Monday, August 01, 2005

Guillen and RFK

So Vinny Castilla and Jose Guillen think they are getting gipped in RFK Stadium and it will affect contract negotiations. See http://sports-law.blogspot.com/2005/07/rfk-stadiums-false-dimensions-are.html. Guillen said "I should have 29 homers. I should be up there with Derrek Lee, Andruw Jones. You see the balls I'm hitting in those ballparks away from here. I just want to find out the truth on my own."




Using the methods described in Bill James' book "Win Shares", the Home Run Park Adjustment for Washington Nationals players would be .785, meaning you'd divide a player's home runs by that amount. Guillen has 19 home runs, so with the adjustment, he'd have about 24 if he played in neutral parks all the time (including on the road). However, only 1 of those extra 5 home runs would be at RFK (RFK itself actually suppresses home runs by half)...the others would come in road parks.




For comparison, the Braves have a Home Run Park Adjustment of .963, so Andruw Jones would have 33 home runs if he played exclusively in neutral parks. The Cubs have a Home Run Park Adjustment of 1.025, so Derrek Lee would have 31 home runs if he played exclusively in neutral parks. Guillen is not even close.




It is easy to see why Guillen doesn't like RFK...he only has 1 home run there, which is tied for 8th best on his team, even though he is the team's best hitter. But why, when the Nationals have gone into a nosedive and have lost the lead in the NL East, is he complaining about whether his personal home run totals are high enough at home? Maybe he should be worrying about the Nationals making the playoffs. In short, he is a head case.




Last year Guillen was the best hitter for the Angels. They were in a pennant race as the season wound down. They suspended Guillen for undisclosed reasons, just when they needed him most. The Angels made the playoffs, but did not put Guillen on the playoff roster and effectively released him. How much of a clubhouse problem must Guillen have been? He was their best hitter, and rather than fine him or something, the Angels basically said "You are such a cancer to this team, we are kicking you off the team, right in the thick of the playoff chase."