situation. He can pitch great and get no run support. His defense can let him down, etc. It is likely he'll get the win, but it is possible that he strings together a bunch of no decisions or losses. The risk of injury is also higher for a pitcher.
I predict they happen in that order: Rodriguez to 500; Bonds to 755; Glavine to 300.
Sunday, July 29, 2007
Negative Game Scores
Since 1957, there have been only 108 games in which the starting pitcher has earned a negative game score*. Five have occurred this year: Simontacchi (-2), Shields (-3), Feierabend (-4), C.Lewis (-6) and Jon Garland (-11).
The first thing that strikes me here is that in 50 years, there are 108 such games (about 2 a year), but this year we've already got 5, and we are not even 2/3 of the way through the season. The second thing is how bad that Garland score is. Tied for 7th worst in the last 50 years.
But we're going to have another one. Jason Jennings gave up 11 earned runs in the first inning of today's game against the Padres. Although not "officially" computed by Baseballreference.com yet, I've got him with a game score of -11, tying Garland for the worst this year.
That's 6, and counting. We're on pace for 9 of these things, which would represent almost 9% of the below zero game scores since 1957.
*The Bill James Game Score is really a toy to determine how dominant a starting pitcher is on a game-by-game basis. Every pitcher starts the game with 50 points. You add 1 point for each out recorded, and 2 points for each inning (or fractional inning) completed after the 4th. You also add 1 point for each strikeout. Then, subtract 1 point for each walk, 2 points for each hit and unearned run allowed and 4 points for each earned run allowed.
The first thing that strikes me here is that in 50 years, there are 108 such games (about 2 a year), but this year we've already got 5, and we are not even 2/3 of the way through the season. The second thing is how bad that Garland score is. Tied for 7th worst in the last 50 years.
But we're going to have another one. Jason Jennings gave up 11 earned runs in the first inning of today's game against the Padres. Although not "officially" computed by Baseballreference.com yet, I've got him with a game score of -11, tying Garland for the worst this year.
That's 6, and counting. We're on pace for 9 of these things, which would represent almost 9% of the below zero game scores since 1957.
*The Bill James Game Score is really a toy to determine how dominant a starting pitcher is on a game-by-game basis. Every pitcher starts the game with 50 points. You add 1 point for each out recorded, and 2 points for each inning (or fractional inning) completed after the 4th. You also add 1 point for each strikeout. Then, subtract 1 point for each walk, 2 points for each hit and unearned run allowed and 4 points for each earned run allowed.
Saturday, July 28, 2007
Selig and Bonds
Who cares?
I should stop there, but I won't. When I say "Who cares?" I'm referring to Selig's attendance at Giants' games, not Barry's quest. Leaving aside whether you like Barry or not, and whether you want him to pass Hammerin' Hank: (a) it's a big deal and (b) it's going to happen.
Does it matter in the slightest whether the commissioner is there? This isn't the Kennesaw Mountain Landis era. Selig is not a celebrity. I don't think the fans pay attention to ANYTHING he says. Do you really think of Selig as the guy who maintains the integrity of the game?
Maybe Selig, if he were there, would get a 20 second soundbite...and then, gone, lost among all the other soundbites and camera flashes.
Selig's presence, or absence, has absolutely no bearing on the event. It doesn't diminish what Bonds is doing. It doesn't tell us anything more about steroids (if you still care at this point).
I just hope (with all the energy I can muster) that Bonds does not hug someone on the opposing team when he does it, a la' McGwire and Sosa. That made me sick.
I should stop there, but I won't. When I say "Who cares?" I'm referring to Selig's attendance at Giants' games, not Barry's quest. Leaving aside whether you like Barry or not, and whether you want him to pass Hammerin' Hank: (a) it's a big deal and (b) it's going to happen.
Does it matter in the slightest whether the commissioner is there? This isn't the Kennesaw Mountain Landis era. Selig is not a celebrity. I don't think the fans pay attention to ANYTHING he says. Do you really think of Selig as the guy who maintains the integrity of the game?
Maybe Selig, if he were there, would get a 20 second soundbite...and then, gone, lost among all the other soundbites and camera flashes.
Selig's presence, or absence, has absolutely no bearing on the event. It doesn't diminish what Bonds is doing. It doesn't tell us anything more about steroids (if you still care at this point).
I just hope (with all the energy I can muster) that Bonds does not hug someone on the opposing team when he does it, a la' McGwire and Sosa. That made me sick.
Wednesday, July 06, 2005
Useless Records (Congratulations Mr. Biggio)
On June 29, Craig Biggio set the all-time major league record for being hit by a pitch, passing Don Baylor. Are we that starved for baseball news? Here's what Biggio said about the record.
I remember Baylor getting hit a lot, and it was because he crowded the plate. He would not give in to the pitcher. Biggio isn't nearly as close to the plate. But Biggio will not move. He will not move even as the ball is coming at him. He sticks out that elbow pad and takes the hit. The Hall of Fame has asked for his arm pad. More than any other player, he violates the baseball rule requiring the batter to at least attempt to avoid the pitch.
Oddly, for the HBP that set the record, Biggio got tagged pretty good.
Remember, Biggio has more to "get done." Hughie Jennings is only 19 ouches away. If you can't get enough of Biggio's pursuit of the record, I've got just the place for you: PlunkBiggio.
I almost played for him [Baylor] one year. It was nice to be able to get it done here [in Colorado].
Get it done? Biggio has more career HBP than career home runs.
I remember Baylor getting hit a lot, and it was because he crowded the plate. He would not give in to the pitcher. Biggio isn't nearly as close to the plate. But Biggio will not move. He will not move even as the ball is coming at him. He sticks out that elbow pad and takes the hit. The Hall of Fame has asked for his arm pad. More than any other player, he violates the baseball rule requiring the batter to at least attempt to avoid the pitch.
Oddly, for the HBP that set the record, Biggio got tagged pretty good.
Remember, Biggio has more to "get done." Hughie Jennings is only 19 ouches away. If you can't get enough of Biggio's pursuit of the record, I've got just the place for you: PlunkBiggio.
Frank Thomas
Going into action tonight, Frank Thomas has 17 hits...and 10 home runs. That's a home run every 1.70 times he gets a hit.
I researched which players might have home run rates that high as a proportion of hits. I set a modest minimum of 10 hits to qualify. So far, Thomas has the lead. Here's the top 10 list without Thomas:
An interesting list for a couple of reasons. First, McGwire has three of the 10 spots, but the 1997 season is his National League total only. It would not be on the list if blended with his season at Oakland (though it would still be a high ratio). Second, Bonds' record-breaking season makes the list. Third, Babe Ruth is on the list, but it isn't a real season for Ruth. And fourth, there's a surprising player on this list: pitcher Don Drysdale.
I didn't like the way the list came out, because of Harshman, Medina, Dick Williams and Staton. So I changed the criteria to a minimum of 10 home runs. Here's how that turned out.
*Again, the 1997 McGwire season is National League only.
Frank Thomas would be #1 on this list, but he's got a long ways to go to have the most impressive H/HR ratio.
I researched which players might have home run rates that high as a proportion of hits. I set a modest minimum of 10 hits to qualify. So far, Thomas has the lead. Here's the top 10 list without Thomas:
| Year | Player | Hits | HR | Ratio |
| 1997 | McGwire* | 44 | 24 | 1.84 |
| 2001 | McGwire | 56 | 29 | 1.93 |
| 1956 | Harshman | 12 | 6 | 2.00 |
| 2001 | Bonds | 156 | 73 | 2.14 |
| 1958 | Drysdale! | 15 | 7 | 2.14 |
| 1935 | Ruth | 13 | 6 | 2.17 |
| 1988 | Medina | 13 | 6 | 2.17 |
| 1998 | McGwire | 152 | 70 | 2.17 |
| 1964 | D.Williams | 11 | 5 | 2.20 |
| 1993 | Staton | 11 | 5 | 2.20 |
An interesting list for a couple of reasons. First, McGwire has three of the 10 spots, but the 1997 season is his National League total only. It would not be on the list if blended with his season at Oakland (though it would still be a high ratio). Second, Bonds' record-breaking season makes the list. Third, Babe Ruth is on the list, but it isn't a real season for Ruth. And fourth, there's a surprising player on this list: pitcher Don Drysdale.
I didn't like the way the list came out, because of Harshman, Medina, Dick Williams and Staton. So I changed the criteria to a minimum of 10 home runs. Here's how that turned out.
| Year | Player | Hits | HR | Ratio |
| 1997 | McGwire* | 44 | 24 | 1.84 |
| 2001 | McGwire | 56 | 29 | 1.93 |
| 2001 | Bonds | 156 | 73 | 2.14 |
| 1998 | McGwire | 152 | 70 | 2.17 |
| 1995 | McGwire | 87 | 39 | 2.23 |
| 1999 | McGwire | 145 | 65 | 2.23 |
| 1955 | Ed Robinson | 36 | 16 | 2.25 |
| 2000 | McGwire | 72 | 32 | 2.25 |
| 1984 | Gamble | 23 | 10 | 2.30 |
| 1988 | Phelps | 24 | 10 | 2.40 |
*Again, the 1997 McGwire season is National League only.
Frank Thomas would be #1 on this list, but he's got a long ways to go to have the most impressive H/HR ratio.
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