Hutton vs. Seaver

In tonight's Braves-Marlins game, the Marlins play-by-play man said his broadcast partner Tommy Hutton "had a very good career" against Hall of Famer Tom Seaver.

Now if you didn't see Hutton hit, you don't really know how unlikely this seems to be.  Hutton played 12 seasons in the majors, but only had 1,919 plate appearances, which is only 160 a year.  That's called hanging on.  His OPS was .673, which was bad even by the standards of the 70s.  Hutton was an above average hitter in only one of those 12 seasons. 

But it's true that Hutton tore up Seaver.  First of all, Hutton faced Seaver more than any other pitcher (62 PAs).  The next closest was not very close:  Rick Reuschel at 42 PAs.

Second, his slash line was 320/435/540 for a 975 OPS.  Compare that to 248/339/334 in his "normal" life as a hitter.  He had 3 homers against Seaver in 50 ABs, for a 6% home run rate.  Hutton only hit 22 homers in 12 years, in 1655 ABs, for a 1% home run rate.

Third, he had 15 RBI against Seaver in those At-Bats, which is 1 RBI for every 3.3 ABs.  In his normal hitting life he had 186 RBI (about 15 a year!), which is 1 RBI for every 8.89 ABs.

Perhaps even more amazing is that in Hutton's last three years, he was 0-for-10 against Seaver.  So if you think those numbers above look good, imagine if he retired at the end of 1978.  He only had 150 ABs in those last 3 years anyway. 

Of course that's just 62 PAs.  It doesn't mean Hutton would hit like that against Seaver over a full season.   But even if you calculate the uncertainty of his numbers based on the small sample size, the low end of the estimates would be a 254/372/406 slash line, which is still significantly better than he did against everyone else.

Okay, so he wouldn't wallop the HoFer over 162 game seasons, but still, he actually did hit rake against Seaver when given the opportunity.

Apart from being a Seaver killer, how did Hutton stick for 12 years with a weak bat?  He was a decent pinch hitter.  Almost 20% of his at bats came as a pinch hitter, and he hit .266, quite a bit better than his non-pinch hitting average.  And he had 46 RBI as a pinch hitter, which was 25% of his career total.

1984 Classic

On the MLB Network today they replayed the June 23, 1984 contest between the Cardinals and Cubs at Wrigley.  It was an 11-inning game that the Cubs won 12-11, in no small part because of Sandberg's two home runs.  Willie McGee also hit for the cycle.

There's so much that happened in this game that it is almost pointless to try to summarize it.  Instead, I'll simply add some thoughts beyond the play-by-play:

• Sometimes our memories glorify athletes, and then when we see them in antique video, they don't impress.  Not so with Ozzie Smith at shortstop.  He glided.  He made two very nice plays to his right, and his throws were effortless.

• Tony Kubek (NBC color commentator) quoted Smith's manager, Whitey Herzog, as saying Ozzie saved his team 100 runs a season.  Smith was good, but not THAT good.  He saved about 200 runs over his career.
  

• This was Sandberg's third multi-home run game of his career.  He had just done it about three weeks prior at Philadelphia, and he would do it another 22 times in his career after this game against St. Louis.  Although Sandberg got 6 PAs with Philly in 1981, he really began his career at the start of 1982 with the Cubbies, and he hit his first home run in the Cubs 15th game of the season.  He also hit his second home run in that game!  So his first game with a homer in the majors was his first multi-homer game. 

• This was the only game in his career that Willie McGee hit for the cycle.  It was actually harder for McGee to get the homer portion than the triple portion. He had 94 career triples and 79 career homers.
  

• The Cubs outfield was Keith Moreland (rf), Bob Dernier (cf) and Gary "Sarge" Matthews (lf).  Tony Kubek described their arms as good, good and average, respectively.   I remember Matthews having a poor arm.  I checked his arm ratings, though, and he was in fact average, although he was otherwise not a good fielder.  I checked the other two guys.  Dernier was a decent outfielder, but his arm was average, not good.  Moreland was a poor outfielder, with a slightly below average arm.

• The game was won on a single by backup shortstop Dave Owen.  He was the last position player the Cubs had on the bench.  Dave was indicative of the 1980s shortstop.  Although taller than average (6'2"), he weighed only 170 pounds.  He had an open stance, with a sort of weak-armed look.  And he got weak-armed results.  He compiled only 155 plate appearances in four seasons of play with a miserable 533 OPS. He had absolutely no power or batting eye.  Must have been great on defense, right?  Nope, just average.

• Dave Owen was the least likely hero for the Cubs.  A Retrosheet search shows this was the only game winning RBI of his career.

• Dave's "little" brother Spike played for 13 seasons with five different clubs.  Spike was three years younger, and four inches shorter, but weighed the same.  He was known, at the time, for his defense, but his Total Zone rating has him at -23 runs for his career.  He was a weak hitter too (665 OPS), but managed in 1992 (729 OPS) and 1994 (840 OPS) to be fairly productive.  Unlike Dave, who was taken in the 10th round out of UT-Arlington, Spike was the 6th overall pick out of the storied University of Texas program.

• Spike also had only one game winning RBI in his career.  He was playing for the Expos against the Giants in a 1989 contest, when he singled to right center field off of Atlee Hammaker with two outs in the 9th to plate Mike Fitzgerald.  Actually, it was a single only because it was the game winner.  It was a deep fly to right center -- almost certainly a double or triple at any other stage of the game.
  

Dum (or not so Dumb) Things Said

1.  Dum:  In the Chicago/Milwaukee game Thursday, I was listening to the Brewers' telecast.  The color commentator (Bill Schroeder, I think) was discussing Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot, and their value to the Cubs.  He said "You're right.  Theriot and Fontenot can hit anywhere up and down the order, one to eight."

This, of course, is literally true.  They could also hit ninth.  So could every other player in the major leagues.  But how many teams in the majors would hit Theriot or Fontenot in the #3, #4 or #5 spots? 

2.  Not so Dumb:  In the Rays/Orioles game on Thursday, Andy Freed, the Rays radio play-by-play man said "There's Chris Hoiles, member of the Orioles hall of fame."  I scoffed.  I remembered Hoiles as a so-so hitter with a pretty short career.  How could he be in the O's HoF?  For about half of my life, the Orioles were one of the best teams in the league.  Hoiles played for them on the downswing.

Actually, Hoiles played for 10 seasons and compiled a 262/366/467 line (not park adjusted).  I can't scoff at an 833 OPS from a catcher.  Hoiles averaged about 1 win above average for his career -- at least at the plate -- and appeared to be an average and competent defensive player.  I can buy that he's in the Orioles hall of fame.  If Dempsey is, Hoiles ought to be.

Matt Wieters Facts

Baseball Prospectus gave Matt Wieters an incredible projection for someone with only 530 professional plate appearances in his career, none of it above AA ball.  BP's "deadly accurate" PECOTA projections have him at nearly 400 plate appearances in the majors this year, with a .311/.395/.546 slash line.  To put that in perspective, rising star (and teammate) Nick Markakis is projected for .286/.368/.465.  Superstar Carlos Beltran is projected at .293/.385/.513, for another frame of reference.

Ted Keith at SI reported this:

Indeed, Wieters seemed to be so blessed with ability that his teammates at Tech nicknamed him God after one especially heavenly performance against Miami in his freshman season, in which he put on a power display while playing pitcher, catcher and first base with equal skill.

There were more than 100 comments on the Baseball Think Factory site about Wieters' prowess, many of them in jest -- including one that said his PECOTA projection is so good, they are working on a WIETERS projection system.

And this:

Q: What's the difference between Matt Wieters and Superman?

A: Kryptonite can stop Superman. 

Or "Starting in 2009, Matt Wieters will have homefield advantage in the World Series."

And even better: "Matt Wieters took batting practice this morning. There were no survivors."


Matt Wieters is now the Chuck Norris of baseball.  Prompting my theft of these Chuck Norris facts:

• Matt Wieters can kill two stones with one bird.  (Particularly appropriate for an Oriole.)
• There is no evolution.  Only the divine creationism of Matt Wieters.
• A Matt Wieters home run is the preferred method of execution in 16 states.
• The grass is always greener on the other side of the infield, unless Matt Wieters has been there, and then it is blood red.
• There is an "I" in Wieters, but there is no team.  Not even close.
• If at first you don't succeed, you aren't Matt Wieters.
• Most people fear the Reaper.  Matt Wieters considers the Reaper a promising rookie.
• Matt Wieters doesn't chew tobacco.  He chews tin foil.
• Time waits for no man.  Unless that man is Matt Wieters.
• There are no steroids in baseball.  Just players that Matt Wieters has breathed on.
  
• Pitchers don't throw fastballs to Matt Wieters.  His gravitational pull yanks it out of their hands.

 

Opening Day Matchup (Sort of)

Tonight's Atlanta and Philly matchup is a made-for-tv game, but it counts.  Brett Myers is starting for the Phillies in place of Cole Hamels. Kelly Johnson is currently anticipated to be the Braves leadoff hitter.  So the 2009 baseball season will start with Myers v. Johnson.

Johnson has faced Myers 18 times, in 7 games.  Here are some quick facts about the batter-pitcher matchup:

• Tonight's catcher for the Phillies, Carlos Ruiz, was only the receiver for 2 of those plate appearances
• In 67% of those plate appearances the bases were empty
• In 11% of those plate appearances the bases were full
• In the first 13 plate appearances, Johnson was hitless, although he did walk once
• His line against Myers:  .176/.222/.412, with one RBI
• Johnson struck out in 41% of his at-bats against Myers
• Myers has thrown him 74 pitches, 64% of which are strikes.
  

Johnson hit first in the batting order in five of his plate appearances against Myers, but he only lead off the inning in one of them.  He struck out.

In their most interesting matchup, Johnson came to the plate in the bottom of the 8th, with Philadelphia leading 8-6. Willie Harris was at first, Matt Diaz at second and Yunel Escobar at third.  There was one out. 

When the bottom of the 8th began, the Phillies had an 8-2 lead and Tom Gordon was on the hill.   Chipper Jones lead off the inning with a double.  After Mark Teixeira flied out to right, McCann singled.  Jeff Francouer, not exactly known for his clutch hitting, hit a bloop single just out of the reach of Utley, scoring Chipper and moving McCann to second.  Cox pinch ran for McCann, sending in Chris Woodward.  Cox also pinch hit for his pitcher, with Scott Thorman.  Thorman singled to load the bases.

Charlie Manuel brought in Myers to face Yunel Escobar, with the score now 8-3.  Myers began by throwing a wild pitch, scoring Woodward and advancing Frenchy and Thorman.  Three more balls in a row, and Escobar was standing on first.

Bases loaded again, this time for Matt Diaz with the score 8-4.  Diaz hit an infield single, scoring Francouer.  Myers then walked Willie Harris to force in the sixth run and bring Kelly Johnson to the plate with the bases loaded and a chance to do some damage.  He started him with two balls, but Johnson swung at the third, fouling out to Abraham Nunez at third for the second out.

Myers then retired Chipper on seven pitches, when Jones flied to left.

It wasn't Myers' day, though.  The Braves won 9-8, as Myers had a hairy 9th inning too.  He struck out Teixeira and got Brayan Pena to ground out to first.  A team down by two, in the bottom of the 9th with two outs and no one on base, has a 1.7% chance of winning the game.  Better than nothing.

Myers allowed Francoeur to single -- another infield single, this time to shortstop.  Francouer moved to second on defensive indifference -- kind of surprising with the tying run at the plate.  Prado then singled with a weak topper to Myers' right -- but good enough to get him on base and move Francouer to third.  Escobar walked again, and Diaz came to the plate with the bases loaded for the second time in consecutive innings.

Diaz cleared the bases with a double to left field, and Atlanta took the victory.  Diaz racked up 4 RBI in the 8th and 9th innings, and he was only in the game as a pinch hitter.

Team Predictions

There's a great new site to keep track of MLB depth charts.  Using the data here, and the Lineup Analyzer at Baseball Musings, I estimated the number of runs each team would score based on the player's PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus.  Obviously each team won't have this full starting lineup in place every night, but this is just a fun exercise.  Also, I used a regressed version of the output from the Lineup Analyzer.  David Pinto found that it overestimates runs somewhat, so the output was plugged into the regression formula 1.055x -.3231.

Having determined the Runs Scored (RS), I needed a source for Runs Against (RA) so I used the team RAs from Baseball Prospectus, but scaled them down to account for the fact that my cumulative RS was lower than BP's projected RA.

With RA and RS, I used the xlsSports MLB Monte Carlo simulator and ran 1,000 seasons.  I used a standard deviation of .01 in the AL and .02 in the NL, based on the variation in runs scored by various lineups.  Changing a lineup in the AL can make about a 2 win difference, but changing a lineup in the NL can make a 4 win difference. Here are the results, showing the W-L records for the playoff teams, and games back for everyone else.

AL East               AL Central          AL West         
Yankees    101-61     Indians    86-76    Athletics  84-78
Red Sox     97-65     Tigers         5    Angels         4
Rays            9     White Sox      9    Mariners       8
Blue Jays      25     Twins         12    Rangers       14
Orioles        34     Royals        12

NL East               NL Central          NL West         
Mets        87-75     Cubs       97-65    Dodgers    93-69
Braves          1     Brewers    88-74    D-backs        3
Phillies        1     Cardinals     14    Giants        17
Nationals       7     Reds          20    Padres        18
Marlins        17     Astros        25    Rockies       21
                      Pirates       34

Worth mentioning that I docked the Yankees a month's worth of A-Rod, and docked the Twins a month's worth of Mauer.

I was surprised at the Orioles' performance. I thought it would be better than the Blue Jays. I was also surprised at the Angels coming in below .500. In the NL, I'm not sure I'm buying the Nats finishing only 7 games and two games shy of .500. I'm also surprised the Rockies are worse than the Padres and Giants. The current Giants lineup is projected to be (by a long shot) the worst offensive team in baseball.

For the playoffs, this would give us the Red Sox and Brewers as the wild card teams, each of whom is in the same division as the team with the best record.

The Division Series would be Athletics at Yankees, and Red Sox at Indians in the AL. Mets at Cubs, and Brewers at Dodgers in the NL. In 50 simulations of these series (a lower number because I had to do them manually):

Yankees beat the A's 80% of the time, most often in a three game sweep.
Red Sox beat the Indians 70% of the time, most often in four games.
Cubs beat the Mets 60% of the time, most often in four games.
Dodgers beat the Brewers 64% of the time, most often in five games.

The ALCS would play out as Red Sox vs. Yankees, and Dodgers vs. Cubs. In 50 sims of those:

Yankees beat the Red Sox 58% of the time, most often in six games.
Cubs beat the Dodgers 54% of the time, most often in six games.

That gives us a Cubs-Yankees World Series. I ran the sims with the AL having the home field advantage, since it typically wins the All-Star game and is the stronger league right now. In 50 sims, the Yankees destroyed the Cubs, winning the series 74% of the time, most often in a full seven game series.

The sleeper teams are the Braves and Diamondbacks in the NL, and the Rays and Angels in the AL, if you can consider two teams from last year's playoffs "sleepers". For a real sleeper, see the Tigers.

The only teams with absolutely no chance of making the playoffs in the 1,000 season sim were the Orioles and the Pirates.