NL MVP

Last year David Wright edged Albert Pujols as my NL MVP, but I correctly predicted that Rollins would win it.  I don't think either of those things is going to happen this year, although there is a lot of talk about Ryan Howard winning it this year. 

Let's look at their Win Shares and their WARP1 scores from Baseball Prospectus, along with a few other candidates.

Player      WS*   WARP**
Pujols      35     11.8
Ludwick     26      8.3
H.Ramirez   32      7.3
Uggla       25      5.7
C.Jones     24      8.4
Berkman     38      9.5
Wright      29      7.5
Reyes       29      5.5
Beltran     33      6.5
Utley       30      7.0
Howard      25      3.4
Rollins     24      4.1
Holliday    23      7.1
M.Ramirez   34      8.6
Ethier      25      4.5
A.Gonzalez  26      6.6
McLouth     25      3.9
Fielder     23      4.3 
Braun       25      6.7
D.Lee       18      5.7
A.Ramirez   25      4.7
DeRosa      23      5.6
J.Santana   21      8.6
Lincecum    27      9.5
Dempster    18      7.5
Hamels      18      7.8
Webb        22      8.7
Haren       20      8.3
Sabathia    25     10.7

*Source: The Hardball Times
**Source: Baseball Prospectus. I use FRAA, instead of FRAR, so the WARP1 number is converted. That hurts some players more than others. For instance, it takes 2.2 WARP away from Hanley Ramirez, since he is better than replacement, but below average.

Pujols runs away with it. His 11.8 WARP1 number (with my fielding adjustment) is a big big number.  The best of Pujols career. 

I think he's going to win it, but I think the Howard and Fielder bandwagons are strong. The fact is, of those three guys, only one guy did it consistently all year.

Howard didn't heat up until September. Had he played to his capabilities, the Phillies would have run away with the East instead of clinching just before the season ended. Also, check out some of the other numbers on the Phillies. Jayson Werth and Jimmy Rollins were extremely valuable down the stretch too.

Last year Rollins won it and I thought he was fifth.  If Howard wins it, it is much more of a travesty.  He doesn't even belong in the discussion. Let's put this in perspective: Ryan Howard was about half as good as Ryan Ludwick.

I think it is totally appropriate to include Manny in the discussion, even though more than 1/2 of his season was in the AL. The AL/NL distinction means very little anymore. Manny is almost single-handedly responsible for the Dodgers making the playoffs, and more than half of his numbers above came in the NL.

Here's a table with a composite score, which I described in my NL Catcher's post, assuming the replacement WS for a player is 5.

Player       Composite
Pujols           65.4
Berkman          61.4
M.Ramirez        54.8
Sabathia         52.1
Lincecum         50.5
H.Ramirez        48.9
Beltran          46.5
Wright           46.5
Utley            46.0
Ludwick          45.9
C.Jones          44.2
Webb             43.1
J.Santana        41.8
A.Gonzalez       40.8
Reyes            40.5
Braun            40.1
Haren            40.2
Holliday         39.3
Uggla            37.1
Hamels           36.4
Dempster         35.5
DeRosa           34.8
A.Ramirez        34.1
Ethier           33.5
McLouth          31.7
Rollins          31.3
Fielder          30.9 
Howard           30.2
D.Lee            30.1

Assuming pitchers aren't eligible (b/c they never win and they have their own award), Pujols gets it easily, with Berkman second. I'll give third to Hanley, since Manny split leagues, with Manny 4th and the surprising Ryan Ludwick 5th. I'm ignoring the Mets before Ludwick, since they collapsed at the end. Again.

Sabathia and Pitcher Abuse

Another rant about Fox.

Some of the pre-game discussion was about the Brewers using C.C. Sabathia on three days rest.  The commentators, including the wooden Ken Rosenthal, suggested this was perhaps inappropriate, considering Sabathia will be a free agent.

What????  Sabathia is the pitching horse on a team that is desperately trying to salvage a playoff run, and whose #2 starter, Ben Sheets, is made out of rice paper.  Pitching a guy on three days rest is not abuse.  In fact, for the majority of baseball history, three days was normal rest. 

The Brewers might have a duty to Sabathia not to destroy him physically, the same way a mining company should not send workers into an airless mine without oxygen, but pitching on three days rest does not qualify.  Importantly, and contrary to the commentary, the Brewers do not have a duty to the open market to preserve Sabathia as a great free agent. 

Nor do they have a duty to Sabathia in terms of making sure he gets maximum money in the free agent market.  He plays for the Brewers.  They are paying him.  They are in a playoff hunt.  Absent truly destructive behavior that would qualify as abuse of any employee, the Brewers ought to pitch him as much as they can to make the playoffs.

AL Rookie of the Year

On the Fox pre-game, Kevin Kennedy said Alexei Ramirez ought to get the AL Rookie of the Year over Evan Longoria because "he plays the infield and has played all year."

Oh dear, that is soooooo bad.  Why do I keep getting surprised?

First, Longoria plays the infield.  Last I checked third base is as much in the infield as second base.

Second, is it Longoria's fault that he missed 31 games with a bad wrist?  It's too bad, and if that means he didn't contribute as much, fine.  But if his performance exceeds that of Ramirez, why should the injury alone be a strike against Longoria?

Third -- and this is important -- Longoria has 466 plate appearances.  Ramirez, who Kennedy credits for playing "all year" has 470 plate appearances!  Longoria missed 31 games with an injury and only has 4 fewer plate appearances!

So Kennedy's rationale:  infield and playing time, are essentially equal between the two.  His comment is just plain uninformed.

Finally, let's look at performance, which ought to be the true arbiter of the award.  Here are the BA/OBP/SLG for the two players:

297/320/483 - Ramirez
281/352/545 - Longoria

A 32 point OBP advantage and 62 point SLG advantage far outweigh Ramirez' 16 batting points advantage.  It's the difference between a good 803 OPS for Ramirez and an 897 OPS for Longoria.  Using Tango's quick and dirty OPS Wins formula, that's about 6.1 wins for Longoria and 4.3 wins for Ramirez.  Based solely on batting.

Let's see what Baseball Prospectus says about their hitting, using Value Above Replacement Player, which relates their batting performances relative to a replacement player at their position:

21.7 - Ramirez
36.3 - Longoria

Wins are equivalent to approximately 10 runs, so BP confirms that the hitting different is around 1.5 wins.  (Unlike the OPS wins, this BP measure is wins above replacement, which explains why the absolute numbers are so much lower than the OPS wins).    

How about defense?  BP says Ramirez has allowed 16 more runs than the average second baseman.  Longoria has saved 15 runs above average for his position.  (I'm a little surprised Longoria's number is so low...Longoria is one of the best I've seen at third).  Anyway, that 31 run swing is a difference of about 3 wins.

Longoria missed 31 games, but has put up better rate numbers, and better cumulative statistics, than Ramirez who Kennedy credits with playing all year. A guy who misses 31 games but contributes about 4.5 wins more than another player, ought to be ahead in the Rookie of the Year race.  The missed games are irrelevant, except to make the point about how much further ahead Longoria would be if he had actually been healthy!

Let's hope no one important was listening to Kennedy.

My Favorite Players This Year Are...

...Cliff Lee and Carlos Delgado.

Why?  Because they were both written off.  Lee had a terrible season last year, and was considered done.  Now he's 22-2 and is going to win the AL Cy Young going away.

Delgado was written off mid-season.  It was widely reported that he would be given his outright release!  I did a post about this, on a night when Delgado seemed to be turning it around.  Before that game, in 74 games and 314 PAs, Delgado was .229/.306/.396 for a shortstop-like 702 OPS.  Only 11 HR and 35 RBI.

Since that post, in 67 games and 296 PAS, Delgado has been .304/.395/.648 for a stellar 1043 OPS.  With 24 HR and 69 RBI.

A moment ago, Kevin Kennedy said from the Fox Studio that Delgado is an MVP candidate.  I don't think Kennedy is right, but to go from outright release to even one baseball insider calling you an MVP is redemption.  Big time redemption.

Ken Rosenthal

Ken Rosenthal is the on-the-field reporter for the Fox telecasts on weekends.  He's awful.

First, I've never heard him say anything that you couldn't find anywhere else.  He's no Peter Gammons.

Second, he's a terrible broadcaster.  Everything he says has an air of bemusement about it.  It's not quite as annoying as the look of bemusement permanently fused to George Bush's face, even when talking about tragedies.  But Rosenthal had that look of bemusement while talking about Ned Yost's job being on the line if the Brewers miss the post-season.  Is he proud of what he's saying?  Have the producers told him to make it lighter, because it's Fox?  Or is he flirting with Jeannie Zelasco?

Also, everything he says from the field sounds scripted...like he's reading from a teleprompter.  It has the same feel as when a local reporter does a scripted lead-in from a live location, and then rolls a "package". Every time Rosenthal speaks, I think he's throwing to a package.  But of course, there's no tape that follows.  Just another scripted question from Zelasco and scripted response from Rosenthal.

How do guys like this get these jobs?

Side note:  Jeannie Zelasco is dressed like Annie Oakley today.