Sunday, August 31, 2008

Book Review: We Would Have Played For Nothing

"We Would Have Played For Nothing" is based on a concept originated by Lawrence Ritter in "The Glory of Their Times," one of the most well-respected baseball books out there.  The concept is to let the players tell the stories in their own words, with the author getting out of the way, except as an editor.  The Glory of Their Times contained interviews with some serious old-timers, of varying degrees of notoriety.  The beauty of the concept was getting these players down on paper, before they were too old to carry forward the oral history of the majors.  The downside of that book was that players would sometimes ramble, and while the lesser known players could offer an interesting perspective, they often did not. 

This time the author is former MLB commissioner Fay Vincent, and he focuses on starts of the 50s and 60s.  There are no interviews here with backup utility infielders.  All but one of the interviews is with a true "star;"  Bill Rigney was a long-time manager, and was fairly well known at the time, but was not much of a player.  Another of the interviews is with a lesser star, Ralph Branca, famous for giving up the "shot heard round the world."  Certainly a very good pitcher.

The rest of the guys are mostly household names.  Frank and Brooks Robinson.  Whitey Ford, Harmon Killebrew, Duke Snider, Robin Roberts.  Even Lew Burdette and Carl Erskine, who don't fall into the household categories, were genuinely great pitchers in their day.

Perhaps because the players are more well-known, and because the time period is closer to us (though still primarily before I was born), "We Would Have Played For Nothing" is a fun read.  Vincent's touch is not as light as Ritter's, and I think that's a good thing.  Vincent has written a short (one page) introduction to the players, in case you don't know who they are.  The rest comes from the players themselves.

It is apparent that they are responding to particular questions, and not just rambling on about whatever strikes their fancy.  It is also clear that there was a lot of cleanup, because the player comments have a lot of data.  I don't believe this many players could have absolute recall of game scores from 50 years ago, and there's a ton of that peppered in their comments. 

I raced through the book...it is very accessible.  If I had to complain about anything it would be the organization within each player's comments.  I'm not sure if the players' comments are presented in the same order in which they were given on videotape tot he author, but if so, the ordering of the questions (not printed in the book) seems a little disjointed.  It isn't obvious at the beginning.  There's no surprise a player would ramble.  But you start to see the pattern by the end of the book.  There's always a section near the end about who the player thought the best players were, and the last question is clearly along the lines of "How would you like to be remembered?"

The most refreshing thing about the book is how humble and appreciative these players are, even though they were vastly underpaid.  There's a lot in here about contract negotiations and their salaries, which means there's a lot in here about how stingy the owners were.  Brooks Robinson tells of his GM saying he couldn't pay Brooks' requested salary because that's what Mickey Mantle made when the GM worked for the Yankees.  There was no attempt to value the player.  They just made him feel guilty for the request; like you know you aren't as good as Mantle, so stop pretending.  In another situation with Robinson, they made him feel guilty for requesting $500 a year.  This was in the 60s...$500 wasn't that much money.

Or Frank Robinson being told by the Reds GM he was going to cut his salary.  The GM said "I hear your reputation, you don't always hustle." When Robinson asked where he got his information, the GM basically said that's just what I've heard, so I'm cutting your salary.  Just an excuse to avoid paying Robinson, who had just turned in a season where he hit .296 with 33 HR and 113 RBI...and this was in the 60s, with suppressed offensive levels.  The players didn't have agents.  (Robinson, by the way, is the only player entry that shows a hint of bitterness).

Anyone interested in baseball and baseball history would enjoy this book.  If you aren't from that era, you'll learn a lot about baseball in the 50s and 60s, and in an entertaining way.  I'll leave you with an example:

Frank Robinson tells a story about batting against Don Drysdale, which he said was like "wrestling a horse or a mule, or being in a fight.  That's how tired I would be after the ballgame."  One time, with Robinson at the plate, the Dodger manager signaled to Drysdale that he should put Robinson on base.  Instead of an intentional walk, or pitching around him, Drysdale drilled him in the ribs.  When asked later, Drysdale said "Why waste three pitches?"

Book Review: Ed Barrow

Ed Barrow was one of the first general managers, and he built the Yankees' dynasties in the 30s and 40s. Hence the title "Ed Barrow: The Bulldog Who Built the Yankees' First Dynasty." The book is written by Daniel Levitt, the co-author of Paths to Glory, which won a SABR award for research.

And that's where the primary value of "Ed Barrow" comes in: its research. It reminds me, in some ways, of a political biography, although Barrow never held office and probably could not have. There's a feeling here that Levitt read every in-house memo with the clubs and read Barrow's diary and private correspondence. You get the kind of details that could only come from sources like those. And because Barrow was league president (in the minors) and a GM, you get a lot of financial information about turn of the century baseball, like the chart showing team profits, dividends and retained earnings from 1920-1924.

So in that regard, it is a valuable book. The kind you are glad was written. But as a read, it can be a little dry. The first half of the book is dedicated to his pre-Yankee years in baseball, which consisted mostly of various managing, ownership and administrative roles in minor leagues. The Minors were different back then, and the book provides some insights into how the Minors interacted with the Majors, and how much different it was then, than now. However, the detail in this part of the book is almost overwhelming, and perhaps too voluminous to remain interesting for 100+ pages.

The most interesting portions revolve around attempts to form new Minor leagues, and in some cases, new Major leagues, like the Federal League and even the American League. Barrow had a role in many of these through his relationship with the baseball intelligentsia.

Barrow then gets tapped to manage the Red Sox, at a time when Babe Ruth was on the mound. The book begins to pick up the pace about this point, although the focus remains on Barrow's relationship with management much more than his relationship with players. There are few anecdotes about the players here; even one as colorful as Ruth. Barrow's relationship with Harry Frazee, the owner of the Sox who eventually sells Ruth to the Yankees, starts the transition to the more familiar aspects of baseball history.

The Yankees portion of the book does not show off as much research, though I trust it was done. Perhaps that's because the names here (Ruth, Gehrig, Dimaggio) are more familiar and the second half is less dry. I have to compliment the author, though, because the book avoids the biographer's trap of talking too much about the players and the games, and not enough about the subject.

Not only is there a nice recap of those early Yankee teams, you learn a lot about baseball's transactional rules (e.g., waivers and the 40 man roster) and how those developed. (Hint: it's like watching the owners making sausage). The trouble is, for an incredibly important baseball pioneer, I didn't find Barrow himself all that interesting. Probably his most interesting quirk is his love for boxing, and his penchant for confrontation.

All-in-all, this book adds valuable information to the baseball archives, and allows the reader to learn a number of things about the minor leagues, their relationship with the majors, and the behind-the-scenes decision making that the major league clubs engaged in regarding the players. I would not call it a "must read" or a "light read." It is not for the casual fan. However, if you are a member of SABR and enjoy their various publications, you will get a lot out of this book.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

New Joe Maddon Fan

I now love Joe Maddon, the Tampa Bay Rays coach.

In the 6th inning of tonight's game, Maddon got mad about a call at first base. Upton singled and overran first. In the umpire's judgment, he was moving to second, so when he was tagged, he was out.

In Upton and Maddon's opinion, he just overran first base. In the big leagues, if you overrun first base, you simply have to return quickly to first. You can't be tagged out in that situation. I saw the play, and I cannot conceive of how the umpire thought he made a move to second. He turned away from second to return to the bag. He didn't even twitch towards second.

Maddon got mad, and Maddon got thrown out.

In the postgame, Maddon was seriously pissed off, nearly an hour later, and didn't hide it. He said the call was "unconscionable, it can't happen, it's wrong, it's totally wrong" and "to make something up and then have it validated by the crew chief, really got me upset." He said he could understand missed calls on close plays, and missed balls and strikes, but nothing like this, particularly in a pennant race. He said "I'm not going to say anything more about it. I can't be any clearer about how I feel."

He'll probably get fined, but so what? Way to speak your mind Joe!

And he said something funny at the end. He is fighting a cold and a reporter asked him if he would have to go on the DL. He said he caught something on the road trip that he can't get rid of and then he said "and who knows, I may have given it to the umpires tonight."

***

By the way, I don't think Upton was hustling on that play either. It's no excuse for the call, but since he has been benched twice for not hustling, and then got thrown out at second last night during a home run trot (chased down from behind by Mark Teixeira), you'd think he'd be busting ass down to first.

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Player Height, Pt. Two

Now for the American League. To keep things on par with the National League height analysis, I'll stick with the starting lineups from Sunday, August 10. And, of course, we have an extra player in the mix at DH.

Team      Ht(In)
----      ------
Yankees   74.11 (72.67 with Giambi, IRod and Cabrera)
Rays      73.89 (73.66 with Navarro and Longoria)
ChiSox    73.78 
A's       73.78 
Red Sox   73.67 (73.33 with Youkilis)
Rangers   73.33 (73.56 with Catalanotto)
Twins     73.00 (73.33 with Gomez)
Royals    73.00 (72.78 with DeJesus)
Indians   72.67
Mariners  72.67
Angels    72.55
Orioles   72.44 (72.11 with Hernandez and Scott)
Jays      72.22 
Tigers    71.89 (72.11 with Guillen)

The Yankees started an odd lineup on Sunday, with Molina, Sexton and Christian playing instead of IRod, Giambi and Cabrera. That's 13" difference, primarily because Sexton is the tallest hitter in baseball at 6'8". So even though they top this list, they are really middle of the pack. The Tigers are the shortest no matter how you slice it, although the normal starting lineup ties with the Orioles.

Needless to say, David Eckstein is the shortest hitter in baseball at 5'6".

Here they are sorted by starting lineup height (assuming a "normal" starting lineup), and the number of wins.
Team      Wins
----      ------
ChiSox     67 
A's        55 
Rays       72 
Rangers    61 
Red Sox    70 
Twins      67 
Royals     54 
Yankees    64 
Indians    54
Mariners   46
Angels     75
Jays       62 
Tigers     58 
Orioles    57 

Height does not correlate nearly as well in the American League, at only .30.

However, wins are a factor of both hitting and pitching, and these height analyses only focus on the hitters. So how would height correlate with team performance if I gave them all an average pitching staff and calculated their pythagorean wins?

Actually, worse. The correlation b/w the starting lineup height and actual wins for MLB is 0.485 (between the NL and AL correlation figures). The correlation b/w the starting lineup height and wins if you only take offense into account is only 0.408. Still fairly correlative, but not much to go on. :)

Adam Dunn Projection

I thought it might be interesting to try and project Adam Dunn's post-August output, considering that he has moved to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

For these numbers, I have more or less ignored the fact that he played for Cincinnati for the first 10 days of August, and for ease of calculation, have pretended he was traded July 31.

I used a very simple projection model, weighting his last three years (2005-2007) in Cincinnati, comparing his pre-August to post-August performances, taking into account his abnormally low BABIP this year, and making some park adjustments from Cincinnati to Arizona. For park factor purposes, I treated him as I would any other player moving from park to park.

There's a caveat here, and that is Adam Dunn has always hit poorly in Arizona. His career OPS in all parks is 900, but in Arizona it is 735, and that's despite Arizona being at least as good a hitters park as Cincinnati. The reason I have not used that as a benchmark is that it represents only 150 plate appearances. The randomness in that 735 number is likely pretty high...perhaps as much as 100 points of OPS, most of it found in his slugging percentage, and most of that in his home run rate.

So here's the projection:

PA   AB   R   H  2b  3b  HR  RBI  BB  SO GDP  Avg/ OBP/ SLG
203 155  27  36   5   0  12   36  47  47   1 .234/.407/.501

You might want to discount that a little for the problems he has had in Arizona. What the heck, here's a rough estimate, taking into account his struggles in Arizona:

PA   AB   R   H  2b  3b  HR  RBI  BB  SO GDP  Avg/ OBP/ SLG
203 155  25  35   6   0  10   33  44  44   1 .226/.389/.458
At the end of the season, we'll see how close the actual August/September stats are, with allowances for small sample sizes for those two months of 2008.

Sunday, August 10, 2008

Player Height

Watching the St. Louis Cardinals, and their lineup of apparent midgets, made me wonder which teams' starting lineups today were the shortest (excluding the pitcher).

We'll start with the National League to find out if this is interesting. Don't want to calculate the entire MLB if it's a boring question.

Since I used today's starting lineups, I added a couple of parentheticals if the regular starters would have made a significant difference.
Team      Ht(In)
----      ------
Braves    73.38 (73.88 with Johnson)
Marlins   73.50
Rockies   73.50
Brewers   73.38 
Cardinals 73.25 (1 of 3 teams with two < 5'10" starters)
Cubs      73.25 
Reds      73.13 (73.75 with Votto and Bako)
D-Backs   72.75 (73.25 with Hudson)
Mets      72.75
Dodgers   72.63
Phillies  72.50
Astros    72.25 (71.875 with Wiggington)
Giants    72.12 (2nd of 3 teams with 2 < 5'10" starters)
Pirates   72.00
Padres    70.63 (71.12 with Bard)
Nationals 70.63 (3rd of 3 teams with 2 < 5'10" starters)

Well I was wrong about the Cards. Glaus and Ludwick saved them, and Adam Kennedy and Brendan Ryan are not as short as they appear. David Eckstein, where are you?

The tallest lineup today was the Marlins, but if Kelly Johnson had played 2b instead of Omar Infante, the Braves would have the tallest lineup. If Votto and Bako had played for the Reds, instead of Andy Phillips and Hanigan, the Reds would have been second.

The Padres and Nationals tied for the lowest average height, but the Padres started Carlin instead of Bard at catcher. If Bard had played, the Nationals (which started a normal lineup), would have been the shortest.

Adam Dunn and Corey Hart are the tallest (6'6"). Ronnie Belliard is the shortest (5'8").

The presence of the Padres and Nationals at the bottom made me wonder if there is a correlation with the number of wins. Here they are sorted by starting lineup height (assuming a "normal" starting lineup), and the number of wins.
Team      Wins
----      ------
Braves    55
Reds      52
Marlins   61
Rockies   53
Brewers   66 
Cardinals 65
Cubs      70 
D-Backs   59
Mets      62
Dodgers   58
Phillies  63
Giants    49
Pirates   53
Astros    57
Padres    45
Nationals 44

Visually height doesn't seem connected to wins, but the correlation is .59, which is a pretty strong positive correlation. The only thing that keeps it from being higher is the presence of the Braves and Reds at the top. If you take them out of the equation, the correlation jumps to .78. Of course, you can't do that.

Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Japanese Ballplayers

One of the advantages of having a Japanese ballplayer on your team is the ability to sell advertisements to the Japanese. The Japanese are so crazy for coverage of American ballplayers, advertisers get exposed to the entire island of Japan.

Behind the Rays hitters, on the backstop, was an advertisement for Dandy House, at http://www.dandy-house.co.jp/. All the text on the backstop, other than the Web address, was in Japanese, so it was not possible for me to know what kind of business it is.

Through separate research I've learned it is a "men's day spa." I guess it makes sense that it's called Dandy House. Going to the Web site won't help you, as it is also entirely in Japanese. Most of the language is in picture format, so it can't be automatically translated, but here are some phrases I got from the text translation:

Triple burning body method
Self-depreciation dehairing (design dehairing)
Face slim

The triple burning body method, probably not legal in the U.S., is illustrated solely in Flash format.  You'll just have to see it yourself.  Suffice to say it is a weight loss method.

The "dehairing" is obvious, though not very eloquently stated.  Why call a place "Dandy" and then use a term like "dehairing"?  Anyway, it looks painful to me. Like they'll pull your whole face off:



How about face slimming? Here's some info about it:
The cog and the cheek which do not have the wasteful surplus fat are the important point in order to show to the sharp feeling which will be the whole face clear.Because of that the Hollywood star where “the face” is the commodity in order to maintain the sharp face line, has regularly used healing the face and the [se] from several dozen years ago.Please try looking at the mirror again.Haven't the sag of the cheek, the solid seeing and the double cog of the face started? As for the one which becomes matter of concern please try this healing which by all means, the dandy house in Japan introduces for the first time from Hollywood.

Saturday, August 02, 2008

Predict-a-Matic Results: August 2, 2008

Weaver gave up 4 home runs. Wouldn't have taken the odds on that one. And how 'bout that game score for Mark Buehrle. A 4!. Eveland later matched him, fulfilling my prophecy.

Jake Peavy did not throw a no-hitter today, but did pitch a pretty good ballgame.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Weaver (LAA)    5.4  6   1   2   4   3  47  24   23
                5.0  8   4   1   5   6  31
Mussina (NYY)   5.5  7   -   1   3   2  50  24   20
                7.0  2   0   2   5   1  70
---------------------------------------------------
Maholm (PIT)    5.8  7   1   2   5   3  47  19   28
                6.0  8   0   2   2   5  36
Lilly (CHC)     6.0  6   1   2   5   2  55  34   13
                6.3  6   0   3   5   1  60
---------------------------------------------------
Buehrle (CHW)   6.6  7   0   1   3   2  55  36   17
                4.3 14   2   0   1   8   4
Davies (KCR)    4.7  6   1   3   3   3  42  11   35
                5.3  5   2   1   2   3  47
---------------------------------------------------
Sabathia (MIL)  7.0  7   -   1   6   2  60  50    9
                8.3  6   0   1   9   2  72
Morton (ATL)    5.5  5   1   2   4   2  54  33   15
                7.0  4   1   1   4   2  64
---------------------------------------------------
Rogers (DET)    5.4  6   1   2   4   3  45  18   31
                3.3  6   0   4   8   7  24
Sonnanstine(TBR)6.0  7   1   1   4   3  49  24   23
                6.0  7   0   1   6   2  55
---------------------------------------------------
Santana (NYM)   6.2  6   1   2   6   2  57  41   14
                6.3  3   0   2   3   1  64
Oswalt (HOU)    6.2  7   1   2   4   3  50  31   19
                6.0  6   1   3   7   4  48
---------------------------------------------------
Eveland (OAK)   4.9  5   0   4   3   2  47  12   31
                2.0  8   2   2   2   9   4
Lester (BOS)    5.7  6   -   3   5   2  52  32   14
                7.0  7   1   1   5   2  59
---------------------------------------------------
Fogg (CIN)      5.6  6   0   2   4   2  52  30   20
                5.3  6   0   3   5   3  44
Bergmann (WSN)  5.5  6   1   1   5   2  54  29   15
                6.0  6   1   3   2   5  37
---------------------------------------------------
Byrd (CLE)      6.1  8   -   1   2   2  50  23   23
                7.0  6   0   2   1   1  60
Slowey (MIN)    5.9  6   1   1   5   2  55  35   16
                6.0  6   2   0   7   5  47
---------------------------------------------------
de la Rosa (COL)              (insufficient data) 
Nolasco (FLA)   6.0  6   1   1   6   2  57  42   12
                8.0  4   2   0  13   3  75
---------------------------------------------------
Burnett (TOR)   6.4  6   1   2   7   3  55  38   14
                5.7  6   0   2   4   4  45
Feldman (TEX)   6.0  7   1   3   3   3  45  14   34
                5.3  5   0   3   4   3  47
---------------------------------------------------
Blanton (PHI)   6.7  7   -   1   3   2  55  35   17
                7.0  4   1   2   5   1  68
Looper (STL)    5.5  6   1   1   4   3  47  21   22
                7.0  3   2   2   4   2  65
---------------------------------------------------
Guthrie (BAL)   6.6  7   0   1   3   2  55  36   14
                9.0  4   0   1   2   1  76
Hernandez (SEA) 6.3  6   0   2   6   2  57  44   13
                5.0  8   0   2   6   2  47
---------------------------------------------------
Zito (SFG)      5.8  6   0   2   4   2  52  26   17
                8.0  3   0   4   5   0  77
Peavy (SDP)     6.8  5   0   1   8   1  68  72    3
                7.0  5   0   0   7   1  70
---------------------------------------------------
Petit (ARI)     5.3  6   1   2   4   2  50  26   17
                5.0  5   2   1   1   3  45
Kuroda (LAD)    5.9  6   -   1   5   2  55  35   16
                7.3  4   1   0   6   1  72
Pitcher Boom Games: Avg GS: 64 Guthrie (76), Felix (47), Nolasco (75), Sabathia (72), Santana (64), Peavy (70), Burnett (45)

Pitcher Bust Games: Avg GS: 31 Davies (47), Rogers (24), Eveland (4), Feldman (47)

Hitter Boom Games: Avg GS: 48 Thome (y), Griffey (n), Dunn (n), Uggla (n), Ross (44), C.Pena (n), ARod (y), Berkman (n), Burrell (n), Howard (y), McLouth (n), Aramis (n), Soriano (n), Stairs (n)

Hitter Bust Games: Avg GS: 44 Berroa (y), Ad.Jones (n), Bloomquist (y), Reed (n), Marte (y), Span (n), Taveras (y), Stewart (y), Mathis (y), K.Johnson (y), Francoeur (y), Erstad (y), C.Gonzalez (y), Ellsbury (n), C.Izturis (n), Y.Molina (y), Moss (n), San Francisco Giants (y), M.Young (y)

Game Winners: 10-5

Predict-a-Matic: August 2, 2008

More a pitcher's day than a hitter's day.

Jake Peavy may throw a no-hitter today.

Pitchers        IP   H  HR  BB  SO  ER  GS Over% Undr% 
Weaver (LAA)    5.4  6   1   2   4   3  47  24   23
Mussina (NYY)   5.5  7   -   1   3   2  50  24   20
Maholm (PIT)    5.8  7   1   2   5   3  47  19   28
Lilly (CHC)     6.0  6   1   2   5   2  55  34   13
Buehrle (CHW)   6.6  7   0   1   3   2  55  36   17
Davies (KCR)    4.7  6   1   3   3   3  42  11   35
Sabathia (MIL)  7.0  7   -   1   6   2  60  50    9
Morton (ATL)    5.5  5   1   2   4   2  54  33   15
Rogers (DET)    5.4  6   1   2   4   3  45  18   31
Sonnanstine(TBR)6.0  7   1   1   4   3  49  24   23
Santana (NYM)   6.2  6   1   2   6   2  57  41   14
Oswalt (HOU)    6.2  7   1   2   4   3  50  31   19
Eveland (OAK)   4.9  5   0   4   3   2  47  12   31
Lester (BOS)    5.7  6   -   3   5   2  52  32   14
Fogg (CIN)      5.6  6   0   2   4   2  52  30   20
Bergmann (WSN)  5.5  6   1   1   5   2  54  29   15
Byrd (CLE)      6.1  8   -   1   2   2  50  23   23
Slowey (MIN)    5.9  6   1   1   5   2  55  35   16
de la Rosa (COL)              (insufficient data) 
Nolasco (FLA)   6.0  6   1   1   6   2  57  42   12
Burnett (TOR)   6.4  6   1   2   7   3  55  38   14
Feldman (TEX)   6.0  7   1   3   3   3  45  14   34
Blanton (PHI)   6.7  7   -   1   3   2  55  35   17
Looper (STL)    5.5  6   1   1   4   3  47  21   22
Guthrie (BAL)   6.6  7   0   1   3   2  55  36   14
Hernandez (SEA) 6.3  6   0   2   6   2  57  44   13
Zito (SFG)      5.8  6   0   2   4   2  52  26   17
Peavy (SDP)     6.8  5   0   1   8   1  68  72    3
Petit (ARI)     5.3  6   1   2   4   2  50  26   17
Kuroda (LAD)    5.9  6   -   1   5   2  55  35   16

Pitcher Boom Games: Guthrie, Felix, Nolasco, Sabathia, Santana, Peavy, Burnett

Pitcher Bust Games: Davies, Rogers, Eveland, Feldman

Hitter Boom Games: Thome, Griffey, Dunn, Uggla, Ross, C.Pena, ARod, Berkman, Burrell, Howard, McLouth, Aramis, Soriano, Stairs

Hitter Bust Games: Berroa, Ad.Jones, Bloomquist, Reed, A. Phillips, Marte, Span, Taveras, Stewart, Mathis, IRod, K.Johnson, Francoeur, Erstad, C.Gonzalez, Ellsbury, C.Izturis, Y.Molina, Moss, San Francisco Giants, M.Young

Game Winners: Dodgers, *Baltimore, White Sox, *Cincinnati, Minnesota, Florida, Tampa Bay, Yankees, Milwaukee, *Mets, Boston, Philadelphia, Cubs, San Diego, Toronto