Last year I considered Greg Maddux, Aaron Cook, Ben Sheets, Brandon Webb, Doug Davis and Derek Lowe. Maddux got the gold.
Cook appears again on WS, as to Harang, Wainwright, Arroyo, Looper, Penny, Sheets and Webb. BP would support Cook, Maddux, Arroyo, Webb, Oswalt and Dempster. In fact, BP puts Webb and Maddux significantly ahead. Since Maddux won it, Cook finished second last year, and Webb was on the list, I'll eliminate everyone but those three.
Guess I've got to go with the real evidence from BP and give it to Maddux or Webb, but I'm tired of Maddux winning it. So, Brandon Webb.
Iron Glove to Oliver Perez.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
AL Gold Gloves; Pitcher
Last year I said this: "I really, really don't care whether a pitcher gets a gold glove. They don't play enough defense to register on the Win Shares scale, except in hundreths of a decimal point. Only a few register Fielding Runs Above Average."
This year, no starter in the AL had a positive WS fielding total, at least at the tenths of a decimal level. Burnett, Galarraga, Laffey, Pettite and Sonnanstine fared the best. I gave it to Pettitte last year. WARP would support Pettitte or Sonnanstine as choices.
Pettitte has a ton of hardware. Since I don't care about this much, I give it to Andy Sonnanstine.
That's a makeup call for the Iron Glove, which I'm giving to Scott Kazmir.
This year, no starter in the AL had a positive WS fielding total, at least at the tenths of a decimal level. Burnett, Galarraga, Laffey, Pettite and Sonnanstine fared the best. I gave it to Pettitte last year. WARP would support Pettitte or Sonnanstine as choices.
Pettitte has a ton of hardware. Since I don't care about this much, I give it to Andy Sonnanstine.
That's a makeup call for the Iron Glove, which I'm giving to Scott Kazmir.
NL Gold Gloves: Outfield
Here are the NL Gold Glove candidates in the outfield. I'll use Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
Unlike the real voting process, I like to give the three gold gloves to three different outfield positions. Last year the winners were Eric Byrnes in left, Jacque Jones in center (edging Beltran) and Jeff Francoeur in right.
Guess we can get used to seeing Beltran, Cameron, Rowand and Francouer on this list every year, though Francouer is losing playing time. To me the most interesting people on this list are Ryan Braun, who was almost the Iron Glove at 3b last year, and Pat Burrell, who was the Iron Glove in left field last year. BP does not agree Burrell ought to be on here, and if you watch him play, you see why.
Also, it is extremely interesting that Skip Schumaker and Ryan Ludwick, flanking the reputationally-stellar Rick Ankiel, made the list and Ankiel did not. That's a good outfield!
Even though the averages are different depending on what position you play, I'll use 2.6 as the average WS for an outfielder. Since we are ranking them by position it shouldn't matter that left fielders get hurt by that average. Fortunately we don't have the "Ellsbury" problem with this set of fielders, who mostly stayed in the same positions all year.
The only real contenders we have in left field are Braun, Schumaker and Soriano and it's really no context. Ryan Braun gets the gold in left field. I'm pretty sure Soriano wins this if he plays a full season, but he didn't.
In right field it is Hunter Pence vs. Randy Winn, but Pence wins on both Win Shares and FRAA. Always an easy call when that happens. Hunter Pence gets the gold in right.
For the second year in a row Chris Young fares well in WS, but last year BP didn't like him. This year, it does. But it doesn't like Beltran, who I cheated out of the award last year because of his late season collapse. Maybe I knew what I was doing after all. Chris Young wins it in a landslide, with the exciting Shane Victorino second and Beltran third.
So the hardware goes to Braun, Young and Pence.
Iron Gloves last year went to Pat Burrell in left, Nate McLouth in center and Josh Willingham in right.
Willingham played mostly left this year, and was hurt a lot, but still turned in a bad performance. Under FWAA he was as bad as Burrell in about 50 fewer games. But Jason Bay was worse, and that's only counting his games in Pittsburgh. It's a good thing he got traded to Boston. He was bad in LF there too, but at least he didn't play enough games to show up on the radar. Bay gets the Iron in left. Winning the Iron from Burrell, Willingham, Adam Dunn and Carlos Lee is an accomplishment.
I was surprised how poorly Andre Ethier played in right field, but not nearly as surprised as I was about Brad Hawpe. BP didn't like Hawpe last year, but this year, he looks like the worst outfielder at any position, and Win Shares does not disagree. An arm is not enough. Hawpe gets the Iron Glove in right field, edging the aging Brian Giles, who needs to DH somewhere.
McLouth may have had a good year at the plate, but he managed to get even worse in the outfield. Last year he was the worst of a group of pretty good fielders. This year he was just bad. Ankiel almost got the iron here, despite that arm.
Unlike the real voting process, I like to give the three gold gloves to three different outfield positions. Last year the winners were Eric Byrnes in left, Jacque Jones in center (edging Beltran) and Jeff Francoeur in right.
Outfield FWS FWAA Pos C.Young 6.9 1.0 cf Beltran 6.5 0.0 cf Rowand 6.3 0.0 cf Victorino 6.1 0.5 cf Kemp 5.8 0.1 cf Cameron 5.0 0.1 cf Pence 4.8 1.7 rf Winn 4.5 1.4 rf Hart 4.1 -0.6 rf Werth 4.1 1.0 rf Braun 4.1 1.3 lf Fukudome 3.8 0.2 rf Ludwick 3.7 1.3 rf Francoeur 3.6 0.8 rf Schumaker 3.6 0.0 lf Burrell 3.3 -1.2 lf Soriano 3.1 1.1 lf
Guess we can get used to seeing Beltran, Cameron, Rowand and Francouer on this list every year, though Francouer is losing playing time. To me the most interesting people on this list are Ryan Braun, who was almost the Iron Glove at 3b last year, and Pat Burrell, who was the Iron Glove in left field last year. BP does not agree Burrell ought to be on here, and if you watch him play, you see why.
Also, it is extremely interesting that Skip Schumaker and Ryan Ludwick, flanking the reputationally-stellar Rick Ankiel, made the list and Ankiel did not. That's a good outfield!
Even though the averages are different depending on what position you play, I'll use 2.6 as the average WS for an outfielder. Since we are ranking them by position it shouldn't matter that left fielders get hurt by that average. Fortunately we don't have the "Ellsbury" problem with this set of fielders, who mostly stayed in the same positions all year.
The only real contenders we have in left field are Braun, Schumaker and Soriano and it's really no context. Ryan Braun gets the gold in left field. I'm pretty sure Soriano wins this if he plays a full season, but he didn't.
In right field it is Hunter Pence vs. Randy Winn, but Pence wins on both Win Shares and FRAA. Always an easy call when that happens. Hunter Pence gets the gold in right.
For the second year in a row Chris Young fares well in WS, but last year BP didn't like him. This year, it does. But it doesn't like Beltran, who I cheated out of the award last year because of his late season collapse. Maybe I knew what I was doing after all. Chris Young wins it in a landslide, with the exciting Shane Victorino second and Beltran third.
So the hardware goes to Braun, Young and Pence.
Iron Gloves last year went to Pat Burrell in left, Nate McLouth in center and Josh Willingham in right.
Willingham played mostly left this year, and was hurt a lot, but still turned in a bad performance. Under FWAA he was as bad as Burrell in about 50 fewer games. But Jason Bay was worse, and that's only counting his games in Pittsburgh. It's a good thing he got traded to Boston. He was bad in LF there too, but at least he didn't play enough games to show up on the radar. Bay gets the Iron in left. Winning the Iron from Burrell, Willingham, Adam Dunn and Carlos Lee is an accomplishment.
I was surprised how poorly Andre Ethier played in right field, but not nearly as surprised as I was about Brad Hawpe. BP didn't like Hawpe last year, but this year, he looks like the worst outfielder at any position, and Win Shares does not disagree. An arm is not enough. Hawpe gets the Iron Glove in right field, edging the aging Brian Giles, who needs to DH somewhere.
McLouth may have had a good year at the plate, but he managed to get even worse in the outfield. Last year he was the worst of a group of pretty good fielders. This year he was just bad. Ankiel almost got the iron here, despite that arm.
AL Gold Gloves: Outfield
Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates in the outfield. I'll use Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
Unlike the real voting process, I like to give the three gold gloves to three different outfield positions. Last year I had eclectic winners: Reggie Willits in left, Coco Crisp in center and Mark Teahen in right. Ahem. I don't expect a repeat.
Ellsbury is a tough one, because he is a top defender, but he splits time between the three positions and plays all of them well. I've prorated his numbers at each position to determine how he would fare if he played there all the time, so my evaluation of him will be done on that basis. David Dejesus, Alexis Rios and Jay Payton have similar problems, but not so pronounced. (Dejesus ought to be in left, and Rios ought to be in center, by the way).
Even though the averages are different depending on what position you play, I'll use 2.6 as the average WS for an outfielder. Since we are ranking them by position it shouldn't matter that left fielders get hurt by that average.
The only real contenders we have in left field are Dejesus, Ellsbury and Payton, all of whom split time among all three positions to one degree or another. Payton and Dejesus are the only two with their primary positions in left, but Ellsbury's left field numbers are better than Payton's. Nonetheless, Dejesus comes out ahead and gets the left field Gold Glove.
Right field appears to be Rios' province according to the chart above, but much of those positives came in center field, not right. Franklin Gutierrez has some good "pure" right field numbers. However, all of the right field numbers pale in comparison to Jacoby Ellsbury's right field numbers. Ellsbury is, quite simply, a gold glover at every outfield position, since he's definitely a center field candidate too. However, because there are other worthy center field candidates, Ellsbury gets my Gold Glove in right field. He'll move to center with Crisp gone, and they'll get even better in the outfield. Hard to believe, because Crisp is no slouch.
In center field the true contest is between Torii Hunter, he of the multiple gold, Alexis Rios and Jacoby Ellsbury. I've already given Ellsbury the award, so we'll eliminate him, but for the record, he has the best projected center field numbers. The chart would indicate Hunter as the choice, but Rios' numbers on the chart are suppressed by a pedestrian performance in right field. Pro rating his numbers for center, he comes out ahead of Hunter. The pro ration is a useful device, but it is not infallible. When it butts up against a known quantity like Hunter, I've got to go with the known quantity.
So the hardware goes to Dejesus, Hunter and Ellsbury. I like that look a lot better than last year's list.
Iron Gloves last year went to the two guys flanking Suzuki (Ibanez and Guillen) and Jerry Owens in center field. One wonders whether Suzuki's prowess hurt those two guys. Suzuki was below average this year, and Ibanez and Guillen rated as average this year. Hmmm.
Magglio Ordonez is a hands down winner of the Iron Glove in right field. Raul Ibanez is nothing if not consistent in left, and would get his second consecutive Iron Glove out there, if it weren't for Delmon Young, who stunk it up. Center is always hard, because there are no terrible defenders in center, except relative to the other center fielders in the league. Josh Hamilton is clearly the worst center fielder in the league, though, so it was a much easier call this year.
Unlike the real voting process, I like to give the three gold gloves to three different outfield positions. Last year I had eclectic winners: Reggie Willits in left, Coco Crisp in center and Mark Teahen in right. Ahem. I don't expect a repeat.
Outfield FWS FWAA Pos Upton 6.7 0.9 cf Hunter 6.7 1.7 cf Ellsbury 6.5 2.0 cf (see below) Rios 6.4 1.2 rf (see below) Gross 5.3 0.0 rf C.Gomez 4.5 1.0 cf Crisp 4.1 0.0 cf Sizemore 3.8 -1.3 cf DeJesus 3.7 0.4 lf (see below) Wells 3.7 -0.3 cf Dye 3.6 0.6 rf Teahen 3.3 0.3 rf Granderson 3.0 0.3 cf Gutierrez 2.9 1.7 rf Payton 2.6 1.9 lf G.Anderson 2.4 0.3 lf Francisco 1.9 0.1 lf
Ellsbury is a tough one, because he is a top defender, but he splits time between the three positions and plays all of them well. I've prorated his numbers at each position to determine how he would fare if he played there all the time, so my evaluation of him will be done on that basis. David Dejesus, Alexis Rios and Jay Payton have similar problems, but not so pronounced. (Dejesus ought to be in left, and Rios ought to be in center, by the way).
Even though the averages are different depending on what position you play, I'll use 2.6 as the average WS for an outfielder. Since we are ranking them by position it shouldn't matter that left fielders get hurt by that average.
The only real contenders we have in left field are Dejesus, Ellsbury and Payton, all of whom split time among all three positions to one degree or another. Payton and Dejesus are the only two with their primary positions in left, but Ellsbury's left field numbers are better than Payton's. Nonetheless, Dejesus comes out ahead and gets the left field Gold Glove.
Right field appears to be Rios' province according to the chart above, but much of those positives came in center field, not right. Franklin Gutierrez has some good "pure" right field numbers. However, all of the right field numbers pale in comparison to Jacoby Ellsbury's right field numbers. Ellsbury is, quite simply, a gold glover at every outfield position, since he's definitely a center field candidate too. However, because there are other worthy center field candidates, Ellsbury gets my Gold Glove in right field. He'll move to center with Crisp gone, and they'll get even better in the outfield. Hard to believe, because Crisp is no slouch.
In center field the true contest is between Torii Hunter, he of the multiple gold, Alexis Rios and Jacoby Ellsbury. I've already given Ellsbury the award, so we'll eliminate him, but for the record, he has the best projected center field numbers. The chart would indicate Hunter as the choice, but Rios' numbers on the chart are suppressed by a pedestrian performance in right field. Pro rating his numbers for center, he comes out ahead of Hunter. The pro ration is a useful device, but it is not infallible. When it butts up against a known quantity like Hunter, I've got to go with the known quantity.
So the hardware goes to Dejesus, Hunter and Ellsbury. I like that look a lot better than last year's list.
Iron Gloves last year went to the two guys flanking Suzuki (Ibanez and Guillen) and Jerry Owens in center field. One wonders whether Suzuki's prowess hurt those two guys. Suzuki was below average this year, and Ibanez and Guillen rated as average this year. Hmmm.
Magglio Ordonez is a hands down winner of the Iron Glove in right field. Raul Ibanez is nothing if not consistent in left, and would get his second consecutive Iron Glove out there, if it weren't for Delmon Young, who stunk it up. Center is always hard, because there are no terrible defenders in center, except relative to the other center fielders in the league. Josh Hamilton is clearly the worst center fielder in the league, though, so it was a much easier call this year.
NL Gold Gloves: Shortstop
Here are the NL Gold Glove candidates at shortstop. I'll use Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
Last year's winner, Troy Tulowitzki, missed a huge chunk of the year, as did the second place finisher Rafael Furcal. The only solid returner on this list from last year's list is J.J. Hardy. All three young guns are here (Reyes, Rollins and Ramirez). Should we be talking about Hardy in the same breath?
Using the composite method with 4.8 as the average WS for a shortstop, Miguel Tejada wins this in a giant comeback reminiscent of his former glory. Hardy is a close second. No third place award, as there's nothing special about the rest of them on defense.
So will Tulowitzki blow everyone away again next year. Not sure. He had a fairly pedestrian WS number (projected to a full season) and was only average in FWAA. I don't think 2007 was a fluke. I think Troy lost his focus in 2008. If he gets it back, I expect him to win it again.
Eckstein got the Iron last year, but he switched leagues to avoid the same fate. The NL doesn't have any horrible shortstops...no one on the magnitude of Yuniesky Betancourt. Choices are Stephen Drew or Yunel Escobar. They are literally tied, even if I also factor in last year. I'll give it to Drew, because at least Escobar had the courtesy to play 72 fewer games at the position over the last two years.
Shortstop FWS FWAA Hardy 6.6 0.7 Tejada 6.5 1.3 Rollins 5.6 0.3 H.Ramirez 5.3 -0.3 Guzman 5.1 0.3 Theriot 5.0 -0.3 Reyes 4.9 -0.4
Last year's winner, Troy Tulowitzki, missed a huge chunk of the year, as did the second place finisher Rafael Furcal. The only solid returner on this list from last year's list is J.J. Hardy. All three young guns are here (Reyes, Rollins and Ramirez). Should we be talking about Hardy in the same breath?
Using the composite method with 4.8 as the average WS for a shortstop, Miguel Tejada wins this in a giant comeback reminiscent of his former glory. Hardy is a close second. No third place award, as there's nothing special about the rest of them on defense.
So will Tulowitzki blow everyone away again next year. Not sure. He had a fairly pedestrian WS number (projected to a full season) and was only average in FWAA. I don't think 2007 was a fluke. I think Troy lost his focus in 2008. If he gets it back, I expect him to win it again.
Eckstein got the Iron last year, but he switched leagues to avoid the same fate. The NL doesn't have any horrible shortstops...no one on the magnitude of Yuniesky Betancourt. Choices are Stephen Drew or Yunel Escobar. They are literally tied, even if I also factor in last year. I'll give it to Drew, because at least Escobar had the courtesy to play 72 fewer games at the position over the last two years.
AL Gold Gloves: Shortstop
Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates at shortstop. I'll use Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
Last year's winner, Juan Uribe, moved to third base. Orlando Cabrera finished second, so he glides into the top spot. Cabrera's replacement in LA, Erick Aybar, also made the list, as did rookie Mike Aviles.
And how about Michael Young, whose defense has been consistently derided over the years? Those are days of the past. He was terrible from 2003-2005...possibly the worst in the league. But he had a great 2006, and average 2007, and another really good 2008. Got to give him props for improving.
Using the composite method with 4.8 as the average WS for a shortstop, Michael Young wins this. Holy crap. Cabrera finishes second, perhaps masking for the White Sox how much he fell off at the plate. Aybar comes in third.
Last year the Iron Glove went to Brendan Harris because he was a disaster for Tampa Bay (problem solved with Jason Bartlett). This year he split time between positions, and generally played a solid shortstop. Not so for Yuniesky Betancourt, who was awful by all measures. Far worse than the next worst shortstop, Edgar Renteria. (Aside, I thought Renteria was old, but he's only 33 next season. Guess than happens when you are playing full time at age 20).
Shortstop FWS FWAA Cabrera 8.0 1.2 Young 7.3 2.0 Peralta 6.7 0.5 E.Aybar 6.1 1.0 Aviles 5.5 0.3 Crosby 5.3 -0.7 Bartlett 5.3 -0.6
Last year's winner, Juan Uribe, moved to third base. Orlando Cabrera finished second, so he glides into the top spot. Cabrera's replacement in LA, Erick Aybar, also made the list, as did rookie Mike Aviles.
And how about Michael Young, whose defense has been consistently derided over the years? Those are days of the past. He was terrible from 2003-2005...possibly the worst in the league. But he had a great 2006, and average 2007, and another really good 2008. Got to give him props for improving.
Using the composite method with 4.8 as the average WS for a shortstop, Michael Young wins this. Holy crap. Cabrera finishes second, perhaps masking for the White Sox how much he fell off at the plate. Aybar comes in third.
Last year the Iron Glove went to Brendan Harris because he was a disaster for Tampa Bay (problem solved with Jason Bartlett). This year he split time between positions, and generally played a solid shortstop. Not so for Yuniesky Betancourt, who was awful by all measures. Far worse than the next worst shortstop, Edgar Renteria. (Aside, I thought Renteria was old, but he's only 33 next season. Guess than happens when you are playing full time at age 20).
NL Gold Gloves: Third Base
Here are the NL Gold Glove candidates at third base. I'll use Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
Yep, that's right, Troy Glaus is at the top of the WS list, and Blake Dewitt, who the Dodgers are teaching to play second base, is second on the list of WS. Hard to know how much of that is 3b and how much is 2b. BP thinks he was below average at 2b and quite good at 3b. In fact, I didn't find anyone at 3b in the NL with more FWAA at 3b! Based on outs, I'll give him 80% of his WS total for 3b.
The returners from last year's list are Ramirez, Wright, Feliz, and Zimmerman, the latter of which got my gold glove last year. Kouzmanoff is a returner, of sorts. He got my Iron Glove last year! Another Jason Kendall perhaps?
This is a mishmash if BP is right about two stalwarts, Ramirez and Wright. Ramirez finished a close second for my gold glove last year.
Using the composite method with 2.0 as the average WS for a third baseman, Blake Dewitt gets the gold glove. Unbelievable. Zimmerman finishes second, and Kouzmanoff third. Expect Zimmerman to be back next year, since he only played 100 or so games this year.
As I mentioned, last years Iron Glove went to Kouzmanoff, who clearly worked out the kinks. This year it is an easy call with Edwin Encarnacion, who actually fared worse than Kouzmanoff's numbers last year. FWAA shows that he cost the Reds more than 2 wins all by himself, compared to what a merely average third baseman would have done. But Blake Dewitt at third for the Reds and they win two more games (gaining 3 wins at third and losing 1 win at the plate).
Third base FWS FWAA Glaus 4.3 0.3 Dewitt 3.4 1.2 [see below re: Win Shares) Kouzmanoff 4.2 0.8 A.Ramirez 3.6 -0.3 Wright 3.3 -0.4 Atkins 3.1 -0.5 Feliz 3.1 0.2 Zimmerman 3.1 1.0
Yep, that's right, Troy Glaus is at the top of the WS list, and Blake Dewitt, who the Dodgers are teaching to play second base, is second on the list of WS. Hard to know how much of that is 3b and how much is 2b. BP thinks he was below average at 2b and quite good at 3b. In fact, I didn't find anyone at 3b in the NL with more FWAA at 3b! Based on outs, I'll give him 80% of his WS total for 3b.
The returners from last year's list are Ramirez, Wright, Feliz, and Zimmerman, the latter of which got my gold glove last year. Kouzmanoff is a returner, of sorts. He got my Iron Glove last year! Another Jason Kendall perhaps?
This is a mishmash if BP is right about two stalwarts, Ramirez and Wright. Ramirez finished a close second for my gold glove last year.
Using the composite method with 2.0 as the average WS for a third baseman, Blake Dewitt gets the gold glove. Unbelievable. Zimmerman finishes second, and Kouzmanoff third. Expect Zimmerman to be back next year, since he only played 100 or so games this year.
As I mentioned, last years Iron Glove went to Kouzmanoff, who clearly worked out the kinks. This year it is an easy call with Edwin Encarnacion, who actually fared worse than Kouzmanoff's numbers last year. FWAA shows that he cost the Reds more than 2 wins all by himself, compared to what a merely average third baseman would have done. But Blake Dewitt at third for the Reds and they win two more games (gaining 3 wins at third and losing 1 win at the plate).
AL Gold Gloves: Third Base
Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates at third base. I'll start by saying Evan Longoria is a bad ass at third base. I don't know if he'll be on this list, but if not, he will be one day.
Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
Two younguns, Longoria and Gordon make the list. Also, Juan Uribe jumps in there after his first full season at 3b (and probably his last). Uribe won my gold glove at shorstop last year! Otherwise, it's a collection of the frequently-injured and ARod.
Our disparity in this case is clearly Gordon (though Figgy and Beltre are there too).
But no matter. Longoria clearly wins this. Using the composite method with 2.0 as the average WS for a third baseman, Mike Lowell actually finishes second, with ARod third. Lowell is underappreciated. He finished second with a bad back and hip. I used to watch him with the Marlins. He stands on third so cooly, but his reactions are instantaneous.
Last year the Iron Glove went to a troubled Eric Chavez, surprisingly. Win Shares would probably give it to Carlos Guillen, who transitioned from the toughest position on the defensive spectrum (SS) to the easiest (1b) and then back to the middle of the spectrum at 3b. But FWAA thinks he was better than average over there.
Though it is tempting to give it to the combo of Brian Buscher and Mike Lamb for the Twins, they were outdone by Ramon Vazquez filling in for Hank Blaylock (again). Vazquez gets the Iron Glove, but in truth, he's not really that bad.
Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
Third base FWS FWAA Longoria 4.8 1.9 ARod 4.6 0.4 Uribe 4.3 0.2 Lowell 4.3 1.1 Figgins 3.2 -1.0 Beltre 3.1 -0.8 Gordon 3.1 -2.0 Hannahan 3.1 0.7 Mora 3.0 0.3 Rolen 2.9 0.0
Two younguns, Longoria and Gordon make the list. Also, Juan Uribe jumps in there after his first full season at 3b (and probably his last). Uribe won my gold glove at shorstop last year! Otherwise, it's a collection of the frequently-injured and ARod.
Our disparity in this case is clearly Gordon (though Figgy and Beltre are there too).
But no matter. Longoria clearly wins this. Using the composite method with 2.0 as the average WS for a third baseman, Mike Lowell actually finishes second, with ARod third. Lowell is underappreciated. He finished second with a bad back and hip. I used to watch him with the Marlins. He stands on third so cooly, but his reactions are instantaneous.
Last year the Iron Glove went to a troubled Eric Chavez, surprisingly. Win Shares would probably give it to Carlos Guillen, who transitioned from the toughest position on the defensive spectrum (SS) to the easiest (1b) and then back to the middle of the spectrum at 3b. But FWAA thinks he was better than average over there.
Though it is tempting to give it to the combo of Brian Buscher and Mike Lamb for the Twins, they were outdone by Ramon Vazquez filling in for Hank Blaylock (again). Vazquez gets the Iron Glove, but in truth, he's not really that bad.
NL Gold Gloves: Second Base
Here are the NL Gold Glove candidates at second base. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
The names are pretty much the same as last year, including Phillips at the top...except Kaz Matsui and Marcus Giles lost their jobs. Some may be surprised by Uggla since his All-Star Game appearance made him look like a little leaguer. But he was in the top 5 last year too, and he's a hard worker.
I only saw two major league games live this year. In one, Kelly Johnson made a horrible error that caused the Braves to lose to the Phillies and was generally regarded as the nail in the coffin for the Braves. And that was in July. But it couldn't have been all Johnson's fault. Besides, Johnson has been on my gold glove list before.
And let's acknowledge the defensive talent of Orlando Hudson. The guy only played 107 games. I saw him make a play, behind shortstop(!), that told me all I need to know about his fielding.
DeRosa made the WS list, but that's a composite from all over the field. He played 95 games at 2b, 22 at 3b, 27 in LF, 38 in RF and one each at short and first. BP sees about half of his defensive value coming at 2b. That takes him off our list, but BP agrees he was a positive fielding contributor. What a valuable guy to have on the team.
I've got Iguchi on the list because of the disparity in system rankings. WS has him far below average, and FWAA has him as the best in the NL.
As a whole, this is generally an unremarkable group. Using the composite score method (see the NL Catcher's gold glove post), based on an average second baseman achieving 4.3 fielding win shares, Phillips gets the gold glove again, with Hudson second and Kelly Johnson third. [Technically Iguchi finishes second in the composite method because of the high FWAA score, but I can't give him second when the two systems disagree so greatly.]
Phillips is one hell of a talent, because that bat is something to talk about too. He's lost behind the Utley-love.
Last year the Iron Glove went to Craig Biggio and his stand in Chris Burke. Since we don't have them to kick around anymore, who was the worst in the NL at second? I always like to start by looking at Jeff Kent. In year's past he has foiled me by not being as bad as I think. But not anymore. Welcome Jeff, to the Iron Glove club. We can only be thankful he had to sit out 20 games he otherwise would have played.
Second base FWS FWAA Phillips 7.1 1.4 Utley 6.6 0.4 Hudson 5.2 1.2 K.Johnson 4.3 1.2 Uggla 4.7 0.8 Iguchi 2.4 2.0
The names are pretty much the same as last year, including Phillips at the top...except Kaz Matsui and Marcus Giles lost their jobs. Some may be surprised by Uggla since his All-Star Game appearance made him look like a little leaguer. But he was in the top 5 last year too, and he's a hard worker.
I only saw two major league games live this year. In one, Kelly Johnson made a horrible error that caused the Braves to lose to the Phillies and was generally regarded as the nail in the coffin for the Braves. And that was in July. But it couldn't have been all Johnson's fault. Besides, Johnson has been on my gold glove list before.
And let's acknowledge the defensive talent of Orlando Hudson. The guy only played 107 games. I saw him make a play, behind shortstop(!), that told me all I need to know about his fielding.
DeRosa made the WS list, but that's a composite from all over the field. He played 95 games at 2b, 22 at 3b, 27 in LF, 38 in RF and one each at short and first. BP sees about half of his defensive value coming at 2b. That takes him off our list, but BP agrees he was a positive fielding contributor. What a valuable guy to have on the team.
I've got Iguchi on the list because of the disparity in system rankings. WS has him far below average, and FWAA has him as the best in the NL.
As a whole, this is generally an unremarkable group. Using the composite score method (see the NL Catcher's gold glove post), based on an average second baseman achieving 4.3 fielding win shares, Phillips gets the gold glove again, with Hudson second and Kelly Johnson third. [Technically Iguchi finishes second in the composite method because of the high FWAA score, but I can't give him second when the two systems disagree so greatly.]
Phillips is one hell of a talent, because that bat is something to talk about too. He's lost behind the Utley-love.
Last year the Iron Glove went to Craig Biggio and his stand in Chris Burke. Since we don't have them to kick around anymore, who was the worst in the NL at second? I always like to start by looking at Jeff Kent. In year's past he has foiled me by not being as bad as I think. But not anymore. Welcome Jeff, to the Iron Glove club. We can only be thankful he had to sit out 20 games he otherwise would have played.
AL Gold Gloves: Second Base
After a hiatus, here are the AL Gold Glove candidates at second base. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
Win Shares is an interesting list. I watched Iwamura all year long and would have described him as average, and his FWAA bears that out. Cano had a generally disappointing year at the plate, but excelled in the field. He was my gold glvoe last year.
And there's Alexei Ramirez again, who Win Shares liked in the ROY battle, but WARP did not. Here's part of the reason. Win Shares has him 6th best in fielding, and WARP thinks he was the second worst fielding second baseman in the league.
Conspicuous in his absence is Placido Polanco. Neither WS nor WARP was impressed with his defense. In fact, he's the only second baseman I could find ranked lower in fielding by FWAA than Ramirez.
Using the composite score method (see the NL Catcher's gold glove post), based on an average second baseman achieving 4.3 fielding win shares, Cano gets the gold glove again, with Pedroia second and Lopez third.
Last year the Iron Glove went to Danny Richar, who lost his job to Alexei Ramirez. Because of the Win Shares love, Ramirez won't replace him in the Iron Glove standings too. This year, it goes to the formerly talented Placido Polanco, who showed quite a decline in last year's standings. He's losing it, and at age 33, he's quickly going to run himself out of the league.
Second base FWS FWAA Pedroia 7.6 0.4 Iwamura 5.9 0.3 Cano 5.8 1.2 A.Cabrera 5.6 0.7 J. Lopez 5.4 1.2 A.Ramirez 5.3 -1.7 Kendrick 5.3 0.9 Ellis 4.9 0.2
Win Shares is an interesting list. I watched Iwamura all year long and would have described him as average, and his FWAA bears that out. Cano had a generally disappointing year at the plate, but excelled in the field. He was my gold glvoe last year.
And there's Alexei Ramirez again, who Win Shares liked in the ROY battle, but WARP did not. Here's part of the reason. Win Shares has him 6th best in fielding, and WARP thinks he was the second worst fielding second baseman in the league.
Conspicuous in his absence is Placido Polanco. Neither WS nor WARP was impressed with his defense. In fact, he's the only second baseman I could find ranked lower in fielding by FWAA than Ramirez.
Using the composite score method (see the NL Catcher's gold glove post), based on an average second baseman achieving 4.3 fielding win shares, Cano gets the gold glove again, with Pedroia second and Lopez third.
Last year the Iron Glove went to Danny Richar, who lost his job to Alexei Ramirez. Because of the Win Shares love, Ramirez won't replace him in the Iron Glove standings too. This year, it goes to the formerly talented Placido Polanco, who showed quite a decline in last year's standings. He's losing it, and at age 33, he's quickly going to run himself out of the league.
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